commonmeta-ruby 3.2.14 → 3.3

data/spec/fixtures/vcr_cassettes/Commonmeta_Metadata/get_json_feed_item_metadata/substack_post_with_broken_reference.yml

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+      string: '{"id":"https://doi.org/10.59350/bbcsr-r4b59","uuid":"2b105b29-acbc-4eae-9ff1-368803f36a4d","url":"https://markrubin.substack.com/p/the-preregistration-prescriptiveness","title":"The
+        Preregistration Prescriptiveness Trade-Off and Unknown Unknowns in Science","summary":"Comments
+        on Van Drimmelen (2023)","date_published":"2023-06-06T21:22:00Z","date_modified":null,"date_indexed":"2023-06-17T17:51:53.479476+00:00","authors":[{"url":null,"name":"Mark
+        Rubin"}],"image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/195477de-91ce-4a76-bae8-b6334fb5bcc7_500x379.jpeg","content_html":"<h4>Abstract</h4><p>I
+        discuss Van Drimmelen&#8217;s (2023) Metascience2023 presentation on researchers&#8217;
+        decision making during the research process. In particular, I consider his
+        evidence that researchers&#8217; discretion over research decisions is unavoidable
+        when they follow research plans that are either overdetermined (i.e., too
+        prescriptive) or underdetermined (i.e., too vague). I argue that this evidence
+        points to a <em>prescriptiveness trade-off</em> when writing preregistered
+        plans: All other things being equal, plans that are more prescriptive are
+        more likely to result in deviations that turn their confirmatory tests into
+        exploratory tests, and plans that are less prescriptive are more likely to
+        result in confirmatory tests that are susceptible to questionable research
+        practices. I also consider Van Drimmelen&#8217;s idea that researchers may
+        make unconscious, implicit decisions during the research process. I relate
+        these implicit decisions to Rumsfeld&#8217;s (2002) concept of <em>unknown
+        unknowns</em>: &#8220;the things we don&#8217;t know we don&#8217;t know&#8221;!
+        I argue that scientists can report their <em>known knowns</em> (what they
+        know they did and found), and they can be transparent and speculative about
+        their <em>known unknowns</em> (what they know they didn&#8217;t do and may
+        find), but that they can&#8217;t say much about their <em>unknown unknowns
+        </em>(including their unconscious, implicit decisions) because, by definition,
+        they don&#8217;t know what they are! Nonetheless, I think that it&#8217;s
+        important to acknowledge unknown unknowns in science because doing so helps
+        to contextualise research efforts as being highly tentative and fallible.</p><h4>Introduction</h4><p>The
+        videos of the presentations at the Metascience2023 conference were recently
+        made available <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLChfyH8TVDGlPTcKrVboBaf6QAGSJt1hQ\">here</a>.
+        One that caught my eye is by Tom van Drimmelen, titled &#8220;Researchers&#8217;
+        decision making: Navigating ambiguity in research practice&#8221;: </p><div
+        id=\"youtube2-5omWDTPcsNo\" class=\"youtube-wrap\" data-attrs=\"{\"videoId\":\"5omWDTPcsNo\",\"startTime\":null,\"endTime\":null}\"
+        data-component-name=\"Youtube2ToDOM\"><div class=\"youtube-inner\"><iframe
+        src=\"https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/5omWDTPcsNo?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0\"
+        frameborder=\"0\" loading=\"lazy\" gesture=\"media\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen\"
+        allowautoplay=\"true\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" width=\"728\" height=\"409\"></iframe></div></div><p>Here,
+        I summarise Van Drimmelen&#8217;s excellent work and share my thoughts on
+        his ideas.</p><h4>What is Researcher Discretion?</h4><p>Van Drimmelen (2023)
+        explained that, during the research process, researchers have discretion over
+        numerous decisions that they make about their methodology and analyses. During
+        the data analysis stage, this <em>researcher discretion</em> may be perceived
+        negatively as <em>researcher degrees of freedom</em> that is susceptible to
+        <em>researcher bias</em> and <em>questionable research practices</em> (John
+        et al., 2012; Simmons et al., 2011).</p><div class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><a
+        class=\"image-link is-viewable-img image2\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png\"
+        data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\"><div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source
+        type=\"image/webp\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
+        424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+        1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
+        1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"><img src=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png\"
+        width=\"1430\" height=\"759\" data-attrs=\"{\"src\":\"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png\",\"fullscreen\":null,\"imageSize\":null,\"height\":759,\"width\":1430,\"resizeWidth\":null,\"bytes\":511459,\"alt\":null,\"title\":null,\"type\":\"image/png\",\"href\":null,\"belowTheFold\":false,\"topImage\":true,\"internalRedirect\":null}\"
+        class=\"sizing-normal\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
+        424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+        1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
+        1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\" fetchpriority=\"high\"></picture><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><svg
