@aida-dev/metrics 0.5.0 → 0.7.0

package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ declare const Attribution: z.ZodObject<{
     commitsTotal: z.ZodNumber;
     ai: z.ZodNumber;
     human: z.ZodNumber;
+    automated: z.ZodNumber;
     unknown: z.ZodNumber;
     coverage: z.ZodNumber;
     defaultAttribution: z.ZodEnum<["ai", "human", "unknown"]>;
@@ -47,6 +48,7 @@ declare const Attribution: z.ZodObject<{
     human: number;
     unknown: number;
     commitsTotal: number;
+    automated: number;
     coverage: number;
     defaultAttribution: "ai" | "human" | "unknown";
     coverageThreshold: number;
@@ -68,6 +70,7 @@ declare const Attribution: z.ZodObject<{
     human: number;
     unknown: number;
     commitsTotal: number;
+    automated: number;
     coverage: number;
     defaultAttribution: "ai" | "human" | "unknown";
     coverageThreshold: number;
@@ -207,6 +210,9 @@ declare const MergeRatio: z.ZodObject<{
 type MergeRatio = z.infer<typeof MergeRatio>;
 declare const Persistence: z.ZodObject<{
     commitsConsidered: z.ZodNumber;
+    filesConsidered: z.ZodNumber;
+    filesExcluded: z.ZodNumber;
+    censored: z.ZodNumber;
     avgDays: z.ZodNumber;
     medianDays: z.ZodNumber;
     buckets: z.ZodObject<{
@@ -230,6 +236,9 @@ declare const Persistence: z.ZodObject<{
     }>;
 }, "strip", z.ZodTypeAny, {
     commitsConsidered: number;
+    filesConsidered: number;
+    filesExcluded: number;
+    censored: number;
     avgDays: number;
     medianDays: number;
     buckets: {
@@ -241,6 +250,9 @@ declare const Persistence: z.ZodObject<{
     };
 }, {
     commitsConsidered: number;
+    filesConsidered: number;
+    filesExcluded: number;
+    censored: number;
     avgDays: number;
     medianDays: number;
     buckets: {
@@ -283,6 +295,9 @@ declare const Baseline: z.ZodObject<{
     }>;
     persistence: z.ZodObject<{
         commitsConsidered: z.ZodNumber;
+        filesConsidered: z.ZodNumber;
+        filesExcluded: z.ZodNumber;
+        censored: z.ZodNumber;
         avgDays: z.ZodNumber;
         medianDays: z.ZodNumber;
         buckets: z.ZodObject<{
@@ -306,6 +321,9 @@ declare const Baseline: z.ZodObject<{
         }>;
     }, "strip", z.ZodTypeAny, {
         commitsConsidered: number;
+        filesConsidered: number;
+        filesExcluded: number;
+        censored: number;
         avgDays: number;
         medianDays: number;
         buckets: {
@@ -317,6 +335,9 @@ declare const Baseline: z.ZodObject<{
         };
     }, {
         commitsConsidered: number;
+        filesConsidered: number;
+        filesExcluded: number;
+        censored: number;
         avgDays: number;
         medianDays: number;
         buckets: {
@@ -335,6 +356,9 @@ declare const Baseline: z.ZodObject<{
     };
     persistence: {
         commitsConsidered: number;
+        filesConsidered: number;
+        filesExcluded: number;
+        censored: number;
         avgDays: number;
         medianDays: number;
         buckets: {
@@ -354,6 +378,9 @@ declare const Baseline: z.ZodObject<{
     };
     persistence: {
         commitsConsidered: number;
+        filesConsidered: number;
+        filesExcluded: number;
+        censored: number;
         avgDays: number;
         medianDays: number;
         buckets: {
@@ -399,6 +426,7 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         commitsTotal: z.ZodNumber;
         ai: z.ZodNumber;
         human: z.ZodNumber;
+        automated: z.ZodNumber;
         unknown: z.ZodNumber;
         coverage: z.ZodNumber;
         defaultAttribution: z.ZodEnum<["ai", "human", "unknown"]>;
@@ -441,6 +469,7 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         human: number;
         unknown: number;
         commitsTotal: number;
+        automated: number;
         coverage: number;
         defaultAttribution: "ai" | "human" | "unknown";
         coverageThreshold: number;
@@ -462,6 +491,7 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         human: number;
         unknown: number;
         commitsTotal: number;
+        automated: number;
         coverage: number;
         defaultAttribution: "ai" | "human" | "unknown";
         coverageThreshold: number;
@@ -494,6 +524,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
     }>;
     persistence: z.ZodObject<{
         commitsConsidered: z.ZodNumber;
+        filesConsidered: z.ZodNumber;
+        filesExcluded: z.ZodNumber;
+        censored: z.ZodNumber;
         avgDays: z.ZodNumber;
         medianDays: z.ZodNumber;
         buckets: z.ZodObject<{
@@ -517,6 +550,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         }>;
     }, "strip", z.ZodTypeAny, {
         commitsConsidered: number;
+        filesConsidered: number;
+        filesExcluded: number;
+        censored: number;
         avgDays: number;
         medianDays: number;
         buckets: {
@@ -528,6 +564,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         };
     }, {
         commitsConsidered: number;
+        filesConsidered: number;
+        filesExcluded: number;
+        censored: number;
         avgDays: number;
         medianDays: number;
         buckets: {
@@ -749,6 +788,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         }>;
         persistence: z.ZodObject<{
             commitsConsidered: z.ZodNumber;
+            filesConsidered: z.ZodNumber;
+            filesExcluded: z.ZodNumber;
+            censored: z.ZodNumber;
             avgDays: z.ZodNumber;
             medianDays: z.ZodNumber;
             buckets: z.ZodObject<{
@@ -772,6 +814,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
             }>;
         }, "strip", z.ZodTypeAny, {
             commitsConsidered: number;
+            filesConsidered: number;
+            filesExcluded: number;
+            censored: number;
             avgDays: number;
             medianDays: number;
             buckets: {
@@ -783,6 +828,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
             };
         }, {
             commitsConsidered: number;
+            filesConsidered: number;
+            filesExcluded: number;
+            censored: number;
             avgDays: number;
             medianDays: number;
             buckets: {
@@ -801,6 +849,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         };
         persistence: {
             commitsConsidered: number;
+            filesConsidered: number;
+            filesExcluded: number;
+            censored: number;
             avgDays: number;
             medianDays: number;
             buckets: {
@@ -820,6 +871,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         };
         persistence: {
             commitsConsidered: number;
+            filesConsidered: number;
+            filesExcluded: number;
+            censored: number;
             avgDays: number;
             medianDays: number;
             buckets: {
@@ -859,6 +913,7 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         human: number;
         unknown: number;
         commitsTotal: number;
+        automated: number;
         coverage: number;
         defaultAttribution: "ai" | "human" | "unknown";
         coverageThreshold: number;
@@ -883,6 +938,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
     };
     persistence: {
         commitsConsidered: number;
+        filesConsidered: number;
+        filesExcluded: number;
+        censored: number;
         avgDays: number;
         medianDays: number;
         buckets: {
@@ -933,6 +991,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         };
         persistence: {
             commitsConsidered: number;
+            filesConsidered: number;
+            filesExcluded: number;
+            censored: number;
             avgDays: number;
             medianDays: number;
             buckets: {
@@ -964,6 +1025,7 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         human: number;
         unknown: number;
         commitsTotal: number;
+        automated: number;
         coverage: number;
         defaultAttribution: "ai" | "human" | "unknown";
         coverageThreshold: number;
@@ -988,6 +1050,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
     };
     persistence: {
         commitsConsidered: number;
+        filesConsidered: number;
+        filesExcluded: number;
+        censored: number;
         avgDays: number;
         medianDays: number;
         buckets: {
@@ -1038,6 +1103,9 @@ declare const Metrics: z.ZodObject<{
         };
         persistence: {
             commitsConsidered: number;
+            filesConsidered: number;
+            filesExcluded: number;
+            censored: number;
             avgDays: number;
             medianDays: number;
