@333eco/corpus 2.1.4 → 2.1.5

package/dist/corpus.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "package_version": "2.1.4",
+  "package_version": "2.1.5",
   "generated_from": [
     "H3/publications",
     "TH/publications",
@@ -2853,13 +2853,13 @@
         "url": "https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/",
         "attribution_required": false
       },
-      "text": "## What this is\n\nSeventy pre-registered predictions arising from the research program stated in [`which-way-value-moves`](which-way-value-moves.md). One further prediction is withheld from publication (operational channel economics); its existence is recorded here so the count is honest, bringing the true total to **seventy-one**.\n\nThis is a living document and the count rises. It opened at sixty-seven on 2026-08-27; see **Revisions** at the foot for what has been added since, and read the count in the Summary table rather than any sentence that repeats it elsewhere.\n\n**Status vocabulary.** *Unrun* — registered, no observation attempted. *Running* — instrument live, data accumulating, not yet read. *Resolved* — read against its falsifier. *Contradicted* — the data went against it. *Retired* — superseded by a ruling that made it moot; kept, never deleted.\n\n**Provenance.** *Published* — the prediction already appears in a corpus paper carrying that paper's OpenTimestamps and RFC 3161 proofs. *First public here* — the prediction existed only in internal records until this document; its first external timestamp is this file's.\n\n**Reading rule.** Predictions marked *running* must not be read early, and participants must not be prompted toward the predicted behavior. A prompt voids the test.\n\n---\n\n## Summary\n\n| | Count |\n|---|---|\n| Total registered | **74** |\n| Published here | 73 |\n| Withheld (operational) | 1 |\n| Already carried by a published paper | 49 |\n| Memory-only at first publication (2026-08-27) | 22 (21 published here + 1 withheld) |\n| Receiving first public timestamp here | 24 |\n| **Run** | **2** (both desk censuses) |\n| **Field tests run** | **0** |\n| Contradicted | 1 |\n| Retired | 1 |\n\n---\n\n## Core-level\n\n*If one of these fails, the program ends rather than adjusts.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Falsifier | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **P-GO1** | A system forbidding backward return produces more onward giving per unit received than an otherwise-identical permissive system | Equal or greater onward giving under the permissive condition → the constraint is aesthetic, not mechanical | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-K1** | As external subsidy for a kind act approaches zero, the rate of the act does not approach zero | Kindness rate tracks subsidy proportionally → the behavior was priced throughout | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-L2** | Witnessed presence generates more downstream giving than unwitnessed presence of equal duration | Equal downstream gratitude when unwitnessed → the chronicle is decorative and the institution's core claim is wrong | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption` §10) |\n| **P-R2** | Product-dependence begins to fall after the inflection | Dependence never falls → the raft is a boat | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-B3** | The proportion of creators electing to dedicate their share does not decline over time | Dedication collapses once money is visible → the offering frame is eroding | Unrun | Published (`dedicatory-generation`) |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter I — Capacity\n*Does receiving create giving? If not, forward-only motion is depletion, not circulation.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| P-IA1 | The receiver is legible as benefactor, not need — the sitter supplies a merit-field rather than displaying a lack | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-IA2 | Second inverted-alms prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-IA3 | Third inverted-alms prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-G1 | Once the app manufactures obligation, a return visit no longer distinguishes gratitude practice from guilt — publish either way | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-G2 | Second B-Grace prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-G3 | The meal-anchor outperforms gamification; gamifying at launch makes this untestable | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-W1 | Users with higher thing-capture frequency show higher rates of the primed downstream behavior — registered pre-build | Unrun | Published (`appreciation-as-world-building`) |\n| P-E1 | First graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-E2 | Second graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-E3 | Third graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-M2 | Matched-stakes prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-wager-that-isnt`) |\n| P-M3 | Patron-pot prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-wager-that-isnt`) |\n| — | **Kids-as-triggers** — children are the primary triggers of household self-thanking | **Contradicted** (parents self-thanked more; n=1, confounded, not hardened) | Published (`kids-as-triggers-self-thanking`) |\n| **P-BG1** | A shorter re-address window on a relayed gift **increases issuances and decreases COMPLETED placements**. *Null: completions hold or rise as the window shortens — the tighter clock is free.* ⚠️ Unanswerable unless `issued · passed · lapsed · re-issued` are logged from the first instrument | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-BG2** | Sustained pass-on is **higher for an ANONYMOUS relayed gift than a VISIBLE one**, over a window long enough for the effect to appear. *Null: rates match or visible exceeds anonymous — the anonymity is doctrinal only, and the visible relay should be deprecated for minors.* Rests on the developmental finding that adult-directed giving underperforms child-led | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-BG3** | Within a bounded family, **VISIBLE gifts produce more give-BACK to the giver within 30 days; ANONYMOUS gifts produce more give-FORWARD to third parties.** *Null: rates match, or anonymous produces more give-back — the obligation mechanism is not operating.* ⛔ **Analyse PEER and ADULT-TO-CHILD strata separately** — the effect is expected between peers and weak or absent in adult-to-child care, and pooling would produce a false negative. ⚠️ Tests the **mechanism**, not the atmosphere claim it was offered to support | Unrun | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter II — Substrate\n*Does an hour behave like a dollar? If not, the invariance claim is false.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Falsifier / note | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **P-C0a** | Completed pledges produce captured moments at a rate **no higher** than the family's baseline capture rate | If so, the handoff is decorative and Chronicle v1 should not be built around it. Read on the 28-day window against 4.5/wk | **Running, unread** | First public here |\n| **P-C0b** | Shorts linked to a completed time-sacrifice do **not** out-perform ordinary moments on watch-through and re-tip rate | ⚠️ **Instrument defect, disclosed:** completion rate is biased against the hypothesis — longer recordings score lower by construction, so P-C0b would read *confirmed* mechanically. Restricted to views/wk and re-tip rate until repaired | **Running, restricted** | First public here |\n| **P-C0c** | Redeemers who capture cannot articulate the re-tip motive when asked afterward | Tests whether the stated mechanism arises unprompted, which neither original falsifier covered | **Running, unread** | First public here |\n| P-C1 | Chronicle handoff prediction as registered | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-C2 | De-facto-rate tripwire, publish either way | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-C3 | Standing de-facto-rate tripwire, publish either way | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-L1 | Hours co-spent predict relationship warmth better than money sent, messages exchanged, or stated affection | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-L3 | Two arms — silent after pledge vs one offer to reach out — measuring redemption rate and recipient-reported warmth | The motivate/nag boundary made falsifiable | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-M1 | In-person key verification failed for thirty years on the invitation, not the cryptography; a redeemed hour is the first pretext that was never about keys | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption` §4.6) |\n| P-SK1 | Superseded by the not-a-calendar ruling | Kept, not deleted | **Retired** | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter III — Scale\n*Does it survive past the family? The chapter carrying the most weight and the least evidence.