@cat-factory/spend 0.14.15 → 0.15.1

package/dist/SpendService.d.ts

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ import type { BudgetCaps, OpenRouterModelMeta, SpendStatus } from '@cat-factory/
 import type { AgentTokenUsage } from '@cat-factory/kernel';
 import type { Clock, IdGenerator } from '@cat-factory/kernel';
 import type { AccountRepository, BudgetLimitCacheValue, GroupCacheHandle, TokenUsageRepository, UsageBilling, UsageBreakdownRow, UserSettingsRepository, WorkspaceSettingsCacheValue, WorkspaceSettingsRepository } from '@cat-factory/kernel';
+import { type SpendAlertState, type SpendForecast } from './forecast.logic.js';
 import { type InputTokenClassUsage, type SpendPricing } from './pricing.js';
 export interface SpendServiceDependencies {
     tokenUsageRepository: TokenUsageRepository;
@@ -86,6 +87,25 @@ export interface RecordUsageInput {
     /** The subscription vendor for a `'subscription'` row (claude/codex/glm/kimi/deepseek). */
     vendor?: string | null;
 }
+/**
+ * One scope's forward-looking spend position: where it stands, where it is heading, and which
+ * alert state that puts it in. Returned by {@link SpendService.forecastWorkspaces} /
+ * {@link SpendService.forecastAccounts}.
+ *
+ * `costLimit` and `currency` travel WITH the figures, never resolved again by a consumer: a
+ * workspace can override both, so a caller pairing an amount with the deployment's currency (or
+ * with another tier's limit) would put a wrong label on a right number.
+ */
+export interface ScopedSpendForecast {
+    /** Metered spend so far this period, in `currency`. */
+    costSpent: number;
+    /** The scope's effective limit for the period, in `currency`. */
+    costLimit: number;
+    /** ISO 4217 currency both amounts are expressed in. */
+    currency: string;
+    forecast: SpendForecast;
+    alert: SpendAlertState;
+}
 /** Which budget tiers to check when gating a run (the caller passes what ids it has). */
 export interface BudgetTierScope {
     accountId?: string | null;
@@ -128,6 +148,20 @@ export declare class SpendService {
      * next call). Falls back to the base table when no settings repository is wired.
      */
     private resolvePricing;
+    /**
+     * The same for MANY workspaces, as ONE batched settings read.
+     *
+     * Deliberately not `resolvePricing` in a loop: that is a point read per workspace, which is the
+     * banned N+1 the moment a caller holds a list, and the alert sweep holds every spending
+     * workspace in the deployment. The shared cache is bypassed rather than consulted per id
+     * because it would not help and would hurt: the isolate-safe (Worker) profile disables the
+     * `workspaceSettings` slice outright, so every lookup there is a real D1 round trip, and on Node
+     * a sweep touching every tenant would churn a cache sized for the hot single-workspace gate.
+     *
+     * Every requested id is present in the result; a workspace with no persisted overrides maps to
+     * the base table, exactly as the single-workspace read resolves it.
+     */
+    private resolvePricingMany;
     /**
      * Invalidate a cached account effective limit (called after an account-budget edit, via
      * `AccountService`'s budget-change callback). A no-op when no cache is wired.
@@ -144,6 +178,12 @@ export declare class SpendService {
      * limit is read through the shared `accountBudgetLimit` cache slice.
      */
     private resolveAccountLimit;
+    /**
+     * The same for MANY accounts, as ONE batched account read (see {@link resolvePricingMany} for
+     * why the per-id cache is bypassed rather than consulted). Every requested id is present:
+     * an account with no configured limit resolves to the env cap alone, `Infinity` when unset.
+     */
+    private resolveAccountLimits;
     /** The user tier's effective monthly limit (configured user limit clamped by the env cap). */
     private resolveUserLimit;
     /** Meter and persist one LLM call; returns its estimated cost. */
@@ -194,6 +234,23 @@ export declare class SpendService {
     userStatus(userId: string, preloaded?: {
         configuredLimit: number | null;
     }): Promise<SpendStatus | null>;
+    /**
+     * The forward-looking position of many WORKSPACES at once: burn rate, projected period
+     * total, and the alert state each is in. Advisory only: nothing here can pause a run.
+     *
+     * Batched because the alert sweep asks about every workspace in the deployment on every
+     * pass: two grouped ledger reads (period-to-date and the trailing burn-rate window) plus one
+     * batched settings read serve the whole set, where a per-workspace point read would be the
+     * banned N+1 run every few minutes across every tenant. Workspaces with no metered spend this
+     * period are absent from the result: they have nothing to forecast, and skipping them is what
+     * keeps a deployment full of quiet boards cheap to sweep. Their pricing is never resolved
+     * either, which is why the settings read follows the ledger reads instead of joining them.
+     */
+    forecastWorkspaces(workspaceIds: string[], now: number): Promise<Map<string, ScopedSpendForecast>>;
+    /** The same for the ACCOUNT tier, priced in the base currency (an account spans workspaces). */
+    forecastAccounts(accountIds: string[], now: number): Promise<Map<string, ScopedSpendForecast>>;
+    /** Assemble one scope's forecast + alert state from the reads above (pure beyond this point). */
+    private buildForecast;
     /** The operator hard ceilings on the account/user tiers, for the SPA budget screens. */
     budgetCaps(): BudgetCaps;
     /**