             buckets: {
@@ -1066,8 +1134,13 @@ declare function calculateCategoryCounts(commits: Commit[]): CategoryCounts | nu
 declare function calculateMergeRatio(commitStream: CommitStream, isTarget?: (commit: Commit) => boolean): MergeRatio;
 declare function calculateBaselineMergeRatio(commitStream: CommitStream, isTarget?: (commit: Commit) => boolean): CohortMergeRatio;
 
-declare function calculatePersistence(commitStream: CommitStream, isTarget?: (commit: Commit) => boolean): Persistence;
-declare function calculateBaselinePersistence(commitStream: CommitStream, isTarget?: (commit: Commit) => boolean): Persistence;
+declare const DEFAULT_PERSISTENCE_EXCLUDED_CATEGORIES: FileCategory[];
+interface PersistenceOptions {
+    excludeCategories?: FileCategory[];
+    observationEnd?: Date;
+}
+declare function calculatePersistence(commitStream: CommitStream, isTarget?: (commit: Commit) => boolean, options?: PersistenceOptions): Persistence;
+declare function calculateBaselinePersistence(commitStream: CommitStream, isTarget?: (commit: Commit) => boolean, options?: PersistenceOptions): Persistence;
 
 interface MetricsOptions {
     defaultAttribution?: 'ai' | 'human' | 'unknown';
@@ -1075,4 +1148,4 @@ interface MetricsOptions {
 }
 declare function calculateMetrics(commitStream: CommitStream, options?: MetricsOptions): Metrics;
 
-export { AgeStats, Attribution, Baseline, CategoryCounts, CohortContext, CohortMergeRatio, Delta, FileCategory, MergeRatio, Metrics, type MetricsOptions, Persistence, calculateAgeStats, calculateBaselineMergeRatio, calculateBaselinePersistence, calculateCategoryCounts, calculateMergeRatio, calculateMetrics, calculatePersistence, categorizeFile };
+export { AgeStats, Attribution, Baseline, CategoryCounts, CohortContext, CohortMergeRatio, DEFAULT_PERSISTENCE_EXCLUDED_CATEGORIES, Delta, FileCategory, MergeRatio, Metrics, type MetricsOptions, Persistence, type PersistenceOptions, calculateAgeStats, calculateBaselineMergeRatio, calculateBaselinePersistence, calculateCategoryCounts, calculateMergeRatio, calculateMetrics, calculatePersistence, categorizeFile };

package/dist/index.js

@@ -83,77 +83,95 @@ function calculateBaselineMergeRatio(commitStream, isTarget = (commit) => commit
 
 // src/persistence.ts
 import { daysBetween as daysBetween2 } from "@aida-dev/core";
-function calculatePersistence(commitStream, isTarget = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === "ai") {
+var DEFAULT_PERSISTENCE_EXCLUDED_CATEGORIES = [
+  "migrations",
+  "generated"
+];
+function calculatePersistence(commitStream, isTarget = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === "ai", options = {}) {
+  const {
+    excludeCategories = DEFAULT_PERSISTENCE_EXCLUDED_CATEGORIES,
+    observationEnd = new Date(commitStream.generatedAt)
+  } = options;
+  const excluded = new Set(excludeCategories);
   const targetCommits = commitStream.commits.filter(isTarget);
+  const empty = {
+    commitsConsidered: targetCommits.length,
+    filesConsidered: 0,
+    filesExcluded: 0,
+    censored: 0,
+    avgDays: 0,
+    medianDays: 0,
+    buckets: { d0_1: 0, d2_7: 0, d8_30: 0, d31_90: 0, d90_plus: 0 }
+  };
   if (targetCommits.length === 0) {
-    return {
-      commitsConsidered: 0,
-      avgDays: 0,
-      medianDays: 0,
-      buckets: {
-        d0_1: 0,
-        d2_7: 0,
-        d8_30: 0,
-        d31_90: 0,
-        d90_plus: 0
-      }
-    };
+    return { ...empty, commitsConsidered: 0 };
   }
-  const fileLifecycles = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
   const sortedCommits = [...commitStream.commits].sort(
     (a, b) => new Date(a.authorDate).getTime() - new Date(b.authorDate).getTime()
   );
-  for (const commit of sortedCommits) {
-    if (isTarget(commit)) {
-      const commitDate = new Date(commit.authorDate);
-      for (const file of commit.stats.files) {
-        if (!fileLifecycles.has(file.path)) {
-          fileLifecycles.set(file.path, {
-            path: file.path,
-            firstTargetCommitDate: commitDate,
-            lastSeenDate: commitDate,
-            persistenceDays: 0
-          });
-        }
+  const lifecycles = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  let filesExcluded = 0;
+  sortedCommits.forEach((commit, index) => {
+    if (!isTarget(commit)) return;
+    for (const file of commit.stats.files) {
+      if (lifecycles.has(file.path)) continue;
+      if (excluded.has(categorizeFile(file.path))) {
+        filesExcluded++;
+        lifecycles.set(file.path, { firstTargetIndex: -1, firstTargetDate: /* @__PURE__ */ new Date(0), eventDate: null });
+        continue;
       }
+      lifecycles.set(file.path, {
+        firstTargetIndex: index,
+        firstTargetDate: new Date(commit.authorDate),
+        eventDate: null
+      });
     }
-  }
-  for (const commit of sortedCommits) {
-    const commitDate = new Date(commit.authorDate);
+  });
+  sortedCommits.forEach((commit, index) => {
     for (const file of commit.stats.files) {
-      const lifecycle = fileLifecycles.get(file.path);
-      if (lifecycle) {
-        if (file.status !== "deleted") {
-          lifecycle.lastSeenDate = commitDate;
-        }
+      const lifecycle = lifecycles.get(file.path);
+      if (!lifecycle || lifecycle.firstTargetIndex < 0) continue;
+      if (index <= lifecycle.firstTargetIndex) continue;
+      if (lifecycle.eventDate === null) {
+        lifecycle.eventDate = new Date(commit.authorDate);
       }
     }
+  });
+  const survivalDays = [];
+  let censored = 0;
+  for (const lifecycle of lifecycles.values()) {
+    if (lifecycle.firstTargetIndex < 0) continue;
+    if (lifecycle.eventDate) {
+      survivalDays.push(daysBetween2(lifecycle.firstTargetDate, lifecycle.eventDate));
+    } else {
+      censored++;
+      survivalDays.push(Math.max(0, daysBetween2(lifecycle.firstTargetDate, observationEnd)));
+    }
   }
-  const persistenceDays = [];
-  for (const lifecycle of fileLifecycles.values()) {
-    lifecycle.persistenceDays = daysBetween2(lifecycle.firstTargetCommitDate, lifecycle.lastSeenDate);
-    persistenceDays.push(lifecycle.persistenceDays);
+  if (survivalDays.length === 0) {
+    return { ...empty, filesExcluded };
   }
-  const avgDays = persistenceDays.length > 0 ? persistenceDays.reduce((sum, days) => sum + days, 0) / persistenceDays.length : 0;
-  const sortedDays = [...persistenceDays].sort((a, b) => a - b);
-  const medianDays = sortedDays.length > 0 ? sortedDays.length % 2 === 0 ? (sortedDays[sortedDays.length / 2 - 1] + sortedDays[sortedDays.length / 2]) / 2 : sortedDays[Math.floor(sortedDays.length / 2)] : 0;
-  const buckets = {
-    d0_1: persistenceDays.filter((days) => days <= 1).length,
-    d2_7: persistenceDays.filter((days) => days >= 2 && days <= 7).length,
-    d8_30: persistenceDays.filter((days) => days >= 8 && days <= 30).length,
-    d31_90: persistenceDays.filter((days) => days >= 31 && days <= 90).length,
-    d90_plus: persistenceDays.filter((days) => days > 90).length
-  };
+  const avgDays = survivalDays.reduce((sum, days) => sum + days, 0) / survivalDays.length;
+  const sortedDays = [...survivalDays].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  const medianDays = sortedDays.length % 2 === 0 ? (sortedDays[sortedDays.length / 2 - 1] + sortedDays[sortedDays.length / 2]) / 2 : sortedDays[Math.floor(sortedDays.length / 2)];
   return {
     commitsConsidered: targetCommits.length,
+    filesConsidered: survivalDays.length,
+    filesExcluded,
+    censored,
     avgDays: Math.round(avgDays * 100) / 100,
-    // Round to 2 decimal places
     medianDays: Math.round(medianDays * 100) / 100,
-    buckets
+    buckets: {
+      d0_1: survivalDays.filter((days) => days <= 1).length,
+      d2_7: survivalDays.filter((days) => days >= 2 && days <= 7).length,
+      d8_30: survivalDays.filter((days) => days >= 8 && days <= 30).length,
+      d31_90: survivalDays.filter((days) => days >= 31 && days <= 90).length,
+      d90_plus: survivalDays.filter((days) => days > 90).length
+    }
   };
 }
-function calculateBaselinePersistence(commitStream, isTarget = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === "human") {
-  return calculatePersistence(commitStream, isTarget);
+function calculateBaselinePersistence(commitStream, isTarget = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === "human", options = {}) {
+  return calculatePersistence(commitStream, isTarget, options);
 }
 
 // src/schema/metrics.ts
@@ -162,9 +180,12 @@ var Attribution = z.object({
   commitsTotal: z.number().int().nonnegative(),
   ai: z.number().int().nonnegative(),
   human: z.number().int().nonnegative(),
+  // Provenance-known automation (#39): merge commits, bots, manifest-excluded.
