@actuarial-ts/core 0.10.0 → 0.12.0

package/dist/diagnosticSourceOrdering.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/mack.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/mack.js

@@ -172,6 +172,26 @@ export function runMack(tri, options = {}) {
             warnings.push("The tail step's standard-error contribution extrapolates sigma^2 beyond the observed columns and reuses the final column's volume; supply tailStandardError and tailSigma for the explicit Mack (1999) treatment");
     }
     // Project the full rectangle with the projection factors.
+    // A non-positive projection factor makes Mack's variance terms undefined:
+    // every one of them divides by f_k^2. The SELECTED path above coerces such a
+    // factor to 1.000 with a warning; the volume-weighted path must not silently
+    // do the same, because f_k there IS the data's own estimate and changing it
+    // would change the projection. Instead the affected columns are excluded from
+    // the variance and the result says so. Without this the column contributes
+    // sigma^2/0 = Infinity, which the ultimate (collapsed to 0 by the same zero
+    // factor) then turns into NaN - a standard error that serializes as null.
+    const degenerateFactorColumns = new Set();
+    for (let k = 0; k < K - 1; k++)
+        if (!(fEff[k] > 0))
+            degenerateFactorColumns.add(k);
+    if (degenerateFactorColumns.size > 0) {
+        const intervals = [...degenerateFactorColumns]
+            .map((k) => `${tri.ages[k]}-${tri.ages[k + 1]}`)
+            .join(", ");
+        warnings.push(`Development factor for ${intervals} months is not positive; Mack's variance ` +
+            `is undefined there, so those columns are excluded from every standard error, ` +
+            `which is therefore understated`);
+    }
     const projected = tri.values.map((row) => {
         const out = new Array(K).fill(NaN);
         const last = lastObservedIndex(row);
@@ -193,6 +213,9 @@ export function runMack(tri, options = {}) {
         let mse = 0;
         let droppedColumns = 0;
         for (let k = last; k < K - 1; k++) {
+            // Excluded globally above, with a warning naming the interval.
+            if (degenerateFactorColumns.has(k))
+                continue;
             const cik = projected[i][k];
             if (!(cik > 0)) {
                 // Mack's 1/C_ik is undefined for a non-positive cumulative. Skipping
@@ -274,6 +297,8 @@ export function runMack(tri, options = {}) {
                 continue;
             let shared = 0;
             for (let k = floor; k < K - 1; k++) {
+                if (degenerateFactorColumns.has(k))
+                    continue;
                 shared += (2 * sigma2[k]) / fEff[k] ** 2 / denomSums[k];
             }
             if (tail !== 1) {
@@ -290,6 +315,16 @@ export function runMack(tri, options = {}) {
         reserve: acc.reserve + r.reserve,
     }), { latest: 0, ultimate: 0, reserve: 0 });
     const totalSe = Math.sqrt(totalMse);
+    // Safety net, not the primary path: every degeneracy above is handled by
+    // excluding a column with a warning, so nothing here should be non-finite.
+    // A standard error that escapes as NaN serializes to JSON as `null`, which a
+    // reader cannot distinguish from "not computed" - so refuse loudly instead.
+    for (const r of rows) {
+        if (!Number.isFinite(r.standardError))
+            throw new ReservingError("DEGENERATE_TRIANGLE", `Standard error for origin ${r.origin} is not finite; the triangle is degenerate for Mack's model`);
+    }
+    if (!Number.isFinite(totalSe))
+        throw new ReservingError("DEGENERATE_TRIANGLE", "Total standard error is not finite; the triangle is degenerate for Mack's model");
     return {
         method: "mack",
         developmentFactors: fEff,

package/dist/mack.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/types.d.ts