+        xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0
+        0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#FFFFFF\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"
+        stroke-linejoin=\"round\" class=\"lucide lucide-maximize2\"><polyline points=\"15
+        3 21 3 21 9\"></polyline><polyline points=\"9 21 3 21 3 15\"></polyline><line
+        x1=\"21\" x2=\"14\" y1=\"3\" y2=\"10\"></line><line x1=\"3\" x2=\"10\" y1=\"21\"
+        y2=\"14\"></line></svg></div></div></a><figcaption class=\"image-caption\"><em>Figure
+        1. </em>Tom van Drimmelen illustrates the numerous decisions that researchers
+        make during the research process.</figcaption></figure></div><h4>Researcher
+        Discretion Emerges in Both Over- and Under-Determined Research Plans</h4><p>In
+        theory, it is possible to reduce and/or reveal researcher discretion during
+        data analyses by preregistering one or more methodological and analytical
+        research paths. However, Van Drimmelen (2023) and colleagues were interested
+        in how researcher discretion operates <em>in practice</em>. To investigate,
+        they conducted an ethnographic study in which they observed researcher discretion
+        in two different research groups. They found that researcher discretion emerged
+        when researchers used two categories of research plan.</p><p>1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
+        <em>Underdetermined plans</em>: Researcher discretion emerged when research
+        plans were not precise enough to determine specific actions for the researchers.
+        In this case, researchers needed to use their own discretion to fill in the
+        gaps of the research plan and figure out how to proceed. Researchers often
+        find themselves in this situation because preregistered research plans are
+        often vague (e.g., Bakker et al., 2020; Heirene et al., 2021; Van den Akker
+        et al., 2023).</p><p>2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <em>Overdetermined plans</em>:
+        Researcher discretion also emerged when there were unforeseen changes in the
+        research situation that made the original research plan undesirable or impossible,
+        necessitating an alternative research approach. Again, this situation is common,
+        because most researchers do not possess &#8220;godlike planning abilities&#8221;
+        (Navarro, 2020). To attempt to address this issue, researchers can preregister
+        &#8220;if&#8230;then&#8221; contingencies (i.e., decision trees) that accommodate
+        <em>anticipated</em> changes in the research situation (Nosek et al., 2018,
+        p. 2602). In addition, it may be possible to update a preregistered analysis
+        plan prior to the data analysis in order to take account of <em>unanticipated</em>
+        events (Nosek et al., 2019, p. 817). However, it is often the case that <em>unanticipated</em>
+        events arise <em>during data analyses</em>. As Reinhart (2015, p. 95) explained
+        (paraphrasing Helmuth von Moltke), &#8220;no analysis plan survives contact
+        with the data.&#8221; In these cases, researchers either need to stick to
+        an inadequate preregistered analysis plan or deviate and adapt their approach
+        to address the current situation. The evidence shows that researchers often
+        deviate from their preregistered plans (e.g., Abrams et al., 2020; Claesen
+        et al., 2021; Heirene et al., 2021).</p><h4>A Prescriptiveness Trade-Off in
+        Preregistered Plans</h4><p>Van Drimmelen&#8217;s (2023) work shows us that
+        researchers are forced to either deviate from overdetermined plans to overcome
+        unforeseen events or fill in the gaps of vague, underdetermined plans. Hence,
+        researcher discretion emerges in the case of both over- and under-determined
+        plans. As Van Drimmelen (2023) put it, &#8220;researcher discretion is an
+        integral and unavoidable part of the research practice.&#8221;</p><p>I think
+        Van Drimmelen&#8217;s (2023) evidence also points to a trade-off between the
+        prescriptiveness of preregistered research plans and the feasibility of their
+        implementation in an unpredictable world. As preregistered plans become more
+        precise and prescriptive, there is a greater chance that researchers will
+        need to deviate from them in order to accommodate unforeseen and/or uncontrolled
+        events that occur during the implementation of the plan. For example, researchers
+        are more likely to deviate from a plan to test &#8220;300 participants&#8221;
+        than they are to deviate from a less prescriptive plan to test &#8220;<em>around</em>
+        300 participants,&#8221; because uncontrolled events (e.g., the number of
+        participant exclusions during data analysis) may result in a final sample
+        size that is only close to 300 participants and not exactly 300 participants
+        (e.g., Claesen et al., 2021, pp. 6-7). Consequently, as preregistered plans
+        become more prescriptive, they are more likely to result in deviations that
+        turn their planned confirmatory tests into unplanned exploratory tests.<sup>1</sup>
+        Of course, preregistration continues to distinguish between confirmatory and
+        exploratory tests in this situation, and it prevents exploratory tests from
+        being falsely portrayed as confirmatory tests. Nonetheless, it remains the
+        case that, as plans for confirmatory tests become more prescriptive, the actual
+        implementation of these confirmatory tests in the real world becomes less
