@actuarial-ts/core 0.3.0 → 0.4.0

package/dist/metricDiagnostics.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/munichChainLadder.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/munichChainLadder.js

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { mackEstimators, extrapolateSigma2 } from "./mack.js";
 import { ReservingError } from "./types.js";
-import { isNum, lastObservedIndex } from "./util.js";
+import { assertSameShape, isNum, lastObservedIndex } from "./util.js";
 /** Cell usable for ratio work: both triangles observed, both strictly positive. */
 function usablePair(p, inc) {
     return isNum(p) && isNum(inc) && p > 0 && inc > 0;
@@ -8,12 +8,7 @@ function usablePair(p, inc) {
 export function runMunichChainLadder(paid, incurred, options = {}) {
     const n = paid.origins.length;
     const K = paid.ages.length;
-    if (incurred.origins.length !== n ||
-        incurred.ages.length !== K ||
-        paid.origins.some((o, i) => incurred.origins[i] !== o) ||
-        paid.ages.some((a, j) => incurred.ages[j] !== a)) {
-        throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", "Munich chain ladder needs paid and incurred triangles with identical origins and ages");
-    }
+    assertSameShape(paid, incurred, "Munich chain ladder needs paid and incurred triangles with identical origins and ages");
     for (const tri of [paid, incurred]) {
         if (tri.values.length !== n || tri.values.some((row) => row.length !== K)) {
             throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", "Triangle values must be a full origins x ages rectangle (null below the diagonal)");

package/dist/munichChainLadder.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/periods.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+export type QuarterNumber = 1 | 2 | 3 | 4;
+export interface QuarterPeriod {
+    year: number;
+    quarter: QuarterNumber;
+}
+export type QuarterFormat = "compact" | "hyphenated" | "quarter-first";
+export type DevelopmentAgeConvention = "quarter-end-first-observation" | "elapsed";
+/** Parses `2024Q3`, `2024-Q3`, or `Q3 2024`; no lexical date guessing. */
+export declare function parseQuarterPeriod(value: string): QuarterPeriod;
+export declare function formatQuarterPeriod(period: QuarterPeriod, format?: QuarterFormat): string;
+export declare function compareQuarterPeriods(a: QuarterPeriod | string, b: QuarterPeriod | string): number;
+export declare function sortQuarterPeriods<T extends QuarterPeriod | string>(periods: readonly T[]): T[];
+export declare function quarterIndex(period: QuarterPeriod): number;
+export declare function addQuarters(period: QuarterPeriod | string, count: number): QuarterPeriod;
+/**
+ * Development age in months. The default reflects quarter-end snapshots:
+ * the first observation in an origin quarter is age 3. Select `elapsed` only
+ * when the source genuinely defines a same-quarter observation as age zero.
+ */
+export declare function developmentAgeMonths(origin: QuarterPeriod | string, valuation: QuarterPeriod | string, convention?: DevelopmentAgeConvention): number;
+export interface PolicyPeriodOptions {
+    /** First calendar quarter in the policy/fiscal year. Defaults to Q1. */
+    startQuarter?: QuarterNumber;
+    /** Caller override for nonstandard labels or boundaries. */
+    mapper?: (period: QuarterPeriod) => string;
+}
+/** Maps a calendar quarter to the starting year of its policy/fiscal period. */
+export declare function policyPeriodLabel(period: QuarterPeriod | string, options?: PolicyPeriodOptions): string;
+export interface CompleteQuarterCutoffOptions {
+    /** Include the in-progress quarter. Default false: only completed quarters. */
+    includePartial?: boolean;
+}
+/** Returns the latest included quarter for an ISO calendar date. */
+export declare function completeQuarterCutoff(asOfDate: string, options?: CompleteQuarterCutoffOptions): QuarterPeriod;
+export interface CompleteQuarterlyCutoffsOptions {
+    originAsOfDate?: string;
+    valuationAsOfDate?: string;
+    includePartialOrigin?: boolean;
+    includePartialValuation?: boolean;
+}
+/** Explicit origin and valuation cutoffs, independently configurable. */
+export declare function completeQuarterlyCutoffs(asOfDate: string, options?: CompleteQuarterlyCutoffsOptions): {
+    originThrough: QuarterPeriod;
+    valuationThrough: QuarterPeriod;
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=periods.d.ts.map

