tsbootstrap 0.1.5__tar.gz → 0.2.0__tar.gz

tsbootstrap-0.2.0/PKG-INFO

@@ -0,0 +1,396 @@
+Metadata-Version: 2.4
+Name: tsbootstrap
+Version: 0.2.0
+Summary: A Python package to generate bootstrapped time series
+Author-email: Sankalp Gilda <sankalp.gilda@gmail.com>
+Maintainer-email: Sankalp Gilda <sankalp.gilda@gmail.com>, Franz Kiraly <franz.kiraly@sktime.net>, Benedikt Heidrich <benedikt.heidrich@sktime.net>
+License: MIT License
+        
+        Copyright (c) 2023 Sankalp Gilda
+        
+        Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+        of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+        in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+        to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+        copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+        furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+        
+        The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+        copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+        
+        THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+        IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+        FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+        AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+        LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+        OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+        SOFTWARE.
+        
+Classifier: Development Status :: 4 - Beta
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Developers
+Classifier: Operating System :: MacOS
+Classifier: Operating System :: Microsoft :: Windows
+Classifier: Operating System :: Unix
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3 :: Only
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.10
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.11
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.13
+Requires-Python: <3.14,>=3.10
+Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
+License-File: LICENSE
+Requires-Dist: numpy
+Requires-Dist: scipy
+Requires-Dist: pydantic
+Requires-Dist: scikit-base
+Requires-Dist: narwhals
+Provides-Extra: models
+Requires-Dist: statsmodels; extra == "models"
+Provides-Extra: uq
+Requires-Dist: scikit-learn; extra == "uq"
+Provides-Extra: accel
+Requires-Dist: numba; extra == "accel"
+Provides-Extra: profile
+Requires-Dist: scalene; extra == "profile"
+Requires-Dist: line_profiler; extra == "profile"
+Requires-Dist: memory_profiler; extra == "profile"
+Requires-Dist: py-spy; extra == "profile"
+Requires-Dist: snakeviz; extra == "profile"
+Provides-Extra: docs
+Requires-Dist: furo; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: jupyter; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: myst-parser; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: nbsphinx>=0.8.6; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: numpydoc; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: pydata-sphinx-theme; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: Sphinx!=7.2.0,<8.0.0; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: sphinx-rtd-theme>=1.3.0; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: sphinx-copybutton>=0.5.2; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: sphinx-design<0.6.0; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: sphinx-gallery<0.15.0; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: sphinx-issues<4.0.0; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: sphinx-version-warning; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: tabulate>=0.9.0; extra == "docs"
+Provides-Extra: dev
+Requires-Dist: hypothesis[numpy]; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: hypothesis-crosshair; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: pre-commit; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: pytest; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: pytest-xdist[psutil]; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: pytest-cov; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: pytest-mock; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: sktime; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: polars; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: statsmodels; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: arch; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: pandas; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: scikit-learn; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: numba; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: asv; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: mutmut>=3; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: github-actions; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: importlib-metadata; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: pip-tools; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: mypy; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: pyright; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: ruff; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: autoflake; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: typos; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: tox; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: tox-gh-actions; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: pycobertura; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: tomlkit; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: memory-profiler>=0.60.0; extra == "dev"