+  // Counts toward coverage, joins no cohort, untouched by priors.
+  automated: z.number().int().nonnegative(),
   unknown: z.number().int().nonnegative(),
   coverage: z.number().min(0).max(1),
-  // (ai + human) / total
+  // (ai + human + automated) / total
   defaultAttribution: z.enum(["ai", "human", "unknown"]),
   // prior applied to unknown commits
   coverageThreshold: z.number().min(0).max(1),
@@ -190,6 +211,10 @@ var MergeRatio = z.object({
 });
 var Persistence = z.object({
   commitsConsidered: z.number().int().nonnegative(),
+  filesConsidered: z.number().int().nonnegative(),
+  filesExcluded: z.number().int().nonnegative(),
+  censored: z.number().int().nonnegative(),
+  // files that survived the whole window
   avgDays: z.number().nonnegative(),
   medianDays: z.number().nonnegative(),
   buckets: z.object({
@@ -273,7 +298,7 @@ function round(value, decimals) {
 }
 function calculateMetrics(commitStream, options = {}) {
   const { defaultAttribution = "unknown", coverageThreshold = 0.7 } = options;
-  const counts = { ai: 0, human: 0, unknown: 0 };
+  const counts = { ai: 0, human: 0, automated: 0, unknown: 0 };
   const modes = { none: 0, autocomplete: 0, assisted: 0, agent: 0, unknown: 0 };
   const modeEvidence = { declared: 0, inferred: 0, none: 0 };
   for (const commit of commitStream.commits) {
@@ -282,11 +307,12 @@ function calculateMetrics(commitStream, options = {}) {
     modeEvidence[commit.tags.modeEvidence]++;
   }
   const total = commitStream.commits.length;
-  const coverage = total > 0 ? (counts.ai + counts.human) / total : 0;
+  const coverage = total > 0 ? (counts.ai + counts.human + counts.automated) / total : 0;
   const attribution = {
     commitsTotal: total,
     ai: counts.ai,
     human: counts.human,
+    automated: counts.automated,
     unknown: counts.unknown,
     coverage: round(coverage, 4),
     defaultAttribution,
@@ -295,9 +321,8 @@ function calculateMetrics(commitStream, options = {}) {
     modes,
     modeEvidence
   };
-  const isExcluded = (commit) => commit.tags.sources.includes("manifest:excluded");
-  const isAI = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === "ai" || defaultAttribution === "ai" && commit.tags.attribution === "unknown" && !isExcluded(commit);
-  const isBaseline = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === "human" || defaultAttribution === "human" && commit.tags.attribution === "unknown" && !isExcluded(commit);
+  const isAI = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === "ai" || defaultAttribution === "ai" && commit.tags.attribution === "unknown";
+  const isBaseline = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === "human" || defaultAttribution === "human" && commit.tags.attribution === "unknown";
   const mergeRatio = calculateMergeRatio(commitStream, isAI);
   const persistence = calculatePersistence(commitStream, isAI);
   const now = /* @__PURE__ */ new Date();
@@ -331,6 +356,7 @@ function calculateMetrics(commitStream, options = {}) {
   const caveats = [
     `Attribution coverage is ${(coverage * 100).toFixed(1)}%: metrics only describe commits whose provenance is known.`,
     "Persistence is file-level, not line-level.",
+    "Persistence is survival: days until the first subsequent modification. Files never modified again are censored at collection time. Migrations and generated files (convention-driven lifecycles) are excluded.",
     "Persistence comparisons are only meaningful between cohorts of similar age and task mix \u2014 check the cohorts section before reading the delta.",
     "Merge ratio: commits from all branches checked against default branch ancestry. Squash merges may undercount unmerged commits.",
     "Time-windowed collection (--since) also windows the ancestry check: commits merged into the default branch before the window may appear unmerged.",
@@ -370,6 +396,7 @@ export {
   CategoryCounts,
   CohortContext,
   CohortMergeRatio,
+  DEFAULT_PERSISTENCE_EXCLUDED_CATEGORIES,
   Delta,
   FileCategory,
   MergeRatio,

package/dist/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/index.ts","../src/cohort.ts","../src/merge-ratio.ts","../src/persistence.ts","../src/schema/metrics.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { Commit, CommitStream, formatISODate } from '@aida-dev/core';\nimport { calculateAgeStats, calculateCategoryCounts } from './cohort.js';\nimport { calculateBaselineMergeRatio, calculateMergeRatio } from './merge-ratio.js';\nimport { calculateBaselinePersistence, calculatePersistence } from './persistence.js';\nimport { Attribution, Metrics } from './schema/metrics.js';\n\nexport * from './schema/metrics.js';\nexport * from './cohort.js';\nexport * from './merge-ratio.js';\nexport * from './persistence.js';\n\nexport interface MetricsOptions {\n  // Prior applied to 'unknown' commits: which cohort (if any) they join.\n  defaultAttribution?: 'ai' | 'human' | 'unknown';\n  coverageThreshold?: number;\n}\n\nfunction round(value: number, decimals: number): number {\n  const factor = 10 ** decimals;\n  return Math.round(value * factor) / factor;\n}\n\nexport function calculateMetrics(\n  commitStream: CommitStream,\n  options: MetricsOptions = {}\n): Metrics {\n  const { defaultAttribution = 'unknown', coverageThreshold = 0.7 } = options;\n\n  const counts = { ai: 0, human: 0, unknown: 0 };\n  const modes = { none: 0, autocomplete: 0, assisted: 0, agent: 0, unknown: 0 };\n  const modeEvidence = { declared: 0, inferred: 0, none: 0 };\n  for (const commit of commitStream.commits) {\n    counts[commit.tags.attribution]++;\n    modes[commit.tags.mode]++;\n    modeEvidence[commit.tags.modeEvidence]++;\n  }\n  const total = commitStream.commits.length;\n  const coverage = total > 0 ? (counts.ai + counts.human) / total : 0;\n\n  const attribution: Attribution = {\n    commitsTotal: total,\n    ai: counts.ai,\n    human: counts.human,\n    unknown: counts.unknown,\n    coverage: round(coverage, 4),\n    defaultAttribution,\n    coverageThreshold,\n    belowThreshold: coverage < coverageThreshold,\n    modes,\n    modeEvidence,\n  };\n\n  // Cohort membership: unknown commits join a cohort only via the prior.\n  // Manifest-excluded commits (release bots, merges) never do — they were\n  // excluded precisely to stay out of both cohorts.\n  const isExcluded = (commit: Commit) => commit.tags.sources.includes('manifest:excluded');\n  const isAI = (commit: Commit) =>\n    commit.tags.attribution === 'ai' ||\n    (defaultAttribution === 'ai' && commit.tags.attribution === 'unknown' && !isExcluded(commit));\n  const isBaseline = (commit: Commit) =>\n    commit.tags.attribution === 'human' ||\n    (defaultAttribution === 'human' &&\n      commit.tags.attribution === 'unknown' &&\n      !isExcluded(commit));\n\n  const mergeRatio = calculateMergeRatio(commitStream, isAI);\n  const persistence = calculatePersistence(commitStream, isAI);\n\n  // Fairness context (#29, #36): cohort age and task mix\n  const now = new Date();\n  const aiCommits = commitStream.commits.filter(isAI);\n  const baselineCommits = commitStream.commits.filter(isBaseline);\n  const cohorts = {\n    ai: {\n      age: calculateAgeStats(aiCommits, now),\n      taskMix: calculateCategoryCounts(aiCommits),\n    },\n    baseline: {\n      age: calculateAgeStats(baselineCommits, now),\n      taskMix: calculateCategoryCounts(baselineCommits),\n    },\n  };\n\n  // No baseline cohort → no baseline, no delta. AIDA does not invent a\n  // comparison out of unattributed commits.