@disclosureos/scoring 1.0.0 → 1.1.0

package/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -4,11 +4,34 @@ All notable changes to `@disclosureos/scoring` are documented here. The format i
 based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.1.0/) and this project
 adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0.html).
 
+## 1.1.0
+
+### Minor Changes
+
+- 19bad3d: Add `calibrationTrust` — calibration provenance from published sensor manifests
+  (`@disclosureos/instruments`) as a scoring input. Builds an `evaluatorWeight`
+  policy that credits claims whose sensor evidence resolves (via
+  `SensorReading.sensorRef`) to a manifest entry with real calibration
+  provenance, under an overridable `CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS` gradient
+  (`unresolved`/`none` 1.0 baseline → `documented` 1.25). Conservative by
+  default: unresolved sensors are never penalized, and only the consensus point
+  shifts — `range` and `contested` still report the honest spread across claims.
+
+### Patch Changes
+
+- Updated dependencies [b373962]
+- Updated dependencies [e6ff99c]
+  - @disclosureos/instruments@1.0.0
+  - @disclosureos/records@1.1.0
+  - @disclosureos/observables@1.0.1
+  - @disclosureos/origins@1.0.1
+
 ## 1.0.0
 
 Initial public release — the Scoring layer.
 
 ### Added
+
 - `getCompleteness` (how well-documented a record is) and `score` /
   `rankByCompellingness` (how anomalous a case is).
 - Scoring over arrays of competing claims: results include a `range` (spread across

package/README.md

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ orthogonal measures:
 
 ## The DisclosureOS model
 
-DisclosureOS is a **five-part standard**. Each part answers one question about an
+DisclosureOS is a **six-part standard**. Each part answers one question about an
 observation; `@disclosureos/schema` binds the package-owned pieces into one portable
 contract (a single TS type + JSON Schema + non-stripping parse).
 
@@ -24,6 +24,7 @@ contract (a single TS type + JSON Schema + non-stripping parse).
 | **Origins** | `@disclosureos/origins` | *What might explain it?* |
 | **Claims** | `@disclosureos/records/shared` | *Who assessed it, why, and on what evidence?* |
 | **Scoring** | `@disclosureos/scoring` | *How complete / compelling is the case?* |
+| **Instruments** | `@disclosureos/instruments` | *What hardware produced the data?* |
 
 Supporting packages: **`@disclosureos/schema`** (the portable contract that composes the
 package-owned pieces), **`@disclosureos/cli`** (tooling), and **`@disclosureos/examples`**
@@ -33,8 +34,9 @@ package-owned pieces), **`@disclosureos/cli`** (tooling), and **`@disclosureos/e
 
 Unlike `observables` and `origins`, scoring **only consumes** the foundation — it
 reads `observableAssessments` and `origin` but adds no slot to `Observation`. It
-depends on `@disclosureos/records`, `@disclosureos/observables`, and
-`@disclosureos/origins`, so importing it gives you those slots typed automatically.
+depends on `@disclosureos/records`, `@disclosureos/observables`,
+`@disclosureos/origins`, and `@disclosureos/instruments`, so importing it gives
+you those slots typed automatically.
 
 > **See it end to end.** [`examples/golden-path.ts`](../../examples/golden-path.ts)
 > takes one observation through every layer — records → observables → origins → scoring,
@@ -68,6 +70,28 @@ Because evaluative slots hold **arrays of competing claims**, `score()` reports
 `range` (the spread across claims) and a `contested` flag when evaluators disagree —
 not just a single point estimate.
 
+## Instrument trust (calibration provenance)
+
+`calibrationTrust` turns published sensor manifests
+([`@disclosureos/instruments`](../disclosureos-instruments)) into a scoring
+input. It builds an `evaluatorWeight` policy that credits claims whose sensor
+evidence resolves — via `SensorReading.sensorRef` — to a manifest entry with
+real calibration provenance (`in_practice` / `documented` earn the most; see
+`CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS`).
+
+```typescript
+import { score, calibrationTrust } from '@disclosureos/scoring';
+
+const result = score(observation, {
+  evaluatorWeight: calibrationTrust(observation, [navyManifest]),
+});
+```
+
+The default gradient is deliberately conservative: unresolved sensors keep the
+1.0 baseline (records that predate manifests are never penalized), and like
+every `evaluatorWeight` policy it shifts only the consensus point — `range` and
+`contested` still report the honest spread of what evaluators asserted.
+
 ## Subpath exports
 
 | Subpath | Contents |

package/dist/compellingness/index.d.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,56 @@
 import { z } from 'zod';
 import { Observation } from '@disclosureos/records';
 import { AssessmentLevel } from '@disclosureos/observables';
+import { CalibrationStatus, SensorManifest } from '@disclosureos/instruments';
+
+/**
+ * Trust multiplier per calibration maturity level, plus the `unresolved`
+ * baseline for claims whose sensor evidence does not resolve to a manifest
+ * entry (no `sensorRef`, unknown org, unknown sensor, or no calibration block).
+ */
+type CalibrationTrustWeights = Record<CalibrationStatus | 'unresolved', number>;
+/**
+ * Conservative default gradient: instruments with real calibration provenance
+ * earn *credit* over unresolved sensors — nothing is ever penalized below the
+ * baseline, so adopting the hook can only reward organizations that publish
+ * manifests, never punish records that predate them.
+ *
+ * @experimental The shape is stable; these specific values are a reference
+ * policy that may be re-tuned in a minor release. Pin your own `weights` via
+ * {@link CalibrationTrustOptions} if you need stable numbers.
+ */
+declare const CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS: CalibrationTrustWeights;
+interface CalibrationTrustOptions {
+    /** Override the trust gradient (defaults to {@link CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS}). */
+    weights?: CalibrationTrustWeights;
+    /**
+     * A base trust policy composed (multiplied) with the calibration credit —
+     * e.g. an evaluator-identity policy. Defaults to uniform 1.0.
+     */
+    evaluatorWeight?: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number;
+}
+/**
+ * Build an `evaluatorWeight` hook (see `ScoreOptions.evaluatorWeight`) that
+ * credits claims backed by instruments with published calibration provenance.
+ *
+ * Resolution chain, per claim: `evidenceRefs` (`"sensor:<id>"`) → the
+ * observation's `sensorEvidence.sensors[]` reading → its `sensorRef`
+ * (`"<org-slug>:<sensor-id>"`) → the matching manifest entry's
+ * `calibration.status`. When a claim cites several sensor readings, the
+ * strongest instrument backing wins. Claims with no resolvable sensor
+ * evidence get the `unresolved` baseline.
+ *
+ * Like every `evaluatorWeight` policy, this shifts only the consensus point
+ * estimate — `range` and `contested` still report the honest spread of what
+ * evaluators actually asserted.
+ *
+ * ```ts
+ * const result = score(observation, {
+ *   evaluatorWeight: calibrationTrust(observation, [navyManifest]),
+ * });
+ * ```
+ */
+declare function calibrationTrust(observation: Observation, manifests: readonly SensorManifest[], options?: CalibrationTrustOptions): (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number;
 
 /** Methodology version stamped on every {@link ScoreResult}. Bump on weight/formula changes. */
 declare const SCORING_VERSION: "2.0.0";
@@ -96,4 +146,4 @@ interface RankedObservation<T extends Observation = Observation> {
  */
 declare function rankByCompellingness<T extends Observation>(observations: readonly T[], options?: ScoreOptions): RankedObservation<T>[];
 
-export { ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS, type CompellingnessWeights, CompellingnessWeightsSchema, DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES, DEFAULT_WEIGHTS, type EvaluatorWeightInput, type RankedObservation, SCORING_VERSION, type ScoreOptions, type ScoreResult, ScoreResultSchema, rankByCompellingness, score };
+export { ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS, CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS, type CalibrationTrustOptions, type CalibrationTrustWeights, type CompellingnessWeights, CompellingnessWeightsSchema, DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES, DEFAULT_WEIGHTS, type EvaluatorWeightInput, type RankedObservation, SCORING_VERSION, type ScoreOptions, type ScoreResult, ScoreResultSchema, calibrationTrust, rankByCompellingness, score };

package/dist/compellingness/index.js

@@ -1,6 +1,40 @@
 import { z } from 'zod';
 import '@disclosureos/observables';
 import '@disclosureos/origins';
+import { parseSensorRef, parseEvidenceRef } from '@disclosureos/records/shared';
+
+// src/compellingness/index.ts
+var CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS = {
+  unresolved: 1,
+  none: 1,
+  candidate_identified: 1.05,
+  in_practice: 1.15,
+  documented: 1.25
+};
+function calibrationTrust(observation, manifests, options) {
+  const weights = options?.weights ?? CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS;
+  const base = options?.evaluatorWeight ?? (() => 1);
+  const statusBySensorId = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  for (const reading of observation.sensorEvidence?.sensors ?? []) {
+    if (!reading.sensorRef) continue;
+    const ref = parseSensorRef(reading.sensorRef);
+    if (!ref) continue;
+    const entry = manifests.find((manifest) => manifest.orgSlug === ref.orgSlug)?.sensors.find((sensor) => sensor.id === ref.sensorId);
+    const status = entry?.calibration?.status;
+    if (status) statusBySensorId.set(reading.id, status);
+  }
+  return (claim) => {
+    let credit = weights.unresolved;
+    for (const evidence of claim.evidenceRefs ?? []) {
+      const parsed = parseEvidenceRef(evidence);
+      if (!parsed || parsed.kind !== "sensor") continue;
+      const status = statusBySensorId.get(parsed.id);
+      const weight = status === void 0 ? weights.unresolved : weights[status];
+      if (weight > credit) credit = weight;
+    }
+    return base(claim) * credit;
+  };
+}
 
 // src/compellingness/index.ts
 var SCORING_VERSION = "2.0.0";
@@ -131,6 +165,6 @@ function rankByCompellingness(observations, options) {
   return observations.map((observation) => ({ observation, result: score(observation, options) })).sort((a, b) => b.result.score - a.result.score);
 }
 
