@bradtaylorsf/alpha-loop 1.14.0 → 1.14.2

package/dist/lib/routing-promotion.js

@@ -0,0 +1,229 @@
+/**
+ * Routing promotion/demotion math — pure-functional rules for deciding when a
+ * pipeline stage should be moved from a frontier model to a local model
+ * (promotion) or reverted back to a frontier fallback (demotion).
+ *
+ * Thresholds match issue #163:
+ *  - Promotion requires >=30 runs, pipeline_success_delta >= -0.03,
+ *    cost_per_issue_delta <= -0.40 (>=40% savings), tool_error_rate < 0.02.
+ *  - Demotion fires when rolling 10-issue tool_error_rate > 0.08 OR
+ *    pipeline_success drops >10pts vs trailing 30-issue baseline.
+ */
+import { parse as parseYaml, stringify as stringifyYaml } from 'yaml';
+/** Promotion thresholds (exported for tests + documentation). */
+export const PROMOTION_MIN_RUNS = 30;
+export const PROMOTION_SUCCESS_DELTA_FLOOR = -0.03;
+export const PROMOTION_COST_SAVINGS_MIN = 0.40;
+export const PROMOTION_TOOL_ERROR_CEILING = 0.02;
+/** Demotion thresholds. */
+export const DEMOTION_WINDOW = 10;
+export const DEMOTION_TOOL_ERROR_CEILING = 0.08;
+export const DEMOTION_BASELINE_WINDOW = 30;
+export const DEMOTION_SUCCESS_DROP_PTS = 0.10;
+/** Endpoint protocols considered "local" for promotion purposes. */
+const LOCAL_ENDPOINT_TYPES = ['anthropic_compat', 'openai_compat'];
+/**
+ * For each stage with a frontier + local cell, return a PromotionProposal
+ * when the local cell meets all thresholds. Stages with no eligible
+ * frontier/local pair are simply skipped.
+ */
+export function evaluatePromotion(cells, opts = {}) {
+    const minRuns = opts.minRuns ?? PROMOTION_MIN_RUNS;
+    const successDeltaFloor = opts.successDeltaFloor ?? PROMOTION_SUCCESS_DELTA_FLOOR;
+    const costSavingsMin = opts.costSavingsMin ?? PROMOTION_COST_SAVINGS_MIN;
+    const toolErrorCeiling = opts.toolErrorCeiling ?? PROMOTION_TOOL_ERROR_CEILING;
+    const byStage = new Map();
+    for (const cell of cells) {
+        const list = byStage.get(cell.stage);
+        if (list)
+            list.push(cell);
+        else
+            byStage.set(cell.stage, [cell]);
+    }
+    const proposals = [];
+    for (const [stage, stageCells] of byStage) {
+        const frontier = pickFrontier(stageCells);
+        if (!frontier)
+            continue;
+        const candidates = stageCells.filter((c) => c !== frontier && isLocalCell(c));
+        for (const candidate of candidates) {
+            if (candidate.runs < minRuns)
+                continue;
+            // Require a successful baseline to compute meaningful deltas.
+            if (frontier.cost_per_issue_shipped == null ||
+                candidate.cost_per_issue_shipped == null ||
+                frontier.cost_per_issue_shipped <= 0) {
+                continue;
+            }
+            // Round on compute so float-precision noise doesn't knock edge cases
+            // off the inclusive boundaries defined in the spec.
+            const pipelineSuccessDelta = round3(candidate.pipeline_success_rate - frontier.pipeline_success_rate);
+            const costPerIssueDelta = round4(candidate.cost_per_issue_shipped - frontier.cost_per_issue_shipped);
+            const costSavingsPct = round3(-costPerIssueDelta / frontier.cost_per_issue_shipped);
+            // Tie on cost (no savings) blocks — costSavingsMin is strictly required.
+            if (pipelineSuccessDelta < successDeltaFloor)
+                continue;
+            if (costSavingsPct < costSavingsMin)
+                continue;
+            if (candidate.tool_error_rate >= toolErrorCeiling)
+                continue;
+            proposals.push({
+                stage,
+                from: { model: frontier.model, endpoint: frontier.endpoint },
+                to: { model: candidate.model, endpoint: candidate.endpoint },
+                metrics: {
+                    runs: candidate.runs,
+                    pipelineSuccessDelta,
+                    costPerIssueDelta,
+                    costPerIssueSavingsPct: costSavingsPct,
+                    toolErrorRate: candidate.tool_error_rate,
+                    frontierCostPerIssue: frontier.cost_per_issue_shipped,
+                    candidateCostPerIssue: candidate.cost_per_issue_shipped,
+                },
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    return proposals;
+}
+/**
+ * Decide whether the stage should be demoted based on recent turn records and
+ * the trailing-30 success baseline computed from aggregated cells.
