@diagrammo/dgmo 0.47.0 → 0.48.1

package/src/pert/analyzer.ts

@@ -1,1183 +0,0 @@
-// ============================================================
-// PERT Analyzer — forward/backward pass + critical path + project μ/σ
-// ============================================================
-//
-// Phase 1 scope: M-world analytical PERT only. Phase 2 wires Monte
-// Carlo into `monteCarloResult`.
-//
-// TBD-poison-downstream semantics: activities with a null duration
-// propagate null through every descendant's ES/EF/LS/LF/slack; if any
-// TBD is upstream of the project end, projectMu and projectSigma are
-// also null. Cycles emit a diagnostic naming at least one offending
-// activity (AC2.5).
-
-import { makeDgmoError } from '../diagnostics';
-import type { DgmoError } from '../diagnostics';
-import type { Duration, DurationUnit } from '../gantt/types';
-import type {
-  Anchor,
-  CaptionRow,
-  ParsedPert,
-  PertActivity,
-  PertEdge,
-  PertGroup,
-  ResolvedActivity,
-  ResolvedGroup,
-  ResolvedPert,
-  MonteCarloResult,
-  TornadoSwing,
-} from './types';
-import type { DurationEstimate } from './internal';
-import {
-  addCalendarDays,
-  resolveConfidence,
-  unitToDays,
-  CONFIDENCE_TABLE,
-} from './internal';
-import { simulateCanonical, type ExpandedActivity } from './monte-carlo';
-
-// ============================================================
-// Duration arithmetic helpers
-// ============================================================
-
-/** Convert any Duration to a canonical `timeUnit` amount. */
-const UNIT_TO_DAYS: Record<DurationUnit, number> = {
-  min: 1 / (60 * 24),
-  h: 1 / 24,
-  d: 1,
-  bd: 1, // PERT has no calendar; bd ≈ d for analytical purposes
-  w: 7,
-  m: 30,
-  q: 90,
-  y: 365,
-  s: 14, // fallback when sprint-length isn't authored; the analyzer
-  // overrides this from `options.sprintLength` when in sprint mode.
-};
-
-function unitDays(unit: DurationUnit, sprintDaysOverride?: number): number {
-  if (unit === 's' && sprintDaysOverride !== undefined) {
-    return sprintDaysOverride;
-  }
-  return UNIT_TO_DAYS[unit];
-}
-
-function toDays(d: Duration, sprintDaysOverride?: number): number {
-  return d.amount * unitDays(d.unit, sprintDaysOverride);
-}
-
-function fromDays(
-  days: number,
-  unit: DurationUnit,
-  sprintDaysOverride?: number
-): number {
-  return days / unitDays(unit, sprintDaysOverride);
-}
-
-function resolveSprintDays(opts: {
-  sprintMode: 'auto' | 'explicit' | null;
-  sprintLength: Duration | null;
-}): number | undefined {
-  if (!opts.sprintMode || !opts.sprintLength) return undefined;
-  return opts.sprintLength.amount * UNIT_TO_DAYS[opts.sprintLength.unit];
-}
-
-// ============================================================
-// Estimate expansion (M-only heuristic + Beta-PERT μ/σ)
-// ============================================================
-
-interface ExpandedEstimate {
-  /** Optimistic, in canonical days. */
-  o: number;
-  /** Most-likely, in canonical days. */
-  m: number;
-  /** Pessimistic, in canonical days. */
-  p: number;
-  /** Beta-PERT mean = (O + 4M + P) / 6. */
-  mean: number;
-  /** Beta-PERT std dev = (P − O) / 6. */
-  sigma: number;
-}
-
-function expandEstimate(
-  estimate: DurationEstimate,
-  diagramConfidence: string,
-  activityConfidence: string | undefined,
-  sprintDays?: number
-): ExpandedEstimate {
-  const o = toDays(estimate.o, sprintDays);
-  const m = toDays(estimate.m, sprintDays);
-  const p = toDays(estimate.p, sprintDays);
-
-  // Heuristic-pending sentinel: parser set `mOnly = true` when only a
-  // single M token was given. Expand using confidence factors.
-  let oFinal = o;
-  let pFinal = p;
-  if (estimate.mOnly) {
-    const fromActivity = activityConfidence
-      ? resolveConfidence(activityConfidence)
-      : null;
-    const factors =
-      fromActivity ??
-      resolveConfidence(diagramConfidence) ??
-      CONFIDENCE_TABLE.medium;
-    oFinal = m * factors.oFactor;
-    pFinal = m * factors.pFactor;
-  }
-
-  const mean = (oFinal + 4 * m + pFinal) / 6;
-  const sigma = (pFinal - oFinal) / 6;
-  return { o: oFinal, m, p: pFinal, mean, sigma };
-}
-
-// ============================================================
-// analyzePert
-// ============================================================
-
-export function analyzePert(parsed: ParsedPert): ResolvedPert {
-  const diagnostics: DgmoError[] = [...parsed.diagnostics];
-  const error = (line: number, msg: string): void => {
-    diagnostics.push(makeDgmoError(line, msg, 'error'));
-  };
-
-  const activities = parsed.activities;
-  const edges = parsed.edges;
-  const warn = (line: number, msg: string): void => {
-    diagnostics.push(makeDgmoError(line, msg, 'warning'));
-  };
-
-  // Sprint mode override: when the diagram opts into sprint mode, the
-  // `s` unit means "one sprint" worth of canonical days as configured
-  // by `sprint-length`. Without this, every `s` defaults to the 14-day
-  // fallback, which silently disagrees with the user's `sprint-length`
-  // directive.