+Dynamic: license-file
+
+<!-- ALL-CONTRIBUTORS-BADGE:START - Do not remove or modify this section -->
+[![All Contributors](https://img.shields.io/github/all-contributors/astrogilda/tsbootstrap?color=ee8449&style=flat-square)](#contributors)
+<!-- ALL-CONTRIBUTORS-BADGE:END -->
+
+
+<div align="center">
+    <div style="float: left; margin-right: 20px;">
+        <img src="https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/blob/main/tsbootstrap_logo.png" width="120" />
+    </div>
+    <h3>Generate bootstrapped samples from time-series data. The full documentation is available <a href="https://tsbootstrap.readthedocs.io/en/latest/">here</a>.</h3>
+    <div style="clear: both;"></div>
+    <br>
+    <p align="center">
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Markdown-000000.svg?stylee&logo=Markdown&logoColor=white" alt="Markdown" />
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Python-3776AB.svg?stylee&logo=Python&logoColor=white" alt="Python" />
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Pytest-0A9EDC.svg?stylee&logo=Pytest&logoColor=white" alt="pytest" />
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/GitHub%20Actions-2088FF.svg?style&logo=GitHub-Actions&logoColor=white" alt="actions" />
+    </p>
+    <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.15227"><img src="https://img.shields.io/static/v1?label=arXiv&message=2404.15227&color=B31B1B&logo=arXiv" alt="preprint">
+    </a>
+    <a href="https://pypi.org/project/tsbootstrap/">
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/pypi/v/tsbootstrap?color=5D6D7E&logo=pypi" alt="pypi-version" />
+    </a>
+    <a href="https://pypi.org/project/tsbootstrap/">
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/pypi/pyversions/tsbootstrap?color=5D6D7E&logo=python" alt="pypi-python-version" />
+    </a>
+    <a href="https://pepy.tech/project/tsbootstrap">
+        <img src="https://static.pepy.tech/badge/tsbootstrap" alt="Downloads"/>
+    </a>
+    <img src="https://img.shields.io/github/license/eli64s/readme-ai?color=5D6D7E" alt="github-license" />
+    </a>
+    <img src="https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/workflows/CI/badge.svg" alt="Build Status"/>
+    <a href="https://codecov.io/gh/astrogilda/tsbootstrap"><img src="https://codecov.io/gh/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/branch/main/graph/badge.svg" alt="codecov"/></a>
+    <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8226495"><img src="https://zenodo.org/badge/DOI/10.5281/zenodo.8226495.svg" alt="DOI"/></a>
+    <a href="https://codeclimate.com/github/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/maintainability"><img src="https://api.codeclimate.com/v1/badges/d80a0615a8c00f31565c/maintainability" alt="Code Quality"/></a>
+    <img src="https://img.shields.io/github/last-commit/astrogilda/tsbootstrap" alt="Last Commit"/>
+    <img src="https://img.shields.io/github/issues/astrogilda/tsbootstrap" alt="Issues"/>
+    <img src="https://img.shields.io/github/issues-pr/astrogilda/tsbootstrap" alt="Pull Requests"/>
+    <img src="https://img.shields.io/github/v/tag/astrogilda/tsbootstrap" alt="Tag"/>
+</div>
+
+
+
+## 📒 Table of Contents
+
+1. [🚀 Getting Started](#-getting-started)
+2. [🧩 Modules](#-modules)
+3. [🗺 Roadmap](#-roadmap)
+4. [🤝 Contributing](#-contributing)
+5. [📄 License](#-license)
+6. [📍 Time Series Bootstrapping Methods intro](#time-series-bootstrapping)
+7. [👏 Contributors](#-contributors)
+
+
+
+---
+
+## 🚀 Getting Started
+
+### 🎮 Using tsbootstrap
+
+`tsbootstrap` exposes one typed entry point, `bootstrap`, configured with a method
+specification. The same call works for every method.
+
+```python
+import numpy as np
+from tsbootstrap import bootstrap, MovingBlock
+
+x = np.random.default_rng(0).standard_normal(200)
+
+result = bootstrap(x, method=MovingBlock(block_length="auto"), n_bootstraps=999, random_state=0)
+
+samples = result.values()      # (n_bootstraps, n) resampled series
+oob = result.get_oob_mask()    # (n_bootstraps, n) out-of-bag mask
+```
+
+Choose a method spec for the structure you need (block lengths default to the
+automatic Politis-White selection):
+
+```python
+from tsbootstrap import StationaryBlock, ResidualBootstrap, SieveAR, AR, ARIMA, diagnose
+
+bootstrap(x, method=StationaryBlock(avg_block_length="auto"))
+
+# recursive model-based bootstraps (need the model extra: pip install "tsbootstrap[models]")
+bootstrap(x, method=ResidualBootstrap(model=AR(order=2)))
+bootstrap(x, method=ResidualBootstrap(model=ARIMA(order=(1, 1, 1))))
+bootstrap(x, method=SieveAR())
+
+# not sure which fits? ask:
+print(diagnose(x).recommended_methods)
+```
+
+Inputs can be NumPy arrays, lists, or pandas / Polars DataFrames and Series. The
+result is a `BootstrapResult` carrying the samples, provenance metadata, and
+out-of-bag / in-bag primitives. For the sktime ecosystem, the same methods are
+also available as estimator classes (`MovingBlockBootstrap`, `ResidualBootstrap`,
+…) under `tsbootstrap.adapters`.