@@ -291,7 +291,7 @@ export declare class DiagnosticValidationError extends Error {
  * and test/registry.test.ts enforces that the list matches every constructor
  * site in source. Add the code here when introducing a new throw.
  */
-export declare const RESERVING_ERROR_CODES: readonly ["BAD_ADJ", "BAD_CAP", "BAD_CASHFLOWS", "BAD_CDF", "BAD_COUNTS", "BAD_DATE", "BAD_ELR", "BAD_FIT", "BAD_INTERCHANGE", "BAD_LIMIT", "BAD_LOSSES", "BAD_MARGIN", "BAD_ORIGIN", "BAD_PERCENTILE", "BAD_PREMIUM", "BAD_RATE", "BAD_RATE_CHANGE", "BAD_RATIO", "BAD_SEED", "BAD_SHAPE", "BAD_TABLE", "BAD_TAIL", "BAD_TREND", "BAD_WEIGHTS", "INCOHERENT_SELECTION", "INFINITE_MEAN", "NO_APRIORI", "NO_BF_ROWS", "NO_CLAIMS", "NO_DATA", "NO_DEVELOPMENT", "NO_FACTOR", "NO_PROVENANCE", "NO_SELECTIONS", "SELECTION_SHAPE", "SHAPE", "TABLE_RANGE", "TOO_SMALL", "UNSUPPORTED_VALUE", "UNSUPPORTED_VERSION"];
+export declare const RESERVING_ERROR_CODES: readonly ["BAD_ADJ", "BAD_CAP", "BAD_CASHFLOWS", "BAD_CDF", "BAD_COUNTS", "BAD_DATE", "BAD_ELR", "BAD_FIT", "BAD_INTERCHANGE", "BAD_LIMIT", "BAD_LOSSES", "BAD_MARGIN", "DEGENERATE_TRIANGLE", "BAD_ORIGIN", "BAD_PERCENTILE", "BAD_PREMIUM", "BAD_RATE", "BAD_RATE_CHANGE", "BAD_RATIO", "BAD_SEED", "BAD_SHAPE", "BAD_TABLE", "BAD_TAIL", "BAD_TREND", "BAD_WEIGHTS", "INCOHERENT_SELECTION", "INFINITE_MEAN", "NO_APRIORI", "NO_BF_ROWS", "NO_CLAIMS", "NO_DATA", "NO_DEVELOPMENT", "NO_FACTOR", "NO_PROVENANCE", "NO_SELECTIONS", "SELECTION_SHAPE", "SHAPE", "TABLE_RANGE", "TOO_SMALL", "UNSUPPORTED_VALUE", "UNSUPPORTED_VERSION"];
 export type ReservingErrorCode = (typeof RESERVING_ERROR_CODES)[number];
 /** Thrown for invalid analysis input (all-missing selections, shape mismatches). */
 export declare class ReservingError extends Error {

package/dist/types.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/types.js

@@ -170,6 +170,7 @@ export const RESERVING_ERROR_CODES = [
     "BAD_LIMIT",
     "BAD_LOSSES",
     "BAD_MARGIN",
+    "DEGENERATE_TRIANGLE",
     "BAD_ORIGIN",
     "BAD_PERCENTILE",
     "BAD_PREMIUM",

package/dist/types.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/version.d.ts

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
 /** This package's runtime version. A test pins it to package.json. */
-export declare const CORE_PACKAGE_VERSION = "0.10.0";
+export declare const CORE_PACKAGE_VERSION = "0.12.0";
 //# sourceMappingURL=version.d.ts.map

package/dist/version.js

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
 /** This package's runtime version. A test pins it to package.json. */
-export const CORE_PACKAGE_VERSION = "0.10.0";
+export const CORE_PACKAGE_VERSION = "0.12.0";
 //# sourceMappingURL=version.js.map

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@actuarial-ts/core",
-  "version": "0.10.0",
+  "version": "0.12.0",
   "description": "Pure, zero-dependency P&C actuarial math for TypeScript: reserving, generalized definition-driven diagnostics, trends, limits, discounting, and seeded stochastic methods with published-value validation.",
   "license": "Apache-2.0",
   "type": "module",

