@aibvf/core 0.5.0 → 0.6.0

package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ export { validate } from './validate.js';
 export { score, recommendImprovements, calculatePaceLayerDrag, estimatePillars, resolvePillars, BASE_RATES, IND_MULT, TIER_ADJ, READINESS_CAPTURE, PACE_DRAG_RATE, } from './score.js';
 export { diagnoseProcess, BRAIN_VERSION, EVIDENCE, FUNCTION_MEDIANS, } from './diagnose.js';
 export { buildChangePlan } from './changePlan.js';
+export { inferReadiness } from './inferReadiness.js';
 export { bvfSchema } from './schema.js';
 export { INDUSTRIES, FUNCTIONS, AI_TIERS, READINESS, INDUSTRY_LABEL, FUNCTION_LABEL, TIER_LABEL } from './taxonomy.js';
 export type * from './types.js';

package/dist/index.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/index.js

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ export { validate } from './validate.js';
 export { score, recommendImprovements, calculatePaceLayerDrag, estimatePillars, resolvePillars, BASE_RATES, IND_MULT, TIER_ADJ, READINESS_CAPTURE, PACE_DRAG_RATE, } from './score.js';
 export { diagnoseProcess, BRAIN_VERSION, EVIDENCE, FUNCTION_MEDIANS, } from './diagnose.js';
 export { buildChangePlan } from './changePlan.js';
+export { inferReadiness } from './inferReadiness.js';
 export { bvfSchema } from './schema.js';
 export { INDUSTRIES, FUNCTIONS, AI_TIERS, READINESS, INDUSTRY_LABEL, FUNCTION_LABEL, TIER_LABEL } from './taxonomy.js';
 export const BVF_VERSION = '1.0';

package/dist/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/inferReadiness.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+/**
+ * infer_readiness: measure organisational readiness instead of asking for it.
+ *
+ * Readiness is the AI BVF's most consequential input, it sets the value
+ * capture rate, the pace-layer drag, and (since 0.8.0) the estimated
+ * change-enablement pillar, and it has always been self-reported, which is
+ * the same gaming surface every maturity model carries. This module closes
+ * that surface: it reads the operational signals an organisation cannot
+ * easily flatter, hand-offs, rework, wait time, automation coverage and
+ * cycle time against the published function medians, and returns the
+ * readiness classification the process data supports, with a confidence
+ * governed by how many signals were provided and how well they agree.
+ *
+ * The mapping is the operational definition of the words themselves:
+ * siloed IS many hand-offs, high rework and long waits; agile IS few
+ * hand-offs, low rework and short decision loops. Deterministic, like
+ * everything in the engine: same signals, same answer.
+ */
+import type { InferReadinessInput, InferReadinessResult } from './types.js';
+/**
+ * Infer readiness from measured process signals. Requires `function` (for
+ * the medians) and at least two of the five signals; confidence scales with
+ * coverage and drops when the signals disagree.
+ */
+export declare function inferReadiness(input: InferReadinessInput): InferReadinessResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=inferReadiness.d.ts.map

package/dist/inferReadiness.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/inferReadiness.js

