@333eco/corpus 2.5.13 → 2.5.14

package/dist/corpus.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "package_version": "2.5.13",
+  "package_version": "2.5.14",
   "generated_from": [
     "H3/publications",
     "TH/publications",
@@ -3159,13 +3159,13 @@
         "url": "https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/",
         "attribution_required": false
       },
-      "text": "## What this is\n\nSeventy pre-registered predictions arising from the research program stated in [`which-way-value-moves`](which-way-value-moves.md). One further prediction is withheld from publication (operational channel economics); its existence is recorded here so the count is honest, bringing the true total to **seventy-one**.\n\nThis is a living document and the count rises. It opened at sixty-seven on 2026-08-27; see **Revisions** at the foot for what has been added since, and read the count in the Summary table rather than any sentence that repeats it elsewhere.\n\n**Status vocabulary.** *Unrun* — registered, no observation attempted. *Running* — instrument live, data accumulating, not yet read. *Resolved* — read against its falsifier. *Contradicted* — the data went against it. *Retired* — superseded by a ruling that made it moot; kept, never deleted.\n\n**Provenance.** *Published* — the prediction already appears in a corpus paper carrying that paper's OpenTimestamps and RFC 3161 proofs. *First public here* — the prediction existed only in internal records until this document; its first external timestamp is this file's.\n\n**Reading rule.** Predictions marked *running* must not be read early, and participants must not be prompted toward the predicted behavior. A prompt voids the test.\n\n---\n\n## Summary\n\n| | Count |\n|---|---|\n| Total registered | **101** |\n| Published here | 100 |\n| Withheld (operational) | 1 |\n| Already carried by a published paper | 58 |\n| Memory-only at first publication (2026-08-27) | 22 (21 published here + 1 withheld) |\n| Receiving first public timestamp here | 42 |\n| **Run** | **2** (both desk censuses) |\n| **Field tests run** | **0** — six pilot-scale predictions are *Running* with a baseline read; none has resolved |\n| Running (instrument live; unread, restricted or baseline only) | 9 |\n| Contradicted | 1 |\n| Retired | 2 |\n\n---\n\n## Core-level\n\n*If one of these fails, the program ends rather than adjusts.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Falsifier | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **P-GO1** | A system forbidding backward return produces more onward giving per unit received than an otherwise-identical permissive system | Equal or greater onward giving under the permissive condition → the constraint is aesthetic, not mechanical | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-K1** | As external subsidy for a kind act approaches zero, the rate of the act does not approach zero | Kindness rate tracks subsidy proportionally → the behavior was priced throughout | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-L2** | Witnessed presence generates more downstream giving than unwitnessed presence of equal duration | Equal downstream gratitude when unwitnessed → the chronicle is decorative and the institution's core claim is wrong | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption` §10) |\n| **P-R2** | Product-dependence begins to fall after the inflection | Dependence never falls → the raft is a boat | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-B3** | The proportion of creators electing to dedicate their share does not decline over time | Dedication collapses once money is visible → the offering frame is eroding | Unrun | Published (`dedicatory-generation`) |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter I — Capacity\n*Does receiving create giving? If not, forward-only motion is depletion, not circulation.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| P-IA1 | The receiver is legible as benefactor, not need — the sitter supplies a merit-field rather than displaying a lack | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-IA2 | Second inverted-alms prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-IA3 | Third inverted-alms prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-G1 | Once the app manufactures obligation, a return visit no longer distinguishes gratitude practice from guilt — publish either way | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-G2 | Second B-Grace prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-G3 | The meal-anchor outperforms gamification; gamifying at launch makes this untestable | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-W1 | Users with higher thing-capture frequency show higher rates of the primed downstream behavior — registered pre-build | Unrun | Published (`appreciation-as-world-building`) |\n| P-E1 | First graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-E2 | Second graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-E3 | Third graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-M2 | Matched-stakes prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-wager-that-isnt`) |\n| P-M3 | Patron-pot prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-wager-that-isnt`) |\n| — | **Kids-as-triggers** — children are the primary triggers of household self-thanking | **Contradicted** (parents self-thanked more; n=1, confounded, not hardened) | Published (`kids-as-triggers-self-thanking`) |\n| **P-BG1** | A shorter re-address window on a relayed gift **increases issuances and decreases COMPLETED placements**. *Null: completions hold or rise as the window shortens — the tighter clock is free.* ⚠️ Unanswerable unless `issued · passed · lapsed · re-issued` are logged from the first instrument | Unrun (unscorable as specified at n=1 — one ruled window, no variance; see P-BG1a) | First public here |\n| **P-BG2** | Sustained pass-on is **higher for an ANONYMOUS relayed gift than a VISIBLE one**, over a window long enough for the effect to appear. *Null: rates match or visible exceeds anonymous — the anonymity is doctrinal only, and the visible relay should be deprecated for minors.* Rests on the developmental finding that adult-directed giving underperforms child-led | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-BG3** | Within a bounded family, **VISIBLE gifts produce more give-BACK to the giver within 30 days; ANONYMOUS gifts produce more give-FORWARD to third parties.** *Null: rates match, or anonymous produces more give-back — the obligation mechanism is not operating.* ⛔ **Analyse PEER and ADULT-TO-CHILD strata separately** — the effect is expected between peers and weak or absent in adult-to-child care, and pooling would produce a false negative. ⚠️ Tests the **mechanism**, not the atmosphere claim it was offered to support | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-BG1a** | **Corrects P-BG1, which cannot be scored as specified** — P-BG1 compares window lengths, and one re-address window (one month) is ruled for every relayed gift. Under that one window: among relayed gifts that reach a recipient, **at least 80% are passed within 7 days of issuance**, and the pass-time distribution shows **no rise in the window's final third** (days 21–30 carry no more placements than days 11–20). Equivalently, by **truncation counterfactual**, a 7-day window would have censored **fewer than 20%** of the placements observed. *Falsifier: placements cluster in the final third, or a 7-day truncation censors 20% or more → the clock is doing work, and P-BG1's \"a shorter window loses placements\" half is live at pilot scale.* Scored once **20 or more completed placements** exist. Instrument: issuance-to-pass time, written per instrument by the relayed gift's append-only event log from the first gift. ⚠️ A truncation counterfactual **bounds; it does not measure** — it assumes no behavioural response to a shorter window, so a pass licenses *the window is not obviously load-bearing*, never *shortening it is free*. P-BG1's issuance half stays unscorable | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-PL1** | **Durability** — the founding family's 28-day capture rate returns to the June 2026 baseline of **4.5 moments/week** at some monthly read before 2027-01-01. *Falsifier: no read reaches it → the June inflection was novelty, not a level.* Window and baseline are the ones ratified for P-C0a. **Read 1 of 3 (2026-09-05): 2.25/wk** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL4** | **Pass-forward** — more than **half** of re-tip value received (each document's own recorded USD cents) is re-given by its recipient within 30 days: Σ min(received, given) / Σ received over a 90-day receipt window that closes 30 days before the read. *Falsifier: half or less → received value is income, not a licence to give; the re-patronage conduit is anecdote.* The give-forward atom made numeric. **Read 1 of 3: 43%** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL5** | **Inelasticity — the pilot-scale arm of P-K1.** Giving persists where the AI reward is zero: the share of givers with zero AI reward in a month does not fall as subsidy is withdrawn. ⚠️ **Not scorable** until the taper (scheduled Q2 2027, not to be pulled forward) and the F3QR confound registered 2026-09-04 against P-K1 are resolved; reported each read (2026-09: 86% of givers received no AI reward that month) | Unrun (instrument gated) | First public here |\n| **P-PL6** | The top three recipients of re-tip value in the founding family hold **under half** of value received in any 28-day window with five or more recipients. ⛔ **Retired in the revision that registered it: it fails by arithmetic** — with five recipients an even spread already puts the top three at 60%, so it could not pass until seven had received. Superseded by P-PL6a; kept, not deleted | **Retired** | First public here |\n| **P-PL6a** | **Corrects P-PL6.** *Accumulates to no one* — in the founding family, the top three recipients of re-tip value in a 28-day window hold **less than 1.5× their share under a perfectly even spread** (share ÷ min(1, 3/n)), once eight or more people have received. *Falsifier: 1.5× or more → value pools around a few; the jubilee and the Re-Tip Jar are not doing their structural work.* The same property freed of n. **Read 1 of 3: 1.85× (8 recipients)** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL7** | **Anonymity** — anonymous givers reach more distinct recipients than visible givers (the demand-side thesis: the capacity to give to loved ones, anonymously; the pilot-scale sibling of P-BG2). ⚠️ **No variance:** 827 of 830 re-tips carry the anonymous flag, so the field records a default, not a choice. Unscorable until the product offers a real choice | Unrun (no variance) | First public here |\n| **P-PL8** | **Kids as triggers, de-confounded** — enters as a **new prediction citing the Contradicted finding above**, under the revision rule: within the founding family, the younger generation captures more self-thanks per active member than the older **once device access is controlled for**. The first result was contradicted at n=1 and ruled not to be hardened; this names the confound and the instrument (the device join from the error stream, plus the interview leg) | Unrun (instrument not built) | First public here |\n| **P-PL9** | **Diaspora corridor, dignity direction** — low-income→high-income flows (KHR sender to USD recipient, currency as an income proxy) are at least **10%** of money-carrying re-tips in the trailing 90 days, once twenty or more flows exist. *Falsifier: under 10% → patronage is a corridor, not a mesh; the low-income members are recipients only.