@10et/cli 1.0.0

package/dist/lib/predictor.js

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+/**
+ * Stratus Prediction Engine (Phase 2 RL)
+ *
+ * Combines Stratus rollout (fast, structural JEPA world model) with
+ * chat (slow, semantic reasoning) into an ensemble prediction that
+ * estimates eval score delta before executing changes.
+ *
+ * @purpose Predict eval score delta before executing changes — Stratus as world model / value function
+ */
+import { readFileSync, existsSync, appendFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync } from 'fs';
+import { join, dirname } from 'path';
+import { randomUUID } from 'crypto';
+import { PolicyHeadInference } from './policy-head.js';
+function findProjectRoot() {
+    let dir = process.cwd();
+    while (dir !== dirname(dir)) {
+        if (existsSync(join(dir, '.jfl', 'config.json')))
+            return dir;
+        if (existsSync(join(dir, '.jfl')))
+            return dir;
+        dir = dirname(dir);
+    }
+    return process.cwd();
+}
+export class Predictor {
+    baseUrl;
+    apiKey;
+    model;
+    predictionsPath;
+    projectRoot;
+    policyHead = null;
+    constructor(options = {}) {
+        this.baseUrl = options.baseUrl || process.env.STRATUS_API_URL || 'https://api.stratus.run';
+        this.apiKey = options.apiKey || process.env.STRATUS_API_KEY || '';
+        this.model = options.model || 'stratus-x1ac-base-claude-sonnet-4-6';
+        this.projectRoot = options.projectRoot || findProjectRoot();
+        this.predictionsPath = join(this.projectRoot, '.jfl', 'predictions', 'predictions.jsonl');
+        try {
+            this.policyHead = new PolicyHeadInference(this.projectRoot);
+        }
+        catch {
+            this.policyHead = null;
+        }
+    }
+    async selectAction(state, goal) {
+        if (!this.policyHead?.isLoaded || this.policyHead.version < 2)
+            return null;
+        try {
+            const selection = await this.policyHead.selectAction(state, goal);
+            return { action: selection.action, confidence: selection.confidence };
+        }
+        catch {
+            return null;
+        }
+    }
+    async predict(input) {
+        const predictionId = `pred_${randomUUID().slice(0, 8)}`;
+        const ts = new Date().toISOString();
+        // v2 policy head: recommend action type before rollout/chat
+        let policyAction = null;
+        if (input.rl_state) {
+            policyAction = await this.selectAction(input.rl_state, input.goal);
+        }
+        const [rolloutResult, chatResult] = await Promise.allSettled([
+            this.callRollout(input, policyAction),
+            this.callChat(input, policyAction),
+        ]);
+        const rollout = rolloutResult.status === 'fulfilled' ? rolloutResult.value : null;
+        const chat = chatResult.status === 'fulfilled' ? chatResult.value : null;
+        let output;
+        if (chat && rollout) {
+            output = this.ensemble(predictionId, ts, input, rollout, chat);
+        }
+        else if (chat) {
+            output = this.fromChat(predictionId, ts, input, chat);
+        }
+        else if (rollout) {
+            output = this.fromRollout(predictionId, ts, input, rollout);
+        }
+        else {
+            const rolloutErr = rolloutResult.status === 'rejected' ? rolloutResult.reason?.message : 'unknown';
+            const chatErr = chatResult.status === 'rejected' ? chatResult.reason?.message : 'unknown';
+            throw new Error(`Both Stratus endpoints failed. Rollout: ${rolloutErr}. Chat: ${chatErr}`);
+        }
+        if (policyAction) {
+            output.policy_head_action = policyAction.action;
+            output.policy_head_confidence = policyAction.confidence;
+        }
+        this.logPrediction(output, input);
+        try {
+            const { telemetry } = await import('./telemetry.js');
+            telemetry.track({
+                category: 'performance',
+                event: 'predictor:predict',
+                success: true,
+                stratus_confidence: output.confidence,
+                feature_context: JSON.stringify({
+                    method: output.method,
+                    predicted_delta: output.predicted_delta,
+                    recommendation: output.recommendation,
