@aibvf/core 0.4.0 → 0.6.0

package/dist/changePlan.d.ts

@@ -17,6 +17,6 @@
  *
  * Deterministic, like everything in the engine: same inputs, same plan.
  */
-import type { RecommendInput, Recommendation, ChangePlan } from './types.js';
-export declare function buildChangePlan(input: RecommendInput, recommendations: Recommendation[], feasible: boolean): ChangePlan;
+import type { RecommendInput, Recommendation, ChangePlan, PillarScores } from './types.js';
+export declare function buildChangePlan(input: RecommendInput, resolved: PillarScores, recommendations: Recommendation[], feasible: boolean): ChangePlan;
 //# sourceMappingURL=changePlan.d.ts.map

package/dist/changePlan.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"changePlan.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/changePlan.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAkBG;AACH,OAAO,KAAK,EACV,cAAc,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,UAAU,EAAc,YAAY,EACrE,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC;AAuRpB,wBAAgB,eAAe,CAC7B,KAAK,EAAE,cAAc,EACrB,QAAQ,EAAE,YAAY,EACtB,eAAe,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,EACjC,QAAQ,EAAE,OAAO,GAChB,UAAU,CAuFZ"}

package/dist/changePlan.js

@@ -1,7 +1,5 @@
 import { PACE_DRAG_RATE } from './score.js';
-/** Functions and industries where governance exposure defaults to regulatory. */
-const REGULATED_FUNCTIONS = new Set(['risk', 'finance', 'hr']);
-const REGULATED_INDUSTRIES = new Set(['financial', 'healthcare', 'public_sector', 'energy']);
+import { REGULATED_FUNCTIONS, REGULATED_INDUSTRIES } from './taxonomy.js';
 const ACCELERATE_FLOOR = 60;
 const GOV_CEILING = 40;
 // ── play builders ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
@@ -268,8 +266,8 @@ function inferRiskType(input) {
 function inferResistanceType(input) {
     return input.readiness === 'agile' ? 'skill' : 'will';
 }
-export function buildChangePlan(input, recommendations, feasible) {
-    const { strategic_alignment: sa, financial_return: fr, change_enablement: ce, governance_risk: gr } = input.scores;
+export function buildChangePlan(input, resolved, recommendations, feasible) {
+    const { strategic_alignment: sa, financial_return: fr, change_enablement: ce, governance_risk: gr } = resolved;
     // Severity per pillar: distance from the Accelerate thresholds, with the
     // forcing conditions (GR >= 70, FR <= 20) dominating everything else.
     const allShortfalls = [

package/dist/changePlan.js.map

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package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@
 export { validate } from './validate.js';
-export { score, recommendImprovements, calculatePaceLayerDrag, BASE_RATES, IND_MULT, TIER_ADJ, READINESS_CAPTURE, PACE_DRAG_RATE, } from './score.js';
+export { score, recommendImprovements, calculatePaceLayerDrag, estimatePillars, resolvePillars, BASE_RATES, IND_MULT, TIER_ADJ, READINESS_CAPTURE, PACE_DRAG_RATE, } from './score.js';
 export { diagnoseProcess, BRAIN_VERSION, EVIDENCE, FUNCTION_MEDIANS, } from './diagnose.js';
 export { buildChangePlan } from './changePlan.js';
+export { inferReadiness } from './inferReadiness.js';
 export { bvfSchema } from './schema.js';
 export { INDUSTRIES, FUNCTIONS, AI_TIERS, READINESS, INDUSTRY_LABEL, FUNCTION_LABEL, TIER_LABEL } from './taxonomy.js';
 export type * from './types.js';

package/dist/index.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"index.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/index.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,eAAe,CAAC;AACzC,OAAO,EACL,KAAK,EACL,qBAAqB,EACrB,sBAAsB,EACtB,eAAe,EAAE,cAAc,EAC/B,UAAU,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,iBAAiB,EAAE,cAAc,GAClE,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC;AACpB,OAAO,EACL,eAAe,EACf,aAAa,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,gBAAgB,GAC1C,MAAM,eAAe,CAAC;AACvB,OAAO,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,iBAAiB,CAAC;AAClD,OAAO,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,qBAAqB,CAAC;AACrD,OAAO,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,aAAa,CAAC;AACxC,OAAO,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,eAAe,CAAC;AACvH,mBAAmB,YAAY,CAAC;AAEhC,eAAO,MAAM,WAAW,QAAQ,CAAC"}