+ *
+ * `recentTurns` is oldest→newest; only the last `DEMOTION_WINDOW` turns are
+ * inspected for the tool-error guardrail, and the last
+ * `DEMOTION_BASELINE_WINDOW` turns (excluding the most recent 10) provide the
+ * success baseline.
+ */
+export function evaluateDemotion(recentTurns, cells, stage) {
+    const windowed = recentTurns.slice(-DEMOTION_WINDOW);
+    // Short windows never trigger — we don't have enough signal yet.
+    if (windowed.length >= DEMOTION_WINDOW) {
+        const errs = windowed.filter((t) => t.errored).length;
+        const rate = errs / windowed.length;
+        if (rate > DEMOTION_TOOL_ERROR_CEILING) {
+            return {
+                fire: true,
+                reason: 'tool_error_rate',
+                stage,
+                metrics: {
+                    rollingToolErrorRate: round4(rate),
+                    rollingWindow: windowed.length,
+                },
+            };
+        }
+    }
+    // Pipeline-success drop check — uses trailing 30-run baseline from the
+    // aggregated cells for the stage. Prefer the highest-run cell as the
+    // reference point for the baseline.
+    const stageCells = cells.filter((c) => c.stage === stage && c.runs > 0);
+    if (stageCells.length > 0) {
+        const trailing = [...stageCells].sort((a, b) => b.runs - a.runs)[0];
+        if (trailing.runs >= DEMOTION_BASELINE_WINDOW) {
+            // Current success = rate over the rolling window. Derived from turn
+            // records (a turn is "successful" when not errored, matching how
+            // pipeline_success_rate aggregates at the session level).
+            if (windowed.length >= DEMOTION_WINDOW) {
+                const currentSuccess = windowed.filter((t) => !t.errored).length / windowed.length;
+                const drop = trailing.pipeline_success_rate - currentSuccess;
+                if (drop > DEMOTION_SUCCESS_DROP_PTS) {
+                    return {
+                        fire: true,
+                        reason: 'pipeline_success_drop',
+                        stage,
+                        metrics: {
+                            baselineSuccessRate: trailing.pipeline_success_rate,
+                            currentSuccessRate: round3(currentSuccess),
+                            successDrop: round3(drop),
+                            rollingWindow: windowed.length,
+                        },
+                    };
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return { fire: false, stage };
+}
+/**
+ * Apply a set of promotion proposals to a YAML document, patching the
+ * `routing.stages.<name>` block for each. Returns the new YAML string plus a
+ * unified-style diff that's easy to drop into a PR body.
+ */
+export function applyRoutingDiff(yaml, proposals) {
+    if (proposals.length === 0)
+        return { yaml, diff: '' };
+    const parsed = parseYaml(yaml) ?? {};
+    const routing = (parsed.routing && typeof parsed.routing === 'object'
+        ? parsed.routing
+        : {});
+    const stages = (routing.stages && typeof routing.stages === 'object'
+        ? routing.stages
+        : {});
+    const diffLines = [];
+    for (const p of proposals) {
+        const before = stages[p.stage];
+        const beforeFrag = before
+            ? stringifyYaml({ [p.stage]: before }).trimEnd()
+            : `${p.stage}: (unset)`;
+        const newStage = { model: p.to.model };
+        if (p.to.endpoint)
+            newStage.endpoint = p.to.endpoint;
+        stages[p.stage] = newStage;
+        const afterFrag = stringifyYaml({ [p.stage]: newStage }).trimEnd();
+        diffLines.push(`# stage: ${p.stage}`);
+        for (const line of beforeFrag.split('\n'))
+            diffLines.push(`- ${line}`);
+        for (const line of afterFrag.split('\n'))
+            diffLines.push(`+ ${line}`);
+        diffLines.push('');
+    }
+    routing.stages = stages;
+    parsed.routing = routing;
+    const newYaml = stringifyYaml(parsed);
+    return { yaml: newYaml, diff: diffLines.join('\n').trimEnd() };
+}
+/**
+ * Build the YAML patch that reverts a stage to the routing.fallback.escalate_to
+ * target. Shared by manual demotions and automated guardrail trips.