-  const sprintDays = resolveSprintDays(parsed.options);
-
-  // Build successor/predecessor maps keyed by activity id, plus parallel
-  // maps keyed-by-edge-direction so the forward/backward pass can read
-  // dep-type and lag for each (source, target) link.
-  const successors = new Map<string, string[]>();
-  const predecessors = new Map<string, string[]>();
-  const incomingEdges = new Map<string, PertEdge[]>();
-  const outgoingEdges = new Map<string, PertEdge[]>();
-  for (const a of activities) {
-    successors.set(a.id, []);
-    predecessors.set(a.id, []);
-    incomingEdges.set(a.id, []);
-    outgoingEdges.set(a.id, []);
-  }
-  for (const e of edges) {
-    successors.get(e.source)?.push(e.target);
-    predecessors.get(e.target)?.push(e.source);
-    incomingEdges.get(e.target)?.push(e);
-    outgoingEdges.get(e.source)?.push(e);
-  }
-
-  // Lead-exceeds-duration validation. For an FS edge with negative lag
-  // (lead) of magnitude L, if L > predecessor's duration, the constraint
-  // implies B.ES < A.ES — logically impossible without an SS/SF edge.
-  // Surface as a warning so the user can correct it; analyzer still
-  // computes a schedule (the warning is informational).
-  for (const e of edges) {
-    if (!e.lag || e.lag.amount >= 0) continue;
-    const src = activities.find((a) => a.id === e.source);
-    if (!src?.duration) continue;
-    const leadDays = -toDays(e.lag, sprintDays);
-    const srcDurDays = toDays(src.duration.m, sprintDays);
-    if (e.type === 'FS' && leadDays > srcDurDays) {
-      warn(
-        e.lineNumber,
-        `Lead (${-e.lag.amount}${e.lag.unit}) exceeds predecessor "${src.name}" duration — ` +
-          `the FS edge implies the successor starts before the predecessor.`
-      );
-    }
-  }
-
-  // Topological sort (Kahn's algorithm). On cycle, emit diagnostic.
-  const topo: string[] = [];
-  const inDegree = new Map<string, number>();
-  for (const a of activities)
-    inDegree.set(a.id, predecessors.get(a.id)!.length);
-  const queue: string[] = [];
-  for (const [id, deg] of inDegree) if (deg === 0) queue.push(id);
-
-  while (queue.length > 0) {
-    const id = queue.shift()!;
-    topo.push(id);
-    for (const next of successors.get(id) ?? []) {
-      const deg = (inDegree.get(next) ?? 0) - 1;
-      inDegree.set(next, deg);
-      if (deg === 0) queue.push(next);
-    }
-  }
-
-  if (topo.length < activities.length) {
-    // Surviving in-degree > 0 means cycle. Pick the first surviving id.
-    const culprit = activities.find((a) => (inDegree.get(a.id) ?? 0) > 0);
-    if (culprit) {
-      error(culprit.lineNumber, `Cycle detected involving "${culprit.name}".`);
-    } else {
-      error(0, `Cycle detected in PERT graph.`);
-    }
-    // Bail out — analysis on a cyclic graph is meaningless.
-    return emptyResolved(parsed, diagnostics);
-  }
-
-  // Expand all estimates up-front (canonical days).
-  const expandedById = new Map<string, ExpandedEstimate | null>();
-  for (const a of activities) {
-    if (a.duration === null) {
-      expandedById.set(a.id, null);
-      continue;
-    }
-    expandedById.set(
-      a.id,
-      expandEstimate(
-        a.duration,
-        parsed.options.confidence,
-        a.confidence,
-        sprintDays
-      )
-    );
-  }
-
-  // Compute the poisoned set: any activity transitively downstream of a
-  // TBD activity. Run BFS from TBD nodes outward.
-  const poisoned = new Set<string>();
-  for (const a of activities) {
-    if (a.duration === null) {
-      const stack = [a.id];
-      poisoned.add(a.id);
-      while (stack.length > 0) {
-        const id = stack.pop()!;
-        for (const next of successors.get(id) ?? []) {
-          if (!poisoned.has(next)) {
-            poisoned.add(next);
-            stack.push(next);
-          }
-        }
-      }
-    }
-  }
-
-  // Forward pass: ES/EF for each non-poisoned activity, in topo order.
-  // Each incoming edge contributes a lower bound according to its type:
-  //   FS:  B.ES ≥ A.EF + lag        (constrains ES)
-  //   SS:  B.ES ≥ A.ES + lag        (constrains ES)
-  //   FF:  B.EF ≥ A.EF + lag        (constrains EF)
-  //   SF:  B.EF ≥ A.ES + lag        (constrains EF)
-  // ES then EF are picked so EF − ES = duration, and both bounds hold.
-  const es = new Map<string, number | null>();
-  const ef = new Map<string, number | null>();
-  for (const id of topo) {
-    if (poisoned.has(id)) {
-      es.set(id, null);
-      ef.set(id, null);
-      continue;
-    }
-    const expanded = expandedById.get(id)!;
-    const dur = expanded.mean;
-
-    let esLower = 0;
-    let efLower = -Infinity;
-    for (const edge of incomingEdges.get(id) ?? []) {
-      const aEs = es.get(edge.source);
-      const aEf = ef.get(edge.source);
-      if (aEs == null || aEf == null) continue;
-      const lagDays = edge.lag ? toDays(edge.lag, sprintDays) : 0;
-      switch (edge.type) {
-        case 'FS':
-          esLower = Math.max(esLower, aEf + lagDays);
-          break;
-        case 'SS':
-          esLower = Math.max(esLower, aEs + lagDays);
-          break;
-        case 'FF':
-          efLower = Math.max(efLower, aEf + lagDays);
-          break;
-        case 'SF':
-          efLower = Math.max(efLower, aEs + lagDays);
-          break;
-      }
-    }
-    // Pin EF = ES + dur, then bump ES forward if EF-side constraints
-    // demand a later finish than ES + dur supports.