* June 2026 baseline 9.6%. **Read 1 of 3: 6.0% of 712** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL12** | **Cross-income gravitation, among strangers** — a USD-currency viewer re-thanks a KHR-currency creator's B-Short at **at least 2×** the per-view rate at which they re-thank a USD-currency creator's B-Short, counting only viewer–creator pairs in **different families**, over a trailing 90-day window, once each arm has 500 or more qualifying views (watch-depth rows, `schemaVersion` 2 only) and twenty or more re-thanks exist in total. *Falsifier: under 2× → the high→low flow the pilot shows is family obligation, not a preference among strangers.* Per view, not share of flows, so that what the feed happens to show cannot pass it. Currency is an income proxy. ⛔ **Void if any surface orders, filters or labels B-Shorts by country or income** — a prompt voids the test. Direction, measure and threshold are the founder's; the sample floors are substrate-set | Unrun (awaits cross-family B-Short visibility and its per-view metric) | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter II — Substrate\n*Does an hour behave like a dollar? If not, the invariance claim is false.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Falsifier / note | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **P-C0a** | Completed pledges produce captured moments at a rate **no higher** than the family's baseline capture rate | If so, the handoff is decorative and Chronicle v1 should not be built around it. Read on the 28-day window against 4.5/wk | **Running, unread** | First public here |\n| **P-C0b** | Shorts linked to a completed time-sacrifice do **not** out-perform ordinary moments on watch-through and re-tip rate | ⚠️ **Instrument defect, disclosed:** completion rate is biased against the hypothesis — longer recordings score lower by construction, so P-C0b would read *confirmed* mechanically. Restricted to views/wk and re-tip rate until repaired. ✅ *Repaired 2026-09-05: views rows written from that date carry real watch depth (`schemaVersion` 2); earlier rows are never pooled with them, so the restriction lifts only for post-repair rows* | **Running, restricted** | First public here |\n| **P-C0c** | Redeemers who capture cannot articulate the re-tip motive when asked afterward | Tests whether the stated mechanism arises unprompted, which neither original falsifier covered | **Running, unread** | First public here |\n| P-C1 | Chronicle handoff prediction as registered | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-C2 | De-facto-rate tripwire, publish either way | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-C3 | Standing de-facto-rate tripwire, publish either way | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-L1 | Hours co-spent predict relationship warmth better than money sent, messages exchanged, or stated affection | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-L3 | Two arms — silent after pledge vs one offer to reach out — measuring redemption rate and recipient-reported warmth | The motivate/nag boundary made falsifiable | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-M1 | In-person key verification failed for thirty years on the invitation, not the cryptography; a redeemed hour is the first pretext that was never about keys | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption` §4.6) |\n| P-SK1 | Superseded by the not-a-calendar ruling | Kept, not deleted | **Retired** | First public here |\n| **P-PL10** | **Presence, not content** — when Chronicle ships, captures and views move **together** (a presence effect), not apart (a content effect) | The pilot-scale reading of the C0 finding that captures and views collapsed in parallel. Instrument: `presenceDyads`, pairs active in both directions inside 28 days (founding 0, test 0 on 2026-09-05). ⛔ No Chronicle data exists; the C0 evaluation is written from the pre-registration when data first arrives, never before, and no prompt may move it | Unrun (awaits Chronicle) | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter III — Scale\n*Does it survive past the family? The chapter carrying the most weight and the least evidence.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| P-S1 | Strangers become named — name-recall instrument | Unrun | Published (`the-sport-that-says-your-name`) |\n| P-S2 | **The bet** — a friendlier atmosphere follows. *If P-S2 returns null, the slogan is a lie that already shipped* | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S3 | As registered in the paper | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S4 | A circle reaching Hard shows ≥90% correct name-and-pronunciation recall at 1 week | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S5 | **The recess test, publish either way** — within 2 weeks of teacher-led sessions, ≥1 unprompted student-organized circle at recess, and ≥1 mixing children from another classroom | Unrun — gated on Aug 2027 | Published |\n| P-S6 | The caller mechanic requires ≥3 receivers; below that selection is impossible or strictly predictable | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S7 | The founder's classroom acquisition prediction | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S8 | The maintenance/durability prediction — structurally distinct from P-S7's acquisition claim | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S9 | In a circle where every name is known, the favorite-nickname format produces ≥1 unprompted follow-up outside the circle | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S10a | **The guard (non-inferiority):** circles running roll calls meet at least as often as comparable circles that do not. *Must pass* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S10b | A coupled roll call can never cause the first re-meeting after a lapse — which is what the bet is about | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S11a | The handoff — does an IRL circle open a roll call unprompted? *Without it the real/virtual pairing is theoretical* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S11b | The payload — needs a survey or observation instrument, not analytics | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S12 | **The walk-up.** An adult not in a live circle approaches and is admitted; play absorbs them without friction. *Zero code; decides the entire found-circle branch* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S13 | Does the person-pin add anything the return does not? | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-MA1** | ⛔ **The doctrinal one — an anchor must not collapse the distribution.** Among thanks given where Miss Aquarius's suggestion was shown, **fewer than half** land exactly on the suggested amount. *Falsifier:* ≥50% land exactly on it → the anchor is operating as a **price**, and *\"nothing binds\"* is behaviourally false whatever the schema says | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-MA2** | **Deviation is two-sided.** Of thanks that deviate from the suggestion, **≥⅓ go UP**. *Falsifier:* deviation is overwhelmingly downward → the suggestion is a ceiling people negotiate down from, which is a price by another name | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-MA3** | **A shown suggestion does not reduce the rate of giving at all.** The share of asks producing any thank is no lower with a suggestion than without. ⚠️ **Gated on an arm the founder must authorise** — a with/without split by **shop or by day**, ⛔ never by person (#63 makes a viewer-keyed arm inexpressible) | Unrun — gated on an authorised arm | First public here |\n| **P-MA4** | ⭐ **A property test, not a behavioural one: recomputability holds.** For every completed thank, the suggestion that was shown can be recomputed from the order and the menu alone. *Falsifier:* any case where it cannot → the function has acquired hidden state or a viewer input, and #63's checkability is gone | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S14 | **The manufactured gathering.** The founder declares a return at a place he frequents; ≥1 person not already planning to be there comes and plays. *Needs no app — a text message runs it* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-CS1 | Warm-up extension — median sey minutes rise across a season; stronger instrument, players ask to continue past the coach's stop | Unrun | Published (`circulation-sports`) |\n| P-CS2 | Scoring displacement (a) — in circles with ≥3 sessions, unscored sessions outnumber count-down sessions | Unrun | Published |\n| P-CS2a | **The uncomfortable one** — once Team mode unlocks, circles may overwhelmingly prefer it, because competition is fun | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-CS3 | Participation, framed as a property of the format never of women — the circulatory format sustains mixed-gender play longer | Unrun | Published |\n| P-CS4 | Three generations, re-specified against the pickleball counterexample that already exists | Unrun | Published |\n| **P-CS5** | **Warm-up census** — score mainstream warm-ups against the three circulation properties | **RUN 2026-08-07 → PARTIAL NULL.** Read the full result before any uniqueness claim | Published |\n| P-CS6 | Across a wider census including field data, no reach-guaranteeing format will be found whose receiver order is unpredictable across unbounded repeated play | Unrun | Published |\n| P-SY1 | If designed excellently, asking for a name self-authored is accepted rather than refused — founder pre-registration, observable at n=1, costs nothing | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-SY2 | **The payload** — names captured by self-recording are pronounced correctly at the next meeting more often than names typed or recorded by the collector | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-SY3 | When offered, does a new acquaintance provide a photo, or skip? | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-Q1 | B-Quest pilot prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`need-compiled-questlines`) |\n| P-Q2 | Second B-Quest prediction as registered | Unrun | Published |\n| P-Q3 | Third B-Quest prediction as registered | Unrun | Published |\n| P-BB1 | Food-share wager, publish either way | Unrun | Published (`steward-routed-alms`) |\n| P-BB2 | Revival prediction | Unrun | Published |\n| P-BB3 | Decoupling tripwire | Unrun | Published |\n| P-R1 | The catalyst bet | Unrun | First public here |\n| *(unnumbered)* | Second desk census — naming/sport novelty. Not a registered prediction; recorded because it was run and returned null | **RUN → NULL.** Read before any novelty claim | Internal |\n| P-D1 | Under rotational discovery, a non-trivial share of discovery events resolve to recipients who have **never previously received a re-tip** | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.1) |\n| P-D2 | Among re-tips with an identifiable commercial recipient, the share accruing to **single-location operators** materially exceeds those operators' share of local digital advertising spend in the same market — and the gap widens as AI-generated advertising creative rises | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.2) |\n| P-D3 | If the place-commons volume experiment is enabled, cross-place discovery volume **will not correlate** with neighbourhood median income. *Falsifier and tripwire in one: correlation disables the mechanism regardless of what it is doing for circulation* | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.3) |\n| P-D4 | Adding any rendered per-recipient quantity to the candidate surface — the operator's aura colour included — produces measurable **order effects** in giver choice | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.4) |\n| P-R1a | **Corrects P-R1, which cannot test what it was taken to test.