@actuarial-ts/core 0.1.0

package/dist/mack.js

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+import { ReservingError } from "./types.js";
+import { isNum, lastObservedIndex } from "./util.js";
+/**
+ * Mack (1993) distribution-free chain ladder standard errors, alpha = 1,
+ * extended per Mack (1999) to selected development factors and a tail:
+ *
+ * - f_k    = sum(C_{i,k+1}) / sum(C_{i,k}) over rows with both cells observed
+ * - s^2_k  = 1/(n_k - 1) * sum C_{i,k} (F_{ik} - f_k)^2, always estimated
+ *   around the volume-weighted f_k (the data-driven estimator) even when
+ *   the projection uses selected factors
+ * - s^2 for the final column is extrapolated per Mack:
+ *   min(s^4_{K-2}/s^2_{K-3}, min(s^2_{K-3}, s^2_{K-2}))
+ * - se(R_i)^2 = C_ult^2 * sum_k (s^2_k / f*_k^2) (1/C_ik + 1/sum_j C_jk)
+ *   with f* the projection factors and projected C below the diagonal
+ * - a tail step (tailFactor > 1) extends the sum by one column, with s^2
+ *   extrapolated once more by the same rule and the final column's volume
+ *   as its denominator - an approximation, flagged in warnings
+ * - the total includes Mack's cross-covariance term between accident years
+ */
+/**
+ * Mack's base estimators: volume-weighted development factors f_k, their
+ * column volumes (sum of C_{i,k} over the rows used), the per-column pair
+ * counts, and the DATA-ESTIMATED sigma^2_k (null where fewer than two
+ * factors exist — extrapolation is runMack's business, not the estimator's).
+ * Shared by runMack and the residual diagnostics so the two can never drift.
+ */
+export function mackEstimators(tri) {
+    const n = tri.origins.length;
+    const K = tri.ages.length;
+    if (K < 2) {
+        throw new ReservingError("TOO_SMALL", "Mack requires at least two development ages");
+    }
+    const f = [];
+    const denomSums = [];
+    const counts = [];
+    for (let k = 0; k < K - 1; k++) {
+        let num = 0;
+        let den = 0;
+        let count = 0;
+        for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+            const c0 = tri.values[i][k] ?? null;
+            const c1 = tri.values[i][k + 1] ?? null;
+            if (isNum(c0) && isNum(c1) && c0 > 0) {
+                num += c1;
+                den += c0;
+                count++;
+            }
+        }
+        if (den <= 0) {
+            throw new ReservingError("NO_FACTOR", `Development column ${tri.ages[k]}-${tri.ages[k + 1]} has no usable factors for Mack`);
+        }
+        f.push(num / den);
+        denomSums.push(den);
+        counts.push(count);
+    }
+    const sigma2 = new Array(K - 1).fill(null);
+    for (let k = 0; k < K - 1; k++) {
+        let sum = 0;
+        let count = 0;
+        for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+            const c0 = tri.values[i][k] ?? null;
+            const c1 = tri.values[i][k + 1] ?? null;
+            if (isNum(c0) && isNum(c1) && c0 > 0) {
+                const F = c1 / c0;
+                sum += c0 * (F - f[k]) ** 2;
+                count++;
+            }
+        }
+        sigma2[k] = count > 1 ? sum / (count - 1) : null;
+    }
+    return { f, denomSums, counts, sigma2 };
+}
+/**
+ * Mack's sigma^2 extrapolation for columns the data cannot estimate (fewer
+ * than two observed factors - usually only the final column):
+ * sigma^2_k = min(sigma^4_{k-1} / sigma^2_{k-2}, sigma^2_{k-2}, sigma^2_{k-1}),
+ * Mack (1993), also eq. (4.1) of Merz-Wuthrich (2008). Shared by runMack and
+ * runMerzWuthrich so the two can never disagree on the final column.
+ *
+ * Takes the raw per-column estimates (null = not estimable) and returns the
+ * completed array; when the min-rule inputs are unavailable it falls back to
+ * the prior column's value, then 0, pushing a warning either way.