-export { ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS, CompellingnessWeightsSchema, DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES, DEFAULT_WEIGHTS, SCORING_VERSION, ScoreResultSchema, rankByCompellingness, score };
+export { ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS, CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS, CompellingnessWeightsSchema, DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES, DEFAULT_WEIGHTS, SCORING_VERSION, ScoreResultSchema, calibrationTrust, rankByCompellingness, score };
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

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{ z } from 'zod';\nimport type { Observation } from '@disclosureos/records';\nimport type { AssessmentLevel, ObservableClaim } from '@disclosureos/observables';\nimport type { OriginClaim } from '@disclosureos/origins';\n// Side-effect imports register the `observableAssessments` and `origin` slots on\n// `Observation` via module augmentation, so they are typed below.\nimport '@disclosureos/observables';\nimport '@disclosureos/origins';\n\n/** Methodology version stamped on every {@link ScoreResult}. Bump on weight/formula changes. */\nexport const SCORING_VERSION = '2.0.0' as const;\n\n/**\n * Ordinal anomaly strength per evidentiary tier. A `confirmed` signal counts\n * fully; `not_indicated` contributes nothing. Multiplied by the assessment's\n * confidence (default 1 when unstated). Exported so consumers can render the\n * methodology; override semantics may come in a future minor release.\n */\nexport const ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS: Record<AssessmentLevel, number> = {\n  not_indicated: 0,\n  reported: 0.25,\n  documented: 0.5,\n  measured: 0.75,\n  confirmed: 1,\n};\n\n/**\n * OCS id prefixes treated as prosaic (well-explained). A confident *prosaic*\n * classification means the case is explained, so it contributes no anomaly\n * signal. Overridable per {@link score} call. Default is the OCS \"Prosaic\"\n * branch (`1.1.1`).\n */\nexport const DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES: readonly string[] = ['1.1.1'];\n\nexport const CompellingnessWeightsSchema = z\n  .object({\n    technology: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the technology-anomaly signal.'),\n    biologics: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the biologics-anomaly signal.'),\n    origin: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the (non-prosaic) origin-confidence signal.'),\n  })\n  .meta({ id: 'CompellingnessWeights' })\n  .describe('Relative weights for the compellingness components. Need not sum to 1 — normalized internally.');\n\nexport type CompellingnessWeights = z.infer<typeof CompellingnessWeightsSchema>;\n\n/**\n * Fixed default weights, exposed as a transparent, overridable data object (not a\n * config system). Partners can propose alternate weight sets without an API change.\n *\n * @experimental The *shape* (`CompellingnessWeights`) is stable, but these specific\n * default values are a reference methodology that may be re-tuned in a minor release.\n * Pin your own `weights` via {@link ScoreOptions} if you need stable numbers.\n */\nexport const DEFAULT_WEIGHTS: CompellingnessWeights = {\n  technology: 0.45,\n  biologics: 0.35,\n  origin: 0.2,\n};\n\nexport const ScoreResultSchema = z\n  .object({\n    score: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Overall compellingness (consensus point estimate), 0–1.'),\n    range: z\n      .object({\n        low: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Most-skeptical reading of the strongest-anomaly signal across competing claims.'),\n        high: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Most-anomalous reading of the strongest-anomaly signal across competing claims.'),\n      })\n      .describe(\n        'Spread of the score across competing claims — wide range signals disagreement. Bounds are '\n        + 'computed per-signal under the same strongest-anomaly (max) reduction as the point estimate, '\n        + 'not a global min/max over every claim.',\n      ),\n    contested: z\n      .boolean()\n      .describe('True when claims disagree on *direction* (some assert anomaly, some assert none).'),\n    components: z\n      .object({\n        technology: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n        biologics: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n        origin: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n      })\n      .describe('Per-signal consensus contributions before weighting.'),\n    weights: CompellingnessWeightsSchema,\n    scoringVersion: z.string().describe('Methodology version that produced this score.'),\n  })\n  .meta({ id: 'ScoreResult' })\n  .describe('A reference compellingness score for an observation, with a contestedness range.');\n\nexport type ScoreResult = z.infer<typeof ScoreResultSchema>;\n\n/** The minimal claim shape the trust hook sees (it never needs the full body). */\nexport type EvaluatorWeightInput = {\n  evaluatedBy?: string | undefined;\n  evidenceRefs?: string[] | undefined;\n};\n\nexport interface ScoreOptions {\n  weights?: CompellingnessWeights;\n  /** Override the prosaic OCS prefixes (defaults to {@link DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES}). */\n  prosaicPrefixes?: readonly string[];\n  /**\n   * Trust applied to each claim's vote in the consensus point estimate (default\n   * 1.0 — uniform). This is where a future trust policy (e.g.\n   * weighting verified/official evaluators higher) plugs in here without changing\n   * the formula. Range/contestedness are NOT affected — they report the honest\n   * spread of what evaluators actually asserted.\n   *\n   * @experimental The hook signature is stable, but the default trust *policy*\n   * (uniform 1.0) is deliberately unopinionated and is a separate, ongoing design\n   * task; a future built-in policy may change the default.\n   */\n  evaluatorWeight?: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number;\n}\n\nconst UNIFORM_TRUST = (): number => 1;\n\nfunction isProsaic(id: string, prefixes: readonly string[]): boolean {\n  return prefixes.some((p) => id === p || id.startsWith(`${p}.`));\n}\n\nfunction round(n: number): number {\n  return Math.round(n * 1e4) / 1e4;\n}\n\ntype Weighted = { magnitude: number; weight: number };\n\ninterface ClaimStats {\n  /** Trust-weighted mean magnitude (the consensus point). */\n  point: number;\n  /** Min asserted magnitude (most skeptical). */\n  low: number;\n  /** Max asserted magnitude (most anomalous). */\n  high: number;\n  /** Claims disagree on direction (some > 0, some === 0). */\n  contested: boolean;\n}\n\nconst EMPTY_STATS: ClaimStats = { point: 0, low: 0, high: 0, contested: false };\n\nfunction reduceClaims(weighted: Weighted[]): ClaimStats {\n  if (weighted.length === 0) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  let wsum = 0;\n  let msum = 0;\n  let low = Infinity;\n  let high = -Infinity;\n  let anyAnomaly = false;\n  let anyNone = false;\n  for (const { magnitude, weight } of weighted) {\n    wsum += weight;\n    msum += magnitude * weight;\n    if (magnitude < low) low = magnitude;\n    if (magnitude > high) high = magnitude;\n    if (magnitude > 0) anyAnomaly = true;\n    else anyNone = true;\n  }\n  return {\n    point: wsum > 0 ? msum / wsum : 0,\n    low,\n    high,\n    contested: anyAnomaly && anyNone,\n  };\n}\n\n/** Asserted anomaly magnitude of one observable claim, in [0,1]. */\nfunction observableMagnitude(claim: ObservableClaim): number {\n  return ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS[claim.level] * (claim.confidence ?? 1);\n}\n\n/**\n * Strongest established anomaly within a domain — the \"is there *any* anomaly?\" reduction.\n * `point`/`low`/`high` are each a **max across observables** of that observable's claim-list\n * stat. So `low` is \"the most-skeptical reading of the strongest-anomaly observable,\" not a\n * global floor across all observables — consistent with the point estimate's max reduction.\n */\nfunction domainStats(\n  group: Partial<Record<string, ObservableClaim[]>> | undefined,\n  evaluatorWeight: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number,\n): ClaimStats {\n  if (!group) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  let point = 0;\n  let low = 0;\n  let high = 0;\n  let contested = false;\n  for (const claims of Object.values(group)) {\n    if (!claims || claims.length === 0) continue;\n    const weighted = claims.map<Weighted>((c) => ({\n      magnitude: observableMagnitude(c),\n      weight: (c.confidence ?? 1) * evaluatorWeight(c),\n    }));\n    const stats = reduceClaims(weighted);\n    if (stats.point > point) point = stats.point;\n    if (stats.low > low) low = stats.low;\n    if (stats.high > high) high = stats.high;\n    if (stats.contested) contested = true;\n  }\n  return { point, low, high, contested };\n}\n\n/** Confidence in a *non-prosaic* origin, reduced across competing classifications. */\nfunction originStats(\n  origin: OriginClaim[] | undefined,\n  prefixes: readonly string[],\n  evaluatorWeight: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number,\n): ClaimStats {\n  if (!origin || origin.length === 0) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  const weighted = origin.map<Weighted>((c) => ({\n    magnitude: isProsaic(c.primaryHypothesis, prefixes) ? 0 : c.confidence,\n    weight: c.confidence * evaluatorWeight(c),\n  }));\n  return reduceClaims(weighted);\n}\n\n/**\n * Reference compellingness scorer. Combines the strongest technology- and\n * biologics-anomaly signals (from `observableAssessments`) with the confidence in\n * a *non-prosaic* origin classification (from `origin`), under transparent,\n * overridable weights. Each slot is a *list* of competing claims, so the scorer\n * reports a consensus `score`, the `range` of readings across claims, and whether\n * the case is `contested` (evaluators disagree on direction). This answers \"how\n * strongly does this case bear on the two public questions — anomalous\n * tech/biologics, and a non-mundane origin?\" — distinct from completeness.\n */\nexport function score(observation: Observation, options?: ScoreOptions): ScoreResult {\n  const weights = options?.weights ?? DEFAULT_WEIGHTS;\n  const prosaicPrefixes = options?.prosaicPrefixes ?? DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES;\n  const evaluatorWeight = options?.evaluatorWeight ?? UNIFORM_TRUST;\n\n  const assessments = observation.observableAssessments;\n  const technology = domainStats(assessments?.technology, evaluatorWeight);\n  const biologics = domainStats(assessments?.biologics, evaluatorWeight);\n  const origin = originStats(observation.origin, prosaicPrefixes, evaluatorWeight);\n\n  const totalWeight = weights.technology + weights.biologics + weights.origin;\n  const combine = (t: number, b: number, o: number): number =>\n    totalWeight > 0\n      ? (t * weights.technology + b * weights.biologics + o * weights.origin) / totalWeight\n      : 0;\n\n  return {\n    score: round(combine(technology.point, biologics.point, origin.point)),\n    range: {\n      low: round(combine(technology.low, biologics.low, origin.low)),\n      high: round(combine(technology.high, biologics.high, origin.high)),\n    },\n    contested: technology.contested || biologics.contested || origin.contested,\n    components: {\n      technology: round(technology.point),\n      biologics: round(biologics.point),\n      origin: round(origin.point),\n    },\n    weights,\n    scoringVersion: SCORING_VERSION,\n  };\n}\n\nexport interface RankedObservation<T extends Observation = Observation> {\n  observation: T;\n  result: ScoreResult;\n}\n\n/**\n * Score a set of observations and return them sorted most-compelling first — the\n * \"float the strongest cases to the top\" use case.\n */\nexport function rankByCompellingness<T extends Observation>(\n  observations: readonly T[],\n  options?: ScoreOptions,\n): RankedObservation<T>[] {\n  return observations\n    .map((observation) => ({ observation, result: score(observation, options) }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.result.score - a.result.score);\n}\n"]}
