@cleocode/core 2026.3.43 → 2026.3.44

package/src/intelligence/prediction.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,621 @@
+/**
+ * Quality Prediction module for the CLEO Intelligence dimension.
+ *
+ * Provides risk scoring for tasks based on complexity, historical patterns,
+ * and blocking analysis. Also predicts lifecycle gate validation outcomes
+ * using brain_patterns and brain_learnings data.
+ *
+ * Uses the existing BrainDataAccessor and DataAccessor — no new tables.
+ *
+ * @task Wave3A
+ * @epic T5149
+ */
+
+import type { Task } from '@cleocode/contracts';
+import type { BrainDataAccessor } from '../store/brain-accessor.js';
+import type { DataAccessor } from '../store/data-accessor.js';
+import type { LearningContext, RiskAssessment, RiskFactor, ValidationPrediction } from './types.js';
+
+// ============================================================================
+// Constants
+// ============================================================================
+
+/** Risk factor weights — tuned to prioritize blocking risk and complexity. */
+const RISK_WEIGHTS = {
+  complexity: 0.25,
+  historicalFailure: 0.25,
+  blockingRisk: 0.3,
+  dependencyDepth: 0.2,
+} as const;
+
+/** Thresholds for risk level recommendations. */
+const RISK_THRESHOLDS = {
+  low: 0.3,
+  medium: 0.6,
+  high: 0.8,
+} as const;
+
+/** Size-to-complexity mapping (0-1 scale). */
+const SIZE_COMPLEXITY: Record<string, number> = {
+  small: 0.2,
+  medium: 0.5,
+  large: 0.8,
+};
+
+// ============================================================================
+// Risk Scoring
+// ============================================================================
+
+/**
+ * Calculate the risk score for a task based on multiple contributing factors.
+ *
+ * Factors considered:
+ * - Task complexity (size, dependency count, hierarchy depth)
+ * - Historical patterns (similar tasks' failure rates from brain_patterns)
+ * - Blocking risk (does this task block others?)
+ * - Dependency depth (how deep in the dependency chain)
+ *
+ * @param taskId - The task to assess
+ * @param taskAccessor - DataAccessor for tasks.db
+ * @param brainAccessor - BrainDataAccessor for brain.db
+ * @returns A complete risk assessment with score, confidence, factors, and recommendation
+ */
+export async function calculateTaskRisk(
+  taskId: string,
+  taskAccessor: DataAccessor,
+  brainAccessor: BrainDataAccessor,
+): Promise<RiskAssessment> {
+  const task = await taskAccessor.loadSingleTask(taskId);
+  if (!task) {
+    return {
+      taskId,
+      riskScore: 0,
+      confidence: 0,
+      factors: [],
+      recommendation: `Task ${taskId} not found — cannot assess risk.`,
+    };
+  }
+
+  const factors: RiskFactor[] = [];
+  let dataPoints = 0;
+
+  // Factor 1: Complexity (size + dependency count + child count)
+  const complexityFactor = await computeComplexityFactor(task, taskAccessor);
+  factors.push(complexityFactor);
+  dataPoints += 1;
+
+  // Factor 2: Historical failure patterns from brain_patterns
+  const historicalFactor = await computeHistoricalFailureFactor(task, brainAccessor);
+  factors.push(historicalFactor);
+  if (historicalFactor.value > 0) dataPoints += 1;
+
+  // Factor 3: Blocking risk (how many tasks does this block?)
+  const blockingFactor = await computeBlockingFactor(task, taskAccessor);
+  factors.push(blockingFactor);
+  dataPoints += 1;
+
+  // Factor 4: Dependency depth
+  const depthFactor = await computeDependencyDepthFactor(task, taskAccessor);
+  factors.push(depthFactor);
+  dataPoints += 1;
+
+  // Compute weighted aggregate score
+  const riskScore = computeWeightedScore(factors);
+
+  // Confidence scales with available data (0.25 base, up to 1.0)
+  const confidence = Math.min(1.0, 0.25 + (dataPoints / 4) * 0.75);
+
+  const recommendation = generateRecommendation(riskScore, factors);
+
+  return {
+    taskId,
+    riskScore: Math.round(riskScore * 1000) / 1000,
+    confidence: Math.round(confidence * 1000) / 1000,
+    factors,
+    recommendation,
+  };
+}
+
+// ============================================================================
+// Validation Outcome Prediction
+// ============================================================================
+
+/**
+ * Predict the likelihood of a task passing a lifecycle validation gate.