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+import { FUNCTION_MEDIANS } from './diagnose.js';
+const LEAN_LABEL = { 0: 'agile', 1: 'traditional', 2: 'siloed' };
+function read(signal, value, lean, note) {
+    return { signal, value, leans: LEAN_LABEL[lean], note };
+}
+/**
+ * Infer readiness from measured process signals. Requires `function` (for
+ * the medians) and at least two of the five signals; confidence scales with
+ * coverage and drops when the signals disagree.
+ */
+export function inferReadiness(input) {
+    const med = FUNCTION_MEDIANS[input.function];
+    if (!med)
+        throw new Error(`Unknown function: ${input.function}`);
+    const reads = [];
+    const leans = [];
+    if (typeof input.handoffs === 'number') {
+        const ratio = input.handoffs / med.handoffs;
+        const lean = ratio >= 1.5 ? 2 : ratio >= 1.0 ? 1 : 0;
+        leans.push(lean);
+        reads.push(read('handoffs', input.handoffs, lean, `${input.handoffs} hand-offs against a ${med.handoffs} median for ${input.function}: ${lean === 2 ? 'work moves by escalation, the structural signature of a siloed organisation' : lean === 1 ? 'a functional hierarchy passing work along its lines' : 'few owners per outcome, decisions stay close to the work'}.`));
+    }
+    if (typeof input.rework_rate === 'number') {
+        const lean = input.rework_rate >= 0.15 ? 2 : input.rework_rate >= 0.05 ? 1 : 0;
+        leans.push(lean);
+        reads.push(read('rework_rate', input.rework_rate, lean, `${Math.round(input.rework_rate * 100)}% of instances reopened: ${lean === 2 ? 'quality is being negotiated between departments after the fact' : lean === 1 ? 'normal friction for a traditional operating model' : 'first-time-right discipline, a fast-feedback culture'}.`));
+    }
+    if (typeof input.touch_ratio === 'number') {
+        const lean = input.touch_ratio < 0.15 ? 2 : input.touch_ratio <= 0.4 ? 1 : 0;
+        leans.push(lean);
+        reads.push(read('touch_ratio', input.touch_ratio, lean, `${Math.round(input.touch_ratio * 100)}% of elapsed time is actual work, the rest is waiting: ${lean === 2 ? 'the process spends its life in queues between functions' : lean === 1 ? 'meaningful wait states between owners' : 'short decision loops, little queueing'}.`));
+    }
+    if (typeof input.automation_level === 'number') {
+        const lean = input.automation_level < 0.2 ? 2 : input.automation_level <= 0.5 ? 1 : 0;
+        leans.push(lean);
+        reads.push(read('automation_level', input.automation_level, lean, `${Math.round(input.automation_level * 100)}% already automated: ${lean === 2 ? 'manual effort is the norm, prior automation attempts have not stuck' : lean === 1 ? 'partial automation, typical of a traditional estate' : 'the organisation already absorbs automation well'}.`));
+    }
+    if (typeof input.cycle_time_days === 'number') {
+        const ratio = input.cycle_time_days / med.cycle_days;
+        const lean = ratio >= 1.5 ? 2 : ratio >= 0.75 ? 1 : 0;
+        leans.push(lean);
+        reads.push(read('cycle_time_days', input.cycle_time_days, lean, `${input.cycle_time_days} days against a ${med.cycle_days}-day median for ${input.function}: ${lean === 2 ? 'the operating model is adding most of the elapsed time' : lean === 1 ? 'in line with a functional hierarchy' : 'faster than the median, the structure is not in the way'}.`));
+    }
+    if (leans.length < 2) {
+        throw new Error('infer_readiness needs at least two measured signals (of handoffs, rework_rate, touch_ratio, automation_level, cycle_time_days). With fewer, self-reported readiness plus signal_completeness is the honest fallback.');
+    }
+    const avg = leans.reduce((s, l) => s + l, 0) / leans.length;
+    const readiness = avg >= 1.4 ? 'siloed' : avg >= 0.7 ? 'traditional' : 'agile';
+    // Confidence: coverage sets the base, disagreement discounts it.
+    const COVERAGE_BASE = { 2: 45, 3: 60, 4: 75, 5: 90 };
+    const base = COVERAGE_BASE[leans.length] ?? 90;
+    const spread = Math.max(...leans) - Math.min(...leans); // 0 = unanimous, 2 = fully split
+    const confidence = Math.max(20, Math.round(base - spread * 10));
+    const disagreement = spread === 2
+        ? 'The signals disagree with each other, some read agile while others read siloed, which usually means readiness is uneven across the process rather than one thing. Treat the classification as the centre of gravity and look at the per-signal reads.'
+        : undefined;
+    return {
+        readiness,
+        readiness_basis: 'measured',
+        confidence,
+        signals_used: leans.length,
+        signal_reads: reads,
+        ...(disagreement ? { disagreement } : {}),
+        guidance: `Pass readiness="${readiness}" to score_initiative, score_portfolio, recommend_improvements or calculate_pace_layer_drag. If this measured classification is lower than the self-reported one, trust the process data: the gap between what an organisation says and what its hand-offs show is itself a change-readiness finding.`,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=inferReadiness.js.map

