calcpace 1.18.1 → 2.1.0

data/README.md

@@ -1,13 +1,15 @@
+<p align="center"><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/0jonjo/calcpace/main/docs/logo.svg" alt="calcpace logo" width="128"></p>
+
 # Calcpace [![Gem Version](https://badge.fury.io/rb/calcpace.svg)](https://badge.fury.io/rb/calcpace)
 
-A Ruby gem for runners: pace, time, and distance calculations, unit conversions, race predictions, GPS track analysis, age grading, VO2max estimation, and training zones.
+A Ruby gem for runners: pace, time, and distance calculations, unit conversions, race predictions (including personalized ones), GPS track analysis with grade-adjusted pace, heat, humidity and altitude adjustments, age grading, VO2max estimation and norms, and training zones.
 
 > **See it in action:** [calcpace.app](https://calcpace.app) — free running calculators, race predictors and a training log, all powered by this gem.
 
 ## Installation
 
 ```ruby
-gem 'calcpace', '~> 1.18.1'
+gem 'calcpace', '~> 2.1'
 ```
 
 ## Usage
@@ -27,7 +29,7 @@ calc.pace(3665, 12)                 # => 305.4  (time / distance)
 calc.time(210, 12)                  # => 2520   (pace × distance)
 calc.distance(9660, 120)            # => 80.5   (velocity × time)
 
-# Clocktime input/output (HH:MM:SS or MM:SS)
+# Clocktime input/output (HH:MM:SS or MM:SS; seconds below 60, and minutes too when hours are given)
 calc.clock_pace('01:00:00', 10)     # => "00:06:00"
 calc.clock_time('00:05:31', 12.6)   # => "01:09:30"
 calc.checked_distance('01:21:32', '00:06:27') # => 12.64
@@ -37,8 +39,50 @@ calc.checked_distance('01:21:32', '00:06:27') # => 12.64
 