+
+### 📦 Installation
+
+Requires Python 3.10 or higher.
+
+```sh
+pip install tsbootstrap              # core: i.i.d. and block methods
+pip install "tsbootstrap[models]"    # adds AR / ARIMA / VAR / sieve (statsmodels)
+```
+
+The model-based methods import statsmodels lazily and raise a clear install hint if
+the `models` extra is missing.
+
+## 🧩 Modules
+
+The package is small and layered around the functional core:
+
+| Area | Module(s) | Role |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| Public API | `api.py`, `methods.py`, `results.py`, `errors.py`, `diagnostics.py` | the `bootstrap()` entry point, typed method specs, structured results, error taxonomy, and `diagnose()` |
+| Infrastructure | `rng.py`, `validation.py`, `dispatch.py`, `metadata.py` | deterministic RNG contract, input coercion (incl. the narwhals DataFrame boundary), spec → executor dispatch, method metadata |
+| Block methods | `block/` | vectorized index kernels, true Politis-Romano stationary, energy-normalized tapering, PWSD block length, OOB primitives |
+| Model methods | `model/`, `engines/` | model fitting, stability guards, and recursive AR/ARMA/VAR simulation |
+| Ecosystem | `adapters/` | skbase / sktime estimator classes over the functional core |
+
+
+## 🗺 Roadmap
+
+This is an abridged version; for the complete and evolving list of plans and improvements, see [Issue #144](https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/issues/144).
+
+- **Performance and Scaling**: handling large datasets, distributed backend integration (`Dask`, `Spark`, `Ray`), profiling/optimization
+- **Tuning and AutoML**: adaptive block length, adaptive resampling, evaluation based parameter selection
+- **Real-time and Stream Data**: stream bootstraps, data update interface
+- **Stage 2 `sktime` Integration**: evaluation module, datasets, benchmarks, sktime forecasters in bootstraps
+- **API and Capability Extension**: panel/hierarchical data, exogenous data, update/stream, model state management
+- **Scope Extension (TBD)**: time series augmentation, fully probabilistic models
+
+## 🤝 Contributing
+
+We welcome contributions.
+
+See our [good first issues ](https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/issues?q=is%3Aissue+is%3Aopen+label%3A%22good+first+issue%22)
+for getting started.
+
+Below is a quick start guide to contributing.
+
+### Developer setup
+
+1. Fork the tsbootstrap repository
+
+2. Clone the fork to local:
+```sh
+git clone https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap
+```
+
+3. In the local repository root, set up a python environment, e.g., `venv` or `conda`.
+
+
+4. Editable install via `pip`, including developer dependencies:
+```
+pip install -e ".[dev]"
+```
+
+The editable install ensures that changes to the package are reflected in
+your environment.
+
+5. Set up git hooks and pre-commit:
+```sh
+# Install pre-commit hooks
+pre-commit install
+
+# Configure git to use the project's hooks
+git config core.hooksPath .githooks
+```
+
+This ensures that docs requirements stay in sync with `pyproject.toml` and
+other code quality checks run automatically.
+
+### Verifying the Installation
+
+After installation, you can verify that tsbootstrap has been installed correctly by checking its version or by trying to import it in Python:
+```
+python -c "import tsbootstrap; print(tsbootstrap.__version__)"
+```
+
+This command should output the version number of tsbootstrap without any errors, indicating that the installation was successful.
+
+### Contribution workflow
+
+Please follow these steps:
+
+3. Create a new branch with a descriptive name (e.g., `new-feature-branch` or `bugfix-issue-123`).
+```sh
+git checkout -b new-feature-branch
+```
+4. Make changes to the project's codebase.
+5. Commit your changes to your local branch with a clear commit message that explains the changes you've made.
+```sh
+git commit -m 'Implemented new feature.'
+```
+6. Push your changes to your forked repository on GitHub using the following command
+```sh
+git push origin new-feature-branch
+```
+7. Create a new pull request to the original project repository. In the pull request, describe the changes you've made and why they're necessary.