+ *
+ * Combines:
+ * - Historical gate results for similar tasks (from brain_patterns)
+ * - Current task completion state
+ * - Applicable learnings from brain_learnings
+ *
+ * @param taskId - The task to evaluate
+ * @param stage - The lifecycle stage (e.g., "specification", "implementation")
+ * @param taskAccessor - DataAccessor for tasks.db
+ * @param brainAccessor - BrainDataAccessor for brain.db
+ * @returns Prediction with pass likelihood, blockers, and suggestions
+ */
+export async function predictValidationOutcome(
+  taskId: string,
+  stage: string,
+  taskAccessor: DataAccessor,
+  brainAccessor: BrainDataAccessor,
+): Promise<ValidationPrediction> {
+  const task = await taskAccessor.loadSingleTask(taskId);
+  if (!task) {
+    return {
+      taskId,
+      stage,
+      passLikelihood: 0,
+      blockers: [`Task ${taskId} not found`],
+      suggestions: [],
+    };
+  }
+
+  const blockers: string[] = [];
+  const suggestions: string[] = [];
+  let passSignals = 0;
+  let failSignals = 0;
+  let totalSignals = 0;
+
+  // Signal 1: Task status assessment
+  const statusResult = assessTaskStatus(task, stage);
+  passSignals += statusResult.pass;
+  failSignals += statusResult.fail;
+  totalSignals += statusResult.total;
+  blockers.push(...statusResult.blockers);
+  suggestions.push(...statusResult.suggestions);
+
+  // Signal 2: Acceptance criteria completeness
+  const criteriaResult = assessAcceptanceCriteria(task);
+  passSignals += criteriaResult.pass;
+  failSignals += criteriaResult.fail;
+  totalSignals += criteriaResult.total;
+  blockers.push(...criteriaResult.blockers);
+  suggestions.push(...criteriaResult.suggestions);
+
+  // Signal 3: Historical success patterns from brain_patterns
+  const patternResult = await assessHistoricalPatterns(task, stage, brainAccessor);
+  passSignals += patternResult.pass;
+  failSignals += patternResult.fail;
+  totalSignals += patternResult.total;
+  suggestions.push(...patternResult.suggestions);
+
+  // Signal 4: Applicable learnings from brain_learnings
+  const learningContext = await gatherLearningContext(task, brainAccessor);
+  if (learningContext.actionableCount > 0) {
+    passSignals += learningContext.averageConfidence;
+    totalSignals += 1;
+  }
+
+  // Compute pass likelihood
+  const passLikelihood =
+    totalSignals > 0
+      ? Math.round((passSignals / (passSignals + failSignals || 1)) * 1000) / 1000
+      : 0.5;
+
+  return {
+    taskId,
+    stage,
+    passLikelihood: Math.max(0, Math.min(1, passLikelihood)),
+    blockers,
+    suggestions,
+  };
+}
+
+// ============================================================================
+// Internal: Risk Factor Computation
+// ============================================================================
+
+async function computeComplexityFactor(task: Task, accessor: DataAccessor): Promise<RiskFactor> {
+  const depCount = task.depends?.length ?? 0;
+  let childCount = 0;
+
+  try {
+    childCount = await accessor.countChildren(task.id);
+  } catch {
+    // countChildren may fail for leaf tasks; default to 0
+  }
+
+  const sizeValue = SIZE_COMPLEXITY[task.size ?? 'medium'] ?? 0.5;
+  const depNormalized = Math.min(depCount / 10, 1.0);
+  const childNormalized = Math.min(childCount / 20, 1.0);
+
+  const value = sizeValue * 0.4 + depNormalized * 0.3 + childNormalized * 0.3;
+
+  const parts: string[] = [];
+  if (task.size) parts.push(`size=${task.size}`);
+  if (depCount > 0) parts.push(`${depCount} dependencies`);
+  if (childCount > 0) parts.push(`${childCount} children`);
+
+  return {
+    name: 'complexity',
+    weight: RISK_WEIGHTS.complexity,
+    value: Math.round(value * 1000) / 1000,
+    description:
+      parts.length > 0
+        ? `Task complexity based on ${parts.join(', ')}`
+        : 'Default complexity (no size/deps/children data)',
+  };
+}
+
+async function computeHistoricalFailureFactor(
+  task: Task,
+  brainAccessor: BrainDataAccessor,
+): Promise<RiskFactor> {
+  // Look for failure and blocker patterns in brain_patterns
+  const failurePatterns = await brainAccessor.findPatterns({ type: 'failure', limit: 50 });
+  const blockerPatterns = await brainAccessor.findPatterns({ type: 'blocker', limit: 50 });
+
+  const allNegativePatterns = [...failurePatterns, ...blockerPatterns];
+
+  if (allNegativePatterns.length === 0) {