 ### Environmental Performance Adjustments
 
-Adjust race performance based on heat and altitude. Calculations are based on scientific models
-(Matthew Ely 2007 for heat, NCAA standards for altitude).
+Adjust race performance based on heat, humidity and altitude. Calculations are based on scientific models
+(El Helou et al. 2012 and Ely et al. 2007 for heat, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's
+simplified WBGT for humidity, NCAA standards for altitude).
+
+- **Altitude**: no penalty up to 300 m, then a linear ramp to the first NCAA point
+  (914.4 m → 1.41%), the NCAA table up to 2438.4 m (5.90%), and an extrapolated
+  curve beyond it (3000 m → 7.92%, 3500 m → 9.97%, 4000 m → 12.2%, capped there).
+  São Paulo (760 m) gets ~1.06%.
+- **Heat**: a 60-minute baseline `4.3 · ((T − 15) / 10)^1.5` (0% at 15 °C,
+  1.52% at 20 °C, 4.3% at 25 °C, 7.9% at 30 °C; extrapolated to 12.16% at
+  35 °C and capped there, so 35–40 °C and hotter all read like 35 °C), stored
+  as points every 2.5 °C, then
+  scaled by effort duration: 0.5× up to 30 min, 1.0× at 60 min, 1.76× at 3 h,
+  2.81× at 4 h and beyond (linear in between, so 1.38× at 2 h). The exponent
+  and the 3 h / 4 h points are fitted to El Helou et al. (2012, Table S3: eight
+  finisher groups, 2:41–4:54, time penalty against 15 °C at 20 and 25 °C,
+  which grows ~2.8× from 20 to 25 °C in every group); the derivation table is
+  in `lib/calcpace/data/environmental_factors.yml`. The 25 °C / 60-minute
+  anchor (4.3%) and the 30/60-minute factors have no direct published source.
+- **Humidity** (optional): pass `humidity:` (relative humidity, %) or
+  `dew_point:` (in `temperature_unit`). Without either, the heat curve assumes
+  50% humidity. With one, the temperature is replaced by the effective
+  temperature that has the same simplified WBGT (`0.567·Ta + 0.393·e + 3.94`)
+  at 50% humidity, and `factors` reports it as `:effective_temperature_celsius`.
+
+| Heat penalty (%) | 20 min | 60 min | 120 min | 180 min | 240 min | 300 min |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| 20 °C | 0.76 | 1.52 | 2.1 | 2.68 | 4.27 | 4.27 |
+| 25 °C | 2.15 | 4.3 | 5.93 | 7.57 | 12.08 | 12.08 |
+| 30 °C | 3.95 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 13.9 | 22.2 | 22.2 |
+| 35 °C | 6.08 | 12.16 | 16.78 | 21.4 | 34.17 | 34.17 |
+| 40 °C | 6.08 | 12.16 | 16.78 | 21.4 | 34.17 | 34.17 |
+
+| 30 °C at | Effective temperature | 60 min | 4 h |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| 30% RH | 26.69 °C | 5.46% | 15.34% |
+| 50% RH (= no humidity) | 30.0 °C | 7.9% | 22.2% |
+| 70% RH | 33.07 °C | 10.46% | 29.39% |
+| 90% RH | 35.94 °C (capped at 35 °C) | 12.16% | 34.17% |
+
+Above ~25 °C the numbers are extrapolations of the fitted curve: the marathon
+studies behind it have no data there (El Helou's hottest race was 25.2 °C). The
+cap at 35 °C is a deliberate choice for the same reason: the uncapped curve gave
+47.77% for 4 h at 40 °C.
 
 ```ruby
 # Calculate penalty for 25°C and 2000m altitude (Defaults to 60-min effort)
@@ -50,25 +94,30 @@ penalty = calc.calculate_penalty(temperature: 25, altitude: 2000)
 
 # Fahrenheit support
 calc.calculate_penalty(temperature: 80, temperature_unit: :f)
-# => { total_penalty_percent: 5.03, ... }
+# => { total_penalty_percent: 5.44, ... }
+
+# Humidity: 30 °C at 90% hits like 35.94 °C at 50% (which reads like the 35 °C cap)
+calc.calculate_penalty(temperature: 30, humidity: 90)[:total_penalty_percent]  # => 12.16
+calc.calculate_penalty(temperature: 30, humidity: 90)[:factors][:effective_temperature_celsius]  # => 35.94
+calc.calculate_penalty(temperature: 86, dew_point: 77, temperature_unit: :f)[:total_penalty_percent]  # => 11.07
 
 # Adjust a 3:30 marathon time (12600s) for these conditions (High exposure penalty)
 result = calc.adjust_time(12600, temperature: 25, altitude: 2000)
 # => {
 #      original_time: 12600,
-#      adjusted_time: 15176.7,
-#      adjusted_time_clock: "04:12:56",
-#      penalty_percent: 20.45,
-#      factors: { heat: 16.13, altitude: 4.32 }
+#      adjusted_time: 14382.9,
+#      adjusted_time_clock: "03:59:42",
+#      penalty_percent: 14.15,
+#      factors: { heat: 9.83, altitude: 4.32 }
 #    }
 
 # Predicted adjusted times (Riegel formula)
 calc.predict_time_adjusted('5k', '00:20:00', '10k', temperature: 28)
-# => { adjusted_time: 2599.74, adjusted_time_clock: "00:43:19", penalty_percent: 3.91, ... }
+# => { adjusted_time: 2613.0, adjusted_time_clock: "00:43:33", penalty_percent: 4.44, ... }
 
 # Predicted adjusted times (Cameron formula)
 calc.predict_time_cameron_adjusted('10k', '00:40:00', 'marathon', temperature: 80, temperature_unit: :f)
-# => { adjusted_time: 11585.88, adjusted_time_clock: "03:13:05", penalty_percent: 14.18, ... }
+# => { adjusted_time: 12400.47, adjusted_time_clock: "03:26:40", penalty_percent: 10.28, ... }
 ```
 
 ---
@@ -139,8 +188,10 @@ calc.race_splits('half_marathon', target_time: '01:30:00', split_distance: '5k')
 # => ["00:21:20", "00:42:40", "01:03:59", "01:25:19", "01:30:00"]
 
 # Strategies: :even (default), :negative (second half faster), :positive (first half faster)
+# :negative runs the first half 1% slower than average pace and the second half 1% faster;
+# :positive is the mirror image. A 3:00:00 marathon splits 1:30:54 + 1:29:06 (:negative).
 calc.race_splits('10k', target_time: '00:40:00', split_distance: '5k', strategy: :negative)
-# => ["00:20:48", "00:40:00"]
+# => ["00:20:12", "00:40:00"]
 
 # The race may be a plain distance too; the last split is always the finish
 calc.race_splits(7.79, target_time: '00:26:59', split_distance: '1k')
@@ -157,14 +208,22 @@ calc.race_splits(7.79, target_time: '00:26:59', split_distance: '1k')
 calc.predict_time_clock('5k', '00:20:00', 'marathon')   # => "03:11:49"
 calc.predict_pace_clock('5k', '00:20:00', 'marathon')   # => "00:04:32"
 calc.equivalent_performance('10k', '00:42:00', '5k')
-# => { time: 1208.67, time_clock: "00:20:08", pace: 241.73, pace_clock: "00:04:01" }
+# => { time: 1208.6727903498331, time_clock: "00:20:08", pace: 241.73455806996662, pace_clock: "00:04:01" }
 ```
 
-**Cameron formula** (exponential correction — tends to be more conservative from short distances):
+**Cameron formula** (Dave Cameron's velocity-ratio model, fitted to world bests from
+800 m to the marathon — more conservative than Riegel when predicting the marathon
+from shorter races):
+
+`T2 = T1 × (D2/D1) × f(D1)/f(D2)`, with `f(d) = 13.49681 − 0.000030363·d + 835.7114 / d^0.7905`
+and `d` in metres (distances are still passed in km or as race names).
+Both distances must be at most `CameronPredictor::CAMERON_MAX_DISTANCE_KM` (100 km):
+the model is fitted up to the marathon and breaks down far beyond it, so longer
+distances raise `ArgumentError`.
 