+                    brain_goal_proximity: output.brain_goal_proximity,
+                    change_type: input.proposal.change_type,
+                    scope: input.proposal.scope,
+                    policy_head_action: policyAction?.action,
+                    policy_head_confidence: policyAction?.confidence,
+                }),
+            });
+        }
+        catch {
+            // telemetry is fire-and-forget
+        }
+        return output;
+    }
+    async resolve(predictionId, actualDelta, actualScore, evalRunId) {
+        const records = this.readRecords();
+        const idx = records.findIndex(r => r.prediction_id === predictionId);
+        if (idx === -1) {
+            throw new Error(`Prediction ${predictionId} not found`);
+        }
+        const record = records[idx];
+        record.actual = {
+            delta: actualDelta,
+            score: actualScore,
+            eval_run_id: evalRunId,
+            resolved_at: new Date().toISOString(),
+        };
+        const deltaError = Math.abs(record.prediction.delta - actualDelta);
+        const directionCorrect = (record.prediction.delta >= 0 && actualDelta >= 0) ||
+            (record.prediction.delta < 0 && actualDelta < 0);
+        const calibration = record.prediction.confidence > 0
+            ? 1 - Math.abs(deltaError / Math.max(Math.abs(actualDelta), 0.001))
+            : 0;
+        record.accuracy = {
+            delta_error: deltaError,
+            direction_correct: directionCorrect,
+            calibration: Math.max(0, Math.min(1, calibration)),
+        };
+        records[idx] = record;
+        this.writeRecords(records);
+        try {
+            const { telemetry } = await import('./telemetry.js');
+            telemetry.track({
+                category: 'performance',
+                event: 'predictor:resolve',
+                success: directionCorrect,
+                feature_context: JSON.stringify({
+                    prediction_id: predictionId,
+                    delta_error: deltaError,
+                    direction_correct: directionCorrect,
+                    calibration: record.accuracy.calibration,
+                }),
+            });
+        }
+        catch {
+            // fire-and-forget
+        }
+    }
+    getAccuracy(limit) {
+        const records = this.readRecords();
+        const resolved = records.filter(r => r.accuracy !== null);
+        const subset = limit ? resolved.slice(-limit) : resolved;
+        if (subset.length === 0) {
+            return { total: records.length, resolved: 0, direction_accuracy: 0, mean_delta_error: 0, calibration: 0 };
+        }
+        const directionCorrect = subset.filter(r => r.accuracy.direction_correct).length;
+        const meanDeltaError = subset.reduce((s, r) => s + r.accuracy.delta_error, 0) / subset.length;
+        const meanCalibration = subset.reduce((s, r) => s + r.accuracy.calibration, 0) / subset.length;
+        return {
+            total: records.length,
+            resolved: subset.length,
+            direction_accuracy: directionCorrect / subset.length,
+            mean_delta_error: meanDeltaError,
+            calibration: meanCalibration,
+        };
+    }
+    getHistory(limit = 20) {
+        const records = this.readRecords();
+        return records.slice(-limit);
+    }
+    async callRollout(input, policyAction) {
+        const controller = new AbortController();
+        const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), 15_000);
+        try {
+            const state = {
+                current_score: input.current_score,
+                proposal: input.proposal,
+                failing_evals: input.failing_evals || [],
+                recent_trajectory: input.recent_trajectory,
+            };
+            if (policyAction) {
+                state.recommended_action = policyAction.action;
+                state.action_confidence = policyAction.confidence;
+            }
+            const response = await fetch(`${this.baseUrl}/v1/rollout`, {
+                method: 'POST',
+                headers: this.headers(),
+                body: JSON.stringify({
+                    model: this.model,
+                    state,
+                    goal: input.goal,
