glicko2 0.0.1 → 0.1.0
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- data/README.md +4 -8
- data/lib/glicko2.rb +31 -133
- data/lib/glicko2/player.rb +189 -0
- data/lib/glicko2/rating_period.rb +66 -0
- data/lib/glicko2/version.rb +1 -1
- data/spec/minitest_helper.rb +1 -0
- data/spec/player_spec.rb +4 -0
- data/spec/rating_period_spec.rb +19 -30
- data/spec/util_spec.rb +17 -0
- metadata +7 -2
data/README.md
CHANGED
@@ -28,15 +28,11 @@ Rating = Struct.new(:rating, :rating_deviation, :volatility)
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rating1 = Rating.new(1400, 30, 0.06)
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rating2 = Rating.new(1550, 100, 0.06)
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-
#
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player2 = Glicko2::Player.from_obj(rating2)
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# Rating period with all participating ratings
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period = Glicko2::RatingPeriod.from_objs [rating1, rating2]
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-
#
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period
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-
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# Register a game in this rating period
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-
period.game([player1, player2], [1,2])
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# Register a game where rating1 wins against rating2
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period.game([rating1, rating2], [1,2])
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# Generate the next rating period with updated players
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next_period = period.generate_next
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data/lib/glicko2.rb
CHANGED
@@ -1,119 +1,43 @@
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require "glicko2/version"
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require "glicko2/player"
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require "glicko2/rating_period"
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module Glicko2
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-
TOLERANCE = 0.0000001
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DEFAULT_VOLATILITY = 0.06
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DEFAULT_GLICKO_RATING = 1500.0
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DEFAULT_GLICKO_RATING_DEVIATION = 350.0
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9
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GLICKO_GRADIENT = 173.7178
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GLICKO_INTERCEPT = DEFAULT_GLICKO_RATING
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-
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VOLATILITY_CHANGE = 0.5
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end
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-
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def delta(others, scores)
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others.zip(scores).reduce(0) do |d, (other, score)|
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d + other.g * (score - e(other))
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end * variance(others)
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end
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def f_part1(x, others, scores)
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sd_sq = sd ** 2
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v = variance(others)
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_x = Math.exp(x)
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(_x * (delta(others, scores) ** 2 - sd_sq - v - _x)) / (2 * (sd_sq + v + _x) ** 2)
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end
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-
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def f_part2(x)
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(x - Math::log(volatility ** 2)) / VOLATILITY_CHANGE ** 2
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end
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-
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def f(x, others, scores)
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f_part1(x, others, scores) - f_part2(x)
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end
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-
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def generate_next(others, scores)
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if others.length < 1
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sd_pre = Math.sqrt(sd ** 2 + volatility ** 2)
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return self.class.new(mean, sd_pre, volatility, obj) if others.length < 1
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end
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_v = variance(others)
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a = Math::log(volatility ** 2)
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if delta(others, scores) > sd ** 2 + _v
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b = Math.log(_delta - sd ** 2 - _v)
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else
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k = 1
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k += 1 while f(a - k * VOLATILITY_CHANGE, others, scores) < 0
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b = a - k * VOLATILITY_CHANGE
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end
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fa = f(a, others, scores)
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fb = f(b, others, scores)
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while (b - a).abs > TOLERANCE
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c = a + (a - b) * fa / (fb - fa)
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fc = f(c, others, scores)
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if fc * fb < 0
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a = b
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fa = fb
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else
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fa /= 2.0
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end
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b = c
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fb = fc
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end
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volatility1 = Math.exp(a / 2.0)
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sd_pre = Math.sqrt(sd ** 2 + volatility1 ** 2)
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sd1 = 1 / Math.sqrt(1 / sd_pre ** 2 + 1 / _v)
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mean1 = mean + sd1 ** 2 * others.zip(scores).reduce(0) {|x, (other, score)| x + other.g * (score - e(other)) }
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self.class.new(mean1, sd1, volatility1, obj)
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end
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def update_obj
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@obj.rating = GLICKO_GRADIENT * mean + GLICKO_INTERCEPT
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@obj.rating_deviation = GLICKO_GRADIENT * sd
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@obj.volatility = volatility
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end
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def to_s
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"#<Player mean=#{mean}, sd=#{sd}, volatility=#{volatility}, obj=#{obj}>"
