@actuarial-ts/core 0.5.0 → 0.6.1

package/src/triangle.ts

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import type {
   TriangleKind,
 } from "./types.js";
 import { ReservingError } from "./types.js";
+import { isDiagnosticToken, isRealIsoDate } from "./diagnosticRuntime.js";
 
 /**
  * Builds development triangles from claim-level evaluation snapshots.
@@ -27,16 +28,12 @@ interface ParsedDate {
 }
 
 function parseISO(date: string): ParsedDate {
-  const match = /^(\d{4})-(\d{2})-(\d{2})/.exec(date);
-  if (!match) {
+  if (!isRealIsoDate(date))
     throw new ReservingError("BAD_DATE", `Invalid ISO date: "${date}"`);
-  }
+  const match = /^(\d{4})-(\d{2})-(\d{2})$/.exec(date)!;
   const y = Number(match[1]);
   const m = Number(match[2]);
   const d = Number(match[3]);
-  if (m < 1 || m > 12 || d < 1 || d > 31) {
-    throw new ReservingError("BAD_DATE", `Invalid ISO date: "${date}"`);
-  }
   return { y, m, d };
 }
 
@@ -90,6 +87,7 @@ export interface TriangleSet {
 
 interface ClaimTimeline {
   originIdx: number;
+  accidentISO: string;
   reportISO: string;
   /** Snapshots sorted ascending by evaluation date. */
   snapshots: ClaimSnapshot[];
@@ -101,9 +99,17 @@ export function buildTriangles(
 ): TriangleSet {
   const { cadence, asOfDate } = options;
   if (claims.length === 0) {
-    throw new ReservingError("NO_CLAIMS", "Cannot build triangles from an empty loss run");
+    throw new ReservingError(
+      "NO_CLAIMS",
+      "Cannot build triangles from an empty loss run",
+    );
   }
   const asOf = parseISO(asOfDate);
+  if (cadence !== "annual" && cadence !== "quarterly")
+    throw new ReservingError(
+      "BAD_ORIGIN",
+      "Cadence must be annual or quarterly",
+    );
   const asOfMonth = monthIndex(asOf);
   const asOfIsMonthEnd = asOf.d === daysInMonth(asOf.y, asOf.m);
   // The latest complete evaluation month.
@@ -115,15 +121,53 @@ export function buildTriangles(
   let minPeriod = Infinity;
   let maxPeriod = -Infinity;
   for (const snap of claims) {
+    if (!isDiagnosticToken(snap.claimId))
+      throw new ReservingError(
+        "BAD_ORIGIN",
+        "Claim id must be a nonempty token",
+      );
     const accident = parseISO(snap.accidentDate);
+    parseISO(snap.reportDate);
+    parseISO(snap.evaluationDate);
+    if (
+      snap.reportDate < snap.accidentDate ||
+      snap.evaluationDate < snap.reportDate
+    )
+      throw new ReservingError(
+        "BAD_DATE",
+        `Claim ${snap.claimId} dates must satisfy accident <= report <= evaluation`,
+      );
+    if (!Number.isFinite(snap.paidToDate) || !Number.isFinite(snap.caseReserve))
+      throw new ReservingError(
+        "BAD_LOSSES",
+        `Claim ${snap.claimId} contains a non-finite amount`,
+      );
+    if (snap.status !== "open" && snap.status !== "closed")
+      throw new ReservingError(
+        "BAD_LOSSES",
+        `Claim ${snap.claimId} has an invalid status`,
+      );
     if (snap.evaluationDate > asOfDate) continue; // beyond the analysis date
     const period = periodIndexOf(accident, cadence);
     minPeriod = Math.min(minPeriod, period);
     maxPeriod = Math.max(maxPeriod, period);
     let timeline = byClaim.get(snap.claimId);
     if (!timeline) {
-      timeline = { originIdx: period, reportISO: snap.reportDate, snapshots: [] };
+      timeline = {
+        originIdx: period,
+        accidentISO: snap.accidentDate,
+        reportISO: snap.reportDate,
+        snapshots: [],
+      };
       byClaim.set(snap.claimId, timeline);
+    } else if (
+      timeline.accidentISO !== snap.accidentDate ||
+      timeline.reportISO !== snap.reportDate
+    ) {
+      throw new ReservingError(
+        "BAD_ORIGIN",
+        `Claim ${snap.claimId} has conflicting accident or report dates across snapshots`,
+      );
     }
     timeline.snapshots.push(snap);
   }
@@ -135,13 +179,18 @@ export function buildTriangles(
   }
   for (const timeline of byClaim.values()) {
     timeline.snapshots.sort((a, b) =>
-      a.evaluationDate < b.evaluationDate ? -1 : a.evaluationDate > b.evaluationDate ? 1 : 0,
+      a.evaluationDate < b.evaluationDate
+        ? -1
+        : a.evaluationDate > b.evaluationDate
+          ? 1
+          : 0,
     );
   }
 