+                    horizon: 5,
+                    return_confidence: true,
+                }),
+                signal: controller.signal,
+            });
+            if (!response.ok) {
+                const errText = await response.text();
+                throw new Error(`Rollout API error (${response.status}): ${errText.slice(0, 200)}`);
+            }
+            return await response.json();
+        }
+        finally {
+            clearTimeout(timer);
+        }
+    }
+    async callChat(input, policyAction) {
+        const controller = new AbortController();
+        const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), 60_000);
+        try {
+            const trajectoryStr = input.recent_trajectory.length > 0
+                ? input.recent_trajectory
+                    .map(t => `  - ${t.action}: delta=${t.delta >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${t.delta.toFixed(4)}, reward=${t.reward.toFixed(2)}`)
+                    .join('\n')
+                : '  (no prior trajectory)';
+            const failingStr = input.failing_evals && input.failing_evals.length > 0
+                ? input.failing_evals.map(e => `  - ${e}`).join('\n')
+                : '  (none specified)';
+            const policyContext = policyAction
+                ? `\nPolicy head recommendation: ${policyAction.action} (confidence: ${(policyAction.confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}%)
+  Consider whether the proposed change aligns with this recommendation.`
+                : '';
+            const prompt = `You are a prediction engine for an RL-based eval optimization loop. Given a proposed code change and current eval trajectory, predict whether the change will improve the eval composite score.
+
+Current composite score: ${input.current_score}
+Goal: ${input.goal}
+
+Proposed change:
+  Description: ${input.proposal.description}
+  Type: ${input.proposal.change_type}
+  Scope: ${input.proposal.scope}
+  Files: ${(input.proposal.files_affected || []).join(', ') || 'unspecified'}
+${policyContext}
+Failing evals:
+${failingStr}
+
+Recent trajectory (action, delta, reward):
+${trajectoryStr}
+
+Respond in this exact JSON format (no markdown fences):
+{
+  "predicted_delta": <number between -1 and 1>,
+  "confidence": <number between 0 and 1>,
+  "reasoning": "<2-3 sentence explanation>",
+  "risks": [{"description": "<risk>", "severity": "low|medium|high"}],
+  "recommendation": "proceed|revise|abandon"
+}
+
+Base your prediction on:
+1. How similar changes performed in the trajectory
+2. Whether the change directly addresses failing evals
+3. The scope and risk profile of the change type
+4. Diminishing returns patterns in the trajectory`;
+            const response = await fetch(`${this.baseUrl}/v1/chat/completions`, {
+                method: 'POST',
+                headers: this.headers(),
+                body: JSON.stringify({
+                    model: this.model,
+                    messages: [{ role: 'user', content: prompt }],
+                    temperature: 0.3,
+                    max_tokens: 1000,
+                }),
+                signal: controller.signal,
+            });
+            if (!response.ok) {
+                const errText = await response.text();
+                throw new Error(`Chat API error (${response.status}): ${errText.slice(0, 200)}`);
+            }
+            const result = await response.json();
+            const content = result.choices?.[0]?.message?.content || '';
+            return this.parseChatResponse(content);
+        }
+        finally {
+            clearTimeout(timer);
+        }
+    }
+    parseChatResponse(content) {
+        const jsonMatch = content.match(/\{[\s\S]*\}/);
+        if (!jsonMatch) {
+            throw new Error('Chat response did not contain valid JSON');
+        }
+        try {
+            const parsed = JSON.parse(jsonMatch[0]);
+            const delta = typeof parsed.predicted_delta === 'number'
+                ? Math.max(-1, Math.min(1, parsed.predicted_delta))
+                : 0;
+            const confidence = typeof parsed.confidence === 'number'
+                ? Math.max(0, Math.min(1, parsed.confidence))
+                : 0.5;
+            const recommendation = ['proceed', 'revise', 'abandon'].includes(parsed.recommendation)