+ */
+export function extrapolateSigma2(sigma2Raw, ages, warnings) {
+    const sigma2 = sigma2Raw.map((s) => (s === null ? NaN : s));
+    for (let k = 0; k < sigma2.length; k++) {
+        if (!Number.isNaN(sigma2[k]))
+            continue;
+        const s2a = k >= 2 ? sigma2[k - 2] : NaN;
+        const s2b = k >= 1 ? sigma2[k - 1] : NaN;
+        if (isNum(s2a) && isNum(s2b) && s2a > 0) {
+            sigma2[k] = Math.min((s2b * s2b) / s2a, Math.min(s2a, s2b));
+        }
+        else if (isNum(s2b)) {
+            sigma2[k] = s2b;
+            warnings.push(`sigma^2 for the ${ages[k]}-${ages[k + 1]} column could not use Mack's extrapolation; reused the prior column's value`);
+        }
+        else {
+            sigma2[k] = 0;
+            warnings.push(`sigma^2 for the ${ages[k]}-${ages[k + 1]} column is not estimable; set to 0 (standard errors understated)`);
+        }
+    }
+    return sigma2;
+}
+export function runMack(tri, options = {}) {
+    const n = tri.origins.length;
+    const K = tri.ages.length;
+    const warnings = [];
+    const estimators = mackEstimators(tri);
+    const f = estimators.f;
+    const denomSums = estimators.denomSums;
+    // Projection factors: the caller's selections when provided (nulls and
+    // non-positive values become 1.000, mirroring the chain ladder), else the
+    // volume-weighted estimates - which reproduces Mack (1993) exactly.
+    let fEff = f;
+    if (options.selected !== undefined) {
+        if (options.selected.length !== K - 1) {
+            throw new ReservingError("SELECTION_SHAPE", `Expected ${K - 1} LDF selections (one per development interval), got ${options.selected.length}`);
+        }
+        fEff = options.selected.map((s, k) => {
+            if (s === null || s === undefined)
+                return 1;
+            if (!isNum(s) || s <= 0) {
+                warnings.push(`Selected LDF for ${tri.ages[k]}-${tri.ages[k + 1]} months is not positive; treated as 1.000`);
+                return 1;
+            }
+            return s;
+        });
+        const differs = fEff.some((v, k) => Math.abs(v - f[k]) > 1e-9);
+        if (differs) {
+            warnings.push("Standard errors pair the selected development factors with sigma^2 estimated around the volume-weighted factors (Mack 1999)");
+        }
+    }
+    const tail = options.tailFactor ?? 1;
+    if (!isNum(tail) || tail <= 0) {
+        throw new ReservingError("BAD_TAIL", "Tail factor must be a positive number");
+    }
+    // sigma^2_k estimates: data-estimated where possible; Mack's extrapolation
+    // fills columns with a single factor (usually the last).
+    const sigma2 = extrapolateSigma2(estimators.sigma2, tri.ages, warnings);
+    // Tail step variance: extrapolate sigma^2 one more column by Mack's rule
+    // and reuse the final column's volume as its denominator (approximation).
+    let sigma2Tail = 0;
+    let denomTail = 0;
+    if (tail !== 1) {
+        const s2a = K >= 3 ? sigma2[K - 3] : NaN;
+        const s2b = sigma2[K - 2];
+        if (isNum(s2a) && isNum(s2b) && s2a > 0) {
+            sigma2Tail = Math.min((s2b * s2b) / s2a, Math.min(s2a, s2b));
+        }
+        else if (isNum(s2b)) {
+            sigma2Tail = s2b;
+        }
+        denomTail = denomSums[K - 2];
+        warnings.push("The tail step's standard-error contribution extrapolates sigma^2 beyond the observed columns and reuses the final column's volume; treat it as approximate (Mack 1999)");
+    }
+    // Project the full rectangle with the projection factors.
+    const projected = tri.values.map((row) => {
+        const out = new Array(K).fill(NaN);
+        const last = lastObservedIndex(row);
+        for (let j = 0; j <= last; j++)
+            out[j] = row[j] ?? NaN;
+        for (let j = last + 1; j < K; j++)
+            out[j] = out[j - 1] * fEff[j - 1];
+        return out;
+    });
+    const rows = [];
+    const mseByRow = new Array(n).fill(0);
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        const last = lastObservedIndex(tri.values[i]);
+        if (last < 0)
+            continue;
+        const latest = tri.values[i][last];
+        const ultimate = projected[i][K - 1] * tail;
+        // mse(R_i) accumulated over the projected development range plus tail.
