pricecast 0.1.0__tar.gz

pricecast-0.1.0/LICENSE

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+MIT License
+
+Copyright (c) 2026 Mattéo Hauglustaine
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+SOFTWARE.

pricecast-0.1.0/PKG-INFO

@@ -0,0 +1,177 @@
+Metadata-Version: 2.4
+Name: pricecast
+Version: 0.1.0
+Summary: Synthetic hourly electricity price years for prospective energy system studies
+Author-email: Matteo Hauglustaine <matteo@abeo.be>
+License-Expression: MIT
+Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast
+Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast
+Project-URL: Issues, https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/issues
+Keywords: electricity,day-ahead price,price profile,synthetic data,energy system modelling,techno-economic analysis,duck curve,time series
+Classifier: Development Status :: 4 - Beta
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.9
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.10
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.11
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12
+Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering
+Requires-Python: >=3.9
+Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
+License-File: LICENSE
+Requires-Dist: numpy>=1.21
+Requires-Dist: pandas>=1.3
+Provides-Extra: entsoe
+Requires-Dist: entsoe-py>=0.6; extra == "entsoe"
+Provides-Extra: plot
+Requires-Dist: matplotlib>=3.5; extra == "plot"
+Provides-Extra: test
+Requires-Dist: pytest>=7.0; extra == "test"
+Provides-Extra: docs
+Requires-Dist: mkdocs>=1.5; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: mkdocs-material>=9.0; extra == "docs"
+Requires-Dist: mkdocstrings[python]>=0.24; extra == "docs"
+Provides-Extra: dev
+Requires-Dist: pricecast[docs,entsoe,plot,test]; extra == "dev"
+Dynamic: license-file
+
+[![PyPI version](https://img.shields.io/pypi/v/pricecast)](https://pypi.org/project/pricecast/)
+[![Documentation Status](https://img.shields.io/readthedocs/loadcast)](https://pricecast.readthedocs.io/en/latest/)
+[![Build Status](https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/actions/workflows/tests.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/actions/workflows/tests.yml)
+[![License](https://img.shields.io/github/license/Matt-haug/pricecast)](https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/blob/main/LICENSE)
+[![DOI](https://img.shields.io/badge/DOI-10.5281%2Fzenodo.23264989-blue)](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23264989)
+
+# pricecast
+
+**Synthetic hourly electricity price time-series for prospective energy system studies**
+
+```python
+import pricecast
+from pricecast.entsoe import fetch_year
+
+prices, drivers = fetch_year("BE", 2025)          # day-ahead price, load, solar, wind
+model = pricecast.load("BE")                      # or pricecast.fit(prices, drivers)
+
+future = pricecast.scale_drivers(drivers, solar=1.39, wind=1.38, load=1.30)
+year = model.predict(future)                      # the shape of a 2030 year
+year = pricecast.rescale_to_level(year, level=88) # its level, from a fuel-and-carbon scenario
+```
+
+Returns an hourly series of day-ahead prices in EUR/MWh, ready to feed an LP or
+MILP design model: a heat pump with storage, a battery, a thermal store, an
+electrolyser.
+
+![The average day of 2025: the model keeps the duck curve that a reused year cannot know about](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/main/docs/figures/daily_shape_2025.png)
+
+*The average day of 2025, each series over its own annual mean. The model (fitted
+on 2023-24, driven by 2025's load, solar and wind) keeps the midday trough;
+reusing a past year cannot know about the panels installed since.*
+
+## Why
+
+A study that sizes equipment for 2030 needs a 2030 price year. The usual
+stand-in is a past year reused as it was, which carries the past's solar fleet,
+the past's price level, and the past's weather. `pricecast` instead generates the
+year from what a scenario *does* provide - installed solar and wind, demand and
+fuel prices - so the features a design reacts to follow the scenario:
+
+- how deep the price falls at midday, and how far it climbs in the evening;
+- what a solar kilowatt-hour is worth against the average one;
+- what the electricity for a kilowatt-hour of heat costs.
+
+The model is one least-squares regression of hourly price on the clock and on
+three drivers - load, solar and wind generation - fitted on recent years. A full
+year is generated in one shot, with no autoregression on the price.