package/src/analysisRecipe.ts

@@ -434,7 +434,15 @@ export function applyAnalysisScenario(
   if (!isDiagnosticToken(scenario.id))
     scenarioIssues.push({ domain: "configuration", code: "invalid-string", path: "$.scenario.id", message: "Scenario id is invalid" });
   for (const [index, change] of scenario.changes.entries()) {
-    if (change.kind !== "reporting-predicate" && !definition.financialTerms.some((term) => term.id === change.termId))
+    if (change.kind === "financial-adjustment-factor") {
+      const adjustment = definition.financialAdjustments?.find((candidate) => candidate.id === change.adjustmentId);
+      if (adjustment === undefined)
+        scenarioIssues.push({ domain: "configuration", code: "unknown-reference", path: `$.scenario.changes[${index}].adjustmentId`, message: `Unknown financial adjustment ${change.adjustmentId}` });
+      else if (adjustment.kind !== "scale")
+        scenarioIssues.push({ domain: "configuration", code: "incompatible-semantics", path: `$.scenario.changes[${index}].adjustmentId`, message: `Financial adjustment ${change.adjustmentId} is not a scale adjustment and carries no factor` });
+      if (!(change.factor > 0) || !Number.isFinite(change.factor))
+        scenarioIssues.push({ domain: "configuration", code: "invalid-number", path: `$.scenario.changes[${index}].factor`, message: "Scenario adjustment factor must be positive finite" });
+    } else if (change.kind !== "reporting-predicate" && !definition.financialTerms.some((term) => term.id === change.termId))
       scenarioIssues.push({ domain: "configuration", code: "unknown-reference", path: `$.scenario.changes[${index}].termId`, message: `Unknown financial term ${change.termId}` });
     if (change.kind === "financial-term-limit" && change.limit !== null && (!(change.limit > 0) || !Number.isFinite(change.limit)))
       scenarioIssues.push({ domain: "configuration", code: "invalid-number", path: `$.scenario.changes[${index}].limit`, message: "Scenario term limit must be positive finite or null" });
@@ -454,11 +462,19 @@ export function applyAnalysisScenario(
     }
     return current;
   });
+  const adjustments = definition.financialAdjustments?.map((adjustment) => {
+    let current = adjustment;
+    for (const change of scenario.changes)
+      if (change.kind === "financial-adjustment-factor" && change.adjustmentId === adjustment.id && current.kind === "scale")
+        current = { ...current, factor: change.factor };
+    return current;
+  });
   return snapshotDiagnosticJson({
     ...definition,
     version: `${definition.version}+scenario.${scenario.id}`,
     scopes: { ...definition.scopes, reporting: { ...definition.scopes.reporting, predicate: reportingPredicate } },
     financialTerms: terms,
+    ...(adjustments === undefined ? {} : { financialAdjustments: adjustments }),
   });
 }
 
@@ -506,6 +522,7 @@ export function runAnalysisScenarios(input: {
 
 function scenarioChangeTarget(change: AnalysisScenarioChange): string {
   if (change.kind === "reporting-predicate") return "reporting-predicate";
+  if (change.kind === "financial-adjustment-factor") return `${change.kind}:${change.adjustmentId}`;
   return `${change.kind}:${change.termId}`;
 }
 

package/src/canonical.ts

@@ -42,6 +42,37 @@ interface CanonicalSink {
   endContainer(token: "]" | "}"): void;
 }
 