-    let esVal = esLower;
-    let efVal = esVal + dur;
-    if (efLower > efVal) {
-      efVal = efLower;
-      esVal = efVal - dur;
-    }
-    es.set(id, esVal);
-    ef.set(id, efVal);
-  }
-
-  // Project μ = max(EF) over all non-poisoned activities. Pure FS graphs
-  // have monotonic EF along edges so terminals always carry the project
-  // end, but SS/FF/SF edges break that invariant — a non-terminal
-  // predecessor can finish after its SS-successor. Considering every
-  // activity gives the right answer for any mix of dep types.
-  // If ANY terminal is poisoned, projectMu becomes null — the actual
-  // project end is unknowable until TBDs are estimated. Per AC2.3 +
-  // AC3.3a: poisoned terminals invalidate the analytical projectMu.
-  let projectMuDays: number | null = null;
-  let endId: string | null = null;
-  let anyTerminalPoisoned = false;
-  for (const a of activities) {
-    const isTerminal = (successors.get(a.id) ?? []).length === 0;
-    if (poisoned.has(a.id)) {
-      if (isTerminal) anyTerminalPoisoned = true;
-      continue;
-    }
-    const efVal = ef.get(a.id);
-    if (efVal != null && (projectMuDays === null || efVal > projectMuDays)) {
-      projectMuDays = efVal;
-      endId = a.id;
-    }
-  }
-  if (anyTerminalPoisoned) {
-    projectMuDays = null;
-    endId = null;
-  }
-
-  // Backward pass: LS/LF.
-  const ls = new Map<string, number | null>();
-  const lf = new Map<string, number | null>();
-  // Initialize all non-poisoned activities' LF to projectMu (or to their
-  // own EF when they are dead-ends with smaller EF — that gives them
-  // slack equal to projectMu - EF). Standard PERT convention is LF =
-  // projectMu for terminal nodes, then back-propagate via min.
-  for (const a of activities) {
-    if (poisoned.has(a.id) || projectMuDays === null) {
-      ls.set(a.id, null);
-      lf.set(a.id, null);
-    } else {
-      lf.set(a.id, projectMuDays);
-      const exp = expandedById.get(a.id)!;
-      ls.set(a.id, projectMuDays - exp.mean);
-    }
-  }
-  // Walk topo in reverse. Each outgoing edge contributes an upper bound:
-  //   FS:  A.LF ≤ B.LS − lag
-  //   SS:  A.LS ≤ B.LS − lag
-  //   FF:  A.LF ≤ B.LF − lag
-  //   SF:  A.LS ≤ B.LF − lag
-  // LS then LF are picked so LF − LS = duration, and both bounds hold.
-  for (let i = topo.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
-    // In-bounds by loop guard.
-    const id = topo[i]!;
-    if (poisoned.has(id) || projectMuDays === null) continue;
-    const out = outgoingEdges.get(id) ?? [];
-    if (out.length === 0) continue; // already initialized to projectMu
-
-    const exp = expandedById.get(id)!;
-    const dur = exp.mean;
-
-    let lfUpper = Infinity;
-    let lsUpper = Infinity;
-    for (const edge of out) {
-      const bLs = ls.get(edge.target);
-      const bLf = lf.get(edge.target);
-      if (bLs == null || bLf == null) continue;
-      const lagDays = edge.lag ? toDays(edge.lag, sprintDays) : 0;
-      switch (edge.type) {
-        case 'FS':
-          lfUpper = Math.min(lfUpper, bLs - lagDays);
-          break;
-        case 'SS':
-          lsUpper = Math.min(lsUpper, bLs - lagDays);
-          break;
-        case 'FF':
-          lfUpper = Math.min(lfUpper, bLf - lagDays);
-          break;
-        case 'SF':
-          lsUpper = Math.min(lsUpper, bLf - lagDays);
-          break;
-      }
-    }
-    let lfVal = lfUpper;
-    let lsVal = lfVal - dur;
-    if (lsUpper < lsVal) {
-      lsVal = lsUpper;
-      lfVal = lsVal + dur;
-    }
-    lf.set(id, lfVal);
-    ls.set(id, lsVal);
-  }
-
-  // Critical path = walk backward from `endId` taking the predecessor
-  // with maximum EF (ties broken by predecessor source-order). This
-  // gives a single chain through the M-world longest path.
-  const criticalPath: string[] = [];
-  if (endId !== null) {
-    let cursor: string | null = endId;
-    while (cursor !== null) {
-      criticalPath.unshift(cursor);
-      const preds: string[] = predecessors.get(cursor) ?? [];
-      if (preds.length === 0) break;
-      let bestPred: string | null = null;
-      let bestEf = -Infinity;
-      for (const pid of preds) {
-        const efp = ef.get(pid);
-        if (efp != null && efp > bestEf) {
-          bestEf = efp;
-          bestPred = pid;
-        }
-      }
-      cursor = bestPred;
-    }
-  }
-  const criticalSet = new Set(criticalPath);
-
-  // Project σ: sqrt(sum of variances on critical path).
-  let projectSigmaDays: number | null = null;
-  if (projectMuDays !== null && criticalPath.length > 0) {
-    let varSum = 0;
-    for (const id of criticalPath) {
-      const exp = expandedById.get(id);
-      if (exp) varSum += exp.sigma * exp.sigma;
-    }
-    projectSigmaDays = Math.sqrt(varSum);
-  }
-
-  // Render activity records (convert canonical days back to options.timeUnit).
