@coinrithm/mcp-trading 0.7.2 → 0.7.4

package/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -1,113 +1,171 @@
-# Changelog
-
-All notable changes to `@coinrithm/mcp-trading` are documented here. The package
-ships two binaries — `coinrithm-mcp` (the MCP server) and `coinrithm-agent` (the
-self-host agent runner) — versioned together. The CoinRithm **API contract** is
-versioned separately (see `openapi.yaml` `info.version`, currently `1.5.0`).
-
-## 0.7.1
-
-Docs + registry-metadata release; no tool behavior changes.
-
-- **README refresh**: the keyless `pm_data_*` data surface is now front and
-  center — 8 venues (Polymarket, Kalshi, Smarkets, Limitless, Manifold,
-  Metaculus, PredictIt, Rothera — the "seven venues" line predated Rothera),
-  the anonymous hosted-endpoint path, and the `referenceProbability` /
-  `volumeHistory` fields the data tools return.
-- **`server.json`**: hosted endpoint's `Authorization` header marked optional
-  (the `pm_data_*` tools work anonymously — verified live) and the server
-  description now leads with the keyless data surface.
-- Ships the post-0.7.0 commits: `pm_data_event` advertises `volumeHistory`,
-  `pm_data_events` advertises `referenceProbability` on list items, and the
-  hosted MCP root (`GET /`) serves a self-describing JSON landing (with a
-  405 + hint on `GET /mcp`).
-
-## 0.7.0
-
-(Retroactive entry — released 2026-07-05 without a changelog note.)
-
-- **Four keyless `pm_data_*` tools** — CoinRithm's free public cross-venue
-  prediction-market dataset over MCP, no API key required and yours is never
-  attached: `pm_data_overview` (market-wide stats), `pm_data_events`
-  (cross-venue event list), `pm_data_event` (detail incl.
-  `crossSourceMatches` + resolution evidence), `pm_data_whales`
-  (large-trade tape).
-
-## 0.5.0
-
-Agent-runner quality + reliability release. `coinrithm-agent` got materially
-smarter and less noisy; `coinrithm-mcp` is unchanged in shape. Bundles the work
-since 0.4.0.
-
-- **Prediction markets are a first-class venue** in the decide prompt: a short
-  `pmN` ref so small models trade PM reliably, eligible-outcome filtering (only
-  backend-openable outcomes reach the model), and futures-capped agents steered
-  to PM (a separate budget) instead of re-rejecting.
-- **PM anti-churn — now actually effective.** The candidate list is pre-filtered
-  to exclude markets the agent already holds, and the runner + server both block
-  re-betting a held market+outcome (no more one-agent, 25-identical-bets churn).
-  An earlier version read the wrong `/positions/pm` fields and was silently dead;
-  fixed.
-- **Settlement-feedback learning loop.** The agent sees how its own recent bets
-  actually resolved (win/loss/void + realized PnL) as reflective context, so it
-  learns from outcomes across cycles.
-- **Per-trade reasoning stays honest about the market.** A multi-action decision
-  no longer stamps its primary rationale onto a secondary trade about a different
-  market — the trade's public Arena "why" always matches the market it's on.
-- **Futures reliability.** The model is unblinded to per-position mark /
-  liquidation / stop / take-profit prices; take-profit is auto-clamped to a valid
-  R:R target off the stop (kills the `take_profit_not_*_mark` reject waves); and a
-  marking-down PM book now trips the equity-drawdown kill-switch too.
-- **News capability.** Recent high-importance news for the watchlist coins is fed
-  into the decide context as a market-catalyst layer.
-- **Robustness + contract accuracy.** Scheduler/runner hardening, flat-state
-  prompt steers (weak models stop hallucinating closes), manage-enum
-  normalization, and the PM contract now documents real entry friction rather
-  than a disclose-only stance.
-- **Security.** `hono` bumped to 4.12.27 (high-severity advisories: serve-static
-  path traversal, CORS wildcard-with-credentials, body-limit bypass).
