@cavelang/fusion 0.1.0

package/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+# @cavelang/fusion
+
+The CAVE probabilistic layer (spec §10) — pure functions over `@cavelang/core`
+claims. The math is an implementation layer, not required syntax: CAVE
+itself only stores claims and metadata.
+
+```ts
+import { fuseClaims, noisyAndIndependent } from '@cavelang/fusion'
+
+// revenue IS 18B USD/yr +/- 3B USD/yr @ 60%   (analyst)
+// revenue IS 20B USD/yr +/- 0.5B USD/yr @ 95% (filing)
+fuseClaims([analyst, filing])
+// → { mean: ≈19.97e9, sigma: ≈0.25e9 } — the filing dominates
+
+noisyAndIndependent(0.8, [0.6]) // → 0.48
+```
+
+## Bayesian fusion (§10.1)
+
+For normally distributed estimates with `+/- Δ` at kσ: σ = Δ/k, precision
+= 1/σ², confidence acts as a weight multiplier:
+
+- weighted precision wᵢ = pᵢ / σᵢ²
+- posterior mean μ = Σ wᵢxᵢ / Σ wᵢ
+- posterior σ = 1 / √(Σ wᵢ)
+
+`estimateOf(claim)` extracts `{ mean, sigma, conf }` from any numeric claim
+carrying `+/-` uncertainty (attribute or metric payload); claims without a
+usable estimate are skipped, zero-confidence and zero-σ estimates
+contribute nothing. The spec's worked example is a test case verbatim.
+
+## Conditional confidence (§10.2)
+
+`noisyAndIndependent(pClaim, pConditions)` multiplies through — named
+loudly because the spec requires the independence assumption to be
+explicit in the query engine, never silently assumed.
+
+## Competing hypotheses (§10.3)
+
+`normalizeHypotheses` rescales an exhaustive hypothesis set to sum to 1
+(preserving proportions, as in the spec's post-evidence redistribution);
+`hypothesisGap` measures how far a set is from exhaustive. Redistribution
+itself stays manual — new confidences are appended as new claims, which is
+the append-only §9 discipline, not a computation.
+
+## Tests
+
+```
+pnpm --filter @cavelang/fusion test
+```

package/dist/src/conditional.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+/**
+ * Conditional confidence — noisy-AND (spec §10.2), and competing-hypothesis
+ * helpers (spec §10.3).
+ *
+ * Treating a claim's conditions as independent:
+ *
+ *   p_effective = p_claim × Π p_conditionᵢ
+ *
+ * The independence assumption MUST be explicit in the query engine — never
+ * silently assumed for all domains (spec §10.2); hence the deliberately
+ * loud function name.
+ */
+/**
+ * Noisy-AND under an explicit independence assumption:
+ * `noisyAndIndependent(0.8, [0.6])` → 0.48 (spec §10.2's example).
+ */
+export declare const noisyAndIndependent: (claimConf: number, conditionConfs: readonly number[]) => number;
+/**
+ * Normalizes an exhaustive hypothesis set so confidences sum to 1
+ * (spec §10.3: "confidences of an exhaustive hypothesis set should sum to
+ * ~100%"). Proportions are preserved.
+ * @returns `undefined` when every confidence is 0.
+ */
+export declare const normalizeHypotheses: <T extends {
+    readonly conf: number;
+}>(hypotheses: readonly T[]) => undefined | (T & {
+    readonly conf: number;
+})[];
+/**
+ * @returns how far a hypothesis set is from exhaustive (Σ conf − 1);
+ * ≈0 for a well-formed set, negative when probability mass is missing.
+ */
+export declare const hypothesisGap: (confs: readonly number[]) => number;
+//# sourceMappingURL=conditional.d.ts.map