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end
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end
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class RatingPeriod
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def initialize(players)
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@players = players.reduce({}) { |memo, player| memo[player] = []; memo }
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end
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-
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# Collection of helper methods
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class Util
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GLICKO_GRADIENT = 173.7178
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GLICKO_INTERCEPT = DEFAULT_GLICKO_RATING
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# Convert from the original Glicko scale to Glicko2 scale
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#
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# @param [Numeric] r Glicko rating
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# @param [Numeric] rd Glicko rating deviation
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# @return [Array<Numeric>]
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def self.to_glicko2(r, rd)
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[(r - GLICKO_INTERCEPT) / GLICKO_GRADIENT, rd / GLICKO_GRADIENT]
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end
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# Convert from the Glicko2 scale to the original Glicko scale
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#
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# @param [Numeric] m Glicko2 mean
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# @param [Numeric] sd Glicko2 standard deviation
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# @return [Array<Numeric>]
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def self.to_glicko(m, sd)
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[GLICKO_GRADIENT * m + GLICKO_INTERCEPT, GLICKO_GRADIENT * sd]
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end
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# Convert from a rank, where lower numbers win against higher numbers,
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# into Glicko scores where wins are `1`, draws are `0.5` and losses are `0`.
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#
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# @param [Integer] rank players rank
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# @param [Integer] other opponents rank
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# @return [Numeric] Glicko score
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def self.ranks_to_score(rank, other)
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if rank < other
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1.0
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@@ -123,31 +47,5 @@ module Glicko2
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0.0
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end
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end
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def game(game_players, ranks)
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game_players.zip(ranks).each do |player, rank|
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game_players.zip(ranks).each do |other, other_rank|
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next if player == other
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@players[player] << [other, self.class.ranks_to_score(rank, other_rank)]
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end
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end
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end
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def generate_next
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p = []
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@players.each do |player, games|
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p << player.generate_next(*games.transpose)
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end
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self.class.new(p)
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end
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def players
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@players.keys
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end
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def to_s
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"#<RatingPeriod players=#{@players.keys}"
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end
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end
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end
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@@ -0,0 +1,189 @@
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module Glicko2
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# Calculates a new Glicko2 ranking based on a seed object and game outcomes.
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#
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# The example from the Glicko2 paper, where a player wins against the first
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# opponent, but then looses against the next two:
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#
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# Rating = Struct.new(:rating, :rating_deviation, :volatility)
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#
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# player_seed = Rating.new(1500, 200, 0.06)
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# opponent1_seed = Rating.new(1400, 30, 0.06)
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# opponent2_seed = Rating.new(1550, 100, 0.06)
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# opponent3_seed = Rating.new(1700, 300, 0.06)
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#
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# player = Glicko2::Player.from_obj(player_seed)
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# opponent1 = Glicko2::Player.from_obj(opponent1_seed)
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# opponent2 = Glicko2::Player.from_obj(opponent2_seed)
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# opponent3 = Glicko2::Player.from_obj(opponent3_seed)
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#
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# new_player = player.generate_next([opponent1, opponent2, opponent3],
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# [1, 0, 0])
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# new_player.update_obj
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#
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# puts player_seed
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#
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class Player
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TOLERANCE = 0.0000001
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attr_reader :mean, :sd, :volatility, :obj
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# Create a {Player} from a seed object, converting from Glicko
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# ratings to Glicko2.
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#
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# @param [#rating,#rating_deviation,#volatility] obj seed values object
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# @return [Player] constructed instance.
