commonmeta-ruby 3.2.13 → 3.2.15

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+ string: '{"id":"https://doi.org/10.59350/bbcsr-r4b59","uuid":"2b105b29-acbc-4eae-9ff1-368803f36a4d","url":"https://markrubin.substack.com/p/the-preregistration-prescriptiveness","title":"The
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+ Preregistration Prescriptiveness Trade-Off and Unknown Unknowns in Science","summary":"Comments
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+ on Van Drimmelen (2023)","date_published":"2023-06-06T21:22:00Z","date_modified":null,"date_indexed":"2023-06-17T17:51:53.479476+00:00","authors":[{"url":null,"name":"Mark
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+ Rubin"}],"image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/195477de-91ce-4a76-bae8-b6334fb5bcc7_500x379.jpeg","content_html":"<h4>Abstract</h4><p>I
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+ discuss Van Drimmelen&#8217;s (2023) Metascience2023 presentation on researchers&#8217;
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+ decision making during the research process. In particular, I consider his
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+ evidence that researchers&#8217; discretion over research decisions is unavoidable
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+ when they follow research plans that are either overdetermined (i.e., too
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+ prescriptive) or underdetermined (i.e., too vague). I argue that this evidence
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+ points to a <em>prescriptiveness trade-off</em> when writing preregistered
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+ plans: All other things being equal, plans that are more prescriptive are
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+ more likely to result in deviations that turn their confirmatory tests into
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+ exploratory tests, and plans that are less prescriptive are more likely to
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+ result in confirmatory tests that are susceptible to questionable research
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+ practices. I also consider Van Drimmelen&#8217;s idea that researchers may
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+ make unconscious, implicit decisions during the research process. I relate
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+ these implicit decisions to Rumsfeld&#8217;s (2002) concept of <em>unknown
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+ unknowns</em>: &#8220;the things we don&#8217;t know we don&#8217;t know&#8221;!
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+ I argue that scientists can report their <em>known knowns</em> (what they
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+ know they did and found), and they can be transparent and speculative about
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+ their <em>known unknowns</em> (what they know they didn&#8217;t do and may
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+ find), but that they can&#8217;t say much about their <em>unknown unknowns
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+ </em>(including their unconscious, implicit decisions) because, by definition,
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+ they don&#8217;t know what they are! Nonetheless, I think that it&#8217;s
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+ important to acknowledge unknown unknowns in science because doing so helps
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+ to contextualise research efforts as being highly tentative and fallible.</p><h4>Introduction</h4><p>The
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+ videos of the presentations at the Metascience2023 conference were recently
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+ made available <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLChfyH8TVDGlPTcKrVboBaf6QAGSJt1hQ\">here</a>.
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+ One that caught my eye is by Tom van Drimmelen, titled &#8220;Researchers&#8217;
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+ decision making: Navigating ambiguity in research practice&#8221;: </p><div
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+ id=\"youtube2-5omWDTPcsNo\" class=\"youtube-wrap\" data-attrs=\"{\"videoId\":\"5omWDTPcsNo\",\"startTime\":null,\"endTime\":null}\"
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+ data-component-name=\"Youtube2ToDOM\"><div class=\"youtube-inner\"><iframe
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+ src=\"https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/5omWDTPcsNo?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0\"
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+ frameborder=\"0\" loading=\"lazy\" gesture=\"media\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen\"
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+ allowautoplay=\"true\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" width=\"728\" height=\"409\"></iframe></div></div><p>Here,
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+ I summarise Van Drimmelen&#8217;s excellent work and share my thoughts on
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+ his ideas.</p><h4>What is Researcher Discretion?</h4><p>Van Drimmelen (2023)
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+ explained that, during the research process, researchers have discretion over
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+ numerous decisions that they make about their methodology and analyses. During
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+ the data analysis stage, this <em>researcher discretion</em> may be perceived
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+ negatively as <em>researcher degrees of freedom</em> that is susceptible to
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+ <em>researcher bias</em> and <em>questionable research practices</em> (John
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+ et al., 2012; Simmons et al., 2011).</p><div class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><a
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+ class=\"image-link is-viewable-img image2\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png\"
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+ data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\"><div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source
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+ type=\"image/webp\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+ 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+ 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+ 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+ 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"><img src=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png\"