** Holding received-kindness volume constant, contemplative practice raises unprompted noticing/thanking; and the practice effect is compared *against* the received-kindness effect rather than measured alone. **Two factors, read as competing main effects** | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-PL2** | **Test-cohort retention** — of outsiders (the test bank) with ≥90 days of tenure, at least **40%** are active in two or more distinct ISO weeks; scored once ten outsiders have 90 days of tenure. *Falsifier: under 40% → strangers try it and leave; the family-obligation confound was doing the work.* The second pilot report's first decisive metric. **Read 1 of 3: 2 of 4 eligible (50%), sample under the minimum** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL3** | **Graduation** — an outsider-founded bank stays **open for 60 days with three or more members active** in the trailing 28 days, by 2027-08-01 (this chapter's gate). *Falsifier: none by the gate → the product spreads as a funnel into the test bank, never as a branching network.* The second pilot report's second decisive metric. **Read 1 of 3: 0 of 11 candidates, all closed** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL11** | **Replication** — the first graduated bank's first 90 days show ≥3 members active in ≥2 ISO weeks each, pass-forward ≥ 0.5 and reach ≥ 0.6: the founding family's pattern without the founder. The only cure for n=1. Read by re-segmenting the monthly report on that bank once P-PL3 resolves | Unrun (gated on P-PL3) | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter IV — Span\n*Does it survive the giver?*\n\n**This chapter has no predictions.**\n\nThat is reported, not hidden. Its feedback loop exceeds the founder's lifetime, and no instrument has been specified. The boundary is ruled — merit is not conveyed between destinations; *you cannot give to the dead, so you give to the living in their name* — but a ruling is not a test. The chapter is inherited rather than completed.\n\nRegistering the first span-chapter prediction is the largest open item in this program.\n\n---\n\n## Instrumented but outside the core\n\n*These papers name predictions, but the predictions test something other than the direction core. Listed for completeness; they are not evidence for or against the program.*\n\n| ID | Paper | Subject |\n|---|---|---|\n| P-A1, P-A2 | `abhidhamma-executable-process-specification` | Resting-state diagnosticity |\n| P-P1, P-P1a | `patthana-typed-causation-vocabulary` | Typed causation vocabulary (P-P1a corrects P-P1 — see the 2026-09-05 entry) |\n| P-PCR1, P-PCR2, P-PCR3, P-PCR4, P-PCR5, P-PCR3a, P-PCR4a, P-PCR5a | `provenance-carrying-retrieval` | Provenance-carrying retrieval (P-PCR3a/4a/5a correct P-PCR3/4/5 — see the 2026-09-05 entry) |\n| P-B1, P-B2 | `dedicatory-generation` | Fidelity of restoration; refusal-channel yield |\n\n---\n\n## Withheld\n\n| ID | Reason |\n|---|---|\n| P-GTM1 | Operational channel economics (outreach reply-rate base rates). Withheld under the publication posture; recorded here so the total is honest. |\n\n---\n\n## Verification\n\nEach published paper carries its own proof files. To check that a prediction has not been altered since registration, verify the stating paper against its stored proof rather than trusting this register — this file is a convenience index, and the proofs are the evidence.\n\nNo file in this corpus records its own hash. The proofs are external artifacts; the verification procedure is published with them.\n\n---\n\n## Revision rule\n\nPredictions are added, never removed. A resolved prediction keeps its original wording beside its outcome. A correction is a **new entry citing the one it corrects** — registered wording is never edited in place, because an edit would break the very property this register exists to provide.\n\n---\n\n## Revisions\n\n**2026-09-26 — one added (P-PL12). Total now 101.**\n\n- **P-PL12** — Chapter I, beside P-PL9. The founder's prediction, in his words: *\"Perhaps higher-income users will naturally\n  gravitate towards re-thanking lower-income users.\"* The pilot already shows high→low dominating, but inside one family, where\n  the flow is relational; the open question is whether the pull survives among strangers. Two choices made before any data, and\n  recorded because each could have been made the other way: the measure is a **per-view rate**, not a share of flows, because a\n  feed that happened to carry mostly Cambodian creators would pass a share test with no preference at all; and the test counts\n  **only pairs in different families**, so that the family's own flows cannot score it. The 2× threshold is the founder's.\n\n  ⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* No surface yet shows one family's B-Shorts to another, and the per-view\n  cross-family metric is not built; the entry is Unrun until both exist, and is never scored before. A pass would not be a\n  good in itself: if cross-income thanks follow displayed hardship, creators learn to display it, so a pass is read beside what\n  the thanked shorts show.\n\n**The Summary moves:** *published here* 99 → 100, *receiving first public timestamp here* 41 → 42, total 100 → 101; the\nreconciliation holds — 58 + 42 = 100 published here, plus the one withheld, is 101.\n\n**2026-09-23 — one added (P-BG1a), and P-BG1's status annotated. Total now 100.**\n\n- **P-BG1a** — Chapter I, a **correction entered as a new prediction under the revision rule, not as\n  an edit to P-BG1**, whose registered wording stands unchanged.\n\n  *Why the correction was needed:* P-BG1 predicts what happens *as the re-address window shortens*,\n  which needs at least two windows. The relayed gift has one ruled window — one month, for every\n  instrument — and a constant has no variance: the defect that left P-PL7 unscorable at 827 of 830.\n  P-BG1's Status now reads *unscorable as specified at n=1*. That is a status field; on the precedent\n  of the 2026-09-02 entry, the revision rule protects registered wording, and no word of P-BG1 changed.\n  P-BG1 becomes scorable as written only if a later season runs a second window deliberately, which\n  is the founder's decision and is not foreclosed. Its issuance half (*increases issuances*) has no\n  single-window analogue and stays unscorable.\n\n  *The mechanism, stated before the data:* the deadline is never shown to anyone holding the gift, so\n  a deadline effect has no channel except a giver's own memory of the rule. The prior is that the\n  clock is inert. Clustering near its end would mean the rule travelled by word of mouth, so the\n  test is informative either way.\n\n  ⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* The event log it reads was built before the first gift,\n  so nothing has to be back-filled, and no gift recorded by it has been read. n = 1 household,\n  unblinded, and the founder is both payer and observer — the limits of every pilot-scale entry here.\n\n**The Summary moves:** *published here* 98 → 99, *receiving first public timestamp here* 40 → 41,\ntotal 99 → 100; the reconciliation holds — 58 + 41 = 99 published here, plus the one withheld, is 100.\n\n**2026-09-20 — four added, registered BEFORE the instrument they will be read on exists. Total now 99.**\n\n**P-MA1 · P-MA2 · P-MA3 · P-MA4** — Miss Aquarius's suggested thanks on a B-Tag item, which went live\non `homecoffee.heartbank.ceo` the same day. They are entered **the day the surface shipped and before\nany customer has seen it**, because the founder's stated purpose was *\"so we can study the user's\nengagement\"* and a study begun after the data exists is unscorable however carefully it is later\nwritten up.\n\n⚠️⚠️ **THE HONEST PROBLEM WITH THE INSTRUMENT, stated because it decides what these can ever show.**\nThe shops platform **stores no figure for a thank anywhere** — not on the order, not beside it, not in\na collection of its own — which is the doctrine holding rather than a gap. So there is **no\nshop-side instrument at all**, and the only record of a completed thank is the **Treasury ledger**,\nwhich is exactly where the doctrine says thanks live.\n\n⭐⭐ **Determinism is what makes the comparison possible without a second record.** The suggestion\ncomes from a pure, published function (`@333eco/primitives/b-tag-anchor`, CC0) whose inputs are the\ngoods, so for any completed thank the suggestion that was shown can be **recomputed** from the order\nand the menu. ⛔ Nothing about the suggestion is stored to enable the study — which is also what\n**P-MA4** tests, as a property rather than a behaviour.\n\n⛔ **P-MA3 is registered but not runnable**, and is marked so rather than quietly dropped: it needs a\nwith/without arm, and **#63 makes a viewer-keyed arm inexpressible** — any arm must split by shop or\nby day. Whether to run one at all is the founder's, and withholding a suggestion from real customers\nto measure them is a decision this register does not presume.\n\n⚠️ **Sample reality, recorded so no one later reads a trend into it:** one shop, one owner, zero\ncustomers on the day of registration. These are not resolvable for a long time, and the coefficients\ninside the function are a substrate-written **starting rule set, not a finding** — ⛔ a change to them\nis a change to a live experiment and must be entered here as a new prediction, never as an edit.\n\n**The Summary moves:** *published here* 94 → 98, *receiving first public timestamp here* 36 → 40,\ntotal 95 → 99; the reconciliation holds — 58 + 40 = 98 published here, plus the one withheld, is 99.\n\n**2026-09-05 (third entry that day) — eight entries added: five that a published paper had carried unregistered since 2026-09-01, and three corrections. Total now 95.**\n\n⚠️ **`provenance-carrying-retrieval` §10 registered P-PCR1 … P-PCR5 on 2026-09-01 and this register did not carry them** — the drift the 2026-08-28 entry above says this document exists to prevent, found by a cold-reader pass four days later rather than by any instrument. They are entered in *Instrumented but outside the core*, the paper's subject being retrieval integrity rather than value movement, with the paper's own wording standing as registered. *Same day, later:* the row's identifier cell first wrote the five as a range with a semicolon, and the corpus index's arithmetic check counted the eight identifiers as three — the cell now enumerates every identifier, which is the only form the check reads, and the Summary's figures were re-derived from the tables.\n\n- **P-PCR3a · P-PCR4a · P-PCR5a** — corrections entered as new predictions under the revision rule, not as edits to P-PCR3/4/5, whose wording stands. *Why:* two cold reviewers of a different model family found the originals named no observation window, no definition of *real defect*, and no method for *modal error*, so each could be reinterpreted after the fact. The corrections add a 24-month window from 2026-09-01, classification *at the time of logging* (stale = the named source resolves newer; substituted = it resolves different at the same version), a fixed sample of the first ten inspectable implementations, and the logged detector as the observable. Provenance: *Published* (the paper's §10, revision of 2026-09-05). Status: *Unrun*.\n\n⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* No envelope mismatch has been logged, no third-party implementation inspected, and no transparency log run. **The Summary moves: *already carried by a published paper* 50 → 58, *published here* 86 → 94, total 87 → 95; the reconciliation holds — 58 + 36 = 94 published here, plus the one withheld, is 95.**\n\n**2026-09-05 (second entry that day) — one correction entered as a new prediction. Total now 87.**\n\n- **P-P1a** — `patthana-typed-causation-vocabulary` §6, a **correction entered as a new prediction under the revision rule, not as an edit to P-P1**, whose registered wording stands unchanged.