@agentlensai/server 0.10.0 → 0.13.0

package/dist/lib/optimization/analyzers/model-downgrade.js

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+/**
+ * ModelDowngradeAnalyzer (Feature 17 — Story 17.2)
+ *
+ * Wraps the existing OptimizationEngine and maps its CostRecommendation
+ * output to EnhancedRecommendation with category 'model_downgrade'.
+ */
+import { DEFAULT_MODEL_COSTS } from '@agentlensai/core';
+import { OptimizationEngine } from '../engine.js';
+import { createHash } from 'node:crypto';
+export class ModelDowngradeAnalyzer {
+    name = 'model_downgrade';
+    engine;
+    constructor(modelCosts = DEFAULT_MODEL_COSTS) {
+        this.engine = new OptimizationEngine(modelCosts);
+    }
+    async analyze(ctx) {
+        const result = await this.engine.getRecommendations(ctx.store, {
+            agentId: ctx.agentId,
+            period: ctx.period,
+            limit: ctx.limit,
+        });
+        const now = new Date().toISOString();
+        return result.recommendations.map((rec) => {
+            const id = createHash('sha256')
+                .update(`model_downgrade:${rec.agentId}:${rec.currentModel}:${rec.recommendedModel}:${rec.complexityTier}`)
+                .digest('hex')
+                .slice(0, 16);
+            return {
+                id,
+                category: 'model_downgrade',
+                estimatedMonthlySavings: rec.monthlySavings,
+                confidence: rec.confidence,
+                difficulty: 'config_change',
+                actionableSteps: [
+                    `Change model from ${rec.currentModel} to ${rec.recommendedModel} for ${rec.complexityTier} complexity calls`,
+                    'Monitor success rate for 48h after switch',
+                ],
+                agentId: rec.agentId,
+                evidence: {
+                    callsAnalyzed: rec.callVolume,
+                    period: ctx.period,
+                },
+                createdAt: now,
+                modelDowngrade: {
+                    currentModel: rec.currentModel,
+                    recommendedModel: rec.recommendedModel,
+                    complexityTier: rec.complexityTier,
+                    currentCostPerCall: rec.currentCostPerCall,
+                    recommendedCostPerCall: rec.recommendedCostPerCall,
+                    callVolume: rec.callVolume,
+                    currentSuccessRate: rec.currentSuccessRate,
+                    recommendedSuccessRate: rec.recommendedSuccessRate,
+                },
+            };
+        });
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=model-downgrade.js.map

package/dist/lib/optimization/analyzers/model-downgrade.js.map

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package/dist/lib/optimization/analyzers/prompt-optimization.d.ts

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+/**
+ * PromptOptimizationAnalyzer (Feature 17 — Story 17.3)
+ *
+ * Detects cost-saving opportunities in prompt construction:
+ * 1. System prompts exceeding 4,000 tokens (string length ÷ 4 estimation)
+ * 2. Repeated context patterns within sessions (>30% shared prefix)
+ */
+import type { ModelCosts, EnhancedRecommendation } from '@agentlensai/core';
+import type { Analyzer, AnalyzerContext } from './types.js';
+export declare class PromptOptimizationAnalyzer implements Analyzer {
+    private readonly modelCosts;
+    readonly name = "prompt_optimization";
+    constructor(modelCosts?: ModelCosts);
+    analyze(ctx: AnalyzerContext): Promise<EnhancedRecommendation[]>;
+    private determineConfidence;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=prompt-optimization.d.ts.map

package/dist/lib/optimization/analyzers/prompt-optimization.d.ts.map

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package/dist/lib/optimization/analyzers/prompt-optimization.js