   const nOrigins = maxPeriod - minPeriod + 1;
   const origins: string[] = [];
-  for (let p = minPeriod; p <= maxPeriod; p++) origins.push(periodLabel(p, cadence));
+  for (let p = minPeriod; p <= maxPeriod; p++)
+    origins.push(periodLabel(p, cadence));
 
   // Ages available to the oldest origin period determine the column count.
   const oldestStart = periodStartMonth(minPeriod, cadence);
@@ -198,7 +247,8 @@ export function buildTriangles(
         else break;
       }
       const paid = state?.paidToDate ?? 0;
-      const caseReserve = state?.status === "open" ? (state?.caseReserve ?? 0) : 0;
+      const caseReserve =
+        state?.status === "open" ? (state?.caseReserve ?? 0) : 0;
       const isClosed = state?.status === "closed";
       add(set.reportedCount, i, j, 1);
       add(set.paid, i, j, paid);
@@ -223,13 +273,53 @@ export function triangleFromGrid(
   ages: number[],
   values: (number | null)[][],
 ): Triangle {
+  const kinds: readonly TriangleKind[] = [
+    "paid",
+    "incurred",
+    "caseReserve",
+    "reportedCount",
+    "openCount",
+    "closedCount",
+    "closedWithPayCount",
+  ];
+  if (!kinds.includes(kind))
+    throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", "Unknown triangle kind");
+  if (
+    origins.some((origin) => !isDiagnosticToken(origin)) ||
+    new Set(origins).size !== origins.length
+  ) {
+    throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", "Origins must be unique nonempty tokens");
+  }
+  if (
+    ages.some((age) => !Number.isSafeInteger(age) || age <= 0) ||
+    ages.some((age, index) => index > 0 && age <= ages[index - 1]!)
+  ) {
+    throw new ReservingError(
+      "SHAPE",
+      "Development ages must be finite positive safe integers in strictly ascending order",
+    );
+  }
   if (values.length !== origins.length) {
     throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", "Row count does not match origin count");
   }
   for (const row of values) {
     if (row.length !== ages.length) {
-      throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", "Column count does not match age count");
+      throw new ReservingError(
+        "SHAPE",
+        "Column count does not match age count",
+      );
+    }
+    if (row.some((value) => value !== null && !Number.isFinite(value))) {
+      throw new ReservingError(
+        "SHAPE",
+        "Observed triangle cells must be finite numbers",
+      );
     }
   }
-  return { kind, origins: [...origins], ages: [...ages], values: values.map((r) => [...r]) };
+  return {
+    kind,
+    origins: [...origins],
+    ages: [...ages],
+    values: values.map((r) => [...r]),
+  };
 }

package/src/types.ts

@@ -190,6 +190,10 @@ export interface MackResult {
   tailFactor?: number;
   /** Extrapolated sigma^2 for the tail step; present only when a tail was applied. */
   sigmaSquaredTail?: number;
+  /** Explicit tail-factor estimation error when supplied under Mack (1999). */
+  tailStandardError?: number;
+  /** Explicit tail random-error scale when supplied under Mack (1999). */
+  tailSigma?: number;
   rows: MackRow[];
   totals: {
     latest: number;
@@ -295,6 +299,198 @@ export interface DiagnosticFinding {
   message: string;
 }
 