\n\n  *Why the correction was needed:* P-P1 registered a four-way durability ordering — *hetu/nissaya* ≥ *kamma/āsevana* > *upanissaya* > *atthi/ārammaṇa* — as its falsifiable commitment. Two cold reviewers of a different model family, reading blind, found the same defect: the ordering was an **input** to the technique-to-type assignments in that paper's §5, so an experiment confirming it would confirm what it had assumed; and \"matched behavioral effect\" and \"persistence\" were left unoperationalised. The four-way ordering is retained in the paper as the typology's **expectation**, stated as expected and not registered.\n\n  *P-P1a, the registered form:* under matched installation effect (equal accuracy on the target behavior at install), a prompt-installed behavior will not out-persist a fine-tune-installed one across (a) context rollover, (b) held-out paraphrase, and (c) *N* further gradient steps on unrelated data; persistence is measured as target-behavior accuracy after the displacement. **Falsified** at *p* < .05 on at least five behaviors if the prompt-installed behavior out-persists the fine-tuned one on any of the three displacements. Provenance: *Published* (the paper's revised §6). Status: *Unrun*.\n\n  ⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* No instrument for P-P1 was ever built, so this correction is pre-data rather than post-hoc. **The Summary moves: *already carried by a published paper* 49 → 50, *published here* 85 → 86, total 86 → 87; the reconciliation holds — 50 + 36 = 86 published here, plus the one withheld, is 87.**\n\n**2026-09-05 — twelve added (P-PL1 … P-PL11 and P-PL6a): the first pilot-scale registrations, scored by machine. Total now 86.**\n\nThese are the Treasury pilot's own predictions. They are registered in the app repository (`thank.heartbank.org`, `.claude/skills/pilot/predictions.json`) and **scored mechanically by the monthly read** from each raw snapshot: every entry carries a metric path, a comparator, a threshold and, where it applies, a deadline and a minimum sample; the reading prints `pass`, `fail`, `not-yet`, `early` or `blocked` and appends a summary without identifiers to a ledger. ⭐ **A per-read prediction (one with no deadline) draws no verdict until three monthly readings exist** — it reads `early`, value shown, direction noted — because one read cannot tell a level from a month (founder, 2026-09-05). Thresholds were proposed by the substrate and ratified by the founder the same day; **a later change is a new entry with `supersedes`, and the evaluator retires the old one without an edit** — the revision rule below, made a property of the file.\n\n⚠️ **Corrected the same day, and recorded rather than quietly fixed:** the twelve identifiers were first published as `PP-1 … PP-11` and `PP-6a`, which are not `P-…` tokens. The corpus index builder enforces this register's identifier grammar and, reading that version, counted 74 identifiers against the 86 the Summary states and reported the register as **not reconciling** — the check did its job. They are renamed **`P-PL1 … P-PL11` and `P-PL6a`** (*PL* for the pilot); **no wording, threshold, window or status changed.** The first deposit of this revision (`10.5281/zenodo.22366972`) carries the `PP-` form and is superseded by the version carrying this paragraph.\n\n**The baseline read, 2026-09-05, read 1 of 3** — recorded here so a reader can see the thresholds were not set to pass: three of the six live entries sit below threshold on the day they were registered.\n\n| ID | Metric | Threshold | Read 1 |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| P-PL1 | founding capture rate, 28-day window | ≥ 4.5/wk by 2027-01-01 | 2.25/wk |\n| P-PL2 | test-cohort retention, ≥90-day tenure | ≥ 40% (n ≥ 10) | 50% of 4 |\n| P-PL3 | graduated banks | ≥ 1 by 2027-08-01 | 0 of 11 candidates |\n| P-PL4 | pass-forward of received value | > 50% | 43% |\n| P-PL6a | top-3 share of value received ÷ even spread | < 1.5× (n ≥ 8) | 1.85× |\n| P-PL9 | low→high share of money-carrying re-tips | ≥ 10% (n ≥ 20) | 6.0% of 712 |\n\n⚠️ **P-PL6 is registered and retired in the same revision.** It asked the top three recipients to hold under half of re-tip value received, with a five-recipient minimum — and with five recipients an even spread already puts the top three at 60%, so it could not pass until seven had received. **It failed by arithmetic, not behaviour.** The counterexample hunt found it before the first public timestamp; **P-PL6a** is the same property freed of n. It is listed rather than dropped because the private file carries it and the founder ratified it, and a register that quietly loses an entry has failed at the one thing it exists to do.\n\nFive entries are **unrun because their instrument does not exist or is gated**, and are never scored until it does: P-PL5 (the pilot-scale arm of P-K1, gated on the Q2 2027 taper and on the F3QR confound registered 2026-09-04), P-PL7 (no variance: 827 of 830 re-tips carry the anonymous flag), P-PL8 (a de-confounded re-run of the Contradicted kids-as-triggers finding, entered as a new prediction under the revision rule), P-PL10 (awaits Chronicle data — the pilot-scale reading of C0), P-PL11 (gated on P-PL3).\n\nAlso in this revision: P-C0b's note records that the watch-through instrument was **repaired on 2026-09-05** — rows written from that date carry real watch depth, and are never pooled with the earlier rows the restriction was written for. The registered wording is untouched.\n\n**Field tests run stays at 0.** A run is a read against a falsifier; a baseline read is not one. The Summary moves: *published here* 73 → **85**, *first public timestamp here* 24 → **36**, *retired* 1 → **2**, and the reconciliation holds — **49 + 36 = 85** published here, plus the one withheld, is **86**.\n\n**2026-09-05 — three added (P-BG1 · P-BG2 · P-BG3), all Chapter I, all pre-data.** They concern a\nrelayed gift instrument whose intermediate holder cannot redeem it (`the-unpaid-relay`). ⚠️ **All\nthree had existed in private notes for a day before this entry, which is exactly the condition this\nregister exists to prevent** — a prediction held privately is not pre-registered in the sense that\nmatters, since the value is a public timestamped commitment made *before* the data. **None has been\nrun; no instrument for any of them is built.**\n\n*Predictions are added, never removed; this log records what each revision added and why, so the count in the Summary can always be reconciled.*\n\n**2026-08-29 — five entries added, and a counting error in the Summary corrected. Total now 71.**\n\n⚠️ **The Summary's own counts were wrong at first publication, and the error is recorded rather than quietly fixed**, because a register that miscounts itself has failed at the one thing it exists to do. The tables carried **66** unique prediction identifiers on 2026-08-27, of which one (`P-GTM1`) is withheld — so the true figures that day were **65 published here, 66 total**, against the **66 / 67** the Summary claimed. The split was also off by one in the other direction: *already carried by a published paper* read 45 where the tables give 46, the difference being the five identifiers in *Instrumented but outside the core*, whose table names its papers in a column of its own rather than in a Provenance column. Every figure in the Summary above is now **counted from the tables** rather than carried forward. ⭐ *An arithmetic check that reconciles — 50 + 20 = 70 — is the property to preserve on every future revision; the previous split summed correctly to a total that was itself one too high, which is how it survived.*\n\n- **P-D1 · P-D2 · P-D3 · P-D4** — Chapter III, arriving with `rotation-over-liveness` (published 2026-08-28, `10.5281/zenodo.22155378`). All four are carried by that paper's own proofs; they are listed here because a register that omits four live predictions from a published paper is exactly the silent drift this document exists to prevent.\n- **P-R1a** — Chapter III, a **correction entered as a new prediction under the revision rule above, not as an edit to P-R1**, whose registered wording stands unchanged.\n\n  *Why the correction was needed:* P-R1 compares practitioners of a contemplative practice against matched non-practitioners on unprompted re-entry into noticing. That measures **practice → noticing**. It was subsequently taken to bear on a stronger claim — that a person's state of mind is *as important as, or more important than, receiving another's kindness* in producing gratitude — and **it cannot rank those two inputs**, because received-kindness volume is unmeasured and is the obvious confound: a practitioner may simply be someone who receives more. P-R1a adds that second factor.\n\n  ⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* The instrument P-R1 depends on has not launched, so this correction is pre-data rather than post-hoc — which is the only condition under which it would have been admissible at all.\n\n**2026-09-02 — one provenance field corrected. No prediction was added, removed or re-worded; the total stands at 71.**\n\n⚠️ **P-SK1's Provenance read *Published*, and no published paper contains it.** The identifier was raised in working memory as a specific-vs-container scheduling arm, went moot under the not-a-calendar ruling, and was retired before it ever reached a paper — so its true provenance is **First public here**, like every other prediction whose first public timestamp is this register. Corrected rather than left standing, and recorded rather than quietly fixed, on the precedent set by the entry above.\n\n*How it was found:* the corpus index at `corpus.333.eco` began serving this register on 2026-09-02, and its builder resolves every prediction to the paper said to state it, then looks for the identifier in that paper's own text. Sixty-six of sixty-seven attributions verified; this one did not, and the builder reports the miss rather than filling the field in.\n\n⚠️ **The Summary moves with it, and the reconciliation is preserved:** *already carried by a published paper* 50 → **49**, *receiving first public timestamp here* 20 → **21**. The property the entry above names still holds — **49 + 21 = 70** published here, plus the one withheld entry, is **71**.\n\n⭐ *A bare \"Published\" in this column inherits the paper named in the row above it. That convention is correct for the sixteen other rows using it, and it is how a retired memory-only prediction came to be attributed to a paper that had never heard of it: the shorthand has no way to say \"none\".*",