package/dist/SpendService.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/SpendService.js

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import { readCachedWorkspaceSettings } from '@cat-factory/kernel';
-import { effectiveTierLimit, estimateClassedCost, estimateCost, mergeSpendPricing, startOfMonthUtc, withDynamicPrices, } from './pricing.js';
+import { BURN_RATE_WINDOW_MS, forecastSpend, spendAlertState, } from './forecast.logic.js';
+import { effectiveTierLimit, estimateClassedCost, estimateCost, mergeSpendPricing, startOfMonthUtc, startOfNextMonthUtc, withDynamicPrices, } from './pricing.js';
 /**
  * The spend safeguard. It meters token usage into a persistent ledger, prices
  * each call into a single currency, and reports the current billing period's
@@ -59,6 +60,33 @@ export class SpendService {
         const settings = await readCachedWorkspaceSettings(this.workspaceSettingsCache, this.workspaceSettingsRepository, workspaceId);
         return mergeSpendPricing(this.pricing, settings);
     }
+    /**
+     * The same for MANY workspaces, as ONE batched settings read.
+     *
+     * Deliberately not `resolvePricing` in a loop: that is a point read per workspace, which is the
+     * banned N+1 the moment a caller holds a list, and the alert sweep holds every spending
+     * workspace in the deployment. The shared cache is bypassed rather than consulted per id
+     * because it would not help and would hurt: the isolate-safe (Worker) profile disables the
+     * `workspaceSettings` slice outright, so every lookup there is a real D1 round trip, and on Node
+     * a sweep touching every tenant would churn a cache sized for the hot single-workspace gate.
+     *
+     * Every requested id is present in the result; a workspace with no persisted overrides maps to
+     * the base table, exactly as the single-workspace read resolves it.
+     */
+    async resolvePricingMany(workspaceIds) {
+        const out = new Map();
+        const repository = this.workspaceSettingsRepository;
+        if (!repository) {
+            for (const id of workspaceIds)
+                out.set(id, this.pricing);
+            return out;
+        }
+        const settings = await repository.listByWorkspaceIds(workspaceIds);
+        for (const id of workspaceIds) {
+            out.set(id, mergeSpendPricing(this.pricing, settings.get(id) ?? null));
+        }
+        return out;
+    }
     /**
      * Invalidate a cached account effective limit (called after an account-budget edit, via
      * `AccountService`'s budget-change callback). A no-op when no cache is wired.
@@ -91,6 +119,25 @@ export class SpendService {
             : await load();
         return effectiveTierLimit(limit, cap);
     }
+    /**
+     * The same for MANY accounts, as ONE batched account read (see {@link resolvePricingMany} for
+     * why the per-id cache is bypassed rather than consulted). Every requested id is present:
+     * an account with no configured limit resolves to the env cap alone, `Infinity` when unset.
+     */
+    async resolveAccountLimits(accountIds) {
+        const cap = this.pricing.accountMonthlyLimitCap;
+        const out = new Map();
+        const repository = this.accountRepository;
+        if (!repository) {
+            for (const id of accountIds)
+                out.set(id, effectiveTierLimit(null, cap));
+            return out;
+        }
+        const configured = new Map((await repository.listByIds(accountIds)).map((a) => [a.id, a.spendMonthlyLimit ?? null]));
+        for (const id of accountIds)
+            out.set(id, effectiveTierLimit(configured.get(id) ?? null, cap));
+        return out;
+    }
     /** The user tier's effective monthly limit (configured user limit clamped by the env cap). */
     async resolveUserLimit(userId) {
         const cap = this.pricing.userMonthlyLimitCap;
@@ -250,6 +297,89 @@ export class SpendService {
             exceeded: totals.costEstimate >= limit,
         };
     }
+    /**
+     * The forward-looking position of many WORKSPACES at once: burn rate, projected period
+     * total, and the alert state each is in. Advisory only: nothing here can pause a run.
+     *
+     * Batched because the alert sweep asks about every workspace in the deployment on every
+     * pass: two grouped ledger reads (period-to-date and the trailing burn-rate window) plus one
+     * batched settings read serve the whole set, where a per-workspace point read would be the
+     * banned N+1 run every few minutes across every tenant. Workspaces with no metered spend this
+     * period are absent from the result: they have nothing to forecast, and skipping them is what
+     * keeps a deployment full of quiet boards cheap to sweep. Their pricing is never resolved
+     * either, which is why the settings read follows the ledger reads instead of joining them.
+     */
+    async forecastWorkspaces(workspaceIds, now) {
+        const periodStart = startOfMonthUtc(now);
+        const windowStart = now - BURN_RATE_WINDOW_MS;
+        const [period, window] = await Promise.all([
+            this.tokenUsageRepository.meteredSpendByWorkspaceSince(workspaceIds, periodStart),
+            this.tokenUsageRepository.meteredSpendByWorkspaceSince(workspaceIds, windowStart),
+        ]);
+        const pricingByWorkspace = await this.resolvePricingMany([...period.keys()]);
+        const out = new Map();
+        for (const [workspaceId, spent] of period) {
+            const pricing = pricingByWorkspace.get(workspaceId) ?? this.pricing;
+            out.set(workspaceId, this.buildForecast({
+                costSpent: spent.costEstimate,
+                costLimit: pricing.monthlyLimit,
+                currency: pricing.currency,
+                window: window.get(workspaceId),
+                windowStart,
+                periodStart,
+                now,
+            }));
+        }
+        return out;
+    }
+    /** The same for the ACCOUNT tier, priced in the base currency (an account spans workspaces). */
+    async forecastAccounts(accountIds, now) {
+        const periodStart = startOfMonthUtc(now);
+        const windowStart = now - BURN_RATE_WINDOW_MS;
+        const [period, window] = await Promise.all([
+            this.tokenUsageRepository.meteredSpendByAccountSince(accountIds, periodStart),
+            this.tokenUsageRepository.meteredSpendByAccountSince(accountIds, windowStart),
+        ]);
+        const limitByAccount = await this.resolveAccountLimits([...period.keys()]);
+        const out = new Map();
+        for (const [accountId, spent] of period) {
+            const costLimit = limitByAccount.get(accountId) ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY;
+            // An inactive tier (no configured limit, no operator cap) is skipped outright rather
+            // than forecast against `Infinity`: there is no ceiling to warn about approaching.
+            if (!Number.isFinite(costLimit))
+                continue;
+            out.set(accountId, this.buildForecast({
+                costSpent: spent.costEstimate,
+                costLimit,
+                currency: this.pricing.currency,
+                window: window.get(accountId),
+                windowStart,
+                periodStart,
+                now,
+            }));
+        }
+        return out;
+    }
+    /** Assemble one scope's forecast + alert state from the reads above (pure beyond this point). */
+    buildForecast(input) {
+        const forecast = forecastSpend({
+            costSpent: input.costSpent,
+            costLimit: input.costLimit,
+            windowCost: input.window?.costEstimate ?? 0,
+            windowFirstSeenAt: input.window?.firstSeenAt ?? null,
+            windowStart: input.windowStart,
+            periodStart: input.periodStart,
+            periodEnd: startOfNextMonthUtc(input.periodStart),
+            now: input.now,
+        });
+        return {
+            costSpent: input.costSpent,
+            costLimit: input.costLimit,
+            currency: input.currency,
+            forecast,
+            alert: spendAlertState(forecast, input.periodStart, input.costLimit),
+        };
+    }
     /** The operator hard ceilings on the account/user tiers, for the SPA budget screens. */
     budgetCaps() {
         return {

