@actuarial-ts/compliance 0.1.0

package/LICENSE

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package/NOTICE

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+actuarial-ts
+Copyright 2026 Justin Morrey
+
+This product includes software developed as part of the actuarial-ts project
+(https://github.com/yerromnitsuj/actng).

package/README.md

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+# @actuarial-ts/compliance
+
+The compliance-support layer of the actuarial-ts SDK: the part no
+calculator ships. It turns an analysis into the documentation the
+Actuarial Standards of Practice ask for.
+
+- **Estimate metadata** (ASOP 43): intended purpose and measure, gross/net
+  basis, LAE treatment, and the accounting / valuation / review dates — as
+  typed, validated fields instead of tribal knowledge.
+- **Assumption ledger** (ASOPs 41/43/56): an immutable record of every
+  selection, distinguishing machine defaults from human or agent judgment;
+  judgment entries require a rationale.
+- **Disclosure generator** (ASOP 41): renders a methods-assumptions-and-data
+  appendix from the analysis itself — written to the "another qualified
+  actuary could appraise it" bar, deterministic to the byte.
+- **Model cards** (ASOP 56): intended use, specification, key assumptions,
+  known weaknesses, and sensitivities for every method the SDK ships (a
+  cross-package sync test enforces the completeness, so the registry can
+  never silently fall behind core) — the
+  "basic understanding" content an actuary relying on vendor models must
+  hold and disclose.
+- **Reproducibility bundles** (ASOP 21 / 56): canonical serialization of
+  inputs, parameters, and results with an integrity tag, so an analysis
+  re-runs identically years later for an auditor or examiner.
+- **Actual-vs-expected roll-forward**: expected emergence from the prior
+  valuation's pattern versus actual, by origin.
+
+Everything here is pure, deterministic, and browser-safe: no clock reads,
+no randomness, no node builtins. Identical inputs produce byte-identical
+documents.
+
+## Quickstart
+
+```ts
+import { runChainLadder, runMack } from "@actuarial-ts/core";
+import {
+  createLedger,
+  recordAssumption,
+  generateDisclosure,
+} from "@actuarial-ts/compliance";
+
+let ledger = createLedger();
+ledger = recordAssumption(ledger, {
+  timestamp: "2026-01-05T10:05:00Z",
+  actor: "actuary",
+  field: "paid.tailFactor",
+  value: 1.02,
+  rationale: "Exponential-decay fit valid with R^2 0.97; judgmentally confirmed",
+  source: "fitted",
+});
+
+const cl = runChainLadder(paidTriangle, { selected, tailFactor: 1.02 });
+const mack = runMack(paidTriangle, { selected, tailFactor: 1.02 });
+
+const markdown = generateDisclosure({
+  metadata: {
+    intendedPurpose: "Estimate unpaid claims for year-end statutory reporting",
+    intendedMeasure: { kind: "central-estimate" },
+    basis: { grossNet: "gross", laeTreatment: "dcc-only" },
+    accountingDate: "2025-12-31",
+    valuationDate: "2025-12-31",
+  },
+  methods: [
+    { methodId: "chainLadder", basisLabel: "paid", parameters: { selected, tailFactor: 1.02 }, resultSummary: { ultimate: cl.totals.ultimate, unpaid: cl.totals.unpaid } },
+    { methodId: "mack", basisLabel: "paid", resultSummary: { standardError: mack.totals.standardError } },
+  ],
+  ledger,
+  sdkVersion: "0.1.0",
+  generatedAt: "2026-01-05T10:15:00Z",
+});
+```
+
+## The honest claim
+
+The ASB does not approve, certify, or endorse software, and no software can
+be "ASOP-compliant" on its own — compliance is a property of a credentialed
+actuary's work in context. This package is **designed to support the
+actuary's compliance** with ASOP Nos. 41, 43, 23, 56, and 21 by generating
+the disclosures, documentation, and audit artifacts those standards call
+for. The generated documents are draft support material for the responsible
+actuary to review, edit, and adopt.
+
+## License
+
+Apache-2.0. Copyright 2026 Justin Morrey.