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+ width=\"1430\" height=\"759\" data-attrs=\"{\"src\":\"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png\",\"fullscreen\":null,\"imageSize\":null,\"height\":759,\"width\":1430,\"resizeWidth\":null,\"bytes\":511459,\"alt\":null,\"title\":null,\"type\":\"image/png\",\"href\":null,\"belowTheFold\":false,\"topImage\":true,\"internalRedirect\":null}\"
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+ class=\"sizing-normal\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+ 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+ 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+ 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6f03976-0133-406f-8572-cdbcbbdc3aef_1430x759.png
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+ 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\" fetchpriority=\"high\"></picture><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><svg
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+ xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0
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+ 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#FFFFFF\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"
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+ stroke-linejoin=\"round\" class=\"lucide lucide-maximize2\"><polyline points=\"15
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+ 3 21 3 21 9\"></polyline><polyline points=\"9 21 3 21 3 15\"></polyline><line
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+ x1=\"21\" x2=\"14\" y1=\"3\" y2=\"10\"></line><line x1=\"3\" x2=\"10\" y1=\"21\"
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+ y2=\"14\"></line></svg></div></div></a><figcaption class=\"image-caption\"><em>Figure
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+ 1. </em>Tom van Drimmelen illustrates the numerous decisions that researchers
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+ make during the research process.</figcaption></figure></div><h4>Researcher
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+ Discretion Emerges in Both Over- and Under-Determined Research Plans</h4><p>In
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+ theory, it is possible to reduce and/or reveal researcher discretion during
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+ data analyses by preregistering one or more methodological and analytical
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+ research paths. However, Van Drimmelen (2023) and colleagues were interested
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+ in how researcher discretion operates <em>in practice</em>. To investigate,
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+ they conducted an ethnographic study in which they observed researcher discretion
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+ in two different research groups. They found that researcher discretion emerged
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+ when researchers used two categories of research plan.</p><p>1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
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+ <em>Underdetermined plans</em>: Researcher discretion emerged when research
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+ plans were not precise enough to determine specific actions for the researchers.
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+ In this case, researchers needed to use their own discretion to fill in the
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+ gaps of the research plan and figure out how to proceed. Researchers often
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+ find themselves in this situation because preregistered research plans are
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+ often vague (e.g., Bakker et al., 2020; Heirene et al., 2021; Van den Akker
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+ et al., 2023).</p><p>2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <em>Overdetermined plans</em>:
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+ Researcher discretion also emerged when there were unforeseen changes in the
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+ research situation that made the original research plan undesirable or impossible,
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+ necessitating an alternative research approach. Again, this situation is common,
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+ because most researchers do not possess &#8220;godlike planning abilities&#8221;
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+ (Navarro, 2020). To attempt to address this issue, researchers can preregister
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+ &#8220;if&#8230;then&#8221; contingencies (i.e., decision trees) that accommodate
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+ <em>anticipated</em> changes in the research situation (Nosek et al., 2018,
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+ p. 2602). In addition, it may be possible to update a preregistered analysis
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+ plan prior to the data analysis in order to take account of <em>unanticipated</em>
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+ events (Nosek et al., 2019, p. 817). However, it is often the case that <em>unanticipated</em>
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+ events arise <em>during data analyses</em>. As Reinhart (2015, p. 95) explained
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+ (paraphrasing Helmuth von Moltke), &#8220;no analysis plan survives contact
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+ with the data.&#8221; In these cases, researchers either need to stick to
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+ an inadequate preregistered analysis plan or deviate and adapt their approach
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+ to address the current situation. The evidence shows that researchers often
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+ deviate from their preregistered plans (e.g., Abrams et al., 2020; Claesen
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+ et al., 2021; Heirene et al., 2021).</p><h4>A Prescriptiveness Trade-Off in
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+ Preregistered Plans</h4><p>Van Drimmelen&#8217;s (2023) work shows us that
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+ researchers are forced to either deviate from overdetermined plans to overcome
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+ unforeseen events or fill in the gaps of vague, underdetermined plans. Hence,