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| P-S1 | Strangers become named — name-recall instrument | Unrun | Published (`the-sport-that-says-your-name`) |\n| P-S2 | **The bet** — a friendlier atmosphere follows. *If P-S2 returns null, the slogan is a lie that already shipped* | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S3 | As registered in the paper | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S4 | A circle reaching Hard shows ≥90% correct name-and-pronunciation recall at 1 week | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S5 | **The recess test, publish either way** — within 2 weeks of teacher-led sessions, ≥1 unprompted student-organized circle at recess, and ≥1 mixing children from another classroom | Unrun — gated on Aug 2027 | Published |\n| P-S6 | The caller mechanic requires ≥3 receivers; below that selection is impossible or strictly predictable | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S7 | The founder's classroom acquisition prediction | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S8 | The maintenance/durability prediction — structurally distinct from P-S7's acquisition claim | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S9 | In a circle where every name is known, the favorite-nickname format produces ≥1 unprompted follow-up outside the circle | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S10a | **The guard (non-inferiority):** circles running roll calls meet at least as often as comparable circles that do not. *Must pass* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S10b | A coupled roll call can never cause the first re-meeting after a lapse — which is what the bet is about | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S11a | The handoff — does an IRL circle open a roll call unprompted? *Without it the real/virtual pairing is theoretical* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S11b | The payload — needs a survey or observation instrument, not analytics | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S12 | **The walk-up.** An adult not in a live circle approaches and is admitted; play absorbs them without friction. *Zero code; decides the entire found-circle branch* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S13 | Does the person-pin add anything the return does not? | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S14 | **The manufactured gathering.** The founder declares a return at a place he frequents; ≥1 person not already planning to be there comes and plays. *Needs no app — a text message runs it* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-CS1 | Warm-up extension — median sey minutes rise across a season; stronger instrument, players ask to continue past the coach's stop | Unrun | Published (`circulation-sports`) |\n| P-CS2 | Scoring displacement (a) — in circles with ≥3 sessions, unscored sessions outnumber count-down sessions | Unrun | Published |\n| P-CS2a | **The uncomfortable one** — once Team mode unlocks, circles may overwhelmingly prefer it, because competition is fun | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-CS3 | Participation, framed as a property of the format never of women — the circulatory format sustains mixed-gender play longer | Unrun | Published |\n| P-CS4 | Three generations, re-specified against the pickleball counterexample that already exists | Unrun | Published |\n| **P-CS5** | **Warm-up census** — score mainstream warm-ups against the three circulation properties | **RUN 2026-08-07 → PARTIAL NULL.** Read the full result before any uniqueness claim | Published |\n| P-CS6 | Across a wider census including field data, no reach-guaranteeing format will be found whose receiver order is unpredictable across unbounded repeated play | Unrun | Published |\n| P-SY1 | If designed excellently, asking for a name self-authored is accepted rather than refused — founder pre-registration, observable at n=1, costs nothing | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-SY2 | **The payload** — names captured by self-recording are pronounced correctly at the next meeting more often than names typed or recorded by the collector | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-SY3 | When offered, does a new acquaintance provide a photo, or skip? | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-Q1 | B-Quest pilot prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`need-compiled-questlines`) |\n| P-Q2 | Second B-Quest prediction as registered | Unrun | Published |\n| P-Q3 | Third B-Quest prediction as registered | Unrun | Published |\n| P-BB1 | Food-share wager, publish either way | Unrun | Published (`steward-routed-alms`) |\n| P-BB2 | Revival prediction | Unrun | Published |\n| P-BB3 | Decoupling tripwire | Unrun | Published |\n| P-R1 | The catalyst bet | Unrun | First public here |\n| *(unnumbered)* | Second desk census — naming/sport novelty. Not a registered prediction; recorded because it was run and returned null | **RUN → NULL.** Read before any novelty claim | Internal |\n| P-D1 | Under rotational discovery, a non-trivial share of discovery events resolve to recipients who have **never previously received a re-tip** | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.1) |\n| P-D2 | Among re-tips with an identifiable commercial recipient, the share accruing to **single-location operators** materially exceeds those operators' share of local digital advertising spend in the same market — and the gap widens as AI-generated advertising creative rises | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.2) |\n| P-D3 | If the place-commons volume experiment is enabled, cross-place discovery volume **will not correlate** with neighbourhood median income. *Falsifier and tripwire in one: correlation disables the mechanism regardless of what it is doing for circulation* | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.3) |\n| P-D4 | Adding any rendered per-recipient quantity to the candidate surface — the operator's aura colour included — produces measurable **order effects** in giver choice | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.4) |\n| P-R1a | **Corrects P-R1, which cannot test what it was taken to test.** Holding received-kindness volume constant, contemplative practice raises unprompted noticing/thanking; and the practice effect is compared *against* the received-kindness effect rather than measured alone. **Two factors, read as competing main effects** | Unrun | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter IV — Span\n*Does it survive the giver?*\n\n**This chapter has no predictions.**\n\nThat is reported, not hidden. Its feedback loop exceeds the founder's lifetime, and no instrument has been specified. The boundary is ruled — merit is not conveyed between destinations; *you cannot give to the dead, so you give to the living in their name* — but a ruling is not a test. The chapter is inherited rather than completed.\n\nRegistering the first span-chapter prediction is the largest open item in this program.\n\n---\n\n## Instrumented but outside the core\n\n*These papers name predictions, but the predictions test something other than the direction core. Listed for completeness; they are not evidence for or against the program.*\n\n| ID | Paper | Subject |\n|---|---|---|\n| P-A1, P-A2 | `abhidhamma-executable-process-specification` | Resting-state diagnosticity |\n| P-P1 | `patthana-typed-causation-vocabulary` | Typed causation vocabulary |\n| P-B1, P-B2 | `dedicatory-generation` | Fidelity of restoration; refusal-channel yield |\n\n---\n\n## Withheld\n\n| ID | Reason |\n|---|---|\n| P-GTM1 | Operational channel economics (outreach reply-rate base rates). Withheld under the publication posture; recorded here so the total is honest. |\n\n---\n\n## Verification\n\nEach published paper carries its own proof files. To check that a prediction has not been altered since registration, verify the stating paper against its stored proof rather than trusting this register — this file is a convenience index, and the proofs are the evidence.