\n  const baselineSize = baselineCommits.length;\n  const baselineAssumed = defaultAttribution === 'human' && counts.unknown > 0;\n\n  const baseline =\n    baselineSize > 0\n      ? {\n          assumed: baselineAssumed,\n          mergeRatio: calculateBaselineMergeRatio(commitStream, isBaseline),\n          persistence: calculateBaselinePersistence(commitStream, isBaseline),\n        }\n      : null;\n\n  const delta = baseline\n    ? {\n        mergeRatio: round(mergeRatio.mergeRatio - baseline.mergeRatio.mergeRatio, 4),\n        avgPersistenceDays: round(persistence.avgDays - baseline.persistence.avgDays, 2),\n        medianPersistenceDays: round(\n          persistence.medianDays - baseline.persistence.medianDays,\n          2\n        ),\n      }\n    : null;\n\n  const caveats = [\n    `Attribution coverage is ${(coverage * 100).toFixed(1)}%: metrics only describe commits whose provenance is known.`,\n    'Persistence is file-level, not line-level.',\n    'Persistence comparisons are only meaningful between cohorts of similar age and task mix — check the cohorts section before reading the delta.',\n    'Merge ratio: commits from all branches checked against default branch ancestry. Squash merges may undercount unmerged commits.',\n    'Time-windowed collection (--since) also windows the ancestry check: commits merged into the default branch before the window may appear unmerged.',\n    'AI tagging uses heuristic patterns; false positives/negatives possible.',\n  ];\n  if (baseline?.assumed) {\n    caveats.push(\n      `Baseline includes ${counts.unknown} unattributed commit(s) assumed human via defaultAttribution — undetected AI usage may leak into it.`\n    );\n  }\n  if (!baseline) {\n    caveats.push(\n      'No baseline: no commits are attributed as human. Set defaultAttribution to \"human\" in .aida.json if unattributed commits in this repo are human-authored.'\n    );\n  }\n\n  return {\n    generatedAt: formatISODate(new Date()),\n    window: {\n      since: commitStream.since,\n      until: commitStream.until,\n    },\n    repoPath: commitStream.repoPath,\n    defaultBranch: commitStream.defaultBranch,\n    attribution,\n    mergeRatio,\n    persistence,\n    cohorts,\n    baseline,\n    delta,\n    caveats,\n  };\n}\n","import { Commit, daysBetween } from '@aida-dev/core';\nimport { AgeStats, CategoryCounts, FileCategory } from './schema/metrics.js';\n\n// Cohort age (#29): persistence comparisons between cohorts of different\n// ages are misleading — old commits have had more time to accumulate\n// survival. Reporting each cohort's age lets consumers judge fairness.\nexport function calculateAgeStats(commits: Commit[], now: Date): AgeStats | null {\n  if (commits.length === 0) {\n    return null;\n  }\n\n  const ages = commits\n    .map((commit) => daysBetween(new Date(commit.authorDate), now))\n    .sort((a, b) => a - b);\n\n  const avg = ages.reduce((sum, days) => sum + days, 0) / ages.length;\n  const median =\n    ages.length % 2 === 0\n      ? (ages[ages.length / 2 - 1] + ages[ages.length / 2]) / 2\n      : ages[Math.floor(ages.length / 2)];\n\n  return {\n    commits: commits.length,\n    avgAgeDays: Math.round(avg * 100) / 100,\n    medianAgeDays: Math.round(median * 100) / 100,\n  };\n}\n\n// File categorization (#36, step 1): AI is often pointed at boilerplate,\n// tests, and migrations, which survive longer because nobody touches them.\n// Reporting each cohort's category mix shows when an AI-vs-baseline\n// comparison is apples-to-oranges. Order matters: first match wins.\nexport function categorizeFile(path: string): FileCategory {\n  const lower = path.toLowerCase();\n  const base = lower.split('/').pop() ?? lower;\n\n  // Generated artifacts (lockfiles, changelogs, snapshots, build output)\n  if (\n    /^(pnpm-lock\\.yaml|package-lock\\.json|yarn\\.lock|bun\\.lockb?|composer\\.lock|cargo\\.lock|gemfile\\.lock|poetry\\.lock|changelog(\\.[a-z]+)?)$/.test(\n      base\n    ) ||\n    /\\.(snap|min\\.js|min\\.css)$/.test(base) ||\n    /(^|\\/)(dist|build|out|coverage|\\.next|node_modules)\\//.test(lower)\n  ) {\n    return 'generated';\n  }\n\n  if (\n    /(^|\\/)(__tests__|__mocks__|tests?|spec|e2e|cypress)\\//.test(lower) ||\n    /\\.(test|spec)\\.[a-z]+$/.test(base)\n  ) {\n    return 'tests';\n  }\n\n  if (/(^|\\/)migrations?\\//.test(lower)) {\n    return 'migrations';\n  }\n\n  if (/\\.(md|mdx|rst|adoc|txt)$/.test(base) || /(^|\\/)docs?\\//.test(lower)) {\n    return 'docs';\n  }\n\n  if (\n    base.startsWith('.') ||\n    /\\.(json|ya?ml|toml|ini|cfg|conf|env|properties)$/.test(base) ||\n    /\\.config\\.[a-z]+$/.test(base) ||\n    /(^|\\/)(\\.github|\\.circleci|\\.vscode|config)\\//.test(lower) ||\n    /^(dockerfile|makefile|tsconfig.*|eslint.*|prettier.*)/.test(base)\n  ) {\n    return 'config';\n  }\n\n  return 'source';\n}\n\nexport function calculateCategoryCounts(commits: Commit[]): CategoryCounts | null {\n  if (commits.length === 0) {\n    return null;\n  }\n\n  const counts: CategoryCounts = {\n    source: 0,\n    tests: 0,\n    migrations: 0,\n    config: 0,\n    docs: 0,\n    generated: 0,\n  };\n\n  for (const commit of commits) {\n    for (const file of commit.stats.files) {\n      counts[categorizeFile(file.path)]++;\n    }\n  }\n\n  return counts;\n}\n","import { Commit, CommitStream } from '@aida-dev/core';\nimport { CohortMergeRatio, MergeRatio } from './schema/metrics.js';\n\nfunction computeMergeRatio(commits: Commit[]): CohortMergeRatio {\n  const merged = commits.filter((commit) => commit.inDefaultBranchAncestry);\n\n  return {\n    commitsTotal: commits.length,\n    commitsMerged: merged.length,\n    mergeRatio: commits.length > 0 ? merged.length / commits.length : 0,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function calculateMergeRatio(\n  commitStream: CommitStream,\n  isTarget: (commit: Commit) => boolean = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === 'ai'\n): MergeRatio {\n  const aiCommits = commitStream.commits.filter(isTarget);\n  const result = computeMergeRatio(aiCommits);\n\n  return {\n    aiCommitsTotal: result.commitsTotal,\n    aiCommitsMerged: result.commitsMerged,\n    mergeRatio: result.mergeRatio,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function calculateBaselineMergeRatio(\n  commitStream: CommitStream,\n  isTarget: (commit: Commit) => boolean = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === 'human'\n): CohortMergeRatio {\n  const baselineCommits = commitStream.commits.filter(isTarget);\n  return computeMergeRatio(baselineCommits);\n}\n","import { Commit, CommitStream, daysBetween } from '@aida-dev/core';\nimport { Persistence } from './schema/metrics.js';\n\ninterface FileLifecycle {\n  path: string;\n  firstTargetCommitDate: Date;\n  lastSeenDate: Date;\n  persistenceDays: number;\n}\n\nexport function calculatePersistence(\n  commitStream: CommitStream,\n  isTarget: (commit: Commit) => boolean = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === 'ai'\n): Persistence {\n  const targetCommits = commitStream.commits.filter(isTarget);\n\n  if (targetCommits.