+The project maintainers will review your changes and provide feedback or merge them into the main branch.
+
+### 🧪 Running Tests
+
+To run all tests, in your developer environment, run:
+
+```sh
+pytest tests/
+```
+
+The sktime adapter classes can be validated with sktime's estimator checks:
+
+```python
+from sktime.utils import check_estimator
+from tsbootstrap.adapters import MovingBlockBootstrap
+
+check_estimator(MovingBlockBootstrap)
+```
+
+### Contribution guide
+
+For more detailed information on how to contribute, please refer to our [CONTRIBUTING.md](https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md)  guide.
+---
+
+## 📄 License
+
+This project is licensed under the `ℹ️  MIT` License. See the [LICENSE](https://docs.github.com/en/communities/setting-up-your-project-for-healthy-contributions/adding-a-license-to-a-repository) file for additional info.
+
+---
+## 👏 Contributors
+
+Thanks goes to these wonderful people:
+
+<!-- ALL-CONTRIBUTORS-LIST:START - Do not remove or modify this section -->
+<!-- prettier-ignore-start -->
+<!-- markdownlint-disable -->
+
+<!-- markdownlint-restore -->
+<!-- prettier-ignore-end -->
+
+<!-- ALL-CONTRIBUTORS-LIST:END -->
+
+This project follows the [all-contributors](https://github.com/all-contributors/all-contributors) specification. Contributions of any kind welcome!
+
+
+---
+
+
+## 📍 Time Series Bootstrapping
+`tsbootstrap` implements bootstrapping methods for time series data. It generates resampled copies of univariate and multivariate series that preserve their chronological order and dependence structure.
+
+### Overview
+Traditional bootstrap methods resample observations independently, which breaks the dependence in a time series: each observation usually depends on the ones before it. Time series bootstraps resample while preserving chronological order and correlation, so the resulting uncertainty estimates stay valid under that dependence.
+
+### Bootstrapping methodology
+`tsbootstrap` resamples either the observations directly (i.i.d. and block methods) or
+the innovations of a fitted model (residual and sieve methods), respecting the
+chronological order and dependence structure of the data.
+
+### Block bootstrap
+Block methods resample blocks of consecutive observations to preserve short-range
+dependence. The block length defaults to the automatic Politis-White (2004) selection.
+
+- **Moving block** (`MovingBlock`): overlapping fixed-length blocks (Kunsch 1989).
+- **Circular block** (`CircularBlock`): blocks wrap around the series end (Politis-Romano 1992).
+- **Stationary block** (`StationaryBlock`): geometric block lengths with independent uniform
+  restart points (Politis-Romano 1994).
+- **Non-overlapping block** (`NonOverlappingBlock`): disjoint blocks (Carlstein 1986).
+- **Tapered block** (`TaperedBlock(window=...)`): blocks weighted by an energy-normalized
+  window (Bartlett, Blackman, Hamming, Hann, or Tukey; Paparoditis-Politis 2001).
+
+### Residual bootstrap
+For dependent data with a good model fit, `ResidualBootstrap(model=...)` regenerates the
+series **recursively** from the fitted dynamics and resampled, centered innovations (not
+`fitted + residuals`). Supported models: `AR`, `ARIMA`, and `VAR` (multivariate). A
+non-stationary fit is refused (or skipped, per `stability_policy`) rather than producing
+explosive paths.
+
+### Sieve bootstrap
+`SieveAR` selects an autoregressive order on the original series, then runs the AR recursion;
+suited to data with autoregressive structure.
+
+### Deferred to a later release
+Markov resampling, the distribution bootstrap, GARCH/volatility models, and
+frequency-domain / seasonal block methods are planned for a future version. The
+statistic-preserving method has been removed.