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type { Observation } from '@disclosureos/records';\nimport { parseEvidenceRef, parseSensorRef } from '@disclosureos/records/shared';\nimport type { CalibrationStatus, SensorManifest } from '@disclosureos/instruments';\nimport type { EvaluatorWeightInput } from './index';\n\n/**\n * Trust multiplier per calibration maturity level, plus the `unresolved`\n * baseline for claims whose sensor evidence does not resolve to a manifest\n * entry (no `sensorRef`, unknown org, unknown sensor, or no calibration block).\n */\nexport type CalibrationTrustWeights = Record<CalibrationStatus | 'unresolved', number>;\n\n/**\n * Conservative default gradient: instruments with real calibration provenance\n * earn *credit* over unresolved sensors — nothing is ever penalized below the\n * baseline, so adopting the hook can only reward organizations that publish\n * manifests, never punish records that predate them.\n *\n * @experimental The shape is stable; these specific values are a reference\n * policy that may be re-tuned in a minor release. Pin your own `weights` via\n * {@link CalibrationTrustOptions} if you need stable numbers.\n */\nexport const CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS: CalibrationTrustWeights = {\n  unresolved: 1,\n  none: 1,\n  candidate_identified: 1.05,\n  in_practice: 1.15,\n  documented: 1.25,\n};\n\nexport interface CalibrationTrustOptions {\n  /** Override the trust gradient (defaults to {@link CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS}). */\n  weights?: CalibrationTrustWeights;\n  /**\n   * A base trust policy composed (multiplied) with the calibration credit —\n   * e.g. an evaluator-identity policy. Defaults to uniform 1.0.\n   */\n  evaluatorWeight?: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number;\n}\n\n/**\n * Build an `evaluatorWeight` hook (see `ScoreOptions.evaluatorWeight`) that\n * credits claims backed by instruments with published calibration provenance.\n *\n * Resolution chain, per claim: `evidenceRefs` (`\"sensor:<id>\"`) → the\n * observation's `sensorEvidence.sensors[]` reading → its `sensorRef`\n * (`\"<org-slug>:<sensor-id>\"`) → the matching manifest entry's\n * `calibration.status`. When a claim cites several sensor readings, the\n * strongest instrument backing wins. Claims with no resolvable sensor\n * evidence get the `unresolved` baseline.\n *\n * Like every `evaluatorWeight` policy, this shifts only the consensus point\n * estimate — `range` and `contested` still report the honest spread of what\n * evaluators actually asserted.\n *\n * ```ts\n * const result = score(observation, {\n *   evaluatorWeight: calibrationTrust(observation, [navyManifest]),\n * });\n * ```\n */\nexport function calibrationTrust(\n  observation: Observation,\n  manifests: readonly SensorManifest[],\n  options?: CalibrationTrustOptions,\n): (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number {\n  const weights = options?.weights ?? CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS;\n  const base = options?.evaluatorWeight ?? ((): number => 1);\n\n  // Pre-resolve each in-record sensor reading to its manifest calibration status.\n  const statusBySensorId = new Map<string, CalibrationStatus>();\n  for (const reading of observation.sensorEvidence?.sensors ?? []) {\n    if (!reading.sensorRef) continue;\n    const ref = parseSensorRef(reading.sensorRef);\n    if (!ref) continue;\n    const entry = manifests\n      .find((manifest) => manifest.orgSlug === ref.orgSlug)\n      ?.sensors.find((sensor) => sensor.id === ref.sensorId);\n    const status = entry?.calibration?.status;\n    if (status) statusBySensorId.set(reading.id, status);\n  }\n\n  return (claim) => {\n    let credit = weights.unresolved;\n    for (const evidence of claim.evidenceRefs ?? []) {\n      const parsed = parseEvidenceRef(evidence);\n      if (!parsed || parsed.kind !== 'sensor') continue;\n      const status = statusBySensorId.get(parsed.id);\n      const weight = status === undefined ? weights.unresolved : weights[status];\n      if (weight > credit) credit = weight;\n    }\n    return base(claim) * credit;\n  };\n}\n","import { z } from 'zod';\nimport type { Observation } from '@disclosureos/records';\nimport type { AssessmentLevel, ObservableClaim } from '@disclosureos/observables';\nimport type { OriginClaim } from '@disclosureos/origins';\n// Side-effect imports register the `observableAssessments` and `origin` slots on\n// `Observation` via module augmentation, so they are typed below.\nimport '@disclosureos/observables';\nimport '@disclosureos/origins';\n\nexport { calibrationTrust, CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS } from './calibration';\nexport type { CalibrationTrustWeights, CalibrationTrustOptions } from './calibration';\n\n/** Methodology version stamped on every {@link ScoreResult}. Bump on weight/formula changes. */\nexport const SCORING_VERSION = '2.0.0' as const;\n\n/**\n * Ordinal anomaly strength per evidentiary tier. A `confirmed` signal counts\n * fully; `not_indicated` contributes nothing. Multiplied by the assessment's\n * confidence (default 1 when unstated). Exported so consumers can render the\n * methodology; override semantics may come in a future minor release.\n */\nexport const ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS: Record<AssessmentLevel, number> = {\n  not_indicated: 0,\n  reported: 0.25,\n  documented: 0.5,\n  measured: 0.75,\n  confirmed: 1,\n};\n\n/**\n * OCS id prefixes treated as prosaic (well-explained). A confident *prosaic*\n * classification means the case is explained, so it contributes no anomaly\n * signal. Overridable per {@link score} call. Default is the OCS \"Prosaic\"\n * branch (`1.1.1`).\n */\nexport const DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES: readonly string[] = ['1.1.1'];\n\nexport const CompellingnessWeightsSchema = z\n  .object({\n    technology: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the technology-anomaly signal.'),\n    biologics: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the biologics-anomaly signal.'),\n    origin: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the (non-prosaic) origin-confidence signal.'),\n  })\n  .meta({ id: 'CompellingnessWeights' })\n  .describe('Relative weights for the compellingness components. Need not sum to 1 — normalized internally.');\n\nexport type CompellingnessWeights = z.infer<typeof CompellingnessWeightsSchema>;\n\n/**\n * Fixed default weights, exposed as a transparent, overridable data object (not a\n * config system). Partners can propose alternate weight sets without an API change.\n *\n * @experimental The *shape* (`CompellingnessWeights`) is stable, but these specific\n * default values are a reference methodology that may be re-tuned in a minor release.\n * Pin your own `weights` via {@link ScoreOptions} if you need stable numbers.\n */\nexport const DEFAULT_WEIGHTS: CompellingnessWeights = {\n  technology: 0.45,\n  biologics: 0.35,\n  origin: 0.2,\n};\n\nexport const ScoreResultSchema = z\n  .object({\n    score: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Overall compellingness (consensus point estimate), 0–1.'),\n    range: z\n      .object({\n        low: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Most-skeptical reading of the strongest-anomaly signal across competing claims.'),\n        high: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Most-anomalous reading of the strongest-anomaly signal across competing claims.'),\n      })\n      .describe(\n        'Spread of the score across competing claims — wide range signals disagreement. Bounds are '\n        + 'computed per-signal under the same strongest-anomaly (max) reduction as the point estimate, '\n        + 'not a global min/max over every claim.',\n      ),\n    contested: z\n      .boolean()\n      .describe('True when claims disagree on *direction* (some assert anomaly, some assert none).'),\n    components: z\n      .object({\n        technology: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n        biologics: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n        origin: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n      })\n      .describe('Per-signal consensus contributions before weighting.'),\n    weights: CompellingnessWeightsSchema,\n    scoringVersion: z.string().describe('Methodology version that produced this score.'),\n  })\n  .meta({ id: 'ScoreResult' })\n  .describe('A reference compellingness score for an observation, with a contestedness range.');\n\nexport type ScoreResult = z.infer<typeof ScoreResultSchema>;\n\n/** The minimal claim shape the trust hook sees (it never needs the full body). */\nexport type EvaluatorWeightInput = {\n  evaluatedBy?: string | undefined;\n  evidenceRefs?: string[] | undefined;\n};\n\nexport interface ScoreOptions {\n  weights?: CompellingnessWeights;\n  /** Override the prosaic OCS prefixes (defaults to {@link DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES}). */\n  prosaicPrefixes?: readonly string[];\n  /**\n   * Trust applied to each claim's vote in the consensus point estimate (default\n   * 1.0 — uniform). This is where a future trust policy (e.g.\n   * weighting verified/official evaluators higher) plugs in here without changing\n   * the formula. Range/contestedness are NOT affected — they report the honest\n   * spread of what evaluators actually asserted.\n   *\n   * @experimental The hook signature is stable, but the default trust *policy*\n   * (uniform 1.0) is deliberately unopinionated and is a separate, ongoing design\n   * task; a future built-in policy may change the default.\n   */\n  evaluatorWeight?: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number;\n}\n\nconst UNIFORM_TRUST = (): number => 1;\n\nfunction isProsaic(id: string, prefixes: readonly string[]): boolean {\n  return prefixes.some((p) => id === p || id.startsWith(`${p}.`));\n}\n\nfunction round(n: number): number {\n  return Math.round(n * 1e4) / 1e4;\n}\n\ntype Weighted = { magnitude: number; weight: number };\n\ninterface ClaimStats {\n  /** Trust-weighted mean magnitude (the consensus point). */\n  point: number;\n  /** Min asserted magnitude (most skeptical). */\n  low: number;\n  /** Max asserted magnitude (most anomalous). */\n  high: number;\n  /** Claims disagree on direction (some > 0, some === 0). */\n  contested: boolean;\n}\n\nconst EMPTY_STATS: ClaimStats = { point: 0, low: 0, high: 0, contested: false };\n\nfunction reduceClaims(weighted: Weighted[]): ClaimStats {\n  if (weighted.length === 0) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  let wsum = 0;\n  let msum = 0;\n  let low = Infinity;\n  let high = -Infinity;\n  let anyAnomaly = false;\n  let anyNone = false;\n  for (const { magnitude, weight } of weighted) {\n    wsum += weight;\n    msum += magnitude * weight;\n    if (magnitude < low) low = magnitude;\n    if (magnitude > high) high = magnitude;\n    if (magnitude > 0) anyAnomaly = true;\n    else anyNone = true;\n  }\n  return {\n    point: wsum > 0 ? msum / wsum : 0,\n    low,\n    high,\n    contested: anyAnomaly && anyNone,\n  };\n}\n\n/** Asserted anomaly magnitude of one observable claim, in [0,1]. */\nfunction observableMagnitude(claim: ObservableClaim): number {\n  return ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS[claim.level] * (claim.confidence ?? 1);\n}\n\n/**\n * Strongest established anomaly within a domain — the \"is there *any* anomaly?\" reduction.\n * `point`/`low`/`high` are each a **max across observables** of that observable's claim-list\n * stat. So `low` is \"the most-skeptical reading of the strongest-anomaly observable,\" not a\n * global floor across all observables — consistent with the point estimate's max reduction.\n */\nfunction domainStats(\n  group: Partial<Record<string, ObservableClaim[]>> | undefined,\n  evaluatorWeight: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number,\n): ClaimStats {\n  if (!group) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  let point = 0;\n  let low = 0;\n  let high = 0;\n  let contested = false;\n  for (const claims of Object.values(group)) {\n    if (!claims || claims.length === 0) continue;\n    const weighted = claims.map<Weighted>((c) => ({\n      magnitude: observableMagnitude(c),\n      weight: (c.confidence ?? 1) * evaluatorWeight(c),\n    }));\n    const stats = reduceClaims(weighted);\n    if (stats.point > point) point = stats.point;\n    if (stats.low > low) low = stats.low;\n    if (stats.high > high) high = stats.high;\n    if (stats.contested) contested = true;\n  }\n  return { point, low, high, contested };\n}\n\n/** Confidence in a *non-prosaic* origin, reduced across competing classifications. */\nfunction originStats(\n  origin: OriginClaim[] | undefined,\n  prefixes: readonly string[],\n  evaluatorWeight: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number,\n): ClaimStats {\n  if (!origin || origin.length === 0) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  const weighted = origin.map<Weighted>((c) => ({\n    magnitude: isProsaic(c.primaryHypothesis, prefixes) ? 0 : c.confidence,\n    weight: c.confidence * evaluatorWeight(c),\n  }));\n  return reduceClaims(weighted);\n}\n\n/**\n * Reference compellingness scorer. Combines the strongest technology- and\n * biologics-anomaly signals (from `observableAssessments`) with the confidence in\n * a *non-prosaic* origin classification (from `origin`), under transparent,\n * overridable weights. Each slot is a *list* of competing claims, so the scorer\n * reports a consensus `score`, the `range` of readings across claims, and whether\n * the case is `contested` (evaluators disagree on direction). This answers \"how\n * strongly does this case bear on the two public questions — anomalous\n * tech/biologics, and a non-mundane origin?\" — distinct from completeness.\n */\nexport function score(observation: Observation, options?: ScoreOptions): ScoreResult {\n  const weights = options?.weights ?? DEFAULT_WEIGHTS;\n  const prosaicPrefixes = options?.prosaicPrefixes ?? DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES;\n  const evaluatorWeight = options?.evaluatorWeight ?? UNIFORM_TRUST;\n\n  const assessments = observation.observableAssessments;\n  const technology = domainStats(assessments?.technology, evaluatorWeight);\n  const biologics = domainStats(assessments?.biologics, evaluatorWeight);\n  const origin = originStats(observation.origin, prosaicPrefixes, evaluatorWeight);\n\n  const totalWeight = weights.technology + weights.biologics + weights.origin;\n  const combine = (t: number, b: number, o: number): number =>\n    totalWeight > 0\n      ? (t * weights.technology + b * weights.biologics + o * weights.origin) / totalWeight\n      : 0;\n\n  return {\n    score: round(combine(technology.point, biologics.point, origin.point)),\n    range: {\n      low: round(combine(technology.low, biologics.low, origin.low)),\n      high: round(combine(technology.high, biologics.high, origin.high)),\n    },\n    contested: technology.contested || biologics.contested || origin.contested,\n    components: {\n      technology: round(technology.point),\n      biologics: round(biologics.point),\n      origin: round(origin.point),\n    },\n    weights,\n    scoringVersion: SCORING_VERSION,\n  };\n}\n\nexport interface RankedObservation<T extends Observation = Observation> {\n  observation: T;\n  result: ScoreResult;\n}\n\n/**\n * Score a set of observations and return them sorted most-compelling first — the\n * \"float the strongest cases to the top\" use case.\n */\nexport function rankByCompellingness<T extends Observation>(\n  observations: readonly T[],\n  options?: ScoreOptions,\n): RankedObservation<T>[] {\n  return observations\n    .map((observation) => ({ observation, result: score(observation, options) }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.result.score - a.result.score);\n}\n"]}