package/dist/index.js

@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@
 export { validate } from './validate.js';
-export { score, recommendImprovements, calculatePaceLayerDrag, BASE_RATES, IND_MULT, TIER_ADJ, READINESS_CAPTURE, PACE_DRAG_RATE, } from './score.js';
+export { score, recommendImprovements, calculatePaceLayerDrag, estimatePillars, resolvePillars, BASE_RATES, IND_MULT, TIER_ADJ, READINESS_CAPTURE, PACE_DRAG_RATE, } from './score.js';
 export { diagnoseProcess, BRAIN_VERSION, EVIDENCE, FUNCTION_MEDIANS, } from './diagnose.js';
 export { buildChangePlan } from './changePlan.js';
+export { inferReadiness } from './inferReadiness.js';
 export { bvfSchema } from './schema.js';
 export { INDUSTRIES, FUNCTIONS, AI_TIERS, READINESS, INDUSTRY_LABEL, FUNCTION_LABEL, TIER_LABEL } from './taxonomy.js';
 export const BVF_VERSION = '1.0';

package/dist/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"index.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/index.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,eAAe,CAAC;AACzC,OAAO,EACL,KAAK,EACL,qBAAqB,EACrB,sBAAsB,EACtB,eAAe,EAAE,cAAc,EAC/B,UAAU,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,iBAAiB,EAAE,cAAc,GAClE,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC;AACpB,OAAO,EACL,eAAe,EACf,aAAa,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,gBAAgB,GAC1C,MAAM,eAAe,CAAC;AACvB,OAAO,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,iBAAiB,CAAC;AAClD,OAAO,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,qBAAqB,CAAC;AACrD,OAAO,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,aAAa,CAAC;AACxC,OAAO,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,eAAe,CAAC;AAGvH,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,WAAW,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC"}

package/dist/inferReadiness.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+/**
+ * infer_readiness: measure organisational readiness instead of asking for it.
+ *
+ * Readiness is the AI BVF's most consequential input, it sets the value
+ * capture rate, the pace-layer drag, and (since 0.8.0) the estimated
+ * change-enablement pillar, and it has always been self-reported, which is
+ * the same gaming surface every maturity model carries. This module closes
+ * that surface: it reads the operational signals an organisation cannot
+ * easily flatter, hand-offs, rework, wait time, automation coverage and
+ * cycle time against the published function medians, and returns the
+ * readiness classification the process data supports, with a confidence
+ * governed by how many signals were provided and how well they agree.
+ *
+ * The mapping is the operational definition of the words themselves:
+ * siloed IS many hand-offs, high rework and long waits; agile IS few
+ * hand-offs, low rework and short decision loops. Deterministic, like
+ * everything in the engine: same signals, same answer.
+ */
+import type { InferReadinessInput, InferReadinessResult } from './types.js';
+/**
+ * Infer readiness from measured process signals. Requires `function` (for
+ * the medians) and at least two of the five signals; confidence scales with
+ * coverage and drops when the signals disagree.
+ */
+export declare function inferReadiness(input: InferReadinessInput): InferReadinessResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=inferReadiness.d.ts.map

package/dist/inferReadiness.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/inferReadiness.js

