tycheon 0.1.0__tar.gz

tycheon-0.1.0/.gitignore

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+# Python
+__pycache__/
+*.py[cod]
+*.egg-info/
+.eggs/
+build/
+dist/
+*.so
+
+# Environments
+.venv/
+venv/
+.python-version
+
+# Secrets — never commit real values; see .env.example
+.env
+.env.*
+!.env.example
+*.pem
+*.key
+secrets/
+
+# Tooling caches
+.pytest_cache/
+.mypy_cache/
+.ruff_cache/
+.hypothesis/
+.coverage
+.coverage.*
+coverage.xml
+htmlcov/
+
+# Docs
+site/
+
+# Local data and model caches — market data is licensed; never commit it
+/data/
+*.parquet
+*.csv
+!benchmarks/**/*.csv
+*.duckdb
+*.sqlite
+*.sqlite3
+*.db
+.tycheon/
+models_cache/
+hf_cache/
+*.ckpt
+*.safetensors
+
+# Generated example output (the plot is rebuilt by `make example`)
+examples/output/
+
+# Benchmark output (results are published deliberately, not incidentally)
+benchmarks/results/local/
+
+# Editors / OS
+.idea/
+.vscode/
+.DS_Store
+Thumbs.db
+
+# Terraform
+.terraform/
+*.tfstate
+*.tfstate.*
+*.tfvars
+!*.tfvars.example
+
+# Node (ee/dashboard)
+node_modules/
+.next/

tycheon-0.1.0/LICENSE

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tycheon-0.1.0/PKG-INFO

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+Metadata-Version: 2.5
+Name: tycheon
+Version: 0.1.0
+Summary: Calibrated financial forecasting and risk. Kronos forecasts the path; Tycheon tells you how much to trust it.
+Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon
+Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon
+Project-URL: Issues, https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/issues
+Project-URL: Documentation, https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/tree/main/docs
+Author: The Tycheon Authors
+License-Expression: Apache-2.0
+License-File: LICENSE
+License-File: third_party/kronos/LICENSE
+Keywords: backtesting,calibration,conformal-prediction,expected-shortfall,fintech,forecasting,kronos,quant,risk,time-series,value-at-risk
+Classifier: Development Status :: 3 - Alpha
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Developers
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Financial and Insurance Industry
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
+Classifier: Operating System :: OS Independent
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.11
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12
+Classifier: Topic :: Office/Business :: Financial :: Investment
+Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Information Analysis
+Classifier: Typing :: Typed
+Requires-Python: >=3.11
+Requires-Dist: arch<9,>=8.0
+Requires-Dist: duckdb<2,>=1.1
+Requires-Dist: lightgbm<5,>=4.5
+Requires-Dist: numpy<3,>=2.1
+Requires-Dist: pandas<4,>=2.2
+Requires-Dist: pyarrow<26,>=18
+Requires-Dist: pydantic<3,>=2.11
+Requires-Dist: scipy<2,>=1.14
+Requires-Dist: statsmodels<1,>=0.14
+Provides-Extra: agents
+Requires-Dist: boto3<2,>=1.35; extra == 'agents'
+Requires-Dist: fastapi<1,>=0.115; extra == 'agents'
+Requires-Dist: mcp<2,>=1.2; extra == 'agents'
+Requires-Dist: psycopg[binary,pool]<4,>=3.2; extra == 'agents'
+Requires-Dist: redis<9,>=5.2; extra == 'agents'
+Requires-Dist: uvicorn[standard]<1,>=0.32; extra == 'agents'
+Provides-Extra: chronos
+Requires-Dist: chronos-forecasting<3,>=2.3; extra == 'chronos'
+Provides-Extra: gpu
+Requires-Dist: accelerate<2,>=1.1; extra == 'gpu'
+Requires-Dist: torch<3,>=2.5; extra == 'gpu'
+Provides-Extra: kronos
+Requires-Dist: einops<1,>=0.8; extra == 'kronos'
+Requires-Dist: huggingface-hub<1,>=0.26; extra == 'kronos'
+Requires-Dist: safetensors<1,>=0.4; extra == 'kronos'
+Requires-Dist: torch<3,>=2.5; extra == 'kronos'
+Requires-Dist: tqdm<5,>=4.66; extra == 'kronos'
+Provides-Extra: report
+Requires-Dist: matplotlib<4,>=3.9; extra == 'report'
+Provides-Extra: serve
+Requires-Dist: boto3<2,>=1.35; extra == 'serve'
+Requires-Dist: fastapi<1,>=0.115; extra == 'serve'
+Requires-Dist: mcp<2,>=1.2; extra == 'serve'
+Requires-Dist: psycopg[binary,pool]<4,>=3.2; extra == 'serve'
+Requires-Dist: redis<9,>=5.2; extra == 'serve'
+Requires-Dist: uvicorn[standard]<1,>=0.32; extra == 'serve'
+Provides-Extra: timesfm
+Requires-Dist: timesfm[torch]<4,>=3.0.2; extra == 'timesfm'
+Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
+
+# Tycheon
+
+**Kronos forecasts the path; Tycheon tells you how much to trust it.**
+
+Tycheon is the open-source calibrated forecasting and risk layer for financial
+time series. Foundation models for time series will happily hand you a
+trajectory with no honest statement of its uncertainty, no check that its
+intervals hold up out of sample, and no translation into the numbers a risk
+desk actually uses. Tycheon is that missing layer.