package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -1,8 +1,9 @@
 export { CompletenessOptions, CompletenessResult, CompletenessResultSchema, FieldPath, deriveFieldPaths, getCompleteness } from './completeness/index.js';
-export { ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS, CompellingnessWeights, CompellingnessWeightsSchema, DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES, DEFAULT_WEIGHTS, EvaluatorWeightInput, RankedObservation, SCORING_VERSION, ScoreOptions, ScoreResult, ScoreResultSchema, rankByCompellingness, score } from './compellingness/index.js';
+export { ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS, CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS, CalibrationTrustOptions, CalibrationTrustWeights, CompellingnessWeights, CompellingnessWeightsSchema, DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES, DEFAULT_WEIGHTS, EvaluatorWeightInput, RankedObservation, SCORING_VERSION, ScoreOptions, ScoreResult, ScoreResultSchema, calibrationTrust, rankByCompellingness, score } from './compellingness/index.js';
 import 'zod';
 import '@disclosureos/records';
 import '@disclosureos/observables';
+import '@disclosureos/instruments';
 
 declare const SCORING_SCHEMA_VERSION = "2.0.0";
 declare const SCORING_SCHEMA_ID: string;

package/dist/index.js

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import { z } from 'zod';
 import { recordsJsonSchema } from '@disclosureos/records';
 import '@disclosureos/observables';
 import '@disclosureos/origins';
-import { schemaId, jsonSchemaEnvelope } from '@disclosureos/records/shared';
+import { schemaId, parseSensorRef, parseEvidenceRef, jsonSchemaEnvelope } from '@disclosureos/records/shared';
 
 // src/completeness/index.ts
 function refName(ref) {
@@ -106,6 +106,39 @@ function getCompleteness(observation, options) {
     requiredPercentage: pct(requiredPresent, requiredTotal)
   };
 }
+var CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS = {
+  unresolved: 1,
+  none: 1,
+  candidate_identified: 1.05,
+  in_practice: 1.15,
+  documented: 1.25
+};
+function calibrationTrust(observation, manifests, options) {
+  const weights = options?.weights ?? CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS;
+  const base = options?.evaluatorWeight ?? (() => 1);
+  const statusBySensorId = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  for (const reading of observation.sensorEvidence?.sensors ?? []) {
+    if (!reading.sensorRef) continue;
+    const ref = parseSensorRef(reading.sensorRef);
+    if (!ref) continue;
+    const entry = manifests.find((manifest) => manifest.orgSlug === ref.orgSlug)?.sensors.find((sensor) => sensor.id === ref.sensorId);
+    const status = entry?.calibration?.status;
+    if (status) statusBySensorId.set(reading.id, status);
+  }
+  return (claim) => {
+    let credit = weights.unresolved;
+    for (const evidence of claim.evidenceRefs ?? []) {
+      const parsed = parseEvidenceRef(evidence);
+      if (!parsed || parsed.kind !== "sensor") continue;
+      const status = statusBySensorId.get(parsed.id);
+      const weight = status === void 0 ? weights.unresolved : weights[status];
+      if (weight > credit) credit = weight;
+    }
+    return base(claim) * credit;
+  };
+}
+
+// src/compellingness/index.ts
 var SCORING_VERSION = "2.0.0";
 var ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS = {
   not_indicated: 0,
@@ -247,6 +280,6 @@ function scoringJsonSchema() {
   return jsonSchemaEnvelope(bundle, { id: SCORING_SCHEMA_ID, version: SCORING_SCHEMA_VERSION });
 }
 
