@claudexor/budget 1.0.1 → 2.1.1

package/README.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # @claudexor/budget
 
-Internal package of [Claudexor](https://github.com/razzant/claudexor) — Budget governor: pre-call lease reservation, loop detection, 3-tier circuit breaker, portfolio routing, observed quota.
+Internal package of [Claudexor](https://github.com/razzant/claudexor) — Budget governor: pre-call lease reservation, loop detection, 3-tier circuit breaker, routing goals, observed quota.
 
 Published as part of the Claudexor toolchain; it follows the monorepo's
 lockstep version and has no separate semver contract. Use the `claudexor`

package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 export * from "./ledger.js";
 export * from "./router.js";
 export * from "./observe.js";
-export { loadHarnessMetrics, recordHarnessMetric, metricsPath, type HarnessMetric, type HarnessMetrics } from "./metrics.js";
+export { loadHarnessMetrics, recordHarnessMetric, metricsPath, type HarnessMetric, type HarnessMetrics, } from "./metrics.js";
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.d.ts.map

package/dist/index.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"index.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/index.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,cAAc,aAAa,CAAC;AAC5B,cAAc,aAAa,CAAC;AAC5B,cAAc,cAAc,CAAC;AAC7B,OAAO,EACL,kBAAkB,EAClB,mBAAmB,EACnB,WAAW,EACX,KAAK,aAAa,EAClB,KAAK,cAAc,GACpB,MAAM,cAAc,CAAC"}

package/dist/index.js

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 export * from "./ledger.js";
 export * from "./router.js";
 export * from "./observe.js";
-export { loadHarnessMetrics, recordHarnessMetric, metricsPath } from "./metrics.js";
+export { loadHarnessMetrics, recordHarnessMetric, metricsPath, } from "./metrics.js";
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"index.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/index.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,cAAc,aAAa,CAAC;AAC5B,cAAc,aAAa,CAAC;AAC5B,cAAc,cAAc,CAAC;AAC7B,OAAO,EACL,kBAAkB,EAClB,mBAAmB,EACnB,WAAW,GAGZ,MAAM,cAAc,CAAC"}

package/dist/ledger.d.ts

@@ -1,8 +1,6 @@
-import type { BudgetLease, BudgetObservation, Intent } from "@claudexor/schema";
+import type { BillingKnowledge, BudgetLease, BudgetObservation, CostEvidence, CostKnowledge, CredentialRoute, Intent, PaidBudget, QuotaSnapshot } from "@claudexor/schema";
 export type CircuitTier = "ok" | "soft" | "downgrade" | "hard";
-export interface BudgetLimits {
-    maxUsd?: number | null;
-}
+export type BudgetTerminal = "exhausted" | "exhausted_overshoot" | "cost_unverifiable" | null;
 export interface CircuitThresholds {
     soft: number;
     downgrade: number;
@@ -14,69 +12,87 @@ export interface ReserveInput {
     intent: Intent;
     harnessId: string;
     modelHint?: string | null;
-    maxUsd?: number | null;
     reason?: string[];
-    /**
-     * Estimated USD the unit may spend, held against the cap until settled. Holds
-     * make concurrent in-flight units visible to `tier()` so a parallel race wave
-     * cannot blow past `max_usd` between settlements.
-     */
-    estimateUsd?: number;
+    cost?: CostEvidence;
+}
+export interface BudgetSettlement {
+    knowledge: CostKnowledge;
+    source: string;
+    provenance: string[];
+    cashUsd?: number;
+    valuationUsd?: number;
 }
 export interface ReserveResult {
     granted: boolean;
     tier: CircuitTier;
     lease?: BudgetLease;
     reason?: string;
-    /** Typed denial cause (no string matching on `reason`): `hard_cap` = the
-     * breaker already tripped; `estimate_headroom` = the DD-27 wave guard —
-     * this slot's estimate does not fit, but already-granted work continues. */
-    denied?: "hard_cap" | "estimate_headroom";
+    denied?: "hard_cap" | "estimate_headroom" | "finite_zero" | "unknown_paid_in_flight";
 }
 /** Stable fingerprint of a prompt for loop detection. */
 export declare function promptFingerprint(prompt: string): string;
-/**
- * Dollar-based budget ledger with pre-call reservation, prompt-fingerprint loop
- * detection, and a 3-tier circuit breaker (soft-warn -> downgrade -> hard-kill).
- * Sub-ledgers (children) roll their spend up to the parent.
- */
+/** One root incremental-cash ledger. Nested work receives this same instance. */
 export declare class BudgetLedger {
-    private readonly limits;
+    private readonly budget;
     private readonly thresholds;
-    private readonly parent?;
+    private readonly deps;
     private readonly leases;
-    /** Outstanding USD holds for reserved-but-unsettled leases (amount-bearing). */
     private readonly holds;
+    private readonly unknownPaidInFlight;
     private readonly observations;
+    private readonly quotaSnapshots;
     private readonly promptCounts;
     private spendUsd;
-    constructor(limits?: BudgetLimits, thresholds?: CircuitThresholds, parent?: BudgetLedger | undefined);
-    /** Create a child sub-ledger whose spend rolls up to this one. */
-    child(limits?: BudgetLimits): BudgetLedger;
+    private valuationUsd;
+    private overshot;
+    private unverifiable;
+    constructor(budget?: PaidBudget, thresholds?: CircuitThresholds, deps?: {
+        /**
+         * Fires after every settle with the CUMULATIVE ledger truth. The ledger
+         * is the one owner of "how much real money this run has spent" —
+         * subscription-entitled work settles to cash 0 here (W4.3 sol #15), so
+         * consumers (run events → UI) render cash without inferring from route
+         * labels. Valuation rides along for telemetry, never for the cash fact.
+         */
+        onCashSettled?: (cashSpendUsd: number, valuationUsd: number) => void;
+    });
     private outstandingHolds;
+    private cap;
     tier(): CircuitTier;
-    /** USD still available under the nearest cap in the ledger chain (null = uncapped). */
-    private remainingHeadroomUsd;
+    remainingUsd(): number | null;
     reserve(input: ReserveInput): ReserveResult;
-    /**
-     * Raise a lease's hold to the cost streamed so far (never lowers it). Call from
-     * the usage-event stream so `tier()` reflects in-flight spend mid-attempt.
-     */
     updateHold(leaseId: string, streamedUsd: number): void;
-    private setHold;
-    private adjustRollupHold;
-    private clearHold;
-    settle(leaseId: string, actualUsd: number): void;
+    settle(leaseId: string, settlement: BudgetSettlement): void;
     cancel(leaseId: string): void;
-    private addRollupSpend;
     spend(): number;
-    observe(o: BudgetObservation): void;
+    valuation(): number;
+    terminal(): BudgetTerminal;
+    observe(observation: BudgetObservation): void;
+    /** Seed durable quota projection without collapsing credential identities. */
+    observeQuotaSnapshot(snapshot: QuotaSnapshot): void;
     observationsFor(harnessId: string): BudgetObservation[];
-    /** True if the harness is in an active cooldown (from an observed rate-limit). */
-    cooldownActive(harnessId: string, now?: number): boolean;
-    /** Observed remaining headroom (0..1) for a harness, or 1 if unknown. */
-    headroom(harnessId: string): number;
+    cooldownActive(harnessId: string, credentialRoute?: CredentialRoute, credentialSubjectId?: string | null, now?: number): boolean;
+    /** Binding pacing slack across applicable windows; null means honestly unknown. */
+    bindingPaceSlack(harnessId: string, credentialRoute?: CredentialRoute, credentialSubjectId?: string | null, now?: number): number | null;
+    /** Fresh snapshots for a harness+route, optionally pinned to ONE credential
+     * subject (release wave round-16 #2): when the caller knows the effective
+     * subject — a profile id, or null for the engine default — only that
+     * subject's windows apply, so profile A's exhaustion never cools profile B
+     * or the default. `undefined` = subject unknown, conservative any-subject. */
+    private snapshotsFor;
     recordPrompt(fingerprint: string): number;
     isLoop(fingerprint: string, threshold?: number): boolean;
 }
+export declare function routeCostEvidence(input: {
+    billing?: BillingKnowledge;
+    knowledge?: CostKnowledge;
+    source: string;
+    provenance: string[];
+    estimatedUsd?: number | null;
+}): CostEvidence;
+export declare function attemptCostEvidence(harnessId: string, attemptId: string, estimatedUsd?: number, billing?: BillingKnowledge): CostEvidence;
+export declare function usageCostSettlement(cashUsd: number, estimated: boolean, source: string, provenance: string[]): BudgetSettlement;
+export declare function attemptUsageCostSettlement(cashUsd: number, estimated: boolean, attemptId: string, harnessId: string, authMode?: "local_session" | "api_key" | null): BudgetSettlement;
+export declare function unknownCostSettlement(source: string, cashUsd?: number): BudgetSettlement;
+export declare function isBudgetTerminal(status: string | null): status is Exclude<BudgetTerminal, null>;
 //# sourceMappingURL=ledger.d.ts.map

