@actuarial-ts/core 0.2.0 → 0.3.0

package/README.md

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ exist.
 
 `@actuarial-ts/core` is the numeric kernel of the actuarial-ts SDK. It is
 **designed to support the actuary's compliance with the Actuarial Standards of
-Practice** (ASOP Nos. 43, 23, 41, 56, 25, 36, 20, 21, 38, and 13) by making
+Practice** (ASOP Nos. 43, 23, 41, 56, 20, and 21) by making
 methods, assumptions, and their diagnostics explicit and reportable.
 Responsibility for compliance remains with the credentialed actuary; no
 software can be "ASOP-approved" and this one does not claim to be.
@@ -104,11 +104,15 @@ Three rules hold everywhere:
 | `trend` | `analyzeTrend`, `trendValue` (log-linear, windowed) | Werner & Modlin, *Basic Ratemaking* ch. 6 |
 | `onlevel` | `parallelogramOnLevel` (exact piecewise-linear earning geometry) | Werner & Modlin ch. 5 |
 | `diagnostics` | `runDiagnostics` (paid/incurred drift, case adequacy, closure rates), `calendarYearTest` | Mack (1994) calendar-year rank test |
+| `canonical` | `canonicalJson` (RFC 8785 / JCS canonical serialization), `fnv1a64` (integrity tagging aid — not a security control) | RFC 8785 |
 
 ## Validation against published results
 
-The test suite reproduces, from the primary sources (transcriptions under
-`docs/research/` in the repository):
+The test suite reproduces the following, each transcribed from the primary
+source into `test/fixtures/`. Five of them additionally carry a full research
+transcription with context and caveats under `docs/research/` (Clark,
+Merz-Wuthrich, England/Verrall, Munich, ULAE); for the rest the transcription
+notes live in the fixture file itself.
 
 - Mack (1993), ASTIN 23(2): Taylor/Ashe and mortgage-guarantee factors,
   reserves, sigma-squared (including the extrapolated column), standard errors.
@@ -118,7 +122,10 @@ The test suite reproduces, from the primary sources (transcriptions under
 - Mack (2000), ASTIN 30(2): the Benktander numerical example.
 - Gluck (1997), PCAS LXXXIV: Generalized Cape Cod Tables 1-4.
 - England (2002), IME 31: ODP bootstrap prediction errors and percentiles
-  on Taylor/Ashe.
+  on Taylor/Ashe — all nine published accident years plus the Table 3
+  predictive distribution. Asserted within the sampling error the publication
+  itself exhibits, because a bootstrap figure is one finite sample and cannot
+  be reproduced to the digit the way Mack's closed form can.
 - Merz & Wuthrich (2008): the Table 4 one-year CDR volatilities.
 - Clark (2003): both methods' fitted parameters, reserves, and variance
   decompositions (to ~1e-5).