package/dist/ave.d.ts

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+/**
+ * Actual-vs-expected roll-forward: the back-test that asks "did losses emerge
+ * between the prior and current valuations the way the prior analysis
+ * expected?" — the standard bridge exhibit for the ASOP 41 changes-from-prior
+ * discussion and for judging whether prior assumptions still hold (ASOP 43).
+ *
+ * Ground truth (per origin):
+ * - expectedEmergence = priorUltimate x (expectedPercentAtCurrent - expectedPercentAtPrior)
+ * - actualEmergence   = currentLatest - priorLatest
+ * - difference        = actualEmergence - expectedEmergence (positive = worse
+ *   than expected on a loss basis)
+ * - ratio             = actualEmergence / expectedEmergence, and null — never
+ *   NaN or Infinity — when expectedEmergence is 0, matching core's
+ *   null-safety philosophy (no factor, not an exception).
+ * - totals sum the rows; the total ratio follows the same null rule.
+ * - Suspicious inputs produce WARNINGS, not errors: a development pattern
+ *   that goes backwards (expectedPercentAtCurrent < expectedPercentAtPrior)
+ *   or a percent outside [0, 1.05] is reportable, but the arithmetic is still
+ *   well-defined and the actuary decides what it means. (Slightly above 1 is
+ *   legitimate: paid patterns can overshoot ultimate before salvage/subro.)
+ *
+ * Errors follow the package's ComplianceError style (see bundle.ts):
+ * `percentDevelopedFromCdfs` throws BAD_CDF on a non-positive or non-finite
+ * CDF because no percent-developed interpretation exists for it.
+ *
+ * These utilities are designed to support the actuary's compliance with
+ * ASOP Nos. 41 and 43; responsibility for compliance remains with the
+ * credentialed actuary.
+ */
+export interface AveInputRow {
+    /** Origin period label (e.g. "2021"). */
+    origin: string;
+    /** The prior analysis's selected ultimate for this origin. */
+    priorUltimate: number;
+    /** Latest observed value (paid or incurred, matching the pattern basis) at the prior valuation. */
+    priorLatest: number;
+    /** Latest observed value at the current valuation, same basis as priorLatest. */
+    currentLatest: number;
+    /** Prior analysis's expected percent developed at the prior valuation age (fraction). */
+    expectedPercentAtPrior: number;
+    /** Prior analysis's expected percent developed at the current valuation age (fraction). */
+    expectedPercentAtCurrent: number;
+}
+export interface AveResultRow {
+    origin: string;
+    expectedEmergence: number;
+    actualEmergence: number;
+    /** actualEmergence - expectedEmergence. */
+    difference: number;
+    /** actualEmergence / expectedEmergence; null when expectedEmergence is 0. */
+    ratio: number | null;
+}
+export interface AveRollForwardResult {
+    rows: AveResultRow[];
+    totals: {
+        expectedEmergence: number;
+        actualEmergence: number;
+        difference: number;
+        /** Total actual / total expected; null when total expected is 0. */
+        ratio: number | null;
+    };
+    warnings: string[];
+}
+/** Rolls the prior analysis forward and compares expected to actual emergence per origin. */
+export declare function aveRollForward(rows: AveInputRow[]): AveRollForwardResult;
+/**
+ * Percent developed per age from a CDF vector: percent[j] = 1 / cdfs[j]
+ * (cdfs[j] = cumulative factor from ages[j] to ultimate, tail included, per
+ * core's ChainLadderResult convention). Convenience for pattern-based callers
+ * building aveRollForward inputs. Throws ComplianceError("BAD_CDF") on a
+ * non-positive or non-finite CDF.
+ */
+export declare function percentDevelopedFromCdfs(cdfs: number[]): number[];
+//# sourceMappingURL=ave.d.ts.map