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package/dist/ledger.js

@@ -1,91 +1,99 @@
-import { BudgetLease as BudgetLeaseSchema } from "@claudexor/schema";
+import { BudgetLease as BudgetLeaseSchema, CostEvidence as CostEvidenceSchema, } from "@claudexor/schema";
 import { newId, nowIso, sha256 } from "@claudexor/util";
+const UNKNOWN_COST = {
+    knowledge: "unknown",
+    billing: "unknown",
+    source: "route_preflight",
+    provenance: ["route:billing-unknown"],
+    estimatedUsd: null,
+};
 /** Stable fingerprint of a prompt for loop detection. */
 export function promptFingerprint(prompt) {
     return sha256(prompt.trim().replace(/\s+/g, " ").toLowerCase());
 }
-/**
- * Dollar-based budget ledger with pre-call reservation, prompt-fingerprint loop
- * detection, and a 3-tier circuit breaker (soft-warn -> downgrade -> hard-kill).
- * Sub-ledgers (children) roll their spend up to the parent.
- */
+/** One root incremental-cash ledger. Nested work receives this same instance. */
 export class BudgetLedger {
-    limits;
+    budget;
     thresholds;
-    parent;
+    deps;
     leases = new Map();
-    /** Outstanding USD holds for reserved-but-unsettled leases (amount-bearing). */
     holds = new Map();
+    unknownPaidInFlight = new Set();
     observations = [];
+    quotaSnapshots = new Map();
     promptCounts = new Map();
     spendUsd = 0;
-    constructor(limits = {}, thresholds = { soft: 0.75, downgrade: 0.9, hard: 1.0 }, parent) {
-        this.limits = limits;
+    valuationUsd = 0;
+    overshot = false;
+    unverifiable = false;
+    constructor(budget = { kind: "unlimited" }, thresholds = { soft: 0.75, downgrade: 0.9, hard: 1 }, deps = {}) {
+        this.budget = budget;
         this.thresholds = thresholds;
-        this.parent = parent;
-    }
-    /** Create a child sub-ledger whose spend rolls up to this one. */
-    child(limits = {}) {
-        return new BudgetLedger(limits, this.thresholds, this);
+        this.deps = deps;
     }
     outstandingHolds() {
         let sum = 0;
-        for (const v of this.holds.values())
-            sum += v;
+        for (const value of this.holds.values())
+            sum += value;
         return sum;
     }
+    cap() {
+        return this.budget.kind === "finite" ? this.budget.maxUsd : null;
+    }
     tier() {
-        const cap = this.limits.maxUsd ?? null;
-        const localTier = (() => {
-            if (cap === null || cap <= 0)
-                return "ok";
-            // Settled spend + outstanding in-flight holds: a parallel wave of
-            // streaming candidates counts against the cap BEFORE settlement.
-            const ratio = (this.spendUsd + this.outstandingHolds()) / cap;
-            if (ratio >= this.thresholds.hard)
-                return "hard";
-            if (ratio >= this.thresholds.downgrade)
-                return "downgrade";
-            if (ratio >= this.thresholds.soft)
-                return "soft";
+        const cap = this.cap();
+        if (cap === null)
             return "ok";
-        })();
-        const parentTier = this.parent?.tier() ?? "ok";
-        return mostSevere(localTier, parentTier);
-    }
-    /** USD still available under the nearest cap in the ledger chain (null = uncapped). */
-    remainingHeadroomUsd() {
-        const cap = this.limits.maxUsd ?? null;
-        const local = cap === null || cap <= 0 ? null : cap * this.thresholds.hard - (this.spendUsd + this.outstandingHolds());
-        const parent = this.parent?.remainingHeadroomUsd() ?? null;
-        if (local === null)
-            return parent;
-        if (parent === null)
-            return local;
-        return Math.min(local, parent);
+        if (this.overshot)
+            return "hard";
+        if (cap === 0)
+            return this.spendUsd > 0 || this.outstandingHolds() > 0 ? "hard" : "ok";
+        const ratio = (this.spendUsd + this.outstandingHolds()) / cap;
+        if (ratio >= this.thresholds.hard)
+            return "hard";
+        if (ratio >= this.thresholds.downgrade)
+            return "downgrade";
+        if (ratio >= this.thresholds.soft)
+            return "soft";
+        return "ok";
+    }
+    remainingUsd() {
+        const cap = this.cap();
+        return cap === null ? null : Math.max(0, cap - this.spendUsd - this.outstandingHolds());
     }
     reserve(input) {
-        const tier = this.tier();
-        if (tier === "hard") {
-            return { granted: false, tier, reason: "budget exhausted (hard cap reached)", denied: "hard_cap" };
+        const cost = CostEvidenceSchema.parse(input.cost ?? UNKNOWN_COST);
+        const zeroCash = cost.billing === "proven_zero" || cost.billing === "subscription_entitlement";
+        const cap = this.cap();
+        if (cap === 0 && !zeroCash) {
+            return {
+                granted: false,
+                tier: "hard",
+                denied: "finite_zero",
+                reason: "finite(0) admits only proven-zero or subscription-entitlement work",
+            };
         }
-        // DD-27 wave guard: an estimate-bearing reservation must FIT UNDER the
-        // remaining headroom, or it is DENIED without recording the hold — a
-        // denied slot must never poison the tier for candidates that were already
-        // granted. `>=` on purpose: an estimate that exactly consumes headroom
-        // would trip the hard tier the instant its hold lands, cancelling every
-        // in-flight candidate with $0 real spend (the equality case is common —
-        // caps and the floor are both round nickels).
-        if (typeof input.estimateUsd === "number" && input.estimateUsd > 0) {
-            const headroom = this.remainingHeadroomUsd();
-            if (headroom !== null && input.estimateUsd >= headroom) {
-                return {
-                    granted: false,
-                    tier,
-                    reason: `insufficient headroom for estimated cost (${input.estimateUsd.toFixed(2)} USD >= ${Math.max(headroom, 0).toFixed(2)} USD remaining)`,
-                    denied: "estimate_headroom",
-                };
-            }
+        if (this.tier() === "hard" && !zeroCash) {
+            return { granted: false, tier: "hard", denied: "hard_cap", reason: "budget exhausted" };
+        }
+        const unknownPaid = !zeroCash && cost.knowledge === "unknown";
+        if (cap !== null && cap > 0 && unknownPaid && this.unknownPaidInFlight.size > 0) {
+            return {
+                granted: false,
+                tier: this.tier(),
+                denied: "unknown_paid_in_flight",
+                reason: "one unknown-cost paid unit is already in flight",
+            };
+        }
+        const estimate = zeroCash ? 0 : (cost.estimatedUsd ?? 0);
+        const headroom = this.remainingUsd();
+        if (estimate > 0 && headroom !== null && estimate >= headroom) {
+            return {
+                granted: false,
+                tier: this.tier(),
+                denied: "estimate_headroom",
+                reason: `insufficient headroom for estimated cost (${estimate.toFixed(2)} USD >= ${headroom.toFixed(2)} USD remaining)`,
+            };
         }
         const lease = BudgetLeaseSchema.parse({