package/dist/src/conditional.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"conditional.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/conditional.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;GAWG;AAEH;;;GAGG;AACH,eAAO,MAAM,mBAAmB,GAAI,WAAW,MAAM,EAAE,gBAAgB,SAAS,MAAM,EAAE,KAAG,MACtB,CAAA;AAErE;;;;;GAKG;AACH,eAAO,MAAM,mBAAmB,GAAI,CAAC,SAAS;IAAE,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;CAAE,EACrE,YAAY,SAAS,CAAC,EAAE,KACvB,SAAS,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG;IAAE,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;CAAE,CAAC,EAM7C,CAAA;AAED;;;GAGG;AACH,eAAO,MAAM,aAAa,GAAI,OAAO,SAAS,MAAM,EAAE,KAAG,MACT,CAAA"}

package/dist/src/conditional.js

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+/**
+ * Conditional confidence — noisy-AND (spec §10.2), and competing-hypothesis
+ * helpers (spec §10.3).
+ *
+ * Treating a claim's conditions as independent:
+ *
+ *   p_effective = p_claim × Π p_conditionᵢ
+ *
+ * The independence assumption MUST be explicit in the query engine — never
+ * silently assumed for all domains (spec §10.2); hence the deliberately
+ * loud function name.
+ */
+/**
+ * Noisy-AND under an explicit independence assumption:
+ * `noisyAndIndependent(0.8, [0.6])` → 0.48 (spec §10.2's example).
+ */
+export const noisyAndIndependent = (claimConf, conditionConfs) => conditionConfs.reduce((product, conf) => product * conf, claimConf);
+/**
+ * Normalizes an exhaustive hypothesis set so confidences sum to 1
+ * (spec §10.3: "confidences of an exhaustive hypothesis set should sum to
+ * ~100%"). Proportions are preserved.
+ * @returns `undefined` when every confidence is 0.
+ */
+export const normalizeHypotheses = (hypotheses) => {
+    const total = hypotheses.reduce((sum, hypothesis) => sum + hypothesis.conf, 0);
+    if (!(total > 0)) {
+        return undefined;
+    }
+    return hypotheses.map(hypothesis => ({ ...hypothesis, conf: hypothesis.conf / total }));
+};
+/**
+ * @returns how far a hypothesis set is from exhaustive (Σ conf − 1);
+ * ≈0 for a well-formed set, negative when probability mass is missing.
+ */
+export const hypothesisGap = (confs) => confs.reduce((sum, conf) => sum + conf, 0) - 1;
+//# sourceMappingURL=conditional.js.map

package/dist/src/conditional.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"conditional.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/conditional.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;GAWG;AAEH;;;GAGG;AACH,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,mBAAmB,GAAG,CAAC,SAAiB,EAAE,cAAiC,EAAU,EAAE,CAClG,cAAc,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,OAAO,GAAG,IAAI,EAAE,SAAS,CAAC,CAAA;AAErE;;;;;GAKG;AACH,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,mBAAmB,GAAG,CACjC,UAAwB,EACuB,EAAE;IACjD,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,UAAU,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,UAAU,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAA;IAC9E,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACjB,OAAO,SAAS,CAAA;IAClB,CAAC;IACD,OAAO,UAAU,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,UAAU,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,UAAU,CAAC,IAAI,GAAG,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAA;AACzF,CAAC,CAAA;AAED;;;GAGG;AACH,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,aAAa,GAAG,CAAC,KAAwB,EAAU,EAAE,CAChE,KAAK,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAA"}

