@coinrithm/mcp-trading 0.7.12 → 0.7.13

package/dist/tools.js

@@ -197,6 +197,8 @@ const EVENT_SUMMARY_FIELDS = [
     "endDate",
     "resolvedAt",
     "resolvedAtBasis",
+    "resolvedOutcomeExternalMarketId",
+    "resolutionOutcomeBasis",
     "settlementWindowClosedAt",
     "freshness",
     "volume",
@@ -221,6 +223,9 @@ const OUTCOME_SUMMARY_FIELDS = [
     "probability",
     "normalizedProbability",
     "priceChange24h",
+    "lifecycle",
+    "priorProbability",
+    "venueTerms",
 ];
 const WHALE_TRADE_FIELDS = [
     "source",
@@ -274,6 +279,20 @@ function eventSummary(value) {
         ? value.outcomes
             .map((outcome, index) => ({ outcome, index }))
             .sort((left, right) => {
+            if (value.status === "open") {
+                const leftTerminal = isJsonRecord(left.outcome) && isTerminalOutcome(left.outcome);
+                const rightTerminal = isJsonRecord(right.outcome) && isTerminalOutcome(right.outcome);
+                if (leftTerminal !== rightTerminal)
+                    return leftTerminal ? 1 : -1;
+            }
+            else {
+                const leftWinner = isJsonRecord(left.outcome) &&
+                    isProviderConfirmedWinner(left.outcome, value);
+                const rightWinner = isJsonRecord(right.outcome) &&
+                    isProviderConfirmedWinner(right.outcome, value);
+                if (leftWinner !== rightWinner)
+                    return leftWinner ? -1 : 1;
+            }
             const a = isJsonRecord(left.outcome)
                 ? probability(left.outcome.probability)
                 : null;
@@ -300,6 +319,22 @@ function eventSummary(value) {
         outcomes,
     };
 }
+function isTerminalOutcome(outcome) {
+    const lifecycle = isJsonRecord(outcome.lifecycle) ? outcome.lifecycle : null;
+    return Boolean(lifecycle?.isResult === true ||
+        (typeof lifecycle?.state === "string" &&
+            ["closed", "resolved", "voided"].includes(lifecycle.state)));
+}
+function isProviderConfirmedWinner(outcome, event) {
+    const lifecycle = isJsonRecord(outcome.lifecycle) ? outcome.lifecycle : null;
+    const lifecycleWinner = lifecycle?.isResult === true &&
+        lifecycle.result === "won" &&
+        lifecycle.basis === "provider";
+    const eventWinner = event.resolutionOutcomeBasis === "provider" &&
+        typeof event.resolvedOutcomeExternalMarketId === "string" &&
+        outcome.externalMarketId === event.resolvedOutcomeExternalMarketId;
+    return lifecycleWinner || eventWinner;
+}
 /**
  * Keep keyless discovery calls small enough for an agent context window.
  * Full event evidence remains available from pm_data_event.
@@ -507,6 +542,73 @@ export function compactPublicPmWhales(data, limit) {
         : data.trades;
     return { ...data, trades };
 }
+const WHALE_WALLET_FIELDS = [
+    "wallet",
+    "address",
+    "traderName",
+    "venues",
+    "tradeCount",
+    "totalUsd",
+    "maxUsd",
+    "firstSeen",
+    "lastSeen",
+];
+export function compactPublicPmWhaleWallets(data, limit, requestedSource) {
+    if (!isJsonRecord(data))
+        return data;
+    if (requestedSource &&
+        (!Array.isArray(data.venues) ||
+            data.venues.length !== 1 ||
+            data.venues[0] !== requestedSource)) {
+        return {
+            unavailable: "filtered_wallet_scope_unconfirmed",
+            requestedSource,
+        };
+    }
+    const wallets = Array.isArray(data.wallets)
+        ? data.wallets
+            .slice(0, limit)
+            .map((wallet) => isJsonRecord(wallet) ? pick(wallet, WHALE_WALLET_FIELDS) : wallet)
+        : data.wallets;
+    return { ...data, wallets };
+}
+const WHALE_WALLET_FILL_FIELDS = [
+    "side",
+    "outcome",
+    "marketQuestion",
+    "usdValue",
+    "price",
+    "evidenceType",
+    "evidenceUrl",
+    "availability",
+    "tradedAt",
+    "event",
+];
+export function compactPublicPmWhaleWalletDetail(data) {
+    if (!isJsonRecord(data))
+        return data;
+    const compactEvent = (value) => isJsonRecord(value)
+        ? pick(value, ["source", "slug", "title", "status"])
+        : value;
+    const compactFill = (value) => {
+        if (!isJsonRecord(value))
+            return value;
+        const fill = pick(value, WHALE_WALLET_FILL_FIELDS);
+        if (isJsonRecord(fill) && "event" in fill) {
+            return { ...fill, event: compactEvent(fill.event) };
+        }
+        return fill;
+    };
+    return {
+        ...data,
+        topEvents30d: Array.isArray(data.topEvents30d)
+            ? data.topEvents30d.slice(0, 20)
+            : data.topEvents30d,
+        recentFills: Array.isArray(data.recentFills)
+            ? data.recentFills.slice(0, 20).map(compactFill)
+            : data.recentFills,
+    };
+}
 // Crypto movers rows arrive as {ucid, symbol, name, slug, change24h,
 // currentPrice} with the numerics as STRINGS (backend SQL fn passthrough).
