@actuarial-ts/core 0.2.0 → 0.4.0

package/dist/freqSev.js

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 import { ReservingError } from "./types.js";
-import { isNum, lastObservedIndex, safeRatio } from "./util.js";
+import { assertSameShape, isNum, lastObservedIndex, safeRatio } from "./util.js";
 import { runChainLadder } from "./chainladder.js";
 /**
  * Average-severity triangle: cell-wise losses / counts. Null-safe: a
  * missing, zero, or negative count yields a null severity cell.
  */
 export function severityTriangle(lossTri, countTri) {
-    assertSameShape(lossTri, countTri);
+    assertSameShape(lossTri, countTri, "The loss and count triangles must share identical origins and development ages");
     return {
         kind: lossTri.kind,
         origins: [...lossTri.origins],
@@ -14,15 +14,8 @@ export function severityTriangle(lossTri, countTri) {
         values: lossTri.values.map((row, i) => row.map((loss, j) => safeRatio(loss ?? null, countTri.values[i][j] ?? null))),
     };
 }
-function assertSameShape(a, b) {
-    const sameOrigins = a.origins.length === b.origins.length && a.origins.every((o, i) => o === b.origins[i]);
-    const sameAges = a.ages.length === b.ages.length && a.ages.every((v, i) => v === b.ages[i]);
-    if (!sameOrigins || !sameAges) {
-        throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", "The loss and count triangles must share identical origins and development ages");
-    }
-}
 export function runFrequencySeverity(lossTri, countTri, options) {
-    assertSameShape(lossTri, countTri);
+    assertSameShape(lossTri, countTri, "The loss and count triangles must share identical origins and development ages");
     const warnings = [];
     const countCl = runChainLadder(countTri, {
         selected: options.countSelected,

package/dist/freqSev.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -14,6 +14,9 @@ export * from "./tail.js";
 export * from "./berquist.js";
 export * from "./clark.js";
 export * from "./diagnostics.js";
+export * from "./periods.js";
+export * from "./metricDiagnostics.js";
+export * from "./casualtyDiagnostics.js";
 export * from "./mack.js";
 export * from "./capping.js";
 export * from "./ilf.js";

package/dist/index.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/index.js

@@ -14,6 +14,9 @@ export * from "./tail.js";
 export * from "./berquist.js";
 export * from "./clark.js";
 export * from "./diagnostics.js";
+export * from "./periods.js";
+export * from "./metricDiagnostics.js";
+export * from "./casualtyDiagnostics.js";
 export * from "./mack.js";
 export * from "./capping.js";
 export * from "./ilf.js";

package/dist/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/mack.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/mack.js