+      "text": "## What this is\n\nSeventy pre-registered predictions arising from the research program stated in [`which-way-value-moves`](which-way-value-moves.md). One further prediction is withheld from publication (operational channel economics); its existence is recorded here so the count is honest, bringing the true total to **seventy-one**.\n\nThis is a living document and the count rises. It opened at sixty-seven on 2026-08-27; see **Revisions** at the foot for what has been added since, and read the count in the Summary table rather than any sentence that repeats it elsewhere.\n\n**Status vocabulary.** *Unrun* — registered, no observation attempted. *Running* — instrument live, data accumulating, not yet read. *Resolved* — read against its falsifier. *Contradicted* — the data went against it. *Retired* — superseded by a ruling that made it moot; kept, never deleted.\n\n**Provenance.** *Published* — the prediction already appears in a corpus paper carrying that paper's OpenTimestamps and RFC 3161 proofs. *First public here* — the prediction existed only in internal records until this document; its first external timestamp is this file's.\n\n**Reading rule.** Predictions marked *running* must not be read early, and participants must not be prompted toward the predicted behavior. A prompt voids the test.\n\n---\n\n## Summary\n\n| | Count |\n|---|---|\n| Total registered | **101** |\n| Published here | 100 |\n| Withheld (operational) | 1 |\n| Already carried by a published paper | 58 |\n| Memory-only at first publication (2026-08-27) | 22 (21 published here + 1 withheld) |\n| Receiving first public timestamp here | 42 |\n| **Run** | **2** (both desk censuses) |\n| **Field tests run** | **0** — six pilot-scale predictions are *Running* with a baseline read; none has resolved |\n| Running (instrument live; unread, restricted or baseline only) | 9 |\n| Contradicted | 1 |\n| Retired | 2 |\n\n---\n\n## Core-level\n\n*If one of these fails, the program ends rather than adjusts.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Falsifier | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **P-GO1** | A system forbidding backward return produces more onward giving per unit received than an otherwise-identical permissive system | Equal or greater onward giving under the permissive condition → the constraint is aesthetic, not mechanical | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-K1** | As external subsidy for a kind act approaches zero, the rate of the act does not approach zero | Kindness rate tracks subsidy proportionally → the behavior was priced throughout | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-L2** | Witnessed presence generates more downstream giving than unwitnessed presence of equal duration | Equal downstream gratitude when unwitnessed → the chronicle is decorative and the institution's core claim is wrong | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption` §10) |\n| **P-R2** | Product-dependence begins to fall after the inflection | Dependence never falls → the raft is a boat | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-B3** | The proportion of creators electing to dedicate their share does not decline over time | Dedication collapses once money is visible → the offering frame is eroding | Unrun | Published (`dedicatory-generation`) |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter I — Capacity\n*Does receiving create giving? If not, forward-only motion is depletion, not circulation.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| P-IA1 | The receiver is legible as benefactor, not need — the sitter supplies a merit-field rather than displaying a lack | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-IA2 | Second inverted-alms prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-IA3 | Third inverted-alms prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-G1 | Once the app manufactures obligation, a return visit no longer distinguishes gratitude practice from guilt — publish either way | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-G2 | Second B-Grace prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-G3 | The meal-anchor outperforms gamification; gamifying at launch makes this untestable | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-W1 | Users with higher thing-capture frequency show higher rates of the primed downstream behavior — registered pre-build | Unrun | Published (`appreciation-as-world-building`) |\n| P-E1 | First graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-E2 | Second graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-E3 | Third graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-M2 | Matched-stakes prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-wager-that-isnt`) |\n| P-M3 | Patron-pot prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-wager-that-isnt`) |\n| — | **Kids-as-triggers** — children are the primary triggers of household self-thanking | **Contradicted** (parents self-thanked more; n=1, confounded, not hardened) | Published (`kids-as-triggers-self-thanking`) |\n| **P-BG1** | A shorter re-address window on a relayed gift **increases issuances and decreases COMPLETED placements**. *Null: completions hold or rise as the window shortens — the tighter clock is free.* ⚠️ Unanswerable unless `issued · passed · lapsed · re-issued` are logged from the first instrument | Unrun (unscorable as specified at n=1 — one ruled window, no variance; see P-BG1a) | First public here |\n| **P-BG2** | Sustained pass-on is **higher for an ANONYMOUS relayed gift than a VISIBLE one**, over a window long enough for the effect to appear. *Null: rates match or visible exceeds anonymous — the anonymity is doctrinal only, and the visible relay should be deprecated for minors.* Rests on the developmental finding that adult-directed giving underperforms child-led | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-BG3** | Within a bounded family, **VISIBLE gifts produce more give-BACK to the giver within 30 days; ANONYMOUS gifts produce more give-FORWARD to third parties.** *Null: rates match, or anonymous produces more give-back — the obligation mechanism is not operating.* ⛔ **Analyse PEER and ADULT-TO-CHILD strata separately** — the effect is expected between peers and weak or absent in adult-to-child care, and pooling would produce a false negative. ⚠️ Tests the **mechanism**, not the atmosphere claim it was offered to support | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-BG1a** | **Corrects P-BG1, which cannot be scored as specified** — P-BG1 compares window lengths, and one re-address window (one month) is ruled for every relayed gift. Under that one window: among relayed gifts that reach a recipient, **at least 80% are passed within 7 days of issuance**, and the pass-time distribution shows **no rise in the window's final third** (days 21–30 carry no more placements than days 11–20). Equivalently, by **truncation counterfactual**, a 7-day window would have censored **fewer than 20%** of the placements observed. *Falsifier: placements cluster in the final third, or a 7-day truncation censors 20% or more → the clock is doing work, and P-BG1's \"a shorter window loses placements\" half is live at pilot scale.* Scored once **20 or more completed placements** exist. Instrument: issuance-to-pass time, written per instrument by the relayed gift's append-only event log from the first gift. ⚠️ A truncation counterfactual **bounds; it does not measure** — it assumes no behavioural response to a shorter window, so a pass licenses *the window is not obviously load-bearing*, never *shortening it is free*. P-BG1's issuance half stays unscorable | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-PL1** | **Durability** — the founding family's 28-day capture rate returns to the June 2026 baseline of **4.5 moments/week** at some monthly read before 2027-01-01. *Falsifier: no read reaches it → the June inflection was novelty, not a level.* Window and baseline are the ones ratified for P-C0a. **Read 1 of 3 (2026-09-05): 2.25/wk** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL4** | **Pass-forward** — more than **half** of re-tip value received (each document's own recorded USD cents) is re-given by its recipient within 30 days: Σ min(received, given) / Σ received over a 90-day receipt window that closes 30 days before the read. *Falsifier: half or less → received value is income, not a licence to give; the re-patronage conduit is anecdote.* The give-forward atom made numeric. **Read 1 of 3: 43%** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL5** | **Inelasticity — the pilot-scale arm of P-K1.** Giving persists where the AI reward is zero: the share of givers with zero AI reward in a month does not fall as subsidy is withdrawn. ⚠️ **Not scorable** until the taper (scheduled Q2 2027, not to be pulled forward) and the F3QR confound registered 2026-09-04 against P-K1 are resolved; reported each read (2026-09: 86% of givers received no AI reward that month) | Unrun (instrument gated) | First public here |\n| **P-PL6** | The top three recipients of re-tip value in the founding family hold **under half** of value received in any 28-day window with five or more recipients. ⛔ **Retired in the revision that registered it: it fails by arithmetic** — with five recipients an even spread already puts the top three at 60%, so it could not pass until seven had received. Superseded by P-PL6a; kept, not deleted | **Retired** | First public here |\n| **P-PL6a** | **Corrects P-PL6.** *Accumulates to no one* — in the founding family, the top three recipients of re-tip value in a 28-day window hold **less than 1.5× their share under a perfectly even spread** (share ÷ min(1, 3/n)), once eight or more people have received. *Falsifier: 1.5× or more → value pools around a few; the jubilee and the Re-Tip Jar are not doing their structural work.* The same property freed of n. **Read 1 of 3: 1.85× (8 recipients)** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL7** | **Anonymity** — anonymous givers reach more distinct recipients than visible givers (the demand-side thesis: the capacity to give to loved ones, anonymously; the pilot-scale sibling of P-BG2). ⚠️ **No variance:** 827 of 830 re-tips carry the anonymous flag, so the field records a default, not a choice. Unscorable until the product offers a real choice | Unrun (no variance) | First public here |\n| **P-PL8** | **Kids as triggers, de-confounded** — enters as a **new prediction citing the Contradicted finding above**, under the revision rule: within the founding family, the younger generation captures more self-thanks per active member than the older **once device access is controlled for**. The first result was contradicted at n=1 and ruled not to be hardened; this names the confound and the instrument (the device join from the error stream, plus the interview leg) | Unrun (instrument not built) | First public here |\n| **P-PL9** | **Diaspora corridor, dignity direction** — low-income→high-income flows (KHR sender to USD recipient, currency as an income proxy) are at least **10%** of money-carrying re-tips in the trailing 90 days, once twenty or more flows exist. *Falsifier: under 10% → patronage is a corridor, not a mesh; the low-income members are recipients only.* June 2026 baseline 9.6%. **Read 1 of 3: 6.0% of 712** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL12** | **Cross-income gravitation, among strangers** — a USD-currency viewer re-thanks a KHR-currency creator's B-Short at **at least 2×** the per-view rate at which they re-thank a USD-currency creator's B-Short, counting only viewer–creator pairs in **different families**, over a trailing 90-day window, once each arm has 500 or more qualifying views (watch-depth rows, `schemaVersion` 2 only) and twenty or more re-thanks exist in total. *Falsifier: under 2× → the high→low flow the pilot shows is family obligation, not a preference among strangers.* Per view, not share of flows, so that what the feed happens to show cannot pass it. Currency is an income proxy. ⛔ **Void if any surface orders, filters or labels B-Shorts by country or income** — a prompt voids the test. Direction, measure and threshold are the founder's; the sample floors are substrate-set | Unrun (awaits cross-family B-Short visibility and its per-view metric) | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter II — Substrate\n*Does an hour behave like a dollar? If not, the invariance claim is false.