 // Coerce so a brain never string-compares "9.5" > "12"; drop the internal
@@ -1094,16 +1196,31 @@ export function registerTools(server, client) {
                 "resolves false; fills at 100 minus the outcome probability. " +
                 "Omitted = yes."),
             stakeMusd: z.number().positive().describe("mUSD to stake (> 0)."),
+            forecastProbability: z
+                .number()
+                .finite()
+                .gt(0)
+                .lt(100)
+                .optional()
+                .describe("Optional own probability that the selected side wins (0-100 exclusive) for advisory edge sizing."),
+            bankrollMusd: z
+                .number()
+                .finite()
+                .positive()
+                .optional()
+                .describe("Optional bankroll in mUSD for the advisory suggested stake."),
             agentTrace: AGENT_TRACE_SCHEMA,
         },
         outputSchema: API_RESULT_OUTPUT_SCHEMA,
         annotations: readOnlyAnnotations("Prediction-market quote"),
-    }, async ({ source, slug, outcomeExternalMarketId, side, stakeMusd, agentTrace }, extra) => present(await client.pmQuote({
+    }, async ({ source, slug, outcomeExternalMarketId, side, stakeMusd, forecastProbability, bankrollMusd, agentTrace, }, extra) => present(await client.pmQuote({
         source,
         slug,
         outcomeExternalMarketId,
         side,
         stakeMusd,
+        forecastProbability,
+        bankrollMusd,
         agentTrace,
     }, requestKey(extra))));
     server.registerTool("spot_quote", {
@@ -1367,6 +1484,11 @@ export function registerTools(server, client) {
                 "PUBLIC calibration record (agentBrier), which scores your forecast " +
                 "SKILL — not the market's. Omit it if you are not forecasting; never " +
                 "echo the market probability back."),
+            thesis: z
+                .string()
+                .max(280)
+                .optional()
+                .describe("Optional one-line thesis for this decision (max 280 characters)."),
             provenance: PROVENANCE_REPORT_SCHEMA,
             agentTrace: AGENT_TRACE_SCHEMA,
         },
@@ -1374,7 +1496,7 @@ export function registerTools(server, client) {
         annotations: mutatingAnnotations("Open prediction-market position", {
             idempotent: true,
         }),
-    }, async ({ source, slug, outcomeExternalMarketId, side, stakeMusd, idempotencyKey, forecastProbability, provenance, agentTrace, }, extra) => present(await client.openPmPosition({
+    }, async ({ source, slug, outcomeExternalMarketId, side, stakeMusd, idempotencyKey, forecastProbability, thesis, provenance, agentTrace, }, extra) => present(await client.openPmPosition({
         source,
         slug,
         outcomeExternalMarketId,
@@ -1382,6 +1504,7 @@ export function registerTools(server, client) {
         stakeMusd,
         idempotencyKey,
         forecastProbability,
+        thesis,
         provenance,
         agentTrace,
     }, requestKey(extra))));
@@ -1539,7 +1662,8 @@ export function registerTools(server, client) {
             "Manifold, Metaculus, PredictIt, Futuur, Myriad, ForecastEx, Gemini) — broader than discover_pm_markets, which is " +
             "scoped to the paper-tradeable venues. Returns titles, probabilities, " +
             "volume/liquidity, status, and source per event, plus " +
-            "the five highest-probability outcomes and the full outcome count. " +
+            "up to five outcomes, with current outcomes ahead of terminal result " +
+            "rows when an event still has live quotes, plus the full outcome count. " +
             "Use pm_data_event for all outcomes and full evidence. Also returns " +
             "referenceProbability when present (CoinRithm's canonical cross-venue " +
             "number for open events matched across venues — probability, " +
@@ -1627,6 +1751,20 @@ export function registerTools(server, client) {
         annotations: readOnlyAnnotations("Get prediction-market event detail"),
     }, async ({ source, slug, fiat, detail }) => {