             lease_id: newId("lease"),
@@ -94,119 +102,237 @@ export class BudgetLedger {
             intent: input.intent,
             harness_id: input.harnessId,
             model_hint: input.modelHint ?? null,
-            max_usd: input.maxUsd ?? null,
+            cost,
             reason: input.reason ?? [],
             created_at: nowIso(),
             state: "reserved",
         });
         this.leases.set(lease.lease_id, lease);
-        if (typeof input.estimateUsd === "number" && input.estimateUsd > 0) {
-            this.setHold(lease.lease_id, input.estimateUsd);
-        }
-        return { granted: true, tier, lease };
+        if (estimate > 0)
+            this.holds.set(lease.lease_id, estimate);
+        if (unknownPaid && cap !== null)
+            this.unknownPaidInFlight.add(lease.lease_id);
+        return { granted: true, tier: this.tier(), lease };
     }
-    /**
-     * Raise a lease's hold to the cost streamed so far (never lowers it). Call from
-     * the usage-event stream so `tier()` reflects in-flight spend mid-attempt.
-     */
     updateHold(leaseId, streamedUsd) {
-        if (!this.leases.has(leaseId))
+        const lease = this.leases.get(leaseId);
+        if (!lease || lease.state !== "reserved")
+            return;
+        if (lease.cost.billing === "proven_zero" || lease.cost.billing === "subscription_entitlement")
             return;
         const current = this.holds.get(leaseId) ?? 0;
         if (streamedUsd > current)
-            this.setHold(leaseId, streamedUsd);
-    }
-    setHold(leaseId, usd) {
-        const prev = this.holds.get(leaseId) ?? 0;
-        this.holds.set(leaseId, usd);
-        this.parent?.adjustRollupHold(leaseId, usd - prev);
-    }
-    adjustRollupHold(leaseId, deltaUsd) {
-        const key = `child:${leaseId}`;
-        const prev = this.holds.get(key) ?? 0;
-        const next = Math.max(0, prev + deltaUsd);
-        if (next === 0)
-            this.holds.delete(key);
-        else
-            this.holds.set(key, next);
-        this.parent?.adjustRollupHold(leaseId, deltaUsd);
-    }
-    clearHold(leaseId) {
-        const held = this.holds.get(leaseId) ?? 0;
-        this.holds.delete(leaseId);
-        if (held > 0)
-            this.parent?.adjustRollupHold(leaseId, -held);
+            this.holds.set(leaseId, streamedUsd);
     }
-    settle(leaseId, actualUsd) {
+    settle(leaseId, settlement) {
         const lease = this.leases.get(leaseId);
-        // Fail loudly: settling a lease this ledger never granted would attribute
-        // spend to nothing (a bookkeeping bug, not a runtime race).
         if (!lease)
             throw new Error(`cannot settle unknown lease: ${leaseId}`);
-        // Idempotent for the spend add: a duplicate settle (success path followed
-        // by a late error handler) must never double-count real spend. DECIDED
-        // TRADEOFF: this no-op can also mask a genuine double-settle bug — spend
-        // correctness wins because the duplicate-settle race is a real runtime
-        // path (terminal handler + error handler), while a masked bug still
-        // surfaces in the rollup totals a test would assert on.
         if (lease.state !== "reserved")
             return;
         lease.state = "settled";
-        this.clearHold(leaseId);
-        this.spendUsd += actualUsd;
-        this.parent?.addRollupSpend(actualUsd);
+        this.holds.delete(leaseId);
+        this.unknownPaidInFlight.delete(leaseId);
+        const zeroCash = lease.cost.billing === "proven_zero" || lease.cost.billing === "subscription_entitlement";
+        const cashUsd = zeroCash ? 0 : Math.max(0, settlement.cashUsd ?? 0);
+        this.spendUsd += cashUsd;
+        this.valuationUsd += Math.max(0, settlement.valuationUsd ?? (zeroCash ? (settlement.cashUsd ?? 0) : 0));
+        if (this.budget.kind === "finite") {
+            if (!zeroCash && settlement.knowledge === "unknown")
+                this.unverifiable = true;
+            if (this.spendUsd > this.budget.maxUsd)
+                this.overshot = true;
+        }
+        this.deps.onCashSettled?.(this.spendUsd, this.valuationUsd);
     }
     cancel(leaseId) {
         const lease = this.leases.get(leaseId);
-        if (lease)
+        if (lease?.state === "reserved")
             lease.state = "cancelled";
-        this.clearHold(leaseId);
-    }
-    addRollupSpend(usd) {
-        this.spendUsd += usd;
-        this.parent?.addRollupSpend(usd);
+        this.holds.delete(leaseId);
+        this.unknownPaidInFlight.delete(leaseId);
     }
     spend() {
         return this.spendUsd;
     }
-    observe(o) {
-        this.observations.push(o);
+    valuation() {
+        return this.valuationUsd;
+    }
+    terminal() {
+        if (this.overshot)
+            return "exhausted_overshoot";
+        if (this.unverifiable)
+            return "cost_unverifiable";
+        return this.tier() === "hard" ? "exhausted" : null;
+    }
+    observe(observation) {
+        this.observations.push(observation);
+    }
+    /** Seed durable quota projection without collapsing credential identities. */
+    observeQuotaSnapshot(snapshot) {
+        const subject = snapshot.subject;
+        const key = [
+            subject.harness,
+            subject.credential_route,
+            subject.subject_id ?? "",
+            snapshot.source,
+        ].join("\0");
+        this.quotaSnapshots.set(key, snapshot);
     }
     observationsFor(harnessId) {
-        return this.observations.filter((o) => o.harness_id === harnessId);
+        return this.observations.filter((observation) => observation.harness_id === harnessId);
     }
-    /** True if the harness is in an active cooldown (from an observed rate-limit). */
-    cooldownActive(harnessId, now = Date.now()) {
-        return this.observationsFor(harnessId).some((o) => {
-            if (!o.cooldown_until)
+    cooldownActive(harnessId, credentialRoute, credentialSubjectId, now = Date.now()) {
+        // Live observations are subject- AND route-scoped like snapshots
+        // (rounds 17-18): a profiled or API-key rate-limit must never cool the
+        // same harness's other subjects or its healthy other route. `undefined`
+        // caller subject/route = conservative any; a LEGACY observation without
+        // a route stamp stays conservative (applies to every route).
+        const liveObservation = this.observationsFor(harnessId).some((observation) => {
+            if (credentialSubjectId !== undefined &&
+                (observation.subject_id ?? null) !== credentialSubjectId)
+                return false;
+            if (credentialRoute !== undefined &&
+                observation.credential_route !== undefined &&
+                observation.credential_route !== credentialRoute)
+                return false;
+            if (!observation.cooldown_until)
                 return false;
-            const t = Date.parse(o.cooldown_until);
-            return Number.isFinite(t) && t > now;
+            const time = Date.parse(observation.cooldown_until);
+            return Number.isFinite(time) && time > now;
         });
+        if (liveObservation)
+            return true;
+        if (!credentialRoute)