package/dist/mack.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/mack.js

@@ -174,11 +174,23 @@ export function runMack(tri, options = {}) {
         const ultimate = projected[i][K - 1] * tail;
         // mse(R_i) accumulated over the projected development range plus tail.
         let mse = 0;
+        let droppedColumns = 0;
         for (let k = last; k < K - 1; k++) {
             const cik = projected[i][k];
-            if (!(cik > 0))
+            if (!(cik > 0)) {
+                // Mack's 1/C_ik is undefined for a non-positive cumulative. Skipping
+                // the column is the only defensible arithmetic, but it removes real
+                // variance from the estimate, so the result must not present what
+                // remains as if it were the whole story.
+                droppedColumns++;
                 continue;
-            mse += ((sigma2[k] / fEff[k] ** 2) * (1 / cik + 1 / denomSums[k]));
+            }
+            mse += (sigma2[k] / fEff[k] ** 2) * (1 / cik + 1 / denomSums[k]);
+        }
+        if (droppedColumns > 0) {
+            warnings.push(`Origin ${tri.origins[i]} has a non-positive projected cumulative at ` +
+                `${droppedColumns} development step(s); those columns are excluded from its ` +
+                `standard error, which is therefore understated`);
         }
         if (tail !== 1 && projected[i][K - 1] > 0) {
             mse += (sigma2Tail / tail ** 2) * (1 / projected[i][K - 1] + 1 / denomTail);
@@ -195,30 +207,58 @@ export function runMack(tri, options = {}) {
             cv: reserve !== 0 ? Math.sqrt(mse) / reserve : null,
         });
     }
-    // Total mse: sum of row mse plus cross terms (Mack 1993 corollary). The
-    // tail step participates like one more development column.
+    // Total mse: sum of row mse plus the cross-covariance between every PAIR of
+    // accident years (Mack 1993 corollary). The tail step participates like one
+    // more development column.
+    //
+    // Two accident years share estimation error only over the columns they have
+    // BOTH yet to traverse, so each pair's sum starts at the maturity of the more
+    // developed of the two. That floor is per-pair: aggregating the later rows'
+    // ultimates before choosing it would assume maturity falls with row index —
+    // true of a tidy run-off triangle, false of a ragged or unsorted one, and the
+    // resulting total moved by up to 65% purely with row order.
     let totalMse = 0;
     for (let i = 0; i < n; i++)
         totalMse += mseByRow[i];
+    const maturity = tri.values.map((row) => lastObservedIndex(row));
+    const ultimateOf = (i) => projected[i][K - 1] * tail;
     for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
-        const lastI = lastObservedIndex(tri.values[i]);
-        if (lastI < 0 || (tail === 1 && lastI >= K - 1))
+        if (maturity[i] < 0)
             continue;
-        let laterUltimates = 0;
-        for (let j = i + 1; j < n; j++) {
-            if (lastObservedIndex(tri.values[j]) >= 0)
-                laterUltimates += projected[j][K - 1] * tail;
-        }
-        if (laterUltimates <= 0)
+        // Mack's 1/C terms are undefined for a non-positive ultimate; the row
+        // estimate skips such columns for the same reason (see above).
+        const ui = ultimateOf(i);
+        if (!(ui > 0))
             continue;
-        let inner = 0;
-        for (let k = lastI; k < K - 1; k++) {
-            inner += (2 * sigma2[k]) / fEff[k] ** 2 / denomSums[k];
+        // Partners are grouped by the floor their pair uses, and each group's
+        // ultimates are summed BEFORE multiplying. On a triangle whose maturity
+        // falls with row index every partner shares one floor, so this collapses
+        // to a single product in the original operand order — the arithmetic is
+        // then identical to the last bit, which is what keeps the frozen
+        // conformance corpus reproducible.
+        const partnerUltimatesByFloor = new Map();
+        for (let j = i + 1; j < n; j++) {
+            if (maturity[j] < 0)
+                continue;
+            const uj = ultimateOf(j);
+            if (!(uj > 0))
+                continue;
+            const floor = Math.max(maturity[i], maturity[j]);
+            partnerUltimatesByFloor.set(floor, (partnerUltimatesByFloor.get(floor) ?? 0) + uj);
         }
-        if (tail !== 1) {
-            inner += (2 * sigma2Tail) / tail ** 2 / denomTail;
+        for (const [floor, partnerUltimates] of partnerUltimatesByFloor) {
+            // Both years already run off: no shared development remains.
+            if (tail === 1 && floor >= K - 1)
+                continue;
+            let shared = 0;
+            for (let k = floor; k < K - 1; k++) {
+                shared += (2 * sigma2[k]) / fEff[k] ** 2 / denomSums[k];
+            }
+            if (tail !== 1) {
+                shared += (2 * sigma2Tail) / tail ** 2 / denomTail;
+            }
+            totalMse += ui * partnerUltimates * shared;
         }
-        totalMse += projected[i][K - 1] * tail * laterUltimates * inner;
     }
     const totals = rows.reduce((acc, r) => ({
         latest: acc.latest + r.latest,