+
+**It is not a forecaster.** Nobody has next decade's hourly solar output, so it
+does not compete with forecasting models. It produces a plausible *shape* and
+leaves the *level* to an outside scenario, because the level is set by fuel and
+carbon prices and cannot be extrapolated from price history.
+
+## What it has been tested on
+
+Five European markets (BE, DE, FR, ES, PL), fitted on 2023-24 and judged on 2025
+by what a design optimiser decides, not by hourly error:
+
+| | this model | last year's prices reused |
+|---|---|---|
+| daily storage, share of achievable arbitrage captured | 88% | 60% |
+| household with PV, battery and heat pump, share of savings captured | 93% | 82% |
+| sizing penalty with the price level given, data 1 / 2 / 4 / 6 years old (EUR/yr) | 2 / 29 / 16 / 7 | 8 / 94 / 147 / 198 |
+| midday price / annual mean, mean absolute error across countries | 0.09 | 0.11 |
+| solar value factor, mean absolute error | 0.07 | 0.11 |
+
+Full results, and where it falls short, are in the accompanying paper.
+
+## Building a future year
+
+The [recipe](docs/recipe.md), in short:
+
+1. **Fit** on the two most recent complete years, or start from `pricecast.load`.
+2. **Choose one weather year** and take every weather-dependent input from it:
+   the model's drivers, and your asset's PV output, heat demand and ambient
+   temperature. Prices respond to the same weather; mixing years makes heat
+   look 2-10% cheaper than it is.
+3. **Scale the drivers** by target-over-weather-year capacity and demand
+   (`scale_drivers`), from ERAA, TYNDP or national plans.
+4. **Run the model** (`PriceModel.predict`).
+5. **Set the level** as the market's recent ratio times a gas plant's running
+   cost in the target year (`level_ratio`, `gas_plant_cost`,
+   `rescale_to_level`). **Err low**: an overestimated level costs a design far
+   more than an underestimated one.
+6. **Check the reach** (`share_beyond_training`): where several percent of
+   hours lie beyond the net load the model was fitted on, floor the year at the
+   training years' 1% price quantile (`training_floor`).
+
+![2030 built from ERAA 2025 drivers and a gas-plant level, on 2025 weather](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/main/docs/figures/year_2030.png)
+
+*2030 from ERAA 2025 capacities and demand on 2025 weather. Germany and Poland
+(13% and 7% of hours beyond the training net load) need the floor.*
+
+## What it does not do
+
+- **Negative hours.** It smooths away part of the midday collapse in
+  solar-heavy markets: 1.8% negative hours against 5.7% in reality in 2025. The
+  residual noise (`noise=True`) restores the share, but in hours uncorrelated
+  with the real ones - use it for revenue estimates, never for sizing.
+- **Extrapolation.** It is linear in its drivers; far beyond them it must be
+  floored, and it has no storage driver, so future spreads are upper bounds.
+- **Drifting coefficients.** The price response to solar steepens as the fleet
+  grows. Correcting the coefficients for that was tested and does not pay;
+  refit on recent years instead.
+- **Other markets.** Day-ahead only - not intraday, balancing or forward.
+
+## Install
+
+```bash
+pip install git+https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast
+pip install "pricecast[entsoe] @ git+https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast"   # with ENTSO-E download
+```
+
+Requires Python 3.9+, numpy and pandas. Downloading data needs `entsoe-py` and a
+free ENTSO-E Transparency Platform token, passed as `token=` or set as the
+`ENTSOE_TOKEN` environment variable.
+
+## Data
+
+The shipped models are fitted on ENTSO-E Transparency Platform data for
+2024-2025: day-ahead prices, actual total load and actual generation per
+production type. What ships is the fitted coefficients only; the raw series are
+not redistributed and are downloaded with your own token.
+
+## Contributing
+
+Issues and pull requests are welcome - see [CONTRIBUTING.md](CONTRIBUTING.md).
+Reports that a generated year disagrees with a market you know well are
+especially welcome. This project follows the
+[Contributor Covenant](CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md). Generative AI was used in building
+it; see [AI_USAGE.md](AI_USAGE.md).
+
+## Citing
+
+Use the "Cite this repository" button, or `CITATION.cff`. Each release is
+archived on Zenodo with a DOI.
+
+## Licence
+
+MIT - see [LICENSE](LICENSE). Changes are recorded in [CHANGELOG.md](CHANGELOG.md).