package/dist/periods.d.ts.map

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package/dist/periods.js

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+import { ReservingError } from "./types.js";
+const QUARTER_PATTERNS = [
+    /^(\d{4})Q([1-4])$/i,
+    /^(\d{4})-Q([1-4])$/i,
+    /^Q([1-4])\s+(\d{4})$/i,
+];
+/** Parses `2024Q3`, `2024-Q3`, or `Q3 2024`; no lexical date guessing. */
+export function parseQuarterPeriod(value) {
+    const text = value.trim();
+    for (let i = 0; i < QUARTER_PATTERNS.length; i++) {
+        const match = QUARTER_PATTERNS[i].exec(text);
+        if (!match)
+            continue;
+        const quarterFirst = i === 2;
+        const year = Number(match[quarterFirst ? 2 : 1]);
+        const quarter = Number(match[quarterFirst ? 1 : 2]);
+        if (Number.isSafeInteger(year) && year >= 1 && year <= 9999)
+            return { year, quarter };
+    }
+    throw new ReservingError("BAD_ORIGIN", `Quarter period must be YYYYQn, YYYY-Qn, or Qn YYYY with n from 1 to 4; got ${JSON.stringify(value)}`);
+}
+export function formatQuarterPeriod(period, format = "compact") {
+    assertQuarterPeriod(period);
+    const year = String(period.year).padStart(4, "0");
+    if (format === "hyphenated")
+        return `${year}-Q${period.quarter}`;
+    if (format === "quarter-first")
+        return `Q${period.quarter} ${year}`;
+    return `${year}Q${period.quarter}`;
+}
+export function compareQuarterPeriods(a, b) {
+    const left = typeof a === "string" ? parseQuarterPeriod(a) : assertQuarterPeriod(a);
+    const right = typeof b === "string" ? parseQuarterPeriod(b) : assertQuarterPeriod(b);
+    return quarterIndex(left) - quarterIndex(right);
+}
+export function sortQuarterPeriods(periods) {
+    return [...periods].sort(compareQuarterPeriods);
+}
+export function quarterIndex(period) {
+    assertQuarterPeriod(period);
+    return period.year * 4 + period.quarter - 1;
+}
+export function addQuarters(period, count) {
+    if (!Number.isSafeInteger(count)) {
+        throw new ReservingError("BAD_ORIGIN", `Quarter offset must be an integer; got ${count}`);
+    }
+    const parsed = typeof period === "string" ? parseQuarterPeriod(period) : assertQuarterPeriod(period);
+    const index = quarterIndex(parsed) + count;
+    const year = Math.floor(index / 4);
+    const quarter = ((index % 4 + 4) % 4 + 1);
+    return assertQuarterPeriod({ year, quarter });
+}
+/**
+ * Development age in months. The default reflects quarter-end snapshots:
+ * the first observation in an origin quarter is age 3. Select `elapsed` only
+ * when the source genuinely defines a same-quarter observation as age zero.
+ */
+export function developmentAgeMonths(origin, valuation, convention = "quarter-end-first-observation") {
+    const o = typeof origin === "string" ? parseQuarterPeriod(origin) : assertQuarterPeriod(origin);
+    const v = typeof valuation === "string" ? parseQuarterPeriod(valuation) : assertQuarterPeriod(valuation);
+    const elapsed = quarterIndex(v) - quarterIndex(o);
+    if (elapsed < 0) {
+        throw new ReservingError("BAD_DATE", `Valuation quarter ${formatQuarterPeriod(v)} precedes origin quarter ${formatQuarterPeriod(o)}`);
+    }
+    return (elapsed + (convention === "quarter-end-first-observation" ? 1 : 0)) * 3;
+}
+/** Maps a calendar quarter to the starting year of its policy/fiscal period. */
+export function policyPeriodLabel(period, options = {}) {
+    const parsed = typeof period === "string" ? parseQuarterPeriod(period) : assertQuarterPeriod(period);
+    if (options.mapper)
+        return options.mapper({ ...parsed });
+    const startQuarter = options.startQuarter ?? 1;
+    if (![1, 2, 3, 4].includes(startQuarter)) {
+        throw new ReservingError("BAD_ORIGIN", `Policy-year startQuarter must be 1 through 4; got ${startQuarter}`);
+    }
+    const startYear = startQuarter === 1 || parsed.quarter >= startQuarter ? parsed.year : parsed.year - 1;
+    return String(startYear);
+}
+/** Returns the latest included quarter for an ISO calendar date. */
+export function completeQuarterCutoff(asOfDate, options = {}) {
+    const match = /^(\d{4})-(\d{2})-(\d{2})$/.exec(asOfDate);
+    if (!match)
+        throw new ReservingError("BAD_DATE", `asOfDate must be YYYY-MM-DD; got ${JSON.stringify(asOfDate)}`);
+    const year = Number(match[1]);
+    const month = Number(match[2]);
+    const day = Number(match[3]);
+    const leap = (year % 4 === 0 && year % 100 !== 0) || year % 400 === 0;
+    const daysInMonth = [31, leap ? 29 : 28, 31, 30, 31, 30, 31, 31, 30, 31, 30, 31];
+    if (year < 1 || year > 9999 || month < 1 || month > 12 || day < 1 || day > daysInMonth[month - 1]) {
+        throw new ReservingError("BAD_DATE", `asOfDate is not a valid calendar date: ${asOfDate}`);
+    }
+    const quarter = (Math.floor((month - 1) / 3) + 1);
+    if (options.includePartial)
+        return { year, quarter };
+    const endMonth = quarter * 3;
+    const endDay = daysInMonth[endMonth - 1];
+    if (month === endMonth && day === endDay)
+        return { year, quarter };
+    return addQuarters({ year, quarter }, -1);
+}
+/** Explicit origin and valuation cutoffs, independently configurable. */
+export function completeQuarterlyCutoffs(asOfDate, options = {}) {
+    return {
+        originThrough: completeQuarterCutoff(options.originAsOfDate ?? asOfDate, {
+            includePartial: options.includePartialOrigin,
+        }),
+        valuationThrough: completeQuarterCutoff(options.valuationAsOfDate ?? asOfDate, {
+            includePartial: options.includePartialValuation,
+        }),
+    };
+}
+function assertQuarterPeriod(period) {
+    if (!Number.isSafeInteger(period.year) ||
+        period.year < 1 ||
+        period.year > 9999 ||
+        ![1, 2, 3, 4].includes(period.quarter)) {
+        throw new ReservingError("BAD_ORIGIN", `Invalid quarter period ${JSON.stringify(period)}`);
+    }
+    return period;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=periods.js.map