+        let mse = 0;
+        for (let k = last; k < K - 1; k++) {
+            const cik = projected[i][k];
+            if (!(cik > 0))
+                continue;
+            mse += ((sigma2[k] / fEff[k] ** 2) * (1 / cik + 1 / denomSums[k]));
+        }
+        if (tail !== 1 && projected[i][K - 1] > 0) {
+            mse += (sigma2Tail / tail ** 2) * (1 / projected[i][K - 1] + 1 / denomTail);
+        }
+        mse *= ultimate ** 2;
+        mseByRow[i] = mse;
+        const reserve = ultimate - latest;
+        rows.push({
+            origin: tri.origins[i],
+            latest,
+            ultimate,
+            reserve,
+            standardError: Math.sqrt(mse),
+            cv: reserve !== 0 ? Math.sqrt(mse) / reserve : null,
+        });
+    }
+    // Total mse: sum of row mse plus cross terms (Mack 1993 corollary). The
+    // tail step participates like one more development column.
+    let totalMse = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++)
+        totalMse += mseByRow[i];
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        const lastI = lastObservedIndex(tri.values[i]);
+        if (lastI < 0 || (tail === 1 && lastI >= K - 1))
+            continue;
+        let laterUltimates = 0;
+        for (let j = i + 1; j < n; j++) {
+            if (lastObservedIndex(tri.values[j]) >= 0)
+                laterUltimates += projected[j][K - 1] * tail;
+        }
+        if (laterUltimates <= 0)
+            continue;
+        let inner = 0;
+        for (let k = lastI; k < K - 1; k++) {
+            inner += (2 * sigma2[k]) / fEff[k] ** 2 / denomSums[k];
+        }
+        if (tail !== 1) {
+            inner += (2 * sigma2Tail) / tail ** 2 / denomTail;
+        }
+        totalMse += projected[i][K - 1] * tail * laterUltimates * inner;
+    }
+    const totals = rows.reduce((acc, r) => ({
+        latest: acc.latest + r.latest,
+        ultimate: acc.ultimate + r.ultimate,
+        reserve: acc.reserve + r.reserve,
+    }), { latest: 0, ultimate: 0, reserve: 0 });
+    const totalSe = Math.sqrt(totalMse);
+    return {
+        method: "mack",
+        developmentFactors: fEff,
+        sigmaSquared: sigma2,
+        tailFactor: tail,
+        sigmaSquaredTail: tail !== 1 ? sigma2Tail : undefined,
+        rows,
+        totals: {
+            ...totals,
+            standardError: totalSe,
+            cv: totals.reserve !== 0 ? totalSe / totals.reserve : null,
+        },
+        warnings,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=mack.js.map

package/dist/mack.js.map

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package/dist/merzWuthrich.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+import type { MerzWuthrichResult, Triangle } from "./types.js";
+/**
+ * Merz-Wuthrich (2008) one-year claims development result (CDR) msep.
+ *
+ * Source: Merz, M. & Wuthrich, M.V. (2008), "Modelling the Claims Development
+ * Result for Solvency Purposes", CAS E-Forum Fall 2008, 542-568. Implements
+ * Result 3.5's closed forms: eq. (3.17) per accident year and eq. (3.18) for
+ * the aggregate - the msep of the observable one-year CDR around 0, i.e. the
+ * Solvency II / SST one-year reserve-risk quantity. Everything is computable
+ * at time I from the observed triangle D_I alone: S_j^{I+1} = S_j^I +
+ * C_{I-j,j} adds only the current diagonal element, which is in D_I.
+ *
+ * Estimators are shared with runMack - volume-weighted fhat_j and Mack's
+ * sigma^2_j with the min-rule extrapolation for the final column, which is
+ * exactly the paper's eq. (4.1) - and Mack's full-runoff msep is computed via
+ * runMack so every row carries the one-year vs ultimate-view comparison.
+ *
+ * Constraints (Sec. 2 of the paper): the closed forms assume a regular
+ * run-off triangle with I = J - as many origin periods as development ages,
+ * every cell on or left of the latest diagonal observed and positive, and
+ * nothing observed beyond it. Violations throw ReservingError("SHAPE").
+ *
+ * Caveat: (3.17)/(3.18) are the paper's linear approximations (Appendix A)
+ * of the exact product-form formulas. They are the published, industry-
+ * standard form (the paper's Table 4 is produced by them), accurate when
+ * sigma^2_j / (fhat_j^2 C_{i,j}) << 1, which holds for typical triangles.