tsbootstrap-0.2.0/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,289 @@
+<!-- ALL-CONTRIBUTORS-BADGE:START - Do not remove or modify this section -->
+[![All Contributors](https://img.shields.io/github/all-contributors/astrogilda/tsbootstrap?color=ee8449&style=flat-square)](#contributors)
+<!-- ALL-CONTRIBUTORS-BADGE:END -->
+
+
+<div align="center">
+    <div style="float: left; margin-right: 20px;">
+        <img src="https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/blob/main/tsbootstrap_logo.png" width="120" />
+    </div>
+    <h3>Generate bootstrapped samples from time-series data. The full documentation is available <a href="https://tsbootstrap.readthedocs.io/en/latest/">here</a>.</h3>
+    <div style="clear: both;"></div>
+    <br>
+    <p align="center">
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Markdown-000000.svg?stylee&logo=Markdown&logoColor=white" alt="Markdown" />
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Python-3776AB.svg?stylee&logo=Python&logoColor=white" alt="Python" />
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Pytest-0A9EDC.svg?stylee&logo=Pytest&logoColor=white" alt="pytest" />
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/GitHub%20Actions-2088FF.svg?style&logo=GitHub-Actions&logoColor=white" alt="actions" />
+    </p>
+    <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.15227"><img src="https://img.shields.io/static/v1?label=arXiv&message=2404.15227&color=B31B1B&logo=arXiv" alt="preprint">
+    </a>
+    <a href="https://pypi.org/project/tsbootstrap/">
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/pypi/v/tsbootstrap?color=5D6D7E&logo=pypi" alt="pypi-version" />
+    </a>
+    <a href="https://pypi.org/project/tsbootstrap/">
+        <img src="https://img.shields.io/pypi/pyversions/tsbootstrap?color=5D6D7E&logo=python" alt="pypi-python-version" />
+    </a>
+    <a href="https://pepy.tech/project/tsbootstrap">
+        <img src="https://static.pepy.tech/badge/tsbootstrap" alt="Downloads"/>
+    </a>
+    <img src="https://img.shields.io/github/license/eli64s/readme-ai?color=5D6D7E" alt="github-license" />
+    </a>
+    <img src="https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/workflows/CI/badge.svg" alt="Build Status"/>
+    <a href="https://codecov.io/gh/astrogilda/tsbootstrap"><img src="https://codecov.io/gh/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/branch/main/graph/badge.svg" alt="codecov"/></a>
+    <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8226495"><img src="https://zenodo.org/badge/DOI/10.5281/zenodo.8226495.svg" alt="DOI"/></a>
+    <a href="https://codeclimate.com/github/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/maintainability"><img src="https://api.codeclimate.com/v1/badges/d80a0615a8c00f31565c/maintainability" alt="Code Quality"/></a>
+    <img src="https://img.shields.io/github/last-commit/astrogilda/tsbootstrap" alt="Last Commit"/>
+    <img src="https://img.shields.io/github/issues/astrogilda/tsbootstrap" alt="Issues"/>
+    <img src="https://img.shields.io/github/issues-pr/astrogilda/tsbootstrap" alt="Pull Requests"/>
+    <img src="https://img.shields.io/github/v/tag/astrogilda/tsbootstrap" alt="Tag"/>
+</div>
+
+
+
+## 📒 Table of Contents
+
+1. [🚀 Getting Started](#-getting-started)
+2. [🧩 Modules](#-modules)
+3. [🗺 Roadmap](#-roadmap)
+4. [🤝 Contributing](#-contributing)
+5. [📄 License](#-license)
+6. [📍 Time Series Bootstrapping Methods intro](#time-series-bootstrapping)
+7. [👏 Contributors](#-contributors)
+
+
+
+---
+
+## 🚀 Getting Started
+
+### 🎮 Using tsbootstrap
+
+`tsbootstrap` exposes one typed entry point, `bootstrap`, configured with a method
+specification. The same call works for every method.
+
+```python
+import numpy as np
+from tsbootstrap import bootstrap, MovingBlock
+
+x = np.random.default_rng(0).standard_normal(200)
+
+result = bootstrap(x, method=MovingBlock(block_length="auto"), n_bootstraps=999, random_state=0)
+
+samples = result.values()      # (n_bootstraps, n) resampled series
+oob = result.get_oob_mask()    # (n_bootstraps, n) out-of-bag mask
+```
+
+Choose a method spec for the structure you need (block lengths default to the
+automatic Politis-White selection):
+
+```python
+from tsbootstrap import StationaryBlock, ResidualBootstrap, SieveAR, AR, ARIMA, diagnose
+
+bootstrap(x, method=StationaryBlock(avg_block_length="auto"))
+
+# recursive model-based bootstraps (need the model extra: pip install "tsbootstrap[models]")
+bootstrap(x, method=ResidualBootstrap(model=AR(order=2)))
+bootstrap(x, method=ResidualBootstrap(model=ARIMA(order=(1, 1, 1))))
+bootstrap(x, method=SieveAR())
+
+# not sure which fits? ask:
+print(diagnose(x).recommended_methods)
+```
+
+Inputs can be NumPy arrays, lists, or pandas / Polars DataFrames and Series. The
+result is a `BootstrapResult` carrying the samples, provenance metadata, and
+out-of-bag / in-bag primitives. For the sktime ecosystem, the same methods are
+also available as estimator classes (`MovingBlockBootstrap`, `ResidualBootstrap`,
+…) under `tsbootstrap.adapters`.