+export type DiagnosticValidationErrorCode =
+  | "INVALID_DIAGNOSTIC_DEFINITION"
+  | "INVALID_DIAGNOSTIC_INPUT"
+  | "INVALID_DIAGNOSTIC_CONFIGURATION"
+  | "INVALID_DIAGNOSTIC_VIEW";
+
+export type DiagnosticValidationIssueCode =
+  | "missing-required"
+  | "invalid-type"
+  | "unknown-key"
+  | "invalid-string"
+  | "invalid-number"
+  | "invalid-json-value"
+  | "duplicate-id"
+  | "unknown-reference"
+  | "incompatible-semantics"
+  | "invalid-period"
+  | "invalid-input-relationship"
+  | "invalid-configuration"
+  | "expression-limit"
+  | "cycle";
+
+export type DiagnosticValidationDomain =
+  | "definition"
+  | "input"
+  | "configuration"
+  | "view";
+
+export interface DiagnosticValidationIssue {
+  readonly domain: DiagnosticValidationDomain;
+  readonly code: DiagnosticValidationIssueCode;
+  /** Canonical singular JSONPath, rooted at `$`. */
+  readonly path: string;
+  readonly message: string;
+}
+
+const DIAGNOSTIC_DOMAIN_ORDER: readonly DiagnosticValidationDomain[] = [
+  "definition",
+  "input",
+  "configuration",
+  "view",
+];
+
+const DIAGNOSTIC_ISSUE_ORDER: readonly DiagnosticValidationIssueCode[] = [
+  "missing-required",
+  "invalid-type",
+  "unknown-key",
+  "invalid-string",
+  "invalid-number",
+  "invalid-json-value",
+  "duplicate-id",
+  "unknown-reference",
+  "incompatible-semantics",
+  "invalid-period",
+  "invalid-input-relationship",
+  "invalid-configuration",
+  "expression-limit",
+  "cycle",
+];
+
+function compareCodeUnits(left: string, right: string): number {
+  return left === right ? 0 : left < right ? -1 : 1;
+}
+
+type DiagnosticPathSegment =
+  | { readonly kind: "property"; readonly value: string }
+  | { readonly kind: "index"; readonly value: number };
+
+function diagnosticPathSegments(
+  path: string,
+): readonly DiagnosticPathSegment[] {
+  const segments: DiagnosticPathSegment[] = [];
+  let cursor = 1;
+  while (cursor < path.length) {
+    if (path[cursor] === ".") {
+      const start = ++cursor;
+      while (
+        cursor < path.length &&
+        path[cursor] !== "." &&
+        path[cursor] !== "["
+      )
+        cursor++;
+      segments.push({ kind: "property", value: path.slice(start, cursor) });
+      continue;
+    }
+    if (path[cursor] === "[") {
+      const close = path.indexOf("]", cursor);
+      if (close < 0) return [{ kind: "property", value: path }];
+      const token = path.slice(cursor + 1, close);
+      if (/^\d+$/.test(token))
+        segments.push({ kind: "index", value: Number(token) });
+      else {
+        try {
+          segments.push({
+            kind: "property",
+            value: JSON.parse(token) as string,
+          });
+        } catch {
+          return [{ kind: "property", value: path }];
+        }
+      }
+      cursor = close + 1;
+      continue;
+    }
+    return [{ kind: "property", value: path }];
+  }
+  return segments;
+}
+
+function compareDiagnosticPaths(left: string, right: string): number {
+  if (left === right) return 0;
+  const a = diagnosticPathSegments(left);
+  const b = diagnosticPathSegments(right);