 ```ruby
-calc.predict_time_cameron_clock('10k', '00:42:00', 'marathon')  # => "02:57:34"
-calc.predict_pace_cameron_clock('10k', '00:42:00', 'marathon')  # => "00:04:12"
+calc.predict_time_cameron_clock('10k', '00:42:00', 'marathon')  # => "03:16:46"
+calc.predict_pace_cameron_clock('10k', '00:42:00', 'marathon')  # => "00:04:39"
 ```
 
 **Any distance, on either end.** Both formulas are arithmetic on two distances,
@@ -173,7 +232,7 @@ so neither end has to be a standard race:
 ```ruby
 # From a 7.79 km club race in 26:59
 calc.predict_time_clock(7.79, '00:26:59', 'half_marathon')          # => "01:17:34"
-calc.predict_time_cameron_clock(7.79, '00:26:59', 'half_marathon')  # => "01:13:44"
+calc.predict_time_cameron_clock(7.79, '00:26:59', 'half_marathon')  # => "01:17:26"
 
 # To an unnamed distance, and between two of them
 calc.predict_time_clock('10k', '00:42:00', 15)    # => "01:04:33"
@@ -198,6 +257,85 @@ the caller's, and it always was, standard race names included.
 
 ---
 
+### Personalized Predictions
+
+**Marathon from training volume** — Tanda (2011), no race result needed. The
+inputs are the mean weekly distance and the mean training pace over the 8 weeks
+ending one week before the race:
+
+```ruby
+calc.predict_marathon_from_training(weekly_distance: 60, training_pace: '05:00')
+# => { time: 11981.88, time_clock: "03:19:41", pace: 283.96, pace_clock: "00:04:43",
+#      within_validated_range: true, out_of_range: [] }
+
+calc.predict_marathon_from_training(weekly_distance: 40, training_pace: '05:30')
+# => { time: 13158.72, time_clock: "03:39:18", pace: 311.86, pace_clock: "00:05:11",
+#      within_validated_range: false, out_of_range: [:weekly_distance, :marathon_time] }
+
+# unit: :mi — weekly miles, pace per mile in and out
+calc.predict_marathon_from_training(weekly_distance: 25, training_pace: '08:00', unit: :mi)[:pace_clock] # => "00:07:53"
+```
+
+The equation is `Pm = 17.1 + 140.0 · exp(−0.0053 · K) + 0.55 · P` (Pm marathon
+pace in s/km, K km/week, P s/km). Training pace is the plain average of every
+run — total time over total distance, warm-ups and easy days included — not the
+pace of the hard sessions. The paper reports a standard error of about 4 minutes.
+`weekly_distance` may be a number or a numeric string (`'60'`); `training_pace`
+is seconds or an `MM:SS` / `HH:MM:SS` string.
+
+It was fitted on 22 experienced runners (21 men) and 46 marathons, so it is only
+validated inside that sample: 40.4–110.7 km/week, training pace 253.3–330.6 s/km (4:13–5:30/km),
+finish 2:47–3:36. Outside it the prediction is still returned, and
+`out_of_range` names what fell outside (`:weekly_distance`, `:training_pace`,
+`:marathon_time`) — a warning, not an error. A low-volume runner at an easy pace
+will usually see all three.
+
+> G. Tanda, "Prediction of marathon performance time on the basis of training
+> indices", *Journal of Human Sport and Exercise* 6(3):511–520, 2011.
+> doi:10.4100/jhse.2011.63.05
+
+**Personal Riegel exponent** — fit the fatigue factor to two of your own races
+instead of the population 1.06:
+
+```ruby
+calc.riegel_exponent('10k', '00:45:00', 'half_marathon', '01:42:00') # => 1.0961
+
+calc.predict_time_personal('10k', '00:45:00', 'half_marathon', '01:42:00', 'marathon')
+# => { time: 13083.04, time_clock: "03:38:03", exponent: 1.0961, raw_exponent: 1.0961, clamped: false }
+```
+
+The standard Riegel gives 3:32:39 from that half and 3:27:00 from that 10K; this
+runner fades more than average, and the personal exponent says so.
+
+When the target lies outside the two races, the prediction extrapolates from
+whichever race is closer to it (in log-distance), with the exponent clamped to
+1.01–1.20:
+
+```ruby
+calc.predict_time_personal('5k', '00:20:00', '10k', '00:50:00', 'half_marathon')
+# => { time: 7348.5, time_clock: "02:02:28", exponent: 1.2, raw_exponent: 1.3219, clamped: true }
+```
+
+When the target lies between them, it interpolates along the curve through both
+performances with the raw exponent, never clamped: the runner's own data
+already brackets the answer, and the result does not depend on which race comes
+first.
+
+```ruby
+calc.predict_time_personal(5, 1200, 20, 3000, 10)[:time] # => 1897.37
+calc.predict_time_personal(20, 3000, 5, 1200, 10)[:time] # => 1897.37
+```
+
+An exponent outside that range — or `clamped: true` — usually means one of the
+two races was not an all-out effort, or was run on a course or day that does
+not compare with the other — the raw exponent in an interpolation
+(0.661 above) is worth the same suspicion. Both races may be names or distances
+in km; two races at the same distance, or a target equal to one of them, raise
+`ArgumentError`. Times are seconds or `HH:MM:SS` / `MM:SS` strings; anything
+else raises `Calcpace::InvalidTimeFormatError`.
+
+---
+
 ### GPS Track Analysis
 