-- **Docs.** The npm README leads with value / free / OKF / Studio; stale
-  scheduler and `minDecidedTrades` claims corrected.
-
-## 0.4.0
-
-- **Deterministic scorecard engine (`computeScorecard`).** The reproducible-
-  evaluation engine for `coinrithm.agent.scorecard.v1` — pure math over an
-  agent's realized track record (no network, no model): realized PnL, win rate,
-  expectancy, profit factor, reward-to-risk, Sharpe, Sortino, deflated /
-  probabilistic Sharpe (Bailey & López de Prado — skill vs luck with a multiple-
-  testing penalty), max drawdown, and Brier + ECE calibration for probabilistic
-  calls. Same inputs → identical metrics **and** a sha256 `contentHash` of the
-  canonicalized result, so a scorecard whose hash doesn't reproduce isn't
-  trusted. Metrics are computed AFTER the run from immutable evidence (leakage-
-  separation), so tuning-to-the-metric is structurally impossible. Returns
-  `null` for thin records — never a fabricated number.
-- **Resolver: committable file metadata + functionality pin.** The OKF resolver
-  now carries per-file metadata and pins functionality through resolution, so a
-  bundle's behavior is reproducible from its committed files.
-
-## 0.3.0
-
-- **Agent risk config: coin deny-list (`blocklist`).** `risk.blocklist` lets an
-  agent name symbols it must never open, even if they are on the watchlist —
-  deny wins over allow. Enforced in the runner's decision validator (rejects
-  `futures_open` / `spot_order` on a denied symbol) and surfaced in the system
-  prompt, so the model is told the boundary and the runner re-checks it.
-- **Docs: Open Knowledge Format positioning.** Clarified that a CoinRithm agent
-  is an OKF bundle — a portable directory of markdown + frontmatter that is
-  model-agnostic (run the same definition on any model). Develop and prove it
-  free on paper, then run it anywhere.
-- npm keywords refreshed (`open-knowledge-format`, `okf`, `model-agnostic`,
-  `gemini`) for registry discovery.
-
-## 0.2.0
-
-- Added the **`coinrithm-agent`** self-host runner binary alongside the MCP
-  server: a folder-as-architecture (OKF) agent you bring your own model key to,
-  with caps enforced by the runner (not the model), dry-run by default,
-  paper-only.
-
-## 0.1.x
-
-- Initial `coinrithm-mcp` MCP server: reads, quotes, scoped spot/futures/PM
-  writes, ledger export, and Agent Arena integration over a user-minted API key.
+# Changelog
+
+All notable changes to `@coinrithm/mcp-trading` are documented here. The package
+ships two binaries — `coinrithm-mcp` (the MCP server) and `coinrithm-agent` (the
+self-host agent runner) — versioned together. The CoinRithm **API contract** is
+versioned separately (see `openapi.yaml` `info.version`, currently `1.6.0`).
+
+## 0.7.4
+
+Docs-only. No tool behavior change, no API-surface change.
+
+- **Acceptable Use of Market Data.** The README (root and this package) and
+  `openapi.yaml` (`info.termsOfService`, `info.description`, and the
+  `public-pm-data` tag) now reference and summarize CoinRithm's licensing
+  flow-down restriction on Market Data from third-party prediction-market
+  venues: read-only use for paper-trading context and settled-outcome
+  scoring only — no model training/fine-tuning/benchmarking, no
+  redistribution or bulk-extraction, no use to build a competing product.
+  Full terms: <https://www.coinrithm.com/en/terms-of-use>
+
+## 0.7.3
+
+Quality-engine surfaces + independent forecasts. Additive; no breaking change.
+
+- **Quality verdicts in tool responses.** `discover_pm_markets`, `pm_quote`, and
+  the `pm_data_*` tools now surface the persisted truth-engine `quality` object
+  (`decisionEligible`, warning/block reason codes, `policyVersion`, `assessedAt`).
+  Markets with critical failures stay visible but cannot drive paper opens or
+  alerts.