+ */
+export function buildDemotionYaml(yaml, stage, fallback) {
+    const proposal = {
+        stage,
+        from: { model: 'current', endpoint: undefined },
+        to: { model: fallback.model, endpoint: fallback.endpoint },
+        metrics: {
+            runs: 0,
+            pipelineSuccessDelta: 0,
+            costPerIssueDelta: 0,
+            costPerIssueSavingsPct: 0,
+            toolErrorRate: 0,
+            frontierCostPerIssue: null,
+            candidateCostPerIssue: null,
+        },
+    };
+    return applyRoutingDiff(yaml, [proposal]);
+}
+function pickFrontier(cells) {
+    // Highest total cost = frontier, mirroring telemetry.aggregateRouting's
+    // baseline choice. Break ties by higher cost_per_issue so we don't promote
+    // against a volume-heavy local cell that happens to lead on total spend.
+    const eligible = cells.filter((c) => !isLocalCell(c));
+    if (eligible.length === 0)
+        return null;
+    return [...eligible].sort((a, b) => {
+        if (b.total_cost_usd !== a.total_cost_usd)
+            return b.total_cost_usd - a.total_cost_usd;
+        const ac = a.cost_per_issue_shipped ?? 0;
+        const bc = b.cost_per_issue_shipped ?? 0;
+        return bc - ac;
+    })[0];
+}
+function isLocalCell(cell) {
+    return cell.endpoint_type != null && LOCAL_ENDPOINT_TYPES.includes(cell.endpoint_type);
+}
+function round3(n) {
+    return Math.round(n * 1000) / 1000;
+}
+function round4(n) {
+    return Math.round(n * 10000) / 10000;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=routing-promotion.js.map

package/dist/lib/routing-promotion.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/lib/session.js

@@ -7,6 +7,8 @@ import { log } from './logger.js';
 import { exec, formatTimestamp } from './shell.js';
 import { ghExec } from './rate-limit.js';
 import { createPR, updateProjectStatus } from './github.js';
+import { readStageTelemetry } from './telemetry.js';
+import { runDir } from './traces.js';
 function slugify(text) {
     return text.toLowerCase().replace(/[^a-z0-9]+/g, '-').replace(/^-|-$/g, '');
 }
@@ -181,6 +183,14 @@ export async function finalizeSession(session, config) {
     const learningsDir = join(projectDir, '.alpha-loop', 'learnings');
     mkdirSync(learningsDir, { recursive: true });
     const manifestName = `session-${session.name.replace(/\//g, '-')}.json`;
+    const stageEntries = (() => {
+        try {
+            return readStageTelemetry(runDir(session.name, projectDir));
+        }
+        catch {
+            return [];
+        }
+    })();
     const manifest = {
         name: session.name,
         branch: session.branch,
@@ -196,6 +206,9 @@ export async function finalizeSession(session, config) {
             filesChanged: r.filesChanged,
         })),
     };
+    if (stageEntries.length > 0) {
+        manifest.stages = stageEntries;
+    }
     writeFileSync(join(learningsDir, manifestName), JSON.stringify(manifest, null, 2) + '\n');
     log.info(`Session manifest saved: ${manifestName}`);
     // Stage learnings (including session manifest)

package/dist/lib/session.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/lib/telemetry.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
+import type { Config, RoutingEndpointType } from './config.js';
+import type { AgentResult } from './agent.js';
+/** One per-stage telemetry record. Written once per agent invocation. */
+export type StageTelemetry = {
+    /** Pipeline stage name (plan, implement, test_fix, review, verify, assumptions, batch-*). */
+    stage: string;
+    /** Model used for the invocation. */
+    model: string;
+    /** Named routing endpoint the stage hit (or 'default' if routing wasn't used). */
+    endpoint: string;
+    /** Protocol shape of the endpoint — used to identify local vs frontier. */
+    endpoint_type?: RoutingEndpointType;
+    /** Input tokens consumed. */
+    tokens_in: number;
+    /** Output tokens generated. */
+    tokens_out: number;
+    /** Cost in USD. Local-endpoint invocations record 0. */
+    cost_usd: number;
+    /** Wall-clock time in seconds (float). */
+    wall_time_s: number;
+    /** Count of tool_use blocks emitted by the agent. */
+    tool_calls: number;
+    /** Count of tool_result blocks flagged is_error. */
+    tool_errors: number;
+    /** Whether the stage invocation succeeded (exit code 0). */
+    stage_success: boolean;
+    /** ISO timestamp at start of invocation. */
+    started_at: string;