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      commitsConsidered: 0,\n      avgDays: 0,\n      medianDays: 0,\n      buckets: {\n        d0_1: 0,\n        d2_7: 0,\n        d8_30: 0,\n        d31_90: 0,\n        d90_plus: 0,\n      },\n    };\n  }\n\n  // Group files by path and track their lifecycle\n  const fileLifecycles = new Map<string, FileLifecycle>();\n\n  // Sort commits by date (oldest first)\n  const sortedCommits = [...commitStream.commits].sort(\n    (a, b) => new Date(a.authorDate).getTime() - new Date(b.authorDate).getTime()\n  );\n\n  // Track first target commit per file\n  for (const commit of sortedCommits) {\n    if (isTarget(commit)) {\n      const commitDate = new Date(commit.authorDate);\n\n      for (const file of commit.stats.files) {\n        if (!fileLifecycles.has(file.path)) {\n          fileLifecycles.set(file.path, {\n            path: file.path,\n            firstTargetCommitDate: commitDate,\n            lastSeenDate: commitDate,\n            persistenceDays: 0,\n          });\n        }\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Track last seen date for each file\n  for (const commit of sortedCommits) {\n    const commitDate = new Date(commit.authorDate);\n\n    for (const file of commit.stats.files) {\n      const lifecycle = fileLifecycles.get(file.path);\n      if (lifecycle) {\n        // Update last seen date if file is not deleted\n        if (file.status !== 'deleted') {\n          lifecycle.lastSeenDate = commitDate;\n        }\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Calculate persistence days for each file\n  const persistenceDays: number[] = [];\n\n  for (const lifecycle of fileLifecycles.values()) {\n    lifecycle.persistenceDays = daysBetween(lifecycle.firstTargetCommitDate, lifecycle.lastSeenDate);\n    persistenceDays.push(lifecycle.persistenceDays);\n  }\n\n  // Calculate statistics\n  const avgDays =\n    persistenceDays.length > 0\n      ? persistenceDays.reduce((sum, days) => sum + days, 0) / persistenceDays.length\n      : 0;\n\n  const sortedDays = [...persistenceDays].sort((a, b) => a - b);\n  const medianDays =\n    sortedDays.length > 0\n      ? sortedDays.length % 2 === 0\n        ? (sortedDays[sortedDays.length / 2 - 1] + sortedDays[sortedDays.length / 2]) / 2\n        : sortedDays[Math.floor(sortedDays.length / 2)]\n      : 0;\n\n  // Calculate buckets\n  const buckets = {\n    d0_1: persistenceDays.filter((days) => days <= 1).length,\n    d2_7: persistenceDays.filter((days) => days >= 2 && days <= 7).length,\n    d8_30: persistenceDays.filter((days) => days >= 8 && days <= 30).length,\n    d31_90: persistenceDays.filter((days) => days >= 31 && days <= 90).length,\n    d90_plus: persistenceDays.filter((days) => days > 90).length,\n  };\n\n  return {\n    commitsConsidered: targetCommits.length,\n    avgDays: Math.round(avgDays * 100) / 100, // Round to 2 decimal places\n    medianDays: Math.round(medianDays * 100) / 100,\n    buckets,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function calculateBaselinePersistence(\n  commitStream: CommitStream,\n  isTarget: (commit: Commit) => boolean = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === 'human'\n): Persistence {\n  return calculatePersistence(commitStream, isTarget);\n}\n","import { z } from 'zod';\n\n// Attribution coverage (#34): the headline metric. Every other number in this\n// file is only as trustworthy as this block says it is.\nexport const Attribution = z.object({\n  commitsTotal: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  ai: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  human: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  unknown: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  coverage: z.number().min(0).max(1), // (ai + human) / total\n  defaultAttribution: z.enum(['ai', 'human', 'unknown']), // prior applied to unknown commits\n  coverageThreshold: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n  belowThreshold: z.boolean(),\n  // Autonomy axis (#25): commit counts per mode and per mode-evidence level\n  modes: z.object({\n    none: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    autocomplete: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    assisted: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    agent: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    unknown: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  }),\n  modeEvidence: z.object({\n    declared: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    inferred: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    none: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  }),\n});\n\nexport const MergeRatio = z.object({\n  aiCommitsTotal: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  aiCommitsMerged: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  mergeRatio: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n});\n\nexport const Persistence = z.object({\n  commitsConsidered: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  avgDays: z.number().nonnegative(),\n  medianDays: z.number().nonnegative(),\n  buckets: z.object({\n    d0_1: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    d2_7: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    d8_30: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    d31_90: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    d90_plus: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  }),\n});\n\n// Cohort age (#29): context for judging whether a persistence comparison\n// between cohorts is fair — older cohorts accumulate survival by default.\nexport const AgeStats = z.object({\n  commits: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  avgAgeDays: z.number().nonnegative(),\n  medianAgeDays: z.number().nonnegative(),\n});\n\n// Task mix (#36): what kind of files each cohort touched. A persistence\n// comparison is only meaningful when the mixes are similar.\nexport const FileCategory = z.enum([\n  'source',\n  'tests',\n  'migrations',\n  'config',\n  'docs',\n  'generated',\n]);\n\nexport const CategoryCounts = z.object({\n  source: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  tests: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  migrations: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  config: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  docs: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  generated: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n});\n\nexport const CohortContext = z.object({\n  age: AgeStats.nullable(),\n  taskMix: CategoryCounts.nullable(),\n});\n\nexport const CohortMergeRatio = z.object({\n  commitsTotal: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  commitsMerged: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  mergeRatio: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n});\n\nexport const Baseline = z.object({\n  // True when the cohort includes 'unknown' commits via defaultAttribution:\n  // the baseline is an assumption, not observed attribution.\n  assumed: z.boolean(),\n  mergeRatio: CohortMergeRatio,\n  persistence: Persistence,\n});\n\nexport const Delta = z.object({\n  mergeRatio: z.number(),\n  avgPersistenceDays: z.number(),\n  medianPersistenceDays: z.number(),\n});\n\nexport const Metrics = z.object({\n  generatedAt: z.string().datetime(),\n  window: z.object({\n    since: z.string().optional(),\n    until: z.string().optional(),\n  }),\n  repoPath: z.string(),\n  defaultBranch: z.string(),\n  attribution: Attribution,\n  mergeRatio: MergeRatio,\n  persistence: Persistence,\n  // Fairness context (#29, #36): age and task mix per cohort, so consumers\n  // can judge whether the AI-vs-baseline comparison is apples-to-apples.\n  cohorts: z.object({\n    ai: CohortContext,\n    baseline: CohortContext,\n  }),\n  // Null when no commit is attributed 'human' and no defaultAttribution prior\n  // assigns the unknowns: AIDA does not invent a comparison cohort.