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+ researcher discretion emerges in the case of both over- and under-determined
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+ plans. As Van Drimmelen (2023) put it, &#8220;researcher discretion is an
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+ integral and unavoidable part of the research practice.&#8221;</p><p>I think
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+ Van Drimmelen&#8217;s (2023) evidence also points to a trade-off between the
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+ prescriptiveness of preregistered research plans and the feasibility of their
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+ implementation in an unpredictable world. As preregistered plans become more
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+ precise and prescriptive, there is a greater chance that researchers will
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+ need to deviate from them in order to accommodate unforeseen and/or uncontrolled
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+ events that occur during the implementation of the plan. For example, researchers
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+ are more likely to deviate from a plan to test &#8220;300 participants&#8221;
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+ than they are to deviate from a less prescriptive plan to test &#8220;<em>around</em>
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+ 300 participants,&#8221; because uncontrolled events (e.g., the number of
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+ participant exclusions during data analysis) may result in a final sample
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+ size that is only close to 300 participants and not exactly 300 participants
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+ (e.g., Claesen et al., 2021, pp. 6-7). Consequently, as preregistered plans
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+ become more prescriptive, they are more likely to result in deviations that
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+ turn their planned confirmatory tests into unplanned exploratory tests.<sup>1</sup>
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+ Of course, preregistration continues to distinguish between confirmatory and
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+ exploratory tests in this situation, and it prevents exploratory tests from
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+ being falsely portrayed as confirmatory tests. Nonetheless, it remains the
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+ case that, as plans for confirmatory tests become more prescriptive, the actual
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+ implementation of these confirmatory tests in the real world becomes less
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+ likely.</p><p>On the other hand, as preregistered plans become vaguer and
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+ less prescriptive, confirmatory hypothesis tests will become not only more
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+ feasible to achieve without deviation, but also more susceptible to researcher
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+ degrees of freedom and questionable research practices. For example, it is
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+ more feasible to test &#8220;<em>around</em> 300 participants&#8221; than
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+ to test exactly &#8220;300 participants.&#8221; However, the first sampling
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+ plan does not prevent the questionable research practice of optional stopping
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+ (John et al., 2021; Simmons et al., 2011), whereas the second, more prescriptive
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+ plan does.</p><p>In summary, researchers need to consider a <em>prescriptiveness
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+ trade-off </em>when writing their preregistered plans: All other things being
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+ equal, plans that are more prescriptive are more likely to result in deviations
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+ that turn their confirmatory tests into exploratory tests, and plans that
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+ are less prescriptive are more likely to result in confirmatory tests that
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+ are susceptible to questionable research practices. Hence, researchers face
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+ a difficult choice between prescriptive confirmatory tests that they are less
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+ likely to carry out in practice and vague confirmatory tests that are more
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+ prone to questionable research practices.</p><div class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><a
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+ class=\"image-link is-viewable-img image2\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg\"
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+ data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\"><div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source
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+ type=\"image/webp\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
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+ 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
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+ 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
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+ 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
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+ 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\"><img src=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg\"
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+ class=\"sizing-normal\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
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+ 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
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+ 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
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+ 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26ad757c-146e-4d8f-88a5-f34cf5c71c58_500x756.jpeg
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+ 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\" loading=\"lazy\"></picture><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><svg
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+ xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0