@@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
+/**
+ * PromptOptimizationAnalyzer (Feature 17 — Story 17.3)
+ *
+ * Detects cost-saving opportunities in prompt construction:
+ * 1. System prompts exceeding 4,000 tokens (string length ÷ 4 estimation)
+ * 2. Repeated context patterns within sessions (>30% shared prefix)
+ */
+import { DEFAULT_MODEL_COSTS, lookupModelCost } from '@agentlensai/core';
+import { createHash } from 'node:crypto';
+const SYSTEM_PROMPT_TOKEN_THRESHOLD = 4000;
+const REPEATED_CONTEXT_RATIO = 0.3;
+export class PromptOptimizationAnalyzer {
+    modelCosts;
+    name = 'prompt_optimization';
+    constructor(modelCosts = DEFAULT_MODEL_COSTS) {
+        this.modelCosts = modelCosts;
+    }
+    async analyze(ctx) {
+        const recommendations = [];
+        const now = new Date().toISOString();
+        // Group calls by (agentId, model)
+        const groupMap = new Map();
+        // Session-level grouping for repeated context detection
+        const sessionCalls = new Map();
+        for (const evt of ctx.llmCallEvents) {
+            const payload = evt.payload;
+            const model = payload.model;
+            if (!model || !payload.messages)
+                continue;
+            const agentId = evt.agentId;
+            const groupKey = `${agentId}::${model}`;
+            // System prompt analysis
+            let group = groupMap.get(groupKey);
+            if (!group) {
+                group = { agentId, model, systemTokenCounts: [], sessionIds: new Set(), callCount: 0 };
+                groupMap.set(groupKey, group);
+            }
+            group.callCount++;
+            if (evt.sessionId)
+                group.sessionIds.add(evt.sessionId);
+            const systemMsgs = payload.messages.filter(m => m.role === 'system');
+            if (systemMsgs.length > 0) {
+                const totalLen = systemMsgs.reduce((sum, m) => sum + (m.content?.length ?? 0), 0);
+                const estimatedTokens = Math.ceil(totalLen / 4);
+                group.systemTokenCounts.push(estimatedTokens);
+            }
+            // Repeated context: hash first non-system message content as prefix
+            if (evt.sessionId) {
+                const sessionKey = `${evt.sessionId}::${model}`;
+                let sc = sessionCalls.get(sessionKey);
+                if (!sc) {
+                    sc = { agentId, model, prefixHashes: [] };
+                    sessionCalls.set(sessionKey, sc);
+                }
+                const nonSystem = payload.messages.filter(m => m.role !== 'system');
+                if (nonSystem.length > 0) {
+                    const prefix = nonSystem.map(m => m.content ?? '').join('|').slice(0, 500);
+                    const hash = createHash('md5').update(prefix).digest('hex');
+                    sc.prefixHashes.push(hash);
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        // Detect large system prompts
+        for (const [, group] of groupMap) {
+            if (group.systemTokenCounts.length === 0)
+                continue;
+            const sorted = [...group.systemTokenCounts].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+            const median = sorted[Math.floor(sorted.length / 2)];
+            if (median > SYSTEM_PROMPT_TOKEN_THRESHOLD) {
+                const reducible = Math.floor((median - SYSTEM_PROMPT_TOKEN_THRESHOLD) * 0.5);
+                const modelCost = lookupModelCost(group.model, this.modelCosts);
+                const inputCostPer1M = modelCost?.input ?? 3;
+                const savings = (reducible / 1_000_000) * inputCostPer1M * group.callCount * (30 / ctx.period);
+                if (savings <= 0)
+                    continue;
+                const id = createHash('sha256')
+                    .update(`prompt_optimization:system_prompt_size:${group.agentId}:${group.model}`)
+                    .digest('hex')
+                    .slice(0, 16);
+                const sessionArr = Array.from(group.sessionIds);
+                recommendations.push({