package/dist/SpendService.js.map

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package/dist/forecast.logic.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
+/**
+ * The trailing span the burn rate is measured over. A week smooths the working-week shape
+ * (a team that runs pipelines Monday to Friday would project wildly off a Sunday sample)
+ * while still reacting within a day or two to a genuine change of pace.
+ *
+ * Deliberately NOT the period-to-date average: on the 28th, a month-to-date rate is
+ * dominated by spend from three weeks ago and barely moves when a runaway starts today,
+ * which is the one moment the forecast has to earn its keep.
+ */
+export declare const BURN_RATE_WINDOW_MS: number;
+/**
+ * The shortest observed span a burn rate may be derived from. Under it the rate is an
+ * artefact of when the sample happened to start: a workspace that spent 20 EUR in its first
+ * ten minutes is not spending 2,880 EUR/day, and saying so would train people to ignore the
+ * alert. Below this the forecast reports `insufficient-history` and withholds the
+ * projection rather than publishing a number it cannot stand behind.
+ */
+export declare const MIN_OBSERVED_SPAN_MS: number;
+/**
+ * The default fraction of the limit at which a proactive alert fires. Configurable
+ * thresholds beside the budget limits are a later slice of the forecasting initiative; until
+ * then every deployment alerts at the same 80%.
+ */
+export declare const DEFAULT_SPEND_ALERT_THRESHOLDS: readonly number[];
+/**
+ * Whether the projection is worth publishing.
+ *
+ * `insufficient-history` is a REAL state, not a zero: it says the ledger has not been
+ * observed long enough for a rate to mean anything, which is a different fact from "this
+ * scope is not spending". Rendering the two the same is how a brand-new runaway ends up
+ * looking calm.
+ */
+export type SpendForecastConfidence = 'ok' | 'insufficient-history';
+/** What {@link forecastSpend} needs. Every field is a fact the caller already read or holds. */
+export interface SpendForecastInput {
+    /** Metered spend so far in the current period, in the scope's currency. */
+    costSpent: number;
+    /** The scope's effective limit for the period. `Infinity` ⇒ the tier is inactive. */
+    costLimit: number;
+    /** Metered spend over the trailing window, in the same currency. */
+    windowCost: number;
+    /**
+     * Epoch ms of the OLDEST metered row inside the trailing window, or null when the window
+     * holds none. It is what makes the rate honest for a scope younger than the window: without
+     * it, a workspace that started spending two hours ago is divided by seven days and reads as
+     * 1/84th of its real pace, understating exactly the case the alert exists for.
+     */
+    windowFirstSeenAt: number | null;
+    /** Start of the trailing window (epoch ms), i.e. `now - BURN_RATE_WINDOW_MS` by default. */
+    windowStart: number;
+    /** Start of the current billing period (epoch ms, UTC month start). */
+    periodStart: number;
+    /** End of the current billing period, exclusive (epoch ms): the next month start. */
+    periodEnd: number;
+    /** The observation time (epoch ms). */
+    now: number;
+}
+/** The forward-looking half of a scope's spend position. */
+export interface SpendForecast {
+    /**
+     * Metered spend per day over the trailing window, divided by the span actually OBSERVED
+     * rather than the nominal window (see {@link SpendForecastInput.windowFirstSeenAt}). Zero
+     * when nothing was spent in the window.
+     */
+    burnRatePerDay: number;
+    /**
+     * Projected spend for the whole period: what is already spent plus the burn rate applied to
+     * the period's remaining days. Null when {@link SpendForecast.confidence} is not `ok`: an
+     * unpublishable projection is ABSENT, never a plausible-looking number.
+     */
+    projectedTotal: number | null;
+    /**
+     * Epoch ms the projection expects the limit to be reached, or null when it is not expected
+     * within this period (including when the limit is already reached, which is the reactive
+     * safeguard's business, not the forecast's).
+     */
