@axiom-lattice/examples-deep_research 1.0.27 → 1.0.28

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  1. package/.env +4 -4
  2. package/.turbo/turbo-build.log +5 -5
  3. package/CHANGELOG.md +11 -0
  4. package/dist/index.js +40 -1
  5. package/dist/index.js.map +1 -1
  6. package/package.json +5 -5
  7. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/business-analytics/README.md +121 -0
  8. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/business-analytics/SKILL.md +187 -108
  9. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/business-analytics/examples.md +295 -0
  10. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/business-analytics/reference.md +240 -0
  11. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/business-analytics/resources/data/sample.json +66 -0
  12. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/business-analytics/resources/prompts/analyze.txt +128 -0
  13. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/business-analytics/resources/templates/report-template.md +260 -0
  14. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/chart-markdown/SKILL.md +91 -0
  15. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/chart-markdown/resources/best-practices/README.md +16 -0
  16. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/chart-markdown/resources/best-practices/data-patterns.md +14 -0
  17. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/chart-markdown/resources/best-practices/finance.md +7 -0
  18. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/chart-markdown/resources/best-practices/formatting.md +14 -0
  19. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/chart-markdown/resources/best-practices/hr-people.md +7 -0
  20. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/chart-markdown/resources/best-practices/marketing-growth.md +7 -0
  21. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/chart-markdown/resources/best-practices/operations-supply-chain.md +7 -0
  22. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/chart-markdown/resources/best-practices/sales-retail.md +8 -0
  23. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/chart-markdown/resources/examples.md +80 -0
  24. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/metrics-query/SKILL.md +296 -0
  25. package/src/index-with-auth.ts +122 -0
  26. package/src/index.ts +55 -1
  27. package/src/agents/data_agent/skills/generate-chart-md/SKILL.md +0 -176
@@ -1,151 +1,230 @@
1
1
  ---
2
2
  name: business-analytics
3
- description: 协调和执行完整的业务分析流程,整合财务分析、销售分析和运营分析三大模块。适用于企业日常经营数据的全方位分析需求。
4
- metadata:
5
- category: business_analysis
6
- subSkills:
7
- - financial-analysis
8
- - sales-analysis
9
- - operations-analysis
3
+ description: Generates comprehensive CFO-level business analysis reports from metrics data. Creates board-level reports with profit bridge analysis, cash conversion cycle diagnostics, GMROI metrics, strategic scenario modeling, and actionable executive summaries. Use when analyzing business performance data, generating financial reports, or conducting strategic business analysis.
10
4
  ---
11
5
 
12
- ## 角色定位
6
+ # Business Analytics Report Generation
13
7
 
14
- 作为业务分析协调者,整合使用以下子技能完成端到端业务分析:
15
- - `financial-analysis`: 财务数据分析,包括毛利、报表、财务比率
16
- - `sales-analysis`: 销售数据分析,包括业绩、客户、产品、区域
17
- - `operations-analysis`: 运营数据分析,包括供应商、成本、交付、库存
8
+ ## Overview
18
9
 
19
- ## 分析类型矩阵
10
+ This skill generates comprehensive, board-level business analysis reports similar to the "Confectionary Low-Margin Deep Analysis Report" style. Reports combine financial metrics, strategic insights, and actionable recommendations.
20
11
 
21
- ### 财务分析
22
- | 分析类型 | 示例问题 | 输出内容 |
23
- |---------|---------|---------|
24
- | 毛利分析 | "分析各产品线的毛利率" | 毛利率趋势、贡献分析、改进建议 |
25
- | 财务报表分析 | "生成上月资产负债表" | 报表数据、异常标注、同比分析 |
26
- | 财务比率分析 | "计算并分析 ROE 和 ROA" | 比率计算、趋势图、行业对比 |
12
+ ## Report Structure
27
13
 
28
- ### 销售分析
29
- | 分析类型 | 示例问题 | 输出内容 |
30
- |---------|---------|---------|
31
- | 销售业绩分析 | "分析销售人员业绩" | 业绩排名、达成率、趋势图 |
32
- | 客户分析 | "分析 TOP 20 客户" | 客户价值、贡献度、流失风险 |
33
- | 产品分析 | "分析各产品销售表现" | 产品排名、增长率、市场份额 |
34
- | 区域分析 | "分析各区域销售情况" | 区域对比、增长率、潜力评估 |
14
+ Always organize reports using this hierarchy:
35
15
 