+
+[![License](https://img.shields.io/badge/license-Apache--2.0-blue.svg)](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/LICENSE)
+[![Python](https://img.shields.io/badge/python-3.11%20%7C%203.12-blue.svg)](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/pyproject.toml)
+
+> **Status: v0.1.0 (alpha).** Point-in-time data, forecasters (Kronos, TimesFM, Chronos and
+> honest baselines), conformal calibration with measured holdout coverage, a regime-weighted
+> ensemble that always includes the random walk, a risk layer (VaR, Expected Shortfall,
+> drawdown, stress) with a JSON and HTML report, and a leakage-guarded walk-forward
+> evaluation that reads every model against the random walk with Diebold-Mariano tests.
+> **The evidence so far is synthetic: on the bundled series no model is distinguishable from
+> the random walk, and we publish that.** See the [leaderboard](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/leaderboard/index.md).
+> Multi-asset portfolio risk is always labelled **uncalibrated**: dependence is assumed.
+
+![Kronos-small beside the random-walk baseline on a synthetic series, from examples/forecast.py](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/main/docs/assets/forecast-example.png)
+
+*Kronos-small and the random walk, forecasting the same synthetic series from the same
+history (`make example`). On this one series Kronos-small's interval is about three times
+narrower and the realised path leaves it: a single anecdote, not a result, and exactly
+the over-confidence the calibration phases exist to measure.*
+
+## What it does
+
+| Capability | What that means |
+|---|---|
+| **Calibrated uncertainty** | Conformal prediction intervals with reliability diagnostics, so 90% coverage means 90% coverage. |
+| **Exogenous covariates** | News, fundamentals and macro features — not OHLCV alone. |
+| **Multi-model routing** | Kronos, TimesFM, Chronos and honest baselines, weighted by detected regime. |
+| **Forecast-to-risk** | VaR, Expected Shortfall, drawdown probability, stress scenarios, portfolio aggregation. |
+| **Leakage-proof evaluation** | Walk-forward backtesting with embargoes, a cost model, and a public leaderboard. |
+| **Production serving** | REST and MCP, plus a governed agentic research workflow. |
+
+Tycheon is B2B risk-analytics infrastructure for developers and fintechs. It is
+**not** a consumer trade-signal product and it does **not** give personalized
+investment advice.