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+import { FUNCTION_MEDIANS } from './diagnose.js';
+const LEAN_LABEL = { 0: 'agile', 1: 'traditional', 2: 'siloed' };
+function read(signal, value, lean, note) {
+    return { signal, value, leans: LEAN_LABEL[lean], note };
+}
+/**
+ * Infer readiness from measured process signals. Requires `function` (for
+ * the medians) and at least two of the five signals; confidence scales with
+ * coverage and drops when the signals disagree.
+ */
+export function inferReadiness(input) {
+    const med = FUNCTION_MEDIANS[input.function];
+    if (!med)
+        throw new Error(`Unknown function: ${input.function}`);
+    const reads = [];
+    const leans = [];
+    if (typeof input.handoffs === 'number') {
+        const ratio = input.handoffs / med.handoffs;
+        const lean = ratio >= 1.5 ? 2 : ratio >= 1.0 ? 1 : 0;
+        leans.push(lean);
+        reads.push(read('handoffs', input.handoffs, lean, `${input.handoffs} hand-offs against a ${med.handoffs} median for ${input.function}: ${lean === 2 ? 'work moves by escalation, the structural signature of a siloed organisation' : lean === 1 ? 'a functional hierarchy passing work along its lines' : 'few owners per outcome, decisions stay close to the work'}.`));
+    }
+    if (typeof input.rework_rate === 'number') {
+        const lean = input.rework_rate >= 0.15 ? 2 : input.rework_rate >= 0.05 ? 1 : 0;
+        leans.push(lean);
+        reads.push(read('rework_rate', input.rework_rate, lean, `${Math.round(input.rework_rate * 100)}% of instances reopened: ${lean === 2 ? 'quality is being negotiated between departments after the fact' : lean === 1 ? 'normal friction for a traditional operating model' : 'first-time-right discipline, a fast-feedback culture'}.`));
+    }
+    if (typeof input.touch_ratio === 'number') {
+        const lean = input.touch_ratio < 0.15 ? 2 : input.touch_ratio <= 0.4 ? 1 : 0;
+        leans.push(lean);
+        reads.push(read('touch_ratio', input.touch_ratio, lean, `${Math.round(input.touch_ratio * 100)}% of elapsed time is actual work, the rest is waiting: ${lean === 2 ? 'the process spends its life in queues between functions' : lean === 1 ? 'meaningful wait states between owners' : 'short decision loops, little queueing'}.`));
+    }
+    if (typeof input.automation_level === 'number') {
+        const lean = input.automation_level < 0.2 ? 2 : input.automation_level <= 0.5 ? 1 : 0;
+        leans.push(lean);
+        reads.push(read('automation_level', input.automation_level, lean, `${Math.round(input.automation_level * 100)}% already automated: ${lean === 2 ? 'manual effort is the norm, prior automation attempts have not stuck' : lean === 1 ? 'partial automation, typical of a traditional estate' : 'the organisation already absorbs automation well'}.`));
+    }
+    if (typeof input.cycle_time_days === 'number') {
+        const ratio = input.cycle_time_days / med.cycle_days;
+        const lean = ratio >= 1.5 ? 2 : ratio >= 0.75 ? 1 : 0;
+        leans.push(lean);
+        reads.push(read('cycle_time_days', input.cycle_time_days, lean, `${input.cycle_time_days} days against a ${med.cycle_days}-day median for ${input.function}: ${lean === 2 ? 'the operating model is adding most of the elapsed time' : lean === 1 ? 'in line with a functional hierarchy' : 'faster than the median, the structure is not in the way'}.`));
+    }
+    if (leans.length < 2) {
+        throw new Error('infer_readiness needs at least two measured signals (of handoffs, rework_rate, touch_ratio, automation_level, cycle_time_days). With fewer, self-reported readiness plus signal_completeness is the honest fallback.');
+    }
+    const avg = leans.reduce((s, l) => s + l, 0) / leans.length;
+    const readiness = avg >= 1.4 ? 'siloed' : avg >= 0.7 ? 'traditional' : 'agile';
+    // Confidence: coverage sets the base, disagreement discounts it.
+    const COVERAGE_BASE = { 2: 45, 3: 60, 4: 75, 5: 90 };
+    const base = COVERAGE_BASE[leans.length] ?? 90;
+    const spread = Math.max(...leans) - Math.min(...leans); // 0 = unanimous, 2 = fully split
+    const confidence = Math.max(20, Math.round(base - spread * 10));
+    const disagreement = spread === 2
+        ? 'The signals disagree with each other, some read agile while others read siloed, which usually means readiness is uneven across the process rather than one thing. Treat the classification as the centre of gravity and look at the per-signal reads.'
+        : undefined;
+    return {
+        readiness,
+        readiness_basis: 'measured',
+        confidence,
+        signals_used: leans.length,
+        signal_reads: reads,
+        ...(disagreement ? { disagreement } : {}),
+        guidance: `Pass readiness="${readiness}" to score_initiative, score_portfolio, recommend_improvements or calculate_pace_layer_drag. If this measured classification is lower than the self-reported one, trust the process data: the gap between what an organisation says and what its hand-offs show is itself a change-readiness finding.`,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=inferReadiness.js.map

package/dist/inferReadiness.js.map

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package/dist/inferReadiness.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=inferReadiness.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/inferReadiness.test.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"inferReadiness.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/inferReadiness.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/inferReadiness.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+import test from 'node:test';
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
+import { inferReadiness } from './inferReadiness.js';
+test('siloed-shaped signals classify siloed (procurement-flow shape)', () => {
+    const r = inferReadiness({ function: 'supply', handoffs: 11, rework_rate: 0.22, touch_ratio: 0.08, automation_level: 0.1, cycle_time_days: 18 });
+    assert.equal(r.readiness, 'siloed');
+    assert.equal(r.readiness_basis, 'measured');
+    assert.equal(r.signals_used, 5);
+    assert.ok(r.confidence >= 70);
+});
+test('agile-shaped signals classify agile (ticket-triage shape)', () => {
+    const r = inferReadiness({ function: 'cx', handoffs: 1, rework_rate: 0.03, touch_ratio: 0.55, automation_level: 0.6, cycle_time_days: 0.5 });
+    assert.equal(r.readiness, 'agile');
+    assert.ok(r.confidence >= 70);
+});
+test('middle signals classify traditional', () => {
+    const r = inferReadiness({ function: 'finance', handoffs: 4, rework_rate: 0.08, touch_ratio: 0.3, automation_level: 0.35, cycle_time_days: 5 });
+    assert.equal(r.readiness, 'traditional');
+});
+test('fewer signals means lower confidence', () => {
+    const five = inferReadiness({ function: 'supply', handoffs: 11, rework_rate: 0.22, touch_ratio: 0.08, automation_level: 0.1, cycle_time_days: 18 });
+    const two = inferReadiness({ function: 'supply', handoffs: 11, rework_rate: 0.22 });
+    assert.equal(two.readiness, 'siloed');
+    assert.ok(two.confidence < five.confidence);
+});
+test('disagreeing signals discount confidence and attach the disagreement note', () => {
+    const r = inferReadiness({ function: 'cx', handoffs: 6, rework_rate: 0.02, touch_ratio: 0.6, automation_level: 0.1 });
+    assert.ok(r.disagreement && r.disagreement.includes('disagree'));
+    const unanimous = inferReadiness({ function: 'cx', handoffs: 1, rework_rate: 0.02, touch_ratio: 0.6, automation_level: 0.6 });
+    assert.ok(r.confidence < unanimous.confidence);
+});
+test('fewer than two signals refuses honestly', () => {
+    assert.throws(() => inferReadiness({ function: 'cx', handoffs: 3 }), /at least two measured signals/);
+});
+test('deterministic: same signals, same answer', () => {
+    const a = inferReadiness({ function: 'hr', handoffs: 7, rework_rate: 0.18, touch_ratio: 0.1 });
+    const b = inferReadiness({ function: 'hr', handoffs: 7, rework_rate: 0.18, touch_ratio: 0.1 });
+    assert.deepEqual(a, b);
+});
+test('per-signal reads explain each lean in plain language', () => {
+    const r = inferReadiness({ function: 'supply', handoffs: 11, rework_rate: 0.22 });
+    assert.equal(r.signal_reads.length, 2);
+    assert.ok(r.signal_reads.every(s => s.note.length > 20 && ['agile', 'traditional', 'siloed'].includes(s.leans)));
+    assert.ok(!JSON.stringify(r).includes('—'), 'em-dash found in output text');
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=inferReadiness.test.js.map