36
- ### 运营分析
37
- | 分析类型 | 示例问题 | 输出内容 |
38
- |---------|---------|---------|
39
- | 供应商管理 | "评估供应商交付绩效" | 交付准时率、质量评分、排名 |
40
- | 成本指标分析 | "分析成本构成和变化" | 成本结构、变动分析、优化建议 |
41
- | 交付能力分析 | "分析订单交付及时率" | 准时交付率、延迟原因、改进方案 |
42
- | 库存分析 | "分析库存周转情况" | 周转率、呆滞库存、优化建议 |
16
+ ```
17
+ 1. Executive Summary (1 page)
18
+ - Core conclusions (3-5 bullet points)
19
+ - Top 3 immediate actions
20
+
21
+ 2. Model 1: Gross Margin & Channel Split
22
+ - Methodology note
23
+ - Summary data tables
24
+ - Channel breakdowns
25
+
26
+ 3. Model 2: Profit Bridge
27
+ - Revenue to operating profit flow
28
+ - Key insight callouts
29
+ - Risk visualizations
30
+
31
+ 4. Model 3: Cash Conversion Cycle + GMROI
32
+ - CCC calculations
33
+ - DSO structure breakdown
34
+ - GMROI analysis vs benchmarks
35
+
36
+ 5. Model 4: Strategic Scenarios
37
+ - Option A/B comparisons
38
+ - P&L impact modeling
39
+ - Business model characteristics
40
+
41
+ 6. Model 5: CFO/CEO Q&A
42
+ - 5 key questions answered
43
+ - Strategic conclusions
44
+
45
+ 7. Action Roadmap
46
+ - Priority matrix (Impact vs Urgency)
47
+
48
+ 8. Appendix
49
+ - Key financial metrics reference
50
+ ```
51
+
52
+ ## Writing Style Guidelines
53
+
54
+ ### Tone
55
+ - Professional, board-level language
56
+ - Direct and concise
57
+ - Data-driven with clear sourcing
58
+ - Action-oriented
43
59
 
44
- ## 问题路由规则
60
+ ### Formatting
61
+ - Use ASCII tables for data presentation
62
+ - Include currency symbols (¥, $, €, SGD) consistently
63
+ - Show percentages with 1 decimal place
64
+ - Use visual bar charts with █ characters where helpful
45
65
 
46
- 根据用户问题的关键词,自动路由到相应的子技能:
66
+ ### Data Presentation
67
+ - Always cite data sources
68
+ - Include analysis period dates
69
+ - Show calculations transparently
70
+ - Flag methodology limitations
47
71
 
48
- ### 路由到 financial-analysis
49
- - 关键词:毛利、毛利率、利润、损益、收入、成本、资产负债、现金流量、ROE、ROA、ROIC、流动比率、速动比率、资产负债率、周转率(财务相关)
72
+ ## Key Report Components
50
73
 
51
- ### 路由到 sales-analysis
52
- - 关键词:销售业绩、销售额、客户、订单、产品销量、区域销售、业务员、渠道、价格、折扣、市场份额
74
+ ### Executive Summary Template
53
75
 
54
- ### 路由到 operations-analysis
55
- - 关键词:供应商、采购、交付、准时率、库存、周转、成本(运营相关)、物料、质量、产能、效率
76
+ ```markdown
77
+ ## Executive Summary (1 page)
56
78
 
57
- ## 工作流程
79
+ ### Core Conclusions
58
80
 
59
- ### 步骤 1:问题识别与分类
81
+ 1. [Key finding with metric]
82
+ 2. [Key finding with metric]
83
+ 3. [Key finding with metric]
60
84
 
61
- 1. **分析用户意图**:
62
- - 识别问题所属的业务领域
63
- - 确定具体的分析类型
64
- - 明确分析的时间范围和维度
85
+ ### Top 3 Immediate Actions
86
+ 1. [Action item] — [Expected impact]
87
+ 2. [Action item] — [Expected impact]
88
+ 3. [Action item] — [Expected impact]
89
+ ```
65
90
 
66
- 2. **路由到子技能**:
67
- - 根据关键词匹配,选择合适的子技能
68
- - 如果涉及多个领域,按优先级顺序分析
91
+ ### Profit Bridge Template
69
92
 