 Accepts an array of hashes with `:lat`, `:lon`, and optionally `:ele` (metres) and `:time` (`Time`):
@@ -238,6 +376,62 @@ in both formats (`"-00:40"` / `"-0:40"`) rather than raising.
 
 **Haversine formula** — great-circle distance on a sphere (R = 6,371 km). Accuracy: ~0.3% of GPS/WGS84. Best for running and cycling distances; not for geodetic surveying.
 
+#### Grade-adjusted pace (GAP)
+
+The flat-ground pace that costs the same energy as a pace run on a slope, from
+the energy cost of running on gradients measured by **Minetti et al. (2002)**.
+The grade is a fraction (rise over horizontal distance): `0.05` is 5% uphill,
+`-0.05` is 5% downhill.
+
+```ruby
+calc.grade_adjustment_factor(0.1)   # => 1.6578372222222222  (a metre at +10% ≈ 1.66 flat metres)
+calc.grade_adjustment_factor(-0.1)  # => 0.5976961111111111
+
+calc.grade_adjusted_pace(360, 0.1)                       # => 217.1503903847952 (s/km)
+calc.grade_adjusted_pace_clock('06:00', 0.1)             # => "00:03:37"
+calc.grade_adjusted_pace_clock('06:00', 0.1, compact: true)  # => "3:37"
+calc.grade_adjusted_pace(480, 0.05, unit: :mi)           # => 368.82127811700303 (s/mi)
+
+# Per-split GAP for a GPS track: the track_splits fields plus :gap
+calc.track_grade_adjusted_splits(points, 1.0)
+# => [{ km: 1.0, elapsed: 415, pace: "06:55", gap: "06:50" },
+#     { km: 1.51, elapsed: 600, pace: "06:04", gap: "06:21" }]
+```
+
+| Grade | −10% | −5% | 0% | +5% | +10% |
+|-------|------|-----|----|-----|------|
+| Factor | 0.598 | 0.763 | 1.000 | 1.301 | 1.658 |
+
+**Formula** (J·kg⁻¹·m⁻¹, R² = 0.999):
+```
+Cr(i)  = 155.4·i⁵ − 30.4·i⁴ − 43.3·i³ + 46.3·i² + 19.5·i + 3.6
+factor = Cr(i) / Cr(0)
+GAP    = pace / factor
+```
+
+- Grades are clamped to **±45%**, the range Minetti et al. measured; nothing
+  is extrapolated beyond it. Running is cheapest near −20% and gets dearer
+  again on steeper descents.
+- It is a metabolic model: it does not see the muscular cost of long descents
+  or technical terrain, and field models fitted to heart rate (Strava's, for
+  instance) are gentler on steep climbs.
+- `track_grade_adjusted_splits` leaves `track_splits` untouched: it returns the
+  same `:km`, `:elapsed` and `:pace` with `:gap` added (formatted like `:pace`,
+  `compact:` applies to both). GPS elevation is noisy, so grades are measured
+  over **grade segments of at least 100 m** of horizontal distance — read
+  between fixes a metre apart, ±2 m of jitter would be a ±400% grade. A short
+  leftover at the end of a stretch joins the segment before it. Stretches
+  between points without `:ele` (or with a NaN/infinite one) count as flat,
+  so a track with no elevation has `:gap` equal to `:pace`; so does a stretch
+  with elevation shorter than 100 m that has no full segment before it to
+  join (between missing fixes, or a whole track that short).
+- Track distances are horizontal (Haversine), and the factor is applied to
+  them without the √(1 + grade²) slope-length correction — 0.5% at 10%.
+- `estimate_detailed_vo2max` keeps its own flat elevation heuristic (100 m of
+  gain = 600 m of flat), so its numbers do not change.
+
+*Minetti, A. E., Moia, C., Roi, G. S., Susta, D., & Ferretti, G. (2002). Energy cost of walking and running at extreme uphill and downhill slopes. Journal of Applied Physiology, 93(3), 1039–1046. https://doi.org/10.1152/japplphysiol.01177.2001*
+
 ---
 