-export { ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS, CompellingnessWeightsSchema, CompletenessResultSchema, DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES, DEFAULT_WEIGHTS, SCORING_SCHEMA_ID, SCORING_SCHEMA_VERSION, SCORING_VERSION, ScoreResultSchema, deriveFieldPaths, getCompleteness, rankByCompellingness, score, scoringJsonSchema };
+export { ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS, CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS, CompellingnessWeightsSchema, CompletenessResultSchema, DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES, DEFAULT_WEIGHTS, SCORING_SCHEMA_ID, SCORING_SCHEMA_VERSION, SCORING_VERSION, ScoreResultSchema, calibrationTrust, deriveFieldPaths, getCompleteness, rankByCompellingness, score, scoringJsonSchema };
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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{ recordsJsonSchema } from '@disclosureos/records';\n\n/** A leaf field path derived from the records JSON Schema. */\nexport interface FieldPath {\n  /** Dot-path into an `Observation` (e.g. `location.latitude`). */\n  path: string;\n  /** True only when every segment along the path is schema-required. */\n  required: boolean;\n}\n\ninterface SchemaNode {\n  $ref?: string;\n  properties?: Record<string, SchemaNode>;\n  required?: string[];\n  type?: string | string[];\n}\n\nfunction refName(ref: string): string {\n  return ref.replace('#/$defs/', '');\n}\n\n/**\n * Walk the committed records JSON Schema and enumerate every leaf field path on\n * `Observation`. Objects are recursed (resolving `$ref` into `$defs`); arrays,\n * enums, scalars, and `record`/`anyOf` nodes are treated as leaves. This is the\n * single source of completeness coverage — there is no hand-maintained path list\n * (so adding a field to the schema automatically extends completeness).\n */\nexport function deriveFieldPaths(schema?: Record<string, unknown>): FieldPath[] {\n  const root = (schema ?? recordsJsonSchema()) as Record<string, unknown> & {\n    $ref?: string;\n    $defs?: Record<string, SchemaNode>;\n  };\n  const defs = root.$defs ?? {};\n  const out: FieldPath[] = [];\n\n  function resolve(node: SchemaNode): SchemaNode {\n    let cur: SchemaNode = node;\n    const seen = new Set<string>();\n    while (cur.$ref) {\n      const name = refName(cur.$ref);\n      if (seen.has(name)) break;\n      seen.add(name);\n      cur = defs[name] ?? {};\n    }\n    return cur;\n  }\n\n  function walk(node: SchemaNode, prefix: string, required: boolean, visited: Set<string>): void {\n    const refn = node.$ref ? refName(node.$ref) : undefined;\n    // Cycle guard: a recursive $ref re-entering an in-progress def becomes a leaf.\n    if (refn && visited.has(refn)) {\n      if (prefix) out.push({ path: prefix, required });\n      return;\n    }\n    const resolved = resolve(node);\n    const props = resolved.properties;\n    if (props && Object.keys(props).length > 0) {\n      const nextVisited = refn ? new Set([...visited, refn]) : visited;\n      const req = new Set(resolved.required ?? []);\n      for (const [key, child] of Object.entries(props)) {\n        const childPath = prefix ? `${prefix}.${key}` : key;\n        walk(child, childPath, required && req.has(key), nextVisited);\n      }\n      return;\n    }\n    if (prefix) out.push({ path: prefix, required });\n  }\n\n  if (root.$ref) {\n    walk({ $ref: root.$ref }, '', true, new Set());\n  }\n  return out;\n}\n","import { z } from 'zod';\nimport type { Observation } from '@disclosureos/records';\nimport { deriveFieldPaths } from './field-paths';\nimport type { FieldPath } from './field-paths';\n\nexport type { FieldPath } from './field-paths';\nexport { deriveFieldPaths } from './field-paths';\n\nexport const CompletenessResultSchema = z\n  .object({\n    total: z.number().int().describe('Total leaf field paths defined by the records schema.'),\n    present: z.number().int().describe('How many of those paths carry a value.'),\n    percentage: z.number().int().describe('present / total, as a 0–100 integer.'),\n    missing: z.array(z.string()).describe('Paths that are absent or empty.'),\n    requiredTotal: z.number().int().describe('Count of schema-required leaf paths.'),\n    requiredPresent: z.number().int().describe('How many required paths carry a value.'),\n    requiredPercentage: z\n      .number()\n      .int()\n      .describe('requiredPresent / requiredTotal, as a 0–100 integer.'),\n  })\n  .meta({ id: 'CompletenessResult' })\n  .describe('How fully an observation populates the records schema.');\n\nexport type CompletenessResult = z.infer<typeof CompletenessResultSchema>;\n\nexport interface CompletenessOptions {\n  /** Override the derived field-path set (defaults to the records schema). */\n  paths?: FieldPath[];\n}\n\nfunction getNested(obj: Record<string, unknown>, path: string): unknown {\n  let current: unknown = obj;\n  for (const part of path.split('.')) {\n    if (current == null || typeof current !== 'object') return undefined;\n    current = (current as Record<string, unknown>)[part];\n  }\n  return current;\n}\n\nfunction isPresent(value: unknown): boolean {\n  if (value == null) return false;\n  if (typeof value === 'string') return value.length > 0;\n  if (Array.isArray(value)) return value.length > 0;\n  if (typeof value === 'object') return Object.keys(value).length > 0;\n  return true;\n}\n\n// Field paths are stable for a given schema version, so derive once and reuse.\nlet cachedPaths: FieldPath[] | null = null;\nfunction defaultPaths(): FieldPath[] {\n  return (cachedPaths ??= deriveFieldPaths());\n}\n\nfunction pct(present: number, total: number): number {\n  return total > 0 ? Math.round((present / total) * 100) : 0;\n}\n\n/**\n * Measure how fully an observation populates the records schema. This is the\n * \"is it well-documented?\" axis — deliberately kept separate from compellingness\n * (\"is it anomalous?\"), so a thin-but-anomalous case never masquerades as complete.\n */\nexport function getCompleteness(\n  observation: Observation | Record<string, unknown>,\n  options?: CompletenessOptions,\n): CompletenessResult {\n  const record = observation as Record<string, unknown>;\n  const paths = options?.paths ?? defaultPaths();\n  const missing: string[] = [];\n  let present = 0;\n  let requiredTotal = 0;\n  let requiredPresent = 0;\n\n  for (const field of paths) {\n    const ok = isPresent(getNested(record, field.path));\n    if (ok) present++;\n    else missing.push(field.path);\n    if (field.required) {\n      requiredTotal++;\n      if (ok) requiredPresent++;\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    total: paths.length,\n    present,\n    percentage: pct(present, paths.length),\n    missing,\n    requiredTotal,\n    requiredPresent,\n    requiredPercentage: pct(requiredPresent, requiredTotal),\n  };\n}\n","import { z } from 'zod';\nimport type { Observation } from '@disclosureos/records';\nimport type { AssessmentLevel, ObservableClaim } from '@disclosureos/observables';\nimport type { OriginClaim } from '@disclosureos/origins';\n// Side-effect imports register the `observableAssessments` and `origin` slots on\n// `Observation` via module augmentation, so they are typed below.\nimport '@disclosureos/observables';\nimport '@disclosureos/origins';\n\n/** Methodology version stamped on every {@link ScoreResult}. Bump on weight/formula changes. */\nexport const SCORING_VERSION = '2.0.0' as const;\n\n/**\n * Ordinal anomaly strength per evidentiary tier. A `confirmed` signal counts\n * fully; `not_indicated` contributes nothing. Multiplied by the assessment's\n * confidence (default 1 when unstated). Exported so consumers can render the\n * methodology; override semantics may come in a future minor release.\n */\nexport const ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS: Record<AssessmentLevel, number> = {\n  not_indicated: 0,\n  reported: 0.25,\n  documented: 0.5,\n  measured: 0.75,\n  confirmed: 1,\n};\n\n/**\n * OCS id prefixes treated as prosaic (well-explained). A confident *prosaic*\n * classification means the case is explained, so it contributes no anomaly\n * signal. Overridable per {@link score} call. Default is the OCS \"Prosaic\"\n * branch (`1.1.1`).\n */\nexport const DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES: readonly string[] = ['1.1.1'];\n\nexport const CompellingnessWeightsSchema = z\n  .object({\n    technology: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the technology-anomaly signal.'),\n    biologics: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the biologics-anomaly signal.'),\n    origin: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the (non-prosaic) origin-confidence signal.'),\n  })\n  .meta({ id: 'CompellingnessWeights' })\n  .describe('Relative weights for the compellingness components. Need not sum to 1 — normalized internally.');\n\nexport type CompellingnessWeights = z.infer<typeof CompellingnessWeightsSchema>;\n\n/**\n * Fixed default weights, exposed as a transparent, overridable data object (not a\n * config system). Partners can propose alternate weight sets without an API change.\n *\n * @experimental The *shape* (`CompellingnessWeights`) is stable, but these specific\n * default values are a reference methodology that may be re-tuned in a minor release.\n * Pin your own `weights` via {@link ScoreOptions} if you need stable numbers.\n */\nexport const DEFAULT_WEIGHTS: CompellingnessWeights = {\n  technology: 0.45,\n  biologics: 0.35,\n  origin: 0.2,\n};\n\nexport const ScoreResultSchema = z\n  .object({\n    score: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Overall compellingness (consensus point estimate), 0–1.'),\n    range: z\n      .object({\n        low: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Most-skeptical reading of the strongest-anomaly signal across competing claims.'),\n        high: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Most-anomalous reading of the strongest-anomaly signal across competing claims.'),\n      })\n      .describe(\n        'Spread of the score across competing claims — wide range signals disagreement. Bounds are '\n        + 'computed per-signal under the same strongest-anomaly (max) reduction as the point estimate, '\n        + 'not a global min/max over every claim.',\n      ),\n    contested: z\n      .boolean()\n      .describe('True when claims disagree on *direction* (some assert anomaly, some assert none).'),\n    components: z\n      .object({\n        technology: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n        biologics: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n        origin: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n      })\n      .describe('Per-signal consensus contributions before weighting.'),\n    weights: CompellingnessWeightsSchema,\n    scoringVersion: z.string().describe('Methodology version that produced this score.'),\n  })\n  .meta({ id: 'ScoreResult' })\n  .describe('A reference compellingness score for an observation, with a contestedness range.');\n\nexport type ScoreResult = z.infer<typeof ScoreResultSchema>;\n\n/** The minimal claim shape the trust hook sees (it never needs the full body). */\nexport type EvaluatorWeightInput = {\n  evaluatedBy?: string | undefined;\n  evidenceRefs?: string[] | undefined;\n};\n\nexport interface ScoreOptions {\n  weights?: CompellingnessWeights;\n  /** Override the prosaic OCS prefixes (defaults to {@link DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES}). */\n  prosaicPrefixes?: readonly string[];\n  /**\n   * Trust applied to each claim's vote in the consensus point estimate (default\n   * 1.0 — uniform). This is where a future trust policy (e.g.