package/dist/src/fuse.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+/**
+ * Bayesian fusion of numeric estimates (spec §10.1).
+ *
+ * Given independent, normally distributed estimates of the same quantity —
+ * each with a mean, a σ, and an epistemic confidence acting as a weight
+ * multiplier — the posterior is precision-weighted:
+ *
+ * - weighted precision: wᵢ = pᵢ / σᵢ²
+ * - posterior mean:     μ = Σ wᵢxᵢ / Σ wᵢ
+ * - posterior σ:        1 / √(Σ wᵢ)
+ *
+ * The math is an implementation layer, not required syntax (spec §10) —
+ * CAVE itself only stores claims and metadata.
+ */
+import { Claim } from '@cavelang/core';
+/** One numeric estimate: mean, σ, and confidence weight p ∈ (0, 1]. */
+export type Estimate = {
+    readonly mean: number;
+    readonly sigma: number;
+    /** Epistemic confidence used as a precision multiplier (default 1). */
+    readonly conf?: number;
+};
+export type Posterior = {
+    readonly mean: number;
+    readonly sigma: number;
+    /** Total weighted precision Σ wᵢ. */
+    readonly precision: number;
+};
+/**
+ * Fuses estimates into a posterior. Estimates with `conf` 0 or a
+ * non-positive σ contribute nothing and are skipped.
+ * @returns `undefined` when no estimate carries usable weight.
+ */
+export declare const fuse: (estimates: readonly Estimate[]) => undefined | Posterior;
+/**
+ * @returns the estimate a claim carries, when it is numeric with `+/-`
+ * uncertainty: mean from the payload value, σ = Δ / k (spec §7.2),
+ * confidence from `@ N%`. `undefined` otherwise.
+ */
+export declare const estimateOf: (claim: Claim.t) => undefined | Estimate;
+/**
+ * Fuses the numeric estimates found in `claims` (spec §10.1's worked
+ * example lives in the tests). Claims without usable numeric uncertainty
+ * are ignored.
+ */
+export declare const fuseClaims: (claims: readonly Claim.t[]) => undefined | Posterior;
+//# sourceMappingURL=fuse.d.ts.map

package/dist/src/fuse.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"fuse.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/fuse.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAaG;AAEH,OAAO,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,gBAAgB,CAAA;AAEtC,uEAAuE;AACvE,MAAM,MAAM,QAAQ,GAAG;IACrB,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;IACrB,QAAQ,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;IACtB,uEAAuE;IACvE,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;CACvB,CAAA;AAED,MAAM,MAAM,SAAS,GAAG;IACtB,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;IACrB,QAAQ,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;IACtB,qCAAqC;IACrC,QAAQ,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;CAC3B,CAAA;AAED;;;;GAIG;AACH,eAAO,MAAM,IAAI,GAAI,WAAW,SAAS,QAAQ,EAAE,KAAG,SAAS,GAAG,SAoBjE,CAAA;AAED;;;;GAIG;AACH,eAAO,MAAM,UAAU,GAAI,OAAO,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,KAAG,SAAS,GAAG,QAcvD,CAAA;AAED;;;;GAIG;AACH,eAAO,MAAM,UAAU,GAAI,QAAQ,SAAS,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,KAAG,SAAS,GAAG,SAI/D,CAAA"}

package/dist/src/fuse.js

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+/**
+ * Bayesian fusion of numeric estimates (spec §10.1).
+ *
+ * Given independent, normally distributed estimates of the same quantity —
+ * each with a mean, a σ, and an epistemic confidence acting as a weight
+ * multiplier — the posterior is precision-weighted:
+ *
+ * - weighted precision: wᵢ = pᵢ / σᵢ²
+ * - posterior mean:     μ = Σ wᵢxᵢ / Σ wᵢ
+ * - posterior σ:        1 / √(Σ wᵢ)
+ *
+ * The math is an implementation layer, not required syntax (spec §10) —
+ * CAVE itself only stores claims and metadata.
+ */
+import { Claim } from '@cavelang/core';
+/**
+ * Fuses estimates into a posterior. Estimates with `conf` 0 or a
+ * non-positive σ contribute nothing and are skipped.
+ * @returns `undefined` when no estimate carries usable weight.
+ */
+export const fuse = (estimates) => {
+    let totalWeight = 0;
+    let weightedSum = 0;
+    for (const estimate of estimates) {
+        const conf = estimate.conf ?? 1;
+        if (!(estimate.sigma > 0) || !(conf > 0)) {
+            continue;
+        }
+        const weight = conf / (estimate.sigma * estimate.sigma);
+        totalWeight += weight;
+        weightedSum += weight * estimate.mean;
+    }
+    if (totalWeight === 0) {
+        return undefined;
+    }
+    return {
+        mean: weightedSum / totalWeight,
+        sigma: 1 / Math.sqrt(totalWeight),
+        precision: totalWeight
+    };
+};
+/**
+ * @returns the estimate a claim carries, when it is numeric with `+/-`
+ * uncertainty: mean from the payload value, σ = Δ / k (spec §7.2),
+ * confidence from `@ N%`. `undefined` otherwise.
+ */
+export const estimateOf = (claim) => {
+    const payload = claim.payload;
+    const value = payload.kind === 'attribute' ? payload.value :
+        payload.kind === 'metric' ? payload.value :
+            undefined;
+    if (value?.num === undefined) {
+        return undefined;
+    }
+    const sigma = Claim.sigmaOf(claim);
+    if (sigma === undefined || !(sigma > 0)) {
+        return undefined;
+    }
+    return { mean: value.num, sigma, conf: claim.conf };
+};
+/**
+ * Fuses the numeric estimates found in `claims` (spec §10.1's worked
+ * example lives in the tests). Claims without usable numeric uncertainty
+ * are ignored.
+ */
+export const fuseClaims = (claims) => fuse(claims.flatMap(claim => {
+    const estimate = estimateOf(claim);
+    return estimate === undefined ? [] : [estimate];
+}));
+//# sourceMappingURL=fuse.js.map