+    return {
+      name: 'historical_failure',
+      weight: RISK_WEIGHTS.historicalFailure,
+      value: 0,
+      description: 'No historical failure patterns found in brain.db',
+    };
+  }
+
+  // Score based on average failure rate of matching patterns
+  let matchCount = 0;
+  let totalFailureRate = 0;
+
+  const taskLabels = new Set((task.labels ?? []).map((l) => l.toLowerCase()));
+  const taskTitle = task.title.toLowerCase();
+  const taskDesc = (task.description ?? '').toLowerCase();
+
+  for (const p of allNegativePatterns) {
+    const patternText = p.pattern.toLowerCase();
+    const contextText = p.context.toLowerCase();
+
+    // Check for textual overlap between pattern and task
+    const hasLabelMatch =
+      taskLabels.size > 0 &&
+      [...taskLabels].some((l) => patternText.includes(l) || contextText.includes(l));
+    const hasTitleMatch =
+      patternText.includes(taskTitle) || taskTitle.includes(patternText.slice(0, 20));
+    const hasDescMatch =
+      taskDesc.length > 10 &&
+      (patternText.includes(taskDesc.slice(0, 30)) || taskDesc.includes(patternText.slice(0, 30)));
+
+    if (hasLabelMatch || hasTitleMatch || hasDescMatch) {
+      matchCount++;
+      // successRate close to 0 means high failure rate
+      const failureRate = p.successRate !== null ? 1 - p.successRate : 0.5;
+      totalFailureRate += failureRate;
+    }
+  }
+
+  if (matchCount === 0) {
+    return {
+      name: 'historical_failure',
+      weight: RISK_WEIGHTS.historicalFailure,
+      value: 0,
+      description: 'No matching historical failure patterns for this task',
+    };
+  }
+
+  const avgFailureRate = totalFailureRate / matchCount;
+
+  return {
+    name: 'historical_failure',
+    weight: RISK_WEIGHTS.historicalFailure,
+    value: Math.round(avgFailureRate * 1000) / 1000,
+    description: `${matchCount} matching failure/blocker pattern(s) with avg failure rate ${Math.round(avgFailureRate * 100)}%`,
+  };
+}
+
+async function computeBlockingFactor(task: Task, accessor: DataAccessor): Promise<RiskFactor> {
+  // Count how many other tasks depend on this task (i.e., this task blocks them)
+  let blockedCount = 0;
+
+  try {
+    // Query all non-done tasks to find those that depend on this task
+    const { tasks: allTasks } = await accessor.queryTasks({
+      status: ['pending', 'active', 'blocked'],
+    });
+
+    for (const t of allTasks) {
+      if (t.depends?.includes(task.id)) {
+        blockedCount++;
+      }
+    }
+  } catch {
+    // Best-effort: if query fails, treat as unknown
+  }
+
+  // Normalize: 0 blocked = 0, 5+ blocked = 1.0
+  const value = Math.min(blockedCount / 5, 1.0);
+
+  return {
+    name: 'blocking_risk',
+    weight: RISK_WEIGHTS.blockingRisk,
+    value: Math.round(value * 1000) / 1000,
+    description:
+      blockedCount > 0
+        ? `This task blocks ${blockedCount} other task(s)`
+        : 'This task does not block any other tasks',
+  };
+}
+
+async function computeDependencyDepthFactor(
+  task: Task,
+  accessor: DataAccessor,
+): Promise<RiskFactor> {
+  // Walk the dependency chain to measure depth
+  let depth = 0;
+  const visited = new Set<string>();
+  let current = task;
+
+  while (current.depends && current.depends.length > 0 && depth < 10) {
+    const firstDep = current.depends[0];
+    if (visited.has(firstDep)) break; // cycle guard
+    visited.add(firstDep);
+
+    const depTask = await accessor.loadSingleTask(firstDep);
+    if (!depTask) break;
+
+    depth++;
+    current = depTask;
+  }
+
+  // Also count parent depth (hierarchy)
+  let hierarchyDepth = 0;
+  let parentId = task.parentId;
+  const visitedParents = new Set<string>();
+
+  while (parentId && hierarchyDepth < 10) {
+    if (visitedParents.has(parentId)) break;
+    visitedParents.add(parentId);
+
+    const parent = await accessor.loadSingleTask(parentId);
+    if (!parent) break;
+
+    hierarchyDepth++;
+    parentId = parent.parentId;
+  }
+
+  const totalDepth = depth + hierarchyDepth;
+  // Normalize: depth 0 = 0, depth 8+ = 1.0
+  const value = Math.min(totalDepth / 8, 1.0);
+
+  return {
+    name: 'dependency_depth',
+    weight: RISK_WEIGHTS.dependencyDepth,
+    value: Math.round(value * 1000) / 1000,
+    description: `Dependency chain depth: ${depth}, hierarchy depth: ${hierarchyDepth}`,
+  };
+}
+