 ### Age Grading (Road Races)
@@ -249,18 +443,18 @@ age factors and open standards.
 result = calc.age_grade(10.0, '00:45:00', age: 55, sex: :male)
 # numeric distances also accepted in miles: calc.age_grade(6.21371, '00:45:00', age: 55, sex: :male, distance_unit: :mi)
 # => {
-#      age_grade_percent: 69.0,
+#      age_grade_percent: 68.9,
 #      category: "Local Class",
-#      age_graded_time_seconds: 2278.26,
-#      age_graded_time_clock: "00:37:58",
-#      open_standard_seconds: 1571.0,
-#      open_standard_clock: "00:26:11",
-#      factor: 0.8438,
-#      table_version: "WMA_2023_ONE_YEAR_FACTORS_V1"
+#      age_graded_time_seconds: 2297.97,
+#      age_graded_time_clock: "00:38:17",
+#      open_standard_seconds: 1584.0,
+#      open_standard_clock: "00:26:24",
+#      factor: 0.8511,
+#      table_version: "MLDR_2025_ROAD_ONE_YEAR_FACTORS_V1"
 #    }
 
-calc.age_grade_percent(5.0, '00:22:30', age: 40, sex: :female) # => 65.2
-calc.age_grade_label(65.2)                                      # => "Local Class"
+calc.age_grade_percent(5.0, '00:22:30', age: 40, sex: :female) # => 65.0
+calc.age_grade_label(65.0)                                      # => "Local Class"
 ```
 
 `category` (and `age_grade_label`) returns one of:
@@ -276,7 +470,7 @@ calc.age_grade_label(65.2)                                      # => "Local Clas
 | 40–49.9% | Recreational |
 | below 40% | Active Beginner |
 
-The WMA / Alan Jones (Howard Grubb) tables are numeric age factors and open
+The Alan Jones road tables are numeric age factors and open
 standards only — they define no categories at all. The bands from Local Class
 (60%) upward follow the USATF Masters / National Masters News convention; the
 three bands below 60% are calcpace's own extension — most recreational
@@ -293,8 +487,8 @@ A numeric distance within **2%** of one of those is graded as that standard —
 a GPS watch rarely reads a 5K as exactly 5.000 km:
 
 ```ruby
-calc.age_grade_percent(5.0,    '00:25:00', age: 40, sex: :male) # => 51.9
-calc.age_grade_percent(5.0374, '00:25:00', age: 40, sex: :male) # => 51.9
+calc.age_grade_percent(5.0,    '00:25:00', age: 40, sex: :male) # => 54.1
+calc.age_grade_percent(5.0374, '00:25:00', age: 40, sex: :male) # => 54.1
 
 calc.age_grade(7.79, '00:26:59', age: 36, sex: :male)
 # => ArgumentError: Unsupported distance 7.79km. Supported: 5.0, 10.0, 21.0975, 42.195 km
@@ -302,20 +496,32 @@ calc.age_grade(7.79, '00:26:59', age: 36, sex: :male)
 
 That refusal is deliberate, and it is where age grading parts ways with the
 predictors above. A prediction is a formula and works at any distance; an age
-grade is a lookup in the WMA table, which publishes a factor per *specific*
+grade is a lookup in the road table, which publishes a factor per *specific*
 distance. There is no world standard for 7.79 km, so there is no honest
 percentage to return — interpolating one would produce a number with the look
 of an official standard and none of the authority.
 
