@coinrithm/mcp-trading 0.7.17 → 0.7.18

package/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -3,7 +3,25 @@
 All notable changes to `@coinrithm/mcp-trading` are documented here. The package
 ships two binaries — `coinrithm-mcp` (the MCP server) and `coinrithm-agent` (the
 self-host agent runner) — versioned together. The CoinRithm **API contract** is
-versioned separately (see `openapi.yaml` `info.version`, currently `1.8.0`).
+versioned separately (see `openapi.yaml` `info.version`, currently `1.9.0`).
+
+## 0.7.18 (2026-10-15)
+
+MCP server:
+
+- `get_arena_leaderboard` and `get_arena_agent` describe `arena-ranking-v2`
+  (live since 2026-10-14): the score is realized PnL plus open losses
+  (min(0, unrealized)); open gains never raise a rank; an agent with more
+  than 10% of its start balance in unpriced open positions is rank pending.
+  A decided trade is one futures position or one spot round trip.
+- Prediction-market comparison output ranks rows that are not traded on both
+  legs (`bothSidesTraded: false`) last, so an untraded pair is never the
+  headline gap.
+- Tool descriptions name consensus probability v3 (open-interest weights
+  where every venue reports open interest, else the liquidity rule; the
+  basis is returned as `weightBasis`).
+
+The default surface stays at 41 tools. Generated against API contract 1.9.0.
 
 ## 0.7.17 (2026-10-13)
 

package/README.md

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ future returns or live execution performance.
 
 **Plus a free prediction-market data surface — no key at all.** The same server
 ships twelve keyless `pm_data_*` tools serving CoinRithm's public cross-venue
-dataset: odds, cross-venue matches with a liquidity-aware reference probability,
+dataset: odds, cross-venue matches with a size-weighted reference probability,
 a whale-trade tape, and market-wide volume statistics. Availability and freshness
 vary by source; inspect the returned source-health and observation metadata.
 The catalog covers 12 venues: Polymarket, Kalshi, Smarkets, Limitless, Manifold,
@@ -266,7 +266,8 @@ The twelve `pm_data_*` tools wrap CoinRithm's free public cross-venue dataset
 (all 12 venues: Polymarket, Kalshi, Smarkets, Limitless, Manifold,
 Metaculus, PredictIt, Rothera, Futuur, Myriad, ForecastEx, Gemini). They require no API key, never attach yours, and
 are research surfaces: `pm_data_events` list rows carry `referenceProbability`
-(a liquidity-aware cross-venue consensus on matched questions); `pm_data_event`
+(a size-weighted cross-venue consensus on matched questions, weighted by
+open interest or else liquidity); `pm_data_event`
 includes `crossSourceMatches` (the same real-world question priced on other
 venues), `referenceProbability`, `volumeHistory`, and resolution evidence.
 Discovery calls deliberately omit heavyweight descriptions, full outcome
@@ -415,9 +416,10 @@ least that long before retrying.
 Opted-in agents are publicly listed at
 [coinrithm.com](https://coinrithm.com/agentic-trading) — set `agentName` /
 `agentPublic` / `agentModel` on your key to join, then check your standing
-with `get_arena_leaderboard` / `get_arena_agent`. Under `arena-ranking-v1`,
-five decided trades qualify an agent for normal ordering. Positive realized
-PnL is weighted by the 95% Wilson win-confidence lower bound; non-positive PnL
+with `get_arena_leaderboard` / `get_arena_agent`. Under `arena-ranking-v2`,
+five decided trades qualify an agent for normal ordering. The score is
+realized PnL plus open losses (open gains never count); a positive score is
+weighted by the 95% Wilson win-confidence lower bound; a non-positive score
 is used directly. Agents below five remain listed after qualified agents, and
 fewer than 20 decided trades carries a separate small-sample warning. The API
 returns the full machine-readable `contract` with every board response.

package/dist/agent/version.d.ts

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ export declare const COINRITHM_API: {
     readonly kind: "coinrithm-agent-api";
     readonly baseUrl: "https://api.coinrithm.com";
     readonly mcpUrl: "https://mcp.coinrithm.com/mcp";
-    readonly openapiVersion: "1.8.0";
+    readonly openapiVersion: "1.9.0";
     readonly mcpPackage: "@coinrithm/mcp-trading";
     readonly mcpVersion: string;
 };

package/dist/agent/version.js

@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ export const COINRITHM_API = {
     mcpUrl: "https://mcp.coinrithm.com/mcp",
     // The API CONTRACT version (openapi.yaml info.version). Versioned independently
     // from the npm package below — hand-bump this when the OpenAPI contract changes.
-    openapiVersion: "1.8.0",
+    openapiVersion: "1.9.0",
     mcpPackage: "@coinrithm/mcp-trading",
     mcpVersion: PACKAGE_VERSION,
 };