+                ? parsed.recommendation
+                : 'revise';
+            const risks = Array.isArray(parsed.risks)
+                ? parsed.risks.map((r) => ({
+                    description: String(r.description || ''),
+                    severity: ['low', 'medium', 'high'].includes(r.severity) ? r.severity : 'medium',
+                }))
+                : [];
+            return {
+                predicted_delta: delta,
+                confidence,
+                reasoning: String(parsed.reasoning || ''),
+                risks,
+                recommendation,
+            };
+        }
+        catch {
+            throw new Error(`Failed to parse chat prediction JSON: ${content.slice(0, 200)}`);
+        }
+    }
+    ensemble(predictionId, ts, input, rollout, chat) {
+        const avgGoalProximity = rollout.predictions.length > 0
+            ? rollout.predictions.reduce((s, p) => s + p.brain_goal_proximity, 0) / rollout.predictions.length
+            : 0.5;
+        const rolloutDelta = (avgGoalProximity - 0.5) * 0.2;
+        const ensembleDelta = chat.predicted_delta * 0.6 + rolloutDelta * 0.4;
+        const avgBrainConf = rollout.predictions.length > 0
+            ? rollout.predictions.reduce((s, p) => s + p.brain_confidence, 0) / rollout.predictions.length
+            : 0.5;
+        const ensembleConfidence = chat.confidence * 0.6 + avgBrainConf * 0.4;
+        return {
+            prediction_id: predictionId,
+            predicted_delta: Math.round(ensembleDelta * 10000) / 10000,
+            predicted_score: Math.round((input.current_score + ensembleDelta) * 10000) / 10000,
+            confidence: Math.round(ensembleConfidence * 100) / 100,
+            reasoning: chat.reasoning,
+            risks: chat.risks,
+            recommendation: chat.recommendation,
+            brain_goal_proximity: Math.round(avgGoalProximity * 10000) / 10000,
+            method: 'ensemble',
+            ts,
+        };
+    }
+    fromChat(predictionId, ts, input, chat) {
+        return {
+            prediction_id: predictionId,
+            predicted_delta: chat.predicted_delta,
+            predicted_score: Math.round((input.current_score + chat.predicted_delta) * 10000) / 10000,
+            confidence: chat.confidence,
+            reasoning: chat.reasoning,
+            risks: chat.risks,
+            recommendation: chat.recommendation,
+            brain_goal_proximity: 0,
+            method: 'chat',
+            ts,
+        };
+    }
+    fromRollout(predictionId, ts, input, rollout) {
+        const avgGoalProximity = rollout.predictions.length > 0
+            ? rollout.predictions.reduce((s, p) => s + p.brain_goal_proximity, 0) / rollout.predictions.length
+            : 0.5;
+        const avgBrainConf = rollout.predictions.length > 0
+            ? rollout.predictions.reduce((s, p) => s + p.brain_confidence, 0) / rollout.predictions.length
+            : 0.5;
+        const rolloutDelta = (avgGoalProximity - 0.5) * 0.2;
+        const recommendation = avgGoalProximity > 0.6 ? 'proceed' :
+            avgGoalProximity > 0.4 ? 'revise' : 'abandon';
+        return {
+            prediction_id: predictionId,
+            predicted_delta: Math.round(rolloutDelta * 10000) / 10000,
+            predicted_score: Math.round((input.current_score + rolloutDelta) * 10000) / 10000,
+            confidence: Math.round(avgBrainConf * 100) / 100,
+            reasoning: `Rollout-only prediction. Brain goal proximity: ${avgGoalProximity.toFixed(4)}. ` +
+                `${rollout.predictions.length} steps evaluated with avg confidence ${avgBrainConf.toFixed(4)}.`,
+            risks: [],
+            recommendation,
+            brain_goal_proximity: Math.round(avgGoalProximity * 10000) / 10000,
+            method: 'rollout',
+            ts,
+        };
+    }
+    logPrediction(output, input) {
+        const record = {
+            prediction_id: output.prediction_id,
+            ts: output.ts,
+            proposal: input.proposal,
+            input_score: input.current_score,
+            prediction: {
+                delta: output.predicted_delta,
+                score: output.predicted_score,
+                confidence: output.confidence,