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package/dist/odpBootstrap.d.ts

@@ -10,8 +10,12 @@ import { type StochasticResult } from "./stochastic.js";
  *   latest observed cumulative, divide back through the volume-weighted
  *   factors, and difference.
  * - Unscaled Pearson residuals r = (q - m) / sqrt(m) on incrementals; the
- *   scale parameter is phi = sum(r^2) / (n - p) with n = observed
- *   incrementals and p = 2I - 1 parameters for an I-origin triangle.
+ *   scale parameter is phi = sum(r^2) / (n - p) with p = 2I - 1 parameters for
+ *   an I-origin triangle and n = the incrementals that CONTRIBUTE a residual.
+ *   On a well-behaved triangle that is every observed incremental, but a
+ *   non-positive fitted mean leaves the residual undefined: such a cell is
+ *   absent from the numerator, so counting it in the denominator would divide
+ *   the sum of squares by degrees of freedom it never earned.
  * - Resampling: draw residuals with replacement onto the fitted past
  *   (q* = m + r sqrt(m)), cumulate, refit volume-weighted factors, project
  *   each future incremental, and add process variance by sampling
@@ -40,7 +44,9 @@ export interface OdpFit {
         reserve: number;
     }[];
     phi: number;
+    /** Incrementals contributing a residual — the dispersion's numerator count. */
     n: number;
+    /** Fitted parameters, 2I - 1 for an I-origin triangle. */
     p: number;
     /** Residuals actually in the resampling pool (structural zeros excluded). */
     poolSize: number;

package/dist/odpBootstrap.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/odpBootstrap.js

@@ -75,11 +75,16 @@ export function odpFit(tri) {
             const m = fittedIncrementals[i][j] ?? null;
             if (!isNum(q) || !isNum(m))
                 continue;
-            n++;
             if (m <= 0) {
+                // The Pearson residual (q - m)/sqrt(m) is undefined for a non-positive
+                // fitted mean, so this cell contributes nothing to `sumSq` — and must
+                // therefore not count toward the degrees of freedom that divide it.
+                // Counting it would inflate `n - p`, understating phi and with it the
+                // process variance, which is the wrong direction for a reserve range.
                 negativeFitted++;
                 continue;
             }
+            n++;
             const r = (q - m) / Math.sqrt(m);
             sumSq += r * r;
             if (Math.abs(r) > 1e-10) {
@@ -96,7 +101,11 @@ export function odpFit(tri) {
     }
     const p = 2 * I - 1;
     if (n <= p) {
-        throw new ReservingError("TOO_SMALL", `The ODP fit has ${n} observations for ${p} parameters; no degrees of freedom remain`);
+        throw new ReservingError("TOO_SMALL", `The ODP fit has ${n} usable residual(s) for ${p} parameters; no degrees of ` +
+            `freedom remain to estimate dispersion` +
+            (negativeFitted > 0
+                ? ` (${negativeFitted} cell(s) were excluded for a non-positive fitted mean)`
+                : ""));
     }
     const phi = sumSq / (n - p);
     // Future incremental means from the fitted projection.

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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@actuarial-ts/core",
-  "version": "0.2.0",
+  "version": "0.3.0",
   "description": "Pure, zero-dependency P&C loss reserving engine for TypeScript: triangles, chain ladder, Mack, Bornhuetter-Ferguson, Benktander, Cape Cod (Gluck decay), Munich chain ladder, Clark growth curves, frequency-severity, Berquist-Sherman, ULAE, discounting, tails, capping/ILF, trend/on-level, diagnostics, and a seeded stochastic layer (ODP bootstrap, Merz-Wuthrich one-year risk) — validated against published actuarial literature.",
   "license": "Apache-2.0",
   "type": "module",
@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@
   },
   "files": [
     "dist",
+    "src",
     "README.md",
     "LICENSE",
     "NOTICE"
@@ -57,6 +58,7 @@
     "prepack": "tsc -p tsconfig.build.json"
   },
   "devDependencies": {
+    "@types/node": "^22.10.5",
     "typescript": "^5.7.3",
     "vitest": "^3.0.5"
   },