\n   * weighting verified/official evaluators higher) plugs in here without changing\n   * the formula. Range/contestedness are NOT affected — they report the honest\n   * spread of what evaluators actually asserted.\n   *\n   * @experimental The hook signature is stable, but the default trust *policy*\n   * (uniform 1.0) is deliberately unopinionated and is a separate, ongoing design\n   * task; a future built-in policy may change the default.\n   */\n  evaluatorWeight?: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number;\n}\n\nconst UNIFORM_TRUST = (): number => 1;\n\nfunction isProsaic(id: string, prefixes: readonly string[]): boolean {\n  return prefixes.some((p) => id === p || id.startsWith(`${p}.`));\n}\n\nfunction round(n: number): number {\n  return Math.round(n * 1e4) / 1e4;\n}\n\ntype Weighted = { magnitude: number; weight: number };\n\ninterface ClaimStats {\n  /** Trust-weighted mean magnitude (the consensus point). */\n  point: number;\n  /** Min asserted magnitude (most skeptical). */\n  low: number;\n  /** Max asserted magnitude (most anomalous). */\n  high: number;\n  /** Claims disagree on direction (some > 0, some === 0). */\n  contested: boolean;\n}\n\nconst EMPTY_STATS: ClaimStats = { point: 0, low: 0, high: 0, contested: false };\n\nfunction reduceClaims(weighted: Weighted[]): ClaimStats {\n  if (weighted.length === 0) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  let wsum = 0;\n  let msum = 0;\n  let low = Infinity;\n  let high = -Infinity;\n  let anyAnomaly = false;\n  let anyNone = false;\n  for (const { magnitude, weight } of weighted) {\n    wsum += weight;\n    msum += magnitude * weight;\n    if (magnitude < low) low = magnitude;\n    if (magnitude > high) high = magnitude;\n    if (magnitude > 0) anyAnomaly = true;\n    else anyNone = true;\n  }\n  return {\n    point: wsum > 0 ? msum / wsum : 0,\n    low,\n    high,\n    contested: anyAnomaly && anyNone,\n  };\n}\n\n/** Asserted anomaly magnitude of one observable claim, in [0,1]. */\nfunction observableMagnitude(claim: ObservableClaim): number {\n  return ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS[claim.level] * (claim.confidence ?? 1);\n}\n\n/**\n * Strongest established anomaly within a domain — the \"is there *any* anomaly?\" reduction.\n * `point`/`low`/`high` are each a **max across observables** of that observable's claim-list\n * stat. So `low` is \"the most-skeptical reading of the strongest-anomaly observable,\" not a\n * global floor across all observables — consistent with the point estimate's max reduction.\n */\nfunction domainStats(\n  group: Partial<Record<string, ObservableClaim[]>> | undefined,\n  evaluatorWeight: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number,\n): ClaimStats {\n  if (!group) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  let point = 0;\n  let low = 0;\n  let high = 0;\n  let contested = false;\n  for (const claims of Object.values(group)) {\n    if (!claims || claims.length === 0) continue;\n    const weighted = claims.map<Weighted>((c) => ({\n      magnitude: observableMagnitude(c),\n      weight: (c.confidence ?? 1) * evaluatorWeight(c),\n    }));\n    const stats = reduceClaims(weighted);\n    if (stats.point > point) point = stats.point;\n    if (stats.low > low) low = stats.low;\n    if (stats.high > high) high = stats.high;\n    if (stats.contested) contested = true;\n  }\n  return { point, low, high, contested };\n}\n\n/** Confidence in a *non-prosaic* origin, reduced across competing classifications. */\nfunction originStats(\n  origin: OriginClaim[] | undefined,\n  prefixes: readonly string[],\n  evaluatorWeight: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number,\n): ClaimStats {\n  if (!origin || origin.length === 0) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  const weighted = origin.map<Weighted>((c) => ({\n    magnitude: isProsaic(c.primaryHypothesis, prefixes) ? 0 : c.confidence,\n    weight: c.confidence * evaluatorWeight(c),\n  }));\n  return reduceClaims(weighted);\n}\n\n/**\n * Reference compellingness scorer. Combines the strongest technology- and\n * biologics-anomaly signals (from `observableAssessments`) with the confidence in\n * a *non-prosaic* origin classification (from `origin`), under transparent,\n * overridable weights. Each slot is a *list* of competing claims, so the scorer\n * reports a consensus `score`, the `range` of readings across claims, and whether\n * the case is `contested` (evaluators disagree on direction). This answers \"how\n * strongly does this case bear on the two public questions — anomalous\n * tech/biologics, and a non-mundane origin?\" — distinct from completeness.\n */\nexport function score(observation: Observation, options?: ScoreOptions): ScoreResult {\n  const weights = options?.weights ?? DEFAULT_WEIGHTS;\n  const prosaicPrefixes = options?.prosaicPrefixes ?? DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES;\n  const evaluatorWeight = options?.evaluatorWeight ?? UNIFORM_TRUST;\n\n  const assessments = observation.observableAssessments;\n  const technology = domainStats(assessments?.technology, evaluatorWeight);\n  const biologics = domainStats(assessments?.biologics, evaluatorWeight);\n  const origin = originStats(observation.origin, prosaicPrefixes, evaluatorWeight);\n\n  const totalWeight = weights.technology + weights.biologics + weights.origin;\n  const combine = (t: number, b: number, o: number): number =>\n    totalWeight > 0\n      ? (t * weights.technology + b * weights.biologics + o * weights.origin) / totalWeight\n      : 0;\n\n  return {\n    score: round(combine(technology.point, biologics.point, origin.point)),\n    range: {\n      low: round(combine(technology.low, biologics.low, origin.low)),\n      high: round(combine(technology.high, biologics.high, origin.high)),\n    },\n    contested: technology.contested || biologics.contested || origin.contested,\n    components: {\n      technology: round(technology.point),\n      biologics: round(biologics.point),\n      origin: round(origin.point),\n    },\n    weights,\n    scoringVersion: SCORING_VERSION,\n  };\n}\n\nexport interface RankedObservation<T extends Observation = Observation> {\n  observation: T;\n  result: ScoreResult;\n}\n\n/**\n * Score a set of observations and return them sorted most-compelling first — the\n * \"float the strongest cases to the top\" use case.\n */\nexport function rankByCompellingness<T extends Observation>(\n  observations: readonly T[],\n  options?: ScoreOptions,\n): RankedObservation<T>[] {\n  return observations\n    .map((observation) => ({ observation, result: score(observation, options) }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.result.score - a.result.score);\n}\n","import { z } from 'zod';\nimport { jsonSchemaEnvelope, schemaId } from '@disclosureos/records/shared';\nimport { CompletenessResultSchema } from './completeness';\nimport { ScoreResultSchema, CompellingnessWeightsSchema } from './compellingness';\n\nexport const SCORING_SCHEMA_VERSION = '2.0.0';\n\nexport const SCORING_SCHEMA_ID = schemaId('scoring', 'scoring', SCORING_SCHEMA_VERSION);\n\n/**\n * Emit the JSON Schema (draft 2020-12) for the scoring output shapes\n * ({@link CompletenessResultSchema}, {@link ScoreResultSchema}) so downstream\n * consumers (and other languages) can validate stored scores.\n */\nexport function scoringJsonSchema(): Record<string, unknown> {\n  const bundle = z.toJSONSchema(\n    z.object({\n      completeness: CompletenessResultSchema,\n      compellingness: ScoreResultSchema,\n      weights: CompellingnessWeightsSchema,\n    }),\n    { target: 'draft-2020-12' },\n  ) as Record<string, unknown>;\n  return jsonSchemaEnvelope(bundle, { id: SCORING_SCHEMA_ID, version: SCORING_SCHEMA_VERSION });\n}\n"]}
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{ recordsJsonSchema } from '@disclosureos/records';\n\n/** A leaf field path derived from the records JSON Schema. */\nexport interface FieldPath {\n  /** Dot-path into an `Observation` (e.g. `location.latitude`). */\n  path: string;\n  /** True only when every segment along the path is schema-required. */\n  required: boolean;\n}\n\ninterface SchemaNode {\n  $ref?: string;\n  properties?: Record<string, SchemaNode>;\n  required?: string[];\n  type?: string | string[];\n}\n\nfunction refName(ref: string): string {\n  return ref.replace('#/$defs/', '');\n}\n\n/**\n * Walk the committed records JSON Schema and enumerate every leaf field path on\n * `Observation`. Objects are recursed (resolving `$ref` into `$defs`); arrays,\n * enums, scalars, and `record`/`anyOf` nodes are treated as leaves. This is the\n * single source of completeness coverage — there is no hand-maintained path list\n * (so adding a field to the schema automatically extends completeness).\n */\nexport function deriveFieldPaths(schema?: Record<string, unknown>): FieldPath[] {\n  const root = (schema ?? recordsJsonSchema()) as Record<string, unknown> & {\n    $ref?: string;\n    $defs?: Record<string, SchemaNode>;\n  };\n  const defs = root.$defs ?? {};\n  const out: FieldPath[] = [];\n\n  function resolve(node: SchemaNode): SchemaNode {\n    let cur: SchemaNode = node;\n    const seen = new Set<string>();\n    while (cur.$ref) {\n      const name = refName(cur.$ref);\n      if (seen.has(name)) break;\n      seen.add(name);\n      cur = defs[name] ?? {};\n    }\n    return cur;\n  }\n\n  function walk(node: SchemaNode, prefix: string, required: boolean, visited: Set<string>): void {\n    const refn = node.$ref ? refName(node.$ref) : undefined;\n    // Cycle guard: a recursive $ref re-entering an in-progress def becomes a leaf.