package/dist/periods.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/util.d.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,14 @@
 /** Shared numeric helpers. All null-safe by construction. */
+import type { Triangle } from "./types.js";
 /** True when v is a usable finite number. */
 export declare function isNum(v: number | null | undefined): v is number;
+/**
+ * Shared origins/ages shape guard: throws ReservingError("SHAPE", message)
+ * unless both triangles have the same number of origins and ages AND the
+ * same origin/age labels in the same order. `message` is thrown verbatim,
+ * so callers own their exact wording.
+ */
+export declare function assertSameShape(a: Triangle, b: Triangle, message: string): void;
 /**
  * Safe ratio: returns null when either side is missing or the denominator
  * is missing, zero, or negative ("no factor", never an exception).

package/dist/util.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/util.js

@@ -1,8 +1,23 @@
 /** Shared numeric helpers. All null-safe by construction. */
+import { ReservingError } from "./types.js";
 /** True when v is a usable finite number. */
 export function isNum(v) {
     return typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v);
 }
+/**
+ * Shared origins/ages shape guard: throws ReservingError("SHAPE", message)
+ * unless both triangles have the same number of origins and ages AND the
+ * same origin/age labels in the same order. `message` is thrown verbatim,
+ * so callers own their exact wording.
+ */
+export function assertSameShape(a, b, message) {
+    if (a.origins.length !== b.origins.length ||
+        a.ages.length !== b.ages.length ||
+        a.origins.some((o, i) => o !== b.origins[i]) ||
+        a.ages.some((g, j) => g !== b.ages[j])) {
+        throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", message);
+    }
+}
 /**
  * Safe ratio: returns null when either side is missing or the denominator
  * is missing, zero, or negative ("no factor", never an exception).