+                    id,
+                    category: 'prompt_optimization',
+                    estimatedMonthlySavings: Math.round(savings * 1_000_000) / 1_000_000,
+                    confidence: this.determineConfidence(group.callCount),
+                    difficulty: 'code_change',
+                    actionableSteps: [
+                        `Reduce system prompt for ${group.model} — median is ~${median} tokens, ${SYSTEM_PROMPT_TOKEN_THRESHOLD} recommended`,
+                        'Consider extracting static instructions into a reference doc or using prompt compression',
+                    ],
+                    agentId: group.agentId,
+                    evidence: { callsAnalyzed: group.callCount, period: ctx.period },
+                    createdAt: now,
+                    promptOptimization: {
+                        targetType: 'system_prompt_size',
+                        currentTokens: median,
+                        estimatedReducibleTokens: reducible,
+                        sampleSessionIds: sessionArr.slice(0, 3),
+                    },
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        // Detect repeated context within sessions
+        for (const [sessionKey, sc] of sessionCalls) {
+            if (sc.prefixHashes.length < 3)
+                continue;
+            // Count most frequent prefix hash
+            const freq = new Map();
+            for (const h of sc.prefixHashes) {
+                freq.set(h, (freq.get(h) ?? 0) + 1);
+            }
+            const maxFreq = Math.max(...freq.values());
+            const ratio = maxFreq / sc.prefixHashes.length;
+            if (ratio > REPEATED_CONTEXT_RATIO && maxFreq >= 3) {
+                // Estimate token savings: average message length of repeated prefix
+                const estimatedTokensSaved = 500; // conservative estimate per repeated call
+                const modelCost = lookupModelCost(sc.model, this.modelCosts);
+                const inputCostPer1M = modelCost?.input ?? 3;
+                const redundantCalls = maxFreq - 1;
+                const savings = (estimatedTokensSaved / 1_000_000) * inputCostPer1M * redundantCalls * (30 / ctx.period);
+                if (savings <= 0)
+                    continue;
+                const sessionId = sessionKey.split('::')[0];
+                const id = createHash('sha256')
+                    .update(`prompt_optimization:repeated_context:${sc.agentId}:${sessionId}`)
+                    .digest('hex')
+                    .slice(0, 16);
+                recommendations.push({
+                    id,
+                    category: 'prompt_optimization',
+                    estimatedMonthlySavings: Math.round(savings * 1_000_000) / 1_000_000,
+                    confidence: this.determineConfidence(sc.prefixHashes.length),
+                    difficulty: 'code_change',
+                    actionableSteps: [
+                        `Session has ${maxFreq} calls with repeated context prefix — consider caching or summarizing context`,
+                        'Use conversation summarization to reduce context window growth',
+                    ],
+                    agentId: sc.agentId,
+                    evidence: { callsAnalyzed: sc.prefixHashes.length, period: ctx.period },
+                    createdAt: now,
+                    promptOptimization: {
+                        targetType: 'repeated_context',
+                        currentTokens: estimatedTokensSaved * maxFreq,
+                        estimatedReducibleTokens: estimatedTokensSaved * redundantCalls,
+                        sampleSessionIds: [sessionId],
+                    },
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        return recommendations;
+    }
+    determineConfidence(callCount) {
+        if (callCount >= 50)
+            return 'high';
+        if (callCount >= 20)
+            return 'medium';
+        return 'low';
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=prompt-optimization.js.map