-  const unit = parsed.options.timeUnit;
-  const resolvedActivities: ResolvedActivity[] = activities.map((a) => {
-    const exp = expandedById.get(a.id);
-    const slackDays =
-      ls.get(a.id) !== null && es.get(a.id) !== null
-        ? (ls.get(a.id) as number) - (es.get(a.id) as number)
-        : null;
-    return {
-      activity: a,
-      es: nullableToUnit(es.get(a.id) ?? null, unit, sprintDays),
-      ef: nullableToUnit(ef.get(a.id) ?? null, unit, sprintDays),
-      ls: nullableToUnit(ls.get(a.id) ?? null, unit, sprintDays),
-      lf: nullableToUnit(lf.get(a.id) ?? null, unit, sprintDays),
-      slack: nullableToUnit(slackDays, unit, sprintDays),
-      isCriticalPath: criticalSet.has(a.id),
-      mu: exp ? fromDays(exp.mean, unit, sprintDays) : null,
-      sigma: exp ? fromDays(exp.sigma, unit, sprintDays) : null,
-      criticality: null,
-      isAuthored: a.duration !== null && !a.duration.mOnly && !a.isMilestone,
-    };
-  });
-
-  // Resolved groups: μ/σ rolled up along a path through the group. When
-  // MC is on, the rollup uses the modal-longest-path observed across
-  // trials; otherwise the M-world critical path.
-  let monteCarloResult: MonteCarloResult | null = null;
-
-  // Auto-derive mode from data: monte-carlo when at least one
-  // non-milestone activity carries a duration. M-only activities count —
-  // the parser fills O and P from `default-confidence`, and analytical
-  // mode already uses those spreads to compute project σ.
-  const dataDrivenMC = activities.some((a) => hasDuration(a));
-  // Trials clamp: nonsense percentiles from low-N samples → fall back
-  // to analytical and surface the reason in the caption.
-  const trialsClamped = dataDrivenMC && parsed.options.trials < 100;
-  let mode: 'monte-carlo' | 'analytical' =
-    dataDrivenMC && !trialsClamped ? 'monte-carlo' : 'analytical';
-
-  if (mode === 'monte-carlo') {
-    const allTerminalsPoisoned = activities
-      .filter((a) => (successors.get(a.id) ?? []).length === 0)
-      .every((a) => poisoned.has(a.id));
-    if (allTerminalsPoisoned && activities.length > 0) {
-      // Silently downgrade — the TBD-fallback caption already names
-      // the unestimated activities. Erroring would block render even
-      // when the user didn't ask for MC explicitly (auto-derive).
-      mode = 'analytical';
-    } else {
-      const expandedArr: ExpandedActivity[] = [];
-      for (const a of activities) {
-        const exp = expandedById.get(a.id);
-        if (exp) expandedArr.push({ id: a.id, o: exp.o, m: exp.m, p: exp.p });
-      }
-      // Build a preliminary ResolvedPert just for the simulator's graph
-      // shape. The simulator uses only `activities` (for ids) and `edges`.
-      const prelim: ResolvedPert = {
-        options: parsed.options,
-        activities: resolvedActivities,
-        edges: edges.slice(),
-        groups: [],
-        tagGroups: parsed.tagGroups.slice(),
-        mode: 'monte-carlo',
-        summaryRows: null,
-        projectSubtitle: null,
-        projectMu: null,
-        projectSigma: null,
-        criticalPath,
-        projectStart: null,
-        monteCarloResult: null,
-        expandedActivities: expandedArr,
-        diagnostics: [],
-        error: null,
-      };
-      monteCarloResult = simulateCanonical(prelim, expandedArr, {
-        trials: parsed.options.trials,
-        seed: parsed.options.seed,
-      });
-      // Populate per-activity criticality on the resolved activities.
-      for (const ra of resolvedActivities) {
-        if (poisoned.has(ra.activity.id)) continue;
-        const c = monteCarloResult.criticalityByActivity[ra.activity.id];
-        ra.criticality = typeof c === 'number' ? c : null;
-      }
-      // True tornado swings — for each activity, hold every other at μ
-      // and re-run the deterministic forward pass twice (at O, then at P)
-      // to measure how much the project end-date moves. Stored in the MC
-      // result so the renderer can paint two-sided bars.
-      monteCarloResult.tornadoSwings = computeTornadoSwings(
-        activities,
-        topo,
-        incomingEdges,
-        expandedById,
-        poisoned,
-        monteCarloResult.criticalityByActivity,
-        sprintDays
-      );
-    }
-  }
-
-  // For hammock rollup: use MC-derived modal-longest-path when MC is on.
-  const rollupSet =
-    monteCarloResult && monteCarloResult.modalCriticalPath.length > 0
-      ? new Set(monteCarloResult.modalCriticalPath)
-      : criticalSet;
-  const resolvedById = new Map(
-    resolvedActivities.map((r) => [r.activity.id, r])
-  );
-  const resolvedGroups: ResolvedGroup[] = parsed.groups.map((g) =>
-    rollupGroup(g, expandedById, resolvedById, rollupSet, unit, sprintDays)
-  );
-
-  // Always populate the public expanded-activities cache so Workers
-  // (Phase 3b) can re-run the simulator without needing the original
-  // ParsedPert. TBDs are omitted; the simulator already treats absent
-  // entries as zero-duration.
-  const publicExpanded: ExpandedActivity[] = [];
-  for (const a of activities) {
-    const exp = expandedById.get(a.id);
-    if (exp) publicExpanded.push({ id: a.id, o: exp.o, m: exp.m, p: exp.p });
-  }
-
-  const projectMuOut =
-    projectMuDays === null ? null : fromDays(projectMuDays, unit, sprintDays);
-  const projectSigmaOut =
-    projectSigmaDays === null
-      ? null
-      : fromDays(projectSigmaDays, unit, sprintDays);
-
-  // Derive projectStart from the optional anchor. Renderer reads this
-  // directly — no mode-specific logic in the presentation layer.