\n  baseline: Baseline.nullable(),\n  delta: Delta.nullable(),\n  caveats: z.array(z.string()),\n});\n\nexport type Attribution = z.infer<typeof Attribution>;\nexport type AgeStats = z.infer<typeof AgeStats>;\nexport type FileCategory = z.infer<typeof FileCategory>;\nexport type CategoryCounts = z.infer<typeof CategoryCounts>;\nexport type CohortContext = z.infer<typeof CohortContext>;\nexport type MergeRatio = z.infer<typeof MergeRatio>;\nexport type Persistence = z.infer<typeof Persistence>;\nexport type CohortMergeRatio = z.infer<typeof CohortMergeRatio>;\nexport type Baseline = z.infer<typeof Baseline>;\nexport type Delta = z.infer<typeof Delta>;\nexport type Metrics = z.infer<typeof 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+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/index.ts","../src/cohort.ts","../src/merge-ratio.ts","../src/persistence.ts","../src/schema/metrics.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { Commit, CommitStream, formatISODate } from '@aida-dev/core';\nimport { calculateAgeStats, calculateCategoryCounts } from './cohort.js';\nimport { calculateBaselineMergeRatio, calculateMergeRatio } from './merge-ratio.js';\nimport { calculateBaselinePersistence, calculatePersistence } from './persistence.js';\nimport { Attribution, Metrics } from './schema/metrics.js';\n\nexport * from './schema/metrics.js';\nexport * from './cohort.js';\nexport * from './merge-ratio.js';\nexport * from './persistence.js';\n\nexport interface MetricsOptions {\n  // Prior applied to 'unknown' commits: which cohort (if any) they join.\n  defaultAttribution?: 'ai' | 'human' | 'unknown';\n  coverageThreshold?: number;\n}\n\nfunction round(value: number, decimals: number): number {\n  const factor = 10 ** decimals;\n  return Math.round(value * factor) / factor;\n}\n\nexport function calculateMetrics(\n  commitStream: CommitStream,\n  options: MetricsOptions = {}\n): Metrics {\n  const { defaultAttribution = 'unknown', coverageThreshold = 0.7 } = options;\n\n  const counts = { ai: 0, human: 0, automated: 0, unknown: 0 };\n  const modes = { none: 0, autocomplete: 0, assisted: 0, agent: 0, unknown: 0 };\n  const modeEvidence = { declared: 0, inferred: 0, none: 0 };\n  for (const commit of commitStream.commits) {\n    counts[commit.tags.attribution]++;\n    modes[commit.tags.mode]++;\n    modeEvidence[commit.tags.modeEvidence]++;\n  }\n  const total = commitStream.commits.length;\n  // Automated commits have known provenance (#39): they count as covered\n  const coverage = total > 0 ? (counts.ai + counts.human + counts.automated) / total : 0;\n\n  const attribution: Attribution = {\n    commitsTotal: total,\n    ai: counts.ai,\n    human: counts.human,\n    automated: counts.automated,\n    unknown: counts.unknown,\n    coverage: round(coverage, 4),\n    defaultAttribution,\n    coverageThreshold,\n    belowThreshold: coverage < coverageThreshold,\n    modes,\n    modeEvidence,\n  };\n\n  // Cohort membership: unknown commits join a cohort only via the prior.\n  // 'automated' is its own state (#39): it joins no cohort and priors never\n  // touch it — automation is not authored code.\n  const isAI = (commit: Commit) =>\n    commit.tags.attribution === 'ai' ||\n    (defaultAttribution === 'ai' && commit.tags.attribution === 'unknown');\n  const isBaseline = (commit: Commit) =>\n    commit.tags.attribution === 'human' ||\n    (defaultAttribution === 'human' && commit.tags.attribution === 'unknown');\n\n  const mergeRatio = calculateMergeRatio(commitStream, isAI);\n  const persistence = calculatePersistence(commitStream, isAI);\n\n  // Fairness context (#29, #36): cohort age and task mix\n  const now = new Date();\n  const aiCommits = commitStream.commits.filter(isAI);\n  const baselineCommits = commitStream.commits.filter(isBaseline);\n  const cohorts = {\n    ai: {\n      age: calculateAgeStats(aiCommits, now),\n      taskMix: calculateCategoryCounts(aiCommits),\n    },\n    baseline: {\n      age: calculateAgeStats(baselineCommits, now),\n      taskMix: calculateCategoryCounts(baselineCommits),\n    },\n  };\n\n  // No baseline cohort → no baseline, no delta. AIDA does not invent a\n  // comparison out of unattributed commits.\n  const baselineSize = baselineCommits.length;\n  const baselineAssumed = defaultAttribution === 'human' && counts.unknown > 0;\n\n  const baseline =\n    baselineSize > 0\n      ? {\n          assumed: baselineAssumed,\n          mergeRatio: calculateBaselineMergeRatio(commitStream, isBaseline),\n          persistence: calculateBaselinePersistence(commitStream, isBaseline),\n        }\n      : null;\n\n  const delta = baseline\n    ? {\n        mergeRatio: round(mergeRatio.mergeRatio - baseline.mergeRatio.mergeRatio, 4),\n        avgPersistenceDays: round(persistence.avgDays - baseline.persistence.avgDays, 2),\n        medianPersistenceDays: round(\n          persistence.medianDays - baseline.persistence.medianDays,\n          2\n        ),\n      }\n    : null;\n\n  const caveats = [\n    `Attribution coverage is ${(coverage * 100).toFixed(1)}%: metrics only describe commits whose provenance is known.`,\n    'Persistence is file-level, not line-level.',\n    'Persistence is survival: days until the first subsequent modification. Files never modified again are censored at collection time. Migrations and generated files (convention-driven lifecycles) are excluded.',\n    'Persistence comparisons are only meaningful between cohorts of similar age and task mix — check the cohorts section before reading the delta.',\n    'Merge ratio: commits from all branches checked against default branch ancestry. Squash merges may undercount unmerged commits.',\n    'Time-windowed collection (--since) also windows the ancestry check: commits merged into the default branch before the window may appear unmerged.',\n    'AI tagging uses heuristic patterns; false positives/negatives possible.',\n  ];\n  if (baseline?.assumed) {\n    caveats.push(\n      `Baseline includes ${counts.unknown} unattributed commit(s) assumed human via defaultAttribution — undetected AI usage may leak into it.`\n    );\n  }\n  if (!baseline) {\n    caveats.push(\n      'No baseline: no commits are attributed as human. Set defaultAttribution to \"human\" in .aida.json if unattributed commits in this repo are human-authored.'\n    );\n  }\n\n  return {\n    generatedAt: formatISODate(new Date()),\n    window: {\n      since: commitStream.since,\n      until: commitStream.until,\n    },\n    repoPath: commitStream.repoPath,\n    defaultBranch: commitStream.defaultBranch,\n    attribution,\n    mergeRatio,\n    persistence,\n    cohorts,\n    baseline,\n    delta,\n    caveats,\n  };\n}\n","import { Commit, daysBetween } from '@aida-dev/core';\nimport { AgeStats, CategoryCounts, FileCategory } from './schema/metrics.js';\n\n// Cohort age (#29): persistence comparisons between cohorts of different\n// ages are misleading — old commits have had more time to accumulate\n// survival. Reporting each cohort's age lets consumers judge fairness.\nexport function calculateAgeStats(commits: Commit[], now: Date): AgeStats | null {\n  if (commits.length === 0) {\n    return null;\n  }\n\n  const ages = commits\n    .map((commit) => daysBetween(new Date(commit.authorDate), now))\n    .sort((a, b) => a - b);\n\n  const avg = ages.reduce((sum, days) => sum + days, 0) / ages.length;\n  const median =\n    ages.length % 2 === 0\n      ? (ages[ages.length / 2 - 1] + ages[ages.length / 2]) / 2\n      : ages[Math.floor(ages.length / 2)];\n\n  return {\n    commits: commits.length,\n    avgAgeDays: Math.round(avg * 100) / 100,\n    medianAgeDays: Math.round(median * 100) / 100,\n  };\n}\n\n// File categorization (#36, step 1): AI is often pointed at boilerplate,\n// tests, and migrations, which survive longer because nobody touches them.\n// Reporting each cohort's category mix shows when an AI-vs-baseline\n// comparison is apples-to-oranges. Order matters: first match wins.