package/dist/util.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@actuarial-ts/core",
-  "version": "0.3.0",
+  "version": "0.4.0",
   "description": "Pure, zero-dependency P&C loss reserving engine for TypeScript: triangles, chain ladder, Mack, Bornhuetter-Ferguson, Benktander, Cape Cod (Gluck decay), Munich chain ladder, Clark growth curves, frequency-severity, Berquist-Sherman, ULAE, discounting, tails, capping/ILF, trend/on-level, diagnostics, and a seeded stochastic layer (ODP bootstrap, Merz-Wuthrich one-year risk) — validated against published actuarial literature.",
   "license": "Apache-2.0",
   "type": "module",

package/src/berquist.ts

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import type {
   Triangle,
 } from "./types.js";
 import { ReservingError } from "./types.js";
-import { isNum, lastObservedIndex, ols, safeRatio } from "./util.js";
+import { assertSameShape, isNum, lastObservedIndex, ols, safeRatio } from "./util.js";
 
 /**
  * Berquist-Sherman adjustments (Berquist & Sherman 1977; Friedland ch. 13).
@@ -21,17 +21,6 @@ import { isNum, lastObservedIndex, ols, safeRatio } from "./util.js";
  * points within each origin row, not a scalar ratio shortcut.
  */
 
-function assertSameShape(a: Triangle, b: Triangle, what: string): void {
-  if (
-    a.origins.length !== b.origins.length ||
-    a.ages.length !== b.ages.length ||
-    a.origins.some((o, i) => o !== b.origins[i]) ||
-    a.ages.some((g, j) => g !== b.ages[j])
-  ) {
-    throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", `${what} triangles must share origins and ages`);
-  }
-}
-
 /** Last observed row index in a column; -1 when the column is empty. */
 function lastObservedRowInColumn(tri: Triangle, j: number): number {
   for (let i = tri.origins.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
@@ -51,8 +40,8 @@ export function berquistCaseAdequacy(
   openCounts: Triangle,
   options: CaseAdequacyOptions = {},
 ): BerquistCaseAdequacyResult {
-  assertSameShape(paid, incurred, "Paid and incurred");
-  assertSameShape(paid, openCounts, "Paid and open-count");
+  assertSameShape(paid, incurred, "Paid and incurred triangles must share origins and ages");
+  assertSameShape(paid, openCounts, "Paid and open-count triangles must share origins and ages");
   const nOrigins = paid.origins.length;
   const nAges = paid.ages.length;
   const warnings: string[] = [];
@@ -252,7 +241,7 @@ export function berquistSettlement(
   closedCounts: Triangle,
   options: SettlementOptions,
 ): BerquistSettlementResult {
-  assertSameShape(paid, closedCounts, "Paid and closed-count");
+  assertSameShape(paid, closedCounts, "Paid and closed-count triangles must share origins and ages");
   const { ultimateCounts } = options;
   const interpolation = options.interpolation ?? "exponential";
   const nOrigins = paid.origins.length;

package/src/caseOutstanding.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,12 @@
 import type { Triangle } from "./types.js";
 import { ReservingError } from "./types.js";
-import { isNum, lastJointObservedIndex, lastObservedIndex, safeRatio } from "./util.js";
+import {
+  assertSameShape,
+  isNum,
+  lastJointObservedIndex,
+  lastObservedIndex,
+  safeRatio,
+} from "./util.js";
 
 /**
  * Case-outstanding development technique (Friedland, "Estimating Unpaid
@@ -78,24 +84,16 @@ export interface CaseOutstandingResult {
   warnings: string[];
 }
 
-function assertSameShape(a: Triangle, b: Triangle): void {
-  const sameOrigins =
-    a.origins.length === b.origins.length && a.origins.every((o, i) => o === b.origins[i]);
-  const sameAges = a.ages.length === b.ages.length && a.ages.every((v, j) => v === b.ages[j]);
-  if (!sameOrigins || !sameAges) {
-    throw new ReservingError(
-      "SHAPE",
-      "The paid and case-outstanding triangles must share identical origins and development ages",
-    );
-  }
-}
-
 export function runCaseOutstanding(
   paid: Triangle,
   caseOutstanding: Triangle,
   options: CaseOutstandingOptions,
 ): CaseOutstandingResult {
-  assertSameShape(paid, caseOutstanding);
+  assertSameShape(
+    paid,
+    caseOutstanding,
+    "The paid and case-outstanding triangles must share identical origins and development ages",
+  );
   const nOrigins = paid.origins.length;
   const nAges = paid.ages.length;
   const nIntervals = nAges - 1;