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+ 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#FFFFFF\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"
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+ stroke-linejoin=\"round\" class=\"lucide lucide-maximize2\"><polyline points=\"15
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+ 3 21 3 21 9\"></polyline><polyline points=\"9 21 3 21 3 15\"></polyline><line
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+ x1=\"21\" x2=\"14\" y1=\"3\" y2=\"10\"></line><line x1=\"3\" x2=\"10\" y1=\"21\"
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+ y2=\"14\"></line></svg></div></div></a></figure></div><h4>Researchers Sometimes
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+ Make Implicit Decisions</h4><p>Van Drimmelen and colleagues (2023) also identified
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+ another interesting issue in their work. At times, they found it difficult
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+ to identify researcher discretion because there were multiple potential methodological
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+ or analytical approaches available that researchers did not consider. In other
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+ words, sometimes <em>researchers</em> <em>were not aware that they were making
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+ decisions</em>!</p><p>This idea of unconscious and implicit research decisions
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+ reminds me of something that Donald Rumsfeld, the United States Secretary
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+ of Defence, said at a press briefing in 2002:</p><blockquote><p>There are
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+ known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known
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+ unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But
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+ there are also unknown unknowns&#8212;the ones we don&#8217;t know we don&#8217;t
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+ know. (Wikipedia, 2023)</p></blockquote><p>In the context of Figure 1, our
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+ <em>known knowns</em> are the path or paths that we reported following in
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+ our research (e.g., the green paths). In these cases, we know what we did,
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+ and we know what we found as a result. In contrast, our <em>known unknowns</em>
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+ are the paths that we actively decided not to follow (e.g., all the other
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+ paths in Figure 1). We know these paths exist, but we don&#8217;t yet know
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+ what results lie at the end of them.</p><p>But what about our <em>unknown
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+ unknowns</em>? These paths don&#8217;t appear in Figure 1! They relate to
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+ decisions that we didn&#8217;t even consider, at least not at a conscious
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+ level. For example, we may not have considered the time of day of testing,
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+ the ambient temperature, or a host of other unspecified variables that may
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+ be influential on our results. Instead, we unconsciously relegated these unknown
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+ unknowns to a <em>ceteris paribus</em> clause (i.e., &#8220;all other things
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+ being equal&#8221;), which assumes that no other influential factors are at
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+ play (Meehl, 1990). The problem is that our unconscious and implicit decision
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+ to assume the irrelevance of these factors may be wrong! Indeed, the history
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+ of science is full of cases in which factors that were not initially considered
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+ to be important subsequently turned out to be crucial moderators or boundary
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+ conditions of effects (for some examples, see Firestein, 2016).</p><div class=\"captioned-image-container\"><figure><a
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+ class=\"image-link is-viewable-img image2\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg\"
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+ data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\"><div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source
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+ type=\"image/webp\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
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+ 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
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+ class=\"sizing-normal\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
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+ 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e8d69a-f2c1-4c22-b375-8c5c4fd72689_500x750.jpeg
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+ 1456w\" sizes=\"100vw\" loading=\"lazy\"></picture><div class=\"image-link-expand\"><svg
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+ xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" viewBox=\"0
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+ 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#FFFFFF\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"
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+ stroke-linejoin=\"round\" class=\"lucide lucide-maximize2\"><polyline points=\"15
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+ 3 21 3 21 9\"></polyline><polyline points=\"9 21 3 21 3 15\"></polyline><line
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252
+ y2=\"14\"></line></svg></div></div></a></figure></div><h4>We Can&#8217;t Be
253
+ Transparent About Unknown Unknowns, But We Should Acknowledge They Exist!</h4><p>Van
254
+ Drimmelen (2023) concluded that &#8220;we might not be able to be effectively
255
+ transparent because <em>we don&#8217;t know which decisions we&#8217;ve actually
256
+ made</em>&#8221; (my emphasis). In other words, our lack of awareness about
257
+ our potentially important implicit decisions means that we can&#8217;t be
258
+ transparent about them: We can report our known knowns, and we can be transparent
259
+ and speculative about our known unknowns, but we can&#8217;t say much about