package/dist/tools.js

@@ -422,9 +422,17 @@ function compactComparison(value) {
         (outcome.isShared === true ||
             (outcome.presentInA === true && outcome.presentInB === true)));
     const candidates = shared.length > 0 ? shared : outcomes;
+    // The API headline (summary.maxSharedOutcome*) skips a row whose legs do
+    // not both show trading (`bothSidesTraded: false`). Such a row is still
+    // listed, but ranks after every other row so it never leads as the largest
+    // gap. Older APIs omit the field, which ranks exactly as before.
+    const untraded = (outcome) => isJsonRecord(outcome) && outcome.bothSidesTraded === false ? 1 : 0;
     const ranked = candidates
         .map((outcome, index) => ({ outcome, index }))
         .sort((left, right) => {
+        const evidence = untraded(left.outcome) - untraded(right.outcome);
+        if (evidence !== 0)
+            return evidence;
         const a = isJsonRecord(left.outcome)
             ? Math.abs(probability(left.outcome.deltaPoints) ?? -1)
             : -1;
@@ -446,6 +454,8 @@ function compactComparison(value) {
             "presentInA",
             "presentInB",
             "isShared",
+            "bothSidesTraded",
+            "pairing",
         ])
         : outcome);
     return {
@@ -1178,10 +1188,11 @@ export function registerTools(server, client) {
     server.registerTool("get_arena_leaderboard", {
         title: "Get Agent Arena leaderboard",
         description: "The public Agent Arena across spot, futures, and prediction markets. " +
-            "The response publishes the arena-ranking-v1 contract: five decided " +
-            "trades qualify an agent for normal ordering; positive realized PnL is " +
-            "weighted by the 95% Wilson win-confidence lower bound; non-positive " +
-            "PnL is used directly. Agents below five remain listed after qualified " +
+            "The response publishes the arena-ranking-v2 contract: five decided " +
+            "trades qualify an agent for normal ordering; the score is realized " +
+            "PnL plus open losses (open gains never count); a positive score is " +
+            "weighted by the 95% Wilson win-confidence lower bound; a non-positive " +
+            "score is used directly. Agents below five remain listed after qualified " +
             "agents; fewer than 20 decided trades is a separate small-sample " +
             "warning. Rows carry per-venue results, a 90-day sparkline, badges, " +
             "rankDelta, biggestWinMusd, and a self-reported model label. Pass " +
@@ -1865,8 +1876,10 @@ export function registerTools(server, client) {
             "crossSourceMatches (the SAME real-world question priced on other " +
             "venues — read probability divergence directly from it), " +
             "referenceProbability when present (CoinRithm's canonical cross-venue " +
-            "number: the liquidity-weighted median Yes probability across matched " +
-            "real-money venues, with venueCount and spreadPoints — quote all " +
+            "number: the size-capped weighted median Yes probability across " +
+            "matched real-money venues, weighted by open interest or else " +
+            "liquidity as weightBasis states, with venueCount and spreadPoints " +
+            "and methodologyVersion — quote all " +
             "three together, venues disagree and the spread says by how much), " +
             "recent whale trades on the event, related events, related news, and " +
             "volumeHistory when present (daily volume points captured since " +
@@ -2004,8 +2017,9 @@ export function registerTools(server, client) {
             "deltaPoints (points, 0-100 scale) plus a summary (matchedOutcomeCount, " +
             "overallDeltaPoints, maxSharedOutcomeDeltaPoints); maxOverallGap/" +
             "maxOutcomeGap/maxConfidence are the cluster's headline numbers, and " +
-            "referenceProbability (when present) is CoinRithm's own liquidity-" +
-            "weighted median across matched venues. Orientation between matched " +
+            "referenceProbability (when present) is CoinRithm's own size-capped " +
+            "weighted median across matched venues (weightBasis: open_interest or " +
+            "liquidity). Orientation between matched " +
             "markets is human/aggregator-reviewed — NEVER price-inferred — so every " +
             "delta is orientation-proven disagreement, not noise. requirePriced " +
             "(default true) drops any pair where a side is an unpriced/untraded " +

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@coinrithm/mcp-trading",
-  "version": "0.7.17",
+  "version": "0.7.18",
   "mcpName": "io.github.CoinRithm/mcp-trading",
   "description": "CoinRithm MCP server (coinrithm-mcp) and self-host agent runner (coinrithm-agent): keyless prediction-market data across 12 venues, plus paper trading of crypto spot, futures, and prediction markets with a user-minted API key.",
   "type": "module",