all-up-in-your-elo 0.0.2
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- data/.document +5 -0
- data/Gemfile +14 -0
- data/Gemfile.lock +22 -0
- data/LICENSE.txt +20 -0
- data/README.rdoc +42 -0
- data/Rakefile +54 -0
- data/VERSION +1 -0
- data/all-up-in-your-elo.gemspec +148 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/.gitignore +4 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CBradleyTerry.cpp +670 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CBradleyTerry.h +137 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CCDistribution.cpp +135 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CCDistribution.h +44 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CCDistributionCUI.cpp +104 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CCDistributionCUI.h +38 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CCondensedResults.cpp +253 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CCondensedResults.h +64 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CDiscretization.h +40 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CDistribution.cpp +123 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CDistribution.h +58 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CDistributionCollection.cpp +34 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CDistributionCollection.h +29 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CEloRatingCUI.cpp +1046 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CEloRatingCUI.h +67 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CIndirectCompare.h +28 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CJointBayesian.cpp +111 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CJointBayesian.h +38 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CLUDecomposition.cpp +154 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CLUDecomposition.h +36 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CMatrix.cpp +48 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CMatrix.h +35 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CMatrixIO.cpp +27 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CMatrixIO.h +17 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CPredictionCUI.cpp +393 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CPredictionCUI.h +50 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CResultSet.cpp +245 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CResultSet.h +50 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CResultSetCUI.cpp +355 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CResultSetCUI.h +44 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CTimeIO.cpp +58 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CTimeIO.h +19 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CVector.cpp +110 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/CVector.h +42 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/EloDataFromFile.cpp +120 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/EloDataFromFile.h +21 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/README +8 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/ReadLineToString.cpp +32 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/ReadLineToString.h +18 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/chtime.cpp +56 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/chtime.h +61 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/chtimer.h +27 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/clktimer.cpp +178 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/clktimer.h +29 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/consolui.cpp +538 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/consolui.h +154 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/const.cpp +79 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/const.h +42 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/date.cpp +96 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/date.h +44 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/debug.h +58 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/elomain.cpp +26 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/eloratings.cpp +76 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/extconf.rb +6 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/list.h +367 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/listi.h +125 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/move.cpp +249 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/move.h +139 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/pgn.h +62 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/pgnlex.cpp +432 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/pgnlex.h +105 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/pgnstr.cpp +126 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/piece.h +44 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/player.h +31 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/position.h +89 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/random.cpp +114 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/random.h +63 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/readstr.cpp +51 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/readstr.h +19 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/square.h +61 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/str.cpp +81 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/str.h +71 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/version.cpp +30 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/version.h +28 -0
- data/ext/bayeselo/version_number.h +1 -0
- data/lib/elo_ratings.rb +9 -0
- data/lib/elo_ratings/c_bayeselo.rb +5 -0
- data/lib/elo_ratings/results.rb +41 -0
- data/test/elo_ratings/test_c_bayeselo.rb +84 -0
- data/test/elo_ratings/test_results.rb +41 -0
- data/test/helper.rb +19 -0
- metadata +233 -0
data/.document
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data/Gemfile
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source "http://rubygems.org"
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# Add dependencies required to use your gem here.
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# Example:
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# gem "activesupport", ">= 2.3.5"
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# Add dependencies to develop your gem here.
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# Include everything needed to run rake, tests, features, etc.
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group :development do
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gem "shoulda", ">= 0"
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gem "bundler", "~> 1.0.0"
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gem "jeweler", "~> 1.5.2"
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gem "rcov", ">= 0"
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gem "rice"
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end
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data/Gemfile.lock
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GEM
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remote: http://rubygems.org/
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specs:
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git (1.2.5)
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jeweler (1.5.2)
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bundler (~> 1.0.0)
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git (>= 1.2.5)
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rake
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rake (0.8.7)
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rcov (0.9.9)
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rice (1.4.0)
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shoulda (2.11.3)
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PLATFORMS
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ruby
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DEPENDENCIES
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bundler (~> 1.0.0)
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jeweler (~> 1.5.2)
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rcov
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rice
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shoulda
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data/LICENSE.txt
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Copyright (c) 2010 phillc
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Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining
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a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the
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"Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including
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without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish,
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distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to
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permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to
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the following conditions:
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The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be
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included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software.
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THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND,
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EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF
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MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND
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NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE
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LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION
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OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION
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WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE.
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data/README.rdoc
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= All Up in Your Elo
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This is a ruby interface to the c++ classes of Remi Coulom's Bayeselo, a tool for estimating Elo ratings.
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= Bayeselo
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For more information or information on Bayeselo, see http://remi.coulom.free.fr/Bayesian-Elo/
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You can reach the website of Remi Coulom, the author of Bayeselo, at http://remi.coulom.free.fr
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Bayeselo is protected under the terms of the GNU GPL. See http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/gpl.html
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It is bundled under the ext directory of this project
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= All Up in Your Elo
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The goal of this gem was to provide a simple interface to Bayeselo in ruby.
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Advantage is set to zero (no advan advantage modifier to player 1)
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There has currently been no attempt to reproduce all functionality provided by Bayeselo.
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Only tested in ruby 1.9.1
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Ruby 1.9.2 throws some form of bus error at end of execution.
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= Usage
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require 'elo_ratings'
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ratings = EloRatings::Results.new
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ratings.add_game "player 1", "player 2", EloRatings::Player1Win
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ratings.add_game "player 1", "player 2", EloRatings::Player2Win
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ratings.add_game "player 3", "player 2", EloRatings::Player1Win
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ratings.count_games_for "player 2"
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=> 3
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ratings.elo_for "player 2"
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=> -37
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ratings.elo_for "player 3"
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=> 86
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== Copyright
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Copyright (c) 2010 phillc. See LICENSE.txt for
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further details.