-  //   forward  → literal start-date
-  //   backward → end-date − projectMu (in calendar days), rounded once
-  //   no anchor or backward+TBD upstream → null
-  let projectStart: string | null = null;
-  const anchor = parsed.options.anchor;
-  if (anchor !== null) {
-    if (anchor.kind === 'forward') {
-      projectStart = anchor.date;
-    } else if (anchor.kind === 'backward' && projectMuDays !== null) {
-      projectStart = addCalendarDays(anchor.date, -projectMuDays);
-    }
-  }
-
-  const summaryRows = buildSummary({
-    mode,
-    projectMu: projectMuOut,
-    projectSigma: projectSigmaOut,
-    unit,
-    parsedActivities: activities,
-    monteCarloResult,
-    trialsClamped,
-    anchor: parsed.options.anchor,
-    today: parsed.options.today,
-    ...(sprintDays !== undefined && { sprintDays }),
-  });
-
-  const projectSubtitle = buildProjectSubtitle({
-    projectMu: projectMuOut,
-    projectSigma: projectSigmaOut,
-    unit,
-    anchor: parsed.options.anchor,
-  });
-
-  return {
-    options: parsed.options,
-    activities: resolvedActivities,
-    edges: edges.slice(),
-    groups: resolvedGroups,
-    tagGroups: parsed.tagGroups.slice(),
-    mode,
-    summaryRows,
-    projectSubtitle,
-    projectMu: projectMuOut,
-    projectSigma: projectSigmaOut,
-    criticalPath,
-    projectStart,
-    monteCarloResult,
-    expandedActivities: publicExpanded,
-    diagnostics,
-    error: parsed.error ?? firstFatal(diagnostics),
-  };
-}
-
-/**
- * True iff the activity has a duration we can simulate — either an
- * explicit O/M/P triple or an M-only value (whose O/P are filled from
- * `default-confidence`). Milestones report false (zero-duration
- * sentinels); zero-duration M-only activities also report false since
- * factor × 0 = 0 → no spread for MC to simulate.
- */
-function hasDuration(a: PertActivity): boolean {
-  if (a.duration === null || a.isMilestone) return false;
-  if (a.duration.mOnly) return a.duration.m.amount > 0;
-  return true;
-}
-
-/**
- * Type-aware deterministic forward pass: project end (max EF across
- * activities) in canonical days, given a duration per activity.
- * Mirrors the edge-aware schedule math in `analyzePert` so SS / FF /
- * SF / lag are honored. Poisoned activities contribute 0 days but
- * still propagate edges (we treat them as zero-duration sentinels).
- */
-function computeProjectEndDays(
-  activities: readonly PertActivity[],
-  topo: string[],
-  incomingEdges: Map<string, PertEdge[]>,
-  durations: Map<string, number>,
-  poisoned: Set<string>,
-  sprintDays: number | undefined
-): number {
-  const es = new Map<string, number>();
-  const ef = new Map<string, number>();
-  for (const id of topo) {
-    const dur = poisoned.has(id) ? 0 : (durations.get(id) ?? 0);
-    let esLower = 0;
-    let efLower = -Infinity;
-    for (const edge of incomingEdges.get(id) ?? []) {
-      const aEs = es.get(edge.source) ?? 0;
-      const aEf = ef.get(edge.source) ?? 0;
-      const lag = edge.lag ? toDays(edge.lag, sprintDays) : 0;
-      switch (edge.type) {
-        case 'FS':
-          esLower = Math.max(esLower, aEf + lag);
-          break;
-        case 'SS':
-          esLower = Math.max(esLower, aEs + lag);
-          break;
-        case 'FF':
-          efLower = Math.max(efLower, aEf + lag);
-          break;
-        case 'SF':
-          efLower = Math.max(efLower, aEs + lag);
-          break;
-      }
-    }
-    let esVal = esLower;
-    let efVal = esVal + dur;
-    if (efLower > efVal) {
-      efVal = efLower;
-      esVal = efVal - dur;
-    }
-    es.set(id, esVal);
-    ef.set(id, efVal);
-  }
-  let projectEnd = 0;
-  for (const a of activities) {
-    const e = ef.get(a.id) ?? 0;
-    if (e > projectEnd) projectEnd = e;
-  }
-  return projectEnd;
-}
-
-/**
- * Build true two-sided tornado swings. For each activity:
- *   1. Hold every other activity at its μ
- *   2. Run the forward pass once with this activity = O → low end
- *   3. Run again with this activity = P → high end
- *   4. lowSwing = baseline - low end, highSwing = high end - baseline
- *
- * Returns an array sorted descending by total swing. Milestones,
- * poisoned activities, and activities with zero swing in both
- * directions are excluded.
- */
-function computeTornadoSwings(
-  activities: readonly PertActivity[],
-  topo: string[],
-  incomingEdges: Map<string, PertEdge[]>,
-  expandedById: Map<string, ExpandedEstimate | null>,
-  poisoned: Set<string>,
-  criticalityByActivity: Record<string, number>,
-  sprintDays?: number
-): TornadoSwing[] {
-  const meansById = new Map<string, number>();
-  for (const a of activities) {
-    if (poisoned.has(a.id)) continue;
-    const exp = expandedById.get(a.id);
-    if (exp) meansById.set(a.id, exp.mean);
-  }
-  const baseline = computeProjectEndDays(
-    activities,
-    topo,
-    incomingEdges,
-    meansById,
-    poisoned,
-    sprintDays
-  );
-  const swings: TornadoSwing[] = [];
-  for (const a of activities) {
-    if (a.isMilestone || a.duration === null || poisoned.has(a.id)) continue;
-    const exp = expandedById.get(a.id);
-    if (!exp) continue;
-    // O ≈ M means zero-width swing — skip the work AND skip the row.