+        likely.</p><p>On the other hand, as preregistered plans become vaguer and
+        less prescriptive, confirmatory hypothesis tests will become not only more
+        feasible to achieve without deviation, but also more susceptible to researcher
+        degrees of freedom and questionable research practices. For example, it is
+        more feasible to test &#8220;<em>around</em> 300 participants&#8221; than
+        to test exactly &#8220;300 participants.&#8221; However, the first sampling
+        plan does not prevent the questionable research practice of optional stopping
+        (John et al., 2021; Simmons et al., 2011), whereas the second, more prescriptive
+        plan does.</p><p>In summary, researchers need to consider a <em>prescriptiveness
+        trade-off </em>when writing their preregistered plans: All other things being
+        equal, plans that are more prescriptive are more likely to result in deviations
+        that turn their confirmatory tests into exploratory tests, and plans that
+        are less prescriptive are more likely to result in confirmatory tests that
+        are susceptible to questionable research practices. Hence, researchers face
+        a difficult choice between prescriptive confirmatory tests that they are less
+        likely to carry out in practice and vague confirmatory tests that are more
+        prone to questionable research practices.</p><div class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><a
+        class=\"image-link is-viewable-img image2\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg\"
+        data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\"><div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source
+        type=\"image/webp\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
+        424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
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+        1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"><img src=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg\"
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+        class=\"sizing-normal\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
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+        1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
+        1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\" loading=\"lazy\"></picture><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><svg
+        xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0
+        0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#FFFFFF\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"
+        stroke-linejoin=\"round\" class=\"lucide lucide-maximize2\"><polyline points=\"15
+        3 21 3 21 9\"></polyline><polyline points=\"9 21 3 21 3 15\"></polyline><line
+        x1=\"21\" x2=\"14\" y1=\"3\" y2=\"10\"></line><line x1=\"3\" x2=\"10\" y1=\"21\"
+        y2=\"14\"></line></svg></div></div></a></figure></div><h4>Researchers Sometimes
+        Make Implicit Decisions</h4><p>Van Drimmelen and colleagues (2023) also identified
+        another interesting issue in their work. At times, they found it difficult
+        to identify researcher discretion because there were multiple potential methodological
+        or analytical approaches available that researchers did not consider. In other
+        words, sometimes <em>researchers</em> <em>were not aware that they were making
+        decisions</em>!</p><p>This idea of unconscious and implicit research decisions
+        reminds me of something that Donald Rumsfeld, the United States Secretary
+        of Defence, said at a press briefing in 2002:</p><blockquote><p>There are
+        known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known
+        unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But
+        there are also unknown unknowns&#8212;the ones we don&#8217;t know we don&#8217;t
+        know. (Wikipedia, 2023)</p></blockquote><p>In the context of Figure 1, our
+        <em>known knowns</em> are the path or paths that we reported following in
+        our research (e.g., the green paths). In these cases, we know what we did,
+        and we know what we found as a result. In contrast, our <em>known unknowns</em>
+        are the paths that we actively decided not to follow (e.g., all the other
+        paths in Figure 1). We know these paths exist, but we don&#8217;t yet know
+        what results lie at the end of them.</p><p>But what about our <em>unknown
+        unknowns</em>? These paths don&#8217;t appear in Figure 1! They relate to
+        decisions that we didn&#8217;t even consider, at least not at a conscious
+        level. For example, we may not have considered the time of day of testing,
+        the ambient temperature, or a host of other unspecified variables that may
+        be influential on our results. Instead, we unconsciously relegated these unknown
+        unknowns to a <em>ceteris paribus</em> clause (i.e., &#8220;all other things
+        being equal&#8221;), which assumes that no other influential factors are at
+        play (Meehl, 1990). The problem is that our unconscious and implicit decision
+        to assume the irrelevance of these factors may be wrong! Indeed, the history
+        of science is full of cases in which factors that were not initially considered
+        to be important subsequently turned out to be crucial moderators or boundary
+        conditions of effects (for some examples, see Firestein, 2016).</p><div class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><a
+        class=\"image-link is-viewable-img image2\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg\"
+        data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\"><div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source