-Age factors are based on WMA 2023 one-year age grading tables:
-https://world-masters-athletics.org/documents/competition-rules/
-
-Open standards used in `open_standard_seconds` / `open_standard_clock` are loaded
-from the bundled WMA 2023 open standards dataset
-(`lib/calcpace/data/wma_2023_open_standards.yml`).
+Age factors and open standards come from Alan Jones' **2025 road** age-grading
+tables, approved on 2025-01-10 by the USATF Masters Long Distance Running
+Council — the standard for road races, the same tables behind Howard Grubb's
+MLDR road calculator. The source spreadsheets are `MaleRoadStd2025.xlsx` and
+`FemaleRoadStd2025.xlsx`, linked here at the commit the bundled data was
+taken from:
+https://github.com/AlanLyttonJones/Age-Grade-Tables/tree/4aac6737cb9f216c90a0a610355667cd3d921c61/2025%20Files
+The bundled data has one factor per year of age from 18 to 100 (older ages use
+the age-100 factor) and lives in `lib/calcpace/data/mldr_2025_road.yml` (factors)
+and `lib/calcpace/data/mldr_2025_road_open_standards.yml` (open standards and
+category labels).
+
+| Distance | Open standard (men) | Open standard (women) |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| 5K | 12:49 | 13:54 |
+| 10K | 26:24 | 28:46 |
+| Half marathon | 57:31 | 1:02:52 |
+| Marathon | 2:00:35 | 2:09:56 |
 
 Field meanings:
-- `age_graded_time_clock`: your result after applying the WMA age factor (normalized performance time).
+- `age_graded_time_clock`: your result after applying the age factor (normalized performance time).
 - `open_standard_clock`: the open standard reference time used to compute the percentage for that distance/sex.
 - `age_grade_percent`: `(open_standard_seconds / age_graded_time_seconds) * 100`.
 
@@ -355,6 +561,49 @@ VO2max           = VO2 / %VO2max
 
 Accuracy: ±3–5 ml/kg/min vs. laboratory testing. Best with efforts between **5 and 60 minutes** at near-maximal pace.
 
+#### By age and sex
+
+The fixed thresholds above are the same for everyone. Give `vo2max_label` an
+age and a sex and it reads the value against people of the same sex and age
+decade instead, using the **FRIEND registry** percentiles of VO2max measured on
+a treadmill (Kaminsky, Arena & Myers, 2015):
+
+```ruby
+calc.vo2max_label(45)                         # => "Good"  (fixed thresholds, unchanged)
+calc.vo2max_label(45, age: 25, sex: :male)    # => "Fair"
+calc.vo2max_label(45, age: 60, sex: :male)    # => "Elite"
+calc.vo2max_label(45, age: 25, sex: :female)  # => "Very Good"
+calc.vo2max_label(45, age: 60, sex: :female)  # => "Elite"
+
+calc.vo2max_percentile(45, age: 25, sex: :male)    # => 40.5
+calc.vo2max_percentile(45, age: 25, sex: :female)  # => 75.7
+calc.vo2max_percentile(45, age: 60, sex: :male)    # => 95.0
+```
+
+| Percentile (same sex and age decade) | Level     |
+|--------------------------------------|-----------|
+| ≥ 95th                               | Elite     |
+| 90th–94th                            | Excellent |
+| 75th–89th                            | Very Good |
+| 50th–74th                            | Good      |
+| 25th–49th                            | Fair      |
+| < 25th                               | Beginner  |
+
+- The cuts sit on percentiles the table publishes (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th,
+  75th, 90th, 95th), so a label never depends on interpolation. They are
+  calcpace's choice: FRIEND publishes percentiles, not labels.
+- `vo2max_percentile` interpolates linearly between the published percentiles,
+  rounded to one decimal, and is bounded to the table: `5.0` means at or below
+  the 5th percentile, `95.0` at or above the 95th.
+- Age decades (20–29 … 70–79) are used as published, without blending, so a
+  29- and a 30-year-old read different rows. Ages 18–19 use the 20–29 row and
+  80+ the 70–79 row; under 18 raises `ArgumentError`, as does a sex other than
+  male/female. Age and sex must be given together.
+- The registry measured VO2max in a lab; a VO2max estimated from a race time
+  carries its own ±3–5 ml/kg/min on top.
+
+*Kaminsky, L. A., Arena, R., & Myers, J. (2015). Reference Standards for Cardiorespiratory Fitness Measured With Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing: Data From the Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise National Database. Mayo Clinic Proceedings, 90(11), 1515–1523, Table 3 (rows "Men/Women from FRIEND"; 7,783 treadmill tests on adults free of known cardiovascular disease). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mayocp.2015.07.026. The same table also lists the Cooper Clinic norms printed in ACSM's Guidelines for Exercise Testing and Prescription (9th ed., 2014); those are predicted from treadmill time rather than measured, and are not used here.*
+
 #### Contextualized estimation
 
 `estimate_detailed_vo2max` returns a richer result that accounts for elevation, heart rate, and formula reliability:
@@ -396,6 +645,32 @@ easy.value        # => 29.3   (underestimates real aerobic capacity)
 > If you provide heart rate data, both `hr_avg` and `hr_max` must be present.
 > `elevation_gain_m` must be zero or positive.
 