-    if (exp.o === exp.m && exp.p === exp.m) continue;
-
-    const lowMap = new Map(meansById);
-    lowMap.set(a.id, exp.o);
-    const lowEnd = computeProjectEndDays(
-      activities,
-      topo,
-      incomingEdges,
-      lowMap,
-      poisoned,
-      sprintDays
-    );
-
-    const highMap = new Map(meansById);
-    highMap.set(a.id, exp.p);
-    const highEnd = computeProjectEndDays(
-      activities,
-      topo,
-      incomingEdges,
-      highMap,
-      poisoned,
-      sprintDays
-    );
-
-    const lowSwing = Math.max(0, baseline - lowEnd);
-    const highSwing = Math.max(0, highEnd - baseline);
-    if (lowSwing === 0 && highSwing === 0) continue;
-    const c = criticalityByActivity[a.id];
-    swings.push({
-      id: a.id,
-      name: a.name,
-      lowSwing,
-      highSwing,
-      criticality: typeof c === 'number' ? c : null,
-    });
-  }
-  swings.sort((a, b) => b.lowSwing + b.highSwing - (a.lowSwing + a.highSwing));
-  return swings;
-}
-
-// ============================================================
-// Helpers
-// ============================================================
-
-function nullableToUnit(
-  value: number | null,
-  unit: DurationUnit,
-  sprintDays?: number
-): number | null {
-  return value === null ? null : fromDays(value, unit, sprintDays);
-}
-
-function firstFatal(diagnostics: DgmoError[]): string | null {
-  const f = diagnostics.find((d) => d.severity === 'error');
-  return f ? f.message : null;
-}
-
-function rollupGroup(
-  group: PertGroup,
-  expandedById: Map<string, ExpandedEstimate | null>,
-  resolvedById: Map<string, ResolvedActivity>,
-  criticalSet: Set<string>,
-  unit: DurationUnit,
-  sprintDays?: number
-): ResolvedGroup {
-  let muDays = 0;
-  let varDays = 0;
-  let usable = false;
-  for (const id of group.activityIds) {
-    if (!criticalSet.has(id)) continue;
-    const exp = expandedById.get(id);
-    if (!exp) continue;
-    muDays += exp.mean;
-    varDays += exp.sigma * exp.sigma;
-    usable = true;
-  }
-
-  // Schedule envelope across member activities (in source unit, not days).
-  let es: number | null = null;
-  let ef: number | null = null;
-  let ls: number | null = null;
-  let lf: number | null = null;
-  let criticality: number | null = null;
-  for (const id of group.activityIds) {
-    const r = resolvedById.get(id);
-    if (!r) continue;
-    if (r.es !== null) es = es === null ? r.es : Math.min(es, r.es);
-    if (r.ef !== null) ef = ef === null ? r.ef : Math.max(ef, r.ef);
-    if (r.ls !== null) ls = ls === null ? r.ls : Math.min(ls, r.ls);
-    if (r.lf !== null) lf = lf === null ? r.lf : Math.max(lf, r.lf);
-    if (r.criticality !== null) {
-      criticality =
-        criticality === null
-          ? r.criticality
-          : Math.max(criticality, r.criticality);
-    }
-  }
-  const slack = ls !== null && es !== null ? ls - es : null;
-
-  return {
-    group,
-    rolledMu: usable ? fromDays(muDays, unit, sprintDays) : null,
-    rolledSigma: usable ? fromDays(Math.sqrt(varDays), unit, sprintDays) : null,
-    entries: [],
-    exits: [],
-    es,
-    ef,
-    ls,
-    lf,
-    slack,
-    criticality,
-  };
-}
-
-// ============================================================
-// Caption (project-stats summary) builder
-// ============================================================
-
-/**
- * Build the project-stats caption emitted as `ResolvedPert.summaryRows`.
- * Each `CaptionRow` is one bullet in the rendered caption box. Returns
- * `null` when the analyzer produced no output (e.g. cycle bailout).
- */
-export interface BuildSummaryInput {
-  mode: 'monte-carlo' | 'analytical';
-  projectMu: number | null;
-  projectSigma: number | null;
-  unit: DurationUnit;
-  parsedActivities: readonly PertActivity[];
-  monteCarloResult: MonteCarloResult | null;
-  trialsClamped: boolean;
-  /**
-   * Date anchor — when set, "Expected duration" becomes a date and
-   * Monte-Carlo percentiles render as ISO dates instead of durations.
-   * Forward → finish-date rows; backward → latest-safe-start rows.
-   */
-  anchor?: Anchor;
-  /**
-   * Parse-time "today" (ISO YYYY-MM-DD). Used to flag backward-mode
-   * latest-safe-start rows that have already passed. Empty string is
-   * treated as "unknown" — no past flagging.
-   */
-  today: string;
-  /**
-   * Days-per-sprint when sprint mode is active. Used to convert
-   * Monte-Carlo percentile durations (canonical days) into the
-   * displayed unit when `unit === 's'`.
-   */
-  sprintDays?: number;
-}
-
-/**
- * Round a fractional canonical-days duration toward whichever direction
- * pushes the resulting date further from "now":
- *   - forward  → ceil (the finish lands later, more conservative)
- *   - backward → ceil (the latest-safe start lands earlier, more
- *                       conservative — `end_date − ceil(d)` is smaller)
- *
- * Both modes ceil because callers apply opposite signs (`+` vs `−`).