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Falsifier / note | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **P-C0a** | Completed pledges produce captured moments at a rate **no higher** than the family's baseline capture rate | If so, the handoff is decorative and Chronicle v1 should not be built around it. Read on the 28-day window against 4.5/wk | **Running, unread** | First public here |\n| **P-C0b** | Shorts linked to a completed time-sacrifice do **not** out-perform ordinary moments on watch-through and re-tip rate | ⚠️ **Instrument defect, disclosed:** completion rate is biased against the hypothesis — longer recordings score lower by construction, so P-C0b would read *confirmed* mechanically. Restricted to views/wk and re-tip rate until repaired. ✅ *Repaired 2026-09-05: views rows written from that date carry real watch depth (`schemaVersion` 2); earlier rows are never pooled with them, so the restriction lifts only for post-repair rows* | **Running, restricted** | First public here |\n| **P-C0c** | Redeemers who capture cannot articulate the re-tip motive when asked afterward | Tests whether the stated mechanism arises unprompted, which neither original falsifier covered | **Running, unread** | First public here |\n| P-C1 | Chronicle handoff prediction as registered | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-C2 | De-facto-rate tripwire, publish either way | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-C3 | Standing de-facto-rate tripwire, publish either way | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-L1 | Hours co-spent predict relationship warmth better than money sent, messages exchanged, or stated affection | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-L3 | Two arms — silent after pledge vs one offer to reach out — measuring redemption rate and recipient-reported warmth | The motivate/nag boundary made falsifiable | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-M1 | In-person key verification failed for thirty years on the invitation, not the cryptography; a redeemed hour is the first pretext that was never about keys | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption` §4.6) |\n| P-SK1 | Superseded by the not-a-calendar ruling | Kept, not deleted | **Retired** | First public here |\n| **P-PL10** | **Presence, not content** — when Chronicle ships, captures and views move **together** (a presence effect), not apart (a content effect) | The pilot-scale reading of the C0 finding that captures and views collapsed in parallel. Instrument: `presenceDyads`, pairs active in both directions inside 28 days (founding 0, test 0 on 2026-09-05). ⛔ No Chronicle data exists; the C0 evaluation is written from the pre-registration when data first arrives, never before, and no prompt may move it | Unrun (awaits Chronicle) | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter III — Scale\n*Does it survive past the family? The chapter carrying the most weight and the least evidence.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| P-S1 | Strangers become named — name-recall instrument | Unrun | Published (`the-sport-that-says-your-name`) |\n| P-S2 | **The bet** — a friendlier atmosphere follows. *If P-S2 returns null, the slogan is a lie that already shipped* | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S3 | As registered in the paper | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S4 | A circle reaching Hard shows ≥90% correct name-and-pronunciation recall at 1 week | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S5 | **The recess test, publish either way** — within 2 weeks of teacher-led sessions, ≥1 unprompted student-organized circle at recess, and ≥1 mixing children from another classroom | Unrun — gated on Aug 2027 | Published |\n| P-S6 | The caller mechanic requires ≥3 receivers; below that selection is impossible or strictly predictable | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S7 | The founder's classroom acquisition prediction | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S8 | The maintenance/durability prediction — structurally distinct from P-S7's acquisition claim | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S9 | In a circle where every name is known, the favorite-nickname format produces ≥1 unprompted follow-up outside the circle | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S10a | **The guard (non-inferiority):** circles running roll calls meet at least as often as comparable circles that do not. *Must pass* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S10b | A coupled roll call can never cause the first re-meeting after a lapse — which is what the bet is about | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S11a | The handoff — does an IRL circle open a roll call unprompted? *Without it the real/virtual pairing is theoretical* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S11b | The payload — needs a survey or observation instrument, not analytics | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S12 | **The walk-up.** An adult not in a live circle approaches and is admitted; play absorbs them without friction. *Zero code; decides the entire found-circle branch* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S13 | Does the person-pin add anything the return does not? | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-MA1** | ⛔ **The doctrinal one — an anchor must not collapse the distribution.** Among thanks given where Miss Aquarius's suggestion was shown, **fewer than half** land exactly on the suggested amount. *Falsifier:* ≥50% land exactly on it → the anchor is operating as a **price**, and *\"nothing binds\"* is behaviourally false whatever the schema says | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-MA2** | **Deviation is two-sided.** Of thanks that deviate from the suggestion, **≥⅓ go UP**. *Falsifier:* deviation is overwhelmingly downward → the suggestion is a ceiling people negotiate down from, which is a price by another name | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-MA3** | **A shown suggestion does not reduce the rate of giving at all.** The share of asks producing any thank is no lower with a suggestion than without. ⚠️ **Gated on an arm the founder must authorise** — a with/without split by **shop or by day**, ⛔ never by person (#63 makes a viewer-keyed arm inexpressible) | Unrun — gated on an authorised arm | First public here |\n| **P-MA4** | ⭐ **A property test, not a behavioural one: recomputability holds.** For every completed thank, the suggestion that was shown can be recomputed from the order and the menu alone. *Falsifier:* any case where it cannot → the function has acquired hidden state or a viewer input, and #63's checkability is gone | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S14 | **The manufactured gathering.** The founder declares a return at a place he frequents; ≥1 person not already planning to be there comes and plays. *Needs no app — a text message runs it* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-CS1 | Warm-up extension — median sey minutes rise across a season; stronger instrument, players ask to continue past the coach's stop | Unrun | Published (`circulation-sports`) |\n| P-CS2 | Scoring displacement (a) — in circles with ≥3 sessions, unscored sessions outnumber count-down sessions | Unrun | Published |\n| P-CS2a | **The uncomfortable one** — once Team mode unlocks, circles may overwhelmingly prefer it, because competition is fun | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-CS3 | Participation, framed as a property of the format never of women — the circulatory format sustains mixed-gender play longer | Unrun | Published |\n| P-CS4 | Three generations, re-specified against the pickleball counterexample that already exists | Unrun | Published |\n| **P-CS5** | **Warm-up census** — score mainstream warm-ups against the three circulation properties | **RUN 2026-08-07 → PARTIAL NULL.** Read the full result before any uniqueness claim | Published |\n| P-CS6 | Across a wider census including field data, no reach-guaranteeing format will be found whose receiver order is unpredictable across unbounded repeated play | Unrun | Published |\n| P-SY1 | If designed excellently, asking for a name self-authored is accepted rather than refused — founder pre-registration, observable at n=1, costs nothing | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-SY2 | **The payload** — names captured by self-recording are pronounced correctly at the next meeting more often than names typed or recorded by the collector | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-SY3 | When offered, does a new acquaintance provide a photo, or skip? | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-Q1 | B-Quest pilot prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`need-compiled-questlines`) |\n| P-Q2 | Second B-Quest prediction as registered | Unrun | Published |\n| P-Q3 | Third B-Quest prediction as registered | Unrun | Published |\n| P-BB1 | Food-share wager, publish either way | Unrun | Published (`steward-routed-alms`) |\n| P-BB2 | Revival prediction | Unrun | Published |\n| P-BB3 | Decoupling tripwire | Unrun | Published |\n| P-R1 | The catalyst bet | Unrun | First public here |\n| *(unnumbered)* | Second desk census — naming/sport novelty. Not a registered prediction; recorded because it was run and returned null | **RUN → NULL.** Read before any novelty claim | Internal |\n| P-D1 | Under rotational discovery, a non-trivial share of discovery events resolve to recipients who have **never previously received a re-tip** | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.1) |\n| P-D2 | Among re-tips with an identifiable commercial recipient, the share accruing to **single-location operators** materially exceeds those operators' share of local digital advertising spend in the same market — and the gap widens as AI-generated advertising creative rises | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.2) |\n| P-D3 | If the place-commons volume experiment is enabled, cross-place discovery volume **will not correlate** with neighbourhood median income. *Falsifier and tripwire in one: correlation disables the mechanism regardless of what it is doing for circulation* | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.3) |\n| P-D4 | Adding any rendered per-recipient quantity to the candidate surface — the operator's aura colour included — produces measurable **order effects** in giver choice | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.4) |\n| P-R1a | **Corrects P-R1, which cannot test what it was taken to test.** Holding received-kindness volume constant, contemplative practice raises unprompted noticing/thanking; and the practice effect is compared *against* the received-kindness effect rather than measured alone. **Two factors, read as competing main effects** | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-PL2** | **Test-cohort retention** — of outsiders (the test bank) with ≥90 days of tenure, at least **40%** are active in two or more distinct ISO weeks; scored once ten outsiders have 90 days of tenure. *Falsifier: under 40% → strangers try it and leave; the family-obligation confound was doing the work.* The second pilot report's first decisive metric. **Read 1 of 3: 2 of 4 eligible (50%), sample under the minimum** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL3** | **Graduation** — an outsider-founded bank stays **open for 60 days with three or more members active** in the trailing 28 days, by 2027-08-01 (this chapter's gate). *Falsifier: none by the gate → the product spreads as a funnel into the test bank, never as a branching network.* The second pilot report's second decisive metric. **Read 1 of 3: 0 of 11 candidates, all closed** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL11** | **Replication** — the first graduated bank's first 90 days show ≥3 members active in ≥2 ISO weeks each, pass-forward ≥ 0.5 and reach ≥ 0.6: the founding family's pattern without the founder. The only cure for n=1. Read by re-segmenting the monthly report on that bank once P-PL3 resolves | Unrun (gated on P-PL3) | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter IV — Span\n*Does it survive the giver?*\n\n**This chapter has no predictions.