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def self.from_obj(obj)
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mean, sd = Util.to_glicko2(obj.rating, obj.rating_deviation)
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new(mean, sd, obj.volatility, obj)
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end
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# @param [Numeric] mean player mean
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# @param [Numeric] sd player standard deviation
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# @param [Numeric] volatility player volatility
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# @param [#rating,#rating_deviation,#volatility] obj seed values object
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def initialize(mean, sd, volatility, obj=nil)
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@mean = mean
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@sd = sd
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@volatility = volatility
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@obj = obj
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@e = {}
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end
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# Calculate `g(phi)` as defined in the Glicko2 paper
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#
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# @return [Numeric]
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def g
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@g ||= 1 / Math.sqrt(1 + 3 * sd ** 2 / Math::PI ** 2)
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end
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# Calculate `E(mu, mu_j, phi_j)` as defined in the Glicko2 paper
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#
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# @param [Player] other the `j` player
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# @return [Numeric]
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def e(other)
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@e[other] ||= 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-other.g * (mean - other.mean)))
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end
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# Calculate the estimated variance of the team's/player's rating based only
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# on the game outcomes.
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#
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# @param [Array<Player>] others other participating players.
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# @return [Numeric]
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def variance(others)
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return 0.0 if others.length < 1
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others.reduce(0) do |v, other|
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e_other = e(other)
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v + other.g ** 2 * e_other * (1 - e_other)
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end ** -1
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end
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+
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# Calculate the estimated improvement in rating by comparing the
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# pre-period rating to the performance rating based only on game outcomes.
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#
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# @param [Array<Player>] others list of opponent players
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# @param [Array<Numeric>] scores list of correlating scores (`0` for a loss,
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# `0.5` for a draw and `1` for a win).
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# @return [Numeric]
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def delta(others, scores)
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others.zip(scores).reduce(0) do |d, (other, score)|
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89
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d + other.g * (score - e(other))
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end * variance(others)
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end
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+
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# Calculate `f(x)` as defined in the Glicko2 paper
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#
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# @param [Numeric] x
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# @param [Numeric] d the result of calculating {#delta}
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# @param [Numeric] v the result of calculating {#variance}
|
98
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# @return [Numeric]
|
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def f(x, d, v)
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100
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f_part1(x, d, v) - f_part2(x)
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end
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# Calculate the new value of the volatility
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#
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# @param [Numeric] d the result of calculating {#delta}
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# @param [Numeric] v the result of calculating {#variance}
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# @return [Numeric]
|
108
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def volatility1(d, v)
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109
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a = Math::log(volatility ** 2)
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110
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if d > sd ** 2 + v
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b = Math.log(d - sd ** 2 - v)
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else
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113
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k = 1
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k += 1 while f(a - k * VOLATILITY_CHANGE, d, v) < 0
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b = a - k * VOLATILITY_CHANGE
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end
|
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fa = f(a, d, v)
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fb = f(b, d, v)
|
119
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while (b - a).abs > TOLERANCE
|
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c = a + (a - b) * fa / (fb - fa)
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fc = f(c, d, v)
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if fc * fb < 0
|
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a = b
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fa = fb
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else
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fa /= 2.0
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end
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b = c
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fb = fc
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end
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Math.exp(a / 2.0)
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end
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+
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# Create new {Player} with updated values.
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#
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# This method will not modify any objects that are passed into it.
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#
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# @param [Array<Player>] others list of opponent players
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# @param [Array<Numeric>] scores list of correlating scores (`0` for a loss,
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# `0.5` for a draw and `1` for a win).
