@cleocode/core 2026.3.42 → 2026.3.44

package/src/intelligence/__tests__/prediction.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,418 @@
+/**
+ * Unit tests for the Quality Prediction module.
+ *
+ * Tests risk scoring, validation outcome prediction, and learning context
+ * gathering. All external dependencies are mocked.
+ */
+
+import type { Task } from '@cleocode/contracts';
+import { beforeEach, describe, expect, it, vi } from 'vitest';
+import type { BrainDataAccessor } from '../../store/brain-accessor.js';
+import type { BrainLearningRow, BrainPatternRow } from '../../store/brain-schema.js';
+import type { DataAccessor } from '../../store/data-accessor.js';
+import {
+  calculateTaskRisk,
+  gatherLearningContext,
+  predictValidationOutcome,
+} from '../prediction.js';
+
+// ---- helpers ----------------------------------------------------------------
+
+function makeTask(overrides: Partial<Task> & { id: string; title: string }): Task {
+  return {
+    status: 'pending',
+    priority: 'medium',
+    description: `Description for ${overrides.id}`,
+    createdAt: new Date().toISOString(),
+    labels: [],
+    depends: [],
+    ...overrides,
+  } as Task;
+}
+
+function makePattern(overrides: Partial<BrainPatternRow> = {}): BrainPatternRow {
+  return {
+    id: `P-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2, 10)}`,
+    type: 'success',
+    pattern: 'test pattern',
+    context: 'test context',
+    frequency: 1,
+    successRate: null,
+    impact: null,
+    antiPattern: null,
+    mitigation: null,
+    examplesJson: '[]',
+    extractedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
+    updatedAt: null,
+    ...overrides,
+  };
+}
+
+function makeLearning(overrides: Partial<BrainLearningRow> = {}): BrainLearningRow {
+  return {
+    id: `L-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2, 10)}`,
+    insight: 'test insight',
+    source: 'test-source',
+    confidence: 0.7,
+    actionable: false,
+    application: null,
+    applicableTypesJson: '[]',
+    createdAt: new Date().toISOString(),
+    updatedAt: null,
+    ...overrides,
+  };
+}
+
+function mockTaskAccessor(tasks: Task[]): DataAccessor {
+  return {
+    loadSingleTask: vi
+      .fn()
+      .mockImplementation((id: string) => Promise.resolve(tasks.find((t) => t.id === id) ?? null)),
+    queryTasks: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue({ tasks, total: tasks.length }),
+    countChildren: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(0),
+    close: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(undefined),
+  } as unknown as DataAccessor;
+}
+
+function mockBrainAccessor(
+  patterns: BrainPatternRow[] = [],
+  learnings: BrainLearningRow[] = [],
+): BrainDataAccessor {
+  return {
+    findPatterns: vi.fn().mockImplementation((params?: { type?: string; limit?: number }) => {
+      let filtered = patterns;
+      if (params?.type) {
+        filtered = filtered.filter((p) => p.type === params.type);
+      }
+      if (params?.limit) {
+        filtered = filtered.slice(0, params.limit);
+      }
+      return Promise.resolve(filtered);
+    }),
+    findLearnings: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(learnings),
+    findObservations: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue([]),
+  } as unknown as BrainDataAccessor;
+}
+
+// ---- tests ----------------------------------------------------------------
+
+beforeEach(() => {
+  vi.clearAllMocks();
+});
+
+describe('calculateTaskRisk', () => {
+  it('returns zero risk for not-found task', async () => {
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([]);
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor();
+
+    const result = await calculateTaskRisk('T999', taskAccessor, brainAccessor);
+
+    expect(result.taskId).toBe('T999');
+    expect(result.riskScore).toBe(0);
+    expect(result.confidence).toBe(0);
+    expect(result.factors).toHaveLength(0);
+    expect(result.recommendation).toContain('not found');
+  });
+
+  it('calculates risk for a simple task with no dependencies', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Simple task', size: 'small' });
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([task]);
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor();
+
+    const result = await calculateTaskRisk('T001', taskAccessor, brainAccessor);
+
+    expect(result.taskId).toBe('T001');
+    expect(result.riskScore).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+    expect(result.riskScore).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1);
+    expect(result.confidence).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    expect(result.factors).toHaveLength(4);
+    expect(result.recommendation).toBeTruthy();
+  });
+
+  it('scores higher risk for a large task with many dependencies', async () => {
+    const deps = ['T010', 'T011', 'T012', 'T013', 'T014'];
+    const depTasks = deps.map((id) => makeTask({ id, title: `Dep ${id}` }));
+    const task = makeTask({
+      id: 'T001',
+      title: 'Complex task',
+      size: 'large',
+      depends: deps,
+    });