+/** Own keys in canonical order, sorting only when insertion order is not already sorted. */
+function sortedKeys(obj: object): string[] {
+  const keys = Object.keys(obj);
+  for (let index = 1; index < keys.length; index++)
+    if (keys[index - 1]! > keys[index]!) return keys.sort();
+  return keys;
+}
+
+// Strings up to this length are escaped in one native call inside a leaf
+// record; longer strings and keys keep the sink's bounded chunked quoting.
+const LEAF_TEXT_CODE_UNITS = 1024;
+
+/**
+ * Renders a short scalar exactly as `canonicalize` would. Returns undefined
+ * for anything else (objects, long strings, and every unsupported value), so
+ * the container path produces the same bytes or the same error for it.
+ */
+function leafScalarText(value: unknown): string | undefined {
+  if (value === null) return "null";
+  switch (typeof value) {
+    case "string":
+      return value.length <= LEAF_TEXT_CODE_UNITS ? JSON.stringify(value) : undefined;
+    case "boolean":
+      return value ? "true" : "false";
+    case "number":
+      return Number.isFinite(value) ? (Object.is(value, -0) ? "0" : String(value)) : undefined;
+    default:
+      return undefined;
+  }
+}
+
 /** One traversal owns validation and property access order for both outputs. */
 function canonicalize(value: unknown, path: string, seen: Set<object>, sink: CanonicalSink): void {
   if (value === null) {
@@ -88,16 +119,43 @@ function canonicalize(value: unknown, path: string, seen: Set<object>, sink: Can
     }
     sink.endContainer("]");
   } else if (isPlainObject(obj)) {
-    const keys = Object.keys(obj).sort();
-    sink.startContainer("{");
+    const keys = sortedKeys(obj);
+    // Leaf records (every value a short scalar) dominate diagnostic graphs.
+    // While a record still looks like one, its scalars are rendered as text
+    // without opening a container frame; the first other value switches to the
+    // container path, replaying the texts already rendered. Every property is
+    // read exactly once, in canonical order, and the bytes are identical.
+    let leafTexts: string[] | undefined = [];
     for (let i = 0; i < keys.length; i++) {
-      if (i > 0) sink.write(",");
       const key = keys[i]!;
+      const item = obj[key];
+      if (leafTexts !== undefined) {
+        const text = key.length <= LEAF_TEXT_CODE_UNITS ? leafScalarText(item) : undefined;
+        if (text !== undefined) {
+          leafTexts.push(text);
+          continue;
+        }
+        sink.startContainer("{");
+        for (let j = 0; j < leafTexts.length; j++) {
+          if (j > 0) sink.write(",");
+          sink.quote(keys[j]!);
+          sink.write(":");
+          sink.write(leafTexts[j]!);
+        }
+        leafTexts = undefined;
+      }
+      if (i > 0) sink.write(",");
       sink.quote(key);
       sink.write(":");
-      canonicalize(obj[key], `${path}.${key}`, seen, sink);
+      canonicalize(item, `${path}.${key}`, seen, sink);
+    }
+    if (leafTexts === undefined) sink.endContainer("}");
+    else {
+      let text = "{";
+      for (let j = 0; j < leafTexts.length; j++)
+        text += `${j > 0 ? "," : ""}${JSON.stringify(keys[j]!)}:${leafTexts[j]!}`;
+      sink.write(`${text}}`);
     }
-    sink.endContainer("}");
   } else {
     const name = (obj.constructor as { name?: string } | undefined)?.name ?? "unknown";
     throw new ReservingError(

package/src/customizationContracts.ts

@@ -405,7 +405,16 @@ export type AnalysisStatisticDefinition =
       readonly numeratorMeasureId: string;
       readonly denominatorMeasureId: string;
       readonly scale: number;
-      readonly denominatorRule: "positive" | "nonzero";
+      /**
+       * Ratio-of-sums denominators must be strictly positive: a negative
+       * denominator makes the ratio uninterpretable as a rate or a share, and
+       * a zero one makes it undefined. Both yield an unavailable result rather
+       * than a number. This mirrors `denominatorPolicy` on the diagnostics
+       * side, which is a singleton for the same reason. A genuinely signed
+       * baseline (an actual-versus-expected or a change ratio) is a different
+       * measure family and needs its own contract, not a relaxation of this one.
+       */
+      readonly denominatorRule: "positive";
     }
   | { readonly kind: "distinct-count"; readonly entity: "claim" | "claimant" | "occurrence" | "policy" | "coverage" }
   | { readonly kind: "weighted-mean"; readonly measureId: string; readonly weightMeasureId: string }
@@ -733,6 +742,8 @@ export interface AnalysisTriangleAdapterResult {
 export type AnalysisScenarioChange =
   | { readonly kind: "financial-term-limit"; readonly termId: string; readonly limit: number | null }
   | { readonly kind: "financial-term-attachment"; readonly termId: string; readonly amount: number }
+  /** Overrides the factor of one named `scale` adjustment; only `scale` carries a factor. */
+  | { readonly kind: "financial-adjustment-factor"; readonly adjustmentId: string; readonly factor: number }
   | { readonly kind: "reporting-predicate"; readonly predicate: AnalysisPredicate };
 
 export interface AnalysisScenario {

package/src/descriptiveStatistics.ts

@@ -146,7 +146,7 @@ export function calculateAnalysisStatistic(input: {
       denominator += denominatorValue;
       included += 1;
     }
-    const validDenominator = statistic.denominatorRule === "positive" ? denominator > 0 : denominator !== 0;
+    const validDenominator = denominator > 0;
     if (included === 0 || !validDenominator)
       return snapshotDiagnosticJson({
         measureId: measure.id,