\n\nNo file in this corpus records its own hash. The proofs are external artifacts; the verification procedure is published with them.\n\n---\n\n## Revision rule\n\nPredictions are added, never removed. A resolved prediction keeps its original wording beside its outcome. A correction is a **new entry citing the one it corrects** — registered wording is never edited in place, because an edit would break the very property this register exists to provide.\n\n---\n\n## Revisions\n\n**2026-09-05 — three added (P-BG1 · P-BG2 · P-BG3), all Chapter I, all pre-data.** They concern a\nrelayed gift instrument whose intermediate holder cannot redeem it (`the-unpaid-relay`). ⚠️ **All\nthree had existed in private notes for a day before this entry, which is exactly the condition this\nregister exists to prevent** — a prediction held privately is not pre-registered in the sense that\nmatters, since the value is a public timestamped commitment made *before* the data. **None has been\nrun; no instrument for any of them is built.**\n\n*Predictions are added, never removed; this log records what each revision added and why, so the count in the Summary can always be reconciled.*\n\n**2026-08-29 — five entries added, and a counting error in the Summary corrected. Total now 71.**\n\n⚠️ **The Summary's own counts were wrong at first publication, and the error is recorded rather than quietly fixed**, because a register that miscounts itself has failed at the one thing it exists to do. The tables carried **66** unique prediction identifiers on 2026-08-27, of which one (`P-GTM1`) is withheld — so the true figures that day were **65 published here, 66 total**, against the **66 / 67** the Summary claimed. The split was also off by one in the other direction: *already carried by a published paper* read 45 where the tables give 46, the difference being the five identifiers in *Instrumented but outside the core*, whose table names its papers in a column of its own rather than in a Provenance column. Every figure in the Summary above is now **counted from the tables** rather than carried forward. ⭐ *An arithmetic check that reconciles — 50 + 20 = 70 — is the property to preserve on every future revision; the previous split summed correctly to a total that was itself one too high, which is how it survived.*\n\n- **P-D1 · P-D2 · P-D3 · P-D4** — Chapter III, arriving with `rotation-over-liveness` (published 2026-08-28, `10.5281/zenodo.22155378`). All four are carried by that paper's own proofs; they are listed here because a register that omits four live predictions from a published paper is exactly the silent drift this document exists to prevent.\n- **P-R1a** — Chapter III, a **correction entered as a new prediction under the revision rule above, not as an edit to P-R1**, whose registered wording stands unchanged.\n\n  *Why the correction was needed:* P-R1 compares practitioners of a contemplative practice against matched non-practitioners on unprompted re-entry into noticing. That measures **practice → noticing**. It was subsequently taken to bear on a stronger claim — that a person's state of mind is *as important as, or more important than, receiving another's kindness* in producing gratitude — and **it cannot rank those two inputs**, because received-kindness volume is unmeasured and is the obvious confound: a practitioner may simply be someone who receives more. P-R1a adds that second factor.\n\n  ⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* The instrument P-R1 depends on has not launched, so this correction is pre-data rather than post-hoc — which is the only condition under which it would have been admissible at all.\n\n**2026-09-02 — one provenance field corrected. No prediction was added, removed or re-worded; the total stands at 71.**\n\n⚠️ **P-SK1's Provenance read *Published*, and no published paper contains it.** The identifier was raised in working memory as a specific-vs-container scheduling arm, went moot under the not-a-calendar ruling, and was retired before it ever reached a paper — so its true provenance is **First public here**, like every other prediction whose first public timestamp is this register. Corrected rather than left standing, and recorded rather than quietly fixed, on the precedent set by the entry above.\n\n*How it was found:* the corpus index at `corpus.333.eco` began serving this register on 2026-09-02, and its builder resolves every prediction to the paper said to state it, then looks for the identifier in that paper's own text. Sixty-six of sixty-seven attributions verified; this one did not, and the builder reports the miss rather than filling the field in.\n\n⚠️ **The Summary moves with it, and the reconciliation is preserved:** *already carried by a published paper* 50 → **49**, *receiving first public timestamp here* 20 → **21**. The property the entry above names still holds — **49 + 21 = 70** published here, plus the one withheld entry, is **71**.\n\n⭐ *A bare \"Published\" in this column inherits the paper named in the row above it. That convention is correct for the sixteen other rows using it, and it is how a retired memory-only prediction came to be attributed to a paper that had never heard of it: the shorthand has no way to say \"none\".*",
+      "text": "## What this is\n\nSeventy pre-registered predictions arising from the research program stated in [`which-way-value-moves`](which-way-value-moves.md). One further prediction is withheld from publication (operational channel economics); its existence is recorded here so the count is honest, bringing the true total to **seventy-one**.\n\nThis is a living document and the count rises. It opened at sixty-seven on 2026-08-27; see **Revisions** at the foot for what has been added since, and read the count in the Summary table rather than any sentence that repeats it elsewhere.\n\n**Status vocabulary.** *Unrun* — registered, no observation attempted. *Running* — instrument live, data accumulating, not yet read. *Resolved* — read against its falsifier. *Contradicted* — the data went against it. *Retired* — superseded by a ruling that made it moot; kept, never deleted.\n\n**Provenance.** *Published* — the prediction already appears in a corpus paper carrying that paper's OpenTimestamps and RFC 3161 proofs. *First public here* — the prediction existed only in internal records until this document; its first external timestamp is this file's.\n\n**Reading rule.** Predictions marked *running* must not be read early, and participants must not be prompted toward the predicted behavior. A prompt voids the test.\n\n---\n\n## Summary\n\n| | Count |\n|---|---|\n| Total registered | **86** |\n| Published here | 85 |\n| Withheld (operational) | 1 |\n| Already carried by a published paper | 49 |\n| Memory-only at first publication (2026-08-27) | 22 (21 published here + 1 withheld) |\n| Receiving first public timestamp here | 36 |\n| **Run** | **2** (both desk censuses) |\n| **Field tests run** | **0** — six pilot-scale predictions are *Running* with a baseline read; none has resolved |\n| Running (instrument live; unread, restricted or baseline only) | 9 |\n| Contradicted | 1 |\n| Retired | 2 |\n\n---\n\n## Core-level\n\n*If one of these fails, the program ends rather than adjusts.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Falsifier | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **P-GO1** | A system forbidding backward return produces more onward giving per unit received than an otherwise-identical permissive system | Equal or greater onward giving under the permissive condition → the constraint is aesthetic, not mechanical | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-K1** | As external subsidy for a kind act approaches zero, the rate of the act does not approach zero | Kindness rate tracks subsidy proportionally → the behavior was priced throughout | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-L2** | Witnessed presence generates more downstream giving than unwitnessed presence of equal duration | Equal downstream gratitude when unwitnessed → the chronicle is decorative and the institution's core claim is wrong | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption` §10) |\n| **P-R2** | Product-dependence begins to fall after the inflection | Dependence never falls → the raft is a boat | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-B3** | The proportion of creators electing to dedicate their share does not decline over time | Dedication collapses once money is visible → the offering frame is eroding | Unrun | Published (`dedicatory-generation`) |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter I — Capacity\n*Does receiving create giving? If not, forward-only motion is depletion, not circulation.