+  const length = Math.min(a.length, b.length);
+  for (let index = 0; index < length; index++) {
+    const x = a[index]!;
+    const y = b[index]!;
+    if (x.kind !== y.kind) return x.kind === "property" ? -1 : 1;
+    const compared =
+      x.kind === "index"
+        ? x.value -
+          (y as Extract<DiagnosticPathSegment, { kind: "index" }>).value
+        : compareCodeUnits(
+            x.value,
+            (y as Extract<DiagnosticPathSegment, { kind: "property" }>).value,
+          );
+    if (compared !== 0) return compared;
+  }
+  return a.length - b.length;
+}
+
+function normalizeDiagnosticIssues(
+  issues: readonly DiagnosticValidationIssue[],
+): readonly DiagnosticValidationIssue[] {
+  if (issues.length === 0) {
+    throw new Error("DiagnosticValidationError requires at least one issue");
+  }
+  const unique = new Map<
+    string,
+    Map<string, Map<string, Map<string, DiagnosticValidationIssue>>>
+  >();
+  for (const issue of issues) {
+    const normalized = Object.freeze({ ...issue });
+    const byCode = unique.get(issue.domain) ?? new Map();
+    unique.set(issue.domain, byCode);
+    const byPath = byCode.get(issue.code) ?? new Map();
+    byCode.set(issue.code, byPath);
+    const byMessage = byPath.get(issue.path) ?? new Map();
+    byPath.set(issue.path, byMessage);
+    if (!byMessage.has(issue.message)) byMessage.set(issue.message, normalized);
+  }
+  const flattened = [...unique.values()].flatMap((byCode) =>
+    [...byCode.values()].flatMap((byPath) =>
+      [...byPath.values()].flatMap((byMessage) => [...byMessage.values()]),
+    ),
+  );
+  return Object.freeze(
+    flattened.sort(
+      (left, right) =>
+        DIAGNOSTIC_DOMAIN_ORDER.indexOf(left.domain) -
+          DIAGNOSTIC_DOMAIN_ORDER.indexOf(right.domain) ||
+        DIAGNOSTIC_ISSUE_ORDER.indexOf(left.code) -
+          DIAGNOSTIC_ISSUE_ORDER.indexOf(right.code) ||
+        compareDiagnosticPaths(left.path, right.path) ||
+        compareCodeUnits(left.code, right.code) ||
+        compareCodeUnits(left.message, right.message),
+    ),
+  );
+}
+
+/** Public, deterministic validation failure for every generalized diagnostic boundary. */
+export class DiagnosticValidationError extends Error {
+  readonly code: DiagnosticValidationErrorCode;
+  readonly path: string;
+  readonly issues: readonly DiagnosticValidationIssue[];
+
+  constructor(issues: readonly DiagnosticValidationIssue[]) {
+    const normalized = normalizeDiagnosticIssues(issues);
+    super(normalized[0]!.message);
+    this.name = "DiagnosticValidationError";
+    this.issues = normalized;
+    this.path = normalized[0]!.path;
+    this.code = {
+      definition: "INVALID_DIAGNOSTIC_DEFINITION",
+      input: "INVALID_DIAGNOSTIC_INPUT",
+      configuration: "INVALID_DIAGNOSTIC_CONFIGURATION",
+      view: "INVALID_DIAGNOSTIC_VIEW",
+    }[normalized[0]!.domain] as DiagnosticValidationErrorCode;
+    Object.freeze(this);
+  }
+}
+
 /**
  * Every machine-readable code a ReservingError can carry. This registry is
  * public contract: consumers may switch exhaustively on ReservingErrorCode,