package/dist/inferReadiness.test.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/pillarsOptional.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=pillarsOptional.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/pillarsOptional.test.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"pillarsOptional.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/pillarsOptional.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/pillarsOptional.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+import test from 'node:test';
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
+import { score, recommendImprovements, estimatePillars } from './score.js';
+const bare = {
+    industry: 'manufacturing', revenue_eur: 500_000_000,
+    function: 'cx', ai_tier: 'gen2', readiness: 'agile',
+};
+test('score runs with no pillar scores at all and reports every pillar estimated', () => {
+    const r = score(bare);
+    assert.ok(['Fix', 'Stop'].includes(r.classification));
+    assert.deepEqual(Object.values(r.pillar_basis), ['estimated', 'estimated', 'estimated', 'estimated']);
+    assert.ok(r.caveat && r.caveat.includes('Estimated pillars'));
+});
+test('fully estimated pillars never produce an Accelerate, by prior design', () => {
+    // Sweep every tier x readiness x function combination with no scores given.
+    for (const ai_tier of ['gen1', 'gen2', 'gen3']) {
+        for (const readiness of ['agile', 'traditional', 'siloed']) {
+            for (const fn of ['finance', 'hr', 'sales', 'supply', 'cx', 'risk', 'it', 'rd']) {
+                const r = score({ ...bare, ai_tier, readiness, function: fn });
+                assert.notEqual(r.classification, 'Accelerate', `${ai_tier}/${readiness}/${fn} accelerated on estimates`);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+});
+test('estimated GR forces Stop for agentic AI in a regulated function and industry', () => {
+    const r = score({ ...bare, industry: 'financial', function: 'risk', ai_tier: 'gen3' });
+    // gen3 (55) + regulated function (+10) + regulated industry (+8) = 73 >= 70.
+    assert.equal(r.scores_used.governance_risk, 73);
+    assert.equal(r.classification, 'Stop');
+});
+test('estimation priors are deterministic and sit in unproven territory', () => {
+    const e = estimatePillars({ industry: 'retail', function: 'sales', ai_tier: 'gen1', readiness: 'siloed' });
+    assert.deepEqual(e, estimatePillars({ industry: 'retail', function: 'sales', ai_tier: 'gen1', readiness: 'siloed' }));
+    assert.equal(e.strategic_alignment, 50);
+    assert.equal(e.change_enablement, 32);
+    assert.ok(e.financial_return < 60 && e.financial_return > 20);
+});
+test('partial scores keep given values, estimate the rest, and scale the signal default', () => {
+    const r = score({ ...bare, scores: { strategic_alignment: 70, financial_return: 65 } });
+    assert.equal(r.pillar_basis.strategic_alignment, 'given');
+    assert.equal(r.pillar_basis.financial_return, 'given');
+    assert.equal(r.pillar_basis.change_enablement, 'estimated');
+    assert.equal(r.scores_used.strategic_alignment, 70);
+    // 2 of 4 given: default signal 0.75, so confidence is haircut below the full-signal figure.
+    const full = score({ ...bare, scores: { strategic_alignment: 70, financial_return: 65, change_enablement: 55, governance_risk: 42 } });
+    assert.ok(r.confidence < full.confidence + 10); // sanity: haircut applied, not inflated
+});
+test('a mixed call with one estimated pillar can still Accelerate, with the estimation caveat attached', () => {
+    const r = score({
+        ...bare, ai_tier: 'gen1', industry: 'retail',
+        scores: { strategic_alignment: 72, financial_return: 68, change_enablement: 66 },
+    });
+    // GR estimated at gen1 unregulated = 30, under the 40 ceiling.
+    assert.equal(r.classification, 'Accelerate');
+    assert.equal(r.pillar_basis.governance_risk, 'estimated');
+    assert.ok(r.caveat && r.caveat.includes('governance_risk'));
+});
+test('all four given reproduces the old behaviour exactly: basis given, no estimation caveat, signal 1', () => {
+    const r = score({ ...bare, scores: { strategic_alignment: 70, financial_return: 65, change_enablement: 62, governance_risk: 35 } });
+    assert.deepEqual(Object.values(r.pillar_basis), ['given', 'given', 'given', 'given']);
+    assert.equal(r.classification, 'Accelerate');
+    assert.equal(r.caveat, undefined);
+});
+test('explicit signal_completeness still wins over the given-count default', () => {
+    const r = score({ ...bare, signal_completeness: 0.2 });
+    assert.ok(r.caveat && r.caveat.includes('0.2'));
+});
+test('recommend_improvements runs with no scores and returns a provisional change plan', () => {
+    const r = recommendImprovements({ ...bare, ai_tier: 'gen3', readiness: 'traditional' });
+    assert.ok(['Fix', 'Stop'].includes(r.current_classification));
+    assert.ok(r.notes.some(n => n.includes('Estimated pillars')));
+    assert.ok(r.change_plan && r.change_plan.plays.length > 0);
+    assert.ok(r.change_plan.plays.some(p => p.id === 'pace-realign'));
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=pillarsOptional.test.js.map