+
+## Architecture
+
+```mermaid
+flowchart TB
+    subgraph sources["Data sources (you bring the license)"]
+        md["Market data provider"]
+        news["News / filings"]
+        fund["Fundamentals / macro"]
+    end
+
+    subgraph data["tycheon.data — point-in-time store"]
+        asof["as_of gate<br/>refuses anything published after as_of"]
+    end
+
+    subgraph models["tycheon.models"]
+        kronos["Kronos"]
+        tfm["TimesFM"]
+        chron["Chronos"]
+        base["Baselines<br/>RW · drift · seasonal naive · ARIMA · GARCH"]
+    end
+
+    cov["tycheon.covariates<br/>news · fundamentals · macro"]
+    route["tycheon.routing<br/>regime detection → ensemble weights"]
+    cal["tycheon.calibration<br/>conformal intervals + reliability"]
+    risk["tycheon.risk<br/>VaR · ES · drawdown prob · stress"]
+    bt["tycheon.backtest<br/>walk-forward · embargo · costs · leakage guards"]
+    serve["tycheon.serve<br/>REST + MCP"]
+
+    gov["tycheon.governance<br/>the only place Keelgate is imported (T4)"]
+    agents["tycheon.agents<br/>planner · specialists · verifier (T4)"]
+
+    md --> asof
+    news --> asof
+    fund --> asof
+    asof --> models
+    asof --> cov
+    cov --> route
+    models --> route
+    route --> cal
+    cal --> risk
+    cal --> bt
+    risk --> bt
+    risk --> serve
+    cal --> serve
+    bt -.->|publishes| lb["benchmarks/<br/>public leaderboard"]
+    agents --> gov
+    gov -->|governed tools| serve
+
+    classDef future stroke-dasharray: 5 5
+    class gov,agents future
+```
+
+Every forecast that leaves this system carries its intervals, its calibration
+status, the model mix that produced it, its `as_of`, and a model card
+reference. Every evaluation reports the random-walk baseline and a
+Diebold-Mariano test — including when the baseline wins.
+
+## Quickstart
+
+Requires [uv](https://docs.astral.sh/uv/) and Python 3.11+.
+
+```bash
+git clone https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon.git
+cd tycheon
+make setup          # venv + dev deps + CPU torch (for Kronos) + git hooks
+make check          # lint, format check, mypy --strict, fast tests
+uv run python -c "import tycheon; print(tycheon.__version__)"
+make example        # Kronos-small beside the random walk -> examples/output/forecast.png
+```
+
+A forecast is a distribution, always, and every read is point-in-time:
+
+```python
+from tycheon.data import load_sample
+from tycheon.models.baselines import RandomWalkForecaster
+from tycheon.models.kronos import KronosForecaster
+
+bars = load_sample("SYN-GARCH")  # synthetic: Tycheon ships no market data
+history = bars.iloc[:900]
+as_of = history["available_at"].iloc[-1]  # when this history became known
+
+for model in (RandomWalkForecaster(), KronosForecaster("small")):
+    forecast = model.predict(history, horizon=10, n_samples=50, as_of=as_of)
+    print(forecast.summary())  # quantiles, calibration status, model mix, as_of, disclaimer
+```
+
+Passing a history that includes anything published after `as_of` raises
+`LookaheadError` before the model runs. See [ADR 0003](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/adr/0003-point-in-time-data-and-forecast-contract.md).
+
+Optional dev services (Postgres, Redis, MinIO, Jaeger):
+
+```bash
+cp .env.example .env
+make up             # start and wait for health
+make down           # stop and delete volumes
+```
+
+The foundation models are optional extras, so the base install stays small
+(`import tycheon.models` never imports torch):
+
+```bash
+uv sync --extra kronos      # Kronos (vendored) + torch
+uv sync --extra timesfm     # TimesFM 2.5
+uv sync --extra chronos     # Chronos-2
+uv sync --extra serve       # FastAPI + MCP server
+uv sync --all-extras        # everything
+```
+
+## Models
+
+Every forecaster returns a `ForecastDistribution` and ships a
+[model card](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/models/index.md).
+
+| Forecaster | What it is | Sample paths | Card |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| `kronos-mini` / `-small` / `-base` | Zero-shot Kronos, 2048 / 512 / 512-bar context | yes | [mini](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/models/kronos-mini.md), [small](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/models/kronos-small.md), [base](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/models/kronos-base.md) |
+| `timesfm-2.5-200m` | Zero-shot TimesFM 2.5 | quantiles only | [card](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/models/timesfm.md) |
+| `chronos-2` | Zero-shot Chronos-2 | quantiles only | [card](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/models/chronos-2.md) |
+| `random-walk` | Driftless log-price walk: the baseline everything is read against | yes | [card](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/models/random-walk.md) |
+| `drift`, `seasonal-naive`, `arima`, `garch` | The other honest baselines | yes | [drift](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/models/drift.md), [seasonal-naive](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/models/seasonal-naive.md), [arima](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/models/arima.md), [garch](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/models/garch.md) |
+
+Kronos is vendored from upstream at a pinned commit ([ADR 0002](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/adr/0002-kronos-integration.md)),
+with its sampler replaced so the sample paths are kept rather than averaged away.