70
- ### 步骤 2:数据准备
93
+ ```markdown
94
+ ## Model 2: Profit Bridge
71
95
 
72
- 1. **检查数据库连接**:
73
- - 确认可以访问相关数据表
74
- - 了解表结构和数据字段
96
+ | Item | Amount | % of Revenue |
97
+ |------|--------|--------------|
98
+ | Revenue | [Amount] | 100.0% |
99
+ | Less: COGS | [Amount] | [Percentage] |
100
+ | **Gross Margin** | [Amount] | [Percentage] |
101
+ | Less: [Expense 1] | [Amount] | [Percentage] |
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+ | Less: [Expense 2] | [Amount] | [Percentage] |
103
+ | Plus: [Income item] | [Amount] | [Percentage] |
104
+ | **Operating Profit** | [Amount] | [Percentage] |
105
+ ```
75
106
 
76
- 2. **数据质量检查**:
77
- - 验证数据完整性
78
- - 识别异常值和缺失值
107
+ ### Cash Conversion Cycle Template
79
108
 
80
- ### 步骤 3:执行分析
109
+ ```markdown
110
+ ## Model 3: Cash Conversion Cycle
81
111
 
82
- 1. **委托子技能分析**:
83
- - 使用相应的子技能执行详细分析
84
- - 获取分析结果和建议
112
+ ### CCC Components
85
113
 
86
- 2. **数据可视化**:
87
- - 生成图表展示分析结果
88
- - 确保图表类型与分析目标匹配
114
+ | Metric | Days | Calculation |
115
+ |--------|------|-------------|
116
+ | DIO (Days Inventory Outstanding) | [Days] | (Average Inventory / COGS) × 365 |
117
+ | DSO (Days Sales Outstanding) | [Days] | (AR / Revenue) × 365 |
118
+ | DPO (Days Payable Outstanding) | [Days] | (AP / COGS) × 365 |
119
+ | **CCC** | **[Days]** | **DIO + DSO - DPO** |
89
120
 
90
- ### 步骤 4:结果整合
121
+ ### Key Insight
122
+ [Explanation of CCC implications]
123
+ ```
91
124
 
92
- 1. **综合分析报告**:
93
- - 整合各维度分析结果
94
- - 识别跨领域的关联和趋势
125
+ ### GMROI Template
95
126
 
96
- 2. **业务建议**:
97
- - 基于分析结果提出改进建议
98
- - 优先推荐高影响力措施
127
+ ```markdown
128
+ ### GMROI Analysis
99
129
 
100
- ## 输出标准格式
130
+ | Metric | Value | Benchmark |
131
+ |--------|-------|-----------|
132
+ | Annual Gross Margin | [Amount] | — |
133
+ | Average Inventory | [Amount] | — |
134
+ | **GMROI** | **[Ratio]x** | 3.0–5.0x |
101
135
 
102
- 所有业务分析应包含以下要素:
136
+ ### Interpretation
137
+ [Analysis of GMROI vs benchmark]
138
+ ```
103
139
 
104
- 1. **执行摘要**:关键发现和核心建议
105
- 2. **详细分析**:
106
- - 数据展示(表格/图表)
107
- - 趋势分析
108
- - 对比分析(同比/环比/目标对比)
109
- 3. **洞察发现**:异常点、机会点、风险点
110
- 4. **行动建议**:具体、可执行的改进措施
111
- 5. **数据附录**:详细的查询条件和数据源说明
140
+ ### Strategic Scenario Template
112
141
 
113
- ## 技能使用示例
142
+ ```markdown
143
+ ## Model 4: Strategic Scenarios
114
144
 
115
- ### 示例 1:毛利分析
145
+ ### Scenario Comparison
146
+
147
+ | Metric | Option A | Option B | Delta |
148
+ |--------|----------|----------|-------|
149
+ | Revenue | [Amount] | [Amount] | [Amount] |
150
+ | Gross Margin | [Amount] | [Amount] | [Amount] |
151
+ | Operating Profit | [Amount] | [Amount] | [Amount] |
152
+
153
+ ### Business Model Characteristics
154
+
155
+ | Characteristic | Option A | Option B |
156
+ |----------------|----------|----------|
157
+ | [Attribute 1] | [Value] | [Value] |
158
+ | [Attribute 2] | [Value] | [Value] |
116
159
  ```
117
- 用户:请分析各产品线的毛利率情况
118
- 路由:financial-analysis
119
- 分析类型:毛利分析
120
- 输出:各产品线毛利率排名、趋势图、改进建议
160
+
161
+ ### CFO/CEO Q&A Template
162
+
163
+ ```markdown
164
+ ## Model 5: CFO and CEO Decision Q&A
165
+
166
+ ### CFO Questions
167
+
168
+ **Q1: [Question]?**
169
+ [Data-driven answer with supporting analysis]
170
+
171
+ **Q2: [Question]?**
172
+ [Data-driven answer with supporting analysis]
173
+
174
+ [Continue for 5 key questions]
175
+
176
+ ### CEO Questions
177
+
178
+ **Q1: [Strategic question]?**
179
+ [Strategic analysis and recommendation]
180
+
181
+ [Continue for 5 strategic questions]
121
182
  ```
122
183
 