260
+ our unknown unknowns because we don&#8217;t know what they are! By definition,
261
+ as soon as we start to speculate on a potentially influential factor in our
262
+ research, it becomes a <em>known</em> unknown about which we need to make
263
+ conscious decisions!</p><p>Despite our inability to specify our unknown unknowns,
264
+ Van Drimmelen&#8217;s (2023) work reminds us that it&#8217;s important to
265
+ acknowledge this type of ignorance in science because it helps to contextualise
266
+ our research efforts as being highly tentative and fallible steps in a collective
267
+ process of discovery and theory development. Acknowledging our unknown unknowns
268
+ also helps to address recent calls for greater intellectual humility and modesty
269
+ in science (Hoekstra & Vazire, 2021; Ramsey, 2021).</p><p>I&#8217;ll end with
270
+ a nice example of scientists acknowledging unknown unknowns. Here&#8217;s
271
+ Errington et al. (2021, p. 12) discussing the challenges of assessing replicability
272
+ in preclinical cancer biology:</p><blockquote><p>It might also be that, in
273
+ some cases, a failure to replicate was caused by the replication team deviating
274
+ from the protocol in some way that was not recognized, or that a key part
275
+ of the procedure was left out of the protocol inadvertently. It is also possible
276
+ that the effect reported in the original paper depended on methodological
277
+ factors that were not identified by original authors, the replication team,
278
+ or any other experts involved in the peer review of the original paper or
279
+ the Registered Report.</p></blockquote><h4>References</h4><p>Abrams, E., Libgober,
280
+ J., & List, J. A. (2020). Research registries: Facts, myths, and possible
281
+ improvements (No. w27250). <em>National Bureau of Economic Research. </em><a
282
+ href=\"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27250\">https://doi.org/10.3386/w27250</a></p><p>Bakker,
283
+ M., Veldkamp, C. L., van Assen, M. A., Crompvoets, E. A., Ong, H. H., Nosek,
284
+ B. A.,&#8230;& Wicherts, J. M. (2020). Ensuring the quality and specificity
285
+ of preregistrations. <em>PLoS Biology, 18</em>(12), e3000937. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000937\">https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000937</a></p><p>Claesen,
286
+ A., Gomes, S., Tuerlinckx, F., Vanpaemel, W., & Leuven, K. U. (2021). Comparing
287
+ dream to reality: An assessment of adherence of the first generation of preregistered
288
+ studies. <em>Royal Society Open Science, 8</em>(10), 1&#8211;11. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211037\">https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211037</a></p><p>Errington,
289
+ T. M., Denis, A., Perfito, N., Iorns, E., & Nosek, B. A. (2021). Reproducibility
290
+ in cancer biology: Challenges for assessing replicability in preclinical cancer
291
+ biology. <em>Elife, 10,</em> Article e67995. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67995\">https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67995</a></p><p>Fife,
292
+ D., & Rodgers, J. L. (2019). Moving beyond the \"replication crisis\": Understanding
293
+ the exploratory/confirmatory data analysis continuum. <em>PsyArXiv</em>. <a
294
+ href=\"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5vfq6\">https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5vfq6</a></p><p>Firestein,
295
+ S. (2016, February 14). Why failure to replicate findings can actually be
296
+ good for science. <em>LA Times.</em> <a href=\"https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0214-firestein-science-replication-failure-20160214-story.html\">https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0214-firestein-science-replication-failure-20160214-story.html</a></p><p>Heirene,
297
+ R., LaPlante, D., Louderback, E. R., Keen, B., Bakker, M., Serafimovska, A.,
298
+ & Gainsbury, S. M. (2021). Preregistration specificity & adherence: A review
299
+ of preregistered gambling studies & cross-disciplinary comparison. <em>PsyArXiv</em>.
300
+ <a href=\"https://psyarxiv.com/nj4es/\">https://psyarxiv.com/nj4es/</a></p><p>Hoekstra,
301
+ R., & Vazire, S. (2021). Aspiring to greater intellectual humility in science.
302
+ <em>Nature Human Behaviour, 5</em>(12), 1602-1607. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01203-8\">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01203-8</a></p><p>John,
303
+ L. K., Loewenstein, G., & Prelec, D. (2012). Measuring the prevalence of questionable
304
+ research practices with incentives for truth telling. <em>Psychological Science,
305
+ 23</em>(5), 524&#8211;532. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611430953\">https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611430953</a></p><p>Meehl,
306
+ P. E. (1990). Appraising and amending theories: The strategy of Lakatosian
307
+ defense and two principles that warrant it. <em>Psychological Inquiry, 1</em>(2),
308
+ 108-141. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327965pli0102_1\">https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327965pli0102_1</a></p><p>Navarro,
309
+ D. (2020, September 23). Paths in strange spaces: A comment on preregistration.<em>
310
+ PsycArXiv. </em><a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wxn58\">https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wxn58</a></p><p>Nosek,
311
+ B. A., Beck, E. D., Campbell, L., Flake, J. K., Hardwicke, T. E., Mellor,
312
+ D. T., van &#8216;t Veer, A. E., & Vazire, S. (2019). Preregistration is hard,
313
+ and worthwhile. <em>Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 23,</em> 815&#8211;818.
314
+ <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2019.07.009\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2019.07.009</a></p><p>Ramsey,
315
+ R. (2021). A call for greater modesty in psychology and cognitive neuroscience.
316
+ <em>Collabra: Psychology, 7</em>(1), 24091. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.24091\">https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.24091</a></p><p>Reinhart,
317
+ A. (2015). <em>Statistics done wrong: The woefully complete guide.</em> No
318
+ Starch Press.</p><p>Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U. (2011).
319
+ False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and
320
+ analysis allows presenting anything as significant. <em>Psychological Science,
321
+ 22(</em>11), 1359&#8211;1366. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1177%20/0956797611417632\">https://doi.org/10.1177
322
+ /0956797611417632</a></p><p>Van den Akker, O., Bakker, M., van Assen, M. A.
323
+ L. M., Pennington, C. R., Verweij, L., Elsherif, M. M.,&#8230;Wicherts, J.
324
+ M. (2023, May 10). The effectiveness of preregistration in psychology: Assessing
325
+ preregistration strictness and preregistration-study consistency. <em>PsyArXiv</em>.