package/dist/src/fuse.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"fuse.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/fuse.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAaG;AAEH,OAAO,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,gBAAgB,CAAA;AAiBtC;;;;GAIG;AACH,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,SAA8B,EAAyB,EAAE;IAC5E,IAAI,WAAW,GAAG,CAAC,CAAA;IACnB,IAAI,WAAW,GAAG,CAAC,CAAA;IACnB,KAAK,MAAM,QAAQ,IAAI,SAAS,EAAE,CAAC;QACjC,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,CAAA;QAC/B,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;YACzC,SAAQ;QACV,CAAC;QACD,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAA;QACvD,WAAW,IAAI,MAAM,CAAA;QACrB,WAAW,IAAI,MAAM,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAI,CAAA;IACvC,CAAC;IACD,IAAI,WAAW,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACtB,OAAO,SAAS,CAAA;IAClB,CAAC;IACD,OAAO;QACL,IAAI,EAAE,WAAW,GAAG,WAAW;QAC/B,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC;QACjC,SAAS,EAAE,WAAW;KACvB,CAAA;AACH,CAAC,CAAA;AAED;;;;GAIG;AACH,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,CAAC,KAAc,EAAwB,EAAE;IACjE,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,OAAO,CAAA;IAC7B,MAAM,KAAK,GACT,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;QAC9C,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;YAC3C,SAAS,CAAA;IACX,IAAI,KAAK,EAAE,GAAG,KAAK,SAAS,EAAE,CAAC;QAC7B,OAAO,SAAS,CAAA;IAClB,CAAC;IACD,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAA;IAClC,IAAI,KAAK,KAAK,SAAS,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACxC,OAAO,SAAS,CAAA;IAClB,CAAC;IACD,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,CAAA;AACrD,CAAC,CAAA;AAED;;;;GAIG;AACH,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,CAAC,MAA0B,EAAyB,EAAE,CAC9E,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE;IAC1B,MAAM,QAAQ,GAAG,UAAU,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAA;IAClC,OAAO,QAAQ,KAAK,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAA;AACjD,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAA"}

package/dist/src/index.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+/**
+ * `@cavelang/fusion` — the CAVE probabilistic layer (spec §10).
+ *
+ * Pure functions over `@cavelang/core` claims: Bayesian fusion of numeric
+ * estimates (§10.1), noisy-AND conditional confidence under an explicit
+ * independence assumption (§10.2), and competing-hypothesis helpers
+ * (§10.3). No storage, no I/O.
+ */
+export { fuse, fuseClaims, estimateOf } from './fuse.ts';
+export type { Estimate, Posterior } from './fuse.ts';
+export { noisyAndIndependent, normalizeHypotheses, hypothesisGap } from './conditional.ts';
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.d.ts.map