123
- ### 示例 2:客户分析
184
+ ### Action Roadmap Template
185
+
186
+ ```markdown
187
+ ## Action Roadmap (Priority Matrix)
188
+
189
+ ### Priority Framework
190
+
124
191
  ```
125
- 用户:分析 TOP 20 客户的贡献情况
126
- 路由:sales-analysis
127
- 分析类型:客户分析
128
- 输出:客户价值分层、贡献度、流失风险预警
192
+ Impact
193
+ High │ [Action 2] [Action 1]
194
+ │ (Urgent/High) (High/Planned)
195
+
196
+ │ [Action 3] [Action 4]
197
+ Low │ (Urgent/Low) (Planned/Low)
198
+ └────────────────────────────────────
199
+ Urgent Planned
129
200
  ```
130
201
 
131
- ### 示例 3:库存分析
132
- ```
133
- 用户:分析库存周转情况
134
- 路由:operations-analysis
135
- 分析类型:库存分析
136
- 输出:周转率、呆滞库存清单、优化建议
202
+ ### Immediate Actions (This Week)
203
+ 1. [Action item with owner and deadline]
204
+
205
+ ### Short-term Actions (This Month)
206
+ 1. [Action item with owner and deadline]
207
+
208
+ ### Medium-term Actions (This Quarter)
209
+ 1. [Action item with owner and deadline]
137
210
  ```
138
211
 
139
- ## 跨技能分析场景
212
+ ## Usage Workflow
213
+
214
+ When generating a business analytics report:
215
+
216
+ 1. **Understand the data source** - Identify available metrics, tables, and time periods
217
+ 2. **Determine the analysis scope** - What business questions need answering?
218
+ 3. **Select relevant models** - Not all 5 models may be needed for every report
219
+ 4. **Calculate metrics** - Ensure all financial calculations are transparent
220
+ 5. **Write executive summary** - Lead with conclusions and actions
221
+ 6. **Build detailed models** - Follow the template structures
222
+ 7. **Create action roadmap** - End with clear, prioritized next steps
223
+
224
+ ## Examples
140
225
 
141
- 当用户问题涉及多个分析领域时:
226
+ See [examples.md](examples.md) for complete sample reports.
142
227
 
143
- 1. **识别主领域**:确定问题的核心业务目标
144
- 2. **识别关联领域**:找出相关的辅助分析维度
145
- 3. **顺序分析**:先分析主领域,再补充关联分析
146
- 4. **综合呈现**:将跨领域分析结果整合呈现
228
+ ## Reference
147
229
 
148
- ### 示例:分析产品盈利能力
149
- - 主领域:financial-analysis(毛利分析)
150
- - 关联领域:sales-analysis(产品销售情况)、operations-analysis(产品成本构成)
151
- - 综合输出:毛利贡献、销售趋势、成本优化空间
230
+ For detailed methodology on specific calculations, see [reference.md](reference.md).
@@ -0,0 +1,295 @@
1
+ # Business Analytics Report Examples
2
+
3
+ ## Example 1: Confectionery Business Analysis
4
+
5
+ This example demonstrates a complete CFO-level business analysis report following the structure defined in SKILL.md.
6
+
7
+ ---
8
+
9
+ # Candy (Confectionery) Low-Margin Deep Analysis Report v2
10
+ ## Candy Business Profit Restructuring Report (Board Level)
11
+
12
+ **Data Source**: ZZZZ_KAIMAYMTC_TEST — MTC Enterprise, Southeast Asia F&B Distributor
13
+ **Analysis Period**: Full year 2025 (snapshot data as of 2026-03-03)
14
+ **Data Foundation**: OINV · OPCH · STOCK · BATCHSTOCK · CUSTBAL · JournalEntry (accounts 401/501 series)
15
+ **Report Version**: v2.1 — Profit Bridge Restructuring Edition; v2.1 Addendum: Cost/Pricing口径 Alert (§1.5), SKU Margin 77–99% Conclusion Withdrawn, P&L/JE为准
16
+
17
+ ---
18
+
19
+ ## Executive Summary (1 Page)
20
+
21
+ ### Core Conclusions
22
+
23
+ The candy business is technically profitable (10.6% real operating margin) but structurally fragile due to three core constraints:
24
+
25
+ 1. **Subsidy Dependency Crisis**: Nestle subsidies contribute 42% of commercial gross profit; real operating profit drops to 1.1% if subsidies are lost
26
+ 2. **Bad Debt Time Bomb**: Accounts receivable aging at 256 days, with ¥2.9M (28%) overdue by more than 2 years, posing a threat of direct loss of 17% of net assets if fully provisioned at one time