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| P-IA1 | The receiver is legible as benefactor, not need — the sitter supplies a merit-field rather than displaying a lack | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-IA2 | Second inverted-alms prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-IA3 | Third inverted-alms prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`inverted-alms-round`) |\n| P-G1 | Once the app manufactures obligation, a return visit no longer distinguishes gratitude practice from guilt — publish either way | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-G2 | Second B-Grace prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-G3 | The meal-anchor outperforms gamification; gamifying at launch makes this untestable | Unrun | Published (`sacrifice-witness-without-discharge`) |\n| P-W1 | Users with higher thing-capture frequency show higher rates of the primed downstream behavior — registered pre-build | Unrun | Published (`appreciation-as-world-building`) |\n| P-E1 | First graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-E2 | Second graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-E3 | Third graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-game-that-graduates-you`) |\n| P-M2 | Matched-stakes prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-wager-that-isnt`) |\n| P-M3 | Patron-pot prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`the-wager-that-isnt`) |\n| — | **Kids-as-triggers** — children are the primary triggers of household self-thanking | **Contradicted** (parents self-thanked more; n=1, confounded, not hardened) | Published (`kids-as-triggers-self-thanking`) |\n| **P-BG1** | A shorter re-address window on a relayed gift **increases issuances and decreases COMPLETED placements**. *Null: completions hold or rise as the window shortens — the tighter clock is free.* ⚠️ Unanswerable unless `issued · passed · lapsed · re-issued` are logged from the first instrument | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-BG2** | Sustained pass-on is **higher for an ANONYMOUS relayed gift than a VISIBLE one**, over a window long enough for the effect to appear. *Null: rates match or visible exceeds anonymous — the anonymity is doctrinal only, and the visible relay should be deprecated for minors.* Rests on the developmental finding that adult-directed giving underperforms child-led | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-BG3** | Within a bounded family, **VISIBLE gifts produce more give-BACK to the giver within 30 days; ANONYMOUS gifts produce more give-FORWARD to third parties.** *Null: rates match, or anonymous produces more give-back — the obligation mechanism is not operating.* ⛔ **Analyse PEER and ADULT-TO-CHILD strata separately** — the effect is expected between peers and weak or absent in adult-to-child care, and pooling would produce a false negative. ⚠️ Tests the **mechanism**, not the atmosphere claim it was offered to support | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-PL1** | **Durability** — the founding family's 28-day capture rate returns to the June 2026 baseline of **4.5 moments/week** at some monthly read before 2027-01-01. *Falsifier: no read reaches it → the June inflection was novelty, not a level.* Window and baseline are the ones ratified for P-C0a. **Read 1 of 3 (2026-09-05): 2.25/wk** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL4** | **Pass-forward** — more than **half** of re-tip value received (each document's own recorded USD cents) is re-given by its recipient within 30 days: Σ min(received, given) / Σ received over a 90-day receipt window that closes 30 days before the read. *Falsifier: half or less → received value is income, not a licence to give; the re-patronage conduit is anecdote.* The give-forward atom made numeric. **Read 1 of 3: 43%** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL5** | **Inelasticity — the pilot-scale arm of P-K1.** Giving persists where the AI reward is zero: the share of givers with zero AI reward in a month does not fall as subsidy is withdrawn. ⚠️ **Not scorable** until the taper (scheduled Q2 2027, not to be pulled forward) and the F3QR confound registered 2026-09-04 against P-K1 are resolved; reported each read (2026-09: 86% of givers received no AI reward that month) | Unrun (instrument gated) | First public here |\n| **P-PL6** | The top three recipients of re-tip value in the founding family hold **under half** of value received in any 28-day window with five or more recipients. ⛔ **Retired in the revision that registered it: it fails by arithmetic** — with five recipients an even spread already puts the top three at 60%, so it could not pass until seven had received. Superseded by P-PL6a; kept, not deleted | **Retired** | First public here |\n| **P-PL6a** | **Corrects P-PL6.** *Accumulates to no one* — in the founding family, the top three recipients of re-tip value in a 28-day window hold **less than 1.5× their share under a perfectly even spread** (share ÷ min(1, 3/n)), once eight or more people have received. *Falsifier: 1.5× or more → value pools around a few; the jubilee and the Re-Tip Jar are not doing their structural work.* The same property freed of n. **Read 1 of 3: 1.85× (8 recipients)** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL7** | **Anonymity** — anonymous givers reach more distinct recipients than visible givers (the demand-side thesis: the capacity to give to loved ones, anonymously; the pilot-scale sibling of P-BG2). ⚠️ **No variance:** 827 of 830 re-tips carry the anonymous flag, so the field records a default, not a choice. Unscorable until the product offers a real choice | Unrun (no variance) | First public here |\n| **P-PL8** | **Kids as triggers, de-confounded** — enters as a **new prediction citing the Contradicted finding above**, under the revision rule: within the founding family, the younger generation captures more self-thanks per active member than the older **once device access is controlled for**. The first result was contradicted at n=1 and ruled not to be hardened; this names the confound and the instrument (the device join from the error stream, plus the interview leg) | Unrun (instrument not built) | First public here |\n| **P-PL9** | **Diaspora corridor, dignity direction** — low-income→high-income flows (KHR sender to USD recipient, currency as an income proxy) are at least **10%** of money-carrying re-tips in the trailing 90 days, once twenty or more flows exist. *Falsifier: under 10% → patronage is a corridor, not a mesh; the low-income members are recipients only.* June 2026 baseline 9.6%. **Read 1 of 3: 6.0% of 712** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter II — Substrate\n*Does an hour behave like a dollar? If not, the invariance claim is false.