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data/Rakefile
ADDED
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require 'rubygems'
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require 'bundler'
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begin
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Bundler.setup(:default, :development)
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rescue Bundler::BundlerError => e
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$stderr.puts e.message
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$stderr.puts "Run `bundle install` to install missing gems"
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exit e.status_code
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end
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require 'rake'
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require 'jeweler'
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Jeweler::Tasks.new do |gem|
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# gem is a Gem::Specification... see http://docs.rubygems.org/read/chapter/20 for more options
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gem.name = "all-up-in-your-elo"
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gem.homepage = "http://github.com/phillc/https://github.com/phillc/all-up-in-your-elo"
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gem.license = "MIT"
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gem.summary = "Ruby wrapper for bayeselo"
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gem.description = "Ruby wrapper for bayeselo"
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gem.email = "spyyderz@gmail.com"
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gem.authors = ["phillc"]
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gem.extensions << "ext/bayeselo/extconf.rb"
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# Include your dependencies below. Runtime dependencies are required when using your gem,
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# and development dependencies are only needed for development (ie running rake tasks, tests, etc)
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# gem.add_runtime_dependency 'jabber4r', '> 0.1'
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# gem.add_development_dependency 'rspec', '> 1.2.3'
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end
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Jeweler::RubygemsDotOrgTasks.new
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require 'rake/testtask'
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Rake::TestTask.new(:test) do |test|
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test.libs << 'lib' << 'test'
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test.pattern = 'test/**/test_*.rb'
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test.verbose = true
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end
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require 'rcov/rcovtask'
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Rcov::RcovTask.new do |test|
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test.libs << 'test'
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test.pattern = 'test/**/test_*.rb'
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test.verbose = true
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end
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task :default => :test
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require 'rake/rdoctask'
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Rake::RDocTask.new do |rdoc|
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version = File.exist?('VERSION') ? File.read('VERSION') : ""
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rdoc.rdoc_dir = 'rdoc'
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rdoc.title = "all up in your elo #{version}"
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rdoc.rdoc_files.include('README*')
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rdoc.rdoc_files.include('lib/**/*.rb')
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end
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data/VERSION
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0.0.2
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# Generated by jeweler
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# DO NOT EDIT THIS FILE DIRECTLY
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# Instead, edit Jeweler::Tasks in Rakefile, and run 'rake gemspec'
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# -*- encoding: utf-8 -*-
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Gem::Specification.new do |s|
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s.name = %q{all-up-in-your-elo}
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s.version = "0.0.2"
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s.required_rubygems_version = Gem::Requirement.new(">= 0") if s.respond_to? :required_rubygems_version=
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s.authors = ["phillc"]
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s.date = %q{2011-04-13}
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s.description = %q{Ruby wrapper for bayeselo}
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s.email = %q{spyyderz@gmail.com}