27
+ 3. **Inventory Suspicion**: KitKat 2F 17g system shows 703,848 units, requiring 131 years to sell at current velocity; suspected unit of measure (case vs. piece) error, requiring immediate physical count verification
28
+
29
+ ### Top 3 Immediate Actions
30
+
31
+ 1. **Immediately**: Initiate export bad debt collection — Wei Jin customer (HLA + Indo China) ¥2.78M overdue by more than 2 years
32
+ 2. **This Week**: Dispose of Nutella & Go T1 (4,800 units, 4 days to expiry) + Emergency Ferrero T30 order (shortfall of 27,483 units)
33
+ 3. **This Month**: Renegotiate Nestle subsidy contract (¥1.71M/year, 46% of gross profit, extremely high renewal risk)
34
+
35
+ ---
36
+
37
+ ## Model 1: Gross Margin Methodology & Channel Split (JournalEntry Only口径)
38
+
39
+ ### 1.1 Methodology Note
40
+
41
+ All gross profit and COGS in this report come from MTC_VW_AI_JournalEntry:
42
+
43
+ - **Revenue**: Lines with account codes starting with 4, net amount = Credit − Debit (in base currency)
44
+ - **COGS**: Lines with account codes starting with 5, net amount = Credit − Debit (usually negative, indicating cost incurred)
45
+ - **Gross Margin** = (Revenue + COGS) / Revenue × 100% (since COGS is negative, numerator is revenue plus COGS)
46
+ - **Candy category accounts**: Revenue 401020100, Cost 501030100 (see appendix for account mapping)
47
+ - Can drill down by PrcName (CC1 Business Unit), PrcName2 (CC2 Channel), RefDate, etc.; PrcName coverage 100%, PrcName2 coverage ~96.5% in candy account lines (missing lines can be grouped into "Unassigned")
48
+
49
+ **Note**: This report does not perform SKU-level gross profit estimation; all gross profit/COGS/gross margin conclusions are based on JE口径.
50
+
51
+ ### 1.2 Candy Business Summary (JE口径, 2025)
52
+
53
+ | Metric | Value |
54
+ |--------|-------|
55
+ | Revenue | ¥19,228,590 |
56
+ | COGS | -¥15,492,840 |
57
+ | **Gross Margin** | **¥3,735,750** |
58
+ | **Gross Margin %** | **19.4%** |
59
+
60
+ ### 1.3 Channel (CC2) Split
61
+
62
+ For "Local vs Export" or specific channel gross profit, filter and aggregate candy accounts 401020100/501030100 net amounts (Credit−Debit) from JournalEntry by PrcName2 (and PrcName), ensuring revenue and COGS are from the same source and口径. COGS and gross profit in Model 2 (Profit Bridge) and Model 4 of this report are based on JE aggregate or JE channel split, with no non-JE口径 cost estimation.
63
+
64
+ ---
65
+
66
+ ## Model 2: Profit Bridge — From Theory to Real Operating Profit
67
+
68
+ ```
69
+ SGD % of Revenue
70
+ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
71
+ Revenue (OINV Net) 19,228,590 100.0%
72
+ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
73
+ Less: COGS (Historical Cost) -15,492,840 -80.6%
74
+ ─────────── ───────
75
+ [A] Book Gross Profit 3,735,750 +19.4%
76
+ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
77
+ Less: Trading Terms (Promotions) -502,145 -2.6%
78
+ Less: Carriage Outwards (Delivery) -420,798 -2.2%
79
+ Less: Sales Discount -192,784 -1.0%
80
+ Less: Expired Stock -122,889 -0.6%
81
+ Plus: Nestle Subsidy + Commission +1,829,032 +9.5%
82
+ ─────────── ───────
83
+ [B] Commercial Gross Profit 4,326,166 +22.5%
84
+ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
85
+ Less: Bad Debt Provision (180d+ × 50%) -2,175,000 -11.3%
86
+ Less: Inventory Carrying Cost
87
+ (¥1,338K × 8% Cost of Capital) -107,000 -0.6%
88
+ ─────────── ───────
89
+ [C] Real Operating Profit (CFO View) 2,044,166 +10.6%
90
+ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