package/dist/pillarsOptional.test.js.map

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package/dist/score.d.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import type { ScoreInput, ScoreResult, RecommendInput, RecommendResult, PaceLayerInput, PaceLayerResult, AiTier, Readiness } from './types.js';
+import type { ScoreInput, ScoreResult, RecommendInput, RecommendResult, PaceLayerInput, PaceLayerResult, PillarScores, PillarBasis, AiTier, Readiness } from './types.js';
 interface BaseRate {
     rev: {
         lo: number;
@@ -55,6 +55,34 @@ export declare const PACE_DRAG_RATE: Record<AiTier, Record<Readiness, {
     lo: number;
     hi: number;
 }>>;
+/**
+ * Deterministic pillar estimation for callers who do not have measured
+ * pillar scores. Every prior is anchored to something the engine already
+ * knows, and every estimated value sits in unproven territory by design:
+ * an estimate can force caution (a Stop) but can never hand out the
+ * evidence-cleared scores an Accelerate requires.
+ *
+ * - strategic_alignment: flat 50. Alignment to a board KPI cannot be read
+ *   from industry or function; 50 means unproven, ask the board-anchor
+ *   question.
+ * - financial_return: anchored to the published benchmark upside for the
+ *   function (BASE_RATES). Strong upside estimates 52, mid 46, thin 40.
+ *   Never above 60 (an unmodelled case is unproven), never at or below 20
+ *   (no evidence of a bad case either).
+ * - change_enablement: from readiness, the engine's change-capability
+ *   proxy. agile 55, traditional 45, siloed 32.
+ * - governance_risk: from tier plus regulated context. gen1 30, gen2 42,
+ *   gen3 55, +10 in a regulated function, +8 in a regulated industry.
+ *   Agentic AI in a regulated function and industry estimates at 73,
+ *   which forces a Stop until governance evidence exists — deliberate.
+ */
+export declare function estimatePillars(input: Pick<ScoreInput, 'industry' | 'function' | 'ai_tier' | 'readiness'>): PillarScores;
+/** Resolve given + estimated pillars into a full set, with provenance. */
+export declare function resolvePillars(input: ScoreInput): {
+    scores: PillarScores;
+    basis: PillarBasis;
+    givenCount: number;
+};
 /**
  * Score an initiative according to AI BVF v1.0.
  * Deterministic. No network. No dependencies.

package/dist/score.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/score.js