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s.extensions = ["ext/bayeselo/extconf.rb", "ext/bayeselo/extconf.rb"]
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s.extra_rdoc_files = [
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"LICENSE.txt",
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"README.rdoc"
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]
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s.files = [
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".document",
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"Gemfile",
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"Gemfile.lock",
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"LICENSE.txt",
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"README.rdoc",
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"Rakefile",
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"VERSION",
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"all-up-in-your-elo.gemspec",
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"ext/bayeselo/.gitignore",
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"ext/bayeselo/CBradleyTerry.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CBradleyTerry.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CCDistribution.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CCDistribution.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CCDistributionCUI.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CCDistributionCUI.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CCondensedResults.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CCondensedResults.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CDiscretization.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CDistribution.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CDistribution.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CDistributionCollection.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CDistributionCollection.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CEloRatingCUI.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CEloRatingCUI.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CIndirectCompare.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CJointBayesian.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CJointBayesian.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CLUDecomposition.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CLUDecomposition.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CMatrix.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CMatrix.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CMatrixIO.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CMatrixIO.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CPredictionCUI.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CPredictionCUI.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CResultSet.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CResultSet.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CResultSetCUI.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CResultSetCUI.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CTimeIO.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CTimeIO.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/CVector.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/CVector.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/EloDataFromFile.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/EloDataFromFile.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/README",
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"ext/bayeselo/ReadLineToString.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/ReadLineToString.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/chtime.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/chtime.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/chtimer.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/clktimer.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/clktimer.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/consolui.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/consolui.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/const.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/const.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/date.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/date.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/debug.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/elomain.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/eloratings.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/extconf.rb",
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"ext/bayeselo/list.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/listi.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/move.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/move.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/pgn.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/pgnlex.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/pgnlex.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/pgnstr.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/piece.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/player.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/position.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/random.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/random.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/readstr.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/readstr.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/square.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/str.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/str.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/version.cpp",