pricecast-0.1.0/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
+[![PyPI version](https://img.shields.io/pypi/v/pricecast)](https://pypi.org/project/pricecast/)
+[![Documentation Status](https://img.shields.io/readthedocs/loadcast)](https://pricecast.readthedocs.io/en/latest/)
+[![Build Status](https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/actions/workflows/tests.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/actions/workflows/tests.yml)
+[![License](https://img.shields.io/github/license/Matt-haug/pricecast)](https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/blob/main/LICENSE)
+[![DOI](https://img.shields.io/badge/DOI-10.5281%2Fzenodo.23264989-blue)](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23264989)
+
+# pricecast
+
+**Synthetic hourly electricity price time-series for prospective energy system studies**
+
+```python
+import pricecast
+from pricecast.entsoe import fetch_year
+
+prices, drivers = fetch_year("BE", 2025)          # day-ahead price, load, solar, wind
+model = pricecast.load("BE")                      # or pricecast.fit(prices, drivers)
+
+future = pricecast.scale_drivers(drivers, solar=1.39, wind=1.38, load=1.30)
+year = model.predict(future)                      # the shape of a 2030 year
+year = pricecast.rescale_to_level(year, level=88) # its level, from a fuel-and-carbon scenario
+```
+
+Returns an hourly series of day-ahead prices in EUR/MWh, ready to feed an LP or
+MILP design model: a heat pump with storage, a battery, a thermal store, an
+electrolyser.
+
+![The average day of 2025: the model keeps the duck curve that a reused year cannot know about](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/main/docs/figures/daily_shape_2025.png)
+
+*The average day of 2025, each series over its own annual mean. The model (fitted
+on 2023-24, driven by 2025's load, solar and wind) keeps the midday trough;
+reusing a past year cannot know about the panels installed since.*
+
+## Why
+
+A study that sizes equipment for 2030 needs a 2030 price year. The usual
+stand-in is a past year reused as it was, which carries the past's solar fleet,
+the past's price level, and the past's weather. `pricecast` instead generates the
+year from what a scenario *does* provide - installed solar and wind, demand and
+fuel prices - so the features a design reacts to follow the scenario:
+
+- how deep the price falls at midday, and how far it climbs in the evening;
+- what a solar kilowatt-hour is worth against the average one;
+- what the electricity for a kilowatt-hour of heat costs.
+
+The model is one least-squares regression of hourly price on the clock and on
+three drivers - load, solar and wind generation - fitted on recent years. A full
+year is generated in one shot, with no autoregression on the price.
+
+**It is not a forecaster.** Nobody has next decade's hourly solar output, so it
+does not compete with forecasting models. It produces a plausible *shape* and
+leaves the *level* to an outside scenario, because the level is set by fuel and
+carbon prices and cannot be extrapolated from price history.
+
+## What it has been tested on
+
+Five European markets (BE, DE, FR, ES, PL), fitted on 2023-24 and judged on 2025
+by what a design optimiser decides, not by hourly error:
+
+| | this model | last year's prices reused |
+|---|---|---|
+| daily storage, share of achievable arbitrage captured | 88% | 60% |
+| household with PV, battery and heat pump, share of savings captured | 93% | 82% |
+| sizing penalty with the price level given, data 1 / 2 / 4 / 6 years old (EUR/yr) | 2 / 29 / 16 / 7 | 8 / 94 / 147 / 198 |