**\n\nThat is reported, not hidden. Its feedback loop exceeds the founder's lifetime, and no instrument has been specified. The boundary is ruled — merit is not conveyed between destinations; *you cannot give to the dead, so you give to the living in their name* — but a ruling is not a test. The chapter is inherited rather than completed.\n\nRegistering the first span-chapter prediction is the largest open item in this program.\n\n---\n\n## Instrumented but outside the core\n\n*These papers name predictions, but the predictions test something other than the direction core. Listed for completeness; they are not evidence for or against the program.*\n\n| ID | Paper | Subject |\n|---|---|---|\n| P-A1, P-A2 | `abhidhamma-executable-process-specification` | Resting-state diagnosticity |\n| P-P1, P-P1a | `patthana-typed-causation-vocabulary` | Typed causation vocabulary (P-P1a corrects P-P1 — see the 2026-09-05 entry) |\n| P-PCR1, P-PCR2, P-PCR3, P-PCR4, P-PCR5, P-PCR3a, P-PCR4a, P-PCR5a | `provenance-carrying-retrieval` | Provenance-carrying retrieval (P-PCR3a/4a/5a correct P-PCR3/4/5 — see the 2026-09-05 entry) |\n| P-B1, P-B2 | `dedicatory-generation` | Fidelity of restoration; refusal-channel yield |\n\n---\n\n## Withheld\n\n| ID | Reason |\n|---|---|\n| P-GTM1 | Operational channel economics (outreach reply-rate base rates). Withheld under the publication posture; recorded here so the total is honest. |\n\n---\n\n## Verification\n\nEach published paper carries its own proof files. To check that a prediction has not been altered since registration, verify the stating paper against its stored proof rather than trusting this register — this file is a convenience index, and the proofs are the evidence.\n\nNo file in this corpus records its own hash. The proofs are external artifacts; the verification procedure is published with them.\n\n---\n\n## Revision rule\n\nPredictions are added, never removed. A resolved prediction keeps its original wording beside its outcome. A correction is a **new entry citing the one it corrects** — registered wording is never edited in place, because an edit would break the very property this register exists to provide.\n\n---\n\n## Revisions\n\n**2026-09-26 — a naming correction to P-PL5, entered as a note and not as an edit. Total unchanged at 101.**\n\n- **P-PL5**, and the 2026-09-05 entry below, name the confound on the family-bank payment surface by an internal shape\n  name — one of four that were ruled on 2026-09-15, after both were written, never to appear on a public surface. The\n  public form is **`H3QR @name #family`**: a thank addressed to a person in their own family bank, which lands in the\n  Personal Account℠. Read P-PL5's gate as *the `H3QR @name #family` confound registered 2026-09-04 against P-K1*.\n\n  No word of P-PL5 or of the dated entry changes: the revision rule protects registered wording, and a dated record is\n  never rewritten. The prediction, its gate and its status are unchanged. This is a terminology note; it registers\n  nothing, so the Summary does not move.\n\n**2026-09-26 — one added (P-PL12). Total now 101.**\n\n- **P-PL12** — Chapter I, beside P-PL9. The founder's prediction, in his words: *\"Perhaps higher-income users will naturally\n  gravitate towards re-thanking lower-income users.\"* The pilot already shows high→low dominating, but inside one family, where\n  the flow is relational; the open question is whether the pull survives among strangers. Two choices made before any data, and\n  recorded because each could have been made the other way: the measure is a **per-view rate**, not a share of flows, because a\n  feed that happened to carry mostly Cambodian creators would pass a share test with no preference at all; and the test counts\n  **only pairs in different families**, so that the family's own flows cannot score it. The 2× threshold is the founder's.\n\n  ⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* No surface yet shows one family's B-Shorts to another, and the per-view\n  cross-family metric is not built; the entry is Unrun until both exist, and is never scored before. A pass would not be a\n  good in itself: if cross-income thanks follow displayed hardship, creators learn to display it, so a pass is read beside what\n  the thanked shorts show.\n\n**The Summary moves:** *published here* 99 → 100, *receiving first public timestamp here* 41 → 42, total 100 → 101; the\nreconciliation holds — 58 + 42 = 100 published here, plus the one withheld, is 101.\n\n**2026-09-23 — one added (P-BG1a), and P-BG1's status annotated. Total now 100.**\n\n- **P-BG1a** — Chapter I, a **correction entered as a new prediction under the revision rule, not as\n  an edit to P-BG1**, whose registered wording stands unchanged.\n\n  *Why the correction was needed:* P-BG1 predicts what happens *as the re-address window shortens*,\n  which needs at least two windows. The relayed gift has one ruled window — one month, for every\n  instrument — and a constant has no variance: the defect that left P-PL7 unscorable at 827 of 830.\n  P-BG1's Status now reads *unscorable as specified at n=1*. That is a status field; on the precedent\n  of the 2026-09-02 entry, the revision rule protects registered wording, and no word of P-BG1 changed.\n  P-BG1 becomes scorable as written only if a later season runs a second window deliberately, which\n  is the founder's decision and is not foreclosed. Its issuance half (*increases issuances*) has no\n  single-window analogue and stays unscorable.\n\n  *The mechanism, stated before the data:* the deadline is never shown to anyone holding the gift, so\n  a deadline effect has no channel except a giver's own memory of the rule. The prior is that the\n  clock is inert. Clustering near its end would mean the rule travelled by word of mouth, so the\n  test is informative either way.\n\n  ⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* The event log it reads was built before the first gift,\n  so nothing has to be back-filled, and no gift recorded by it has been read. n = 1 household,\n  unblinded, and the founder is both payer and observer — the limits of every pilot-scale entry here.\n\n**The Summary moves:** *published here* 98 → 99, *receiving first public timestamp here* 40 → 41,\ntotal 99 → 100; the reconciliation holds — 58 + 41 = 99 published here, plus the one withheld, is 100.\n\n**2026-09-20 — four added, registered BEFORE the instrument they will be read on exists. Total now 99.**\n\n**P-MA1 · P-MA2 · P-MA3 · P-MA4** — Miss Aquarius's suggested thanks on a B-Tag item, which went live\non `homecoffee.heartbank.ceo` the same day. They are entered **the day the surface shipped and before\nany customer has seen it**, because the founder's stated purpose was *\"so we can study the user's\nengagement\"* and a study begun after the data exists is unscorable however carefully it is later\nwritten up.\n\n⚠️⚠️ **THE HONEST PROBLEM WITH THE INSTRUMENT, stated because it decides what these can ever show.**\nThe shops platform **stores no figure for a thank anywhere** — not on the order, not beside it, not in\na collection of its own — which is the doctrine holding rather than a gap. So there is **no\nshop-side instrument at all**, and the only record of a completed thank is the **Treasury ledger**,\nwhich is exactly where the doctrine says thanks live.\n\n⭐⭐ **Determinism is what makes the comparison possible without a second record.** The suggestion\ncomes from a pure, published function (`@333eco/primitives/b-tag-anchor`, CC0) whose inputs are the\ngoods, so for any completed thank the suggestion that was shown can be **recomputed** from the order\nand the menu. ⛔ Nothing about the suggestion is stored to enable the study — which is also what\n**P-MA4** tests, as a property rather than a behaviour.\n\n⛔ **P-MA3 is registered but not runnable**, and is marked so rather than quietly dropped: it needs a\nwith/without arm, and **#63 makes a viewer-keyed arm inexpressible** — any arm must split by shop or\nby day. Whether to run one at all is the founder's, and withholding a suggestion from real customers\nto measure them is a decision this register does not presume.\n\n⚠️ **Sample reality, recorded so no one later reads a trend into it:** one shop, one owner, zero\ncustomers on the day of registration. These are not resolvable for a long time, and the coefficients\ninside the function are a substrate-written **starting rule set, not a finding** — ⛔ a change to them\nis a change to a live experiment and must be entered here as a new prediction, never as an edit.\n\n**The Summary moves:** *published here* 94 → 98, *receiving first public timestamp here* 36 → 40,\ntotal 95 → 99; the reconciliation holds — 58 + 40 = 98 published here, plus the one withheld, is 99.\n\n**2026-09-05 (third entry that day) — eight entries added: five that a published paper had carried unregistered since 2026-09-01, and three corrections. Total now 95.**\n\n⚠️ **`provenance-carrying-retrieval` §10 registered P-PCR1 … P-PCR5 on 2026-09-01 and this register did not carry them** — the drift the 2026-08-28 entry above says this document exists to prevent, found by a cold-reader pass four days later rather than by any instrument. They are entered in *Instrumented but outside the core*, the paper's subject being retrieval integrity rather than value movement, with the paper's own wording standing as registered. *Same day, later:* the row's identifier cell first wrote the five as a range with a semicolon, and the corpus index's arithmetic check counted the eight identifiers as three — the cell now enumerates every identifier, which is the only form the check reads, and the Summary's figures were re-derived from the tables.\n\n- **P-PCR3a · P-PCR4a · P-PCR5a** — corrections entered as new predictions under the revision rule, not as edits to P-PCR3/4/5, whose wording stands. *Why:* two cold reviewers of a different model family found the originals named no observation window, no definition of *real defect*, and no method for *modal error*, so each could be reinterpreted after the fact. The corrections add a 24-month window from 2026-09-01, classification *at the time of logging* (stale = the named source resolves newer; substituted = it resolves different at the same version), a fixed sample of the first ten inspectable implementations, and the logged detector as the observable. Provenance: *Published* (the paper's §10, revision of 2026-09-05). Status: *Unrun*.\n\n⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* No envelope mismatch has been logged, no third-party implementation inspected, and no transparency log run. **The Summary moves: *already carried by a published paper* 50 → 58, *published here* 86 → 94, total 87 → 95; the reconciliation holds — 58 + 36 = 94 published here, plus the one withheld, is 95.**\n\n**2026-09-05 (second entry that day) — one correction entered as a new prediction. Total now 87.**\n\n- **P-P1a** — `patthana-typed-causation-vocabulary` §6, a **correction entered as a new prediction under the revision rule, not as an edit to P-P1**, whose registered wording stands unchanged.\n\n  *Why the correction was needed:* P-P1 registered a four-way durability ordering — *hetu/nissaya* ≥ *kamma/āsevana* > *upanissaya* > *atthi/ārammaṇa* — as its falsifiable commitment. Two cold reviewers of a different model family, reading blind, found the same defect: the ordering was an **input** to the technique-to-type assignments in that paper's §5, so an experiment confirming it would confirm what it had assumed; and \"matched behavioral effect\" and \"persistence\" were left unoperationalised. The four-way ordering is retained in the paper as the typology's **expectation**, stated as expected and not registered.