\n    if (refn && visited.has(refn)) {\n      if (prefix) out.push({ path: prefix, required });\n      return;\n    }\n    const resolved = resolve(node);\n    const props = resolved.properties;\n    if (props && Object.keys(props).length > 0) {\n      const nextVisited = refn ? new Set([...visited, refn]) : visited;\n      const req = new Set(resolved.required ?? []);\n      for (const [key, child] of Object.entries(props)) {\n        const childPath = prefix ? `${prefix}.${key}` : key;\n        walk(child, childPath, required && req.has(key), nextVisited);\n      }\n      return;\n    }\n    if (prefix) out.push({ path: prefix, required });\n  }\n\n  if (root.$ref) {\n    walk({ $ref: root.$ref }, '', true, new Set());\n  }\n  return out;\n}\n","import { z } from 'zod';\nimport type { Observation } from '@disclosureos/records';\nimport { deriveFieldPaths } from './field-paths';\nimport type { FieldPath } from './field-paths';\n\nexport type { FieldPath } from './field-paths';\nexport { deriveFieldPaths } from './field-paths';\n\nexport const CompletenessResultSchema = z\n  .object({\n    total: z.number().int().describe('Total leaf field paths defined by the records schema.'),\n    present: z.number().int().describe('How many of those paths carry a value.'),\n    percentage: z.number().int().describe('present / total, as a 0–100 integer.'),\n    missing: z.array(z.string()).describe('Paths that are absent or empty.'),\n    requiredTotal: z.number().int().describe('Count of schema-required leaf paths.'),\n    requiredPresent: z.number().int().describe('How many required paths carry a value.'),\n    requiredPercentage: z\n      .number()\n      .int()\n      .describe('requiredPresent / requiredTotal, as a 0–100 integer.'),\n  })\n  .meta({ id: 'CompletenessResult' })\n  .describe('How fully an observation populates the records schema.');\n\nexport type CompletenessResult = z.infer<typeof CompletenessResultSchema>;\n\nexport interface CompletenessOptions {\n  /** Override the derived field-path set (defaults to the records schema). */\n  paths?: FieldPath[];\n}\n\nfunction getNested(obj: Record<string, unknown>, path: string): unknown {\n  let current: unknown = obj;\n  for (const part of path.split('.')) {\n    if (current == null || typeof current !== 'object') return undefined;\n    current = (current as Record<string, unknown>)[part];\n  }\n  return current;\n}\n\nfunction isPresent(value: unknown): boolean {\n  if (value == null) return false;\n  if (typeof value === 'string') return value.length > 0;\n  if (Array.isArray(value)) return value.length > 0;\n  if (typeof value === 'object') return Object.keys(value).length > 0;\n  return true;\n}\n\n// Field paths are stable for a given schema version, so derive once and reuse.\nlet cachedPaths: FieldPath[] | null = null;\nfunction defaultPaths(): FieldPath[] {\n  return (cachedPaths ??= deriveFieldPaths());\n}\n\nfunction pct(present: number, total: number): number {\n  return total > 0 ? Math.round((present / total) * 100) : 0;\n}\n\n/**\n * Measure how fully an observation populates the records schema. This is the\n * \"is it well-documented?\" axis — deliberately kept separate from compellingness\n * (\"is it anomalous?\"), so a thin-but-anomalous case never masquerades as complete.\n */\nexport function getCompleteness(\n  observation: Observation | Record<string, unknown>,\n  options?: CompletenessOptions,\n): CompletenessResult {\n  const record = observation as Record<string, unknown>;\n  const paths = options?.paths ?? defaultPaths();\n  const missing: string[] = [];\n  let present = 0;\n  let requiredTotal = 0;\n  let requiredPresent = 0;\n\n  for (const field of paths) {\n    const ok = isPresent(getNested(record, field.path));\n    if (ok) present++;\n    else missing.push(field.path);\n    if (field.required) {\n      requiredTotal++;\n      if (ok) requiredPresent++;\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    total: paths.length,\n    present,\n    percentage: pct(present, paths.length),\n    missing,\n    requiredTotal,\n    requiredPresent,\n    requiredPercentage: pct(requiredPresent, requiredTotal),\n  };\n}\n","import type { Observation } from '@disclosureos/records';\nimport { parseEvidenceRef, parseSensorRef } from '@disclosureos/records/shared';\nimport type { CalibrationStatus, SensorManifest } from '@disclosureos/instruments';\nimport type { EvaluatorWeightInput } from './index';\n\n/**\n * Trust multiplier per calibration maturity level, plus the `unresolved`\n * baseline for claims whose sensor evidence does not resolve to a manifest\n * entry (no `sensorRef`, unknown org, unknown sensor, or no calibration block).\n */\nexport type CalibrationTrustWeights = Record<CalibrationStatus | 'unresolved', number>;\n\n/**\n * Conservative default gradient: instruments with real calibration provenance\n * earn *credit* over unresolved sensors — nothing is ever penalized below the\n * baseline, so adopting the hook can only reward organizations that publish\n * manifests, never punish records that predate them.\n *\n * @experimental The shape is stable; these specific values are a reference\n * policy that may be re-tuned in a minor release. Pin your own `weights` via\n * {@link CalibrationTrustOptions} if you need stable numbers.\n */\nexport const CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS: CalibrationTrustWeights = {\n  unresolved: 1,\n  none: 1,\n  candidate_identified: 1.05,\n  in_practice: 1.15,\n  documented: 1.25,\n};\n\nexport interface CalibrationTrustOptions {\n  /** Override the trust gradient (defaults to {@link CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS}). */\n  weights?: CalibrationTrustWeights;\n  /**\n   * A base trust policy composed (multiplied) with the calibration credit —\n   * e.g. an evaluator-identity policy. Defaults to uniform 1.0.\n   */\n  evaluatorWeight?: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number;\n}\n\n/**\n * Build an `evaluatorWeight` hook (see `ScoreOptions.evaluatorWeight`) that\n * credits claims backed by instruments with published calibration provenance.\n *\n * Resolution chain, per claim: `evidenceRefs` (`\"sensor:<id>\"`) → the\n * observation's `sensorEvidence.sensors[]` reading → its `sensorRef`\n * (`\"<org-slug>:<sensor-id>\"`) → the matching manifest entry's\n * `calibration.status`. When a claim cites several sensor readings, the\n * strongest instrument backing wins. Claims with no resolvable sensor\n * evidence get the `unresolved` baseline.\n *\n * Like every `evaluatorWeight` policy, this shifts only the consensus point\n * estimate — `range` and `contested` still report the honest spread of what\n * evaluators actually asserted.\n *\n * ```ts\n * const result = score(observation, {\n *   evaluatorWeight: calibrationTrust(observation, [navyManifest]),\n * });\n * ```\n */\nexport function calibrationTrust(\n  observation: Observation,\n  manifests: readonly SensorManifest[],\n  options?: CalibrationTrustOptions,\n): (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number {\n  const weights = options?.weights ?? CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS;\n  const base = options?.evaluatorWeight ?? ((): number => 1);\n\n  // Pre-resolve each in-record sensor reading to its manifest calibration status.\n  const statusBySensorId = new Map<string, CalibrationStatus>();\n  for (const reading of observation.sensorEvidence?.sensors ?? []) {\n    if (!reading.sensorRef) continue;\n    const ref = parseSensorRef(reading.sensorRef);\n    if (!ref) continue;\n    const entry = manifests\n      .find((manifest) => manifest.orgSlug === ref.orgSlug)\n      ?.sensors.find((sensor) => sensor.id === ref.sensorId);\n    const status = entry?.calibration?.status;\n    if (status) statusBySensorId.set(reading.id, status);\n  }\n\n  return (claim) => {\n    let credit = weights.unresolved;\n    for (const evidence of claim.evidenceRefs ?? []) {\n      const parsed = parseEvidenceRef(evidence);\n      if (!parsed || parsed.kind !== 'sensor') continue;\n      const status = statusBySensorId.get(parsed.id);\n      const weight = status === undefined ? weights.unresolved : weights[status];\n      if (weight > credit) credit = weight;\n    }\n    return base(claim) * credit;\n  };\n}\n","import { z } from 'zod';\nimport type { Observation } from '@disclosureos/records';\nimport type { AssessmentLevel, ObservableClaim } from '@disclosureos/observables';\nimport type { OriginClaim } from '@disclosureos/origins';\n// Side-effect imports register the `observableAssessments` and `origin` slots on\n// `Observation` via module augmentation, so they are typed below.\nimport '@disclosureos/observables';\nimport '@disclosureos/origins';\n\nexport { calibrationTrust, CALIBRATION_TRUST_WEIGHTS } from './calibration';\nexport type { CalibrationTrustWeights, CalibrationTrustOptions } from './calibration';\n\n/** Methodology version stamped on every {@link ScoreResult}. Bump on weight/formula changes. */\nexport const SCORING_VERSION = '2.0.0' as const;\n\n/**\n * Ordinal anomaly strength per evidentiary tier. A `confirmed` signal counts\n * fully; `not_indicated` contributes nothing. Multiplied by the assessment's\n * confidence (default 1 when unstated). Exported so consumers can render the\n * methodology; override semantics may come in a future minor release.\n */\nexport const ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS: Record<AssessmentLevel, number> = {\n  not_indicated: 0,\n  reported: 0.25,\n  documented: 0.5,\n  measured: 0.75,\n  confirmed: 1,\n};\n\n/**\n * OCS id prefixes treated as prosaic (well-explained). A confident *prosaic*\n * classification means the case is explained, so it contributes no anomaly\n * signal. Overridable per {@link score} call. Default is the OCS \"Prosaic\"\n * branch (`1.1.1`).\n */\nexport const DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES: readonly string[] = ['1.1.1'];\n\nexport const CompellingnessWeightsSchema = z\n  .object({\n    technology: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the technology-anomaly signal.'),\n    biologics: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the biologics-anomaly signal.'),\n    origin: z.number().min(0).describe('Weight of the (non-prosaic) origin-confidence signal.'),\n  })\n  .meta({ id: 'CompellingnessWeights' })\n  .describe('Relative weights for the compellingness components. Need not sum to 1 — normalized internally.');\n\nexport type CompellingnessWeights = z.infer<typeof CompellingnessWeightsSchema>;\n\n/**\n * Fixed default weights, exposed as a transparent, overridable data object (not a\n * config system). Partners can propose alternate weight sets without an API change.\n *\n * @experimental The *shape* (`CompellingnessWeights`) is stable, but these specific\n * default values are a reference methodology that may be re-tuned in a minor release.