package/dist/inferReadiness.js.map

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package/dist/inferReadiness.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=inferReadiness.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/inferReadiness.test.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"inferReadiness.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/inferReadiness.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/inferReadiness.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+import test from 'node:test';
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
+import { inferReadiness } from './inferReadiness.js';
+test('siloed-shaped signals classify siloed (procurement-flow shape)', () => {
+    const r = inferReadiness({ function: 'supply', handoffs: 11, rework_rate: 0.22, touch_ratio: 0.08, automation_level: 0.1, cycle_time_days: 18 });
+    assert.equal(r.readiness, 'siloed');
+    assert.equal(r.readiness_basis, 'measured');
+    assert.equal(r.signals_used, 5);
+    assert.ok(r.confidence >= 70);
+});
+test('agile-shaped signals classify agile (ticket-triage shape)', () => {
+    const r = inferReadiness({ function: 'cx', handoffs: 1, rework_rate: 0.03, touch_ratio: 0.55, automation_level: 0.6, cycle_time_days: 0.5 });
+    assert.equal(r.readiness, 'agile');
+    assert.ok(r.confidence >= 70);
+});
+test('middle signals classify traditional', () => {
+    const r = inferReadiness({ function: 'finance', handoffs: 4, rework_rate: 0.08, touch_ratio: 0.3, automation_level: 0.35, cycle_time_days: 5 });
+    assert.equal(r.readiness, 'traditional');
+});
+test('fewer signals means lower confidence', () => {
+    const five = inferReadiness({ function: 'supply', handoffs: 11, rework_rate: 0.22, touch_ratio: 0.08, automation_level: 0.1, cycle_time_days: 18 });
+    const two = inferReadiness({ function: 'supply', handoffs: 11, rework_rate: 0.22 });
+    assert.equal(two.readiness, 'siloed');
+    assert.ok(two.confidence < five.confidence);
+});
+test('disagreeing signals discount confidence and attach the disagreement note', () => {
+    const r = inferReadiness({ function: 'cx', handoffs: 6, rework_rate: 0.02, touch_ratio: 0.6, automation_level: 0.1 });
+    assert.ok(r.disagreement && r.disagreement.includes('disagree'));
+    const unanimous = inferReadiness({ function: 'cx', handoffs: 1, rework_rate: 0.02, touch_ratio: 0.6, automation_level: 0.6 });
+    assert.ok(r.confidence < unanimous.confidence);
+});
+test('fewer than two signals refuses honestly', () => {
+    assert.throws(() => inferReadiness({ function: 'cx', handoffs: 3 }), /at least two measured signals/);
+});
+test('deterministic: same signals, same answer', () => {
+    const a = inferReadiness({ function: 'hr', handoffs: 7, rework_rate: 0.18, touch_ratio: 0.1 });
+    const b = inferReadiness({ function: 'hr', handoffs: 7, rework_rate: 0.18, touch_ratio: 0.1 });
+    assert.deepEqual(a, b);
+});
+test('per-signal reads explain each lean in plain language', () => {
+    const r = inferReadiness({ function: 'supply', handoffs: 11, rework_rate: 0.22 });
+    assert.equal(r.signal_reads.length, 2);
+    assert.ok(r.signal_reads.every(s => s.note.length > 20 && ['agile', 'traditional', 'siloed'].includes(s.leans)));
+    assert.ok(!JSON.stringify(r).includes('—'), 'em-dash found in output text');
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=inferReadiness.test.js.map

package/dist/inferReadiness.test.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/types.d.ts

@@ -164,6 +164,33 @@ export interface RecommendResult {
     /** Absent when the initiative is already Accelerate. */
     change_plan?: ChangePlan;
 }
+/** Input for infer_readiness: measured process signals, at least two required. */
+export interface InferReadinessInput {
+    function: FunctionId;
+    handoffs?: number;
+    rework_rate?: number;
+    touch_ratio?: number;
+    automation_level?: number;
+    cycle_time_days?: number;
+}
+/** One measured signal and the readiness it points toward. */
+export interface SignalRead {
+    signal: string;
+    value: number;
+    leans: Readiness;
+    note: string;
+}
+export interface InferReadinessResult {
+    readiness: Readiness;
+    /** Always 'measured': this classification came from process data, not self-report. */
+    readiness_basis: 'measured';
+    confidence: number;
+    signals_used: number;
+    signal_reads: SignalRead[];
+    /** Present when the signals point in opposing directions. */
+    disagreement?: string;
+    guidance: string;
+}
 export interface PaceLayerInput {
     revenue_eur: number;
     ai_tier: AiTier;

package/dist/types.d.ts.map

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package/package.json

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
   "name": "@aibvf/core",
-  "version": "0.5.0",
-  "description": "AI BVF — open protocol for scoring AI investments. Validator and scoring engine.",
+  "version": "0.6.0",
+  "description": "AI BVF \u2014 open protocol for scoring AI investments. Validator and scoring engine.",
   "keywords": [
     "ai",
     "bvf",
@@ -42,4 +42,4 @@
     "typescript": "^5.4.0",
     "@types/node": "^20.0.0"
   }
-}
+}