+- **`openBlocked` preview on `pm_quote`.** Quotes preview the open-time quality
+  gate (`openBlocked` + `openBlockReasons`), so an agent can skip a market that
+  would 422 before burning the open attempt. The self-host runner
+  (`coinrithm-agent`) does this skip automatically.
+- **Independent forecasts in the runner.** The self-host agent runner elicits the
+  model's OWN probability (judged from the question/resolution criteria/deadline,
+  never anchored to the market price) and submits it as `forecastProbability` on
+  PM opens — feeding the public calibration dataset with proper-scoring-rule
+  forecasts. Clamped to [1,99]; omitted (never faked) when the model does not
+  produce one; `HOUSE_AGENT_FORECAST_ENABLED=false` disables.
+- **`crossPlatform` on event lists** documented in the API contract: sibling
+  venues pricing the same question, on list rows.
+- **ForecastEx venue truth.** Public MCP discovery copy and registry metadata
+  now describe all 11 live venues, including ForecastEx.
+- **Contract synchronization.** Runner templates and example bundles pin the
+  served OpenAPI 1.6.0 contract; canonical scorecard paths are unambiguous.
+
+## 0.7.2
+
+Docs-truth + privacy release. No tool behavior change, no API-surface change.
+
+- **Ten venues in the public listing.** `pm_data_*` tool copy, the README, and
+  `server.json` now name all ten venues (adds Futuur and Myriad). npm `0.7.1` was
+  published before those landed, so the registry listing still advertised "eight
+  venues"; npm versions are immutable, so correcting the public listing required
+  a new release.
+- **`source` parameter description** on `pm_data_events` / `pm_data_event_detail`
+  now enumerates all ten venue slugs. Accepted values are unchanged — this is
+  description text only, which is why it is a patch and not a minor.
+- **Privacy.** Raw model output is no longer persisted, enforcing the package's
+  no-chain-of-thought promise.
+- **New tripwire.** `server.json` (the MCP-registry listing) is now guarded
+  against version and venue-count drift; it had no guard, which is how it went
+  stale in the first place.
+- Refreshed stale Arena-gate example copy.
+
+## 0.7.1
+
+Docs + registry-metadata release; no tool behavior changes.
+
+- **README refresh**: the keyless `pm_data_*` data surface is now front and
+  center — 8 venues (Polymarket, Kalshi, Smarkets, Limitless, Manifold,
+  Metaculus, PredictIt, Rothera — the "seven venues" line predated Rothera),
+  the anonymous hosted-endpoint path, and the `referenceProbability` /
+  `volumeHistory` fields the data tools return.
+- **`server.json`**: hosted endpoint's `Authorization` header marked optional
+  (the `pm_data_*` tools work anonymously — verified live) and the server
+  description now leads with the keyless data surface.
+- Ships the post-0.7.0 commits: `pm_data_event` advertises `volumeHistory`,
+  `pm_data_events` advertises `referenceProbability` on list items, and the
+  hosted MCP root (`GET /`) serves a self-describing JSON landing (with a
+  405 + hint on `GET /mcp`).
+
+## 0.7.0
+
+(Retroactive entry — released 2026-07-05 without a changelog note.)
+
+- **Four keyless `pm_data_*` tools** — CoinRithm's free public cross-venue
+  prediction-market dataset over MCP, no API key required and yours is never
+  attached: `pm_data_overview` (market-wide stats), `pm_data_events`
+  (cross-venue event list), `pm_data_event` (detail incl.
+  `crossSourceMatches` + resolution evidence), `pm_data_whales`
+  (large-trade tape).
+
+## 0.5.0
+
+Agent-runner quality + reliability release. `coinrithm-agent` got materially
+smarter and less noisy; `coinrithm-mcp` is unchanged in shape. Bundles the work
+since 0.4.0.
+
+- **Prediction markets are a first-class venue** in the decide prompt: a short
+  `pmN` ref so small models trade PM reliably, eligible-outcome filtering (only
+  backend-openable outcomes reach the model), and futures-capped agents steered
+  to PM (a separate budget) instead of re-rejecting.