+ */
+export declare function runMerzWuthrich(tri: Triangle): MerzWuthrichResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=merzWuthrich.d.ts.map

package/dist/merzWuthrich.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/merzWuthrich.js

@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+import { ReservingError } from "./types.js";
+import { extrapolateSigma2, mackEstimators, runMack } from "./mack.js";
+import { isNum } from "./util.js";
+/**
+ * Merz-Wuthrich (2008) one-year claims development result (CDR) msep.
+ *
+ * Source: Merz, M. & Wuthrich, M.V. (2008), "Modelling the Claims Development
+ * Result for Solvency Purposes", CAS E-Forum Fall 2008, 542-568. Implements
+ * Result 3.5's closed forms: eq. (3.17) per accident year and eq. (3.18) for
+ * the aggregate - the msep of the observable one-year CDR around 0, i.e. the
+ * Solvency II / SST one-year reserve-risk quantity. Everything is computable
+ * at time I from the observed triangle D_I alone: S_j^{I+1} = S_j^I +
+ * C_{I-j,j} adds only the current diagonal element, which is in D_I.
+ *
+ * Estimators are shared with runMack - volume-weighted fhat_j and Mack's
+ * sigma^2_j with the min-rule extrapolation for the final column, which is
+ * exactly the paper's eq. (4.1) - and Mack's full-runoff msep is computed via
+ * runMack so every row carries the one-year vs ultimate-view comparison.
+ *
+ * Constraints (Sec. 2 of the paper): the closed forms assume a regular
+ * run-off triangle with I = J - as many origin periods as development ages,
+ * every cell on or left of the latest diagonal observed and positive, and
+ * nothing observed beyond it. Violations throw ReservingError("SHAPE").
+ *
+ * Caveat: (3.17)/(3.18) are the paper's linear approximations (Appendix A)
+ * of the exact product-form formulas. They are the published, industry-
+ * standard form (the paper's Table 4 is produced by them), accurate when
+ * sigma^2_j / (fhat_j^2 C_{i,j}) << 1, which holds for typical triangles.
+ */
+export function runMerzWuthrich(tri) {
+    const n = tri.origins.length;
+    const K = tri.ages.length;
+    if (n !== K) {
+        throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", `Merz-Wuthrich requires a square triangle (I = J): got ${n} origin periods by ${K} development ages`);
+    }
+    // Regularity: every cell on or left of the time-I diagonal must be observed
+    // and positive (the formulas divide by diagonal cells and the variance
+    // assumption needs C > 0); nothing may be observed beyond the diagonal.
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        const row = tri.values[i] ?? [];
+        const diag = K - 1 - i;
+        for (let j = 0; j <= diag; j++) {
+            const v = row[j] ?? null;
+            if (!isNum(v) || v <= 0) {
+                throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", `Merz-Wuthrich requires every cell on or left of the latest diagonal to be observed and positive: origin ${tri.origins[i]} at age ${tri.ages[j]} months is ${isNum(v) ? "non-positive" : "missing"}`);
+            }
+        }
+        for (let j = diag + 1; j < K; j++) {
+            if (isNum(row[j] ?? null)) {
+                throw new ReservingError("SHAPE", `Merz-Wuthrich assumes a time-I snapshot: origin ${tri.origins[i]} has an observation beyond the latest diagonal at age ${tri.ages[j]} months`);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    const warnings = [];
+    const estimators = mackEstimators(tri);
+    const f = estimators.f;
+    // S_j^I (2.9): column-j volume EXCLUDING the diagonal element C_{I-j,j}.
+    const sI = estimators.denomSums;
+    const sigma2 = extrapolateSigma2(estimators.sigma2, tri.ages, warnings);
+    const I = K - 1; // = J; row i's latest observed cell is column I - i.
+    // sjr(j) = sigmahat_j^2 / fhat_j^2, the paper's recurring ratio.
+    const sjr = sigma2.map((s2, j) => s2 / f[j] ** 2);
+    // S_j^{I+1} = S_j^I + C_{I-j,j} (2.10): INCLUDES the diagonal element.
+    const sIPlus1 = sI.map((s, j) => s + tri.values[I - j][j]);
+    // Chain ladder ultimates Chat_{i,J}^I (2.11).