package/dist/lib/optimization/analyzers/prompt-optimization.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/lib/optimization/analyzers/types.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+/**
+ * Analyzer Plugin Interface (Feature 17 — Story 17.1)
+ */
+import type { IEventStore, AgentLensEvent, EnhancedRecommendation } from '@agentlensai/core';
+export interface AnalyzerContext {
+    store: IEventStore;
+    agentId?: string;
+    from: string;
+    to: string;
+    period: number;
+    limit: number;
+    /** Pre-fetched llm_call events (shared across analyzers) */
+    llmCallEvents: AgentLensEvent[];
+    /** Pre-fetched llm_response events (shared across analyzers) */
+    llmResponseEvents: AgentLensEvent[];
+    /** callId → llm_response event map */
+    responseMap: Map<string, AgentLensEvent>;
+}
+export interface Analyzer {
+    readonly name: string;
+    analyze(ctx: AnalyzerContext): Promise<EnhancedRecommendation[]>;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=types.d.ts.map

package/dist/lib/optimization/analyzers/types.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/lib/optimization/analyzers/types.js

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+/**
+ * Analyzer Plugin Interface (Feature 17 — Story 17.1)
+ */
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=types.js.map

package/dist/lib/optimization/analyzers/types.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"types.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../../../src/lib/optimization/analyzers/types.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;GAEG"}

package/dist/lib/optimization/classifier.d.ts

@@ -19,9 +19,10 @@ export interface ClassificationResult {
  * Classify an LLM call's complexity based on token usage and tool calls.
  *
  * Thresholds:
- *   Simple:   <500 input tokens AND 0 tool calls
- *   Moderate: 500-2000 input tokens OR 1-3 tool calls
- *   Complex:  >2000 input tokens OR 4+ tool calls
+ *   Simple:   <1000 input tokens AND 0 tool calls
+ *   Moderate: 1000-10000 input tokens OR 1-5 tool calls
+ *   Complex:  10000-50000 input tokens OR 6-15 tool calls
+ *   Expert:   >50000 input tokens OR 16+ tool calls
  *
  * When both input tokens and tool call count are unknown (null/undefined),
  * the function defaults to 'moderate' as the safest assumption.

package/dist/lib/optimization/classifier.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"classifier.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../../src/lib/optimization/classifier.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;GAMG;AAEH,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,cAAc,EAAsC,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAE5G,MAAM,WAAW,qBAAqB;IACpC,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACpB,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACrB,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACvB;AAED,MAAM,WAAW,oBAAoB;IACnC,IAAI,EAAE,cAAc,CAAC;IACrB,OAAO,EAAE,qBAAqB,CAAC;CAChC;AAED;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAcG;AACH,wBAAgB,sBAAsB,CACpC,SAAS,EAAE,cAAc,EACzB,aAAa,CAAC,EAAE,cAAc,GAAG,IAAI,GACpC,oBAAoB,CAkBtB"}
+{"version":3,"file":"classifier.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../../src/lib/optimization/classifier.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;GAMG;AAEH,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,cAAc,EAAsC,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAE5G,MAAM,WAAW,qBAAqB;IACpC,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACpB,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACrB,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACvB;AAED,MAAM,WAAW,oBAAoB;IACnC,IAAI,EAAE,cAAc,CAAC;IACrB,OAAO,EAAE,qBAAqB,CAAC;CAChC;AAED;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAeG;AACH,wBAAgB,sBAAsB,CACpC,SAAS,EAAE,cAAc,EACzB,aAAa,CAAC,EAAE,cAAc,GAAG,IAAI,GACpC,oBAAoB,CAkBtB"}