+    projectedExhaustionAt: number | null;
+    /** `costSpent / costLimit`, or 0 for an inactive (`Infinity`-limit) tier. */
+    consumedFraction: number;
+    confidence: SpendForecastConfidence;
+}
+/**
+ * The forward-looking position of one scope. Pure: the same inputs always produce the same
+ * forecast, which is what lets the sweep and the UI agree without sharing state.
+ */
+export declare function forecastSpend(input: SpendForecastInput): SpendForecast;
+/**
+ * The alert position of a scope in one period: the highest threshold its ACTUAL spend has
+ * crossed, and whether its PROJECTION overruns the limit.
+ *
+ * This is the card's dedup identity, which is why it holds only state and no live figures.
+ * A payload carrying the current burn rate would differ on every sweep, and the notification
+ * service re-delivers a card whose content changed, so the very field that made the alert
+ * informative would re-toast the inbox every few minutes for the rest of the month.
+ */
+export interface SpendAlertState {
+    /** The period the state belongs to; a rollover re-arms every signal below. */
+    periodStart: number;
+    /** The highest crossed threshold as a fraction (e.g. `0.8`), or null when none is crossed. */
+    threshold: number | null;
+    /** Whether the projection exceeds the limit while actual spend has not yet reached it. */
+    projectedOverrun: boolean;
+}
+/**
+ * The alert state implied by a forecast. `thresholds` are fractions of the limit; an empty
+ * list (or an inactive tier) yields a state that fires nothing.
+ *
+ * `projectedOverrun` is deliberately suppressed once the limit is ALREADY reached: at that
+ * point the projection is no longer a warning about the future, and the reactive safeguard
+ * owns the message. It is likewise suppressed when the projection is unpublishable, because
+ * "we cannot forecast this yet" must not be reported as "you are fine".
+ */
+export declare function spendAlertState(forecast: SpendForecast, periodStart: number, costLimit: number, thresholds?: readonly number[]): SpendAlertState;
+/** Whether an alert state says anything at all (nothing crossed, nothing projected ⇒ no card). */
+export declare function spendAlertFiring(state: SpendAlertState): boolean;
+/**
+ * The signals one tier contributes to a fold: {@link SpendAlertState} minus the period, which
+ * belongs to the scope rather than to any one tier.
+ */
+export type SpendAlertSignals = Pick<SpendAlertState, 'threshold' | 'projectedOverrun'>;
+/**
+ * Fold the per-tier states a scope is in into the ONE state {@link spendAlertEscalated} compares:
+ * the highest threshold any tier crossed, and whether any tier projects an overrun.
+ *
+ * BOTH sides of that comparison must come from here. A card lists every tier that was firing when
+ * it was raised, so pitting it against a single tier's state is not a stricter test but a
+ * different one, and it loses real warnings: an account tier that newly starts projecting an
+ * overrun beside a workspace tier already sitting at 80% moves the fold and leaves the worst tier
+ * untouched, so the card is never re-raised and the account's overrun is never announced. Folding
+ * both sides through one function is what makes that asymmetry impossible to reintroduce.
+ */
+export declare function mergeSpendAlertStates(periodStart: number, tiers: readonly SpendAlertSignals[]): SpendAlertState;
+/**
+ * Whether `next` is an ESCALATION over what was last notified: the once-per-crossing rule.
+ *
+ * Only an upward move earns a fresh notification: a new period re-arms everything, a higher
+ * threshold is news, and a projection that has newly turned to overrun is news. Staying at
+ * 80% for three weeks is not, and neither is falling back from 80% to nothing, because
+ * un-crossing a threshold is not something anyone needs to be told about.
+ *
+ * A null `previous` means nothing has been notified for this scope yet, so any firing state
+ * escalates.
+ *
+ * Both arguments must be folds over the SAME tier set (see {@link mergeSpendAlertStates}).
+ */
+export declare function spendAlertEscalated(previous: SpendAlertState | null, next: SpendAlertState): boolean;
+//# sourceMappingURL=forecast.logic.d.ts.map