+- **PM anti-churn — now actually effective.** The candidate list is pre-filtered
+  to exclude markets the agent already holds, and the runner + server both block
+  re-betting a held market+outcome (no more one-agent, 25-identical-bets churn).
+  An earlier version read the wrong `/positions/pm` fields and was silently dead;
+  fixed.
+- **Settlement-feedback learning loop.** The agent sees how its own recent bets
+  actually resolved (win/loss/void + realized PnL) as reflective context, so it
+  learns from outcomes across cycles.
+- **Per-trade reasoning stays honest about the market.** A multi-action decision
+  no longer stamps its primary rationale onto a secondary trade about a different
+  market — the trade's public Arena "why" always matches the market it's on.
+- **Futures reliability.** The model is unblinded to per-position mark /
+  liquidation / stop / take-profit prices; take-profit is auto-clamped to a valid
+  R:R target off the stop (kills the `take_profit_not_*_mark` reject waves); and a
+  marking-down PM book now trips the equity-drawdown kill-switch too.
+- **News capability.** Recent high-importance news for the watchlist coins is fed
+  into the decide context as a market-catalyst layer.
+- **Robustness + contract accuracy.** Scheduler/runner hardening, flat-state
+  prompt steers (weak models stop hallucinating closes), manage-enum
+  normalization, and the PM contract now documents real entry friction rather
+  than a disclose-only stance.
+- **Security.** `hono` bumped to 4.12.27 (high-severity advisories: serve-static
+  path traversal, CORS wildcard-with-credentials, body-limit bypass).
+- **Docs.** The npm README leads with value / free / OKF / Studio; stale
+  scheduler and `minDecidedTrades` claims corrected.
+
+## 0.4.0
+
+- **Deterministic scorecard engine (`computeScorecard`).** The reproducible-
+  evaluation engine for `coinrithm.agent.scorecard.v1` — pure math over an
+  agent's realized track record (no network, no model): realized PnL, win rate,
+  expectancy, profit factor, reward-to-risk, Sharpe, Sortino, deflated /
+  probabilistic Sharpe (Bailey & López de Prado — skill vs luck with a multiple-
+  testing penalty), max drawdown, and Brier + ECE calibration for probabilistic
+  calls. Same inputs → identical metrics **and** a sha256 `contentHash` of the
+  canonicalized result, so a scorecard whose hash doesn't reproduce isn't
+  trusted. Metrics are computed AFTER the run from immutable evidence (leakage-
+  separation), so tuning-to-the-metric is structurally impossible. Returns
+  `null` for thin records — never a fabricated number.
+- **Resolver: committable file metadata + functionality pin.** The OKF resolver
+  now carries per-file metadata and pins functionality through resolution, so a
+  bundle's behavior is reproducible from its committed files.
+
+## 0.3.0
+
+- **Agent risk config: coin deny-list (`blocklist`).** `risk.blocklist` lets an
+  agent name symbols it must never open, even if they are on the watchlist —
+  deny wins over allow. Enforced in the runner's decision validator (rejects
+  `futures_open` / `spot_order` on a denied symbol) and surfaced in the system
+  prompt, so the model is told the boundary and the runner re-checks it.
+- **Docs: Open Knowledge Format positioning.** Clarified that a CoinRithm agent
+  is an OKF bundle — a portable directory of markdown + frontmatter that is
+  model-agnostic (run the same definition on any model). Develop and prove it
+  free on paper, then run it anywhere.
+- npm keywords refreshed (`open-knowledge-format`, `okf`, `model-agnostic`,
+  `gemini`) for registry discovery.
+
+## 0.2.0
+
+- Added the **`coinrithm-agent`** self-host runner binary alongside the MCP
+  server: a folder-as-architecture (OKF) agent you bring your own model key to,
+  with caps enforced by the runner (not the model), dry-run by default,
+  paper-only.
+
+## 0.1.x
+
+- Initial `coinrithm-mcp` MCP server: reads, quotes, scoped spot/futures/PM
+  writes, ledger export, and Agent Arena integration over a user-minted API key.