profitable 0.2.1 → 0.2.3

checksums.yaml

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 ---
 SHA256:
-  metadata.gz: bf77ba92fb941bb21624c1f677bbfff37d874fefa06050e1fe6b395ae55ea3e2
-  data.tar.gz: 8d4cf7614e186d7082692faa36794916111205293a45aac055565c2e7923a24b
+  metadata.gz: 506d907bbcbaa811d4986d49fffdc7f1874c77528fb99996f49621834a15e263
+  data.tar.gz: 6e37aaa616a3238b85cacfd4d3b9373781b4632fb4e4e36ad7946a8d71fa066e
 SHA512:
-  metadata.gz: 73c2251e3d2566b1d22f7319d179f9d8f1077dd70354add0fb8718232f094f613fd4aef048a0accbba8214d5ac4911497d4c6704199cf17470be6ed5ad485e06
-  data.tar.gz: 30abc5f18398a6e1553effc66b59407f43610a90a01448dae90dab8eeb74198921593c3e6cb8bea9b63cce14f9435eccb69a53c1d71912b9214392b3e7375e20
+  metadata.gz: aafa273d6430cd1e4c30dada038bdc83a9ecacec8c2d9be0f9f6bad642dc818399dbb494876244eb50c96c1aa3af7932ef43f56e839ab11a8b8f036a375f822f
+  data.tar.gz: 7dca54330874ae397c77b2400364429509dffc5de96a2096fe963984455ff4c46e67849c5305218086684beb7b1d5300815f49af252ba9e875c028c42b717c1a

data/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -1,5 +1,15 @@
 # `profitable`
 
+## [0.2.3] - 2024-09-01
+
+- Fix the `time_to_next_mrr_milestone` estimation and make it accurate to the day
+
+## [0.2.2] - 2024-09-01
+
+- Improve MRR calculations with prorated churned and new MRR (hopefully fixes bad churned MRR calculations)
+- Only consider paid charges for all revenue calculations (hopefully fixes bad ARPC calculations)
+- Add `multiple:` parameter as another option for `estimated_valuation` (same as `at:`, just syntactic sugar)
+
 ## [0.2.1] - 2024-08-31
 
 - Add syntactic sugar for `estimated_valuation(at: "3x")`

data/README.md

@@ -100,11 +100,11 @@ Profitable.churn(in_the_last: 3.months).to_readable # => "12%"
 # You can specify the precision of the output number (no decimals by default)
 Profitable.new_mrr(in_the_last: 24.hours).to_readable(2) # => "$123.45"
 
-# Get the estimated valuation at 5x ARR
-Profitable.estimated_valuation(at: "5x").to_readable # => "$500,000"
+# Get the estimated valuation at 5x ARR (defaults to 3x if no multiple is specified)
+Profitable.estimated_valuation(multiple: 5).to_readable # => "$500,000"
 
-# You can also pass the multiplier as a number, and/or ignore the "at:" keyword altogether
-Profitable.estimated_valuation(4.5).to_readable # => "$450,000"
+# You can also pass the multiplier as a string. You can also use the `at:` keyword argument (same thing as `multiplier:`) – and/or ignore the `at:` or `multiplier:` named arguments altogether
+Profitable.estimated_valuation(at: "4.5x").to_readable # => "$450,000"
 
 # Get the time to next MRR milestone
 Profitable.time_to_next_mrr_milestone.to_readable  # => "26 days left to $10,000 MRR"

data/lib/profitable/version.rb

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 # frozen_string_literal: true
 
 module Profitable
-  VERSION = "0.2.1"
+  VERSION = "0.2.3"
 end

data/lib/profitable.rb

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ module Profitable
     include ActionView::Helpers::NumberHelper
 
     DEFAULT_PERIOD = 30.days
-    MRR_MILESTONES = [100, 1_000, 10_000, 100_000, 1_000_000, 10_000_000, 100_000_000]
+    MRR_MILESTONES = [5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 1_000, 2_000, 3_000, 5_000, 10_000, 20_000, 30_000, 50_000, 83_333, 100_000, 250_000, 500_000, 1_000_000, 5_000_000, 10_000_000, 25_000_000, 50_000_000, 75_000_000, 100_000_000]
 
     def mrr
       NumericResult.new(MrrCalculator.calculate)
@@ -46,8 +46,8 @@ module Profitable
       NumericResult.new(calculate_recurring_revenue_percentage(in_the_last), :percentage)
     end
 
-    def estimated_valuation(multiplier = 3, at: nil)
-      actual_multiplier = at || multiplier
+    def estimated_valuation(multiplier = nil, at: nil, multiple: nil)
+      actual_multiplier = multiplier || at || multiple || 3
       NumericResult.new(calculate_estimated_valuation(actual_multiplier))
     end
 