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
+import { REGULATED_FUNCTIONS, REGULATED_INDUSTRIES } from './taxonomy.js';
 // Deferred-access import: buildChangePlan is only called inside
 // recommendImprovements, so the score <-> changePlan module cycle is safe.
 import { buildChangePlan } from './changePlan.js';
@@ -103,12 +104,70 @@ function appliedModules(industry, fn, readiness) {
 }
 /** Below this signal_completeness, score() attaches a soft-inputs caveat. */
 const SIGNAL_CAVEAT_THRESHOLD = 0.7;
+/**
+ * Deterministic pillar estimation for callers who do not have measured
+ * pillar scores. Every prior is anchored to something the engine already
+ * knows, and every estimated value sits in unproven territory by design:
+ * an estimate can force caution (a Stop) but can never hand out the
+ * evidence-cleared scores an Accelerate requires.
+ *
+ * - strategic_alignment: flat 50. Alignment to a board KPI cannot be read
+ *   from industry or function; 50 means unproven, ask the board-anchor
+ *   question.
+ * - financial_return: anchored to the published benchmark upside for the
+ *   function (BASE_RATES). Strong upside estimates 52, mid 46, thin 40.
+ *   Never above 60 (an unmodelled case is unproven), never at or below 20
+ *   (no evidence of a bad case either).
+ * - change_enablement: from readiness, the engine's change-capability
+ *   proxy. agile 55, traditional 45, siloed 32.
+ * - governance_risk: from tier plus regulated context. gen1 30, gen2 42,
+ *   gen3 55, +10 in a regulated function, +8 in a regulated industry.
+ *   Agentic AI in a regulated function and industry estimates at 73,
+ *   which forces a Stop until governance evidence exists — deliberate.
+ */
+export function estimatePillars(input) {
+    const base = BASE_RATES[input.function];
+    const upside = base ? base.rev.hi + base.cost.hi : 0;
+    const financial_return = upside >= 0.10 ? 52 : upside >= 0.07 ? 46 : 40;
+    const CE_BY_READINESS = { agile: 55, traditional: 45, siloed: 32 };
+    const change_enablement = CE_BY_READINESS[input.readiness] ?? 45;
+    const GR_BY_TIER = { gen1: 30, gen2: 42, gen3: 55 };
+    let governance_risk = GR_BY_TIER[input.ai_tier] ?? 42;
+    if (REGULATED_FUNCTIONS.has(input.function))
+        governance_risk += 10;
+    if (input.industry && REGULATED_INDUSTRIES.has(input.industry))
+        governance_risk += 8;
+    governance_risk = Math.min(100, governance_risk);
+    return { strategic_alignment: 50, financial_return, change_enablement, governance_risk };
+}
+/** Resolve given + estimated pillars into a full set, with provenance. */
+export function resolvePillars(input) {
+    const est = estimatePillars(input);
+    const given = input.scores ?? {};
+    const pillars = ['strategic_alignment', 'financial_return', 'change_enablement', 'governance_risk'];
+    const scores = {};
+    const basis = {};
+    let givenCount = 0;
+    for (const p of pillars) {
+        const v = given[p];
+        if (typeof v === 'number') {
+            scores[p] = v;
+            basis[p] = 'given';
+            givenCount++;
+        }
+        else {
+            scores[p] = est[p];
+            basis[p] = 'estimated';
+        }
+    }
+    return { scores, basis, givenCount };
+}
 /**
  * Score an initiative according to AI BVF v1.0.
  * Deterministic. No network. No dependencies.
  */
 export function score(input) {
-    const { industry, revenue_eur, function: fn, ai_tier, readiness, scores } = input;
+    const { industry, revenue_eur, function: fn, ai_tier, readiness } = input;
     const base = BASE_RATES[fn];
     if (!base)
         throw new Error(`Unknown function: ${fn}`);
@@ -119,23 +178,39 @@ export function score(input) {
     const cap = READINESS_CAPTURE[readiness];
     if (!cap)
         throw new Error(`Unknown readiness: ${readiness}`);
-    const { strategic_alignment: sa, financial_return: fr, change_enablement: ce, governance_risk: gr } = scores;
+    const { scores: resolved, basis, givenCount } = resolvePillars(input);
+    const { strategic_alignment: sa, financial_return: fr, change_enablement: ce, governance_risk: gr } = resolved;
+    const allEstimated = givenCount === 0;
+    const anyEstimated = givenCount < 4;
     const grossLo = Math.round(revenue_eur * (base.rev.lo + base.cost.lo) * mult * tAdj);
     const grossHi = Math.round(revenue_eur * (base.rev.hi + base.cost.hi) * mult * tAdj);
     const netLo = Math.round(grossLo * cap.low);
     const netHi = Math.round(grossHi * cap.high);
-    const cls = classify(sa, fr, ce, gr);
+    let cls = classify(sa, fr, ce, gr);
+    // Stop-first invariant: a fully-estimated pass can never hand out a green
+    // light. The priors already make this structurally impossible (estimated
+    // strategic_alignment is 50), this guard keeps the promise even if the
+    // priors ever change.
+    if (allEstimated && cls.label === 'Accelerate') {
+        cls = { label: 'Fix', reason: 'Clears the Accelerate thresholds on estimated pillars only. Confirm the four pillar scores with evidence to unlock the Go.' };
+    }
     // Base confidence from the pillar scores themselves.
     const baseConfidence = (sa + fr + ce + (100 - gr)) / 4;
-    // Input-quality haircut. signal_completeness defaults to 1 (measured), which
-    // leaves confidence identical to the pre-0.3.4 formula. As the inputs become
-    // estimated rather than measured, confidence is scaled toward half — the
-    // verdict is only as trustworthy as the metadata behind it.
-    const signal = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, input.signal_completeness ?? 1));
+    // Input-quality haircut. When the caller does not supply
+    // signal_completeness it defaults from how many pillars were actually
+    // given: all four = 1 (identical to the pre-0.5.0 behaviour), none = 0.5.
+    const defaultSignal = 0.5 + 0.125 * givenCount;
+    const signal = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, input.signal_completeness ?? defaultSignal));
     const confidence = Math.round(baseConfidence * (0.5 + 0.5 * signal));
-    const caveat = signal < SIGNAL_CAVEAT_THRESHOLD
-        ? `Verdict rests on soft inputs (signal_completeness ${signal}). Decision confidence has been reduced accordingly; treat this as directional and re-run with measured pillar scores before committing budget.`
-        : undefined;
+    const caveatParts = [];
+    if (anyEstimated) {
+        const estimated = Object.keys(basis).filter(k => basis[k] === 'estimated');
+        caveatParts.push(`Estimated pillars: ${estimated.join(', ')} (deterministic priors from readiness, tier, function and benchmarks, see pillar_basis). Confirm them with evidence before committing budget.`);
+    }
+    if (signal < SIGNAL_CAVEAT_THRESHOLD) {
+        caveatParts.push(`Verdict rests on soft inputs (signal_completeness ${signal}). Decision confidence has been reduced accordingly; treat this as directional.`);
+    }
+    const caveat = caveatParts.length ? caveatParts.join(' ') : undefined;
     return {
         classification: cls.label,
         reason: cls.reason,
@@ -148,6 +223,8 @@ export function score(input) {
         drivers: base.drivers,
         source: base.source,
         applied_modules: appliedModules(industry, fn, readiness),
+        scores_used: resolved,
+        pillar_basis: basis,
         ...(caveat ? { caveat } : {}),
     };
 }
@@ -179,11 +256,19 @@ const GOV_LOWER_TARGET = 35;
  * high to recover.
  */
 export function recommendImprovements(input) {
-    const { scores } = input;
-    const { strategic_alignment: sa, financial_return: fr, change_enablement: ce, governance_risk: gr } = scores;
-    const current = classify(sa, fr, ce, gr).label;
+    const { scores: resolved, basis, givenCount } = resolvePillars(input);
+    const { strategic_alignment: sa, financial_return: fr, change_enablement: ce, governance_risk: gr } = resolved;
+    let current = classify(sa, fr, ce, gr).label;
+    // Same Stop-first invariant as score(): fully-estimated pillars never
+    // produce an Accelerate, they produce a Fix pending confirmation.
+    if (givenCount === 0 && current === 'Accelerate')
+        current = 'Fix';
     const recs = [];
     const notes = [];
+    if (givenCount < 4) {
+        const estimated = Object.keys(basis).filter(k => basis[k] === 'estimated');
+        notes.push(`Estimated pillars: ${estimated.join(', ')} (deterministic priors from readiness, tier, function and benchmarks). The plan below is provisional on those pillars; confirm them with evidence and re-run.`);
+    }
     if (current === 'Accelerate') {
         return {
             current_classification: current,
@@ -219,7 +304,7 @@ export function recommendImprovements(input) {
         recommendations: recs,
         projected_confidence: projectedConfidence,
         notes,
-        change_plan: buildChangePlan(input, recs, feasible),
+        change_plan: buildChangePlan(input, resolved, recs, feasible),
     };
 }
 /**