package/dist/forecast.logic.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/forecast.logic.js

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+// Forward-looking spend: burn rate, month-end projection, and the alert state a scope is in.
+//
+// The spend safeguard proper (`SpendService`) is REACTIVE: it sums the period's metered
+// ledger and pauses a run at the ceiling. Everything here is ADVISORY and pure: no clock,
+// no repository, no LLM. It exists so a team learns it is running out while there is still
+// time to raise the limit or stop a runaway, instead of learning it from a run that paused
+// mid-pipeline. Nothing in this module may change gating: a projection bug must never pause
+// or unpause a run.
+//
+// Both consumers (the alert sweep and, later, the Usage surface) go through the SAME
+// functions, so what a card says and what a chart draws cannot disagree about the same
+// workspace.
+/** One day in ms: the unit every rate below is expressed in. */
+const DAY_MS = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+/**
+ * The trailing span the burn rate is measured over. A week smooths the working-week shape
+ * (a team that runs pipelines Monday to Friday would project wildly off a Sunday sample)
+ * while still reacting within a day or two to a genuine change of pace.
+ *
+ * Deliberately NOT the period-to-date average: on the 28th, a month-to-date rate is
+ * dominated by spend from three weeks ago and barely moves when a runaway starts today,
+ * which is the one moment the forecast has to earn its keep.
+ */
+export const BURN_RATE_WINDOW_MS = 7 * DAY_MS;
+/**
+ * The shortest observed span a burn rate may be derived from. Under it the rate is an
+ * artefact of when the sample happened to start: a workspace that spent 20 EUR in its first
+ * ten minutes is not spending 2,880 EUR/day, and saying so would train people to ignore the
+ * alert. Below this the forecast reports `insufficient-history` and withholds the
+ * projection rather than publishing a number it cannot stand behind.
+ */
+export const MIN_OBSERVED_SPAN_MS = 6 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+/**
+ * The default fraction of the limit at which a proactive alert fires. Configurable
+ * thresholds beside the budget limits are a later slice of the forecasting initiative; until
+ * then every deployment alerts at the same 80%.
+ */
+export const DEFAULT_SPEND_ALERT_THRESHOLDS = [0.8];
+/**
+ * The forward-looking position of one scope. Pure: the same inputs always produce the same
+ * forecast, which is what lets the sweep and the UI agree without sharing state.
+ */
+export function forecastSpend(input) {
+    const { costSpent, costLimit, windowCost, windowFirstSeenAt, windowStart, periodEnd, now } = input;
+    const consumedFraction = Number.isFinite(costLimit) && costLimit > 0 ? costSpent / costLimit : 0;
+    // The span the window's rows actually cover: from the older of the window's start and the
+    // first row seen inside it, to now. A scope with rows spanning the whole window measures the
+    // whole window; a younger one measures only as far back as it has evidence for.
+    const observedFrom = windowFirstSeenAt == null ? windowStart : Math.max(windowStart, windowFirstSeenAt);
+    const observedMs = Math.max(0, now - observedFrom);
+    const burnRatePerDay = observedMs > 0 ? (windowCost / observedMs) * DAY_MS : 0;
+    // A scope with no metered rows in the window has a genuine, confident rate of zero. There
+    // is nothing uncertain about "spent nothing all week". Short history is the uncertain case.
+    const confidence = windowFirstSeenAt != null && observedMs < MIN_OBSERVED_SPAN_MS ? 'insufficient-history' : 'ok';
+    if (confidence !== 'ok') {
+        return {
+            burnRatePerDay,
+            projectedTotal: null,
+            projectedExhaustionAt: null,
+            consumedFraction,
+            confidence,
+        };
+    }
+    const remainingDays = Math.max(0, periodEnd - now) / DAY_MS;
+    const projectedTotal = costSpent + burnRatePerDay * remainingDays;
+    return {
+        burnRatePerDay,
+        projectedTotal,
+        projectedExhaustionAt: exhaustionAt(costSpent, costLimit, burnRatePerDay, now, periodEnd),
+        consumedFraction,