+    /** Routing profile that was active for this invocation, if any. */
+    profile?: string;
+    /** Issue number this stage was processing. */
+    issue_num?: number;
+};
+/** A session manifest reference loaded by the reporter. */
+export type SessionManifestLite = {
+    name: string;
+    completed?: string;
+    results?: Array<{
+        issueNum: number;
+        status: 'success' | 'failure';
+        filesChanged?: number;
+        prUrl?: string;
+    }>;
+    stages?: StageTelemetry[];
+};
+/** Aggregated per-cell metrics, grouped by (stage, model). */
+export type RoutingCell = {
+    stage: string;
+    model: string;
+    endpoint?: string;
+    endpoint_type?: RoutingEndpointType;
+    profile?: string;
+    runs: number;
+    tokens_in: number;
+    tokens_out: number;
+    total_cost_usd: number;
+    pipeline_success_rate: number;
+    cost_per_issue_shipped: number | null;
+    median_wall_time_s: number;
+    tool_error_rate: number;
+    delta_cost_per_issue_shipped_vs_baseline?: number | null;
+    delta_median_wall_time_s_vs_baseline?: number | null;
+    delta_tool_error_rate_vs_baseline?: number | null;
+    delta_pipeline_success_rate_vs_baseline?: number | null;
+};
+/** Aggregation result, grouped by (stage, model), plus global totals. */
+export type RoutingAggregation = {
+    cells: RoutingCell[];
+    total_sessions: number;
+    total_stages: number;
+    total_issues_shipped: number;
+    total_cost_usd: number;
+    filters: {
+        profile?: string;
+        since_ms?: number;
+        baseline: string;
+    };
+};
+/**
+ * Build a StageTelemetry record from an AgentResult and stage context.
+ *
+ * Uses the agent's reported cost/tokens when present. Falls back to the
+ * pricing table (0 for local endpoints since pricing entries are 0/0).
+ */
+export declare function buildStageTelemetry(agentResult: AgentResult, stage: string, config: Config, ctx: {
+    endpoint?: string;
+    endpointType?: RoutingEndpointType;
+    profile?: string;
+    issueNum?: number;
+    startedAt?: string;
+}): StageTelemetry;
+/**
+ * Append a stage telemetry entry to the run's stages.jsonl file.
+ * Creates the file and parent directory when needed.
+ */
+export declare function writeStageTelemetry(runDirPath: string, entry: StageTelemetry): void;
+/**
+ * Read all stage telemetry entries for a single run.
+ * Returns an empty array if the file doesn't exist or has parse errors.
+ */
+export declare function readStageTelemetry(runDirPath: string): StageTelemetry[];
+/**
+ * Scan `.alpha-loop/traces/` under the given project dir and return all
+ * stage telemetry entries across all runs, each tagged with its session name.
+ */
+export declare function readAllStageTelemetry(projectDir?: string): Array<{
+    session: string;
+    entries: StageTelemetry[];
+}>;
+/**
+ * Load session manifests written to `.alpha-loop/learnings/` by finalizeSession.
+ * Used by the reporter to join cost data with shipped-issue counts.
+ */
+export declare function readSessionManifests(projectDir?: string): SessionManifestLite[];
+/**
+ * Aggregate stage telemetry across sessions into per (stage, model) cells.
+ *
+ * - `pipeline_success_rate`: fraction of parent sessions that shipped a
+ *   successful issue while this (stage, model) cell was active.
+ * - `cost_per_issue_shipped`: total cost across this cell divided by the
+ *   number of shipped (status=success, filesChanged>0) issues in the sessions
+ *   where this cell ran.
+ * - `median_wall_time_s`: median wall_time_s across invocations.
+ * - `tool_error_rate`: sum(tool_errors) / sum(tool_calls || runs).
+ * - Delta columns compare each cell against the cell at the same `stage` with
+ *   `model` matching the baseline. When `baseline` is 'all-frontier' (default)
+ *   we pick the highest-cost cell per stage as the baseline (frontier).
+ */
+export declare function aggregateRouting(items: Array<{
+    session: string;
+    entries: StageTelemetry[];
+}>, manifests: SessionManifestLite[], opts?: {
+    profile?: string;
+    sinceMs?: number;
+    baseline?: string;
+}): RoutingAggregation;
+/**
+ * Format an aggregation as a human-readable table or JSON string.
+ */
+export declare function formatRoutingReport(agg: RoutingAggregation, opts?: {
+    json?: boolean;
+}): string;
+/**
+ * Parse a duration string like "30d", "12h", "45m", "90s" into milliseconds.
+ * Returns undefined when the input is empty or unparseable.
+ */
+export declare function parseDuration(input: string | undefined): number | undefined;