|
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# @return [Player]
|
142
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+
def generate_next(others, scores)
|
143
|
+
if others.length < 1
|
144
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+
generate_next_without_games
|
145
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+
else
|
146
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+
generate_next_with_games(others, scores)
|
147
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+
end
|
148
|
+
end
|
149
|
+
|
150
|
+
# Update seed object with this player's values
|
151
|
+
def update_obj
|
152
|
+
@obj.rating, @obj.rating_deviation = Util.to_glicko(mean, sd)
|
153
|
+
@obj.volatility = volatility
|
154
|
+
end
|
155
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+
|
156
|
+
def to_s
|
157
|
+
"#<Player mean=#{mean}, sd=#{sd}, volatility=#{volatility}, obj=#{obj}>"
|
158
|
+
end
|
159
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+
|
160
|
+
private
|
161
|
+
|
162
|
+
def generate_next_without_games
|
163
|
+
sd_pre = Math.sqrt(sd ** 2 + volatility ** 2)
|
164
|
+
self.class.new(mean, sd_pre, volatility, obj)
|
165
|
+
end
|
166
|
+
|
167
|
+
def generate_next_with_games(others, scores)
|
168
|
+
_v = variance(others)
|
169
|
+
_d = delta(others, scores)
|
170
|
+
_volatility = volatility1(_d, _v)
|
171
|
+
sd_pre = Math.sqrt(sd ** 2 + _volatility ** 2)
|
172
|
+
_sd = 1 / Math.sqrt(1 / sd_pre ** 2 + 1 / _v)
|
173
|
+
_mean = mean + _sd ** 2 * others.zip(scores).reduce(0) {
|
174
|
+
|x, (other, score)| x + other.g * (score - e(other))
|
175
|
+
}
|
176
|
+
self.class.new(_mean, _sd, _volatility, obj)
|
177
|
+
end
|
178
|
+
|
179
|
+
def f_part1(x, d, v)
|
180
|
+
exp_x = Math.exp(x)
|
181
|
+
sd_sq = sd ** 2
|
182
|
+
(exp_x * (d ** 2 - sd_sq - v - exp_x)) / (2 * (sd_sq + v + exp_x) ** 2)
|
183
|
+
end
|
184
|
+
|
185
|
+
def f_part2(x)
|
186
|
+
(x - Math::log(volatility ** 2)) / VOLATILITY_CHANGE ** 2
|
187
|
+
end
|
188
|
+
end
|
189
|
+
end
|
@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
|
|
1
|
+
module Glicko2
|
2
|
+
# Glicko ratings are calculated in bulk at the end of arbitrary, but fixed
|
3
|
+
# length, periods named rating periods. Where a period is fixed to be long
|
4
|
+
# enough that the average number of games that each player has played in is
|
5
|
+
# about 5 to 10 games. It could be weekly, monthly or more as required.
|
6
|
+
class RatingPeriod
|
7
|
+
attr_reader :players
|
8
|
+
|
9
|
+
# @param [Array<Player>] players
|
10
|
+
def initialize(players)
|
11
|
+
@players = players
|
12
|
+
@games = Hash.new { |h, k| h[k] = [] }
|
13
|
+
@cache = players.reduce({}) { |memo, player| memo[player.obj] = player; memo }
|
14
|
+
end
|
15
|
+
|
16
|
+
# Create rating period from list of seed objects
|
17
|
+
#
|
18
|
+
# @param [Array<#rating,#rating_deviation,#volatility>] objs seed value objects
|
19
|
+
# @return [RatingPeriod]
|
20
|
+
def self.from_objs(objs)
|
21
|
+
new(objs.map { |obj| Player.from_obj(obj) })