\nexport function categorizeFile(path: string): FileCategory {\n  const lower = path.toLowerCase();\n  const base = lower.split('/').pop() ?? lower;\n\n  // Generated artifacts (lockfiles, changelogs, snapshots, build output)\n  if (\n    /^(pnpm-lock\\.yaml|package-lock\\.json|yarn\\.lock|bun\\.lockb?|composer\\.lock|cargo\\.lock|gemfile\\.lock|poetry\\.lock|changelog(\\.[a-z]+)?)$/.test(\n      base\n    ) ||\n    /\\.(snap|min\\.js|min\\.css)$/.test(base) ||\n    /(^|\\/)(dist|build|out|coverage|\\.next|node_modules)\\//.test(lower)\n  ) {\n    return 'generated';\n  }\n\n  if (\n    /(^|\\/)(__tests__|__mocks__|tests?|spec|e2e|cypress)\\//.test(lower) ||\n    /\\.(test|spec)\\.[a-z]+$/.test(base)\n  ) {\n    return 'tests';\n  }\n\n  if (/(^|\\/)migrations?\\//.test(lower)) {\n    return 'migrations';\n  }\n\n  if (/\\.(md|mdx|rst|adoc|txt)$/.test(base) || /(^|\\/)docs?\\//.test(lower)) {\n    return 'docs';\n  }\n\n  if (\n    base.startsWith('.') ||\n    /\\.(json|ya?ml|toml|ini|cfg|conf|env|properties)$/.test(base) ||\n    /\\.config\\.[a-z]+$/.test(base) ||\n    /(^|\\/)(\\.github|\\.circleci|\\.vscode|config)\\//.test(lower) ||\n    /^(dockerfile|makefile|tsconfig.*|eslint.*|prettier.*)/.test(base)\n  ) {\n    return 'config';\n  }\n\n  return 'source';\n}\n\nexport function calculateCategoryCounts(commits: Commit[]): CategoryCounts | null {\n  if (commits.length === 0) {\n    return null;\n  }\n\n  const counts: CategoryCounts = {\n    source: 0,\n    tests: 0,\n    migrations: 0,\n    config: 0,\n    docs: 0,\n    generated: 0,\n  };\n\n  for (const commit of commits) {\n    for (const file of commit.stats.files) {\n      counts[categorizeFile(file.path)]++;\n    }\n  }\n\n  return counts;\n}\n","import { Commit, CommitStream } from '@aida-dev/core';\nimport { CohortMergeRatio, MergeRatio } from './schema/metrics.js';\n\nfunction computeMergeRatio(commits: Commit[]): CohortMergeRatio {\n  const merged = commits.filter((commit) => commit.inDefaultBranchAncestry);\n\n  return {\n    commitsTotal: commits.length,\n    commitsMerged: merged.length,\n    mergeRatio: commits.length > 0 ? merged.length / commits.length : 0,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function calculateMergeRatio(\n  commitStream: CommitStream,\n  isTarget: (commit: Commit) => boolean = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === 'ai'\n): MergeRatio {\n  const aiCommits = commitStream.commits.filter(isTarget);\n  const result = computeMergeRatio(aiCommits);\n\n  return {\n    aiCommitsTotal: result.commitsTotal,\n    aiCommitsMerged: result.commitsMerged,\n    mergeRatio: result.mergeRatio,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function calculateBaselineMergeRatio(\n  commitStream: CommitStream,\n  isTarget: (commit: Commit) => boolean = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === 'human'\n): CohortMergeRatio {\n  const baselineCommits = commitStream.commits.filter(isTarget);\n  return computeMergeRatio(baselineCommits);\n}\n","import { Commit, CommitStream, daysBetween } from '@aida-dev/core';\nimport { categorizeFile } from './cohort.js';\nimport { FileCategory, Persistence } from './schema/metrics.js';\n\n// Categories whose lifecycle is governed by convention, not code quality:\n// migrations are append-only (never modified once applied), generated files\n// (lockfiles, changelogs) churn on every release regardless of author.\n// Either way their survival carries no signal, so they are excluded from\n// persistence by default. They still appear in the task-mix table.\nexport const DEFAULT_PERSISTENCE_EXCLUDED_CATEGORIES: FileCategory[] = [\n  'migrations',\n  'generated',\n];\n\nexport interface PersistenceOptions {\n  excludeCategories?: FileCategory[];\n  // End of the observation window, used to measure censored files (never\n  // modified again). Defaults to the stream's collection time.\n  observationEnd?: Date;\n}\n\ninterface FileLifecycle {\n  firstTargetIndex: number;\n  firstTargetDate: Date;\n  // Set when a later commit modifies or deletes the file: survival ends\n  eventDate: Date | null;\n}\n\n// Persistence = survival: days from the first target-cohort touch of a file\n// until the FIRST subsequent modification (or deletion) by any commit.\n// Files never touched again are censored at the observation end — they\n// survived the whole window, which is the best possible outcome, not zero.\nexport function calculatePersistence(\n  commitStream: CommitStream,\n  isTarget: (commit: Commit) => boolean = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === 'ai',\n  options: PersistenceOptions = {}\n): Persistence {\n  const {\n    excludeCategories = DEFAULT_PERSISTENCE_EXCLUDED_CATEGORIES,\n    observationEnd = new Date(commitStream.generatedAt),\n  } = options;\n  const excluded = new Set<FileCategory>(excludeCategories);\n\n  const targetCommits = commitStream.commits.filter(isTarget);\n\n  const empty: Persistence = {\n    commitsConsidered: targetCommits.length,\n    filesConsidered: 0,\n    filesExcluded: 0,\n    censored: 0,\n    avgDays: 0,\n    medianDays: 0,\n    buckets: { d0_1: 0, d2_7: 0, d8_30: 0, d31_90: 0, d90_plus: 0 },\n  };\n\n  if (targetCommits.length === 0) {\n    return { ...empty, commitsConsidered: 0 };\n  }\n\n  // Sort commits by date (oldest first)\n  const sortedCommits = [...commitStream.commits].sort(\n    (a, b) => new Date(a.authorDate).getTime() - new Date(b.authorDate).getTime()\n  );\n\n  // First target-cohort touch per file\n  const lifecycles = new Map<string, FileLifecycle>();\n  let filesExcluded = 0;\n  sortedCommits.forEach((commit, index) => {\n    if (!isTarget(commit)) return;\n    for (const file of commit.stats.files) {\n      if (lifecycles.has(file.path)) continue;\n      if (excluded.has(categorizeFile(file.path))) {\n        filesExcluded++;\n        lifecycles.set(file.path, { firstTargetIndex: -1, firstTargetDate: new Date(0), eventDate: null });\n        continue;\n      }\n      lifecycles.set(file.path, {\n        firstTargetIndex: index,\n        firstTargetDate: new Date(commit.authorDate),\n        eventDate: null,\n      });\n    }\n  });\n\n  // First subsequent modification (or deletion) ends the survival clock\n  sortedCommits.forEach((commit, index) => {\n    for (const file of commit.stats.files) {\n      const lifecycle = lifecycles.get(file.path);\n      if (!lifecycle || lifecycle.firstTargetIndex < 0) continue; // excluded category\n      if (index <= lifecycle.firstTargetIndex) continue; // not later than first touch\n      if (lifecycle.eventDate === null) {\n        lifecycle.eventDate = new Date(commit.authorDate);\n      }\n    }\n  });\n\n  const survivalDays: number[] = [];\n  let censored = 0;\n  for (const lifecycle of lifecycles.values()) {\n    if (lifecycle.firstTargetIndex < 0) continue; // excluded category\n    if (lifecycle.eventDate) {\n      survivalDays.push(daysBetween(lifecycle.firstTargetDate, lifecycle.eventDate));\n    } else {\n      // Never modified again: survived to the end of the observation window\n      censored++;\n      survivalDays.push(Math.max(0, daysBetween(lifecycle.firstTargetDate, observationEnd)));\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (survivalDays.length === 0) {\n    return { ...empty, filesExcluded };\n  }\n\n  const avgDays = survivalDays.reduce((sum, days) => sum + days, 0) / survivalDays.length;\n  const sortedDays = [...survivalDays].sort((a, b) => a - b);\n  const medianDays =\n    sortedDays.length % 2 === 0\n      ? (sortedDays[sortedDays.length / 2 - 1] + sortedDays[sortedDays.length / 2]) / 2\n      : sortedDays[Math.floor(sortedDays.length / 2)];\n\n  return {\n    commitsConsidered: targetCommits.length,\n    filesConsidered: survivalDays.length,\n    filesExcluded,\n    censored,\n    avgDays: Math.round(avgDays * 100) / 100,\n    medianDays: Math.round(medianDays * 100) / 100,\n    buckets: {\n      d0_1: survivalDays.filter((days) => days <= 1).length,\n      d2_7: survivalDays.filter((days) => days >= 2 && days <= 7).length,\n      d8_30: survivalDays.filter((days) => days >= 8 && days <= 30).length,\n      d31_90: survivalDays.filter((days) => days >= 31 && days <= 90).length,\n      d90_plus: survivalDays.filter((days) => days > 90).length,\n    },\n  };\n}\n\nexport function calculateBaselinePersistence(\n  commitStream: CommitStream,\n  isTarget: (commit: Commit) => boolean = (commit) => commit.tags.attribution === 'human',\n  options: PersistenceOptions = {}\n): Persistence {\n  return calculatePersistence(commitStream, isTarget, options);\n}\n","import { z } from 'zod';\n\n// Attribution coverage (#34): the headline metric. Every other number in this\n// file is only as trustworthy as this block says it is.