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"ext/bayeselo/version.h",
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"ext/bayeselo/version_number.h",
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"lib/elo_ratings.rb",
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"lib/elo_ratings/c_bayeselo.rb",
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"lib/elo_ratings/results.rb",
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+
"test/elo_ratings/test_c_bayeselo.rb",
|
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+
"test/elo_ratings/test_results.rb",
|
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|
+
"test/helper.rb"
|
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+
]
|
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+
s.homepage = %q{http://github.com/phillc/https://github.com/phillc/all-up-in-your-elo}
|
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+
s.licenses = ["MIT"]
|
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|
+
s.require_paths = ["lib"]
|
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|
+
s.rubygems_version = %q{1.3.7}
|
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+
s.summary = %q{Ruby wrapper for bayeselo}
|
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+
s.test_files = [
|
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|
+
"test/elo_ratings/test_c_bayeselo.rb",
|
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+
"test/elo_ratings/test_results.rb",
|
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+
"test/helper.rb"
|
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+
]
|
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+
|
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|
+
if s.respond_to? :specification_version then
|
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+
current_version = Gem::Specification::CURRENT_SPECIFICATION_VERSION
|
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+
s.specification_version = 3
|
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|
+
|
127
|
+
if Gem::Version.new(Gem::VERSION) >= Gem::Version.new('1.2.0') then
|
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|
+
s.add_development_dependency(%q<shoulda>, [">= 0"])
|
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|
+
s.add_development_dependency(%q<bundler>, ["~> 1.0.0"])
|
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|
+
s.add_development_dependency(%q<jeweler>, ["~> 1.5.2"])
|
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|
+
s.add_development_dependency(%q<rcov>, [">= 0"])
|
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|
+
s.add_development_dependency(%q<rice>, [">= 0"])
|
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+
else
|
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|
+
s.add_dependency(%q<shoulda>, [">= 0"])
|
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|
+
s.add_dependency(%q<bundler>, ["~> 1.0.0"])
|
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|
+
s.add_dependency(%q<jeweler>, ["~> 1.5.2"])
|
137
|
+
s.add_dependency(%q<rcov>, [">= 0"])
|
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|
+
s.add_dependency(%q<rice>, [">= 0"])
|
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|
+
end
|
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|
+
else
|
141
|
+
s.add_dependency(%q<shoulda>, [">= 0"])
|
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|
+
s.add_dependency(%q<bundler>, ["~> 1.0.0"])
|
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|
+
s.add_dependency(%q<jeweler>, ["~> 1.5.2"])
|
144
|
+
s.add_dependency(%q<rcov>, [">= 0"])
|
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|
+
s.add_dependency(%q<rice>, [">= 0"])
|
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|
+
end
|
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|
+
end
|
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|
+
|
@@ -0,0 +1,670 @@
|
|
1
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
2
|
+
//
|
3
|
+
// R�mi Coulom
|
4
|
+
//
|
5
|
+
// December, 2004
|
6
|
+
//
|
7
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
8
|
+
#include "CBradleyTerry.h"
|
9
|
+
#include "CCondensedResults.h"
|
10
|
+
#include "CResultSet.h"
|
11
|
+
#include "CCDistribution.h"
|
12
|
+
#include "CMatrix.h"
|
13
|
+
#include "CLUDecomposition.h"
|
14
|
+
#include "random.h"
|
15
|
+
|
16
|
+
#include <cmath>
|
17
|
+
|
18
|
+
#include <iostream>
|
19
|
+
#include "CMatrixIO.h"
|
20
|
+
|
21
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
22
|
+
// One iteration of the MM algorithm on gammas
|
23
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
24
|
+
void CBradleyTerry::UpdateGammas()
|
25
|
+
{
|
26
|
+
//
|
27
|
+
// Loop over players
|
28
|
+
//
|
29
|
+
for (int Player = crs.GetPlayers(); --Player >= 0;)
|
30
|
+
{
|
31
|
+
double A = 0;
|
32
|
+
double B = 0;
|
33
|
+
for (int j = crs.GetOpponents(Player); --j >= 0;)
|
34
|
+
{
|
35
|
+
const CCondensedResult &cr = crs.GetCondensedResult(Player, j);
|
36
|
+
|
37
|
+
double OpponentGamma;
|
38
|
+
if (cr.Opponent > Player)
|
39
|
+