package/dist/lib/optimization/classifier.js

@@ -9,9 +9,10 @@
  * Classify an LLM call's complexity based on token usage and tool calls.
  *
  * Thresholds:
- *   Simple:   <500 input tokens AND 0 tool calls
- *   Moderate: 500-2000 input tokens OR 1-3 tool calls
- *   Complex:  >2000 input tokens OR 4+ tool calls
+ *   Simple:   <1000 input tokens AND 0 tool calls
+ *   Moderate: 1000-10000 input tokens OR 1-5 tool calls
+ *   Complex:  10000-50000 input tokens OR 6-15 tool calls
+ *   Expert:   >50000 input tokens OR 16+ tool calls
  *
  * When both input tokens and tool call count are unknown (null/undefined),
  * the function defaults to 'moderate' as the safest assumption.
@@ -85,17 +86,22 @@ function determineTier(inputTokens, toolCallCount) {
     if (!tokensKnown && !toolsKnown) {
         return 'moderate';
     }
-    // Check complex thresholds first (most restrictive)
-    if (tokensKnown && inputTokens > 2000)
+    // Check expert thresholds first (most restrictive)
+    if (tokensKnown && inputTokens > 50000)
+        return 'expert';
+    if (toolsKnown && toolCallCount >= 16)
+        return 'expert';
+    // Check complex thresholds
+    if (tokensKnown && inputTokens > 10000)
         return 'complex';
-    if (toolsKnown && toolCallCount >= 4)
+    if (toolsKnown && toolCallCount >= 6)
         return 'complex';
     // Check simple thresholds (requires BOTH conditions)
-    if (tokensKnown && inputTokens < 500 && toolsKnown && toolCallCount === 0) {
+    if (tokensKnown && inputTokens < 1000 && toolsKnown && toolCallCount === 0) {
         return 'simple';
     }
-    // If only tokens known and <500 with no tool info → can't confirm simple
-    if (tokensKnown && inputTokens < 500 && !toolsKnown) {
+    // If only tokens known and <1000 with no tool info → can't confirm simple
+    if (tokensKnown && inputTokens < 1000 && !toolsKnown) {
         return 'moderate';
     }
     // If only tools known and 0 with no token info → can't confirm simple

package/dist/lib/optimization/classifier.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/lib/optimization/cost-optimizer.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+/**
+ * CostOptimizer Façade (Feature 17 — Story 17.4)
+ *
+ * Orchestrates multiple analyzers in parallel, deduplicates results,
+ * sorts by savings, and returns EnhancedOptimizationResult.
+ */
+import type { IEventStore, ModelCosts, EnhancedOptimizationResult } from '@agentlensai/core';
+export declare class CostOptimizer {
+    private readonly store;
+    private readonly modelCosts;
+    private analyzers;
+    constructor(store: IEventStore, modelCosts?: ModelCosts);
+    getRecommendations(options: {
+        agentId?: string;
+        period: number;
+        limit: number;
+        includeCrossAgent?: boolean;
+    }): Promise<EnhancedOptimizationResult>;
+    private computeCategorySummary;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=cost-optimizer.d.ts.map

package/dist/lib/optimization/cost-optimizer.d.ts.map

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package/dist/lib/optimization/cost-optimizer.js