+
+Run the small benchmark (CPU, synthetic data, a few minutes) and render the leaderboard:
+
+```bash
+make benchmark-small
+```
+
+Tutorials: [calibrated forecasts with Kronos](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/tutorials/calibrated-kronos.md) and
+[run the benchmark](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/tutorials/run-the-benchmark.md). How the leaderboard stays honest:
+[benchmark methodology](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/benchmark-methodology.md).
+
+> **No `make` on Windows?** Every target is a one-line `uv` command; open the
+> [`Makefile`](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/Makefile) and run them directly, e.g. `uv sync` then
+> `uv run ruff check . && uv run mypy && uv run pytest -m "not slow"`.
+
+## Project layout
+
+```
+src/tycheon/
+  data/          provider protocol, as-of store, synthetic sample data
+  models/        kronos, timesfm, chronos, baselines
+  calibration/   conformal intervals, diagnostics
+  covariates/    news, fundamentals, macro features
+  routing/       regime detection, ensemble weighting
+  risk/          VaR, ES, drawdown prob, stress, portfolio aggregation
+  backtest/      walk-forward, metrics, cost model, leakage guards
+  governance/    the only place Keelgate is imported (from T4)
+  agents/        planner, specialists, verifier (from T4)
+  serve/         FastAPI + MCP server
+benchmarks/      leaderboard harness, configs, results
+third_party/     vendored upstream Kronos (MIT), byte-identical, hash-checked
+docs/            methodology, ADRs, model cards
+ee/              proprietary Tycheon Cloud — separate license
+```
+
+## Safety and data rules
+
+These are not aspirations; they are enforced in tests and CI.
+
+- **Point-in-time everything.** Every data read takes an `as_of` and refuses
+  data published after it. Leakage tests are mandatory for every data path.
+- **No live execution.** v1 is paper and simulation only, and only through
+  Keelgate-governed tools.
+- **Uncertainty is not optional.** No forecast ships without intervals,
+  calibration status, model mix, `as_of` and a model card.
+- **Honest baselines.** Random walk plus Diebold-Mariano on every evaluation,
+  published whichever way it goes.
+- **External text is data, never instructions.** News and filings are untrusted
+  input; nothing in them is ever executed.
+- **Your data licence stays yours.** Providers are pluggable, customers bring
+  their own market-data licence, and Tycheon never redistributes licensed
+  exchange data. `yfinance` appears in examples and local dev only, clearly
+  labelled, never in the cloud product.
+
+More in [`docs/safety.md`](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/safety.md) and [`SECURITY.md`](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/SECURITY.md).
+
+## Sister project
+
+[Keelgate](https://github.com/anilatambharii/keelgate) is the safety harness —
+policy gates, capabilities, approvals, audit, durable loops, telemetry and
+evals. Tycheon depends on it as a library from Phase T4, and every Keelgate
+import is confined to
+[`src/tycheon/governance/`](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/src/tycheon/governance/README.md).
+
+## Open core
+
+Everything outside `ee/` is Apache-2.0. `ee/` is Tycheon Cloud and carries its
+own proprietary licence. The boundary and the rules for it are in
+[`docs/adr/0001-licensing-and-open-core.md`](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/docs/adr/0001-licensing-and-open-core.md).
+
+Kronos is used under its upstream MIT licence
+([shiyu-coder/Kronos](https://github.com/shiyu-coder/Kronos)). Its code is vendored in
+[`third_party/kronos/`](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/third_party/kronos/README.md) with the original licence file,
+which also ships inside the wheel.
+
+## Contributing
+
+See [`CONTRIBUTING.md`](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md) and
+[`CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md`](https://github.com/anilatambharii/tycheon/blob/main/CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md). `make check` must pass, tests ship
+with code, and no PR lands without them.
+
+---
+
+**For research and risk analytics. Not investment advice.** Nothing produced by
+this software is a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and no part of it
+is personalized financial advice. Past calibration does not guarantee future
+coverage.