+        type=\"image/webp\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
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+        class=\"sizing-normal\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
+        1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\" loading=\"lazy\"></picture><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><svg
+        xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0
+        0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#FFFFFF\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"
+        stroke-linejoin=\"round\" class=\"lucide lucide-maximize2\"><polyline points=\"15
+        3 21 3 21 9\"></polyline><polyline points=\"9 21 3 21 3 15\"></polyline><line
+        x1=\"21\" x2=\"14\" y1=\"3\" y2=\"10\"></line><line x1=\"3\" x2=\"10\" y1=\"21\"
+        y2=\"14\"></line></svg></div></div></a></figure></div><h4>We Can&#8217;t Be
+        Transparent About Unknown Unknowns, But We Should Acknowledge They Exist!</h4><p>Van
+        Drimmelen (2023) concluded that &#8220;we might not be able to be effectively
+        transparent because <em>we don&#8217;t know which decisions we&#8217;ve actually
+        made</em>&#8221; (my emphasis). In other words, our lack of awareness about
+        our potentially important implicit decisions means that we can&#8217;t be
+        transparent about them: We can report our known knowns, and we can be transparent
+        and speculative about our known unknowns, but we can&#8217;t say much about
+        our unknown unknowns because we don&#8217;t know what they are! By definition,
+        as soon as we start to speculate on a potentially influential factor in our
+        research, it becomes a <em>known</em> unknown about which we need to make
+        conscious decisions!</p><p>Despite our inability to specify our unknown unknowns,
+        Van Drimmelen&#8217;s (2023) work reminds us that it&#8217;s important to
+        acknowledge this type of ignorance in science because it helps to contextualise
+        our research efforts as being highly tentative and fallible steps in a collective
+        process of discovery and theory development. Acknowledging our unknown unknowns
+        also helps to address recent calls for greater intellectual humility and modesty
+        in science (Hoekstra & Vazire, 2021; Ramsey, 2021).</p><p>I&#8217;ll end with
+        a nice example of scientists acknowledging unknown unknowns. Here&#8217;s
+        Errington et al. (2021, p. 12) discussing the challenges of assessing replicability
+        in preclinical cancer biology:</p><blockquote><p>It might also be that, in
+        some cases, a failure to replicate was caused by the replication team deviating
+        from the protocol in some way that was not recognized, or that a key part
+        of the procedure was left out of the protocol inadvertently. It is also possible
+        that the effect reported in the original paper depended on methodological
+        factors that were not identified by original authors, the replication team,
+        or any other experts involved in the peer review of the original paper or
+        the Registered Report.</p></blockquote><h4>References</h4><p>Abrams, E., Libgober,
+        J., & List, J. A. (2020). Research registries: Facts, myths, and possible
+        improvements (No. w27250). <em>National Bureau of Economic Research. </em><a
+        href=\"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27250\">https://doi.org/10.3386/w27250</a></p><p>Bakker,
+        M., Veldkamp, C. L., van Assen, M. A., Crompvoets, E. A., Ong, H. H., Nosek,
+        B. A.,&#8230;& Wicherts, J. M. (2020). Ensuring the quality and specificity
+        of preregistrations. <em>PLoS Biology, 18</em>(12), e3000937. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000937\">https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000937</a></p><p>Claesen,
+        A., Gomes, S., Tuerlinckx, F., Vanpaemel, W., & Leuven, K. U. (2021). Comparing
+        dream to reality: An assessment of adherence of the first generation of preregistered
+        studies. <em>Royal Society Open Science, 8</em>(10), 1&#8211;11. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211037\">https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211037</a></p><p>Errington,
+        T. M., Denis, A., Perfito, N., Iorns, E., & Nosek, B. A. (2021). Reproducibility
+        in cancer biology: Challenges for assessing replicability in preclinical cancer
+        biology. <em>Elife, 10,</em> Article e67995. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67995\">https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67995</a></p><p>Fife,
+        D., & Rodgers, J. L. (2019). Moving beyond the \"replication crisis\": Understanding
+        the exploratory/confirmatory data analysis continuum. <em>PsyArXiv</em>. <a
+        href=\"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5vfq6\">https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5vfq6</a></p><p>Firestein,
+        S. (2016, February 14). Why failure to replicate findings can actually be
+        good for science. <em>LA Times.</em> <a href=\"https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0214-firestein-science-replication-failure-20160214-story.html\">https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0214-firestein-science-replication-failure-20160214-story.html</a></p><p>Heirene,
+        R., LaPlante, D., Louderback, E. R., Keen, B., Bakker, M., Serafimovska, A.,
+        & Gainsbury, S. M. (2021). Preregistration specificity & adherence: A review
+        of preregistered gambling studies & cross-disciplinary comparison. <em>PsyArXiv</em>.