\nexport const Attribution = z.object({\n  commitsTotal: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  ai: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  human: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  // Provenance-known automation (#39): merge commits, bots, manifest-excluded.\n  // Counts toward coverage, joins no cohort, untouched by priors.\n  automated: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  unknown: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  coverage: z.number().min(0).max(1), // (ai + human + automated) / total\n  defaultAttribution: z.enum(['ai', 'human', 'unknown']), // prior applied to unknown commits\n  coverageThreshold: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n  belowThreshold: z.boolean(),\n  // Autonomy axis (#25): commit counts per mode and per mode-evidence level\n  modes: z.object({\n    none: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    autocomplete: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    assisted: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    agent: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    unknown: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  }),\n  modeEvidence: z.object({\n    declared: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    inferred: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    none: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  }),\n});\n\nexport const MergeRatio = z.object({\n  aiCommitsTotal: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  aiCommitsMerged: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  mergeRatio: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n});\n\n// Persistence = survival: days from first target-cohort touch of a file to\n// the first subsequent modification. Files never modified again are censored\n// at the observation end (they survived the window — the best outcome).\n// Migrations and generated files are excluded by default: their lifecycle is\n// convention-driven and carries no quality signal.\nexport const Persistence = z.object({\n  commitsConsidered: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  filesConsidered: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  filesExcluded: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  censored: z.number().int().nonnegative(), // files that survived the whole window\n  avgDays: z.number().nonnegative(),\n  medianDays: z.number().nonnegative(),\n  buckets: z.object({\n    d0_1: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    d2_7: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    d8_30: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    d31_90: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n    d90_plus: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  }),\n});\n\n// Cohort age (#29): context for judging whether a persistence comparison\n// between cohorts is fair — older cohorts accumulate survival by default.\nexport const AgeStats = z.object({\n  commits: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  avgAgeDays: z.number().nonnegative(),\n  medianAgeDays: z.number().nonnegative(),\n});\n\n// Task mix (#36): what kind of files each cohort touched. A persistence\n// comparison is only meaningful when the mixes are similar.\nexport const FileCategory = z.enum([\n  'source',\n  'tests',\n  'migrations',\n  'config',\n  'docs',\n  'generated',\n]);\n\nexport const CategoryCounts = z.object({\n  source: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  tests: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  migrations: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  config: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  docs: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  generated: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n});\n\nexport const CohortContext = z.object({\n  age: AgeStats.nullable(),\n  taskMix: CategoryCounts.nullable(),\n});\n\nexport const CohortMergeRatio = z.object({\n  commitsTotal: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  commitsMerged: z.number().int().nonnegative(),\n  mergeRatio: z.number().min(0).max(1),\n});\n\nexport const Baseline = z.object({\n  // True when the cohort includes 'unknown' commits via defaultAttribution:\n  // the baseline is an assumption, not observed attribution.\n  assumed: z.boolean(),\n  mergeRatio: CohortMergeRatio,\n  persistence: Persistence,\n});\n\nexport const Delta = z.object({\n  mergeRatio: z.number(),\n  avgPersistenceDays: z.number(),\n  medianPersistenceDays: z.number(),\n});\n\nexport const Metrics = z.object({\n  generatedAt: z.string().datetime(),\n  window: z.object({\n    since: z.string().optional(),\n    until: z.string().optional(),\n  }),\n  repoPath: z.string(),\n  defaultBranch: z.string(),\n  attribution: Attribution,\n  mergeRatio: MergeRatio,\n  persistence: Persistence,\n  // Fairness context (#29, #36): age and task mix per cohort, so consumers\n  // can judge whether the AI-vs-baseline comparison is apples-to-apples.\n  cohorts: z.object({\n    ai: CohortContext,\n    baseline: CohortContext,\n  }),\n  // Null when no commit is attributed 'human' and no defaultAttribution prior\n  // assigns the unknowns: AIDA does not invent a comparison cohort.\n  baseline: Baseline.nullable(),\n  delta: Delta.nullable(),\n  caveats: z.array(z.string()),\n});\n\nexport type Attribution = z.infer<typeof Attribution>;\nexport type AgeStats = z.infer<typeof AgeStats>;\nexport type FileCategory = z.infer<typeof FileCategory>;\nexport type CategoryCounts = z.infer<typeof CategoryCounts>;\nexport type CohortContext = z.infer<typeof CohortContext>;\nexport type MergeRatio = z.infer<typeof MergeRatio>;\nexport type Persistence = z.infer<typeof Persistence>;\nexport type CohortMergeRatio = z.infer<typeof CohortMergeRatio>;\nexport type Baseline = z.infer<typeof Baseline>;\nexport type Delta = z.infer<typeof Delta>;\nexport type Metrics = z.infer<typeof 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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@aida-dev/metrics",
-  "version": "0.5.0",
+  "version": "0.7.0",
   "description": "Metrics engine for AIDA (AI Development Accounting) - Merge ratio, persistence, and AI impact analysis",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "dist/index.js",
@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@
   ],
   "dependencies": {
     "zod": "^3.22.4",
-    "@aida-dev/core": "0.10.0"
+    "@aida-dev/core": "0.11.0"
   },
   "devDependencies": {
     "tsup": "^8.0.0",