@@ -104,13 +104,18 @@ module Profitable
       next_milestone = MRR_MILESTONES.find { |milestone| milestone > current_mrr }
       return "Congratulations! You've reached the highest milestone." unless next_milestone
 
-      growth_rate = calculate_mrr_growth_rate
-      return "Unable to calculate. Need more data or positive growth." if growth_rate <= 0
+      monthly_growth_rate = calculate_mrr_growth_rate / 100
+      return "Unable to calculate. Need more data or positive growth." if monthly_growth_rate <= 0
 
-      months_to_milestone = (Math.log(next_milestone.to_f / current_mrr) / Math.log(1 + growth_rate)).ceil
-      days_to_milestone = months_to_milestone * 30
+      # Convert monthly growth rate to daily growth rate
+      daily_growth_rate = (1 + monthly_growth_rate) ** (1.0 / 30) - 1
 
-      return "#{days_to_milestone} days left to $#{number_with_delimiter(next_milestone)} MRR (#{(Time.current + days_to_milestone.days).strftime('%b %d, %Y')})"
+      # Calculate the number of days to reach the next milestone
+      days_to_milestone = (Math.log(next_milestone.to_f / current_mrr) / Math.log(1 + daily_growth_rate)).ceil
+
+      target_date = Time.current + days_to_milestone.days
+
+      "#{days_to_milestone} days left to $#{number_with_delimiter(next_milestone)} MRR (#{target_date.strftime('%b %d, %Y')})"
     end
 
     private
@@ -170,23 +175,50 @@ module Profitable
     end
 
     def calculate_churned_mrr(period = DEFAULT_PERIOD)
-      churned_subscriptions(period).sum do |subscription|
-        MrrCalculator.process_subscription(subscription)
-      end
+      start_date = period.ago
+      end_date = Time.current
+
+      Pay::Subscription
+        .includes(:customer)
+        .select('pay_subscriptions.*, pay_customers.processor as customer_processor')
+        .joins(:customer)
+        .where(status: ['canceled', 'ended'])
+        .where('pay_subscriptions.updated_at BETWEEN ? AND ?', start_date, end_date)
+        .sum do |subscription|
+          if subscription.ends_at && subscription.ends_at > end_date
+            # Subscription ends in the future, don't count it as churned yet
+            0
+          else
+            # Calculate prorated MRR if the subscription ended within the period
+            end_date = [subscription.ends_at, end_date].compact.min
+            days_in_period = (end_date - start_date).to_i
+            total_days = (subscription.current_period_end - subscription.current_period_start).to_i
+            prorated_days = [days_in_period, total_days].min
+
+            mrr = MrrCalculator.process_subscription(subscription)
+            (mrr.to_f * prorated_days / total_days).round
+          end
+        end
     end
 
     def calculate_new_mrr(period = DEFAULT_PERIOD)
-      new_subscriptions = Pay::Subscription
+      start_date = period.ago
+      end_date = Time.current
+
+      Pay::Subscription
         .active
-        .where(pay_subscriptions: { created_at: period.ago..Time.current })
-        .where.not(status: ['trialing', 'paused'])
         .includes(:customer)
         .select('pay_subscriptions.*, pay_customers.processor as customer_processor')
         .joins(:customer)
-
-      new_subscriptions.sum do |subscription|
-        MrrCalculator.process_subscription(subscription)
-      end
+        .where(created_at: start_date..end_date)
+        .where.not(status: ['trialing', 'paused'])
+        .sum do |subscription|
+          mrr = MrrCalculator.process_subscription(subscription)
+          days_in_period = (end_date - subscription.created_at).to_i
+          total_days = (subscription.current_period_end - subscription.current_period_start).to_i
+          prorated_days = [days_in_period, total_days].min
+          (mrr.to_f * prorated_days / total_days).round
+        end
     end
 
     def calculate_revenue_in_period(period)
@@ -210,7 +242,10 @@ module Profitable
     end
 
     def calculate_total_customers
-      actual_customers.count
+      Pay::Customer.joins(:charges)
+                   .merge(paid_charges)
+                   .distinct
+                   .count
     end
 
     def calculate_total_subscribers
@@ -243,8 +278,9 @@ module Profitable
     end
 
     def calculate_average_revenue_per_customer
-      return 0 if total_customers.zero?
-      (all_time_revenue.to_f / total_customers).round
+      paying_customers = calculate_total_customers
+      return 0 if paying_customers.zero?
+      (all_time_revenue.to_f / paying_customers).round
     end
 
     def calculate_lifetime_value

metadata

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 --- !ruby/object:Gem::Specification
 name: profitable
 version: !ruby/object:Gem::Version
-  version: 0.2.1
+  version: 0.2.3
 platform: ruby
 authors:
 - rameerez
 autorequire:
 bindir: exe
 cert_chain: []
-date: 2024-08-31 00:00:00.000000000 Z
+date: 2024-09-01 00:00:00.000000000 Z
 dependencies:
 - !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
   name: pay