+            return false;
+        return this.snapshotsFor(harnessId, credentialRoute, credentialSubjectId).some((snapshot) => snapshot.constraints.some((constraint) => {
+            const cooldown = constraint.cooldown_until
+                ? Date.parse(constraint.cooldown_until)
+                : Number.NaN;
+            const reset = constraint.resets_at ? Date.parse(constraint.resets_at) : Number.NaN;
+            return ((Number.isFinite(cooldown) && cooldown > now) ||
+                (constraint.used_ratio !== null &&
+                    constraint.used_ratio >= 1 &&
+                    Number.isFinite(reset) &&
+                    reset > now));
+        }));
+    }
+    /** Binding pacing slack across applicable windows; null means honestly unknown. */
+    bindingPaceSlack(harnessId, credentialRoute, credentialSubjectId, now = Date.now()) {
+        const latest = new Map();
+        for (const observation of this.observationsFor(harnessId)) {
+            if (observation.kind !== "quota_constraint" || !observation.constraint_id)
+                continue;
+            // Subject- and route-scoped like cooldowns (rounds 17-18); the latest
+            // key includes route+subject so two routes' same-named windows never
+            // overwrite each other.
+            if (credentialSubjectId !== undefined &&
+                (observation.subject_id ?? null) !== credentialSubjectId)
+                continue;
+            if (credentialRoute !== undefined &&
+                observation.credential_route !== undefined &&
+                observation.credential_route !== credentialRoute)
+                continue;
+            latest.set(`${observation.credential_route ?? ""}\0${observation.subject_id ?? ""}\0${observation.constraint_id}`, observation);
+        }
+        const slacks = [];
+        for (const observation of latest.values()) {
+            if (typeof observation.used_ratio !== "number" ||
+                typeof observation.window_seconds !== "number" ||
+                !observation.resets_at)
+                continue;
+            const resetMs = Date.parse(observation.resets_at);
+            if (!Number.isFinite(resetMs) || resetMs <= now)
+                continue;
+            const remaining = Math.min(1, Math.max(0, (resetMs - now) / 1000 / observation.window_seconds));
+            const elapsedFraction = 1 - remaining;
+            slacks.push(elapsedFraction - observation.used_ratio);
+        }
+        if (credentialRoute) {
+            for (const snapshot of this.snapshotsFor(harnessId, credentialRoute, credentialSubjectId)) {
+                for (const constraint of snapshot.constraints) {
+                    if (typeof constraint.used_ratio !== "number" ||
+                        typeof constraint.window_seconds !== "number" ||
+                        !constraint.resets_at)
+                        continue;
+                    const resetMs = Date.parse(constraint.resets_at);
+                    if (!Number.isFinite(resetMs) || resetMs <= now)
+                        continue;
+                    const remaining = Math.min(1, Math.max(0, (resetMs - now) / 1000 / constraint.window_seconds));
+                    slacks.push(1 - remaining - constraint.used_ratio);
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        return slacks.length > 0 ? Math.min(...slacks) : null;
     }
-    /** Observed remaining headroom (0..1) for a harness, or 1 if unknown. */
-    headroom(harnessId) {
-        const used = this.observationsFor(harnessId)
-            .map((o) => o.used_percent)
-            .filter((v) => typeof v === "number");
-        if (used.length === 0)
-            return 1;
-        const maxUsed = Math.max(...used);
-        return Math.max(0, 1 - maxUsed / 100);
+    /** Fresh snapshots for a harness+route, optionally pinned to ONE credential
+     * subject (release wave round-16 #2): when the caller knows the effective
+     * subject — a profile id, or null for the engine default — only that
+     * subject's windows apply, so profile A's exhaustion never cools profile B
+     * or the default. `undefined` = subject unknown, conservative any-subject. */
+    snapshotsFor(harnessId, credentialRoute, credentialSubjectId) {
+        return [...this.quotaSnapshots.values()].filter((snapshot) => snapshot.freshness === "fresh" &&
+            snapshot.subject.harness === harnessId &&
+            snapshot.subject.credential_route === credentialRoute &&
+            (credentialSubjectId === undefined ||
+                (snapshot.subject.subject_id ?? null) === credentialSubjectId));
     }
     recordPrompt(fingerprint) {
-        const n = (this.promptCounts.get(fingerprint) ?? 0) + 1;
-        this.promptCounts.set(fingerprint, n);
-        return n;
+        const count = (this.promptCounts.get(fingerprint) ?? 0) + 1;
+        this.promptCounts.set(fingerprint, count);
+        return count;
     }
     isLoop(fingerprint, threshold = 3) {
         return (this.promptCounts.get(fingerprint) ?? 0) >= threshold;
     }
 }
-function severity(t) {
-    return { ok: 0, soft: 1, downgrade: 2, hard: 3 }[t];
+export function routeCostEvidence(input) {
+    return CostEvidenceSchema.parse({
+        billing: input.billing ?? "unknown",
+        knowledge: input.knowledge ?? "unknown",
+        source: input.source,
+        provenance: input.provenance,
+        estimatedUsd: input.estimatedUsd ?? null,
+    });
+}
+export function attemptCostEvidence(harnessId, attemptId, estimatedUsd, billing = "unknown") {
+    return routeCostEvidence({
+        source: "route-preflight",
+        provenance: [`harness:${harnessId}`, `attempt:${attemptId}`, `billing:${billing}`],
+        billing,
+        knowledge: estimatedUsd === undefined ? "unknown" : "estimated",
+        estimatedUsd: estimatedUsd ?? null,
+    });
+}
+export function usageCostSettlement(cashUsd, estimated, source, provenance) {
+    return cashUsd > 0
+        ? { knowledge: estimated ? "estimated" : "exact", source, provenance, cashUsd }
+        : { knowledge: "unknown", source: `${source}-missing`, provenance };
+}
+export function attemptUsageCostSettlement(cashUsd, estimated, attemptId, harnessId, authMode) {
+    if (authMode === "local_session" && estimated) {
+        return {
+            knowledge: "unknown",
+            source: "harness-token-valuation",
+            provenance: [`attempt:${attemptId}`, `harness:${harnessId}`, "route:vendor_native"],
+            valuationUsd: cashUsd,
+        };
+    }
+    return usageCostSettlement(cashUsd, estimated, "harness-usage", [
+        `attempt:${attemptId}`,
+        `harness:${harnessId}`,
+        ...(authMode ? [`route:${authMode}`] : []),
+    ]);
+}
+export function unknownCostSettlement(source, cashUsd) {
+    return {
+        knowledge: "unknown",
+        source,
+        provenance: [`orchestrator:${source}`],
+        ...(cashUsd === undefined ? {} : { cashUsd }),
+    };
 }
-function mostSevere(a, b) {
-    return severity(a) >= severity(b) ? a : b;
+export function isBudgetTerminal(status) {
+    return (status === "exhausted" || status === "exhausted_overshoot" || status === "cost_unverifiable");
 }
 //# sourceMappingURL=ledger.js.map