OpponentGamma = pNextGamma[cr.Opponent];
|
40
|
+
else
|
41
|
+
OpponentGamma = pGamma[cr.Opponent];
|
42
|
+
|
43
|
+
A += cr.w_ij + cr.d_ij + cr.l_ji + cr.d_ji;
|
44
|
+
B += (cr.d_ij + cr.w_ij) * ThetaW /
|
45
|
+
(ThetaW * pGamma[Player] + ThetaD * OpponentGamma) +
|
46
|
+
(cr.d_ij + cr.l_ij) * ThetaD * ThetaW /
|
47
|
+
(ThetaD * ThetaW * pGamma[Player] + OpponentGamma) +
|
48
|
+
(cr.d_ji + cr.w_ji) * ThetaD /
|
49
|
+
(ThetaW * OpponentGamma + ThetaD * pGamma[Player]) +
|
50
|
+
(cr.d_ji + cr.l_ji) /
|
51
|
+
(ThetaD * ThetaW * OpponentGamma + pGamma[Player]);
|
52
|
+
}
|
53
|
+
pNextGamma[Player] = A / B;
|
54
|
+
}
|
55
|
+
|
56
|
+
//
|
57
|
+
// Swap buffers to prepare next iteration
|
58
|
+
//
|
59
|
+
{
|
60
|
+
double *pTemp = pGamma;
|
61
|
+
pGamma = pNextGamma;
|
62
|
+
pNextGamma = pTemp;
|
63
|
+
}
|
64
|
+
}
|
65
|
+
|
66
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
67
|
+
// MM on ThetaW
|
68
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
69
|
+
double CBradleyTerry::UpdateThetaW()
|
70
|
+
{
|
71
|
+
double Numerator = 0;
|
72
|
+
double Denominator = 0;
|
73
|
+
|
74
|
+
for (int Player = crs.GetPlayers(); --Player >= 0;)
|
75
|
+
for (int j = crs.GetOpponents(Player); --j >= 0;)
|
76
|
+
{
|
77
|
+
const CCondensedResult &cr = crs.GetCondensedResult(Player, j);
|
78
|
+
double OpponentGamma = pGamma[cr.Opponent];
|
79
|
+
|
80
|
+
Numerator += cr.w_ij + cr.d_ij;
|
81
|
+
Denominator += (cr.d_ij + cr.w_ij) * pGamma[Player] /
|
82
|
+
(ThetaW * pGamma[Player] + ThetaD * OpponentGamma) +
|
83
|
+
(cr.d_ij + cr.l_ij) * ThetaD * pGamma[Player] /
|
84
|
+
(ThetaD * ThetaW * pGamma[Player] + OpponentGamma);
|
85
|
+
}
|
86
|
+
|
87
|
+
return Numerator / Denominator;
|
88
|
+
}
|
89
|
+
|
90
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
91
|
+
// MM on ThetaD
|
92
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
93
|
+
double CBradleyTerry::UpdateThetaD()
|
94
|
+
{
|
95
|
+
double Numerator = 0;
|
96
|
+
double Denominator = 0;
|
97
|
+
|
98
|
+
for (int Player = crs.GetPlayers(); --Player >= 0;)
|
99
|
+
for (int j = crs.GetOpponents(Player); --j >= 0;)
|
100
|
+
{
|
101
|
+
const CCondensedResult &cr = crs.GetCondensedResult(Player, j);
|
102
|
+
double OpponentGamma = pGamma[cr.Opponent];
|
103
|
+
|
104
|
+
Numerator += cr.d_ij;
|
105
|
+
Denominator += (cr.d_ij + cr.w_ij) * OpponentGamma /
|
106
|
+
(ThetaW * pGamma[Player] + ThetaD * OpponentGamma) +
|
107
|
+
(cr.d_ij + cr.l_ij) * ThetaW * pGamma[Player] /
|
108
|
+
(ThetaD * ThetaW * pGamma[Player] + OpponentGamma);
|
109
|
+
}
|
110
|
+
|
111
|
+
double C = Numerator / Denominator;
|
112
|
+
|
113
|
+
return C + std::sqrt(C * C + 1);
|
114
|
+
}
|
115
|
+
|
116
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
117
|
+
// Compute the maximum relative difference between two iterations
|
118
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
119
|
+
double CBradleyTerry::GetDifference(int n,
|
120
|
+
const double *pd1,
|
121
|
+
const double *pd2)
|
122
|
+
{
|
123
|
+
double Result = 0;
|
124
|
+
for (int i = n; --i >= 0;)
|
125
|
+
{
|
126
|
+
double Diff = std::fabs(pd1[i] - pd2[i]) / (pd1[i] + pd2[i]);
|
127
|
+
if (Diff > Result)
|
128
|
+
Result = Diff;
|
129
|
+
}
|
130
|
+
return Result;
|
131
|
+
}
|
132
|
+
|
133
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
134
|
+
// Constructor
|
135
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
136
|
+
CBradleyTerry::CBradleyTerry(const CCondensedResults &crsInit):
|
137
|
+
crs(crsInit),
|
138
|
+
velo(crs.GetPlayers()),
|
139
|
+
eloAdvantage(32.8),
|
140
|
+
eloDraw(97.3),
|
141
|
+
v1(crs.GetPlayers()),
|
142
|
+
v2(crs.GetPlayers()),
|
143
|
+
pGamma(&v1[0]),
|
144
|
+
pNextGamma(&v2[0])
|
145
|
+
{
|
146
|
+
}
|
147
|
+
|
148
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
149
|
+
// Convert Elos to gammas and Thetas
|
150
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
151
|
+
void CBradleyTerry::ConvertEloToGamma() const
|
152
|
+
{
|
153
|
+
ThetaW = std::pow(10.0, eloAdvantage/400.0);
|
154
|
+
ThetaD = std::pow(10.0, eloDraw/400.0);
|
155
|
+
for (int i = crs.GetPlayers(); --i >= 0;)
|
156
|
+
pGamma[i] = std::pow(10.0, velo[i]/400.0);
|
157
|
+
}
|
158
|
+
|
159
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
160
|
+
// MM Algorithm
|
161
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
162
|
+
void CBradleyTerry::MinorizationMaximization(int fThetaW,
|
163
|
+
int fThetaD,
|
164
|
+
double Epsilon)
|
165
|
+
{
|
166
|
+
//
|
167
|
+
// Set initial values
|
168
|
+
//
|
169
|
+
ThetaW = fThetaW ? 1.0 : std::pow(10.0, eloAdvantage/400.0);
|
170
|
+
ThetaD = fThetaD ? 1.0 : std::pow(10.0, eloDraw/400.0);
|
171
|
+
for (int i = crs.GetPlayers(); --i >= 0;)
|
172
|
+
pGamma[i] = 1.0;
|
173
|
+
|
174
|
+
//
|
175
|
+
// Main MM loop
|
176
|
+
//
|
177
|
+
for (int i = 0; i < 10000; i++)
|
178
|
+
{
|
179
|
+
UpdateGammas();
|
180
|
+
double Diff = GetDifference(crs.GetPlayers(), pGamma, pNextGamma);
|
181
|
+
|
182
|
+
if (fThetaW)
|
183
|
+
{
|
184
|
+
double NewThetaW = UpdateThetaW();
|
185
|
+
double ThetaW_Diff = std::fabs(ThetaW - NewThetaW);
|
186
|
+
if (ThetaW_Diff > Diff)
|
187
|
+
Diff = ThetaW_Diff;
|
188
|
+
ThetaW = NewThetaW;
|
189
|
+
}
|
190
|
+
|
191
|
+
if (fThetaD)
|
192
|
+
{
|
193
|
+
double NewThetaD = UpdateThetaD();
|
194
|
+
double ThetaD_Diff = std::fabs(ThetaD - NewThetaD);
|
195
|
+
if (ThetaD_Diff > Diff)
|
196
|
+
Diff = ThetaD_Diff;