\n * Pin your own `weights` via {@link ScoreOptions} if you need stable numbers.\n */\nexport const DEFAULT_WEIGHTS: CompellingnessWeights = {\n  technology: 0.45,\n  biologics: 0.35,\n  origin: 0.2,\n};\n\nexport const ScoreResultSchema = z\n  .object({\n    score: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Overall compellingness (consensus point estimate), 0–1.'),\n    range: z\n      .object({\n        low: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Most-skeptical reading of the strongest-anomaly signal across competing claims.'),\n        high: z.number().min(0).max(1).describe('Most-anomalous reading of the strongest-anomaly signal across competing claims.'),\n      })\n      .describe(\n        'Spread of the score across competing claims — wide range signals disagreement. Bounds are '\n        + 'computed per-signal under the same strongest-anomaly (max) reduction as the point estimate, '\n        + 'not a global min/max over every claim.',\n      ),\n    contested: z\n      .boolean()\n      .describe('True when claims disagree on *direction* (some assert anomaly, some assert none).'),\n    components: z\n      .object({\n        technology: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n        biologics: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n        origin: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n      })\n      .describe('Per-signal consensus contributions before weighting.'),\n    weights: CompellingnessWeightsSchema,\n    scoringVersion: z.string().describe('Methodology version that produced this score.'),\n  })\n  .meta({ id: 'ScoreResult' })\n  .describe('A reference compellingness score for an observation, with a contestedness range.');\n\nexport type ScoreResult = z.infer<typeof ScoreResultSchema>;\n\n/** The minimal claim shape the trust hook sees (it never needs the full body). */\nexport type EvaluatorWeightInput = {\n  evaluatedBy?: string | undefined;\n  evidenceRefs?: string[] | undefined;\n};\n\nexport interface ScoreOptions {\n  weights?: CompellingnessWeights;\n  /** Override the prosaic OCS prefixes (defaults to {@link DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES}). */\n  prosaicPrefixes?: readonly string[];\n  /**\n   * Trust applied to each claim's vote in the consensus point estimate (default\n   * 1.0 — uniform). This is where a future trust policy (e.g.\n   * weighting verified/official evaluators higher) plugs in here without changing\n   * the formula. Range/contestedness are NOT affected — they report the honest\n   * spread of what evaluators actually asserted.\n   *\n   * @experimental The hook signature is stable, but the default trust *policy*\n   * (uniform 1.0) is deliberately unopinionated and is a separate, ongoing design\n   * task; a future built-in policy may change the default.\n   */\n  evaluatorWeight?: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number;\n}\n\nconst UNIFORM_TRUST = (): number => 1;\n\nfunction isProsaic(id: string, prefixes: readonly string[]): boolean {\n  return prefixes.some((p) => id === p || id.startsWith(`${p}.`));\n}\n\nfunction round(n: number): number {\n  return Math.round(n * 1e4) / 1e4;\n}\n\ntype Weighted = { magnitude: number; weight: number };\n\ninterface ClaimStats {\n  /** Trust-weighted mean magnitude (the consensus point). */\n  point: number;\n  /** Min asserted magnitude (most skeptical). */\n  low: number;\n  /** Max asserted magnitude (most anomalous). */\n  high: number;\n  /** Claims disagree on direction (some > 0, some === 0). */\n  contested: boolean;\n}\n\nconst EMPTY_STATS: ClaimStats = { point: 0, low: 0, high: 0, contested: false };\n\nfunction reduceClaims(weighted: Weighted[]): ClaimStats {\n  if (weighted.length === 0) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  let wsum = 0;\n  let msum = 0;\n  let low = Infinity;\n  let high = -Infinity;\n  let anyAnomaly = false;\n  let anyNone = false;\n  for (const { magnitude, weight } of weighted) {\n    wsum += weight;\n    msum += magnitude * weight;\n    if (magnitude < low) low = magnitude;\n    if (magnitude > high) high = magnitude;\n    if (magnitude > 0) anyAnomaly = true;\n    else anyNone = true;\n  }\n  return {\n    point: wsum > 0 ? msum / wsum : 0,\n    low,\n    high,\n    contested: anyAnomaly && anyNone,\n  };\n}\n\n/** Asserted anomaly magnitude of one observable claim, in [0,1]. */\nfunction observableMagnitude(claim: ObservableClaim): number {\n  return ASSESSMENT_LEVEL_WEIGHTS[claim.level] * (claim.confidence ?? 1);\n}\n\n/**\n * Strongest established anomaly within a domain — the \"is there *any* anomaly?\" reduction.\n * `point`/`low`/`high` are each a **max across observables** of that observable's claim-list\n * stat. So `low` is \"the most-skeptical reading of the strongest-anomaly observable,\" not a\n * global floor across all observables — consistent with the point estimate's max reduction.\n */\nfunction domainStats(\n  group: Partial<Record<string, ObservableClaim[]>> | undefined,\n  evaluatorWeight: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number,\n): ClaimStats {\n  if (!group) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  let point = 0;\n  let low = 0;\n  let high = 0;\n  let contested = false;\n  for (const claims of Object.values(group)) {\n    if (!claims || claims.length === 0) continue;\n    const weighted = claims.map<Weighted>((c) => ({\n      magnitude: observableMagnitude(c),\n      weight: (c.confidence ?? 1) * evaluatorWeight(c),\n    }));\n    const stats = reduceClaims(weighted);\n    if (stats.point > point) point = stats.point;\n    if (stats.low > low) low = stats.low;\n    if (stats.high > high) high = stats.high;\n    if (stats.contested) contested = true;\n  }\n  return { point, low, high, contested };\n}\n\n/** Confidence in a *non-prosaic* origin, reduced across competing classifications. */\nfunction originStats(\n  origin: OriginClaim[] | undefined,\n  prefixes: readonly string[],\n  evaluatorWeight: (claim: EvaluatorWeightInput) => number,\n): ClaimStats {\n  if (!origin || origin.length === 0) return EMPTY_STATS;\n  const weighted = origin.map<Weighted>((c) => ({\n    magnitude: isProsaic(c.primaryHypothesis, prefixes) ? 0 : c.confidence,\n    weight: c.confidence * evaluatorWeight(c),\n  }));\n  return reduceClaims(weighted);\n}\n\n/**\n * Reference compellingness scorer. Combines the strongest technology- and\n * biologics-anomaly signals (from `observableAssessments`) with the confidence in\n * a *non-prosaic* origin classification (from `origin`), under transparent,\n * overridable weights. Each slot is a *list* of competing claims, so the scorer\n * reports a consensus `score`, the `range` of readings across claims, and whether\n * the case is `contested` (evaluators disagree on direction). This answers \"how\n * strongly does this case bear on the two public questions — anomalous\n * tech/biologics, and a non-mundane origin?\" — distinct from completeness.\n */\nexport function score(observation: Observation, options?: ScoreOptions): ScoreResult {\n  const weights = options?.weights ?? DEFAULT_WEIGHTS;\n  const prosaicPrefixes = options?.prosaicPrefixes ?? DEFAULT_PROSAIC_OCS_PREFIXES;\n  const evaluatorWeight = options?.evaluatorWeight ?? UNIFORM_TRUST;\n\n  const assessments = observation.observableAssessments;\n  const technology = domainStats(assessments?.technology, evaluatorWeight);\n  const biologics = domainStats(assessments?.biologics, evaluatorWeight);\n  const origin = originStats(observation.origin, prosaicPrefixes, evaluatorWeight);\n\n  const totalWeight = weights.technology + weights.biologics + weights.origin;\n  const combine = (t: number, b: number, o: number): number =>\n    totalWeight > 0\n      ? (t * weights.technology + b * weights.biologics + o * weights.origin) / totalWeight\n      : 0;\n\n  return {\n    score: round(combine(technology.point, biologics.point, origin.point)),\n    range: {\n      low: round(combine(technology.low, biologics.low, origin.low)),\n      high: round(combine(technology.high, biologics.high, origin.high)),\n    },\n    contested: technology.contested || biologics.contested || origin.contested,\n    components: {\n      technology: round(technology.point),\n      biologics: round(biologics.point),\n      origin: round(origin.point),\n    },\n    weights,\n    scoringVersion: SCORING_VERSION,\n  };\n}\n\nexport interface RankedObservation<T extends Observation = Observation> {\n  observation: T;\n  result: ScoreResult;\n}\n\n/**\n * Score a set of observations and return them sorted most-compelling first — the\n * \"float the strongest cases to the top\" use case.\n */\nexport function rankByCompellingness<T extends Observation>(\n  observations: readonly T[],\n  options?: ScoreOptions,\n): RankedObservation<T>[] {\n  return observations\n    .map((observation) => ({ observation, result: score(observation, options) }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.result.score - a.result.score);\n}\n","import { z } from 'zod';\nimport { jsonSchemaEnvelope, schemaId } from '@disclosureos/records/shared';\nimport { CompletenessResultSchema } from './completeness';\nimport { ScoreResultSchema, CompellingnessWeightsSchema } from './compellingness';\n\nexport const SCORING_SCHEMA_VERSION = '2.0.0';\n\nexport const SCORING_SCHEMA_ID = schemaId('scoring', 'scoring', SCORING_SCHEMA_VERSION);\n\n/**\n * Emit the JSON Schema (draft 2020-12) for the scoring output shapes\n * ({@link CompletenessResultSchema}, {@link ScoreResultSchema}) so downstream\n * consumers (and other languages) can validate stored scores.\n */\nexport function scoringJsonSchema(): Record<string, unknown> {\n  const bundle = z.toJSONSchema(\n    z.object({\n      completeness: CompletenessResultSchema,\n      compellingness: ScoreResultSchema,\n      weights: CompellingnessWeightsSchema,\n    }),\n    { target: 'draft-2020-12' },\n  ) as Record<string, unknown>;\n  return jsonSchemaEnvelope(bundle, { id: SCORING_SCHEMA_ID, version: SCORING_SCHEMA_VERSION });\n}\n"]}

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@disclosureos/scoring",
-  "version": "1.0.0",
+  "version": "1.1.0",
   "description": "Reference scoring for the DisclosureOS ecosystem — record completeness and case compellingness across the Observables and Origin layers",
   "license": "MIT",
   "repository": {
@@ -51,9 +51,10 @@
   ],
   "dependencies": {
     "zod": "^4.4.3",
-    "@disclosureos/records": "1.0.0",
-    "@disclosureos/origins": "1.0.0",
-    "@disclosureos/observables": "1.0.0"
+    "@disclosureos/instruments": "1.0.0",
+    "@disclosureos/observables": "1.0.1",
+    "@disclosureos/origins": "1.0.1",
+    "@disclosureos/records": "1.1.0"
   },
   "devDependencies": {
     "@types/node": "^20",