+        confidence,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * When the limit is projected to be reached, or null when that is not expected inside this
+ * period. Already-exhausted returns null on purpose: the budget gate has already acted, so a
+ * forecast pointing at the past would be a second, weaker statement of a settled fact.
+ */
+function exhaustionAt(costSpent, costLimit, burnRatePerDay, now, periodEnd) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(costLimit) || costSpent >= costLimit || burnRatePerDay <= 0)
+        return null;
+    const at = now + ((costLimit - costSpent) / burnRatePerDay) * DAY_MS;
+    return at < periodEnd ? at : null;
+}
+/**
+ * The alert state implied by a forecast. `thresholds` are fractions of the limit; an empty
+ * list (or an inactive tier) yields a state that fires nothing.
+ *
+ * `projectedOverrun` is deliberately suppressed once the limit is ALREADY reached: at that
+ * point the projection is no longer a warning about the future, and the reactive safeguard
+ * owns the message. It is likewise suppressed when the projection is unpublishable, because
+ * "we cannot forecast this yet" must not be reported as "you are fine".
+ */
+export function spendAlertState(forecast, periodStart, costLimit, thresholds = DEFAULT_SPEND_ALERT_THRESHOLDS) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(costLimit) || costLimit <= 0) {
+        return { periodStart, threshold: null, projectedOverrun: false };
+    }
+    const crossed = thresholds.filter((t) => t > 0 && forecast.consumedFraction >= t);
+    const projectedOverrun = forecast.confidence === 'ok' &&
+        forecast.projectedTotal != null &&
+        forecast.consumedFraction < 1 &&
+        forecast.projectedTotal > costLimit;
+    return {
+        periodStart,
+        threshold: crossed.length > 0 ? Math.max(...crossed) : null,
+        projectedOverrun,
+    };
+}
+/** Whether an alert state says anything at all (nothing crossed, nothing projected ⇒ no card). */
+export function spendAlertFiring(state) {
+    return state.threshold != null || state.projectedOverrun;
+}
+/**
+ * Fold the per-tier states a scope is in into the ONE state {@link spendAlertEscalated} compares:
+ * the highest threshold any tier crossed, and whether any tier projects an overrun.
+ *
+ * BOTH sides of that comparison must come from here. A card lists every tier that was firing when
+ * it was raised, so pitting it against a single tier's state is not a stricter test but a
+ * different one, and it loses real warnings: an account tier that newly starts projecting an
+ * overrun beside a workspace tier already sitting at 80% moves the fold and leaves the worst tier
+ * untouched, so the card is never re-raised and the account's overrun is never announced. Folding
+ * both sides through one function is what makes that asymmetry impossible to reintroduce.
+ */
+export function mergeSpendAlertStates(periodStart, tiers) {
+    let threshold = null;
+    let projectedOverrun = false;
+    for (const tier of tiers) {
+        if (tier.threshold != null && (threshold == null || tier.threshold > threshold)) {
+            threshold = tier.threshold;
+        }
+        projectedOverrun ||= tier.projectedOverrun;
+    }
+    return { periodStart, threshold, projectedOverrun };
+}
+/**
+ * Whether `next` is an ESCALATION over what was last notified: the once-per-crossing rule.
+ *
+ * Only an upward move earns a fresh notification: a new period re-arms everything, a higher
+ * threshold is news, and a projection that has newly turned to overrun is news. Staying at
+ * 80% for three weeks is not, and neither is falling back from 80% to nothing, because
+ * un-crossing a threshold is not something anyone needs to be told about.
+ *
+ * A null `previous` means nothing has been notified for this scope yet, so any firing state
+ * escalates.
+ *
+ * Both arguments must be folds over the SAME tier set (see {@link mergeSpendAlertStates}).
+ */
+export function spendAlertEscalated(previous, next) {
+    if (!spendAlertFiring(next))
+        return false;
+    if (!previous || previous.periodStart !== next.periodStart)
+        return true;
+    if ((next.threshold ?? 0) > (previous.threshold ?? 0))
+        return true;
+    return next.projectedOverrun && !previous.projectedOverrun;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=forecast.logic.js.map