|
197
|
+
ThetaD = NewThetaD;
|
198
|
+
}
|
199
|
+
|
200
|
+
if (Diff < Epsilon)
|
201
|
+
break;
|
202
|
+
|
203
|
+
//
|
204
|
+
// Print iteration information
|
205
|
+
//
|
206
|
+
#if 1
|
207
|
+
if ((i + 1) % 100 == 0)
|
208
|
+
{
|
209
|
+
std::cout << "Iteration " << i + 1 << ": ";
|
210
|
+
std::cout << Diff << ' ';
|
211
|
+
std::cout << '\n';
|
212
|
+
std::cout.flush();
|
213
|
+
}
|
214
|
+
#endif
|
215
|
+
}
|
216
|
+
|
217
|
+
//
|
218
|
+
// Convert back to Elos
|
219
|
+
//
|
220
|
+
{
|
221
|
+
double Total = 0;
|
222
|
+
for (int i = crs.GetPlayers(); --i >= 0;)
|
223
|
+
Total += (velo[i] = std::log10(pGamma[i]) * 400);
|
224
|
+
double Offset = - Total / crs.GetPlayers();
|
225
|
+
for (int i = crs.GetPlayers(); --i >= 0;)
|
226
|
+
velo[i] += Offset;
|
227
|
+
}
|
228
|
+
|
229
|
+
if (fThetaW)
|
230
|
+
eloAdvantage = std::log10(ThetaW) * 400;
|
231
|
+
|
232
|
+
if (fThetaD)
|
233
|
+
eloDraw = std::log10(ThetaD) * 400;
|
234
|
+
}
|
235
|
+
|
236
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
237
|
+
// Get the likelihood of the results of a player
|
238
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
239
|
+
double CBradleyTerry::LogLikelihood(int Player) const
|
240
|
+
{
|
241
|
+
double Result = 0;
|
242
|
+
for (int i = crs.GetOpponents(Player); --i >= 0;)
|
243
|
+
{
|
244
|
+
const CCondensedResult &cr = crs.GetCondensedResult(Player, i);
|
245
|
+
double Delta = velo[Player] - velo[cr.Opponent];
|
246
|
+
if (cr.w_ij > 0)
|
247
|
+
Result += cr.w_ij * std::log(WinProbability(Delta));
|
248
|
+
if (cr.d_ij > 0)
|
249
|
+
Result += cr.d_ij * std::log(DrawProbability(Delta));
|
250
|
+
if (cr.l_ij > 0)
|
251
|
+
Result += cr.l_ij * std::log(LossProbability(Delta));
|
252
|
+
if (cr.w_ji > 0)
|
253
|
+
Result += cr.w_ji * std::log(WinProbability(-Delta));
|
254
|
+
if (cr.d_ji > 0)
|
255
|
+
Result += cr.d_ji * std::log(DrawProbability(-Delta));
|
256
|
+
if (cr.l_ji > 0)
|
257
|
+
Result += cr.l_ji * std::log(LossProbability(-Delta));
|
258
|
+
}
|
259
|
+
return Result;
|
260
|
+
}
|
261
|
+
|
262
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
263
|
+
// Get the likelihood of a result set
|
264
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
265
|
+
double CBradleyTerry::LogLikelihood(const CResultSet &rs) const
|
266
|
+
{
|
267
|
+
double Result = 0;
|
268
|
+
|
269
|
+
for (int i = rs.GetGames(); --i >= 0;)
|
270
|
+
{
|
271
|
+
double Delta = velo[rs.GetWhite(i)] - velo[rs.GetBlack(i)];
|
272
|
+
switch(rs.GetResult(i))
|
273
|
+
{
|
274
|
+
case 0: Result += std::log(LossProbability(Delta)); break;
|
275
|
+
case 1: Result += std::log(DrawProbability(Delta)); break;
|
276
|
+
case 2: Result += std::log(WinProbability(Delta)); break;
|
277
|
+
}
|
278
|
+
}
|
279
|
+
|
280
|
+
return Result;
|
281
|
+
}
|
282
|
+
|
283
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
284
|
+
// Get the likelihood of the full set of results
|
285
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
286
|
+
double CBradleyTerry::LogLikelihood() const
|
287
|
+
{
|
288
|
+
double Result = 0;
|
289
|
+
for (int Player = crs.GetPlayers(); --Player >= 0;)
|
290
|
+
for (int i = crs.GetOpponents(Player); --i >= 0;)
|
291
|
+
{
|
292
|
+
const CCondensedResult &cr = crs.GetCondensedResult(Player, i);
|
293
|
+
double Delta = velo[Player] - velo[cr.Opponent];
|
294
|
+
if (cr.w_ij > 0)
|
295
|
+
Result += cr.w_ij * std::log(WinProbability(Delta));
|
296
|
+
if (cr.d_ij > 0)
|
297
|
+
Result += cr.d_ij * std::log(DrawProbability(Delta));
|
298
|
+
if (cr.l_ij > 0)
|
299
|
+
Result += cr.l_ij * std::log(LossProbability(Delta));
|
300
|
+
}
|
301
|
+
return Result;
|
302
|
+
}
|
303
|
+
|
304
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
305
|
+
// Get the likelihood distribution of one player
|
306
|
+
// The ratings of opponents are supposed to be exact
|
307
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
308
|
+
void CBradleyTerry::GetPlayerDist(int Player, CCDistribution &cdist) const
|
309
|
+
{
|
310
|
+
std::vector<double> veloBackup(velo);
|
311
|
+
|
312
|
+
for (int i = cdist.GetSize(); --i >= 0;)
|
313
|
+
{
|
314
|
+
velo[Player] = cdist.ValueFromIndex(i);
|
315
|
+
if (crs.GetPlayers() > 1)
|
316
|
+
{
|
317
|
+
double Delta = (velo[Player] - veloBackup[Player]) / (crs.GetPlayers() - 1);
|
318
|
+
for (int j = crs.GetPlayers(); --j >= 0;)
|
319
|
+
if (j != Player)
|
320
|
+
velo[j] = veloBackup[j] - Delta;
|
321
|
+
}
|
322
|
+
cdist.SetProbability(i, LogLikelihood(Player));
|
323
|
+
}
|
324
|
+
cdist.LogNormalize();
|
325
|
+
|
326
|
+
velo = veloBackup;
|
327
|
+
}
|
328
|
+
|
329
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
330
|
+
// Likelihood distribution of the eloAdvantage parameter
|
331
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
332
|
+
void CBradleyTerry::GetAdvantageDist(CCDistribution &cdist) const
|
333
|
+
{
|
334
|
+
double eloPrevious = eloAdvantage;
|
335
|
+
for (int i = cdist.GetSize(); --i >= 0;)
|
336
|
+
{
|
337
|
+
eloAdvantage = cdist.ValueFromIndex(i);
|
338
|
+
cdist.SetProbability(i, LogLikelihood());
|
339
|
+
}
|
340
|
+
cdist.LogNormalize();
|
341
|
+
eloAdvantage = eloPrevious;
|
342
|
+
}
|
343
|
+
|
344
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
345
|
+
// Likelihood distribution of the eloDraw parameter
|
346
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
347
|
+
void CBradleyTerry::GetDrawEloDist(CCDistribution &cdist) const