package/dist/ledger.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/metrics.d.ts

@@ -2,13 +2,27 @@ export interface HarnessMetric {
     avg_cost_usd: number | null;
     avg_duration_ms: number | null;
     samples: number;
+    /**
+     * Auth route the harness's LAST settled attempt actually ran under
+     * (adapter-disclosed route evidence, not a manifest capability guess).
+     * Economy routing may consume settled cost as evidence; no quality prior is
+     * inferred. Null until any attempt disclosed a route.
+     */
+    last_auth_mode: "local_session" | "api_key" | null;
 }
 export type HarnessMetrics = Record<string, HarnessMetric>;
 export declare function metricsPath(configDir: string): string;
 export declare function loadHarnessMetrics(configDir: string): HarnessMetrics;
-/** Record one settled attempt (EMA update; atomic tmp+rename write). */
+/**
+ * Record one settled attempt (EMA update; atomic tmp+rename write).
+ * `authMode` is route evidence and updates independently of the performance
+ * sample: an auth-only record (no cost/duration) refreshes `last_auth_mode`
+ * WITHOUT counting a sample, so errored attempts can still disclose the route
+ * they burned without earning a flattering latency average.
+ */
 export declare function recordHarnessMetric(configDir: string, harnessId: string, sample: {
     costUsd?: number | null;
     durationMs?: number | null;
+    authMode?: "local_session" | "api_key" | null;
 }): void;
 //# sourceMappingURL=metrics.d.ts.map