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package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
-export { SpendService, type SpendServiceDependencies, type RecordUsageInput, type BudgetTierScope, } from './SpendService.js';
-export { type ModelPrice, type ResolvedModelPrice, type InputTokenClassUsage, type SpendPricing, CACHE_READ_MULTIPLIER, CACHE_WRITE_MULTIPLIER, DEFAULT_MODEL_PRICES, DEFAULT_MONTHLY_LIMIT_EUR, DEFAULT_SPEND_PRICING, budgetCapsOverlay, effectiveTierLimit, priceFor, ratesFor, modelCostResolver, estimateCost, estimateClassedCost, withDynamicPrices, startOfMonthUtc, } from './pricing.js';
+export { SpendService, type SpendServiceDependencies, type RecordUsageInput, type ScopedSpendForecast, type BudgetTierScope, } from './SpendService.js';
+export { type ModelPrice, type ResolvedModelPrice, type InputTokenClassUsage, type SpendPricing, CACHE_READ_MULTIPLIER, CACHE_WRITE_MULTIPLIER, DEFAULT_MODEL_PRICES, DEFAULT_MONTHLY_LIMIT_EUR, DEFAULT_SPEND_PRICING, budgetCapsOverlay, effectiveTierLimit, priceFor, ratesFor, modelCostResolver, estimateCost, estimateClassedCost, withDynamicPrices, startOfMonthUtc, startOfNextMonthUtc, } from './pricing.js';
+export { type SpendAlertSignals, type SpendAlertState, type SpendForecast, type SpendForecastConfidence, type SpendForecastInput, BURN_RATE_WINDOW_MS, DEFAULT_SPEND_ALERT_THRESHOLDS, MIN_OBSERVED_SPAN_MS, forecastSpend, mergeSpendAlertStates, spendAlertEscalated, spendAlertFiring, spendAlertState, } from './forecast.logic.js';
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.d.ts.map