+`result.basis` says what set the confidence: `:duration` (the table above), `:heart_rate` (average HR under 85 % of max) or `:declared` (the `effort:` below).
+
+#### Effort
+
+The formula assumes an all-out effort, and duration is only a proxy for that. When the runner knows how hard it was, pass `effort:` — one of `Calcpace::EFFORT_LEVELS`, easiest first (a Symbol or a String):
+
+| `effort` | How it felt | `confidence` | `sub_maximal` |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| `:easy` | Could talk freely | `:low` | `true` |
+| `:moderate` | Short sentences, still comfortable | `:low` | `true` |
+| `:hard` | A few words at a time | duration and heart-rate rules, as without `effort:` | |
+| `:max` | Everything I had: a race or a test | `:high` from 5 min on, however long it took (unless HR < 85 %) | `false` (unless HR < 85 %) |
+| `nil` (default) | — | exactly as in 2.0.0 | |
+
+```ruby
+calc.estimate_detailed_vo2max(42.195, '03:30:00').confidence                # => :low   (over 2 h)
+calc.estimate_detailed_vo2max(42.195, '03:30:00', effort: :max).confidence  # => :high  (a race says it was all-out)
+calc.estimate_detailed_vo2max(10.0, '00:55:00', effort: :easy).sub_maximal  # => true
+calc.estimate_detailed_vo2max(10.0, '00:55:00', effort: :easy).basis        # => :declared
+```
+
+- **The value never changes.** An easy run still gives the number the formula gives, which then reads as "at least this much"; only `confidence`, `sub_maximal` and `basis` move.
+- An easy or moderate effort is sub-maximal whatever the heart rate says. Heart rate under 85 % of max still overrules a declared `:max` (`basis: :heart_rate`), and a `:max` under five minutes keeps the duration rule, where the formula itself is unreliable.
+- Without heart rate, `:hard` and `:max` are not sub-maximal: nothing says they were.
+- An unknown effort raises `Calcpace::InvalidEffortError`.
+
 ---
 
 ### Training Zones
@@ -406,6 +681,7 @@ Personalized training paces (Daniels' Running Formula) and Karvonen heart-rate z
 zones = calc.training_paces(50.0)
 zones[:threshold].fast_clock   # => "00:04:15" per km
 zones[:easy].slow_clock        # => "00:05:52" per km
+zones[:marathon].fast_clock    # => "00:04:31" per km (the VDOT-predicted marathon pace)
 
 calc.training_paces(50.0, unit: :mi)[:threshold].fast_clock  # => "00:06:51" per mile
 
@@ -424,13 +700,21 @@ calc.hr_zones_from_max(hr_max: 190)
 | Zone | %VO2max | Purpose |
 |------|---------|---------|
 | Easy | 59–74% | Base building, recovery |
-| Marathon | 75–84% | Marathon race pace |
+| Marathon | 75% – predicted marathon pace (0.800–0.849) | Marathon race pace |
 | Threshold | 83–88% | Lactate threshold, tempo runs |
 | Interval | 95–100% | VO2max development |
 | Repetition | 105–110% | Speed and running economy |
 
 Pace accuracy vs published VDOT tables: within a few seconds per km
-(threshold matches exactly; easy band is a range heuristic).
+(threshold matches exactly; easy band is a range heuristic). The fast end of the
+marathon band is the marathon pace `predict_time_from_vo2max` gives for the same
+VO2max (Daniels' M pace is the predicted marathon race pace); that prediction
+covers VO2max 10–100, and outside it the race-pace intensity of the nearest bound
+is used. That intensity is 0.800–0.849 of VO2max (0.805 at VO2max 30, 0.830 at 70),
+so the marathon band stays slower than the threshold band below VO2max ~69.5, as in
+Daniels. `TRAINING_INTENSITIES[:marathon][:high]` stays 0.84 as the nominal upper
+bound; `PREDICTED_RACE_PACE_ZONES` lists the zones whose fast end is the predicted
+race pace.
 