package/dist/metrics.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"metrics.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/metrics.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAWA,MAAM,WAAW,aAAa;IAC5B,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAC5B,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAC/B,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACjB;AAED,MAAM,MAAM,cAAc,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;AAM3D,wBAAgB,WAAW,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,CAErD;AAED,wBAAgB,kBAAkB,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,cAAc,CAiBpE;AAED,wEAAwE;AACxE,wBAAgB,mBAAmB,CACjC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,EACjB,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,EACjB,MAAM,EAAE;IAAE,OAAO,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAAC,UAAU,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAA;CAAE,GAC9D,IAAI,CAyBN"}
+{"version":3,"file":"metrics.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/metrics.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAWA,MAAM,WAAW,aAAa;IAC5B,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAC5B,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAC/B,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAChB;;;;;OAKG;IACH,cAAc,EAAE,eAAe,GAAG,SAAS,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;CACpD;AAED,MAAM,MAAM,cAAc,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC;AAM3D,wBAAgB,WAAW,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,CAErD;AAED,wBAAgB,kBAAkB,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,cAAc,CAiCpE;AAED;;;;;;GAMG;AACH,wBAAgB,mBAAmB,CACjC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,EACjB,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,EACjB,MAAM,EAAE;IACN,OAAO,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACxB,UAAU,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAC3B,QAAQ,CAAC,EAAE,eAAe,GAAG,SAAS,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;CAC/C,GACA,IAAI,CAmCN"}

package/dist/metrics.js

@@ -24,8 +24,15 @@ export function loadHarnessMetrics(configDir) {
             const m = v;
             out[id] = {
                 avg_cost_usd: typeof m.avg_cost_usd === "number" && m.avg_cost_usd >= 0 ? m.avg_cost_usd : null,
-                avg_duration_ms: typeof m.avg_duration_ms === "number" && m.avg_duration_ms >= 0 ? m.avg_duration_ms : null,
-                samples: typeof m.samples === "number" && m.samples > 0 ? Math.min(m.samples, MAX_SAMPLES_COUNTED) : 0,
+                avg_duration_ms: typeof m.avg_duration_ms === "number" && m.avg_duration_ms >= 0
+                    ? m.avg_duration_ms
+                    : null,
+                samples: typeof m.samples === "number" && m.samples > 0
+                    ? Math.min(m.samples, MAX_SAMPLES_COUNTED)
+                    : 0,
+                last_auth_mode: m.last_auth_mode === "local_session" || m.last_auth_mode === "api_key"
+                    ? m.last_auth_mode
+                    : null,
             };
         }
         return out;
@@ -34,10 +41,21 @@ export function loadHarnessMetrics(configDir) {
         return {};
     }
 }
-/** Record one settled attempt (EMA update; atomic tmp+rename write). */
+/**
+ * Record one settled attempt (EMA update; atomic tmp+rename write).
+ * `authMode` is route evidence and updates independently of the performance
+ * sample: an auth-only record (no cost/duration) refreshes `last_auth_mode`
+ * WITHOUT counting a sample, so errored attempts can still disclose the route
+ * they burned without earning a flattering latency average.
+ */
 export function recordHarnessMetric(configDir, harnessId, sample) {
     const all = loadHarnessMetrics(configDir);
-    const prev = all[harnessId] ?? { avg_cost_usd: null, avg_duration_ms: null, samples: 0 };
+    const prev = all[harnessId] ?? {
+        avg_cost_usd: null,
+        avg_duration_ms: null,
+        samples: 0,
+        last_auth_mode: null,
+    };
     const ema = (old, next) => {
         if (typeof next !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(next) || next < 0)
             return old;
@@ -45,10 +63,14 @@ export function recordHarnessMetric(configDir, harnessId, sample) {
             return next;
         return old * (1 - EMA_ALPHA) + next * EMA_ALPHA;
     };
+    const isPerfSample = typeof sample.costUsd === "number" || typeof sample.durationMs === "number";
     all[harnessId] = {
         avg_cost_usd: ema(prev.avg_cost_usd, sample.costUsd),
         avg_duration_ms: ema(prev.avg_duration_ms, sample.durationMs),
-        samples: Math.min(prev.samples + 1, MAX_SAMPLES_COUNTED),
+        samples: isPerfSample ? Math.min(prev.samples + 1, MAX_SAMPLES_COUNTED) : prev.samples,
+        last_auth_mode: sample.authMode === "local_session" || sample.authMode === "api_key"
+            ? sample.authMode
+            : prev.last_auth_mode,
     };
     const path = metricsPath(configDir);
     try {

package/dist/metrics.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/observe.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"observe.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/observe.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,iBAAiB,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAKzE;;;;;;GAMG;AACH;;;;;GAKG;AACH,wBAAgB,qBAAqB,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,YAAY,GAAG,iBAAiB,EAAE,CA0C9F"}