         const result = await client.getPublicPmEvent(source, slug, { fiat });
+        const body = result.data;
+        const event = body && typeof body === "object" && !Array.isArray(body)
+            ? body.event
+            : null;
+        const status = event && typeof event === "object" && !Array.isArray(event)
+            ? event.status
+            : body && typeof body === "object" && !Array.isArray(body)
+                ? body.status
+                : null;
+        if (result.ok && status === "open") {
+            void client
+                .markPublicPmEventViewed(source, slug)
+                .catch(() => undefined);
+        }
         return present(detail === "full"
             ? result
             : mapSuccessfulBody(result, compactPublicPmEvent));
@@ -1651,6 +1789,59 @@ export function registerTools(server, client) {
         outputSchema: API_RESULT_OUTPUT_SCHEMA,
         annotations: readOnlyAnnotations("Get latest prediction-market whale trades"),
     }, async ({ limit }) => present(mapSuccessfulBody(await client.getPublicPmWhales(), (data) => compactPublicPmWhales(data, limit ?? 10))));
+    server.registerTool("pm_data_whale_wallets", {
+        title: "Explore prediction-market whale wallets",
+        description: "Free public 7-day (default) or 30-day aggregation of identifiable " +
+            "large-trader " +
+            "wallet activity for the on-chain venues that expose wallet addresses. " +
+            "Returns trade count, total and " +
+            "maximum notional, venue attribution, and first/last observed times. " +
+            "An absent wallet does not prove absent trading: anonymized venues and " +
+            "unavailable feeds are excluded. This is market context, not a wallet " +
+            "identity guarantee or recommendation. No API key required.",
+        inputSchema: {
+            limit: z
+                .number()
+                .int()
+                .min(1)
+                .max(50)
+                .optional()
+                .describe("Max wallets (1-50, default 10)."),
+            window: z
+                .enum(["7d", "30d"])
+                .optional()
+                .describe("Observed aggregation window (default 7d)."),
+            source: z
+                .enum(["polymarket", "limitless", "myriad"])
+                .optional()
+                .describe("Restrict results to one wallet-address venue."),
+        },
+        outputSchema: API_RESULT_OUTPUT_SCHEMA,
+        annotations: readOnlyAnnotations("Explore prediction-market whale wallets"),
+    }, async ({ limit, window, source }) => present(mapSuccessfulBody(await client.getPublicPmWhaleWallets(window, source), (data) => compactPublicPmWhaleWallets(data, limit ?? 10, source))));
+    server.registerTool("pm_data_whale_wallet", {
+        title: "Inspect one prediction-market whale wallet",
+        description: "Free public wallet movement detail for one supported on-chain " +
+            "prediction-market venue and address. Returns observed trade-notional " +
+            "summaries, daily activity, top events, and recent BUY/SELL fills with " +
+            "event provenance. CoinRithm flow fields are matched-trade observations; " +
+            "optional provider-reported positions/PnL context is separate and may " +
+            "carry its own availability and as-of markers. Absence of a row is not " +
+            "proof of inactivity. No API " +
+            "key required.",
+        inputSchema: {
+            source: z
+                .enum(["polymarket", "limitless", "myriad"])
+                .describe("Supported wallet-address venue."),
+            wallet: z
+                .string()
+                .trim()
+                .regex(/^0x[0-9a-fA-F]{40}$/, "expected a 20-byte EVM wallet address")
+                .describe("Wallet address returned by pm_data_whale_wallets."),
+        },
+        outputSchema: API_RESULT_OUTPUT_SCHEMA,
+        annotations: readOnlyAnnotations("Inspect one prediction-market whale wallet"),
+    }, async ({ source, wallet }) => present(mapSuccessfulBody(await client.getPublicPmWhaleWallet(source, wallet), compactPublicPmWhaleWalletDetail)));