91
+ ```
92
+
93
+ ### Key Breakdown Insights
94
+
95
+ **Subsidy Dependency Risk Visualization:**
96
+
97
+ ```
98
+ Commercial Gross Profit 22.5%
99
+ ├── Subsidy Contribution: +9.5% ████████████████████████ (42% of Commercial GP)
100
+ └── Core Operations: 13.0% If subsidies disappear, commercial GP drops to 13.0%, real profit margin drops to ~1.1%
101
+ ```
102
+
103
+ **CFO Core Warning:** The company's candy business is economically in "life support" mode via Nestle subsidies. Any subsidy negotiation failure will directly compress real profit to near break-even.
104
+
105
+ ---
106
+
107
+ ## Model 3: Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) + GMROI — Capital Efficiency Diagnosis
108
+
109
+ ### 3.1 CCC Calculation
110
+
111
+ | Metric | Days | Formula |
112
+ |--------|------|---------|
113
+ | DIO (Days Inventory Outstanding) | 31 | (Average Inventory / COGS) × 365 |
114
+ | DSO (Days Sales Outstanding) | 256 | (AR / Revenue) × 365 |
115
+ | DPO (Days Payable Outstanding) | 27 | (AP / COGS) × 365 |
116
+ | **CCC** | **260** | **DIO + DSO - DPO** |
117
+
118
+ **Inventory management is healthy (31 days), but AR severely drags (256 days), resulting in an overall CCC of 260 days.**
119
+
120
+ This means the company has prepaid approximately 8.5 months of funds before receiving payment for this sale.
121
+
122
+ ### 3.2 DSO Structure Breakdown
123
+
124
+ Among the 256-day DSO, export customers (AR ¥10.2M) are the main cause:
125
+
126
+ ```
127
+ Export Customer AR ¥10.2M Distribution:
128
+ 0–30 days (Normal): ¥ 0.7M 7% ██
129
+ 31–90 days (Watch): ¥ 3.5M 35% ████████
130
+ 91–180 days (Warning):¥ 1.0M 10% ███
131
+ 181–365 days (Overdue):¥0.9M 9% ██
132
+ 1–2 years (Bad debt risk):¥0.6M 6% █
133
+ >2 years (Likely bad debt):¥2.9M 28% ███████ ← Main Problem
134
+ ```
135
+
136
+ 43% of export AR is overdue by more than 6 months, with 28% overdue by more than 2 years, mostly concentrated in Wei Jin's Myanmar/Indochina customers.
137
+
138
+ ### 3.3 GMROI (Gross Margin Return on Inventory Investment)
139
+
140
+ ```
141
+ GMROI = Annual Gross Margin ÷ Average Inventory Amount
142
+ = ¥3,735,750 ÷ ¥1,337,863
143
+ = 2.79x
144
+
145
+ Industry Benchmark (FMCG Distribution): 3.0–5.0x
146
+ MTC Current: 2.79x (Below benchmark minimum)
147
+ ```
148
+
149
+ **Interpretation:** For every 1 yuan of inventory invested, 2.79 yuan of gross margin is generated
150
+ **FMCG Industry Standard:** Every 1 yuan of inventory generates 3–5 yuan gross margin
151
+
152
+ **Reasons for low GMROI:**
153
+ - Backlog inventory (Kopiko and other bulk commodities, not generating additional margin but occupying funds)
154
+ - Near-expiry inventory risk (45,558 units expiring within 90 days)
155
+ - High-cost goods (Ferrero, Guylian) not turning fast enough
156
+
157
+ ### 3.4 CCC Optimization Path
158
+
159
+ | Initiative | Impact on CCC | Priority |
160
+ |------------|---------------|----------|
161
+ | Bad debt collection | -60 days | High |
162
+ | AR factoring | -40 days | Medium |
163
+ | Inventory optimization | -10 days | Medium |
164
+ | Supplier payment terms | +5 days | Low |
165
+
166
+ ---
167
+
168
+ ## Model 4: Strategic Focus Simulation — Cut Local vs Expand Export Real P&L Impact
169
+
170
+ ### 4.1 Scenario Comparison
171
+
172
+ | Metric | Cut Local (Scenario A) | Expand Export (Scenario B) | Delta |
173
+ |--------|------------------------|---------------------------|-------|
174
+ | Revenue | ¥17,033,590 | ¥24,719,385 | +¥7,685,795 |
175