package/src/benktander.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
+import type { BornhuetterFergusonResult, ChainLadderResult } from "./types.js";
+import { ReservingError } from "./types.js";
+
+/**
+ * Benktander-Hovinen method (the "iterated Bornhuetter-Ferguson").
+ *
+ * Ground truth (Mack 2000, "Credible Claims Reserves: The Benktander
+ * Method", ASTIN Bulletin 30(2)):
+ * - With q = 1 - 1/CDF (the expected unreported/unpaid fraction) and C the
+ *   losses to date: U_GB = C + q x U_BF — Bornhuetter-Ferguson applied once
+ *   more, with the BF ultimate as the a-priori.
+ * - Equivalently a credibility mixture U_GB = (1-q) x U_CL + q x U_BF with
+ *   credibility Z = 1-q on the chain ladder: mature periods lean on CL,
+ *   green periods lean on the a-priori — automatically.
+ * - Mack (2000) shows U_GB has a smaller mean squared error than both CL and
+ *   BF over a wide parameter range; it is the standard "use both" answer.
+ *
+ * Rows are the BF result's rows (BF excludes origins with no usable
+ * premium; those stay excluded here). CDFs below 1 (incurred bases with
+ * expected downward development) make q negative — the estimator still
+ * evaluates, but it is an extrapolation past the chain ladder rather than a
+ * mixture, and the result says so in warnings.
+ */
+
+export interface BenktanderRow {
+  origin: string;
+  latestValue: number;
+  cdf: number;
+  /** Credibility on the chain ladder: Z = 1 - q = 1/CDF. */
+  credibilityZ: number;
+  clUltimate: number;
+  bfUltimate: number;
+  ultimate: number;
+  unpaid: number;
+}
+
+export interface BenktanderResult {
+  method: "benktander";
+  basis: BornhuetterFergusonResult["basis"];
+  rows: BenktanderRow[];
+  totals: { latest: number; ultimate: number; unpaid: number };
+  warnings: string[];
+}
+
+export function runBenktander(
+  chainLadder: ChainLadderResult,
+  bf: BornhuetterFergusonResult,
+): BenktanderResult {
+  const warnings: string[] = [];
+  const clByOrigin = new Map(chainLadder.rows.map((r) => [r.origin, r]));
+
+  const rows: BenktanderRow[] = bf.rows.map((bfRow) => {
+    const cl = clByOrigin.get(bfRow.origin);
+    if (!cl) {
+      throw new ReservingError(
+        "SHAPE",
+        `Origin ${bfRow.origin} is in the Bornhuetter-Ferguson result but missing from the chain ladder result; both must come from the same run`,
+      );
+    }
+    const q = 1 - 1 / bfRow.cdf;
+    if (q < 0) {
+      warnings.push(
+        `Origin ${bfRow.origin}: CDF ${bfRow.cdf.toFixed(3)} is below 1, so Benktander extrapolates past the chain ladder rather than blending (expected downward development)`,
+      );
+    }
+    const ultimate = bfRow.latestValue + q * bfRow.ultimate;
+    return {
+      origin: bfRow.origin,
+      latestValue: bfRow.latestValue,
+      cdf: bfRow.cdf,
+      credibilityZ: 1 - q,
+      clUltimate: cl.ultimate,
+      bfUltimate: bfRow.ultimate,
+      ultimate,
+      unpaid: ultimate - bfRow.latestValue,
+    };
+  });
+
+  return {
+    method: "benktander",
+    basis: bf.basis,
+    rows,
+    totals: {
+      latest: rows.reduce((a, r) => a + r.latestValue, 0),
+      ultimate: rows.reduce((a, r) => a + r.ultimate, 0),
+      unpaid: rows.reduce((a, r) => a + r.unpaid, 0),
+    },
+    warnings,
+  };
+}