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Falsifier / note | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| **P-C0a** | Completed pledges produce captured moments at a rate **no higher** than the family's baseline capture rate | If so, the handoff is decorative and Chronicle v1 should not be built around it. Read on the 28-day window against 4.5/wk | **Running, unread** | First public here |\n| **P-C0b** | Shorts linked to a completed time-sacrifice do **not** out-perform ordinary moments on watch-through and re-tip rate | ⚠️ **Instrument defect, disclosed:** completion rate is biased against the hypothesis — longer recordings score lower by construction, so P-C0b would read *confirmed* mechanically. Restricted to views/wk and re-tip rate until repaired. ✅ *Repaired 2026-09-05: views rows written from that date carry real watch depth (`schemaVersion` 2); earlier rows are never pooled with them, so the restriction lifts only for post-repair rows* | **Running, restricted** | First public here |\n| **P-C0c** | Redeemers who capture cannot articulate the re-tip motive when asked afterward | Tests whether the stated mechanism arises unprompted, which neither original falsifier covered | **Running, unread** | First public here |\n| P-C1 | Chronicle handoff prediction as registered | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-C2 | De-facto-rate tripwire, publish either way | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-C3 | Standing de-facto-rate tripwire, publish either way | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-L1 | Hours co-spent predict relationship warmth better than money sent, messages exchanged, or stated affection | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-L3 | Two arms — silent after pledge vs one offer to reach out — measuring redemption rate and recipient-reported warmth | The motivate/nag boundary made falsifiable | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption`) |\n| P-M1 | In-person key verification failed for thirty years on the invitation, not the cryptography; a redeemed hour is the first pretext that was never about keys | — | Unrun | Published (`co-presence-gated-redemption` §4.6) |\n| P-SK1 | Superseded by the not-a-calendar ruling | Kept, not deleted | **Retired** | First public here |\n| **P-PL10** | **Presence, not content** — when Chronicle ships, captures and views move **together** (a presence effect), not apart (a content effect) | The pilot-scale reading of the C0 finding that captures and views collapsed in parallel. Instrument: `presenceDyads`, pairs active in both directions inside 28 days (founding 0, test 0 on 2026-09-05). ⛔ No Chronicle data exists; the C0 evaluation is written from the pre-registration when data first arrives, never before, and no prompt may move it | Unrun (awaits Chronicle) | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter III — Scale\n*Does it survive past the family? The chapter carrying the most weight and the least evidence.*\n\n| ID | Prediction | Status | Provenance |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| P-S1 | Strangers become named — name-recall instrument | Unrun | Published (`the-sport-that-says-your-name`) |\n| P-S2 | **The bet** — a friendlier atmosphere follows. *If P-S2 returns null, the slogan is a lie that already shipped* | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S3 | As registered in the paper | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S4 | A circle reaching Hard shows ≥90% correct name-and-pronunciation recall at 1 week | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S5 | **The recess test, publish either way** — within 2 weeks of teacher-led sessions, ≥1 unprompted student-organized circle at recess, and ≥1 mixing children from another classroom | Unrun — gated on Aug 2027 | Published |\n| P-S6 | The caller mechanic requires ≥3 receivers; below that selection is impossible or strictly predictable | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S7 | The founder's classroom acquisition prediction | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S8 | The maintenance/durability prediction — structurally distinct from P-S7's acquisition claim | Unrun | Published |\n| P-S9 | In a circle where every name is known, the favorite-nickname format produces ≥1 unprompted follow-up outside the circle | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S10a | **The guard (non-inferiority):** circles running roll calls meet at least as often as comparable circles that do not. *Must pass* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S10b | A coupled roll call can never cause the first re-meeting after a lapse — which is what the bet is about | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S11a | The handoff — does an IRL circle open a roll call unprompted? *Without it the real/virtual pairing is theoretical* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S11b | The payload — needs a survey or observation instrument, not analytics | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S12 | **The walk-up.** An adult not in a live circle approaches and is admitted; play absorbs them without friction. *Zero code; decides the entire found-circle branch* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S13 | Does the person-pin add anything the return does not? | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-S14 | **The manufactured gathering.** The founder declares a return at a place he frequents; ≥1 person not already planning to be there comes and plays. *Needs no app — a text message runs it* | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-CS1 | Warm-up extension — median sey minutes rise across a season; stronger instrument, players ask to continue past the coach's stop | Unrun | Published (`circulation-sports`) |\n| P-CS2 | Scoring displacement (a) — in circles with ≥3 sessions, unscored sessions outnumber count-down sessions | Unrun | Published |\n| P-CS2a | **The uncomfortable one** — once Team mode unlocks, circles may overwhelmingly prefer it, because competition is fun | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-CS3 | Participation, framed as a property of the format never of women — the circulatory format sustains mixed-gender play longer | Unrun | Published |\n| P-CS4 | Three generations, re-specified against the pickleball counterexample that already exists | Unrun | Published |\n| **P-CS5** | **Warm-up census** — score mainstream warm-ups against the three circulation properties | **RUN 2026-08-07 → PARTIAL NULL.** Read the full result before any uniqueness claim | Published |\n| P-CS6 | Across a wider census including field data, no reach-guaranteeing format will be found whose receiver order is unpredictable across unbounded repeated play | Unrun | Published |\n| P-SY1 | If designed excellently, asking for a name self-authored is accepted rather than refused — founder pre-registration, observable at n=1, costs nothing | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-SY2 | **The payload** — names captured by self-recording are pronounced correctly at the next meeting more often than names typed or recorded by the collector | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-SY3 | When offered, does a new acquaintance provide a photo, or skip? | Unrun | First public here |\n| P-Q1 | B-Quest pilot prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (`need-compiled-questlines`) |\n| P-Q2 | Second B-Quest prediction as registered | Unrun | Published |\n| P-Q3 | Third B-Quest prediction as registered | Unrun | Published |\n| P-BB1 | Food-share wager, publish either way | Unrun | Published (`steward-routed-alms`) |\n| P-BB2 | Revival prediction | Unrun | Published |\n| P-BB3 | Decoupling tripwire | Unrun | Published |\n| P-R1 | The catalyst bet | Unrun | First public here |\n| *(unnumbered)* | Second desk census — naming/sport novelty. Not a registered prediction; recorded because it was run and returned null | **RUN → NULL.** Read before any novelty claim | Internal |\n| P-D1 | Under rotational discovery, a non-trivial share of discovery events resolve to recipients who have **never previously received a re-tip** | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.1) |\n| P-D2 | Among re-tips with an identifiable commercial recipient, the share accruing to **single-location operators** materially exceeds those operators' share of local digital advertising spend in the same market — and the gap widens as AI-generated advertising creative rises | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.2) |\n| P-D3 | If the place-commons volume experiment is enabled, cross-place discovery volume **will not correlate** with neighbourhood median income. *Falsifier and tripwire in one: correlation disables the mechanism regardless of what it is doing for circulation* | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.3) |\n| P-D4 | Adding any rendered per-recipient quantity to the candidate surface — the operator's aura colour included — produces measurable **order effects** in giver choice | Unrun | Published (`rotation-over-liveness` §11.4) |\n| P-R1a | **Corrects P-R1, which cannot test what it was taken to test.