+ | Gross Margin | ¥3,296,000 | ¥5,257,000 | +¥1,961,000 |
176
+ | Operating Profit | ¥1,890,000 | ¥2,890,000 | +¥1,000,000 |
177
+ | Profit Margin | 11.1% | 11.7% | +0.6% |
178
+
179
+ ### 4.2 True Characteristics of Both Business Models
180
+
181
+ ```
182
+ Export Brand Distribution Local FMCG Distribution
183
+ ───────────────────────── ─────────────────────
184
+ Customer Count 8–42 200–300+
185
+ Avg Invoice ¥51K–63K ¥2.5K–8K
186
+ Unit Gross Margin *94–97% (口径存疑) *77–97% (口径存疑)
187
+ Absolute Margin/Unit ¥115–260 ¥15–85
188
+ Delivery Cost Low (Container) High (Fragmented, Daily/Weekly)
189
+ TT Share High (Brand needs export) Medium (Local listing fee)
190
+ AR Period Long (Avg 256 days) Short (30–60 days)
191
+ Bad Debt Risk Extreme (Wei Jin case) Minimal
192
+ Subsidy Dependency High Medium
193
+ Cash Recovery Poor Good
194
+
195
+ Core Paradox: Export high unit price creates high margin, but bad debt and
196
+ capital cost almost completely offset
197
+ Local low unit price but high efficiency, true cash flow engine
198
+
199
+ Strategic Conclusion: The two models are not mutually exclusive but complementary —
200
+ Local business is the cash flow engine, export is the profit scale engine.
201
+ The problem is not choosing which, but export must implement strict credit management.
202
+ ```
203
+
204
+ ---
205
+
206
+ ## Model 5: CFO and CEO Decision Q&A
207
+
208
+ ### CFO's 5 Core Questions
209
+
210
+ **Q1: If local business is cut, will profit rise or fall?**
211
+
212
+ Needs recalculation with data. Previous "local SKU-level margin 77–99%" based on STOCK.AvgPrice and OINV Price has cost/pricing口径 issues (§1.5), not reliable. Should first use JE channel-split COGS and revenue to calculate true local channel marginal contribution, then assess gross margin change and operational savings after cutting; cannot assert "must lose money" or "must improve" before completing this calculation.
213
+
214
+ **Q2: If Nestle subsidies reduce by 50%, can we survive?**
215
+
216
+ Barely. 50% subsidy reduction = ¥850K loss, real operating profit drops from ¥2.05M to ~¥1.2M (6.2%), still positive but extremely fragile. If bad debt worsens simultaneously, then losses. Must immediately initiate multi-brand subsidy agreements (Ferrero, Lotte) to diversify risk.
217
+
218
+ **Q3: If bad debt is fully provisioned at once, what's the net asset impact?**
219
+
220
+ Bad debt ¥4.345M at 80% actual loss rate = ¥3.476M (SGD) loss. If total net assets are ~¥20M, one-time recognition would erode ~17%. Need to provision in batches over 2–3 years to smooth impact.
221
+
222
+ **Q4: Is export customer concentration controllable?**
223
+
224
+ Not controllable, and high risk. Wei Jin alone manages Myanmar/Indochina customer base, contributing ~38% of export AR, with these customers accumulating ¥2.78M bad debt. Single salesperson concentrating management of cross-border high-risk customers is a major governance defect. Recommend immediately establishing multi-person cross-coverage and direct company-to-customer contract signing mechanisms.
225
+
226
+ **Q5: Is inventory book-to-physical consistent?**
227
+
228
+ Major doubts exist. KitKat 2F 17g system shows 703,848 units, requiring 131 years to sell at current velocity. Kopiko series multiple SKUs at 66,000–79,000 units each, requiring 13–47 years to sell. Highly suspected unit of measure (case vs piece) error, requiring immediate physical count verification. If true, asset misstatement may affect bank credit assessment.
229
+
230
+ ### CEO's 5 Strategic Questions