+| midday price / annual mean, mean absolute error across countries | 0.09 | 0.11 |
+| solar value factor, mean absolute error | 0.07 | 0.11 |
+
+Full results, and where it falls short, are in the accompanying paper.
+
+## Building a future year
+
+The [recipe](docs/recipe.md), in short:
+
+1. **Fit** on the two most recent complete years, or start from `pricecast.load`.
+2. **Choose one weather year** and take every weather-dependent input from it:
+   the model's drivers, and your asset's PV output, heat demand and ambient
+   temperature. Prices respond to the same weather; mixing years makes heat
+   look 2-10% cheaper than it is.
+3. **Scale the drivers** by target-over-weather-year capacity and demand
+   (`scale_drivers`), from ERAA, TYNDP or national plans.
+4. **Run the model** (`PriceModel.predict`).
+5. **Set the level** as the market's recent ratio times a gas plant's running
+   cost in the target year (`level_ratio`, `gas_plant_cost`,
+   `rescale_to_level`). **Err low**: an overestimated level costs a design far
+   more than an underestimated one.
+6. **Check the reach** (`share_beyond_training`): where several percent of
+   hours lie beyond the net load the model was fitted on, floor the year at the
+   training years' 1% price quantile (`training_floor`).
+
+![2030 built from ERAA 2025 drivers and a gas-plant level, on 2025 weather](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/main/docs/figures/year_2030.png)
+
+*2030 from ERAA 2025 capacities and demand on 2025 weather. Germany and Poland
+(13% and 7% of hours beyond the training net load) need the floor.*
+
+## What it does not do
+
+- **Negative hours.** It smooths away part of the midday collapse in
+  solar-heavy markets: 1.8% negative hours against 5.7% in reality in 2025. The
+  residual noise (`noise=True`) restores the share, but in hours uncorrelated
+  with the real ones - use it for revenue estimates, never for sizing.
+- **Extrapolation.** It is linear in its drivers; far beyond them it must be
+  floored, and it has no storage driver, so future spreads are upper bounds.
+- **Drifting coefficients.** The price response to solar steepens as the fleet
+  grows. Correcting the coefficients for that was tested and does not pay;
+  refit on recent years instead.
+- **Other markets.** Day-ahead only - not intraday, balancing or forward.
+
+## Install
+
+```bash
+pip install git+https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast
+pip install "pricecast[entsoe] @ git+https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast"   # with ENTSO-E download
+```
+
+Requires Python 3.9+, numpy and pandas. Downloading data needs `entsoe-py` and a
+free ENTSO-E Transparency Platform token, passed as `token=` or set as the
+`ENTSOE_TOKEN` environment variable.
+
+## Data
+
+The shipped models are fitted on ENTSO-E Transparency Platform data for
+2024-2025: day-ahead prices, actual total load and actual generation per
+production type. What ships is the fitted coefficients only; the raw series are
+not redistributed and are downloaded with your own token.
+
+## Contributing
+
+Issues and pull requests are welcome - see [CONTRIBUTING.md](CONTRIBUTING.md).
+Reports that a generated year disagrees with a market you know well are
+especially welcome. This project follows the
+[Contributor Covenant](CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md). Generative AI was used in building
+it; see [AI_USAGE.md](AI_USAGE.md).
+
+## Citing
+
+Use the "Cite this repository" button, or `CITATION.cff`. Each release is
+archived on Zenodo with a DOI.
+
+## Licence
+
+MIT - see [LICENSE](LICENSE). Changes are recorded in [CHANGELOG.md](CHANGELOG.md).