|
348
|
+
{
|
349
|
+
double eloPrevious = eloDraw;
|
350
|
+
for (int i = cdist.GetSize(); --i >= 0;)
|
351
|
+
{
|
352
|
+
eloDraw = cdist.ValueFromIndex(i);
|
353
|
+
cdist.SetProbability(i, LogLikelihood());
|
354
|
+
}
|
355
|
+
cdist.LogNormalize();
|
356
|
+
eloDraw = eloPrevious;
|
357
|
+
}
|
358
|
+
|
359
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
360
|
+
// Compute variance with the diagonal of the Hessian
|
361
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
362
|
+
void CBradleyTerry::GetVariance(double *pdVariance) const
|
363
|
+
{
|
364
|
+
ConvertEloToGamma();
|
365
|
+
|
366
|
+
const double x = std::log(10.0) / 400;
|
367
|
+
const double xx = x * x;
|
368
|
+
|
369
|
+
for (int Player = crs.GetPlayers(); --Player >= 0;)
|
370
|
+
{
|
371
|
+
double Diag = 0;
|
372
|
+
double PlayerGamma = pGamma[Player];
|
373
|
+
|
374
|
+
for (int j = crs.GetOpponents(Player); --j >= 0;)
|
375
|
+
{
|
376
|
+
const CCondensedResult &cr = crs.GetCondensedResult(Player, j);
|
377
|
+
double OpponentGamma = pGamma[cr.Opponent];
|
378
|
+
|
379
|
+
double h = 0;
|
380
|
+
|
381
|
+
{
|
382
|
+
double d = ThetaW * PlayerGamma + ThetaD * OpponentGamma;
|
383
|
+
h += (cr.w_ij + cr.d_ij) / (d * d);
|
384
|
+
}
|
385
|
+
{
|
386
|
+
double d = ThetaD * ThetaW * PlayerGamma + OpponentGamma;
|
387
|
+
h += (cr.l_ij + cr.d_ij) / (d * d);
|
388
|
+
}
|
389
|
+
{
|
390
|
+
double d = ThetaW * OpponentGamma + ThetaD * PlayerGamma;
|
391
|
+
h += (cr.w_ji + cr.d_ji) / (d * d);
|
392
|
+
}
|
393
|
+
{
|
394
|
+
double d = ThetaD * ThetaW * OpponentGamma + PlayerGamma;
|
395
|
+
h += (cr.l_ji + cr.d_ji) / (d * d);
|
396
|
+
}
|
397
|
+
|
398
|
+
h *= PlayerGamma * OpponentGamma * ThetaD * ThetaW;
|
399
|
+
Diag -= h;
|
400
|
+
}
|
401
|
+
|
402
|
+
pdVariance[Player] = -1.0 / (Diag * xx);
|
403
|
+
}
|
404
|
+
}
|
405
|
+
|
406
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
407
|
+
// Compute the covariance matrix
|
408
|
+
// This function assumes that ratings are maximum-likelihood ratings
|
409
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
410
|
+
void CBradleyTerry::ComputeCovariance()
|
411
|
+
{
|
412
|
+
//
|
413
|
+
// Compute the truncated opposite of the Hessian
|
414
|
+
//
|
415
|
+
CMatrix mTruncatedHessian(crs.GetPlayers() - 1, crs.GetPlayers() - 1);
|
416
|
+
{
|
417
|
+
ConvertEloToGamma();
|
418
|
+
|
419
|
+
const double x = std::log(10.0) / 400;
|
420
|
+
const double xx = -x * x;
|
421
|
+
|
422
|
+
mTruncatedHessian.Zero();
|
423
|
+
|
424
|
+
for (int Player = crs.GetPlayers() - 1; --Player >= 0;)
|
425
|
+
{
|
426
|
+
double Diag = 0;
|
427
|
+
double PlayerGamma = pGamma[Player];
|
428
|
+
|
429
|
+
for (int j = crs.GetOpponents(Player); --j >= 0;)
|
430
|
+
{
|
431
|
+
const CCondensedResult &cr = crs.GetCondensedResult(Player, j);
|
432
|
+
double OpponentGamma = pGamma[cr.Opponent];
|
433
|
+
|
434
|
+
double h = 0;
|
435
|
+
|
436
|
+
{
|
437
|
+
double d = ThetaW * PlayerGamma + ThetaD * OpponentGamma;
|
438
|
+
h += (cr.w_ij + cr.d_ij) / (d * d);
|
439
|
+
}
|
440
|
+
{
|
441
|
+
double d = ThetaD * ThetaW * PlayerGamma + OpponentGamma;
|
442
|
+
h += (cr.l_ij + cr.d_ij) / (d * d);
|
443
|
+
}
|
444
|
+
{
|
445
|
+
double d = ThetaW * OpponentGamma + ThetaD * PlayerGamma;
|
446
|
+
h += (cr.w_ji + cr.d_ji) / (d * d);
|
447
|
+
}
|
448
|
+
{
|
449
|
+
double d = ThetaD * ThetaW * OpponentGamma + PlayerGamma;
|
450
|
+
h += (cr.l_ji + cr.d_ji) / (d * d);
|
451
|
+
}
|
452
|
+
|
453
|
+
h *= PlayerGamma * OpponentGamma * ThetaD * ThetaW;
|
454
|
+
Diag -= h;
|
455
|
+
if (cr.Opponent != crs.GetPlayers() - 1)
|
456
|
+
mTruncatedHessian.SetElement(Player, cr.Opponent, h * xx);
|
457
|
+
}
|
458
|
+
|
459
|
+
mTruncatedHessian.SetElement(Player, Player, Diag * xx);
|
460
|
+
}
|
461
|
+
}
|
462
|
+
|
463
|
+
//
|
464
|
+
// LU-Decompose it
|
465
|
+
//
|
466
|
+
CLUDecomposition lud(crs.GetPlayers() - 1);
|
467
|
+
std::vector<int> vIndex(crs.GetPlayers() - 1);
|
468
|
+
lud.Decompose(mTruncatedHessian, &vIndex[0]);
|
469
|
+
|
470
|
+
//
|
471
|
+
// Fill A
|
472
|
+
//
|
473
|
+
CMatrix mA(crs.GetPlayers(), crs.GetPlayers() - 1);
|
474
|
+
{
|
475
|
+
double x = -1.0 / crs.GetPlayers();
|
476
|
+
for (int i = crs.GetPlayers() * (crs.GetPlayers() - 1); --i >= 0;)
|
477
|
+
mA[i] = x;
|
478
|
+
for (int i = crs.GetPlayers() - 1; --i >= 0;)
|
479
|
+
mA.SetElement(i, i, 1.0 + x);
|
480
|
+
}
|
481
|
+
|
482
|
+
//
|
483
|
+
// Compute AC
|
484
|
+
//
|
485
|
+
CMatrix mAC(crs.GetPlayers(), crs.GetPlayers() - 1);
|
486
|
+
for (int i = crs.GetPlayers(); --i >= 0;)
|
487
|
+
{
|
488
|
+
int Index = i * (crs.GetPlayers() - 1);
|
489
|
+
lud.Solve(mTruncatedHessian, &vIndex[0], mA + Index, mAC + Index);
|
490
|
+
}
|
491
|
+
|
492
|
+
//
|
493
|
+
// Compute the covariance
|
494
|
+
//
|
495
|
+
mCovariance.SetProductByTranspose(mAC, mA);
|
496
|
+
}
|
497
|
+
|
498
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
499
|
+
// Compute the likelihood of superiority
|
500
|
+
// This function assumes that the covariance matrix and ratings are computed
|
501
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
502
|
+
void CBradleyTerry::ComputeLikelihoodOfSuperiority()
|
503
|
+
{
|
504
|
+
mLOS.SetSize(crs.GetPlayers(), crs.GetPlayers());
|
505
|
+
|
506
|
+
for (int i = mLOS.GetRows(); --i > 0;)
|
507
|
+
for (int j = i; --j >= 0;)
|
508
|
+
{
|
509
|
+
double Sigma2 = mCovariance.GetElement(i, i) +
|