231
+
232
+ **Q1: What business should the company actually be in?**
233
+
234
+ Do both, but must clearly separate governance:
235
+ - Export business = profit growth engine, needs strict credit policy protection
236
+ - Local business = cash flow engine, needs MOQ policy to reduce operating costs
237
+
238
+ Cannot manage them together, need to establish independent P&L tracking.
239
+
240
+ **Q2: What if Desmond Tan leaves?**
241
+
242
+ He alone contributes ¥6.14M (31% of candy revenue), serving 8 major export customers. This is unacceptable key person risk. Immediately initiate: dual customer relationship coverage, direct company-to-customer contract signing, Desmond customer information systematization and archiving.
243
+
244
+ **Q3: What happens when Lotte Pepero IP co-branded popularity fades?**
245
+
246
+ Pepero series (Stray Kids/New Jeans) accounts for ~18% of 2025 candy revenue. IP popularity cycle ~6–12 months. Need to establish: IP co-branded purchase volume control (max 6 months inventory), while introducing non-IP standard version (Pepero standard) as long-term stable product.
247
+
248
+ **Q4: Can export expand without increasing bad debt?**
249
+
250
+ Yes, but needs conditions: ① New export customers must use LC (letter of credit) or prepayment; ② Existing Wei Jin customers set credit freeze (no additional exposure); ③ Internal per-customer maximum credit limit (suggest ¥1M export customer single limit). Under this framework, ¥5.49M export expansion can add ¥5.21M profit.
251
+
252
+ **Q5: If nothing changes, what happens in 3 years?**
253
+
254
+ - Subsidy renewal failure probability increases over time
255
+ - Bad debt balance accumulates annually (current ¥4.34M → if another 30% then exceeds ¥5.65M)
256
+ - Inventory backlog continues (tying up capital, increasing expiry losses)
257
+ - CCC 260-day structural problem drags capital efficiency
258
+
259
+ High probability of cash flow crisis or need for shareholder capital increase within 3 years. Must initiate structural reform within next 6 months.
260
+
261
+ ---
262
+
263
+ ## Action Roadmap (Priority Matrix)
264
+
265
+ ```
266
+ Impact
267
+ High │ ② Bad Debt Collection ① Credit Policy Reform
268
+ │ (Urgent/High Impact) (High Impact/Plannable)
269
+
270
+ │ ⑤ Subsidy Renewal ④ Export Scale Expansion
271
+ Mid │ (Urgent/Mid Impact) (Mid-term/High Impact)
272
+
273
+ │ ③ Inventory Disposal ⑥ Local MOQ Policy
274
+ Low │ (Must Do This Week) (Mid-term/Mid Impact)
275
+ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
276
+ Urgent Plannable
277
+ ```
278
+
279
+ ## Appendix: Key Financial Metrics Quick Reference
280
+
281
+ | Metric | Formula | Benchmark | Current |
282
+ |--------|---------|-----------|---------|
283
+ | Gross Margin % | (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue | 15-25% | 19.4% |
284
+ | Operating Margin % | Operating Profit / Revenue | 8-15% | 10.6% |
285
+ | DSO | (AR / Revenue) × 365 | 30-60 days | 256 days |
286
+ | DIO | (Inventory / COGS) × 365 | 20-40 days | 31 days |
287
+ | CCC | DIO + DSO - DPO | 60-100 days | 260 days |
288
+ | GMROI | Gross Margin / Avg Inventory | 3.0-5.0x | 2.79x |
289
+
290
+ ---
291
+
292
+ **Report Version**: v2.1 (Board-Level Profit Restructuring Edition; includes Cost/Pricing口径 Correction Note)
293
+ **Generated**: 2026-03-03
294
+ **Data Source**: ZZZZ_KAIMAYMTC_TEST / SAP B1 HANA
295
+ **Analysis Dimensions**: Financial Profit Bridge · SKU×Channel Matrix (口径存疑) · Cash Conversion Cycle · Strategic Simulation · Decision Q&A