326
+ <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/h8xjw\">https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/h8xjw</a></p><p>Van
327
+ Drimmelen, T., Slagboom, N., Reis, R., Bouter, L., Van der Steen, J. (2023,
328
+ May 9). <em>Researchers&#8217; decision making: Navigating ambiguity in research
329
+ practice.</em> Metascience2023, Washington, DC. Abstract: <a href=\"https://metascience.info/events/researchers-decision-making-navigating-ambiguity-in-research-practice/\">https://metascience.info/events/researchers-decision-making-navigating-ambiguity-in-research-practice/</a>
330
+ Preregistration: <a href=\"https://osf.io/tqwgp/\">https://osf.io/tqwgp/</a></p><p>Wikipedia.
331
+ (2023, March 16). There are unknown unknowns. <em>Wikipedia</em>. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_unknown_unknowns</p><h4>Endnotes</h4><p>1.&nbsp;Here,
332
+ I define confirmatory tests as planned tests, and exploratory tests as unplanned
333
+ tests. This conceptualization is consistent with the frequentist rationale
334
+ for preregistration, according to which unplanned tests undermine assumptions
335
+ regarding Type I error rates (Nosek et al., 2019, p. 816). I acknowledge that
336
+ there are other definitions for &#8220;confirmatory&#8221; and &#8220;exploratory&#8221;,
337
+ including definitions that view them as existing at opposite ends of a continuum
338
+ rather than as discrete categories (e.g., Fife & Rodgers, 2019). According
339
+ to this continuum perspective, larger deviations from preregistered plans
340
+ result in &#8220;more exploratory&#8221; tests than smaller deviations. I
341
+ don&#8217;t subscribe to this continuum perspective, because it is unclear
342
+ how to formally assess some deviations as being &#8220;larger&#8221; or &#8220;smaller&#8221;
343
+ than others. I agree that research studies can be described as being more
344
+ confirmatory or exploratory, because they can contain a greater proportion
345
+ of planned or unplanned tests. However, in my view, the tests themselves can
346
+ only be either confirmatory or exploratory, because they can only be either
347
+ planned or unplanned.</p><h4>Acknowledgements</h4><p>I&#8217;m grateful to
348
+ Tom van Drimmelen for his comments on an earlier version of this article.</p><h4>PDF
349
+ Download</h4><p>You can download a PDF version of this article <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/3t7pc\">here</a>.</p><h4>Reference</h4><p>The
350
+ reference for this article is:</p><p>Rubin, M. (2023, June 7). The preregistration
351
+ prescriptiveness trade-off and unknown unknowns in science: Comments on Van
352
+ Drimmelen (2023). <em>Critical Metascience: MetaArXiv</em>. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/3t7pc\">https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/3t7pc</a></p><h4>Please
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+ Subscribe and/or Share!</h4><p class=\"button-wrapper\" data-attrs=\"{\"url\":\"https://markrubin.substack.com/subscribe?\",\"text\":\"Subscribe
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+ class=\"button primary\" href=\"https://markrubin.substack.com/subscribe?\"><span>Subscribe
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+ now</span></a></p><p class=\"button-wrapper\" data-attrs=\"{\"url\":\"https://markrubin.substack.com/p/the-preregistration-prescriptiveness?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share\",\"text\":\"Share\",\"action\":null,\"class\":null}\"
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+ data-component-name=\"ButtonCreateButton\"><a class=\"button primary\" href=\"https://markrubin.substack.com/p/the-preregistration-prescriptiveness?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share\"><span>Share</span></a></p>","tags":[],"language":"en","references":[{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27250","key":"ref1"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000937","key":"ref2"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211037","key":"ref3"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.7554/elife.67995","key":"ref4"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5vfq6","key":"ref5"},{"key":"ref6","url":"https://latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0214-firestein-science-replication-failure-20160214-story.html"},{"key":"ref7","url":"https://psyarxiv.com/nj4es"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01203-8","key":"ref8"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611430953","key":"ref9"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327965pli0102_1","key":"ref10"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/wxn58","key":"ref11"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2019.07.009","key":"ref12"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.24091","key":"ref13"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177%20/0956797611417632","key":"ref14"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177","key":"ref15"},{"doi":"https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/h8xjw","key":"ref16"},{"key":"ref17","url":"https://metascience.info/events/researchers-decision-making-navigating-ambiguity-in-research-practice"},{"key":"ref18","url":"https://osf.io/tqwgp"},{"key":"ref19","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_unknown_unknowns"}],"blog_id":"ak4s224","blog":{"id":"ak4s224","title":"Critical
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+ Metascience","description":"Critical perspectives in metascience and the philosophy
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