package/dist/ave.d.ts.map

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package/dist/ave.js

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+/**
+ * Actual-vs-expected roll-forward: the back-test that asks "did losses emerge
+ * between the prior and current valuations the way the prior analysis
+ * expected?" — the standard bridge exhibit for the ASOP 41 changes-from-prior
+ * discussion and for judging whether prior assumptions still hold (ASOP 43).
+ *
+ * Ground truth (per origin):
+ * - expectedEmergence = priorUltimate x (expectedPercentAtCurrent - expectedPercentAtPrior)
+ * - actualEmergence   = currentLatest - priorLatest
+ * - difference        = actualEmergence - expectedEmergence (positive = worse
+ *   than expected on a loss basis)
+ * - ratio             = actualEmergence / expectedEmergence, and null — never
+ *   NaN or Infinity — when expectedEmergence is 0, matching core's
+ *   null-safety philosophy (no factor, not an exception).
+ * - totals sum the rows; the total ratio follows the same null rule.
+ * - Suspicious inputs produce WARNINGS, not errors: a development pattern
+ *   that goes backwards (expectedPercentAtCurrent < expectedPercentAtPrior)
+ *   or a percent outside [0, 1.05] is reportable, but the arithmetic is still
+ *   well-defined and the actuary decides what it means. (Slightly above 1 is
+ *   legitimate: paid patterns can overshoot ultimate before salvage/subro.)
+ *
+ * Errors follow the package's ComplianceError style (see bundle.ts):
+ * `percentDevelopedFromCdfs` throws BAD_CDF on a non-positive or non-finite
+ * CDF because no percent-developed interpretation exists for it.
+ *
+ * These utilities are designed to support the actuary's compliance with
+ * ASOP Nos. 41 and 43; responsibility for compliance remains with the
+ * credentialed actuary.
+ */
+import { ComplianceError } from "./bundle.js";
+/** Percents above this are flagged (slightly above 1 is legitimate; see doc block). */
+const PERCENT_MAX = 1.05;
+/** Rolls the prior analysis forward and compares expected to actual emergence per origin. */
+export function aveRollForward(rows) {
+    const outRows = [];
+    const warnings = [];
+    let totalExpected = 0;
+    let totalActual = 0;
+    for (const row of rows) {
+        const pctPrior = row.expectedPercentAtPrior;
+        const pctCurrent = row.expectedPercentAtCurrent;
+        if (pctCurrent < pctPrior) {
+            warnings.push(`origin ${row.origin}: pattern goes backwards (expectedPercentAtCurrent ${pctCurrent} < expectedPercentAtPrior ${pctPrior})`);
+        }
+        for (const [name, pct] of [
+            ["expectedPercentAtPrior", pctPrior],
+            ["expectedPercentAtCurrent", pctCurrent],
+        ]) {
+            if (pct < 0 || pct > PERCENT_MAX) {
+                warnings.push(`origin ${row.origin}: ${name} ${pct} outside [0, ${PERCENT_MAX}]`);
+            }
+        }
+        const expectedEmergence = row.priorUltimate * (pctCurrent - pctPrior);
+        const actualEmergence = row.currentLatest - row.priorLatest;
+        const difference = actualEmergence - expectedEmergence;
+        const ratio = expectedEmergence === 0 ? null : actualEmergence / expectedEmergence;
+        outRows.push({ origin: row.origin, expectedEmergence, actualEmergence, difference, ratio });
+        totalExpected += expectedEmergence;
+        totalActual += actualEmergence;
+    }
+    return {
+        rows: outRows,
+        totals: {
+            expectedEmergence: totalExpected,
+            actualEmergence: totalActual,
+            difference: totalActual - totalExpected,
+            ratio: totalExpected === 0 ? null : totalActual / totalExpected,
+        },
+        warnings,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Percent developed per age from a CDF vector: percent[j] = 1 / cdfs[j]
+ * (cdfs[j] = cumulative factor from ages[j] to ultimate, tail included, per
+ * core's ChainLadderResult convention). Convenience for pattern-based callers
+ * building aveRollForward inputs. Throws ComplianceError("BAD_CDF") on a
+ * non-positive or non-finite CDF.
+ */
+export function percentDevelopedFromCdfs(cdfs) {
+    return cdfs.map((cdf, index) => {
+        if (!Number.isFinite(cdf) || cdf <= 0) {
+            throw new ComplianceError("BAD_CDF", `cdf at index ${index} is ${cdf}; every CDF must be a finite number > 0`);
+        }
+        return 1 / cdf;
+    });
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=ave.js.map