** Holding received-kindness volume constant, contemplative practice raises unprompted noticing/thanking; and the practice effect is compared *against* the received-kindness effect rather than measured alone. **Two factors, read as competing main effects** | Unrun | First public here |\n| **P-PL2** | **Test-cohort retention** — of outsiders (the test bank) with ≥90 days of tenure, at least **40%** are active in two or more distinct ISO weeks; scored once ten outsiders have 90 days of tenure. *Falsifier: under 40% → strangers try it and leave; the family-obligation confound was doing the work.* The second pilot report's first decisive metric. **Read 1 of 3: 2 of 4 eligible (50%), sample under the minimum** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL3** | **Graduation** — an outsider-founded bank stays **open for 60 days with three or more members active** in the trailing 28 days, by 2027-08-01 (this chapter's gate). *Falsifier: none by the gate → the product spreads as a funnel into the test bank, never as a branching network.* The second pilot report's second decisive metric. **Read 1 of 3: 0 of 11 candidates, all closed** | **Running** (baseline read) | First public here |\n| **P-PL11** | **Replication** — the first graduated bank's first 90 days show ≥3 members active in ≥2 ISO weeks each, pass-forward ≥ 0.5 and reach ≥ 0.6: the founding family's pattern without the founder. The only cure for n=1. Read by re-segmenting the monthly report on that bank once P-PL3 resolves | Unrun (gated on P-PL3) | First public here |\n\n---\n\n## Chapter IV — Span\n*Does it survive the giver?*\n\n**This chapter has no predictions.**\n\nThat is reported, not hidden. Its feedback loop exceeds the founder's lifetime, and no instrument has been specified. The boundary is ruled — merit is not conveyed between destinations; *you cannot give to the dead, so you give to the living in their name* — but a ruling is not a test. The chapter is inherited rather than completed.\n\nRegistering the first span-chapter prediction is the largest open item in this program.\n\n---\n\n## Instrumented but outside the core\n\n*These papers name predictions, but the predictions test something other than the direction core. Listed for completeness; they are not evidence for or against the program.*\n\n| ID | Paper | Subject |\n|---|---|---|\n| P-A1, P-A2 | `abhidhamma-executable-process-specification` | Resting-state diagnosticity |\n| P-P1 | `patthana-typed-causation-vocabulary` | Typed causation vocabulary |\n| P-B1, P-B2 | `dedicatory-generation` | Fidelity of restoration; refusal-channel yield |\n\n---\n\n## Withheld\n\n| ID | Reason |\n|---|---|\n| P-GTM1 | Operational channel economics (outreach reply-rate base rates). Withheld under the publication posture; recorded here so the total is honest. |\n\n---\n\n## Verification\n\nEach published paper carries its own proof files. To check that a prediction has not been altered since registration, verify the stating paper against its stored proof rather than trusting this register — this file is a convenience index, and the proofs are the evidence.\n\nNo file in this corpus records its own hash. The proofs are external artifacts; the verification procedure is published with them.\n\n---\n\n## Revision rule\n\nPredictions are added, never removed. A resolved prediction keeps its original wording beside its outcome. A correction is a **new entry citing the one it corrects** — registered wording is never edited in place, because an edit would break the very property this register exists to provide.\n\n---\n\n## Revisions\n\n**2026-09-05 — twelve added (P-PL1 … P-PL11 and P-PL6a): the first pilot-scale registrations, scored by machine. Total now 86.**\n\nThese are the Treasury pilot's own predictions. They are registered in the app repository (`thank.heartbank.org`, `.claude/skills/pilot/predictions.json`) and **scored mechanically by the monthly read** from each raw snapshot: every entry carries a metric path, a comparator, a threshold and, where it applies, a deadline and a minimum sample; the reading prints `pass`, `fail`, `not-yet`, `early` or `blocked` and appends a summary without identifiers to a ledger. ⭐ **A per-read prediction (one with no deadline) draws no verdict until three monthly readings exist** — it reads `early`, value shown, direction noted — because one read cannot tell a level from a month (founder, 2026-09-05). Thresholds were proposed by the substrate and ratified by the founder the same day; **a later change is a new entry with `supersedes`, and the evaluator retires the old one without an edit** — the revision rule below, made a property of the file.\n\n⚠️ **Corrected the same day, and recorded rather than quietly fixed:** the twelve identifiers were first published as `PP-1 … PP-11` and `PP-6a`, which are not `P-…` tokens. The corpus index builder enforces this register's identifier grammar and, reading that version, counted 74 identifiers against the 86 the Summary states and reported the register as **not reconciling** — the check did its job. They are renamed **`P-PL1 … P-PL11` and `P-PL6a`** (*PL* for the pilot); **no wording, threshold, window or status changed.** The first deposit of this revision (`10.5281/zenodo.22366972`) carries the `PP-` form and is superseded by the version carrying this paragraph.\n\n**The baseline read, 2026-09-05, read 1 of 3** — recorded here so a reader can see the thresholds were not set to pass: three of the six live entries sit below threshold on the day they were registered.\n\n| ID | Metric | Threshold | Read 1 |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| P-PL1 | founding capture rate, 28-day window | ≥ 4.5/wk by 2027-01-01 | 2.25/wk |\n| P-PL2 | test-cohort retention, ≥90-day tenure | ≥ 40% (n ≥ 10) | 50% of 4 |\n| P-PL3 | graduated banks | ≥ 1 by 2027-08-01 | 0 of 11 candidates |\n| P-PL4 | pass-forward of received value | > 50% | 43% |\n| P-PL6a | top-3 share of value received ÷ even spread | < 1.5× (n ≥ 8) | 1.85× |\n| P-PL9 | low→high share of money-carrying re-tips | ≥ 10% (n ≥ 20) | 6.0% of 712 |\n\n⚠️ **P-PL6 is registered and retired in the same revision.** It asked the top three recipients to hold under half of re-tip value received, with a five-recipient minimum — and with five recipients an even spread already puts the top three at 60%, so it could not pass until seven had received. **It failed by arithmetic, not behaviour.** The counterexample hunt found it before the first public timestamp; **P-PL6a** is the same property freed of n. It is listed rather than dropped because the private file carries it and the founder ratified it, and a register that quietly loses an entry has failed at the one thing it exists to do.\n\nFive entries are **unrun because their instrument does not exist or is gated**, and are never scored until it does: P-PL5 (the pilot-scale arm of P-K1, gated on the Q2 2027 taper and on the F3QR confound registered 2026-09-04), P-PL7 (no variance: 827 of 830 re-tips carry the anonymous flag), P-PL8 (a de-confounded re-run of the Contradicted kids-as-triggers finding, entered as a new prediction under the revision rule), P-PL10 (awaits Chronicle data — the pilot-scale reading of C0), P-PL11 (gated on P-PL3).\n\nAlso in this revision: P-C0b's note records that the watch-through instrument was **repaired on 2026-09-05** — rows written from that date carry real watch depth, and are never pooled with the earlier rows the restriction was written for. The registered wording is untouched.\n\n**Field tests run stays at 0.** A run is a read against a falsifier; a baseline read is not one. The Summary moves: *published here* 73 → **85**, *first public timestamp here* 24 → **36**, *retired* 1 → **2**, and the reconciliation holds — **49 + 36 = 85** published here, plus the one withheld, is **86**.\n\n**2026-09-05 — three added (P-BG1 · P-BG2 · P-BG3), all Chapter I, all pre-data.** They concern a\nrelayed gift instrument whose intermediate holder cannot redeem it (`the-unpaid-relay`). ⚠️ **All\nthree had existed in private notes for a day before this entry, which is exactly the condition this\nregister exists to prevent** — a prediction held privately is not pre-registered in the sense that\nmatters, since the value is a public timestamped commitment made *before* the data. **None has been\nrun; no instrument for any of them is built.