package/dist/observe.js

@@ -15,34 +15,54 @@ const DEFAULT_COOLDOWN_MS = 5 * 60 * 1000;
  */
 export function observationsFromEvent(harnessId, ev) {
     const out = [];
+    // The credential subject rides EVERY observation (round-17 #2): a profiled
+    // run's rate-limit/quota signal belongs to that profile's account, and an
+    // unstamped observation would penalize the whole harness — profile B and
+    // the engine default included.
+    const subject = {
+        ...(ev.credential_route ? { credential_route: ev.credential_route } : {}),
+        subject_id: ev.credential_profile_id ?? null,
+    };
     if (ev.type === "usage" && typeof ev.usage?.cost_usd === "number" && ev.usage.cost_usd > 0) {
         // Token-derived costs (e.g. codex) are honest estimates -> "observed"; only
         // natively-reported costs (e.g. claude) are "exact".
         const quality = ev.usage.estimated ? "observed" : "exact";
-        out.push({ harness_id: harnessId, ts: nowIso(), quality, kind: "spend", usd: ev.usage.cost_usd });
-    }
-    if (ev.quota) {
-        // The CLI's own machine-readable window record (codex rollout
-        // token_count.rate_limits) -> "native" quality used_percent observation.
         out.push({
             harness_id: harnessId,
+            ...subject,
             ts: nowIso(),
-            quality: "native",
-            kind: "used_percent",
-            used_percent: ev.quota.used_percent,
-            resets_at: ev.quota.resets_at ?? null,
+            quality,
+            kind: "spend",
+            usd: ev.usage.cost_usd,
         });
     }
+    if (ev.quota) {
+        for (const constraint of ev.quota.constraints) {
+            out.push({
+                harness_id: harnessId,
+                ...subject,
+                ts: nowIso(),
+                quality: "native",
+                kind: "quota_constraint",
+                constraint_id: constraint.id,
+                used_ratio: constraint.used_ratio,
+                window_seconds: constraint.window_seconds,
+                resets_at: constraint.resets_at,
+                cooldown_until: constraint.cooldown_until,
+            });
+        }
+    }
     const single = singleObservationFromEvent(harnessId, ev);
     if (single)
-        out.push(single);
+        out.push({ ...single, ...subject });
     return out;
 }
 function singleObservationFromEvent(harnessId, ev) {
     if (ev.rate_limit) {
         const resets = ev.rate_limit.resets_at ?? null;
         const delay = ev.rate_limit.retry_delay_ms ?? null;
-        const cooldownUntil = resets ?? new Date(Date.now() + (typeof delay === "number" && delay > 0 ? delay : DEFAULT_COOLDOWN_MS)).toISOString();
+        const cooldownUntil = resets ??
+            new Date(Date.now() + (typeof delay === "number" && delay > 0 ? delay : DEFAULT_COOLDOWN_MS)).toISOString();
         return {
             harness_id: harnessId,
             ts: nowIso(),

package/dist/observe.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"observe.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/observe.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AACA,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,iBAAiB,CAAC;AAEzC,MAAM,mBAAmB,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;AAE1C;;;;;;GAMG;AACH;;;;;GAKG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,qBAAqB,CAAC,SAAiB,EAAE,EAAgB;IACvE,MAAM,GAAG,GAAwB,EAAE,CAAC;IACpC,2EAA2E;IAC3E,0EAA0E;IAC1E,yEAAyE;IACzE,+BAA+B;IAC/B,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG;QACd,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,gBAAgB,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,gBAAgB,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACzE,UAAU,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,qBAAqB,IAAI,IAAI;KAC7C,CAAC;IACF,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,OAAO,IAAI,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,QAAQ,KAAK,QAAQ,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,QAAQ,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QAC3F,4EAA4E;QAC5E,qDAAqD;QACrD,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC;QAC1D,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;YACP,UAAU,EAAE,SAAS;YACrB,GAAG,OAAO;YACV,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE;YACZ,OAAO;YACP,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO;YACb,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,QAAQ;SACvB,CAAC,CAAC;IACL,CAAC;IACD,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;QACb,KAAK,MAAM,UAAU,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;YAC9C,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;gBACP,UAAU,EAAE,SAAS;gBACrB,GAAG,OAAO;gBACV,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE;gBACZ,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ;gBACjB,IAAI,EAAE,kBAAkB;gBACxB,aAAa,EAAE,UAAU,CAAC,EAAE;gBAC5B,UAAU,EAAE,UAAU,CAAC,UAAU;gBACjC,cAAc,EAAE,UAAU,CAAC,cAAc;gBACzC,SAAS,EAAE,UAAU,CAAC,SAAS;gBAC/B,cAAc,EAAE,UAAU,CAAC,cAAc;aAC1C,CAAC,CAAC;QACL,CAAC;IACH,CAAC;IACD,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,0BAA0B,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IACzD,IAAI,MAAM;QAAE,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IAChD,OAAO,GAAG,CAAC;AACb,CAAC;AAED,SAAS,0BAA0B,CAAC,SAAiB,EAAE,EAAgB;IACrE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC;QAClB,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,SAAS,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC;QAC/C,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,cAAc,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC;QACnD,MAAM,aAAa,GACjB,MAAM;YACN,IAAI,IAAI,CACN,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,KAAK,KAAK,QAAQ,IAAI,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,mBAAmB,CAAC,CACpF,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;QAClB,OAAO;YACL,UAAU,EAAE,SAAS;YACrB,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE;YACZ,OAAO,EAAE,UAAU;YACnB,IAAI,EAAE,cAAc;YACpB,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM;YACjB,cAAc,EAAE,aAAa;YAC7B,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,KAAK,IAAI,SAAS;SAC9B,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;IAED,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC;AACd,CAAC"}

package/dist/router.d.ts

@@ -1,22 +1,30 @@
-import type { Portfolio, ProviderFamily } from "@claudexor/schema";
+import type { BillingKnowledge, CredentialRoute, EffortHint, Intent, PaidFallback, QualityTierSet, RoutingGoal } from "@claudexor/schema";
 import type { BudgetLedger } from "./ledger.js";
 export interface RouterCandidate {
     harnessId: string;
-    providerFamily: ProviderFamily;
     available: boolean;
-    authMode?: "local_session" | "api_key" | "unknown";
-    /** 0..1 expected quality for the target intent. */
-    qualityForIntent?: number;
-    costPerCall?: number;
-    latencyMs?: number;
+    model?: string;
+    effort?: EffortHint;
+    billingKnowledge?: BillingKnowledge;
+    incrementalCostUsd?: number | null;
+    credentialRoute?: CredentialRoute;
+    /** Effective credential subject for quota filtering (release wave round-16
+     * #2): a profile id, null for the engine default, undefined when unknown
+     * (conservative any-subject matching). Profile A's cooldown must never
+     * exclude profile B or the default on the same harness+route. */
+    credentialSubjectId?: string | null;
 }
 export interface RouteContext {
-    portfolio: Portfolio;
+    goal: RoutingGoal;
+    paidFallback: PaidFallback;
+    intent: Intent;
+    qualityTiers: QualityTierSet;
     ledger: BudgetLedger;
-    /** Provider families already used (penalized, to encourage cross-family diversity). */
-    diversityAgainst?: ProviderFamily[];
 }
-export declare function routeUtility(c: RouterCandidate, ctx: RouteContext): number;
-/** Choose the highest-utility available harness, or null if none are usable. */
+export declare class RoutingPreflightError extends Error {
+    readonly code = "routing_preflight_refused";
+}
+/** Order candidates transparently; lower tuple values win. Unknown quota remains eligible. */
+export declare function rankHarnesses(candidates: RouterCandidate[], ctx: RouteContext): RouterCandidate[];
 export declare function selectHarness(candidates: RouterCandidate[], ctx: RouteContext): RouterCandidate | null;
 //# sourceMappingURL=router.d.ts.map

package/dist/router.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/router.js