|
22
|
+
end
|
23
|
+
|
24
|
+
# Register a game with this rating period
|
25
|
+
#
|
26
|
+
# @param [Array<#rating,#rating_deviation,#volatility>] game_seeds ratings participating in a game
|
27
|
+
# @param [Array<Integer>] ranks corresponding ranks
|
28
|
+
def game(game_seeds, ranks)
|
29
|
+
game_seeds.zip(ranks).each do |seed, rank|
|
30
|
+
game_seeds.zip(ranks).each do |other, other_rank|
|
31
|
+
next if seed == other
|
32
|
+
@games[player(seed)] << [player(other),
|
33
|
+
Util.ranks_to_score(rank, other_rank)]
|
34
|
+
end
|
35
|
+
end
|
36
|
+
end
|
37
|
+
|
38
|
+
# Generate a new {RatingPeriod} with a new list of updated {Player}
|
39
|
+
#
|
40
|
+
# @return [RatingPeriod]
|
41
|
+
def generate_next
|
42
|
+
p = []
|
43
|
+
@players.each do |player|
|
44
|
+
games = @games[player]
|
45
|
+
if games.length > 0
|
46
|
+
p << player.generate_next(*games.transpose)
|
47
|
+
else
|
48
|
+
p << player.generate_next([], [])
|
49
|
+
end
|
50
|
+
end
|
51
|
+
self.class.new(p)
|
52
|
+
end
|
53
|
+
|
54
|
+
# Fetch the player associated with a seed object
|
55
|
+
#
|
56
|
+
# @param [#rating,#rating_deviation,#volatility] obj seed object
|
57
|
+
# @return [Player]
|
58
|
+
def player(obj)
|
59
|
+
@cache[obj]
|
60
|
+
end
|
61
|
+
|
62
|
+
def to_s
|
63
|
+
"#<RatingPeriod players=#{@players}"
|
64
|
+
end
|
65
|
+
end
|
66
|
+
end
|
data/lib/glicko2/version.rb
CHANGED
data/spec/minitest_helper.rb
CHANGED
data/spec/player_spec.rb
CHANGED
@@ -92,6 +92,10 @@ describe Glicko2::Player do
|
|
92
92
|
p.volatility.must_equal @player.volatility
|
93
93
|
p.sd.must_be_close_to Math.sqrt(@player.sd ** 2 + @player.volatility ** 2)
|
94
94
|
end
|
95
|
+
|
96
|
+
bench_performance_linear "default" do |n|
|
97
|
+
@player.generate_next(@others * n, @scores * n)
|
98
|
+
end
|
95
99
|
end
|
96
100
|
|
97
101
|
describe "#update_obj" do
|
data/spec/rating_period_spec.rb
CHANGED
@@ -2,47 +2,36 @@ require 'minitest_helper'
|
|
2
2
|
|
3
3
|
describe Glicko2::RatingPeriod do
|
4
4
|
before do
|
5
|
-
@player =
|
6
|
-
@player1 =
|
7
|
-
@player2 =
|
8
|
-
@player3 =
|
5
|
+
@player = Rating.new(1500, 200, 0.06)
|
6
|
+
@player1 = Rating.new(1400, 30, 0.06)
|
7
|
+
@player2 = Rating.new(1550, 100, 0.06)
|
8
|
+
@player3 = Rating.new(1700, 300, 0.06)
|
9
9
|
@players = [@player, @player1, @player2, @player3]
|
10
|
-
@period = Glicko2::RatingPeriod.
|
10
|
+
@period = Glicko2::RatingPeriod.from_objs(@players)
|
11
11
|
end
|
12
12
|
|
13
|
-
describe "
|
14
|
-
it "must assign players" do
|
15
|
-
@period.players.must_include @player
|
16
|
-
@period.players.must_include @player1
|
17
|
-
@period.players.must_include @player2
|
18
|
-
@period.players.must_include @player3
|
19
|
-
end
|
20
|
-
end
|
21
|
-
|
22
|
-
describe ".ranks_to_score" do
|
23
|
-
it "must return 1.0 when rank is less" do
|
24
|
-
Glicko2::RatingPeriod.ranks_to_score(1, 2).must_equal 1.0
|
25
|
-
end
|
26
|
-
|
27
|
-
it "must return 0.5 when rank is equal" do
|
28
|
-
Glicko2::RatingPeriod.ranks_to_score(1, 1).must_equal 0.5