@@ -174,11 +174,23 @@ export function runMack(tri, options = {}) {
         const ultimate = projected[i][K - 1] * tail;
         // mse(R_i) accumulated over the projected development range plus tail.
         let mse = 0;
+        let droppedColumns = 0;
         for (let k = last; k < K - 1; k++) {
             const cik = projected[i][k];
-            if (!(cik > 0))
+            if (!(cik > 0)) {
+                // Mack's 1/C_ik is undefined for a non-positive cumulative. Skipping
+                // the column is the only defensible arithmetic, but it removes real
+                // variance from the estimate, so the result must not present what
+                // remains as if it were the whole story.
+                droppedColumns++;
                 continue;
-            mse += ((sigma2[k] / fEff[k] ** 2) * (1 / cik + 1 / denomSums[k]));
+            }
+            mse += (sigma2[k] / fEff[k] ** 2) * (1 / cik + 1 / denomSums[k]);
+        }
+        if (droppedColumns > 0) {
+            warnings.push(`Origin ${tri.origins[i]} has a non-positive projected cumulative at ` +
+                `${droppedColumns} development step(s); those columns are excluded from its ` +
+                `standard error, which is therefore understated`);
         }
         if (tail !== 1 && projected[i][K - 1] > 0) {
             mse += (sigma2Tail / tail ** 2) * (1 / projected[i][K - 1] + 1 / denomTail);
@@ -195,30 +207,58 @@ export function runMack(tri, options = {}) {
             cv: reserve !== 0 ? Math.sqrt(mse) / reserve : null,
         });
     }
-    // Total mse: sum of row mse plus cross terms (Mack 1993 corollary). The
-    // tail step participates like one more development column.
+    // Total mse: sum of row mse plus the cross-covariance between every PAIR of
+    // accident years (Mack 1993 corollary). The tail step participates like one
+    // more development column.
+    //
+    // Two accident years share estimation error only over the columns they have
+    // BOTH yet to traverse, so each pair's sum starts at the maturity of the more
+    // developed of the two. That floor is per-pair: aggregating the later rows'
+    // ultimates before choosing it would assume maturity falls with row index —
+    // true of a tidy run-off triangle, false of a ragged or unsorted one, and the
+    // resulting total moved by up to 65% purely with row order.
     let totalMse = 0;
     for (let i = 0; i < n; i++)
         totalMse += mseByRow[i];
+    const maturity = tri.values.map((row) => lastObservedIndex(row));
+    const ultimateOf = (i) => projected[i][K - 1] * tail;
     for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
-        const lastI = lastObservedIndex(tri.values[i]);
-        if (lastI < 0 || (tail === 1 && lastI >= K - 1))
+        if (maturity[i] < 0)
             continue;
-        let laterUltimates = 0;
-        for (let j = i + 1; j < n; j++) {
-            if (lastObservedIndex(tri.values[j]) >= 0)
-                laterUltimates += projected[j][K - 1] * tail;
-        }
-        if (laterUltimates <= 0)
+        // Mack's 1/C terms are undefined for a non-positive ultimate; the row
+        // estimate skips such columns for the same reason (see above).
+        const ui = ultimateOf(i);
+        if (!(ui > 0))
             continue;
-        let inner = 0;
-        for (let k = lastI; k < K - 1; k++) {
-            inner += (2 * sigma2[k]) / fEff[k] ** 2 / denomSums[k];
+        // Partners are grouped by the floor their pair uses, and each group's
+        // ultimates are summed BEFORE multiplying. On a triangle whose maturity
+        // falls with row index every partner shares one floor, so this collapses
+        // to a single product in the original operand order — the arithmetic is
+        // then identical to the last bit, which is what keeps the frozen
+        // conformance corpus reproducible.
+        const partnerUltimatesByFloor = new Map();
+        for (let j = i + 1; j < n; j++) {
+            if (maturity[j] < 0)
+                continue;
+            const uj = ultimateOf(j);
+            if (!(uj > 0))
+                continue;
+            const floor = Math.max(maturity[i], maturity[j]);
+            partnerUltimatesByFloor.set(floor, (partnerUltimatesByFloor.get(floor) ?? 0) + uj);
         }
-        if (tail !== 1) {
-            inner += (2 * sigma2Tail) / tail ** 2 / denomTail;
+        for (const [floor, partnerUltimates] of partnerUltimatesByFloor) {
+            // Both years already run off: no shared development remains.
+            if (tail === 1 && floor >= K - 1)
+                continue;
+            let shared = 0;
+            for (let k = floor; k < K - 1; k++) {
+                shared += (2 * sigma2[k]) / fEff[k] ** 2 / denomSums[k];
+            }
+            if (tail !== 1) {
+                shared += (2 * sigma2Tail) / tail ** 2 / denomTail;
+            }
+            totalMse += ui * partnerUltimates * shared;
         }
-        totalMse += projected[i][K - 1] * tail * laterUltimates * inner;
     }
     const totals = rows.reduce((acc, r) => ({
         latest: acc.latest + r.latest,