+
+### 📦 Installation
+
+Requires Python 3.10 or higher.
+
+```sh
+pip install tsbootstrap              # core: i.i.d. and block methods
+pip install "tsbootstrap[models]"    # adds AR / ARIMA / VAR / sieve (statsmodels)
+```
+
+The model-based methods import statsmodels lazily and raise a clear install hint if
+the `models` extra is missing.
+
+## 🧩 Modules
+
+The package is small and layered around the functional core:
+
+| Area | Module(s) | Role |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| Public API | `api.py`, `methods.py`, `results.py`, `errors.py`, `diagnostics.py` | the `bootstrap()` entry point, typed method specs, structured results, error taxonomy, and `diagnose()` |
+| Infrastructure | `rng.py`, `validation.py`, `dispatch.py`, `metadata.py` | deterministic RNG contract, input coercion (incl. the narwhals DataFrame boundary), spec → executor dispatch, method metadata |
+| Block methods | `block/` | vectorized index kernels, true Politis-Romano stationary, energy-normalized tapering, PWSD block length, OOB primitives |
+| Model methods | `model/`, `engines/` | model fitting, stability guards, and recursive AR/ARMA/VAR simulation |
+| Ecosystem | `adapters/` | skbase / sktime estimator classes over the functional core |
+
+
+## 🗺 Roadmap
+
+This is an abridged version; for the complete and evolving list of plans and improvements, see [Issue #144](https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/issues/144).
+
+- **Performance and Scaling**: handling large datasets, distributed backend integration (`Dask`, `Spark`, `Ray`), profiling/optimization
+- **Tuning and AutoML**: adaptive block length, adaptive resampling, evaluation based parameter selection
+- **Real-time and Stream Data**: stream bootstraps, data update interface
+- **Stage 2 `sktime` Integration**: evaluation module, datasets, benchmarks, sktime forecasters in bootstraps
+- **API and Capability Extension**: panel/hierarchical data, exogenous data, update/stream, model state management
+- **Scope Extension (TBD)**: time series augmentation, fully probabilistic models
+
+## 🤝 Contributing
+
+We welcome contributions.
+
+See our [good first issues ](https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/issues?q=is%3Aissue+is%3Aopen+label%3A%22good+first+issue%22)
+for getting started.
+
+Below is a quick start guide to contributing.
+
+### Developer setup
+
+1. Fork the tsbootstrap repository
+
+2. Clone the fork to local:
+```sh
+git clone https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap
+```
+
+3. In the local repository root, set up a python environment, e.g., `venv` or `conda`.
+
+
+4. Editable install via `pip`, including developer dependencies:
+```
+pip install -e ".[dev]"
+```
+
+The editable install ensures that changes to the package are reflected in
+your environment.
+
+5. Set up git hooks and pre-commit:
+```sh
+# Install pre-commit hooks
+pre-commit install
+
+# Configure git to use the project's hooks
+git config core.hooksPath .githooks
+```
+
+This ensures that docs requirements stay in sync with `pyproject.toml` and
+other code quality checks run automatically.
+
+### Verifying the Installation
+
+After installation, you can verify that tsbootstrap has been installed correctly by checking its version or by trying to import it in Python:
+```
+python -c "import tsbootstrap; print(tsbootstrap.__version__)"
+```
+
+This command should output the version number of tsbootstrap without any errors, indicating that the installation was successful.
+
+### Contribution workflow
+
+Please follow these steps:
+
+3. Create a new branch with a descriptive name (e.g., `new-feature-branch` or `bugfix-issue-123`).