 `unit:` sets the unit of the returned pace bands; `distance_unit:` sets the unit of a
 numeric race distance you pass in. Combining `distance_unit:` with a race name raises
@@ -662,6 +946,24 @@ calc.convert_to_clocktime(3600)      # => "01:00:00"
 calc.check_time('01:00:00')          # => nil (valid)
 ```
 
+Every time or pace string the gem reads goes through `convert_to_seconds`, so
+every method reads the same clocks, and every clock the gem writes is among them:
+
+```ruby
+calc.convert_to_seconds('75:00')       # => 4500     (MM:SS keeps counting minutes)
+calc.convert_to_seconds('400:00:00')   # => 1440000  (any number of hours)
+calc.convert_to_seconds('1 03:46:40')  # => 100000   (convert_to_clocktime's day prefix)
+calc.convert_to_seconds('-0:40')       # => -40      (a backwards track_splits split)
+```
+
+Seconds must be two digits below 60, and so must minutes when hours are given;
+after a day prefix the hours are two digits below 24. A leading `-` is the only
+sign, blanks or surrounding whitespace are not trimmed, and the string must be
+in a valid, ASCII-compatible encoding (UTF-8, not UTF-16). Anything else —
+`'05:99'`, `'1:60:00'`, `'1 3:46:40'`, `' 05:00'`, `'abc'` — raises
+`Calcpace::InvalidTimeFormatError`. A negative clock parses, but every method
+that needs a positive time or pace rejects it with `Calcpace::NonPositiveInputError`.
+
 `convert_to_clocktime` takes a `compact:` keyword for the format a runner reads
 on a screen — no zero hour, no leading zero on the most significant component:
 
@@ -687,8 +989,10 @@ call without it returns exactly what it returned before.
 
 All errors inherit from `Calcpace::Error`:
 
-- `Calcpace::NonPositiveInputError` — numeric input is zero or negative
-- `Calcpace::InvalidTimeFormatError` — time string not in `HH:MM:SS` or `MM:SS` format
+- `Calcpace::NonPositiveInputError` — numeric input is zero, negative, NaN or infinite
+- `Calcpace::InvalidTimeFormatError` — time string that is not a clock the gem writes
+  (`[-][D ]H:MM:SS` or `[-]M:SS`, see Other Utilities): seconds must be below 60, and
+  so must minutes when hours are given (`'05:99'` and `'1:60:00'` raise)
 - `Calcpace::UnsupportedUnitError` — unknown conversion (`convert`) or unknown
   `unit:` / `distance_unit:` keyword
 - `Calcpace::InvalidDataError` — the bundled data table failed its load-time
@@ -705,7 +1009,7 @@ unknown race names, unsupported age-grading distances, and invalid `age` / `sex`
 bundle exec rake
 ```
 
-Requires Ruby >= 3.2.0. Tested with Ruby 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, and 4.0.
+Requires Ruby >= 3.3.0. Tested with Ruby 3.3, 3.4, and 4.0.
 
 ## Contributing
 

data/calcpace.gemspec

@@ -8,12 +8,16 @@ Gem::Specification.new do |spec|
   spec.authors       = ['João Gilberto Saraiva']
   spec.email         = ['joaogilberto@tuta.io']
 
-  spec.summary       = 'Running calculations: pace, race predictions, GPS track analysis, VO2max, and training zones.'
+  spec.summary       = 'Running calculations: pace, race predictions, GPS track analysis, ' \
+                       'heat and altitude adjustments, age grading, VO2max, and training zones.'
   spec.description   = 'Ruby gem for runners: pace, time, and distance calculations, ' \
-                       'unit conversions (30+ units), race time predictions (Riegel & Cameron), ' \
-                       'GPS track analysis (Haversine, elevation gain, per-km splits), ' \
-                       'age grading (WMA 2023), VO2max estimation (Daniels & Gilbert), and ' \
-                       'personalized training zones (Daniels paces & Karvonen heart-rate zones).'
+                       'unit conversions (30+ units), race time predictions (Riegel, Cameron, ' \
+                       'personal Riegel exponent, and Tanda marathon from training volume), ' \
+                       'GPS track analysis (Haversine, elevation gain, per-km splits, ' \
+                       'Minetti grade-adjusted pace), heat, humidity, and altitude adjustments, ' \
+                       'age grading (2025 road tables), VO2max estimation (Daniels & Gilbert) ' \
+                       'with FRIEND age/sex norms, and personalized training zones ' \
+                       '(Daniels paces & Karvonen heart-rate zones).'
   spec.homepage      = 'https://github.com/0jonjo/calcpace'
   spec.metadata['source_code_uri'] = spec.homepage
   spec.license = 'MIT'
@@ -23,7 +27,7 @@ Gem::Specification.new do |spec|
   spec.metadata['rubygems_mfa_required'] = 'true'
 
   spec.files = Dir.chdir(File.expand_path(__dir__)) do
-    `git ls-files -z`.split("\x0").reject { |f| f.match(%r{^(test|spec|features)/}) }
+    `git ls-files -z`.split("\x0").reject { |f| f.match(%r{^(test|spec|features|docs)/}) }
   end
   spec.bindir        = 'exe'
   spec.executables   = spec.files.grep(%r{^exe/}) { |f| File.basename(f) }