**\n\n*Predictions are added, never removed; this log records what each revision added and why, so the count in the Summary can always be reconciled.*\n\n**2026-08-29 — five entries added, and a counting error in the Summary corrected. Total now 71.**\n\n⚠️ **The Summary's own counts were wrong at first publication, and the error is recorded rather than quietly fixed**, because a register that miscounts itself has failed at the one thing it exists to do. The tables carried **66** unique prediction identifiers on 2026-08-27, of which one (`P-GTM1`) is withheld — so the true figures that day were **65 published here, 66 total**, against the **66 / 67** the Summary claimed. The split was also off by one in the other direction: *already carried by a published paper* read 45 where the tables give 46, the difference being the five identifiers in *Instrumented but outside the core*, whose table names its papers in a column of its own rather than in a Provenance column. Every figure in the Summary above is now **counted from the tables** rather than carried forward. ⭐ *An arithmetic check that reconciles — 50 + 20 = 70 — is the property to preserve on every future revision; the previous split summed correctly to a total that was itself one too high, which is how it survived.*\n\n- **P-D1 · P-D2 · P-D3 · P-D4** — Chapter III, arriving with `rotation-over-liveness` (published 2026-08-28, `10.5281/zenodo.22155378`). All four are carried by that paper's own proofs; they are listed here because a register that omits four live predictions from a published paper is exactly the silent drift this document exists to prevent.\n- **P-R1a** — Chapter III, a **correction entered as a new prediction under the revision rule above, not as an edit to P-R1**, whose registered wording stands unchanged.\n\n  *Why the correction was needed:* P-R1 compares practitioners of a contemplative practice against matched non-practitioners on unprompted re-entry into noticing. That measures **practice → noticing**. It was subsequently taken to bear on a stronger claim — that a person's state of mind is *as important as, or more important than, receiving another's kindness* in producing gratitude — and **it cannot rank those two inputs**, because received-kindness volume is unmeasured and is the obvious confound: a practitioner may simply be someone who receives more. P-R1a adds that second factor.\n\n  ⚠️ *Entered before any observation exists.* The instrument P-R1 depends on has not launched, so this correction is pre-data rather than post-hoc — which is the only condition under which it would have been admissible at all.\n\n**2026-09-02 — one provenance field corrected. No prediction was added, removed or re-worded; the total stands at 71.**\n\n⚠️ **P-SK1's Provenance read *Published*, and no published paper contains it.** The identifier was raised in working memory as a specific-vs-container scheduling arm, went moot under the not-a-calendar ruling, and was retired before it ever reached a paper — so its true provenance is **First public here**, like every other prediction whose first public timestamp is this register. Corrected rather than left standing, and recorded rather than quietly fixed, on the precedent set by the entry above.\n\n*How it was found:* the corpus index at `corpus.333.eco` began serving this register on 2026-09-02, and its builder resolves every prediction to the paper said to state it, then looks for the identifier in that paper's own text. Sixty-six of sixty-seven attributions verified; this one did not, and the builder reports the miss rather than filling the field in.\n\n⚠️ **The Summary moves with it, and the reconciliation is preserved:** *already carried by a published paper* 50 → **49**, *receiving first public timestamp here* 20 → **21**. The property the entry above names still holds — **49 + 21 = 70** published here, plus the one withheld entry, is **71**.\n\n⭐ *A bare \"Published\" in this column inherits the paper named in the row above it. That convention is correct for the sixteen other rows using it, and it is how a retired memory-only prediction came to be attributed to a paper that had never heard of it: the shorthand has no way to say \"none\".*",
       "provenance": {
-        "sha256": "1c11912840a859922a8e376068a4174bd95f9645150061f76ae27afb36a221e7",
-        "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.22325867",
+        "sha256": "9b3f7e1ae01ea1b94d2ae5911279d4497603c06958c8eff392f82f1ee1eb0eea",
+        "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.22367750",
         "concept_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.22132689",
-        "zenodo_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/22325867",
-        "deposited_sha256": "1c11912840a859922a8e376068a4174bd95f9645150061f76ae27afb36a221e7",
+        "zenodo_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/22367750",
+        "deposited_sha256": "9b3f7e1ae01ea1b94d2ae5911279d4497603c06958c8eff392f82f1ee1eb0eea",
         "deposited_matches_current": true,
         "opentimestamps": true,
         "source_url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/thonly/publications/main/program/prediction-register.md",
@@ -5246,23 +5246,24 @@
     "revision_rule": "Predictions are added, never removed. A resolved prediction keeps its original wording beside its outcome. A correction is a **new entry citing the one it corrects** — registered wording is never edited in place, because an edit would break the very property this register exists to provide.",
     "verification": "Each published paper carries its own proof files. To check that a prediction has not been altered since registration, verify the stating paper against its stored proof rather than trusting this register — this file is a convenience index, and the proofs are the evidence.\n\nNo file in this corpus records its own hash. The proofs are external artifacts; the verification procedure is published with them.",
     "counts": {
-      "total_registered": "74",
-      "published_here": "73",
+      "total_registered": "86",
+      "published_here": "85",
       "withheld_operational": "1",
       "already_carried_by_a_published_paper": "49",
       "memory_only_at_first_publication_2026_08_27": "22 (21 published here + 1 withheld)",
-      "receiving_first_public_timestamp_here": "24",
+      "receiving_first_public_timestamp_here": "36",
       "run": "**2** (both desk censuses)",
-      "field_tests_run": "0",
+      "field_tests_run": "**0** — six pilot-scale predictions are *Running* with a baseline read; none has resolved",
+      "running_instrument_live_unread_restricted_or_baseline_only": "9",
       "contradicted": "1",
-      "retired": "1"
+      "retired": "2"
     },
     "reconciliation": {
-      "stated_total_registered": 74,
-      "counted_from_tables": 74,
+      "stated_total_registered": 86,
+      "counted_from_tables": 86,
       "reconciles": true,
       "counted_as": {
-        "core_and_chapters": 68,
+        "core_and_chapters": 80,
         "instrumented_outside_core": 5,
         "withheld": 1,
         "rows_without_an_identifier": 2
@@ -5277,17 +5278,17 @@
       {
         "name": "Chapter I — Capacity",
         "gloss": "Does receiving create giving? If not, forward-only motion is depletion, not circulation.",
-        "predictions": 16
+        "predictions": 24
       },
       {
         "name": "Chapter II — Substrate",
         "gloss": "Does an hour behave like a dollar? If not, the invariance claim is false.",
-        "predictions": 10
+        "predictions": 11
       },
       {
         "name": "Chapter III — Scale",
         "gloss": "Does it survive past the family? The chapter carrying the most weight and the least evidence.",
-        "predictions": 39
+        "predictions": 42
       },
       {
         "name": "Chapter IV — Span",
@@ -5296,7 +5297,7 @@
         "note": "This chapter has no predictions. That is reported, not hidden. Its feedback loop exceeds the founder's lifetime, and no instrument has been specified. The boundary is ruled — merit is not conveyed between destinations; *you cannot give to the dead, so you give to the living in their name* — but a ruling is not a test. The chapter is inherited rather than completed. Registering the first span-chapter prediction is the largest open item in this program."