pricecast-0.1.0/pyproject.toml

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+[build-system]
+requires = ["setuptools>=77", "wheel"]
+build-backend = "setuptools.build_meta"
+
+[project]
+name = "pricecast"
+version = "0.1.0"
+description = "Synthetic hourly electricity price years for prospective energy system studies"
+readme = "README.md"
+requires-python = ">=3.9"
+license = "MIT"
+authors = [
+    { name = "Matteo Hauglustaine", email = "matteo@abeo.be" },
+]
+keywords = [
+    "electricity",
+    "day-ahead price",
+    "price profile",
+    "synthetic data",
+    "energy system modelling",
+    "techno-economic analysis",
+    "duck curve",
+    "time series",
+]
+classifiers = [
+    "Development Status :: 4 - Beta",
+    "Intended Audience :: Science/Research",
+    "Programming Language :: Python :: 3",
+    "Programming Language :: Python :: 3.9",
+    "Programming Language :: Python :: 3.10",
+    "Programming Language :: Python :: 3.11",
+    "Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12",
+    "Topic :: Scientific/Engineering",
+]
+dependencies = [
+    "numpy>=1.21",
+    "pandas>=1.3",
+]
+
+[project.optional-dependencies]
+entsoe = ["entsoe-py>=0.6"]
+plot = ["matplotlib>=3.5"]
+test = ["pytest>=7.0"]
+docs = ["mkdocs>=1.5", "mkdocs-material>=9.0", "mkdocstrings[python]>=0.24"]
+dev = ["pricecast[entsoe,plot,test,docs]"]
+
+[project.urls]
+Homepage = "https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast"
+Repository = "https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast"
+Issues = "https://github.com/Matt-haug/pricecast/issues"
+
+[tool.setuptools.packages.find]
+where = ["src"]
+
+[tool.setuptools.package-data]
+pricecast = ["data/*.json"]
+
+[tool.pytest.ini_options]
+testpaths = ["tests"]
+addopts = "-q"

pricecast-0.1.0/setup.cfg

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+[egg_info]
+tag_build = 
+tag_date = 0
+

pricecast-0.1.0/src/pricecast/__init__.py

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+"""pricecast -- synthetic hourly electricity price years for prospective studies.
+
+A full year of hourly day-ahead prices, generated in one shot from three
+physical drivers -- load, solar and wind generation -- by a regression fitted
+on recent years. It is built to be an *input* to LP and MILP design studies
+(heat pumps, batteries, thermal stores, electrolysers), not to forecast
+tomorrow's price.
+
+    import pricecast
+
+    model = pricecast.fit(prices, drivers)            # or pricecast.load("BE")
+    year = model.predict(future_drivers)              # the shape of the year
+    year = pricecast.rescale_to_level(year, level=80) # the level, from outside
+
+What it is for
+--------------
+Because the price is driven by physical quantities, a scenario can be posed
+directly: double the solar fleet, grow the demand, and read off what happens to
+the *shape* of the price year -- the midday trough, the evening ramp, the value
+of a solar kilowatt-hour. The level of the year is set from outside, from a
+fuel-and-carbon scenario, because it cannot be extrapolated from price history.
+
+What it is not
+--------------
+Not a forecaster: there are no future solar and wind series to forecast from.
+It smooths away part of the midday price collapse in solar-heavy markets and
+produces too few negative hours unless its residual noise is switched on --
+which should stay off for sizing. It is linear in its drivers, so far outside
+the range it was fitted on it must be floored (`share_beyond_training`).
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from .features import DEFAULT_FEATURES, DRIVERS, design_matrix
+from .model import PriceModel, fit, residual_noise
+from .pretrained import available, load
+from .scenario import (
+    CCGT_EFFICIENCY,
+    GAS_EMISSION_FACTOR,
+    gas_plant_cost,
+    level_ratio,
+    mid_year_capacity,
+    net_load,
+    rescale_to_level,
+    scale_drivers,
+    share_beyond_training,
+    training_floor,
+)
+from .structure import METRICS, compare, lay_on_calendar, structure_metrics
+
+__version__ = "0.1.0"
+
+__all__ = [
+    "CCGT_EFFICIENCY", "DEFAULT_FEATURES", "DRIVERS", "GAS_EMISSION_FACTOR",
+    "METRICS", "PriceModel", "available", "compare", "design_matrix", "fit",
+    "gas_plant_cost", "lay_on_calendar", "level_ratio", "load",
+    "mid_year_capacity", "net_load", "rescale_to_level", "residual_noise",
+    "scale_drivers", "share_beyond_training", "structure_metrics",
+    "training_floor", "__version__",
+]