@@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
+/**
+ * CostOptimizer Façade (Feature 17 — Story 17.4)
+ *
+ * Orchestrates multiple analyzers in parallel, deduplicates results,
+ * sorts by savings, and returns EnhancedOptimizationResult.
+ */
+import { DEFAULT_MODEL_COSTS } from '@agentlensai/core';
+import { ModelDowngradeAnalyzer } from './analyzers/model-downgrade.js';
+import { PromptOptimizationAnalyzer } from './analyzers/prompt-optimization.js';
+const ALL_CATEGORIES = [
+    'model_downgrade',
+    'prompt_optimization',
+    'caching',
+    'tool_reduction',
+];
+export class CostOptimizer {
+    store;
+    modelCosts;
+    analyzers;
+    constructor(store, modelCosts = DEFAULT_MODEL_COSTS) {
+        this.store = store;
+        this.modelCosts = modelCosts;
+        this.analyzers = [
+            new ModelDowngradeAnalyzer(modelCosts),
+            new PromptOptimizationAnalyzer(modelCosts),
+        ];
+    }
+    async getRecommendations(options) {
+        const now = new Date();
+        const from = new Date(now.getTime() - options.period * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000).toISOString();
+        const to = now.toISOString();
+        // Pre-fetch events once
+        const [callResult, responseResult] = await Promise.all([
+            this.store.queryEvents({
+                eventType: 'llm_call',
+                agentId: options.agentId,
+                from,
+                to,
+                limit: 10_000,
+                order: 'asc',
+            }),
+            this.store.queryEvents({
+                eventType: 'llm_response',
+                agentId: options.agentId,
+                from,
+                to,
+                limit: 10_000,
+                order: 'asc',
+            }),
+        ]);
+        // Build response lookup
+        const responseMap = new Map();
+        for (const evt of responseResult.events) {
+            const payload = evt.payload;
+            if (payload.callId) {
+                responseMap.set(payload.callId, evt);
+            }
+        }
+        const ctx = {
+            store: this.store,
+            agentId: options.agentId,
+            from,
+            to,
+            period: options.period,
+            limit: options.limit,
+            llmCallEvents: callResult.events,
+            llmResponseEvents: responseResult.events,
+            responseMap,
+        };
+        // Run all analyzers in parallel
+        const results = await Promise.all(this.analyzers.map(a => a.analyze(ctx)));
+        // Flatten, deduplicate, sort
+        const seen = new Set();
+        let recommendations = [];
+        for (const recs of results) {
+            for (const rec of recs) {
+                if (!seen.has(rec.id)) {
+                    seen.add(rec.id);
+                    recommendations.push(rec);
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        recommendations.sort((a, b) => b.estimatedMonthlySavings - a.estimatedMonthlySavings);
+        recommendations = recommendations.slice(0, options.limit);
+        const totalPotentialSavings = recommendations.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.estimatedMonthlySavings, 0);
+        const byCategory = this.computeCategorySummary(recommendations);
+        return {
+            recommendations,
+            totalPotentialSavings: Math.round(totalPotentialSavings * 1_000_000) / 1_000_000,
+            period: options.period,
+            analyzedCalls: callResult.events.length,
+            byCategory,
+        };
+    }
+    computeCategorySummary(recommendations) {
+        const summary = {};
+        for (const cat of ALL_CATEGORIES) {
+            summary[cat] = { count: 0, totalSavings: 0 };
+        }
+        for (const rec of recommendations) {
+            const entry = summary[rec.category];
+            if (entry) {
+                entry.count++;
+                entry.totalSavings += rec.estimatedMonthlySavings;
+            }
+        }
+        // Round
+        for (const cat of ALL_CATEGORIES) {
+            summary[cat].totalSavings = Math.round(summary[cat].totalSavings * 1_000_000) / 1_000_000;
+        }
+        return summary;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=cost-optimizer.js.map

package/dist/lib/optimization/cost-optimizer.js.map

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package/dist/lib/optimization/engine.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"engine.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../../src/lib/optimization/engine.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;GAMG;AAEH,OAAO,KAAK,EACV,WAAW,EAGX,kBAAkB,EAClB,UAAU,EAKX,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AA8B3B,qBAAa,kBAAkB;IAE3B,OAAO,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,UAAU;gBAAV,UAAU,GAAE,UAAgC;IAGzD,kBAAkB,CACtB,KAAK,EAAE,WAAW,EAClB,OAAO,EAAE;QACP,OAAO,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QACjB,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;QACf,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;KACf,GACA,OAAO,CAAC,kBAAkB,CAAC;IAyM9B;;;OAGG;IACH,OAAO,CAAC,gBAAgB;IAwBxB,OAAO,CAAC,mBAAmB;CAK5B"}