package/src/version.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+/** This package's runtime version. A test pins it to package.json. */
+export const CORE_PACKAGE_VERSION = "0.6.1";

package/dist/metricDiagnostics.d.ts

@@ -1,212 +0,0 @@
-import { type DiagnosticFinding } from "./types.js";
-export type SparseValuePolicy = "preserve-null" | "zero-fill";
-export type DiagnosticMeasureMap = Readonly<Record<string, number | null | undefined>>;
-export type MeasureExpression = {
-    op: "measure";
-    measure: string;
-} | {
-    op: "add";
-    terms: readonly MeasureExpression[];
-} | {
-    op: "subtract";
-    left: MeasureExpression;
-    right: MeasureExpression;
-};
-export interface DiagnosticWarning {
-    code: "MISSING_COMPONENT" | "NON_FINITE_COMPONENT" | "NON_FINITE_NUMERATOR" | "NON_FINITE_RESULT" | "INVALID_DENOMINATOR" | "INCOMPLETE_EXPOSURE" | "CONFLICTING_EXPOSURE" | "DUPLICATE_EXPOSURE_KEY" | "PAID_EXCEEDS_INCURRED" | (string & {});
-    message: string;
-    component?: string;
-    exposureKey?: string;
-}
-/** Adapts structured metric warnings to the existing core diagnostic finding vocabulary. */
-export declare function diagnosticWarningToFinding(warning: DiagnosticWarning): DiagnosticFinding;
-export interface MetricWarningRule {
-    code: "PAID_EXCEEDS_INCURRED";
-    when: "numerator-greater-than-denominator";
-    message: string;
-    tolerance?: number;
-}
-export interface MetricDefinition {
-    id: string;
-    version: string;
-    displayName: string;
-    description: string;
-    unit: "count-per-million" | "ratio" | "currency-per-exposure" | "currency-per-claim" | (string & {});
-    scale: number;
-    numerator: MeasureExpression;
-    denominator: MeasureExpression;
-    numeratorLabel: string;
-    denominatorLabel: string;
-    basis: string;
-    requiredComponents: readonly string[];
-    warningRules?: readonly MetricWarningRule[];
-    /** Optional pure caller rule for domain warnings beyond the built-in comparisons. */
-    evaluateWarnings?: (context: MetricWarningContext) => readonly DiagnosticWarning[];
-}
-export interface MetricWarningContext {
-    definition: MetricDefinition;
-    components: Readonly<Record<string, number | null>>;
-    rawNumerator: number | null;
-    rawDenominator: number | null;
-    value: number | null;
-}
-export interface MetricEvaluation {
-    metricId: string;
-    metricVersion: string;
-    value: number | null;
-    rawNumerator: number | null;
-    rawDenominator: number | null;
-    numeratorLabel: string;
-    denominatorLabel: string;
-    unit: MetricDefinition["unit"];
-    scale: number;
-    basis: string;
-    rawComponents: Record<string, number | null>;
-    warnings: DiagnosticWarning[];
-}
-export interface MeasureAggregateCell {
-    sum: number;
-    observed: number;
-    missing: number;
-    nonFinite: number;
-}
-/** Mergeable sufficient statistics: grouping in stages gives the same result. */
-export interface MeasureAggregate {
-    components: Record<string, MeasureAggregateCell>;
-}
-export declare function aggregateMeasures(rows: readonly DiagnosticMeasureMap[]): MeasureAggregate;
-export declare function mergeMeasureAggregates(aggregates: readonly MeasureAggregate[]): MeasureAggregate;
-export interface FinalizedMeasures {
-    measures: Record<string, number | null>;
-    warnings: DiagnosticWarning[];
-}
-export declare function finalizeMeasureAggregate(aggregate: MeasureAggregate, sparsePolicy?: SparseValuePolicy): FinalizedMeasures;
-export declare function measureExpressionComponents(expression: MeasureExpression): string[];
-export declare function evaluateMetric(definition: MetricDefinition, components: DiagnosticMeasureMap, inheritedWarnings?: readonly DiagnosticWarning[]): MetricEvaluation;
-export type LayerExpression = {
-    op: "measure";
-    measure: string;
-} | {
-    op: "add";
-    terms: readonly LayerExpression[];
-} | {
-    op: "claim-cap";
-    measure: string;
-    limit: number;
-};
-export interface AmountLayerDefinition {
-    id: string;
-    displayName: string;
-    paidMeasure: string;
-    incurredMeasure: string;
-    paid: LayerExpression;
-    incurred: LayerExpression;
-    /** Documents whether inputs are already limited or this layer caps claim rows. */
-    basis: "pre-capped-additive" | "claim-level-cap" | "unlimited-additive";
-}
-export interface DiagnosticClaimRow<T = unknown> {
-    dimensions: T;
-    measures: DiagnosticMeasureMap;
-}
-/** Applies claim caps before aggregation; this function intentionally accepts claim rows, not aggregates. */