package/dist/score.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/taxonomy.d.ts

@@ -5,4 +5,11 @@ export declare const READINESS: readonly ["agile", "traditional", "siloed"];
 export declare const INDUSTRY_LABEL: Record<string, string>;
 export declare const FUNCTION_LABEL: Record<string, string>;
 export declare const TIER_LABEL: Record<string, string>;
+/**
+ * Contexts where governance exposure defaults to regulatory. Shared by the
+ * pillar estimator and the change-leader play selector so both infer the
+ * same way from the same facts.
+ */
+export declare const REGULATED_FUNCTIONS: ReadonlySet<string>;
+export declare const REGULATED_INDUSTRIES: ReadonlySet<string>;
 //# sourceMappingURL=taxonomy.d.ts.map

package/dist/taxonomy.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"taxonomy.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/taxonomy.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,eAAO,MAAM,UAAU,yMAGb,CAAC;AAEX,eAAO,MAAM,SAAS,yEAAmE,CAAC;AAC1F,eAAO,MAAM,QAAQ,mCAAkC,CAAC;AACxD,eAAO,MAAM,SAAS,6CAA4C,CAAC;AAEnE,eAAO,MAAM,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,CAOjD,CAAC;AAEF,eAAO,MAAM,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,CAGjD,CAAC;AAEF,eAAO,MAAM,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,CAI7C,CAAC;AAEF;;;;GAIG;AACH,eAAO,MAAM,mBAAmB,EAAE,WAAW,CAAC,MAAM,CAAsC,CAAC;AAC3F,eAAO,MAAM,oBAAoB,EAAE,WAAW,CAAC,MAAM,CAAmE,CAAC"}