       }
     ],
-    "prediction_count": 70,
+    "prediction_count": 82,
     "predictions": [
       {
         "id": "P-GO1",
@@ -5655,6 +5656,142 @@
         },
         "provenance_text": "First public here"
       },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL1",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter I — Capacity",
+        "prediction": "**Durability** — the founding family's 28-day capture rate returns to the June 2026 baseline of **4.5 moments/week** at some monthly read before 2027-01-01. *Falsifier: no read reaches it → the June inflection was novelty, not a level.* Window and baseline are the ones ratified for P-C0a. **Read 1 of 3 (2026-09-05): 2.25/wk**",
+        "falsifier": null,
+        "status": "**Running** (baseline read)",
+        "state": "running",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL4",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter I — Capacity",
+        "prediction": "**Pass-forward** — more than **half** of re-tip value received (each document's own recorded USD cents) is re-given by its recipient within 30 days: Σ min(received, given) / Σ received over a 90-day receipt window that closes 30 days before the read. *Falsifier: half or less → received value is income, not a licence to give; the re-patronage conduit is anecdote.* The give-forward atom made numeric. **Read 1 of 3: 43%**",
+        "falsifier": null,
+        "status": "**Running** (baseline read)",
+        "state": "running",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL5",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter I — Capacity",
+        "prediction": "**Inelasticity — the pilot-scale arm of P-K1.** Giving persists where the AI reward is zero: the share of givers with zero AI reward in a month does not fall as subsidy is withdrawn. ⚠️ **Not scorable** until the taper (scheduled Q2 2027, not to be pulled forward) and the F3QR confound registered 2026-09-04 against P-K1 are resolved; reported each read (2026-09: 86% of givers received no AI reward that month)",
+        "falsifier": null,
+        "status": "Unrun (instrument gated)",
+        "state": "unrun",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL6",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter I — Capacity",
+        "prediction": "The top three recipients of re-tip value in the founding family hold **under half** of value received in any 28-day window with five or more recipients. ⛔ **Retired in the revision that registered it: it fails by arithmetic** — with five recipients an even spread already puts the top three at 60%, so it could not pass until seven had received. Superseded by P-PL6a; kept, not deleted",
+        "falsifier": null,
+        "status": "**Retired**",
+        "state": "retired",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL6a",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter I — Capacity",
+        "prediction": "**Corrects P-PL6.** *Accumulates to no one* — in the founding family, the top three recipients of re-tip value in a 28-day window hold **less than 1.5× their share under a perfectly even spread** (share ÷ min(1, 3/n)), once eight or more people have received. *Falsifier: 1.5× or more → value pools around a few; the jubilee and the Re-Tip Jar are not doing their structural work.* The same property freed of n. **Read 1 of 3: 1.85× (8 recipients)**",
+        "falsifier": null,
+        "status": "**Running** (baseline read)",
+        "state": "running",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL7",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter I — Capacity",
+        "prediction": "**Anonymity** — anonymous givers reach more distinct recipients than visible givers (the demand-side thesis: the capacity to give to loved ones, anonymously; the pilot-scale sibling of P-BG2). ⚠️ **No variance:** 827 of 830 re-tips carry the anonymous flag, so the field records a default, not a choice. Unscorable until the product offers a real choice",
+        "falsifier": null,
+        "status": "Unrun (no variance)",
+        "state": "unrun",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL8",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter I — Capacity",
+        "prediction": "**Kids as triggers, de-confounded** — enters as a **new prediction citing the Contradicted finding above**, under the revision rule: within the founding family, the younger generation captures more self-thanks per active member than the older **once device access is controlled for**. The first result was contradicted at n=1 and ruled not to be hardened; this names the confound and the instrument (the device join from the error stream, plus the interview leg)",
+        "falsifier": null,
+        "status": "Unrun (instrument not built)",
+        "state": "unrun",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL9",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter I — Capacity",
+        "prediction": "**Diaspora corridor, dignity direction** — low-income→high-income flows (KHR sender to USD recipient, currency as an income proxy) are at least **10%** of money-carrying re-tips in the trailing 90 days, once twenty or more flows exist. *Falsifier: under 10% → patronage is a corridor, not a mesh; the low-income members are recipients only.* June 2026 baseline 9.6%. **Read 1 of 3: 6.0% of 712**",
+        "falsifier": null,
+        "status": "**Running** (baseline read)",
+        "state": "running",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
       {
         "id": "P-C0a",
         "registered": true,
@@ -5678,7 +5815,7 @@
         "level": "chapter",
         "chapter": "Chapter II — Substrate",
         "prediction": "Shorts linked to a completed time-sacrifice do **not** out-perform ordinary moments on watch-through and re-tip rate",
-        "falsifier": "⚠️ **Instrument defect, disclosed:** completion rate is biased against the hypothesis — longer recordings score lower by construction, so P-C0b would read *confirmed* mechanically. Restricted to views/wk and re-tip rate until repaired",
+        "falsifier": "⚠️ **Instrument defect, disclosed:** completion rate is biased against the hypothesis — longer recordings score lower by construction, so P-C0b would read *confirmed* mechanically. Restricted to views/wk and re-tip rate until repaired. ✅ *Repaired 2026-09-05: views rows written from that date carry real watch depth (`schemaVersion` 2); earlier rows are never pooled with them, so the restriction lifts only for post-repair rows*",
         "status": "**Running, restricted**",
         "state": "running",
         "stating_paper": {
@@ -5825,6 +5962,23 @@
         },
         "provenance_text": "First public here"
       },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL10",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter II — Substrate",
+        "prediction": "**Presence, not content** — when Chronicle ships, captures and views move **together** (a presence effect), not apart (a content effect)",
+        "falsifier": "The pilot-scale reading of the C0 finding that captures and views collapsed in parallel. Instrument: `presenceDyads`, pairs active in both directions inside 28 days (founding 0, test 0 on 2026-09-05). ⛔ No Chronicle data exists; the C0 evaluation is written from the pre-registration when data first arrives, never before, and no prompt may move it",
+        "status": "Unrun (awaits Chronicle)",
+        "state": "unrun",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
       {
         "id": "P-S1",
         "registered": true,
@@ -6487,6 +6641,57 @@
           "verified_in_paper": null
         },
         "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL2",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter III — Scale",
+        "prediction": "**Test-cohort retention** — of outsiders (the test bank) with ≥90 days of tenure, at least **40%** are active in two or more distinct ISO weeks; scored once ten outsiders have 90 days of tenure. *Falsifier: under 40% → strangers try it and leave; the family-obligation confound was doing the work.* The second pilot report's first decisive metric. **Read 1 of 3: 2 of 4 eligible (50%), sample under the minimum**",
+        "falsifier": null,
+        "status": "**Running** (baseline read)",
+        "state": "running",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL3",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter III — Scale",
+        "prediction": "**Graduation** — an outsider-founded bank stays **open for 60 days with three or more members active** in the trailing 28 days, by 2027-08-01 (this chapter's gate). *Falsifier: none by the gate → the product spreads as a funnel into the test bank, never as a branching network.* The second pilot report's second decisive metric. **Read 1 of 3: 0 of 11 candidates, all closed**",
+        "falsifier": null,
+        "status": "**Running** (baseline read)",
+        "state": "running",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
+      },
+      {
+        "id": "P-PL11",
+        "registered": true,
+        "level": "chapter",
+        "chapter": "Chapter III — Scale",
+        "prediction": "**Replication** — the first graduated bank's first 90 days show ≥3 members active in ≥2 ISO weeks each, pass-forward ≥ 0.5 and reach ≥ 0.6: the founding family's pattern without the founder. The only cure for n=1. Read by re-segmenting the monthly report on that bank once P-PL3 resolves",
+        "falsifier": null,
+        "status": "Unrun (gated on P-PL3)",
+        "state": "unrun",
+        "stating_paper": {
+          "slug": "prediction-register",
+          "section": null,
+          "attribution": "register",
+          "verified_in_paper": null
+        },
+        "provenance_text": "First public here"
       }
     ],
     "instrumented_outside_core": [

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
     "name": "@333eco/corpus",
-    "version": "2.1.4",
+    "version": "2.1.5",
     "description": "An MCP server for an open-licensed corpus, served with verifiable provenance — every document carries its sha256, DOI and OpenTimestamps proof so a consuming agent can check its own citation.",
     "license": "CC0-1.0",
     "author": "Thon Ly",