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package/dist/metricDiagnostics.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,212 @@
+import { type DiagnosticFinding } from "./types.js";
+export type SparseValuePolicy = "preserve-null" | "zero-fill";
+export type DiagnosticMeasureMap = Readonly<Record<string, number | null | undefined>>;
+export type MeasureExpression = {
+    op: "measure";
+    measure: string;
+} | {
+    op: "add";
+    terms: readonly MeasureExpression[];
+} | {
+    op: "subtract";
+    left: MeasureExpression;
+    right: MeasureExpression;
+};
+export interface DiagnosticWarning {
+    code: "MISSING_COMPONENT" | "NON_FINITE_COMPONENT" | "NON_FINITE_NUMERATOR" | "NON_FINITE_RESULT" | "INVALID_DENOMINATOR" | "INCOMPLETE_EXPOSURE" | "CONFLICTING_EXPOSURE" | "DUPLICATE_EXPOSURE_KEY" | "PAID_EXCEEDS_INCURRED" | (string & {});
+    message: string;
+    component?: string;
+    exposureKey?: string;
+}
+/** Adapts structured metric warnings to the existing core diagnostic finding vocabulary. */
+export declare function diagnosticWarningToFinding(warning: DiagnosticWarning): DiagnosticFinding;
+export interface MetricWarningRule {
+    code: "PAID_EXCEEDS_INCURRED";
+    when: "numerator-greater-than-denominator";
+    message: string;
+    tolerance?: number;
+}
+export interface MetricDefinition {
+    id: string;
+    version: string;
+    displayName: string;
+    description: string;
+    unit: "count-per-million" | "ratio" | "currency-per-exposure" | "currency-per-claim" | (string & {});
+    scale: number;
+    numerator: MeasureExpression;
+    denominator: MeasureExpression;
+    numeratorLabel: string;
+    denominatorLabel: string;
+    basis: string;
+    requiredComponents: readonly string[];
+    warningRules?: readonly MetricWarningRule[];
+    /** Optional pure caller rule for domain warnings beyond the built-in comparisons. */
+    evaluateWarnings?: (context: MetricWarningContext) => readonly DiagnosticWarning[];
+}
+export interface MetricWarningContext {
+    definition: MetricDefinition;
+    components: Readonly<Record<string, number | null>>;
+    rawNumerator: number | null;
+    rawDenominator: number | null;
+    value: number | null;
+}
+export interface MetricEvaluation {
+    metricId: string;
+    metricVersion: string;
+    value: number | null;
+    rawNumerator: number | null;
+    rawDenominator: number | null;
+    numeratorLabel: string;
+    denominatorLabel: string;
+    unit: MetricDefinition["unit"];
+    scale: number;
+    basis: string;
+    rawComponents: Record<string, number | null>;
+    warnings: DiagnosticWarning[];
+}
+export interface MeasureAggregateCell {
+    sum: number;
+    observed: number;
+    missing: number;
+    nonFinite: number;
+}
+/** Mergeable sufficient statistics: grouping in stages gives the same result. */
+export interface MeasureAggregate {
+    components: Record<string, MeasureAggregateCell>;
+}
+export declare function aggregateMeasures(rows: readonly DiagnosticMeasureMap[]): MeasureAggregate;
+export declare function mergeMeasureAggregates(aggregates: readonly MeasureAggregate[]): MeasureAggregate;
+export interface FinalizedMeasures {
+    measures: Record<string, number | null>;
+    warnings: DiagnosticWarning[];
+}
+export declare function finalizeMeasureAggregate(aggregate: MeasureAggregate, sparsePolicy?: SparseValuePolicy): FinalizedMeasures;
+export declare function measureExpressionComponents(expression: MeasureExpression): string[];
+export declare function evaluateMetric(definition: MetricDefinition, components: DiagnosticMeasureMap, inheritedWarnings?: readonly DiagnosticWarning[]): MetricEvaluation;
+export type LayerExpression = {
+    op: "measure";
+    measure: string;
+} | {
+    op: "add";
+    terms: readonly LayerExpression[];
+} | {
+    op: "claim-cap";
+    measure: string;
+    limit: number;
+};
+export interface AmountLayerDefinition {
+    id: string;
+    displayName: string;
+    paidMeasure: string;
+    incurredMeasure: string;
+    paid: LayerExpression;
+    incurred: LayerExpression;
+    /** Documents whether inputs are already limited or this layer caps claim rows. */
+    basis: "pre-capped-additive" | "claim-level-cap" | "unlimited-additive";
+}
+export interface DiagnosticClaimRow<T = unknown> {
+    dimensions: T;
+    measures: DiagnosticMeasureMap;
+}
+/** Applies claim caps before aggregation; this function intentionally accepts claim rows, not aggregates. */
+export declare function deriveAmountLayers<T>(rows: readonly DiagnosticClaimRow<T>[], layers: readonly AmountLayerDefinition[]): DiagnosticClaimRow<T>[];