-export declare function deriveAmountLayers<T>(rows: readonly DiagnosticClaimRow<T>[], layers: readonly AmountLayerDefinition[]): DiagnosticClaimRow<T>[];
-export interface DiagnosticLossRow<TDimensions = unknown> {
-    id: string;
-    group: string;
-    origin: string;
-    valuation: string;
-    ageMonths: number;
-    /** Optional caller-mapped policy/fiscal period (for example a Q3-Q2 year). */
-    policyPeriod?: string;
-    /** Optional caller-owned grouping metadata; `group` remains the stable key. */
-    dimensions?: TDimensions;
-    measures: DiagnosticMeasureMap;
-}
-export interface DiagnosticExposureRow<TDimensions = unknown> {
-    /** Stable exposure identity. Repeated snapshots with the same key count once. */
-    key: string;
-    group: string;
-    origin: string;
-    valuation?: string;
-    measures: DiagnosticMeasureMap;
-    complete?: boolean;
-    dimensions?: TDimensions;
-}
-export interface DiagnosticsFilter {
-    groups?: readonly string[];
-    origins?: readonly string[];
-    originFrom?: string;
-    originThrough?: string;
-    valuations?: readonly string[];
-    valuationFrom?: string;
-    valuationThrough?: string;
-    policyPeriods?: readonly string[];
-    minAgeMonths?: number;
-    maxAgeMonths?: number;
-}
-export interface DiagnosticEmergencePoint<TDimensions = unknown> {
-    group: string;
-    dimensions?: TDimensions;
-    origin: string;
-    valuation: string;
-    ageMonths: number;
-    components: Record<string, number | null>;
-    componentWarnings: DiagnosticWarning[];
-    metrics: Record<string, MetricEvaluation>;
-}
-export interface DiagnosticMetricTriangle {
-    group: string;
-    metricId: string;
-    origins: string[];
-    ages: number[];
-    values: (number | null)[][];
-    cells: (MetricEvaluation | null)[][];
-}
-export interface MetricDiagnosticsResult<TDimensions = unknown> {
-    emergence: DiagnosticEmergencePoint<TDimensions>[];
-    triangles: DiagnosticMetricTriangle[];
-    latestDiagonal: DiagnosticEmergencePoint<TDimensions>[];
-}
-export interface RunMetricDiagnosticsInput<TDimensions = unknown> {
-    losses: readonly DiagnosticLossRow<TDimensions>[];
-    exposures?: readonly DiagnosticExposureRow<TDimensions>[];
-    metrics: readonly MetricDefinition[];
-    sparsePolicy?: SparseValuePolicy;
-    filter?: DiagnosticsFilter;
-    /** Maps source group keys to requested aggregate keys before summation. */
-    groupMap?: Readonly<Record<string, string>>;
-    /** Metadata for mapped/combined output groups. */
-    groupDimensions?: Readonly<Record<string, TDimensions>>;
-}
-export interface DiagnosticExposureReconciliationFinding {
-    code: "DUPLICATE_EXPOSURE_KEY" | "CONFLICTING_EXPOSURE";
-    exposureKey: string;
-    group: string;
-    origin: string;
-    message: string;
-}
-export interface ReconciledDiagnosticExposures<TDimensions = unknown> {
-    exposures: DiagnosticExposureRow<TDimensions>[];
-    findings: DiagnosticExposureReconciliationFinding[];
-}
-/**
- * Reconciles stable exposure keys before aggregation. Identical valuation
- * copies collapse to one row. Conflicting copies become one incomplete/null
- * row so exposure-based metrics fail closed rather than using a partial base.
- */
-export declare function reconcileDiagnosticExposureKeys<TDimensions = unknown>(rows: readonly DiagnosticExposureRow<TDimensions>[]): ReconciledDiagnosticExposures<TDimensions>;
-/**
- * Generic quarterly diagnostics engine. Loss rows aggregate by
- * group/origin/valuation; exposure rows aggregate once by stable exposure key;
- * every metric then divides the aggregated expressions exactly once.
- */
-export declare function runMetricDiagnostics<TDimensions = unknown>(input: RunMetricDiagnosticsInput<TDimensions>): MetricDiagnosticsResult<TDimensions>;
-export declare function metricTriangleFromEmergence(points: readonly DiagnosticEmergencePoint<unknown>[], metricId: string): DiagnosticMetricTriangle;
-export declare function sameMaturity<TDimensions>(result: MetricDiagnosticsResult<TDimensions>, ageMonths: number, groups?: readonly string[]): DiagnosticEmergencePoint<TDimensions>[];
-export interface CommonMaturityResult<TDimensions = unknown> {
-    ageMonths: number | null;
-    points: DiagnosticEmergencePoint<TDimensions>[];
-}
-/** Latest maturity present in every selected group; selection is caller-defined. */
-export declare function commonMaturity<TDimensions>(result: MetricDiagnosticsResult<TDimensions>, groups: readonly string[]): CommonMaturityResult<TDimensions>;
-//# sourceMappingURL=metricDiagnostics.d.ts.map

package/dist/metricDiagnostics.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
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