+```sh
+git checkout -b new-feature-branch
+```
+4. Make changes to the project's codebase.
+5. Commit your changes to your local branch with a clear commit message that explains the changes you've made.
+```sh
+git commit -m 'Implemented new feature.'
+```
+6. Push your changes to your forked repository on GitHub using the following command
+```sh
+git push origin new-feature-branch
+```
+7. Create a new pull request to the original project repository. In the pull request, describe the changes you've made and why they're necessary.
+The project maintainers will review your changes and provide feedback or merge them into the main branch.
+
+### 🧪 Running Tests
+
+To run all tests, in your developer environment, run:
+
+```sh
+pytest tests/
+```
+
+The sktime adapter classes can be validated with sktime's estimator checks:
+
+```python
+from sktime.utils import check_estimator
+from tsbootstrap.adapters import MovingBlockBootstrap
+
+check_estimator(MovingBlockBootstrap)
+```
+
+### Contribution guide
+
+For more detailed information on how to contribute, please refer to our [CONTRIBUTING.md](https://github.com/astrogilda/tsbootstrap/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md)  guide.
+---
+
+## 📄 License
+
+This project is licensed under the `ℹ️  MIT` License. See the [LICENSE](https://docs.github.com/en/communities/setting-up-your-project-for-healthy-contributions/adding-a-license-to-a-repository) file for additional info.
+
+---
+## 👏 Contributors
+
+Thanks goes to these wonderful people:
+
+<!-- ALL-CONTRIBUTORS-LIST:START - Do not remove or modify this section -->
+<!-- prettier-ignore-start -->
+<!-- markdownlint-disable -->
+
+<!-- markdownlint-restore -->
+<!-- prettier-ignore-end -->
+
+<!-- ALL-CONTRIBUTORS-LIST:END -->
+
+This project follows the [all-contributors](https://github.com/all-contributors/all-contributors) specification. Contributions of any kind welcome!
+
+
+---
+
+
+## 📍 Time Series Bootstrapping
+`tsbootstrap` implements bootstrapping methods for time series data. It generates resampled copies of univariate and multivariate series that preserve their chronological order and dependence structure.
+
+### Overview
+Traditional bootstrap methods resample observations independently, which breaks the dependence in a time series: each observation usually depends on the ones before it. Time series bootstraps resample while preserving chronological order and correlation, so the resulting uncertainty estimates stay valid under that dependence.
+
+### Bootstrapping methodology
+`tsbootstrap` resamples either the observations directly (i.i.d. and block methods) or
+the innovations of a fitted model (residual and sieve methods), respecting the
+chronological order and dependence structure of the data.
+
+### Block bootstrap
+Block methods resample blocks of consecutive observations to preserve short-range
+dependence. The block length defaults to the automatic Politis-White (2004) selection.
+
+- **Moving block** (`MovingBlock`): overlapping fixed-length blocks (Kunsch 1989).
+- **Circular block** (`CircularBlock`): blocks wrap around the series end (Politis-Romano 1992).
+- **Stationary block** (`StationaryBlock`): geometric block lengths with independent uniform
+  restart points (Politis-Romano 1994).
+- **Non-overlapping block** (`NonOverlappingBlock`): disjoint blocks (Carlstein 1986).
+- **Tapered block** (`TaperedBlock(window=...)`): blocks weighted by an energy-normalized
+  window (Bartlett, Blackman, Hamming, Hann, or Tukey; Paparoditis-Politis 2001).
+
+### Residual bootstrap
+For dependent data with a good model fit, `ResidualBootstrap(model=...)` regenerates the
+series **recursively** from the fitted dynamics and resampled, centered innovations (not
+`fitted + residuals`). Supported models: `AR`, `ARIMA`, and `VAR` (multivariate). A
+non-stationary fit is refused (or skipped, per `stability_policy`) rather than producing
+explosive paths.
+
+### Sieve bootstrap
+`SieveAR` selects an autoregressive order on the original series, then runs the AR recursion;
+suited to data with autoregressive structure.
+
+### Deferred to a later release
+Markov resampling, the distribution bootstrap, GARCH/volatility models, and
+frequency-domain / seasonal block methods are planned for a future version. The
+statistic-preserving method has been removed.