+        <a href=\"https://psyarxiv.com/nj4es/\">https://psyarxiv.com/nj4es/</a></p><p>Hoekstra,
+        R., & Vazire, S. (2021). Aspiring to greater intellectual humility in science.
+        <em>Nature Human Behaviour, 5</em>(12), 1602-1607. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01203-8\">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01203-8</a></p><p>John,
+        L. K., Loewenstein, G., & Prelec, D. (2012). Measuring the prevalence of questionable
+        research practices with incentives for truth telling. <em>Psychological Science,
+        23</em>(5), 524&#8211;532. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611430953\">https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611430953</a></p><p>Meehl,
+        P. E. (1990). Appraising and amending theories: The strategy of Lakatosian
+        defense and two principles that warrant it. <em>Psychological Inquiry, 1</em>(2),
+        108-141. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327965pli0102_1\">https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327965pli0102_1</a></p><p>Navarro,
+        D. (2020, September 23). Paths in strange spaces: A comment on preregistration.<em>
+        PsycArXiv. </em><a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wxn58\">https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wxn58</a></p><p>Nosek,
+        B. A., Beck, E. D., Campbell, L., Flake, J. K., Hardwicke, T. E., Mellor,
+        D. T., van &#8216;t Veer, A. E., & Vazire, S. (2019). Preregistration is hard,
+        and worthwhile. <em>Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 23,</em> 815&#8211;818.
+        <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2019.07.009\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2019.07.009</a></p><p>Ramsey,
+        R. (2021). A call for greater modesty in psychology and cognitive neuroscience.
+        <em>Collabra: Psychology, 7</em>(1), 24091. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.24091\">https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.24091</a></p><p>Reinhart,
+        A. (2015). <em>Statistics done wrong: The woefully complete guide.</em> No
+        Starch Press.</p><p>Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U. (2011).
+        False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and
+        analysis allows presenting anything as significant. <em>Psychological Science,
+        22(</em>11), 1359&#8211;1366. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1177%20/0956797611417632\">https://doi.org/10.1177
+        /0956797611417632</a></p><p>Van den Akker, O., Bakker, M., van Assen, M. A.
+        L. M., Pennington, C. R., Verweij, L., Elsherif, M. M.,&#8230;Wicherts, J.
+        M. (2023, May 10). The effectiveness of preregistration in psychology: Assessing
+        preregistration strictness and preregistration-study consistency. <em>PsyArXiv</em>.
+        <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/h8xjw\">https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/h8xjw</a></p><p>Van
+        Drimmelen, T., Slagboom, N., Reis, R., Bouter, L., Van der Steen, J. (2023,
+        May 9). <em>Researchers&#8217; decision making: Navigating ambiguity in research
+        practice.</em> Metascience2023, Washington, DC. Abstract: <a href=\"https://metascience.info/events/researchers-decision-making-navigating-ambiguity-in-research-practice/\">https://metascience.info/events/researchers-decision-making-navigating-ambiguity-in-research-practice/</a>
+        Preregistration: <a href=\"https://osf.io/tqwgp/\">https://osf.io/tqwgp/</a></p><p>Wikipedia.