package/dist/src/index.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"index.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/index.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;GAOG;AAEH,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,WAAW,CAAA;AACxD,YAAY,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,WAAW,CAAA;AACpD,OAAO,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,kBAAkB,CAAA"}

package/dist/src/index.js

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+/**
+ * `@cavelang/fusion` — the CAVE probabilistic layer (spec §10).
+ *
+ * Pure functions over `@cavelang/core` claims: Bayesian fusion of numeric
+ * estimates (§10.1), noisy-AND conditional confidence under an explicit
+ * independence assumption (§10.2), and competing-hypothesis helpers
+ * (§10.3). No storage, no I/O.
+ */
+export { fuse, fuseClaims, estimateOf } from "./fuse.js";
+export { noisyAndIndependent, normalizeHypotheses, hypothesisGap } from "./conditional.js";
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/src/index.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"index.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/index.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;GAOG;AAEH,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,WAAW,CAAA;AAExD,OAAO,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,kBAAkB,CAAA"}

package/package.json

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+{
+  "name": "@cavelang/fusion",
+  "version": "0.1.0",
+  "type": "module",
+  "description": "CAVE probabilistic layer — Bayesian fusion of numeric estimates, noisy-AND conditional confidence, hypothesis helpers.",
+  "license": "CC0-1.0",
+  "author": "Mirek Rusin (https://github.com/mirek)",
+  "repository": {
+    "type": "git",
+    "url": "git+https://github.com/mirek/cave.git",
+    "directory": "packages/fusion"
+  },
+  "engines": {
+    "node": ">=22.18"
+  },
+  "exports": {
+    ".": {
+      "types": "./dist/src/index.d.ts",
+      "default": "./dist/src/index.js"
+    }
+  },
+  "files": [
+    "dist",
+    "!dist/test",
+    "!dist/tsconfig.tsbuildinfo",
+    "src",
+    "!src/**/*.test.ts",
+    "README.md",
+    "License.md"
+  ],
+  "publishConfig": {
+    "access": "public"
+  },
+  "dependencies": {
+    "@cavelang/core": "0.1.0"
+  },
+  "scripts": {
+    "build": "tsc -b",
+    "test": "node --disable-warning=ExperimentalWarning --test 'test/*.test.ts'",
+    "typecheck": "tsc -b"
+  }
+}

package/src/conditional.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+/**
+ * Conditional confidence — noisy-AND (spec §10.2), and competing-hypothesis
+ * helpers (spec §10.3).
+ *
+ * Treating a claim's conditions as independent:
+ *
+ *   p_effective = p_claim × Π p_conditionᵢ
+ *
+ * The independence assumption MUST be explicit in the query engine — never
+ * silently assumed for all domains (spec §10.2); hence the deliberately
+ * loud function name.
+ */
+
+/**
+ * Noisy-AND under an explicit independence assumption:
+ * `noisyAndIndependent(0.8, [0.6])` → 0.48 (spec §10.2's example).
+ */
+export const noisyAndIndependent = (claimConf: number, conditionConfs: readonly number[]): number =>
+  conditionConfs.reduce((product, conf) => product * conf, claimConf)
+
+/**
+ * Normalizes an exhaustive hypothesis set so confidences sum to 1
+ * (spec §10.3: "confidences of an exhaustive hypothesis set should sum to
+ * ~100%"). Proportions are preserved.
+ * @returns `undefined` when every confidence is 0.
+ */
+export const normalizeHypotheses = <T extends { readonly conf: number }>(
+  hypotheses: readonly T[]
+): undefined | (T & { readonly conf: number })[] => {
+  const total = hypotheses.reduce((sum, hypothesis) => sum + hypothesis.conf, 0)
+  if (!(total > 0)) {
+    return undefined
+  }
+  return hypotheses.map(hypothesis => ({ ...hypothesis, conf: hypothesis.conf / total }))
+}
+
+/**
+ * @returns how far a hypothesis set is from exhaustive (Σ conf − 1);
+ * ≈0 for a well-formed set, negative when probability mass is missing.
+ */
+export const hypothesisGap = (confs: readonly number[]): number =>
+  confs.reduce((sum, conf) => sum + conf, 0) - 1