+// ============================================================================
+// Internal: Validation Prediction Helpers
+// ============================================================================
+
+interface SignalResult {
+  pass: number;
+  fail: number;
+  total: number;
+  blockers: string[];
+  suggestions: string[];
+}
+
+function assessTaskStatus(task: Task, stage: string): SignalResult {
+  const blockers: string[] = [];
+  const suggestions: string[] = [];
+  let pass = 0;
+  let fail = 0;
+
+  if (task.status === 'blocked') {
+    fail += 1;
+    blockers.push(`Task is currently blocked${task.blockedBy ? `: ${task.blockedBy}` : ''}`);
+    suggestions.push('Resolve blocking issues before attempting gate validation');
+  } else if (task.status === 'cancelled') {
+    fail += 1;
+    blockers.push('Task is cancelled');
+  } else if (task.status === 'done') {
+    pass += 1;
+  } else if (task.status === 'active') {
+    // For early stages, active is fine; for late stages, may need completion
+    if (stage === 'verification' || stage === 'release') {
+      fail += 0.5;
+      suggestions.push(`Task should be completed before ${stage} gate`);
+    } else {
+      pass += 0.5;
+    }
+  } else {
+    // todo status
+    if (stage === 'specification') {
+      pass += 0.3;
+    } else {
+      fail += 0.5;
+      suggestions.push(
+        `Task is still in "${task.status}" status — work should begin before ${stage} gate`,
+      );
+    }
+  }
+
+  return { pass, fail, total: 1, blockers, suggestions };
+}
+
+function assessAcceptanceCriteria(task: Task): SignalResult {
+  const blockers: string[] = [];
+  const suggestions: string[] = [];
+
+  const criteria = task.acceptance ?? [];
+
+  if (criteria.length === 0) {
+    return {
+      pass: 0.3,
+      fail: 0.2,
+      total: 1,
+      blockers: [],
+      suggestions: ['Add acceptance criteria to improve validation confidence'],
+    };
+  }
+
+  // Having acceptance criteria is a positive signal
+  return {
+    pass: 0.7,
+    fail: 0,
+    total: 1,
+    blockers,
+    suggestions,
+  };
+}
+
+async function assessHistoricalPatterns(
+  task: Task,
+  stage: string,
+  brainAccessor: BrainDataAccessor,
+): Promise<SignalResult> {
+  const suggestions: string[] = [];
+  let pass = 0;
+  let fail = 0;
+  let total = 0;
+
+  const taskLabels = new Set((task.labels ?? []).map((l) => l.toLowerCase()));
+  const taskTitle = task.title.toLowerCase();
+
+  // Look for success patterns related to this stage or matching task attributes
+  const successPatterns = await brainAccessor.findPatterns({ type: 'success', limit: 30 });
+
+  for (const p of successPatterns) {
+    const ctx = p.context.toLowerCase();
+    const pat = p.pattern.toLowerCase();
+    const stageMatch = ctx.includes(stage.toLowerCase());
+    const labelMatch = [...taskLabels].some((l) => pat.includes(l) || ctx.includes(l));
+    const titleMatch = taskTitle
+      .split(/\s+/)
+      .filter((w) => w.length > 3)
+      .some((w) => pat.includes(w));
+
+    if (stageMatch || labelMatch || titleMatch) {
+      total++;
+      if (p.successRate !== null && p.successRate >= 0.7) {
+        pass += p.successRate;
+      } else {
+        pass += 0.5;
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  // Look for failure patterns related to this stage or matching task attributes
+  const failurePatterns = await brainAccessor.findPatterns({ type: 'failure', limit: 30 });
+
+  for (const p of failurePatterns) {
+    const ctx = p.context.toLowerCase();
+    const pat = p.pattern.toLowerCase();
+    const stageMatch = ctx.includes(stage.toLowerCase());
+    const labelMatch = [...taskLabels].some((l) => pat.includes(l) || ctx.includes(l));
+    const titleMatch = taskTitle
+      .split(/\s+/)
+      .filter((w) => w.length > 3)
+      .some((w) => pat.includes(w));
+
+    if (stageMatch || labelMatch || titleMatch) {
+      total++;
+      fail += p.successRate !== null ? 1 - p.successRate : 0.5;
+      if (p.mitigation) {
+        suggestions.push(`Historical pattern suggests: ${p.mitigation}`);
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  if (total === 0) {
+    return { pass: 0, fail: 0, total: 0, blockers: [], suggestions };
+  }
+
+  return { pass, fail, total, blockers: [], suggestions };
+}
+
+/**
+ * Gather applicable learnings for a task from brain_learnings.