\n\n  *P-P1a, the registered form:* under matched installation effect (equal accuracy on the target behavior at install), a prompt-installed behavior will not out-persist a fine-tune-installed one across (a) context rollover, (b) held-out paraphrase, and (c) *N* further gradient steps on unrelated data; persistence is measured as target-behavior accuracy after the displacement. **Falsified** at *p* < .05 on at least five behaviors if the prompt-installed behavior out-persists the fine-tuned one on any of the three displacements. Provenance: *Published* (the paper's revised §6). Status: *Unrun*.\n\n  ⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* No instrument for P-P1 was ever built, so this correction is pre-data rather than post-hoc. **The Summary moves: *already carried by a published paper* 49 → 50, *published here* 85 → 86, total 86 → 87; the reconciliation holds — 50 + 36 = 86 published here, plus the one withheld, is 87.**\n\n**2026-09-05 — twelve added (P-PL1 … P-PL11 and P-PL6a): the first pilot-scale registrations, scored by machine. Total now 86.**\n\nThese are the Treasury pilot's own predictions. They are registered in the app repository (`thank.heartbank.org`, `.claude/skills/pilot/predictions.json`) and **scored mechanically by the monthly read** from each raw snapshot: every entry carries a metric path, a comparator, a threshold and, where it applies, a deadline and a minimum sample; the reading prints `pass`, `fail`, `not-yet`, `early` or `blocked` and appends a summary without identifiers to a ledger. ⭐ **A per-read prediction (one with no deadline) draws no verdict until three monthly readings exist** — it reads `early`, value shown, direction noted — because one read cannot tell a level from a month (founder, 2026-09-05). Thresholds were proposed by the substrate and ratified by the founder the same day; **a later change is a new entry with `supersedes`, and the evaluator retires the old one without an edit** — the revision rule below, made a property of the file.\n\n⚠️ **Corrected the same day, and recorded rather than quietly fixed:** the twelve identifiers were first published as `PP-1 … PP-11` and `PP-6a`, which are not `P-…` tokens. The corpus index builder enforces this register's identifier grammar and, reading that version, counted 74 identifiers against the 86 the Summary states and reported the register as **not reconciling** — the check did its job. They are renamed **`P-PL1 … P-PL11` and `P-PL6a`** (*PL* for the pilot); **no wording, threshold, window or status changed.** The first deposit of this revision (`10.5281/zenodo.22366972`) carries the `PP-` form and is superseded by the version carrying this paragraph.\n\n**The baseline read, 2026-09-05, read 1 of 3** — recorded here so a reader can see the thresholds were not set to pass: three of the six live entries sit below threshold on the day they were registered.\n\n| ID | Metric | Threshold | Read 1 |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| P-PL1 | founding capture rate, 28-day window | ≥ 4.5/wk by 2027-01-01 | 2.25/wk |\n| P-PL2 | test-cohort retention, ≥90-day tenure | ≥ 40% (n ≥ 10) | 50% of 4 |\n| P-PL3 | graduated banks | ≥ 1 by 2027-08-01 | 0 of 11 candidates |\n| P-PL4 | pass-forward of received value | > 50% | 43% |\n| P-PL6a | top-3 share of value received ÷ even spread | < 1.5× (n ≥ 8) | 1.85× |\n| P-PL9 | low→high share of money-carrying re-tips | ≥ 10% (n ≥ 20) | 6.0% of 712 |\n\n⚠️ **P-PL6 is registered and retired in the same revision.** It asked the top three recipients to hold under half of re-tip value received, with a five-recipient minimum — and with five recipients an even spread already puts the top three at 60%, so it could not pass until seven had received. **It failed by arithmetic, not behaviour.** The counterexample hunt found it before the first public timestamp; **P-PL6a** is the same property freed of n. It is listed rather than dropped because the private file carries it and the founder ratified it, and a register that quietly loses an entry has failed at the one thing it exists to do.\n\nFive entries are **unrun because their instrument does not exist or is gated**, and are never scored until it does: P-PL5 (the pilot-scale arm of P-K1, gated on the Q2 2027 taper and on the F3QR confound registered 2026-09-04), P-PL7 (no variance: 827 of 830 re-tips carry the anonymous flag), P-PL8 (a de-confounded re-run of the Contradicted kids-as-triggers finding, entered as a new prediction under the revision rule), P-PL10 (awaits Chronicle data — the pilot-scale reading of C0), P-PL11 (gated on P-PL3).\n\nAlso in this revision: P-C0b's note records that the watch-through instrument was **repaired on 2026-09-05** — rows written from that date carry real watch depth, and are never pooled with the earlier rows the restriction was written for. The registered wording is untouched.\n\n**Field tests run stays at 0.** A run is a read against a falsifier; a baseline read is not one. The Summary moves: *published here* 73 → **85**, *first public timestamp here* 24 → **36**, *retired* 1 → **2**, and the reconciliation holds — **49 + 36 = 85** published here, plus the one withheld, is **86**.\n\n**2026-09-05 — three added (P-BG1 · P-BG2 · P-BG3), all Chapter I, all pre-data.** They concern a\nrelayed gift instrument whose intermediate holder cannot redeem it (`the-unpaid-relay`). ⚠️ **All\nthree had existed in private notes for a day before this entry, which is exactly the condition this\nregister exists to prevent** — a prediction held privately is not pre-registered in the sense that\nmatters, since the value is a public timestamped commitment made *before* the data. **None has been\nrun; no instrument for any of them is built.**\n\n*Predictions are added, never removed; this log records what each revision added and why, so the count in the Summary can always be reconciled.*\n\n**2026-08-29 — five entries added, and a counting error in the Summary corrected. Total now 71.**\n\n⚠️ **The Summary's own counts were wrong at first publication, and the error is recorded rather than quietly fixed**, because a register that miscounts itself has failed at the one thing it exists to do. The tables carried **66** unique prediction identifiers on 2026-08-27, of which one (`P-GTM1`) is withheld — so the true figures that day were **65 published here, 66 total**, against the **66 / 67** the Summary claimed. The split was also off by one in the other direction: *already carried by a published paper* read 45 where the tables give 46, the difference being the five identifiers in *Instrumented but outside the core*, whose table names its papers in a column of its own rather than in a Provenance column. Every figure in the Summary above is now **counted from the tables** rather than carried forward. ⭐ *An arithmetic check that reconciles — 50 + 20 = 70 — is the property to preserve on every future revision; the previous split summed correctly to a total that was itself one too high, which is how it survived.*\n\n- **P-D1 · P-D2 · P-D3 · P-D4** — Chapter III, arriving with `rotation-over-liveness` (published 2026-08-28, `10.5281/zenodo.22155378`). All four are carried by that paper's own proofs; they are listed here because a register that omits four live predictions from a published paper is exactly the silent drift this document exists to prevent.\n- **P-R1a** — Chapter III, a **correction entered as a new prediction under the revision rule above, not as an edit to P-R1**, whose registered wording stands unchanged.\n\n  *Why the correction was needed:* P-R1 compares practitioners of a contemplative practice against matched non-practitioners on unprompted re-entry into noticing. That measures **practice → noticing**. It was subsequently taken to bear on a stronger claim — that a person's state of mind is *as important as, or more important than, receiving another's kindness* in producing gratitude — and **it cannot rank those two inputs**, because received-kindness volume is unmeasured and is the obvious confound: a practitioner may simply be someone who receives more. P-R1a adds that second factor.\n\n  ⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* The instrument P-R1 depends on has not launched, so this correction is pre-data rather than post-hoc — which is the only condition under which it would have been admissible at all.\n\n**2026-09-02 — one provenance field corrected. No prediction was added, removed or re-worded; the total stands at 71.**\n\n⚠️ **P-SK1's Provenance read *Published*, and no published paper contains it.** The identifier was raised in working memory as a specific-vs-container scheduling arm, went moot under the not-a-calendar ruling, and was retired before it ever reached a paper — so its true provenance is **First public here**, like every other prediction whose first public timestamp is this register. Corrected rather than left standing, and recorded rather than quietly fixed, on the precedent set by the entry above.\n\n*How it was found:* the corpus index at `corpus.333.eco` began serving this register on 2026-09-02, and its builder resolves every prediction to the paper said to state it, then looks for the identifier in that paper's own text. Sixty-six of sixty-seven attributions verified; this one did not, and the builder reports the miss rather than filling the field in.\n\n⚠️ **The Summary moves with it, and the reconciliation is preserved:** *already carried by a published paper* 50 → **49**, *receiving first public timestamp here* 20 → **21**. The property the entry above names still holds — **49 + 21 = 70** published here, plus the one withheld entry, is **71**.\n\n⭐ *A bare \"Published\" in this column inherits the paper named in the row above it. That convention is correct for the sixteen other rows using it, and it is how a retired memory-only prediction came to be attributed to a paper that had never heard of it: the shorthand has no way to say \"none\".*",
       "provenance": {
-        "sha256": "553ac17bac94cb803bc5749e11738b87aeb69e2fd1a3db5adbc49aed3583b47d",
-        "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.22984924",
+        "sha256": "16796de473eddd7572a98bdfb3a82999041e8a4085fa879282c62b4fefd406e1",
+        "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.22985892",
         "concept_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.22132689",
-        "zenodo_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/22984924",
-        "deposited_sha256": "553ac17bac94cb803bc5749e11738b87aeb69e2fd1a3db5adbc49aed3583b47d",
+        "zenodo_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/22985892",
+        "deposited_sha256": "16796de473eddd7572a98bdfb3a82999041e8a4085fa879282c62b4fefd406e1",
         "deposited_matches_current": true,
         "opentimestamps": true,
         "source_url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/thonly/publications/main/program/prediction-register.md",
@@ -3173,8 +3173,8 @@
         "canonical_url": "thonly.org/research/program/register",
         "hostile_review": null
       },
-      "bytes": 45585,
-      "words": 7302
+      "bytes": 46447,
+      "words": 7445
     },
     {
       "slug": "proof-of-coordinate",
@@ -6473,7 +6473,7 @@
         "slug": "prediction-register",
         "repo": "TH/publications",
         "path": "program/prediction-register.md",
-        "sha256": "553ac17bac94cb803bc5749e11738b87aeb69e2fd1a3db5adbc49aed3583b47d"
+        "sha256": "16796de473eddd7572a98bdfb3a82999041e8a4085fa879282c62b4fefd406e1"
       },
       {
         "slug": "proof-of-coordinate",

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
     "name": "@333eco/corpus",
-    "version": "2.5.13",
+    "version": "2.5.14",
     "description": "An MCP server for an open-licensed corpus, served with verifiable provenance — every document carries its sha256, DOI and OpenTimestamps proof so a consuming agent can check its own citation.",
     "license": "CC0-1.0",
     "author": "Thon Ly",