+        (2023, March 16). There are unknown unknowns. <em>Wikipedia</em>. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_unknown_unknowns</p><h4>Endnotes</h4><p>1.&nbsp;Here,
+        I define confirmatory tests as planned tests, and exploratory tests as unplanned
+        tests. This conceptualization is consistent with the frequentist rationale
+        for preregistration, according to which unplanned tests undermine assumptions
+        regarding Type I error rates (Nosek et al., 2019, p. 816). I acknowledge that
+        there are other definitions for &#8220;confirmatory&#8221; and &#8220;exploratory&#8221;,
+        including definitions that view them as existing at opposite ends of a continuum
+        rather than as discrete categories (e.g., Fife & Rodgers, 2019). According
+        to this continuum perspective, larger deviations from preregistered plans
+        result in &#8220;more exploratory&#8221; tests than smaller deviations. I
+        don&#8217;t subscribe to this continuum perspective, because it is unclear
+        how to formally assess some deviations as being &#8220;larger&#8221; or &#8220;smaller&#8221;
+        than others. I agree that research studies can be described as being more
+        confirmatory or exploratory, because they can contain a greater proportion
+        of planned or unplanned tests. However, in my view, the tests themselves can
+        only be either confirmatory or exploratory, because they can only be either
+        planned or unplanned.</p><h4>Acknowledgements</h4><p>I&#8217;m grateful to
+        Tom van Drimmelen for his comments on an earlier version of this article.</p><h4>PDF
+        Download</h4><p>You can download a PDF version of this article <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/3t7pc\">here</a>.</p><h4>Reference</h4><p>The
+        reference for this article is:</p><p>Rubin, M. (2023, June 7). The preregistration
+        prescriptiveness trade-off and unknown unknowns in science: Comments on Van
+        Drimmelen (2023). <em>Critical Metascience: MetaArXiv</em>. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/3t7pc\">https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/3t7pc</a></p><h4>Please
+        Subscribe and/or Share!</h4><p class=\"button-wrapper\" data-attrs=\"{\"url\":\"https://markrubin.substack.com/subscribe?\",\"text\":\"Subscribe
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+        class=\"button primary\" href=\"https://markrubin.substack.com/subscribe?\"><span>Subscribe
+        now</span></a></p><p class=\"button-wrapper\" data-attrs=\"{\"url\":\"https://markrubin.substack.com/p/the-preregistration-prescriptiveness?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share\",\"text\":\"Share\",\"action\":null,\"class\":null}\"
+        data-component-name=\"ButtonCreateButton\"><a class=\"button primary\" href=\"https://markrubin.substack.com/p/the-preregistration-prescriptiveness?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share\"><span>Share</span></a></p>","tags":[],"language":"en","references":[{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27250","key":"ref1"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000937","key":"ref2"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211037","key":"ref3"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.7554/elife.67995","key":"ref4"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5vfq6","key":"ref5"},{"key":"ref6","url":"https://latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0214-firestein-science-replication-failure-20160214-story.html"},{"key":"ref7","url":"https://psyarxiv.com/nj4es"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01203-8","key":"ref8"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611430953","key":"ref9"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327965pli0102_1","key":"ref10"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wxn58","key":"ref11"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2019.07.009","key":"ref12"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.24091","key":"ref13"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177%20/0956797611417632","key":"ref14"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177","key":"ref15"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/h8xjw","key":"ref16"},{"key":"ref17","url":"https://metascience.info/events/researchers-decision-making-navigating-ambiguity-in-research-practice"},{"key":"ref18","url":"https://osf.io/tqwgp"},{"key":"ref19","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_unknown_unknowns"}],"blog_id":"ak4s224","blog":{"id":"ak4s224","title":"Critical
+        Metascience","description":"Critical perspectives in metascience and the philosophy
+        of science relating to open science, science reform, and the replication crisis.","language":"en","favicon":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00187507-ddc5-4baa-9dae-79f9487d8bce_325x325.png","feed_url":"https://markrubin.substack.com/feed","home_page_url":"https://markrubin.substack.com","user_id":"8498eaf6-8c58-4b58-bc15-27eda292b1aa","created_at":"2023-05-31T13:17:43+00:00","indexed_at":"2023-04-20","feed_format":"application/rss+xml","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode","generator":"Substack","category":"Social
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