package/dist/index.d.ts.map

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package/dist/index.js

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 // Pricing tables and spend metering/gating for @cat-factory.
 export { SpendService, } from './SpendService.js';
-export { CACHE_READ_MULTIPLIER, CACHE_WRITE_MULTIPLIER, DEFAULT_MODEL_PRICES, DEFAULT_MONTHLY_LIMIT_EUR, DEFAULT_SPEND_PRICING, budgetCapsOverlay, effectiveTierLimit, priceFor, ratesFor, modelCostResolver, estimateCost, estimateClassedCost, withDynamicPrices, startOfMonthUtc, } from './pricing.js';
+export { CACHE_READ_MULTIPLIER, CACHE_WRITE_MULTIPLIER, DEFAULT_MODEL_PRICES, DEFAULT_MONTHLY_LIMIT_EUR, DEFAULT_SPEND_PRICING, budgetCapsOverlay, effectiveTierLimit, priceFor, ratesFor, modelCostResolver, estimateCost, estimateClassedCost, withDynamicPrices, startOfMonthUtc, startOfNextMonthUtc, } from './pricing.js';
+export { BURN_RATE_WINDOW_MS, DEFAULT_SPEND_ALERT_THRESHOLDS, MIN_OBSERVED_SPAN_MS, forecastSpend, mergeSpendAlertStates, spendAlertEscalated, spendAlertFiring, spendAlertState, } from './forecast.logic.js';
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/pricing.d.ts

@@ -161,4 +161,10 @@ export declare function estimateCost(pricing: SpendPricing, ref: ModelRef, usage
 export declare function budgetCapsOverlay(accountCap: number | undefined, userCap: number | undefined): Partial<Pick<SpendPricing, 'accountMonthlyLimitCap' | 'userMonthlyLimitCap'>>;
 /** Start of the calendar month containing `epochMs`, in UTC (epoch ms). */
 export declare function startOfMonthUtc(epochMs: number): number;
+/**
+ * Start of the month AFTER the one containing `epochMs`, in UTC: the exclusive end of a
+ * billing period, which is what the spend forecast extrapolates to. `Date.UTC` normalises a
+ * month index of 12 into the next January, so no year wrap is needed here.
+ */
+export declare function startOfNextMonthUtc(epochMs: number): number;
 //# sourceMappingURL=pricing.d.ts.map

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package/dist/pricing.js

@@ -279,4 +279,13 @@ export function startOfMonthUtc(epochMs) {
     const d = new Date(epochMs);
     return Date.UTC(d.getUTCFullYear(), d.getUTCMonth(), 1);
 }
+/**
+ * Start of the month AFTER the one containing `epochMs`, in UTC: the exclusive end of a
+ * billing period, which is what the spend forecast extrapolates to. `Date.UTC` normalises a
+ * month index of 12 into the next January, so no year wrap is needed here.
+ */
+export function startOfNextMonthUtc(epochMs) {
+    const d = new Date(epochMs);
+    return Date.UTC(d.getUTCFullYear(), d.getUTCMonth() + 1, 1);
+}
 //# sourceMappingURL=pricing.js.map

package/dist/pricing.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@cat-factory/spend",
-  "version": "0.14.15",
+  "version": "0.15.1",
   "description": "Pricing tables and spend metering for the Agent Architecture Board.",
   "repository": {
     "type": "git",
@@ -24,8 +24,8 @@
     "access": "public"
   },
   "dependencies": {
-    "@cat-factory/contracts": "0.237.0",
-    "@cat-factory/kernel": "0.236.1"
+    "@cat-factory/contracts": "0.239.0",
+    "@cat-factory/kernel": "0.238.0"
   },
   "devDependencies": {
     "typescript": "7.0.2",