+    const ultimates = tri.values.map((row, i) => {
+        let u = row[I - i];
+        for (let j = I - i; j < I; j++)
+            u *= f[j];
+        return u;
+    });
+    // Mack's ultimate-view msep on the identical estimators, for comparison.
+    const mack = runMack(tri);
+    const rows = [];
+    const msepByRow = new Array(n).fill(0);
+    // Estimation-error piece shared by (3.17) and (3.18)'s cross terms:
+    // sjr(I-i)/S_{I-i}^I + sum_{j=I-i+1}^{J-1} (C_{I-j,j}/S_j^{I+1}) sjr(j)/S_j^I
+    // (FIRST power of C_{I-j,j}/S_j^{I+1} - the Delta and Phi tails merge).
+    const estimationTerm = new Array(n).fill(0);
+    let totalReserve = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        const d = I - i;
+        if (i > 0) {
+            let laterDiagonals = 0;
+            for (let j = d + 1; j <= I - 1; j++) {
+                laterDiagonals += (tri.values[I - j][j] / sIPlus1[j]) * (sjr[j] / sI[j]);
+            }
+            estimationTerm[i] = sjr[d] / sI[d] + laterDiagonals;
+            // (3.17): process term sjr(I-i)/C_{i,I-i} plus the estimation term.
+            msepByRow[i] = ultimates[i] ** 2 * (sjr[d] / tri.values[i][d] + estimationTerm[i]);
+        }
+        // i = 0 is fully developed: its CDR is identically 0 (the paper prints
+        // this row with reserve 0 and blank volatility cells).
+        const cdrMsepRoot = Math.sqrt(msepByRow[i]);
+        const mackMsepRoot = mack.rows[i].standardError;
+        const reserve = ultimates[i] - tri.values[i][d];
+        totalReserve += reserve;
+        rows.push({
+            origin: tri.origins[i],
+            reserve,
+            cdrMsepRoot,
+            mackMsepRoot,
+            oneYearRatio: mackMsepRoot > 0 ? cdrMsepRoot / mackMsepRoot : null,
+        });
+    }
+    // (3.18): aggregate = sum of the single-year mseps plus cross terms
+    // 2 * Chat_i * Chat_k over 0 < i < k <= I, each scaled by the estimation
+    // term of the EARLIER accident year i.
+    let totalMsep = msepByRow.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
+    for (let i = 1; i < n; i++) {
+        let laterUltimates = 0;
+        for (let k = i + 1; k < n; k++)
+            laterUltimates += ultimates[k];
+        totalMsep += 2 * ultimates[i] * laterUltimates * estimationTerm[i];
+    }
+    const totalCdrMsepRoot = Math.sqrt(totalMsep);
+    const totalMackMsepRoot = mack.totals.standardError;
+    return {
+        method: "merzWuthrich",
+        developmentFactors: f,
+        sigmaSquared: sigma2,
+        rows,
+        totals: {
+            reserve: totalReserve,
+            cdrMsepRoot: totalCdrMsepRoot,
+            mackMsepRoot: totalMackMsepRoot,
+            oneYearRatio: totalMackMsepRoot > 0 ? totalCdrMsepRoot / totalMackMsepRoot : null,
+        },
+        warnings,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=merzWuthrich.js.map

package/dist/merzWuthrich.js.map

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package/dist/munichChainLadder.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,101 @@
+import type { Triangle } from "./types.js";
+/**
+ * Munich chain ladder, Quarg & Mack (2004): a paired paid/incurred projection
+ * that corrects each triangle's development factors with the momentary
+ * (paid/incurred) ratio, so the projected paid and incurred ultimates
+ * converge instead of preserving each accident year's (P/I) gap forever
+ * (the separate-chain-ladder problem, Sec 1.1.2 of the paper).
+ *
+ * Estimators (Sec 3.1, all reproduced against the paper's printed rows):
+ * - fhat^P/fhat^I: volume-weighted development factors (shared with Mack).
+ * - sigmahat: Mack variance estimators around fhat, denominator = pairs - 1.
+ * - qhat_s: incurred-weighted average (P/I) per column; its reciprocal
+ *   estimates the conditional mean of (I/P).
+ * - rhohat^P_s / rhohat^I_s: Mack-style variance estimators for the ratio
+ *   series, volume-weighted by paid resp. incurred, denominator = cells - 1.