- * Keeping the rule in one helper avoids drift between caption math
- * and S-curve math.
- */
-function roundConservative(
-  durationDays: number,
-  _mode: 'forward' | 'backward'
-): number {
-  return Math.ceil(durationDays);
-}
-
-export function buildSummary(input: BuildSummaryInput): CaptionRow[] | null {
-  const {
-    mode,
-    projectMu,
-    projectSigma,
-    unit,
-    parsedActivities,
-    monteCarloResult,
-    trialsClamped,
-    sprintDays,
-    today,
-  } = input;
-  const anchor = input.anchor ?? null;
-
-  if (parsedActivities.length === 0) return null;
-
-  // Indeterminate projectMu — TBD upstream of the sink.
-  if (projectMu === null) {
-    // Backward + TBD: spec §13A.12 mandates `?` placeholders for both
-    // Expected duration AND each percentile latest-safe start so the
-    // caption shape stays parallel to the feasible case (one top row +
-    // three percentile sub-rows).
-    if (anchor?.kind === 'backward') {
-      return [
-        { text: 'Expected duration: ?', level: 0 },
-        { text: 'P50 latest-safe start: ?', level: 0 },
-        { text: 'P80 latest-safe start: ?', level: 0 },
-        { text: 'P95 latest-safe start: ?', level: 0 },
-      ];
-    }
-    // Forward / unanchored: existing wording — names the unestimated
-    // activities so the author knows what to fill in.
-    const tbdCount = parsedActivities.filter(
-      (a) => a.duration === null && !a.isMilestone
-    ).length;
-    return [
-      {
-        text: `Expected duration unknown — ${tbdCount} ${
-          tbdCount === 1 ? 'activity has' : 'activities have'
-        } no estimate.`,
-        level: 0,
-      },
-    ];
-  }
-
-  const rows: CaptionRow[] = [];
-  const mc = mode === 'monte-carlo' && monteCarloResult !== null;
-  const sigmaPositive = projectSigma !== null && projectSigma > 0;
-  const showMcDetail = mc && sigmaPositive;
-
-  // 1. Expected duration / finish / start — fold σ into a "(± X)"
-  // parenthetical when MC ran with σ > 0. Reads more naturally than a
-  // separate "Standard deviation:" bullet; for a roughly-normal
-  // distribution ±1σ covers ~68% of outcomes.
-  const sigmaParen = showMcDetail
-    ? ` (± ${roundForCaption(projectSigma!)} ${pluralizeUnit(projectSigma!, unit)})`
-    : '';
-  if (anchor?.kind === 'forward') {
-    const projectMuDays = projectMu * unitToDays(unit);
-    rows.push({
-      text: `Expected finish: ${addCalendarDays(anchor.date, projectMuDays)}${sigmaParen}.`,
-      level: 0,
-    });
-  } else if (anchor?.kind === 'backward') {
-    const projectMuDays = projectMu * unitToDays(unit);
-    rows.push({
-      text: `Expected start: ${addCalendarDays(anchor.date, -projectMuDays)}${sigmaParen}.`,
-      level: 0,
-    });
-  } else {
-    const muStr = `${roundForCaption(projectMu)} ${pluralizeUnit(projectMu, unit)}`;
-    rows.push({
-      text: `Expected duration: ${muStr}${sigmaParen}.`,
-      level: 0,
-    });
-  }
-
-  // 2. Percentiles — uniform shape per spec §13A.10/§13A.12:
-  //   - Forward:    P{X} finish: <date>
-  //   - Backward:   P{X} latest-safe start: <date> [(latest-safe start has passed)]
-  //   - Unanchored: P{X}: <duration>
-  // Sub-rows (level 1) so they indent under the preceding "Expected …"
-  // row, matching the existing visual rhythm.
-  if (showMcDetail) {
-    const percentiles: Array<{ pct: 50 | 80 | 95; days: number }> = [
-      { pct: 50, days: monteCarloResult!.p50 },
-      { pct: 80, days: monteCarloResult!.p80 },
-      { pct: 95, days: monteCarloResult!.p95 },
-    ];
-    if (anchor?.kind === 'forward') {
-      for (const { pct, days } of percentiles) {
-        const offsetDays = roundConservative(days, 'forward');
-        const date = addCalendarDays(anchor.date, offsetDays);
-        rows.push({ text: `P${pct} finish: ${date}.`, level: 1 });
-      }
-    } else if (anchor?.kind === 'backward') {
-      for (const { pct, days } of percentiles) {
-        const offsetDays = roundConservative(days, 'backward');
-        const date = addCalendarDays(anchor.date, -offsetDays);
-        // ISO YYYY-MM-DD strings are lexicographically sortable, so a
-        // string compare is the correct past-date check here.
-        const isPast = today.length > 0 && date < today;
-        const suffix = isPast ? ' (latest-safe start has passed)' : '';
-        const row: CaptionRow = {
-          text: `P${pct} latest-safe start: ${date}${suffix}`,
-          level: 1,
-        };
-        if (isPast) row.isPast = true;
-        rows.push(row);
-      }
-    } else {
-      for (const { pct, days } of percentiles) {
-        const v = fromDays(days, unit, sprintDays);
-        rows.push({ text: `P${pct}: ${formatPercentile(v, unit)}.`, level: 1 });
-      }
-    }
-  }
-
-  // 3. Zero-variance fallback (replaces percentile rows when O=M=P
-  // across every authored activity).
-  if (mc && projectSigma === 0) {
-    const filtered: CaptionRow[] = rows.filter((r) =>
-      r.text.startsWith('Expected ')
-    );
-    filtered.push({
-      text: '(No variance in estimates — all activities have O = M = P.)',
-      level: 0,
-    });
-    return filtered;
-  }
-
-  // 4. Trials caveat (mode auto-derived to MC then clamped back).