package/dist/ave.js.map

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package/dist/bundle.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
+/**
+ * Reproducibility bundle: canonical JSON serialization + a tiny integrity
+ * hash, so an analysis can state "these results came from exactly these
+ * inputs, parameters, and SDK versions" and a re-run can be byte-verified.
+ *
+ * Ground truth:
+ * - `canonicalJson` is the package's single equality oracle: object keys are
+ *   sorted recursively, arrays keep their order, numbers render via
+ *   `String(n)` except -0 which normalizes to "0" (so 0 and -0 never differ),
+ *   and anything JSON cannot faithfully represent (undefined, functions,
+ *   NaN/Infinity, bigint, symbol, non-plain objects such as Date/Map/Set,
+ *   circular references) THROWS with the offending path instead of being
+ *   silently dropped or coerced the way JSON.stringify would.
+ * - `fnv1a64` is an integrity aid, NOT a security control (see its doc block).
+ * - Timestamps are caller-supplied ISO strings; this module never reads a
+ *   clock, so identical inputs yield byte-identical bundles.
+ * - Browser-safe: no node builtins (TextEncoder is a web-standard global).
+ *
+ * Error style for the whole package: `ComplianceError` with a registered
+ * machine code, mirroring core's `ReservingError` idiom. It lives here (not
+ * in its own module) because bundle.ts is the package's dependency-root
+ * module — ledger.ts already imports `canonicalJson` from it. Core's
+ * `RESERVING_ERROR_CODES` registry is a closed contract enforced against
+ * core's own source, and compliance failures (missing rationale, unsupported
+ * bundle values) are not reserving-input errors, so this package does not
+ * reuse `ReservingError`.
+ *
+ * These utilities are designed to support the actuary's compliance with
+ * ASOP No. 41 (documentation and reproducibility of the analysis);
+ * responsibility for compliance remains with the credentialed actuary.
+ */
+/**
+ * Every machine-readable code a ComplianceError can carry, across all modules
+ * of this package. Add the code here when introducing a new throw.
+ */
+export declare const COMPLIANCE_ERROR_CODES: readonly ["BAD_BUNDLE", "BAD_CDF", "MISSING_RATIONALE", "UNSUPPORTED_VALUE"];
+export type ComplianceErrorCode = (typeof COMPLIANCE_ERROR_CODES)[number];
+/** Thrown for invalid compliance input (unrepresentable bundle payloads, judgment without rationale, non-positive CDFs). */
+export declare class ComplianceError extends Error {
+    readonly code: ComplianceErrorCode;
+    constructor(code: ComplianceErrorCode, message: string);
+}
+/**
+ * Deterministic JSON serialization: sorted object keys (recursively), arrays
+ * in order, no whitespace, -0 normalized to "0". Two structurally equal
+ * values always produce the same string regardless of key insertion order.
+ * Throws ComplianceError("UNSUPPORTED_VALUE") — with the offending path, e.g.
+ * "$.rows[2].ultimate" — for any value JSON cannot faithfully represent.
+ */
+export declare function canonicalJson(value: unknown): string;
+/**
+ * FNV-1a 64-bit hash over the UTF-8 bytes of `text`, returned as a 16-hex-char
+ * string.
+ *
+ * This is an INTEGRITY AID for detecting accidental divergence between a
+ * bundle and a re-run. It is NOT a security control: FNV-1a is not collision
+ * resistant and offers no protection against deliberate tampering. Anyone
+ * needing tamper evidence must sign or cryptographically hash the payload
+ * (which is exactly why the full canonical payload — not just the hash — is
+ * stored on the bundle).
+ */
+export declare function fnv1a64(text: string): string;
+export interface CreateBundleInput {
+    /** The data the analysis consumed (triangles, claims, exposures — anything canonicalizable). */
+    inputs: unknown;
+    /** The parameters/selections the analysis used (LDF selections, a-prioris, trends…). */
+    parameters: unknown;
+    /** The results the analysis produced; this is the segment verifyBundle re-checks. */
+    results: unknown;
+    /** Package versions the run used, e.g. { "@actuarial-ts/core": "0.1.0" }. */
+    sdkVersions: Record<string, string>;
+    /** Explicit seeds for any stochastic method (purity: no ambient randomness). */
+    seeds?: unknown;
+    /** Caller-supplied ISO timestamp (purity: no clock reads). */
+    createdAt: string;
+}
+export interface ReproducibilityBundle {
+    /** Canonical JSON of the full bundle body; the reproducibility record itself. */
+    payload: string;
+    /** fnv1a64(payload) — integrity aid, not a security control. */
+    hash: string;
+}
+/**
+ * Packages an analysis run into a reproducibility bundle. The payload is
+ * canonical, so two runs with structurally equal inputs produce byte-identical
+ * payloads (and therefore identical hashes) regardless of key insertion order.
+ * `seeds` is included only when provided (undefined would be unrepresentable).
+ */
+export declare function createBundle(input: CreateBundleInput): ReproducibilityBundle;
+export interface VerifyBundleResult {
+    reproduced: boolean;
+    /**
+     * First differing path (deterministic depth-first walk, object keys in
+     * sorted order), e.g. "$.rows[1].ultimate". Present only when not
+     * reproduced. A missing/extra object key reports the key's path; an array
+     * length mismatch reports the first index past the shared prefix; a type
+     * mismatch reports the node itself.
+     */
+    mismatchPath?: string;
+}
+/**
+ * Verifies a re-run against a bundle: canonicalizes `rerunResults` and
+ * byte-compares it with the bundle's stored `results` segment. On mismatch,
+ * reports the FIRST differing path (see VerifyBundleResult.mismatchPath).
+ *
+ * Throws ComplianceError("BAD_BUNDLE") when the payload is not a valid bundle
+ * body, and propagates ComplianceError("UNSUPPORTED_VALUE") when
+ * `rerunResults` itself is not canonicalizable — a result that cannot be
+ * serialized cannot be verified.
+ */
+export declare function verifyBundle(bundle: ReproducibilityBundle, rerunResults: unknown): VerifyBundleResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=bundle.d.ts.map

package/dist/bundle.d.ts.map

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