510
|
+
mCovariance.GetElement(j, j) -
|
511
|
+
mCovariance.GetElement(i, j) -
|
512
|
+
mCovariance.GetElement(j, i);
|
513
|
+
double Mu = velo[j] - velo[i];
|
514
|
+
double x = Mu / std::sqrt(2 * Sigma2);
|
515
|
+
mLOS.SetElement(i, j, erfc(x) / 2);
|
516
|
+
mLOS.SetElement(j, i, erfc(-x) / 2);
|
517
|
+
}
|
518
|
+
|
519
|
+
for (int i = mLOS.GetRows(); --i >= 0;)
|
520
|
+
mLOS.SetElement(i, i, 0.0);
|
521
|
+
}
|
522
|
+
|
523
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
524
|
+
// ELOstat bounding of probabilities
|
525
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
526
|
+
static double ELOstatBound(double p)
|
527
|
+
{
|
528
|
+
static const double MaxP = 1 / (1 + std::pow(10.0, -600 / double(400)));
|
529
|
+
static const double MinP = 1 / (1 + std::pow(10.0, 600 / double(400)));
|
530
|
+
|
531
|
+
if (p > MaxP)
|
532
|
+
p = MaxP;
|
533
|
+
if (p < MinP)
|
534
|
+
p = MinP;
|
535
|
+
|
536
|
+
return p;
|
537
|
+
}
|
538
|
+
|
539
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
540
|
+
// ELOstat algorithm
|
541
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
542
|
+
void CBradleyTerry::ELOstat(double Epsilon)
|
543
|
+
{
|
544
|
+
double *pElo = &v1[0];
|
545
|
+
double *pNextElo = &v2[0];
|
546
|
+
for (int i = crs.GetPlayers(); --i >= 0;)
|
547
|
+
pElo[i] = 0;
|
548
|
+
|
549
|
+
for (int i = 0; i < 10000; i++)
|
550
|
+
{
|
551
|
+
//
|
552
|
+
// Start by copying ratings
|
553
|
+
//
|
554
|
+
for (int j = crs.GetPlayers(); --j >= 0;)
|
555
|
+
pNextElo[j] = pElo[j];
|
556
|
+
|
557
|
+
//
|
558
|
+
// Loop over players to compute their new ratings
|
559
|
+
//
|
560
|
+
double TotalElo = 0;
|
561
|
+
double GrandTotalGames = 0;
|
562
|
+
for (int j = crs.GetPlayers(); --j >= 0;)
|
563
|
+
{
|
564
|
+
double TotalGames = 0;
|
565
|
+
double TotalScore = 0;
|
566
|
+
double TotalOpponentElo = 0;
|
567
|
+
|
568
|
+
//
|
569
|
+
// Loop over opponents
|
570
|
+
//
|
571
|
+
for (int k = crs.GetOpponents(j); --k >= 0;)
|
572
|
+
{
|
573
|
+
const CCondensedResult &cr = crs.GetCondensedResult(j, k);
|
574
|
+
double Games = cr.Games();
|
575
|
+
TotalGames += Games;
|
576
|
+
TotalScore += cr.Score();
|
577
|
+
TotalOpponentElo += Games * pElo[cr.Opponent];
|
578
|
+
}
|
579
|
+
|
580
|
+
double p = ELOstatBound(TotalScore / TotalGames);
|
581
|
+
double Delta = 400 * std::log10(p / (1 - p));
|
582
|
+
pNextElo[j] = TotalOpponentElo / TotalGames + Delta;
|
583
|
+
TotalElo += TotalGames * pNextElo[j];
|
584
|
+
GrandTotalGames += TotalGames;
|
585
|
+
}
|
586
|
+
|
587
|
+
//
|
588
|
+
// Normalize and swap
|
589
|
+
//
|
590
|
+
for (int j = crs.GetPlayers(); --j >= 0;)
|
591
|
+
pNextElo[j] -= TotalElo / GrandTotalGames;
|
592
|
+
{
|
593
|
+
double *pd = pElo;
|
594
|
+
pElo = pNextElo;
|
595
|
+
pNextElo = pd;
|
596
|
+
}
|
597
|
+
|
598
|
+
//
|
599
|
+
// Compute difference
|
600
|
+
//
|
601
|
+
double MaxDiff = 0;
|
602
|
+
for (int j = crs.GetPlayers(); --j >= 0;)
|
603
|
+
{
|
604
|
+
double Diff = std::fabs(pNextElo[j] - pElo[j]);
|
605
|
+
if (Diff > MaxDiff)
|
606
|
+
MaxDiff = Diff;
|
607
|
+
}
|
608
|
+
if (MaxDiff < Epsilon)
|
609
|
+
{
|
610
|
+
std::cout << i + 1 << " iterations\n";
|
611
|
+
break;
|
612
|
+
}
|
613
|
+
}
|
614
|
+
|
615
|
+
//
|
616
|
+
// Store computed Elo ratings into vElo
|
617
|
+
//
|
618
|
+
for (int i = crs.GetPlayers(); --i >= 0;)
|
619
|
+
velo[i] = pElo[i];
|
620
|
+
}
|
621
|
+
|
622
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
623
|
+
// ELOstat way of computing confidence intervals
|
624
|
+
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
|
625
|
+
void CBradleyTerry::ELOstatIntervals(double *peloLower,
|
626
|
+
double *peloUpper) const
|
627
|
+
{
|
628
|
+
//
|
629
|
+
// Loop over players to compute confidence intervals
|
630
|
+
//
|
631
|
+
for (int j = crs.GetPlayers(); --j >= 0;)
|
632
|
+
{
|
633
|
+
//
|
634
|
+
// Loop over opponents
|
635
|
+
//
|
636
|
+
double TotalGames = 0;
|
637
|
+
double TotalScore = 0;
|
638
|
+
for (int k = crs.GetOpponents(j); --k >= 0;)
|
639
|
+
{
|
640
|
+
const CCondensedResult &cr = crs.GetCondensedResult(j, k);
|
641
|
+
TotalGames += cr.Games();
|
642
|
+
TotalScore += cr.Score();
|
643
|
+
}
|
644
|
+
double MeanScore = TotalScore / TotalGames;
|
645
|
+
|
646
|
+
//
|
647
|
+
// Loop again for variance
|
648
|
+
//
|
649
|
+
double TotalVariance = 0;
|
650
|
+
for (int k = crs.GetOpponents(j); --k >= 0;)
|
651
|
+
{
|
652
|
+
const CCondensedResult &cr = crs.GetCondensedResult(j, k);
|
653
|
+
TotalVariance += (cr.w_ij + cr.l_ji)*(1 - MeanScore)*(1 - MeanScore) +
|
654
|
+
(cr.d_ij + cr.d_ji)*(0.5 - MeanScore)*(0.5 - MeanScore) +
|
655
|
+
(cr.w_ji + cr.l_ij)*(0 - MeanScore)*(0 - MeanScore);
|
656
|
+
}
|
657
|
+
if (TotalVariance < 0)
|
658
|
+
TotalVariance = 0;
|
659
|
+
double Variance = TotalVariance / (TotalGames * TotalGames);
|
660
|
+
double StandardDeviation = std::sqrt(Variance);
|
661
|
+
double pLower = ELOstatBound(MeanScore - 1.95996 * StandardDeviation);
|
662
|
+
double pUpper = ELOstatBound(MeanScore + 1.95996 * StandardDeviation);
|
663
|
+
double p = ELOstatBound(MeanScore);
|
664
|
+
double DeltaLower = 400 * std::log10(pLower / (1 - pLower));
|
665
|
+
double DeltaUpper = 400 * std::log10(pUpper / (1 - pUpper));
|
666
|
+
double Delta = 400 * std::log10(p / (1 - p));
|
667
|
+
peloLower[j] = Delta - DeltaLower;
|
668
|
+
peloUpper[j] = DeltaUpper - Delta;
|
669
|
+
}
|
670
|
+
}
|