     server.registerTool("pm_data_disagreements", {
         title: "Cross-venue disagreement clusters",
         description: "Free public cross-venue disagreement clusters: prediction-market " +
@@ -1743,22 +1934,22 @@ export function registerTools(server, client) {
         fiat,
     }), compactPublicPmDisagreements)));
     server.registerTool("pm_data_calibration", {
-        title: "Per-venue forecast-accuracy calibration",
-        description: "Free public per-venue forecast-accuracy scorecard: for each venue, " +
-            "calibrationError (Expected Calibration Error, 0-1, lower is better — " +
-            "the fair cross-venue headline), sampleSize, meanWinnerConfidence, and " +
-            "a 10-bucket reliability curve (predictedMean vs realizedRate per " +
-            "probability bucket) computed from that venue's OWN probability ~24h " +
-            "before resolution against the outcome that actually happened, over " +
-            "resolved markets with >=24h of pre-resolution history. Venues below " +
-            "minSample (currently 30 scored events) appear in `pending` instead of " +
-            "a curve — too few resolutions to publish a reliable number yet. Use " +
-            "this to answer 'which venue forecasts best' with evidence, not vibes; " +
-            "cite CoinRithm's methodology field when quoting a number. No API key " +
-            "required.",
+        title: "Per-venue market-price calibration",
+        description: "Free public per-venue market-price calibration scorecard. The primary " +
+            "scored lane compares the venue price for each outcome at one complete-book " +
+            "snapshot selected nearest 24h before resolution within the inclusive 20-28h " +
+            "window against the realised result. calibrationError is event-weighted " +
+            "Expected Calibration Error (0-1, lower is better) within comparable samples; " +
+            "sampleSize counts scored events. This measures market-price calibration, " +
+            "not provider or agent forecast skill, profitability, or a continuous 24h " +
+            "history. Venues below minSample (currently 30 scored events) appear in " +
+            "`pending`. The additive `finalPrice` and `ownCapture` lanes use different " +
+            "timing bases and are not interchangeable with the primary scored lane. " +
+            "Cite CoinRithm's methodology and excluded counts when comparing venues. " +
+            "No API key required.",
         inputSchema: {},
         outputSchema: API_RESULT_OUTPUT_SCHEMA,
-        annotations: readOnlyAnnotations("Per-venue forecast-accuracy calibration"),
+        annotations: readOnlyAnnotations("Per-venue market-price calibration"),
     }, async () => present(await client.getPublicPmCalibration()));
     server.registerTool("pm_data_canonical", {
         title: "Canonical cross-venue event identity",

package/package.json

@@ -1,97 +1,97 @@
-{
-  "name": "@coinrithm/mcp-trading",
-  "version": "0.7.12",
-  "mcpName": "io.github.CoinRithm/mcp-trading",
-  "description": "CoinRithm paper-trading toolkit: an MCP server (coinrithm-mcp) AND a self-host agent runner (coinrithm-agent) for spot, futures, and prediction markets with a user-minted API key.",
-  "type": "module",
-  "author": "CoinRithm",
-  "homepage": "https://coinrithm.com/agentic-trading",
-  "repository": {
-    "type": "git",
-    "url": "git+https://github.com/CoinRithm/coinrithm-agent-trading.git",
-    "directory": "packages/mcp-trading"
-  },
-  "bugs": {
-    "url": "https://github.com/CoinRithm/coinrithm-agent-trading/issues"
-  },
-  "publishConfig": {
-    "access": "public"
-  },
-  "bin": {
-    "coinrithm-mcp": "dist/index.js",
-    "coinrithm-agent": "dist/agent/index.js"
-  },
-  "main": "dist/index.js",
-  "files": [
-    "dist",
-    "README.md",
-    "CHANGELOG.md"
-  ],
-  "scripts": {
-    "build": "tsc -p tsconfig.json",
-    "typecheck": "tsc -p tsconfig.json --noEmit",
-    "test": "vitest run",
-    "test:coverage": "vitest run --coverage",
-    "lint": "eslint src",