|
29
|
-
end
|
30
|
-
|
31
|
-
it "must return 0.0 when rank is more" do
|
32
|
-
Glicko2::RatingPeriod.ranks_to_score(2, 1).must_equal 0.0
|
33
|
-
end
|
34
|
-
end
|
35
|
-
|
36
|
-
describe "complete rating period" do
|
13
|
+
describe "#generate_next" do
|
37
14
|
it "must be close to example" do
|
38
15
|
@period.game([@player, @player1], [1, 2])
|
39
16
|
@period.game([@player, @player2], [2, 1])
|
40
17
|
@period.game([@player, @player3], [2, 1])
|
41
18
|
@period.generate_next.players.each { |p| p.update_obj }
|
42
|
-
obj = @player
|
19
|
+
obj = @player
|
43
20
|
obj.rating.must_be_close_to 1464.06, 0.01
|
44
21
|
obj.rating_deviation.must_be_close_to 151.52, 0.01
|
45
22
|
obj.volatility.must_be_close_to 0.05999, 0.00001
|
46
23
|
end
|
24
|
+
|
25
|
+
it "must process non-competing players" do
|
26
|
+
@period.game([@player, @player1], [1, 2])
|
27
|
+
@period.generate_next
|
28
|
+
end
|
29
|
+
|
30
|
+
bench_performance_linear "default" do |n|
|
31
|
+
n.times do
|
32
|
+
@period.game(@players.sample(2), [1, 2])
|
33
|
+
end
|
34
|
+
@period.generate_next
|
35
|
+
end
|
47
36
|
end
|
48
37
|
end
|
data/spec/util_spec.rb
ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
|
|
1
|
+
require 'minitest_helper'
|
2
|
+
|
3
|
+
describe Glicko2::Util do
|
4
|
+
describe ".ranks_to_score" do
|
5
|
+
it "must return 1.0 when rank is less" do
|
6
|
+
Glicko2::Util.ranks_to_score(1, 2).must_equal 1.0
|
7
|
+
end
|
8
|
+
|
9
|
+
it "must return 0.5 when rank is equal" do
|
10
|
+
Glicko2::Util.ranks_to_score(1, 1).must_equal 0.5
|
11
|
+
end
|
12
|
+
|
13
|
+
it "must return 0.0 when rank is more" do
|
14
|
+
Glicko2::Util.ranks_to_score(2, 1).must_equal 0.0
|
15
|
+
end
|
16
|
+
end
|
17
|
+
end
|
metadata
CHANGED
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
|
|
1
1
|
--- !ruby/object:Gem::Specification
|
2
2
|
name: glicko2
|
3
3
|
version: !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
4
|
-
version: 0.0
|
4
|
+
version: 0.1.0
|
5
5
|
prerelease:
|
6
6
|
platform: ruby
|
7
7
|
authors:
|
@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ authors:
|
|
9
9
|
autorequire:
|
10
10
|
bindir: bin
|
11
11
|
cert_chain: []
|
12
|
-
date: 2012-12-
|
12
|
+
date: 2012-12-26 00:00:00.000000000 Z
|
13
13
|
dependencies:
|
14
14
|
- !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
|
15
15
|
name: minitest
|
@@ -41,10 +41,13 @@ files:
|
|
41
41
|
- Rakefile
|
42
42
|
- glicko2.gemspec
|
43
43
|
- lib/glicko2.rb
|
44
|
+
- lib/glicko2/player.rb
|
45
|
+
- lib/glicko2/rating_period.rb
|
44
46
|
- lib/glicko2/version.rb
|
45
47
|
- spec/minitest_helper.rb
|
46
48
|
- spec/player_spec.rb
|
47
49
|
- spec/rating_period_spec.rb
|
50
|
+
- spec/util_spec.rb
|
48
51
|
homepage: https://github.com/proglottis/glicko2
|
49
52
|
licenses: []
|
50
53
|
post_install_message:
|
@@ -73,3 +76,5 @@ test_files:
|
|
73
76
|
- spec/minitest_helper.rb
|
74
77
|
- spec/player_spec.rb
|
75
78
|
- spec/rating_period_spec.rb
|
79
|
+
- spec/util_spec.rb
|
80
|
+
has_rdoc:
|