package/src/fuse.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
+/**
+ * Bayesian fusion of numeric estimates (spec §10.1).
+ *
+ * Given independent, normally distributed estimates of the same quantity —
+ * each with a mean, a σ, and an epistemic confidence acting as a weight
+ * multiplier — the posterior is precision-weighted:
+ *
+ * - weighted precision: wᵢ = pᵢ / σᵢ²
+ * - posterior mean:     μ = Σ wᵢxᵢ / Σ wᵢ
+ * - posterior σ:        1 / √(Σ wᵢ)
+ *
+ * The math is an implementation layer, not required syntax (spec §10) —
+ * CAVE itself only stores claims and metadata.
+ */
+
+import { Claim } from '@cavelang/core'
+
+/** One numeric estimate: mean, σ, and confidence weight p ∈ (0, 1]. */
+export type Estimate = {
+  readonly mean: number
+  readonly sigma: number
+  /** Epistemic confidence used as a precision multiplier (default 1). */
+  readonly conf?: number
+}
+
+export type Posterior = {
+  readonly mean: number
+  readonly sigma: number
+  /** Total weighted precision Σ wᵢ. */
+  readonly precision: number
+}
+
+/**
+ * Fuses estimates into a posterior. Estimates with `conf` 0 or a
+ * non-positive σ contribute nothing and are skipped.
+ * @returns `undefined` when no estimate carries usable weight.
+ */
+export const fuse = (estimates: readonly Estimate[]): undefined | Posterior => {
+  let totalWeight = 0
+  let weightedSum = 0
+  for (const estimate of estimates) {
+    const conf = estimate.conf ?? 1
+    if (!(estimate.sigma > 0) || !(conf > 0)) {
+      continue
+    }
+    const weight = conf / (estimate.sigma * estimate.sigma)
+    totalWeight += weight
+    weightedSum += weight * estimate.mean
+  }
+  if (totalWeight === 0) {
+    return undefined
+  }
+  return {
+    mean: weightedSum / totalWeight,
+    sigma: 1 / Math.sqrt(totalWeight),
+    precision: totalWeight
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * @returns the estimate a claim carries, when it is numeric with `+/-`
+ * uncertainty: mean from the payload value, σ = Δ / k (spec §7.2),
+ * confidence from `@ N%`. `undefined` otherwise.
+ */
+export const estimateOf = (claim: Claim.t): undefined | Estimate => {
+  const payload = claim.payload
+  const value =
+    payload.kind === 'attribute' ? payload.value :
+    payload.kind === 'metric' ? payload.value :
+    undefined
+  if (value?.num === undefined) {
+    return undefined
+  }
+  const sigma = Claim.sigmaOf(claim)
+  if (sigma === undefined || !(sigma > 0)) {
+    return undefined
+  }
+  return { mean: value.num, sigma, conf: claim.conf }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Fuses the numeric estimates found in `claims` (spec §10.1's worked
+ * example lives in the tests). Claims without usable numeric uncertainty
+ * are ignored.
+ */
+export const fuseClaims = (claims: readonly Claim.t[]): undefined | Posterior =>
+  fuse(claims.flatMap(claim => {
+    const estimate = estimateOf(claim)
+    return estimate === undefined ? [] : [estimate]
+  }))

package/src/index.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+/**
+ * `@cavelang/fusion` — the CAVE probabilistic layer (spec §10).
+ *
+ * Pure functions over `@cavelang/core` claims: Bayesian fusion of numeric
+ * estimates (§10.1), noisy-AND conditional confidence under an explicit
+ * independence assumption (§10.2), and competing-hypothesis helpers
+ * (§10.3). No storage, no I/O.
+ */
+
+export { fuse, fuseClaims, estimateOf } from './fuse.ts'
+export type { Estimate, Posterior } from './fuse.ts'
+export { noisyAndIndependent, normalizeHypotheses, hypothesisGap } from './conditional.ts'