-    "lint:fix": "eslint src --fix",
-    "format": "prettier --write \"src/**/*.ts\"",
-    "format:check": "prettier --check \"src/**/*.ts\"",
-    "start": "node dist/index.js",
-    "start:http": "node dist/http.js",
-    "smoke:agent": "npm run build && node scripts/agent-smoke.mjs",
-    "prepare": "npm run build"
-  },
-  "engines": {
-    "node": ">=18"
-  },
-  "keywords": [
-    "mcp",
-    "mcp-server",
-    "model-context-protocol",
-    "ai-agent",
-    "agent-trading",
-    "trading",
-    "paper-trading",
-    "crypto",
-    "futures",
-    "prediction-markets",
-    "polymarket",
-    "kalshi",
-    "claude",
-    "chatgpt",
-    "gemini",
-    "cursor",
-    "open-knowledge-format",
-    "okf",
-    "model-agnostic",
-    "leaderboard",
-    "coinrithm"
-  ],
-  "license": "MIT",
-  "dependencies": {
-    "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk": "^1.0.0",
-    "express": "^4.21.0",
-    "yaml": "^2.5.0",
-    "zod": "^3.23.8"
-  },
-  "devDependencies": {
-    "@eslint/js": "^9.13.0",
-    "@types/express": "^4.17.21",
-    "@types/node": "^20.14.0",
-    "@vitest/coverage-v8": "4.1.11",
-    "eslint": "^9.13.0",
-    "prettier": "^3.3.3",
-    "typescript": "^5.5.0",
-    "typescript-eslint": "^8.11.0",
-    "vitest": "4.1.11"
-  },
-  "exports": {
-    ".": "./dist/index.js",
-    "./engine": {
-      "types": "./dist/agent/engine.d.ts",
-      "import": "./dist/agent/engine.js"
-    },
-    "./package.json": "./package.json",
-    "./dist/*": "./dist/*"
-  }
-}
+{
+  "name": "@coinrithm/mcp-trading",
+  "version": "0.7.13",
+  "mcpName": "io.github.CoinRithm/mcp-trading",
+  "description": "CoinRithm paper-trading toolkit: an MCP server (coinrithm-mcp) AND a self-host agent runner (coinrithm-agent) for spot, futures, and prediction markets with a user-minted API key.",
+  "type": "module",
+  "author": "CoinRithm",
+  "homepage": "https://coinrithm.com/agentic-trading",
+  "repository": {
+    "type": "git",
+    "url": "git+https://github.com/CoinRithm/coinrithm-agent-trading.git",
+    "directory": "packages/mcp-trading"
+  },
+  "bugs": {
+    "url": "https://github.com/CoinRithm/coinrithm-agent-trading/issues"
+  },
+  "publishConfig": {
+    "access": "public"
+  },
+  "bin": {
+    "coinrithm-mcp": "dist/index.js",
+    "coinrithm-agent": "dist/agent/index.js"
+  },
+  "main": "dist/index.js",
+  "files": [
+    "dist",
+    "README.md",
+    "CHANGELOG.md"
+  ],
+  "scripts": {
+    "build": "tsc -p tsconfig.json",
+    "typecheck": "tsc -p tsconfig.json --noEmit",
+    "test": "vitest run",
+    "test:coverage": "vitest run --coverage",
+    "lint": "eslint src",
+    "lint:fix": "eslint src --fix",
+    "format": "prettier --write \"src/**/*.ts\"",
+    "format:check": "prettier --check \"src/**/*.ts\"",
+    "start": "node dist/index.js",
+    "start:http": "node dist/http.js",
+    "smoke:agent": "npm run build && node scripts/agent-smoke.mjs",
+    "prepare": "npm run build"
+  },
+  "engines": {
+    "node": ">=18"
+  },
+  "keywords": [
+    "mcp",
+    "mcp-server",
+    "model-context-protocol",
+    "ai-agent",
+    "agent-trading",
+    "trading",
+    "paper-trading",
+    "crypto",
+    "futures",
+    "prediction-markets",
+    "polymarket",
+    "kalshi",
+    "claude",
+    "chatgpt",
+    "gemini",
+    "cursor",
+    "open-knowledge-format",
+    "okf",
+    "model-agnostic",
+    "leaderboard",
+    "coinrithm"
+  ],
+  "license": "MIT",
+  "dependencies": {
+    "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk": "^1.0.0",
+    "express": "^4.21.0",
+    "yaml": "^2.5.0",
+    "zod": "^3.23.8"
+  },
+  "devDependencies": {
+    "@eslint/js": "^9.13.0",
+    "@types/express": "^4.17.21",
+    "@types/node": "^20.14.0",
+    "@vitest/coverage-v8": "4.1.11",
+    "eslint": "^9.13.0",
+    "prettier": "^3.3.3",
+    "typescript": "^5.5.0",
+    "typescript-eslint": "^8.11.0",
+    "vitest": "4.1.11"
+  },
+  "exports": {
+    ".": "./dist/index.js",
+    "./engine": {
+      "types": "./dist/agent/engine.d.ts",
+      "import": "./dist/agent/engine.js"
+    },
+    "./package.json": "./package.json",
+    "./dist/*": "./dist/*"
+  }
+}