+    const allTasks = [task, ...depTasks];
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor(allTasks);
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor();
+
+    const result = await calculateTaskRisk('T001', taskAccessor, brainAccessor);
+
+    expect(result.riskScore).toBeGreaterThan(0.1);
+    const complexityFactor = result.factors.find((f) => f.name === 'complexity');
+    expect(complexityFactor).toBeDefined();
+    expect(complexityFactor!.value).toBeGreaterThan(0.3);
+  });
+
+  it('increases risk when task blocks other tasks', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Blocker task' });
+    const dependents = [
+      makeTask({ id: 'T002', title: 'Dep 1', depends: ['T001'] }),
+      makeTask({ id: 'T003', title: 'Dep 2', depends: ['T001'] }),
+      makeTask({ id: 'T004', title: 'Dep 3', depends: ['T001'] }),
+    ];
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([task, ...dependents]);
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor();
+
+    const result = await calculateTaskRisk('T001', taskAccessor, brainAccessor);
+
+    const blockingFactor = result.factors.find((f) => f.name === 'blocking_risk');
+    expect(blockingFactor).toBeDefined();
+    expect(blockingFactor!.value).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    expect(blockingFactor!.description).toContain('blocks');
+  });
+
+  it('considers historical failure patterns in risk score', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Auth migration', labels: ['auth'] });
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([task]);
+
+    const failurePatterns = [
+      makePattern({
+        type: 'failure',
+        pattern: 'Auth migrations tend to fail due to token format changes',
+        context: 'auth module',
+        successRate: 0.3,
+      }),
+    ];
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor(failurePatterns);
+
+    const result = await calculateTaskRisk('T001', taskAccessor, brainAccessor);
+
+    const historicalFactor = result.factors.find((f) => f.name === 'historical_failure');
+    expect(historicalFactor).toBeDefined();
+    expect(historicalFactor!.value).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+  });
+
+  it('returns low risk recommendation for simple tasks', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Fix typo', size: 'small' });
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([task]);
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor();
+
+    const result = await calculateTaskRisk('T001', taskAccessor, brainAccessor);
+
+    expect(result.recommendation).toContain('Low risk');
+  });
+
+  it('walks dependency chain for depth calculation', async () => {
+    const t3 = makeTask({ id: 'T003', title: 'Leaf', depends: [] });
+    const t2 = makeTask({ id: 'T002', title: 'Mid', depends: ['T003'] });
+    const t1 = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Root', depends: ['T002'] });
+
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([t1, t2, t3]);
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor();
+
+    const result = await calculateTaskRisk('T001', taskAccessor, brainAccessor);
+
+    const depthFactor = result.factors.find((f) => f.name === 'dependency_depth');
+    expect(depthFactor).toBeDefined();
+    expect(depthFactor!.value).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    expect(depthFactor!.description).toContain('Dependency chain depth: 2');
+  });
+});
+
+describe('predictValidationOutcome', () => {
+  it('returns zero likelihood for not-found task', async () => {
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([]);
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor();
+
+    const result = await predictValidationOutcome(
+      'T999',
+      'specification',
+      taskAccessor,
+      brainAccessor,
+    );
+
+    expect(result.taskId).toBe('T999');
+    expect(result.passLikelihood).toBe(0);
+    expect(result.blockers).toHaveLength(1);
+    expect(result.blockers[0]).toContain('not found');
+  });
+
+  it('predicts higher likelihood for done tasks', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Done task', status: 'done' });
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([task]);
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor();
+
+    const result = await predictValidationOutcome(
+      'T001',
+      'verification',
+      taskAccessor,
+      brainAccessor,
+    );
+
+    expect(result.passLikelihood).toBeGreaterThan(0.5);
+    expect(result.blockers).toHaveLength(0);
+  });
+
+  it('reports blockers for blocked tasks', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({
+      id: 'T001',
+      title: 'Blocked task',
+      status: 'blocked',
+      blockedBy: 'Waiting for API access',
+    });
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([task]);
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor();
+
+    const result = await predictValidationOutcome(
+      'T001',
+      'implementation',
+      taskAccessor,
+      brainAccessor,
+    );
+
+    expect(result.blockers.length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    expect(result.blockers[0]).toContain('blocked');