pricecast-0.1.0/src/pricecast/data/BE.json

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+{
+ "coefficients": {
+  "const": -56.5235359601092,
+  "hour_1": -0.7669196170514694,
+  "hour_2": -2.731116500299967,
+  "hour_3": -3.4527653674331056,
+  "hour_4": -1.6429779999073855,
+  "hour_5": 0.7686290646237683,
+  "hour_6": 2.595466752009719,
+  "hour_7": -3.1358589017332994,
+  "hour_8": -10.676045837259961,
+  "hour_9": -14.506601010880328,
+  "hour_10": -16.673921806288583,
+  "hour_11": -18.520858353391933,
+  "hour_12": -18.298984811653252,
+  "hour_13": -13.698092038253144,
+  "hour_14": -8.675930491839814,
+  "hour_15": -3.661220973966519,
+  "hour_16": 5.2232791877790055,
+  "hour_17": 15.749246737076014,
+  "hour_18": 17.400630672850472,
+  "hour_19": 9.296905386332488,
+  "hour_20": 4.1710832202910435,
+  "hour_21": 1.1066447217502757,
+  "hour_22": -0.32508525239284314,
+  "hour_23": -0.49413458536332555,
+  "dow_0": 9.264707146449423,
+  "dow_1": 8.976551496191302,
+  "dow_2": 8.43460328506335,
+  "dow_3": 6.333805991988828,
+  "dow_4": 5.728469942510179,
+  "dow_5": 2.6026486669747912,
+  "load": 0.020011661479056832,
+  "solar": -0.017238509794863417,
+  "wind": -0.018118779297168295,
+  "net_load_sq": -2.1177924502957524e-07
+ },
+ "residual_std": 27.2859419579615,
+ "student_df": 4.2522262189900415,
+ "features": {
+  "hour_dummies": true,
+  "weekday_dummies": true,
+  "net_load_curvature": true,
+  "driver_lags": [],
+  "timezone": "UTC"
+ },
+ "metadata": {
+  "country": "BE",
+  "bidding_zone": "BE",
+  "train_years": [
+   2024,
+   2025
+  ],
+  "hours": 17544,
+  "source": "ENTSO-E Transparency Platform: day-ahead prices, actual total load, actual generation per production type (solar; wind onshore + offshore), hourly means",
+  "fitted": "2026-10-09",
+  "pricecast_version": "0.1.0",
+  "r2_in_sample": 0.645
+ }
+}