+export interface DiagnosticLossRow<TDimensions = unknown> {
+    id: string;
+    group: string;
+    origin: string;
+    valuation: string;
+    ageMonths: number;
+    /** Optional caller-mapped policy/fiscal period (for example a Q3-Q2 year). */
+    policyPeriod?: string;
+    /** Optional caller-owned grouping metadata; `group` remains the stable key. */
+    dimensions?: TDimensions;
+    measures: DiagnosticMeasureMap;
+}
+export interface DiagnosticExposureRow<TDimensions = unknown> {
+    /** Stable exposure identity. Repeated snapshots with the same key count once. */
+    key: string;
+    group: string;
+    origin: string;
+    valuation?: string;
+    measures: DiagnosticMeasureMap;
+    complete?: boolean;
+    dimensions?: TDimensions;
+}
+export interface DiagnosticsFilter {
+    groups?: readonly string[];
+    origins?: readonly string[];
+    originFrom?: string;
+    originThrough?: string;
+    valuations?: readonly string[];
+    valuationFrom?: string;
+    valuationThrough?: string;
+    policyPeriods?: readonly string[];
+    minAgeMonths?: number;
+    maxAgeMonths?: number;
+}
+export interface DiagnosticEmergencePoint<TDimensions = unknown> {
+    group: string;
+    dimensions?: TDimensions;
+    origin: string;
+    valuation: string;
+    ageMonths: number;
+    components: Record<string, number | null>;
+    componentWarnings: DiagnosticWarning[];
+    metrics: Record<string, MetricEvaluation>;
+}
+export interface DiagnosticMetricTriangle {
+    group: string;
+    metricId: string;
+    origins: string[];
+    ages: number[];
+    values: (number | null)[][];
+    cells: (MetricEvaluation | null)[][];
+}
+export interface MetricDiagnosticsResult<TDimensions = unknown> {
+    emergence: DiagnosticEmergencePoint<TDimensions>[];
+    triangles: DiagnosticMetricTriangle[];
+    latestDiagonal: DiagnosticEmergencePoint<TDimensions>[];
+}
+export interface RunMetricDiagnosticsInput<TDimensions = unknown> {
+    losses: readonly DiagnosticLossRow<TDimensions>[];
+    exposures?: readonly DiagnosticExposureRow<TDimensions>[];
+    metrics: readonly MetricDefinition[];
+    sparsePolicy?: SparseValuePolicy;
+    filter?: DiagnosticsFilter;
+    /** Maps source group keys to requested aggregate keys before summation. */
+    groupMap?: Readonly<Record<string, string>>;
+    /** Metadata for mapped/combined output groups. */
+    groupDimensions?: Readonly<Record<string, TDimensions>>;
+}
+export interface DiagnosticExposureReconciliationFinding {
+    code: "DUPLICATE_EXPOSURE_KEY" | "CONFLICTING_EXPOSURE";
+    exposureKey: string;
+    group: string;
+    origin: string;
+    message: string;
+}
+export interface ReconciledDiagnosticExposures<TDimensions = unknown> {
+    exposures: DiagnosticExposureRow<TDimensions>[];
+    findings: DiagnosticExposureReconciliationFinding[];
+}
+/**
+ * Reconciles stable exposure keys before aggregation. Identical valuation
+ * copies collapse to one row. Conflicting copies become one incomplete/null
+ * row so exposure-based metrics fail closed rather than using a partial base.
+ */
+export declare function reconcileDiagnosticExposureKeys<TDimensions = unknown>(rows: readonly DiagnosticExposureRow<TDimensions>[]): ReconciledDiagnosticExposures<TDimensions>;
+/**
+ * Generic quarterly diagnostics engine. Loss rows aggregate by
+ * group/origin/valuation; exposure rows aggregate once by stable exposure key;
+ * every metric then divides the aggregated expressions exactly once.
+ */
+export declare function runMetricDiagnostics<TDimensions = unknown>(input: RunMetricDiagnosticsInput<TDimensions>): MetricDiagnosticsResult<TDimensions>;
+export declare function metricTriangleFromEmergence(points: readonly DiagnosticEmergencePoint<unknown>[], metricId: string): DiagnosticMetricTriangle;
+export declare function sameMaturity<TDimensions>(result: MetricDiagnosticsResult<TDimensions>, ageMonths: number, groups?: readonly string[]): DiagnosticEmergencePoint<TDimensions>[];
+export interface CommonMaturityResult<TDimensions = unknown> {
+    ageMonths: number | null;
+    points: DiagnosticEmergencePoint<TDimensions>[];
+}
+/** Latest maturity present in every selected group; selection is caller-defined. */
+export declare function commonMaturity<TDimensions>(result: MetricDiagnosticsResult<TDimensions>, groups: readonly string[]): CommonMaturityResult<TDimensions>;
+//# sourceMappingURL=metricDiagnostics.d.ts.map

package/dist/metricDiagnostics.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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