@@ -1,48 +1,56 @@
-function weights(p) {
-    switch (p) {
-        case "cheapest":
-            return { quality: 0.5, cost: 2.0, latency: 1.0, preferSubscription: 1, preferApi: 1 };
-        case "strongest":
-            return { quality: 2.0, cost: 0.2, latency: 0.5, preferSubscription: 1, preferApi: 1 };
-        case "burn":
-            return { quality: 2.0, cost: 0.0, latency: 0.2, preferSubscription: 1, preferApi: 1 };
-        case "subscription-first":
-            return { quality: 1.0, cost: 0.5, latency: 0.5, preferSubscription: 1.6, preferApi: 0.6 };
-        case "api-overflow":
-            return { quality: 1.0, cost: 0.8, latency: 0.5, preferSubscription: 0.6, preferApi: 1.6 };
-        default:
-            return { quality: 1.0, cost: 0.7, latency: 0.5, preferSubscription: 1.1, preferApi: 1.0 };
-    }
+export class RoutingPreflightError extends Error {
+    code = "routing_preflight_refused";
 }
-export function routeUtility(c, ctx) {
-    if (!c.available || ctx.ledger.cooldownActive(c.harnessId))
-        return 0;
-    const w = weights(ctx.portfolio);
-    const quality = (c.qualityForIntent ?? 0.5) ** w.quality;
-    const headroom = ctx.ledger.headroom(c.harnessId);
-    const diversity = ctx.diversityAgainst?.includes(c.providerFamily) ? 0.5 : 1;
-    const authPref = c.authMode === "local_session" ? w.preferSubscription : c.authMode === "api_key" ? w.preferApi : 1;
-    const conserve = (ctx.portfolio === "conserve-claude" && c.providerFamily === "anthropic") ||
-        (ctx.portfolio === "conserve-codex" && c.providerFamily === "openai")
-        ? 0.4
-        : 1;
-    const cost = Math.max(0.0001, c.costPerCall ?? 0.01);
-    const latency = Math.max(0.1, (c.latencyMs ?? 1000) / 1000);
-    const costFactor = cost ** w.cost;
-    const latencyFactor = latency ** w.latency;
-    return (quality * headroom * diversity * authPref * conserve) / (costFactor * latencyFactor);
+function tierIndex(candidate, ctx) {
+    const tiers = ctx.qualityTiers[ctx.intent] ?? [];
+    const index = tiers.findIndex((tier) => tier.some((route) => route.harness === candidate.harnessId &&
+        route.model === candidate.model &&
+        route.effort === candidate.effort));
+    return index < 0 ? null : index;
 }
-/** Choose the highest-utility available harness, or null if none are usable. */
-export function selectHarness(candidates, ctx) {
-    let best = null;
-    let bestU = 0;
-    for (const c of candidates) {
-        const u = routeUtility(c, ctx);
-        if (u > bestU) {
-            bestU = u;
-            best = c;
-        }
+function isIncrementalPaid(candidate) {
+    return !["proven_zero", "subscription_entitlement"].includes(candidate.billingKnowledge ?? "unknown");
+}
+function eligible(candidates, ctx) {
+    const ready = candidates.filter((candidate) => candidate.available &&
+        !ctx.ledger.cooldownActive(candidate.harnessId, candidate.credentialRoute, candidate.credentialSubjectId));
+    const free = ready.filter((candidate) => !isIncrementalPaid(candidate));
+    if (ctx.paidFallback === "never")
+        return free;
+    if (ctx.paidFallback === "when_unavailable" && free.length > 0)
+        return free;
+    return ready;
+}
+/** Order candidates transparently; lower tuple values win. Unknown quota remains eligible. */
+export function rankHarnesses(candidates, ctx) {
+    const routes = eligible(candidates, ctx);
+    if (ctx.goal === "quality" && routes.every((candidate) => tierIndex(candidate, ctx) === null)) {
+        throw new RoutingPreflightError(`quality routing requires a comparable user-declared tier for intent '${ctx.intent}'`);
     }
-    return best;
+    return routes.toSorted((a, b) => {
+        const aTier = tierIndex(a, ctx) ?? Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER;
+        const bTier = tierIndex(b, ctx) ?? Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER;
+        if (ctx.goal === "quality")
+            return aTier - bTier;
+        if (ctx.goal === "economy") {
+            const aPaid = isIncrementalPaid(a) ? 1 : 0;
+            const bPaid = isIncrementalPaid(b) ? 1 : 0;
+            const paidOrder = aPaid - bPaid;
+            if (paidOrder !== 0)
+                return paidOrder;
+            const aCost = a.incrementalCostUsd ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY;
+            const bCost = b.incrementalCostUsd ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY;
+            return aCost - bCost || aTier - bTier;
+        }
+        const aSlack = ctx.ledger.bindingPaceSlack(a.harnessId, a.credentialRoute, a.credentialSubjectId);
+        const bSlack = ctx.ledger.bindingPaceSlack(b.harnessId, b.credentialRoute, b.credentialSubjectId);
+        if (aSlack !== null || bSlack !== null) {
+            return (bSlack ?? Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY) - (aSlack ?? Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY);
+        }
+        return aTier - bTier;
+    });
+}
+export function selectHarness(candidates, ctx) {
+    return rankHarnesses(candidates, ctx)[0] ?? null;
 }
 //# sourceMappingURL=router.js.map

package/dist/router.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/package.json

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 {
   "name": "@claudexor/budget",
-  "version": "1.0.1",
+  "version": "2.1.1",
   "license": "MIT",
-  "description": "Budget governor: pre-call lease reservation, loop detection, 3-tier circuit breaker, portfolio routing, observed quota.",
+  "description": "Budget governor: pre-call leases, circuit breaker, evidence-based routing goals, and multi-window quota pacing.",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "./dist/index.js",
   "types": "./dist/index.d.ts",
@@ -16,8 +16,8 @@
     "dist"
   ],
   "dependencies": {
-    "@claudexor/schema": "1.0.1",
-    "@claudexor/util": "1.0.1"
+    "@claudexor/schema": "2.1.1",
+    "@claudexor/util": "2.1.1"
   },
   "repository": {
     "type": "git",