pricecast-0.1.0/src/pricecast/data/DE.json

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+{
+ "coefficients": {
+  "const": 7.19026510279194,
+  "hour_1": -1.20148543350422,
+  "hour_2": -2.767557895420281,
+  "hour_3": -3.169483224275901,
+  "hour_4": -0.14403996269299663,
+  "hour_5": 5.268354869113266,
+  "hour_6": 8.805548839332554,
+  "hour_7": 9.178618955644064,
+  "hour_8": 6.862625763288568,
+  "hour_9": 5.06106822195469,
+  "hour_10": 3.13431433336983,
+  "hour_11": 0.3874876888249261,
+  "hour_12": -0.3579715679936854,
+  "hour_13": 1.4653212233822654,
+  "hour_14": 4.1527596040978265,
+  "hour_15": 8.399679937223057,
+  "hour_16": 15.501495821102045,
+  "hour_17": 21.82537980978079,
+  "hour_18": 18.968835983927757,
+  "hour_19": 6.8344665793981125,
+  "hour_20": 1.06408943971504,
+  "hour_21": -0.26925928084918693,
+  "hour_22": 0.4301775232787318,
+  "hour_23": 0.9847530077836216,
+  "dow_0": 4.52046221906403,
+  "dow_1": 5.354188120736446,
+  "dow_2": 4.519355385955019,
+  "dow_3": 2.9186525163558947,
+  "dow_4": 3.1473642291647206,
+  "dow_5": 2.9664983842534376,
+  "load": 0.0022518423956802624,
+  "solar": -0.0027591543389505445,
+  "wind": -0.0023582761389554195,
+  "net_load_sq": 6.597765889182483e-09
+ },
+ "residual_std": 28.829962242404854,
+ "student_df": 4.2,
+ "features": {
+  "hour_dummies": true,
+  "weekday_dummies": true,
+  "net_load_curvature": true,
+  "driver_lags": [],
+  "timezone": "UTC"
+ },
+ "metadata": {
+  "country": "DE",
+  "bidding_zone": "DE_LU",
+  "train_years": [
+   2024,
+   2025
+  ],
+  "hours": 17544,
+  "source": "ENTSO-E Transparency Platform: day-ahead prices, actual total load, actual generation per production type (solar; wind onshore + offshore), hourly means",
+  "fitted": "2026-10-09",
+  "pricecast_version": "0.1.0",
+  "r2_in_sample": 0.7006
+ }
+}

pricecast-0.1.0/src/pricecast/data/ES.json

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+{
+ "coefficients": {
+  "const": -68.94520315102986,
+  "hour_1": 2.320155607076745,
+  "hour_2": 2.5050613582949826,
+  "hour_3": 1.8798222606992945,
+  "hour_4": -0.8283885716266107,
+  "hour_5": -5.4451690988078,
+  "hour_6": -11.433150624700835,
+  "hour_7": -14.159816410276242,
+  "hour_8": -13.889161759628301,
+  "hour_9": -10.944550285386548,
+  "hour_10": -8.048337710439503,
+  "hour_11": -7.456152458198253,
+  "hour_12": -8.279015036613128,
+  "hour_13": -6.669495626779215,
+  "hour_14": -3.86999751808008,
+  "hour_15": -1.4653887129495744,
+  "hour_16": -3.034383058522941,
+  "hour_17": -6.727737759258486,
+  "hour_18": -12.90116969919224,
+  "hour_19": -17.297175837922904,
+  "hour_20": -22.455224904517042,
+  "hour_21": -17.25102664098335,
+  "hour_22": -8.764447369468675,
+  "hour_23": -4.0222397937104,
+  "dow_0": -5.155731171679184,
+  "dow_1": -6.476037042409885,
+  "dow_2": -5.680993359830503,
+  "dow_3": -4.964853006794855,
+  "dow_4": -4.594212528162333,
+  "dow_5": -0.07443642823720201,
+  "load": 0.008847771880458202,
+  "solar": -0.006384871806866504,
+  "wind": -0.007110465646601332,
+  "net_load_sq": -3.9232280091283656e-08
+ },
+ "residual_std": 28.049732208308708,
+ "student_df": 30.0,
+ "features": {
+  "hour_dummies": true,
+  "weekday_dummies": true,
+  "net_load_curvature": true,
+  "driver_lags": [],
+  "timezone": "UTC"
+ },
+ "metadata": {
+  "country": "ES",
+  "bidding_zone": "ES",
+  "train_years": [
+   2024,
+   2025
+  ],
+  "hours": 17544,
+  "source": "ENTSO-E Transparency Platform: day-ahead prices, actual total load, actual generation per production type (solar; wind onshore + offshore), hourly means",
+  "fitted": "2026-10-09",
+  "pricecast_version": "0.1.0",
+  "r2_in_sample": 0.6406
+ }
+}