package/dist/taxonomy.js

@@ -22,4 +22,11 @@ export const TIER_LABEL = {
     gen2: 'Gen 2 — GenAI',
     gen3: 'Gen 3 — Agentic',
 };
+/**
+ * Contexts where governance exposure defaults to regulatory. Shared by the
+ * pillar estimator and the change-leader play selector so both infer the
+ * same way from the same facts.
+ */
+export const REGULATED_FUNCTIONS = new Set(['risk', 'finance', 'hr']);
+export const REGULATED_INDUSTRIES = new Set(['financial', 'healthcare', 'public_sector', 'energy']);
 //# sourceMappingURL=taxonomy.js.map

package/dist/taxonomy.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/types.d.ts

@@ -39,25 +39,35 @@ export interface Portfolio {
     };
     initiatives: Initiative[];
 }
+/** The four pillars, fully resolved (every pillar carries a number). */
+export interface PillarScores {
+    strategic_alignment: number;
+    financial_return: number;
+    change_enablement: number;
+    governance_risk: number;
+}
+/** Where each resolved pillar value came from. */
+export type PillarBasis = Record<keyof PillarScores, 'given' | 'estimated'>;
 export interface ScoreInput {
     industry: Industry;
     revenue_eur: number;
     function: FunctionId;
     ai_tier: AiTier;
     readiness: Readiness;
-    scores: {
-        strategic_alignment: number;
-        financial_return: number;
-        change_enablement: number;
-        governance_risk: number;
-    };
+    /**
+     * Optional, and each pillar inside it is optional. Give the pillars you
+     * have evidence for; any missing pillar is estimated deterministically
+     * from readiness, tier, function and the published benchmarks, the result
+     * reports which were estimated via pillar_basis, and a fully-estimated
+     * pass can never return Accelerate.
+     */
+    scores?: Partial<PillarScores>;
     /**
      * Optional 0–1. How grounded the four pillar scores are in real evidence
-     * versus estimated from context. Defaults to 1 (treated as measured), which
-     * leaves confidence unchanged. Lower values honestly haircut decision
-     * confidence and attach a caveat — the answer to "the scoring is only as
-     * good as the metadata you feed it". Mirrors diagnose_process's
-     * signal_completeness.
+     * versus estimated from context. When omitted it defaults from the count
+     * of pillars actually given (all four = 1, none = 0.5), which haircuts
+     * decision confidence and attaches a caveat on soft inputs. Mirrors
+     * diagnose_process's signal_completeness.
      */
     signal_completeness?: number;
 }
@@ -78,7 +88,11 @@ export interface ScoreResult {
     drivers: string[];
     source: string;
     applied_modules: string[];
-    /** Present only when signal_completeness is low: warns the verdict rests on soft inputs. */
+    /** The four pillar values the verdict was computed on, given or estimated. */
+    scores_used: PillarScores;
+    /** Which pillars were given by the caller and which were estimated by the engine. */
+    pillar_basis: PillarBasis;
+    /** Present when signal_completeness is low or any pillar was estimated: warns the verdict rests on soft inputs. */
     caveat?: string;
 }
 /** What kind of resistance sits behind a low change-enablement score. */
@@ -150,6 +164,33 @@ export interface RecommendResult {
     /** Absent when the initiative is already Accelerate. */
     change_plan?: ChangePlan;
 }
+/** Input for infer_readiness: measured process signals, at least two required. */
+export interface InferReadinessInput {
+    function: FunctionId;
+    handoffs?: number;
+    rework_rate?: number;
+    touch_ratio?: number;
+    automation_level?: number;
+    cycle_time_days?: number;
+}
+/** One measured signal and the readiness it points toward. */
+export interface SignalRead {
+    signal: string;
+    value: number;
+    leans: Readiness;
+    note: string;
+}
+export interface InferReadinessResult {
+    readiness: Readiness;
+    /** Always 'measured': this classification came from process data, not self-report. */
+    readiness_basis: 'measured';
+    confidence: number;
+    signals_used: number;
+    signal_reads: SignalRead[];
+    /** Present when the signals point in opposing directions. */
+    disagreement?: string;
+    guidance: string;
+}
 export interface PaceLayerInput {
     revenue_eur: number;
     ai_tier: AiTier;

package/dist/types.d.ts.map

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package/package.json

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
   "name": "@aibvf/core",
-  "version": "0.4.0",
-  "description": "AI BVF — open protocol for scoring AI investments. Validator and scoring engine.",
+  "version": "0.6.0",
+  "description": "AI BVF \u2014 open protocol for scoring AI investments. Validator and scoring engine.",
   "keywords": [
     "ai",
     "bvf",
@@ -42,4 +42,4 @@
     "typescript": "^5.4.0",
     "@types/node": "^20.0.0"
   }
-}
+}