+                recommendation: output.recommendation,
+                method: output.method,
+                brain_goal_proximity: output.brain_goal_proximity,
+            },
+            actual: null,
+            accuracy: null,
+        };
+        const dir = dirname(this.predictionsPath);
+        if (!existsSync(dir))
+            mkdirSync(dir, { recursive: true });
+        appendFileSync(this.predictionsPath, JSON.stringify(record) + '\n');
+    }
+    readRecords() {
+        if (!existsSync(this.predictionsPath))
+            return [];
+        const content = readFileSync(this.predictionsPath, 'utf-8');
+        return content
+            .split('\n')
+            .filter(line => line.trim())
+            .map(line => {
+            try {
+                return JSON.parse(line);
+            }
+            catch {
+                return null;
+            }
+        })
+            .filter((r) => r !== null);
+    }
+    writeRecords(records) {
+        const dir = dirname(this.predictionsPath);
+        if (!existsSync(dir))
+            mkdirSync(dir, { recursive: true });
+        writeFileSync(this.predictionsPath, records.map(r => JSON.stringify(r)).join('\n') + '\n');
+    }
+    headers() {
+        const h = { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' };
+        if (this.apiKey)
+            h['Authorization'] = `Bearer ${this.apiKey}`;
+        return h;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=predictor.js.map

package/dist/lib/predictor.js.map

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package/dist/lib/replay-buffer.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+/**
+ * Shared Replay Buffer
+ *
+ * Cross-agent learning via append-only JSONL file.
+ * Enables agents to learn from each other's experiences.
+ * 80% from own agent, 20% from others by default.
+ *
+ * @purpose Shared replay buffer for cross-agent reinforcement learning
+ */
+import type { RLState, RLAction } from "./training-buffer.js";
+export interface ReplayEntry {
+    id: string;
+    agent: string;
+    session_id: string;
+    state_hash: string;
+    state: RLState;
+    action_diff: string;
+    action: RLAction;
+    hypothesis: string;
+    reward: number;
+    timestamp: string;
+}
+export interface ReplayStats {
+    totalEntries: number;
+    perAgent: Record<string, number>;
+    avgReward: number;
+    positiveRate: number;
+    oldestEntry?: string;
+    newestEntry?: string;
+}
+export interface SampleOptions {
+    batchSize: number;
+    crossAgentRatio: number;
+    minReward?: number;
+    maxAge?: number;
+}
+export declare class ReplayBuffer {
+    private bufferPath;
+    private projectRoot;
+    constructor(projectRoot?: string);
+    /**
+     * Append a new entry to the replay buffer
+     */
+    write(entry: Omit<ReplayEntry, "id">): ReplayEntry;
+    /**
+     * Read all entries from the replay buffer
+     */
+    readAll(): ReplayEntry[];
+    /**
+     * Sample entries for training
+     * By default: 80% from target agent, 20% from others
+     */
+    sample(agent: string, options: SampleOptions): ReplayEntry[];
+    /**
+     * Sample with prioritized experience replay
+     * Prioritizes entries with higher absolute reward (more informative)
+     */
+    samplePrioritized(agent: string, options: SampleOptions): ReplayEntry[];
+    private prioritizedSample;
+    /**
+     * Get statistics about the replay buffer
+     */
+    stats(): ReplayStats;
+    /**
+     * Get entries for a specific agent
+     */
+    getForAgent(agent: string): ReplayEntry[];
+    /**
+     * Get recent entries
+     */
+    getRecent(count?: number): ReplayEntry[];
+    /**
+     * Export for policy head training
+     */
+    exportForTraining(): Array<{
+        state_text: string;
+        action_text: string;
+        reward: number;
+        agent: string;
+        ts: string;
+    }>;
+    private formatStateText;
+    private formatActionText;
+    private shuffle;
+    /**
+     * Clear old entries (keep last N or by age)
+     */
+    prune(options: {
+        maxEntries?: number;
+        maxAge?: number;
+    }): number;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=replay-buffer.d.ts.map

package/dist/lib/replay-buffer.d.ts.map

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