+ */
+export async function gatherLearningContext(
+  task: Task,
+  brainAccessor: BrainDataAccessor,
+): Promise<LearningContext> {
+  const learnings = await brainAccessor.findLearnings({ limit: 100 });
+
+  const taskLabels = new Set((task.labels ?? []).map((l) => l.toLowerCase()));
+  const taskTitle = task.title.toLowerCase();
+
+  const applicable = learnings.filter((l) => {
+    const insight = l.insight.toLowerCase();
+    const source = l.source.toLowerCase();
+
+    // Match by task ID reference
+    if (insight.includes(task.id.toLowerCase()) || source.includes(task.id.toLowerCase())) {
+      return true;
+    }
+
+    // Match by label overlap
+    if (taskLabels.size > 0 && [...taskLabels].some((label) => insight.includes(label))) {
+      return true;
+    }
+
+    // Match by applicable types
+    const applicableTypes = JSON.parse(l.applicableTypesJson || '[]') as string[];
+    if (task.type && applicableTypes.includes(task.type)) {
+      return true;
+    }
+
+    // Match by title keyword overlap (at least 2 words matching)
+    const titleWords = taskTitle.split(/\s+/).filter((w) => w.length > 3);
+    const matchingWords = titleWords.filter((w) => insight.includes(w));
+    if (matchingWords.length >= 2) {
+      return true;
+    }
+
+    return false;
+  });
+
+  const totalConfidence = applicable.reduce((sum, l) => sum + l.confidence, 0);
+  const averageConfidence = applicable.length > 0 ? totalConfidence / applicable.length : 0;
+  const actionableCount = applicable.filter((l) => l.actionable).length;
+
+  return {
+    applicable,
+    averageConfidence: Math.round(averageConfidence * 1000) / 1000,
+    actionableCount,
+  };
+}
+
+// ============================================================================
+// Internal: Score Computation
+// ============================================================================
+
+function computeWeightedScore(factors: RiskFactor[]): number {
+  let totalWeight = 0;
+  let weightedSum = 0;
+
+  for (const f of factors) {
+    weightedSum += f.weight * f.value;
+    totalWeight += f.weight;
+  }
+
+  return totalWeight > 0 ? weightedSum / totalWeight : 0;
+}
+
+function generateRecommendation(score: number, factors: RiskFactor[]): string {
+  if (score <= RISK_THRESHOLDS.low) {
+    return 'Low risk. Proceed with normal workflow.';
+  }
+
+  if (score <= RISK_THRESHOLDS.medium) {
+    const topFactors = factors
+      .filter((f) => f.value > 0.4)
+      .sort((a, b) => b.value * b.weight - a.value * a.weight)
+      .slice(0, 2);
+
+    const factorNames = topFactors.map((f) => f.name).join(', ');
+    return `Moderate risk (${factorNames}). Consider extra review or decomposition.`;
+  }
+
+  if (score <= RISK_THRESHOLDS.high) {
+    return 'High risk. Recommend decomposition, additional testing, or pair review before proceeding.';
+  }
+
+  return 'Critical risk. Strongly recommend breaking this task into smaller units and addressing blockers first.';
+}