-  if (trialsClamped) {
-    rows.push({
-      text: 'Insufficient trials configured (`trials` < 100) — falling back to deterministic analysis.',
-      level: 0,
-    });
-  }
-
-  return rows;
-}
-
-/**
- * Build the one-line project subtitle rendered under the diagram title.
- * Distinct from `buildSummary` because the subtitle sits in the title
- * region (always visible, independent of the Analysis-row toggle) and
- * collapses the σ + duration restatement into a single bullet-free line.
- *
- * Shape per mode (§13A.7):
- *   - Forward:    `Expected finish: <date> · ≈ <μ> <unit> of work (± <σ>)`
- *   - Backward:   `Expected start: <date> · ≈ <μ> <unit> lead time (± <σ>)`
- *   - Unanchored: `≈ <μ> <unit> (± <σ>)`
- *
- * Returns null when projectMu is indeterminate (TBD upstream) AND no
- * anchor is present — there's nothing useful to say. With an anchor we
- * still render `Expected finish: ? · ≈ ? <unit>` to preserve the slot.
- */
-export function buildProjectSubtitle(input: {
-  projectMu: number | null;
-  projectSigma: number | null;
-  unit: DurationUnit;
-  anchor?: Anchor;
-}): string | null {
-  const anchor = input.anchor ?? null;
-  const { projectMu, projectSigma, unit } = input;
-
-  const sigmaPositive = projectSigma !== null && projectSigma > 0;
-  const sigmaParen = sigmaPositive
-    ? ` (± ${roundForCaption(projectSigma!)})`
-    : '';
-
-  if (projectMu === null) {
-    // Anchored + TBD: keep the framing prefix, mark the math as ?.
-    if (anchor?.kind === 'forward') {
-      return `Expected finish: ? · ≈ ? ${pluralizeUnit(2, unit)} of work`;
-    }
-    if (anchor?.kind === 'backward') {
-      return `Expected start: ? · ≈ ? ${pluralizeUnit(2, unit)} lead time`;
-    }
-    // Unanchored + TBD: surface that the total is unknown. The per-node
-    // `?` placeholders convey which activities are missing estimates.
-    return `≈ ? ${pluralizeUnit(2, unit)}`;
-  }
-
-  const muStr = `${roundForCaption(projectMu)} ${pluralizeUnit(projectMu, unit)}`;
-
-  if (anchor?.kind === 'forward') {
-    const projectMuDays = projectMu * unitToDays(unit);
-    return `Expected finish: ${addCalendarDays(anchor.date, projectMuDays)} · ≈ ${muStr} of work${sigmaParen}`;
-  }
-  if (anchor?.kind === 'backward') {
-    const projectMuDays = projectMu * unitToDays(unit);
-    return `Expected start: ${addCalendarDays(anchor.date, -projectMuDays)} · ≈ ${muStr} lead time${sigmaParen}`;
-  }
-  return `≈ ${muStr}${sigmaParen}`;
-}
-
-function roundForCaption(n: number): string {
-  let rounded: number;
-  const abs = Math.abs(n);
-  if (abs < 10) rounded = Math.round(n * 100) / 100;
-  else if (abs < 100) rounded = Math.round(n * 10) / 10;
-  else rounded = Math.round(n);
-  // Trim trailing zeros after the decimal: 29.20 → 29.2, 29.00 → 29.
-  const str = rounded.toString();
-  return str.includes('.') ? str.replace(/\.?0+$/, '') : str;
-}
-
-const UNIT_WORDS: Record<DurationUnit, [string, string]> = {
-  min: ['minute', 'minutes'],
-  h: ['hour', 'hours'],
-  d: ['day', 'days'],
-  bd: ['business day', 'business days'],
-  w: ['week', 'weeks'],
-  m: ['month', 'months'],
-  q: ['quarter', 'quarters'],
-  y: ['year', 'years'],
-  s: ['sprint', 'sprints'],
-};
-
-function pluralizeUnit(value: number, unit: DurationUnit): string {
-  const [singular, plural] = UNIT_WORDS[unit];
-  return roundForCaption(value) === '1' ? singular : plural;
-}
-
-function formatPercentile(value: number, unit: DurationUnit): string {
-  return `${roundForCaption(value)} ${pluralizeUnit(value, unit)}`;
-}
-
-function emptyResolved(
-  parsed: ParsedPert,
-  diagnostics: DgmoError[]
-): ResolvedPert {
-  return {
-    options: parsed.options,
-    activities: parsed.activities.map((a) => ({
-      activity: a,
-      es: null,
-      ef: null,
-      ls: null,
-      lf: null,
-      slack: null,
-      isCriticalPath: false,
-      mu: null,
-      sigma: null,
-      criticality: null,
-      isAuthored: false,
-    })),
-    edges: parsed.edges.slice(),
-    groups: parsed.groups.map((g) => ({
-      group: g,
-      rolledMu: null,
-      rolledSigma: null,
-      entries: [],
-      exits: [],
-      es: null,
-      ef: null,
-      ls: null,
-      lf: null,
-      slack: null,
-      criticality: null,
-    })),
-    tagGroups: parsed.tagGroups.slice(),
-    mode: 'analytical',
-    summaryRows: null,
-    projectSubtitle: null,
-    projectMu: null,
-    projectSigma: null,
-    criticalPath: [],
-    projectStart: null,
-    monteCarloResult: null,
-    expandedActivities: [],
-    diagnostics,
-    error: firstFatal(diagnostics) ?? parsed.error,
-  };
-}
-
-// Re-export `_unused` markers so lint doesn't complain (PertEdge is read above).
-export type { PertEdge };