+    expect(result.suggestions.length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+  });
+
+  it('boosts prediction when acceptance criteria exist', async () => {
+    const taskWith = makeTask({
+      id: 'T001',
+      title: 'With criteria',
+      status: 'active',
+      acceptance: ['Unit tests pass', 'Integration tests pass'],
+    });
+    const taskWithout = makeTask({
+      id: 'T002',
+      title: 'Without criteria',
+      status: 'active',
+    });
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([taskWith, taskWithout]);
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor();
+
+    const resultWith = await predictValidationOutcome(
+      'T001',
+      'implementation',
+      taskAccessor,
+      brainAccessor,
+    );
+    const resultWithout = await predictValidationOutcome(
+      'T002',
+      'implementation',
+      taskAccessor,
+      brainAccessor,
+    );
+
+    expect(resultWith.passLikelihood).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(resultWithout.passLikelihood);
+  });
+
+  it('uses historical patterns for prediction', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Feature task', status: 'active' });
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([task]);
+
+    const patterns = [
+      makePattern({
+        type: 'success',
+        pattern: 'Implementation passes consistently',
+        context: 'implementation stage validation',
+        successRate: 0.9,
+      }),
+    ];
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor(patterns);
+
+    const result = await predictValidationOutcome(
+      'T001',
+      'implementation',
+      taskAccessor,
+      brainAccessor,
+    );
+
+    // Should have a reasonable pass likelihood given the success pattern
+    expect(result.passLikelihood).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+  });
+
+  it('suggests mitigation from failure patterns', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Deploy task', status: 'active' });
+    const taskAccessor = mockTaskAccessor([task]);
+
+    const patterns = [
+      makePattern({
+        type: 'failure',
+        pattern: 'Deployments fail when tests are skipped',
+        context: 'release stage gate',
+        successRate: 0.2,
+        mitigation: 'Always run full test suite before release',
+      }),
+    ];
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor(patterns);
+
+    const result = await predictValidationOutcome('T001', 'release', taskAccessor, brainAccessor);
+
+    expect(result.suggestions.some((s) => s.includes('test suite'))).toBe(true);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('gatherLearningContext', () => {
+  it('returns empty context when no learnings exist', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Test task' });
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor([], []);
+
+    const context = await gatherLearningContext(task, brainAccessor);
+
+    expect(context.applicable).toHaveLength(0);
+    expect(context.averageConfidence).toBe(0);
+    expect(context.actionableCount).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  it('matches learnings by task ID reference', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Auth fix' });
+    const learnings = [
+      makeLearning({
+        insight: 'Completed: T001 auth fix was successful',
+        source: 'task-completion:T001',
+        confidence: 0.8,
+        actionable: true,
+      }),
+      makeLearning({
+        insight: 'Unrelated learning about database',
+        source: 'manual',
+        confidence: 0.5,
+      }),
+    ];
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor([], learnings);
+
+    const context = await gatherLearningContext(task, brainAccessor);
+
+    expect(context.applicable).toHaveLength(1);
+    expect(context.applicable[0].insight).toContain('T001');
+    expect(context.actionableCount).toBe(1);
+  });
+
+  it('matches learnings by label overlap', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Auth feature', labels: ['auth', 'security'] });
+    const learnings = [
+      makeLearning({
+        insight: 'Auth module requires special token handling',
+        source: 'session-end:S-001',
+        confidence: 0.7,
+      }),
+    ];
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor([], learnings);
+
+    const context = await gatherLearningContext(task, brainAccessor);
+
+    expect(context.applicable).toHaveLength(1);
+  });
+
+  it('calculates average confidence correctly', async () => {
+    const task = makeTask({ id: 'T001', title: 'Test task', labels: ['test'] });
+    const learnings = [
+      makeLearning({ insight: 'Test insight 1', confidence: 0.6 }),
+      makeLearning({ insight: 'Test insight 2', confidence: 0.8 }),
+    ];
+    // Both contain 'test' so match by label
+    const brainAccessor = mockBrainAccessor([], learnings);
+
+    const context = await gatherLearningContext(task, brainAccessor);
+
+    expect(context.applicable).toHaveLength(2);
+    expect(context.averageConfidence).toBe(0.7);
+  });
+});