package/dist/lib/optimization/engine.js

@@ -5,8 +5,20 @@
  * each complexity tier where a cheaper alternative has proven
  * reliable (≥95% success rate).
  */
-import { DEFAULT_MODEL_COSTS } from '@agentlensai/core';
+import { DEFAULT_MODEL_COSTS, lookupModelCost } from '@agentlensai/core';
 import { classifyCallComplexity } from './classifier.js';
+/** Allowed downgrade paths — only recommend within these */
+const DOWNGRADE_PATHS = {
+    'claude-opus-4-6': ['claude-sonnet-4-6', 'claude-sonnet-4'],
+    'claude-opus-4': ['claude-sonnet-4', 'claude-sonnet-4-6'],
+    'claude-sonnet-4-6': ['claude-haiku-4-5-20251001'],
+    'claude-sonnet-4': ['claude-haiku-4-5-20251001', 'claude-haiku-3.5'],
+    'gpt-4o': ['gpt-4o-mini'],
+    'gpt-4.1': ['gpt-4.1-mini', 'gpt-4.1-nano'],
+    'gpt-4.1-mini': ['gpt-4.1-nano'],
+};
+/** Minimum calls required at a tier before making a recommendation */
+const MIN_CALL_VOLUME = 20;
 export class OptimizationEngine {
     modelCosts;
     constructor(modelCosts = DEFAULT_MODEL_COSTS) {
@@ -101,37 +113,64 @@ export class OptimizationEngine {
         // 4. For each group, look for cheaper alternatives
         const recommendations = [];
         for (const [, group] of groups) {
+            // Never recommend downgrading expert tier
+            if (group.tier === 'expert')
+                continue;
+            // Require minimum call volume for the current model
+            if (group.callCount < MIN_CALL_VOLUME)
+                continue;
             const currentCostPerCall = group.callCount > 0 ? group.totalCost / group.callCount : 0;
             const currentSuccessRate = group.callCount > 0 ? group.successCount / group.callCount : 0;
             // Get effective cost rate for this model
             const currentModelCost = this.getModelCostRate(group);
             if (currentModelCost === null)
                 continue;
+            // Get allowed downgrade targets for this model
+            const allowedTargets = DOWNGRADE_PATHS[group.model];
+            if (!allowedTargets || allowedTargets.length === 0)
+                continue;
             // Find cheaper alternatives that have data at this tier
             for (const [, candidateGroup] of groups) {
                 if (candidateGroup.model === group.model)
                     continue;
                 if (candidateGroup.tier !== group.tier)
                     continue;
+                // Only recommend within allowed downgrade paths
+                if (!allowedTargets.includes(candidateGroup.model))
+                    continue;
+                // Require minimum call volume for the candidate at this tier
+                if (candidateGroup.callCount < MIN_CALL_VOLUME)
+                    continue;
                 const candidateCostRate = this.getModelCostRate(candidateGroup);
                 if (candidateCostRate === null)
                     continue;
                 // Must be cheaper
                 if (candidateCostRate >= currentModelCost)
                     continue;
-                // Must have ≥95% success rate
+                // Must have ≥98% success rate
                 const candidateSuccessRate = candidateGroup.callCount > 0
                     ? candidateGroup.successCount / candidateGroup.callCount
                     : 0;
-                if (candidateSuccessRate < 0.95)
+                if (candidateSuccessRate < 0.98)
                     continue;
                 const recommendedCostPerCall = candidateGroup.callCount > 0
                     ? candidateGroup.totalCost / candidateGroup.callCount
                     : 0;
-                const monthlySavings = (currentCostPerCall - recommendedCostPerCall) * group.callCount * (30 / period);
+                // Don't extrapolate wildly for short periods
+                let monthlySavings;
+                let confidence;
+                const savingsPerPeriod = (currentCostPerCall - recommendedCostPerCall) * group.callCount;
+                if (period < 7) {
+                    // Short period: don't extrapolate, use actual savings, lower confidence
+                    monthlySavings = savingsPerPeriod;
+                    confidence = 'low';
+                }
+                else {
+                    monthlySavings = savingsPerPeriod * (30 / period);
+                    confidence = this.determineConfidence(group.callCount);
+                }
                 if (monthlySavings <= 0)
                     continue;
-                const confidence = this.determineConfidence(group.callCount);
                 // Pick a representative agentId (first in set)
                 const agentId = group.agentIds.values().next().value ?? '';
                 recommendations.push({
@@ -165,7 +204,7 @@ export class OptimizationEngine {
      * Uses known model costs table, or falls back to actual cost data from events.
      */
     getModelCostRate(group) {
-        const knownCost = this.modelCosts[group.model];
+        const knownCost = lookupModelCost(group.model, this.modelCosts);
         if (knownCost) {
             // Weighted average using actual input/output ratio when available
             const totalTokens = group.totalInputTokens + group.totalOutputTokens;