+ * - lambda^P / lambda^I: slopes of the single regression line THROUGH THE
+ *   ORIGIN over the pooled residual plots (factor residual vs preceding
+ *   ratio residual, all development years at once). The lambdas equal the
+ *   residual correlation coefficients, so weak correlation collapses MCL
+ *   gracefully toward the separate chain ladder.
+ *
+ * Projection (Sec 3.1.2): the paid and incurred recursions run
+ * SIMULTANEOUSLY, cell by cell left to right, because each paid step needs
+ * the current projected (I/P) ratio and each incurred step the projected
+ * (P/I). Implemented in the multiplied-out form of Sec 3.2.1
+ * (P*f + lambda*(sigma/rho)*(I - P/q)), which needs no division by the
+ * projected paid/incurred value and therefore stays sensible when current
+ * paid is tiny or zero.
+ */
+export interface MunichChainLadderOptions {
+    /**
+     * Explicit sigma (standard-deviation scale, same units as the printed
+     * sigmahat rows) for the FINAL development column, whose sigma is never
+     * estimable from a single factor. Quarg-Mack manually set both to 0.100
+     * in the paper's example. When omitted, the engine falls back to Mack's
+     * sigma^2 extrapolation rule (extrapolateSigma2); a warning is pushed
+     * either way, since the paper notes a sounder extrapolation should be
+     * used in practice.
+     */
+    lastColumnSigma?: {
+        paid?: number;
+        incurred?: number;
+    };
+}
+/** The four estimated-residual triangles (Sec 3.1.2), null where not estimable. */
+export interface MunichChainLadderResiduals {
+    /** Reshat(P_{i,t}): paid development-factor residuals, [origin][step]. */
+    paidFactor: (number | null)[][];
+    /** Reshat(I_{i,t}): incurred development-factor residuals. */
+    incurredFactor: (number | null)[][];
+    /** Reshat(Q^-1_{i,s}): (I/P) ratio residuals, [origin][ageColumn]. */
+    paidRatio: (number | null)[][];
+    /** Reshat(Q_{i,s}): (P/I) ratio residuals. */
+    incurredRatio: (number | null)[][];
+}
+export interface MunichChainLadderRow {
+    origin: string;
+    paidLatest: number;
+    incurredLatest: number;
+    paidUltimate: number;
+    incurredUltimate: number;
+    /** Separate (plain volume-weighted) chain ladder ultimates for comparison. */
+    sclPaidUltimate: number;
+    sclIncurredUltimate: number;
+    /** MCL ultimate paid / ultimate incurred; null when incurred is not positive. */
+    finalRatio: number | null;
+    /** SCL ultimate paid / ultimate incurred (the gap MCL is built to close). */
+    sclFinalRatio: number | null;
+}
+export interface MunichChainLadderResult {
+    method: "munichChainLadder";
+    /** Volume-weighted fhat^P per development step. */
+    paidFactors: number[];
+    /** Volume-weighted fhat^I per development step. */
+    incurredFactors: number[];
+    /** sigmahat^P per step, after last-column fallback (see options). */
+    sigmaPaid: number[];
+    sigmaIncurred: number[];
+    /** qhat_s per age column; null where a column has no usable (P, I) pairs. */
+    qRatios: (number | null)[];
+    /** rhohat^P_s per age column; null where fewer than two pairs exist. */
+    rhoPaid: (number | null)[];
+    rhoIncurred: (number | null)[];
+    /** Through-origin regression slopes over the pooled residuals. */
+    lambdaPaid: number;
+    lambdaIncurred: number;
+    residuals: MunichChainLadderResiduals;
+    /** Full projected rectangles (observed cells passed through); null rows = skipped. */
+    projectedPaid: ((number | null)[] | null)[];
+    projectedIncurred: ((number | null)[] | null)[];
+    rows: MunichChainLadderRow[];
+    totals: {
+        paidUltimate: number;
+        incurredUltimate: number;
+        sclPaidUltimate: number;
+        sclIncurredUltimate: number;
+    };
+    warnings: string[];
+}
+export declare function runMunichChainLadder(paid: Triangle, incurred: Triangle, options?: MunichChainLadderOptions): MunichChainLadderResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=munichChainLadder.d.ts.map

package/dist/munichChainLadder.d.ts.map

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