prediction-market-agent-tooling 0.67.4.dev992__tar.gz → 0.68.0__tar.gz

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.67.4.dev992 → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.68.0}/PKG-INFO

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.3
 Name: prediction-market-agent-tooling
-Version: 0.67.4.dev992
+Version: 0.68.0
 Summary: Tools to benchmark, deploy and monitor prediction market agents.
 Author: Gnosis
 Requires-Python: >=3.10,<3.13

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.67.4.dev992 → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.68.0}/prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/betting_strategy.py

@@ -387,6 +387,9 @@ class BinaryKellyBettingStrategy(BettingStrategy):
         answer: CategoricalProbabilisticAnswer,
         override_p_yes: float | None = None,
     ) -> BinaryKellyBet:
+        if not market.is_binary:
+            raise ValueError("This strategy is usable only with binary markets.")
+
         estimated_p_yes = (
             answer.probability_for_market_outcome(direction)
             if not override_p_yes
@@ -457,7 +460,9 @@ class BinaryKellyBettingStrategy(BettingStrategy):
         amounts = {
             bet_outcome: BettingStrategy.cap_to_profitable_bet_amount(
                 market, market.get_token_in_usd(kelly_bet_size), bet_outcome
-            ),
+            )
+            if kelly_bet_size > 0
+            else USD(0),
         }
         target_position = Position(market_id=market.id, amounts_current=amounts)
         trades = self._build_rebalance_trades_from_positions(
@@ -512,9 +517,15 @@ class BinaryKellyBettingStrategy(BettingStrategy):
             )
             return kelly_bet_size
 
-        pool_balances = [i.as_outcome_wei for i in market.outcome_token_pool.values()]
+        filtered_pool = {
+            outcome: pool_value
+            for outcome, pool_value in market.outcome_token_pool.items()
+            if INVALID_OUTCOME_LOWERCASE_IDENTIFIER not in outcome.lower()
+        }
+
+        pool_balances = [i.as_outcome_wei for i in filtered_pool.values()]
         # stay float for compatibility with `minimize_scalar`
-        total_pool_balance = sum([i.value for i in market.outcome_token_pool.values()])
+        total_pool_balance = sum([i.value for i in filtered_pool.values()])
 
         # The bounds below have been found to work heuristically.
         optimized_bet_amount = minimize_scalar(

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.67.4.dev992 → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.68.0}/prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/price_manager.py

@@ -2,11 +2,15 @@ from cachetools import TTLCache, cached
 from pydantic import BaseModel
 from web3 import Web3
 
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.constants import (
+    INVALID_OUTCOME_LOWERCASE_IDENTIFIER,
+)
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.gtypes import (
     ChecksumAddress,
     CollateralToken,
     HexAddress,
     OutcomeStr,
+    OutcomeToken,
     Probability,
 )
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.loggers import logger
@@ -182,3 +186,67 @@ class PriceManager:
             normalized_prices[outcome] = new_price
 
         return normalized_prices
+
+    def build_initial_probs_from_pool(
+        self, model: SeerMarket, wrapped_tokens: list[ChecksumAddress]
+    ) -> tuple[dict[OutcomeStr, Probability], dict[OutcomeStr, OutcomeToken]]:
+        """
+        Builds a map of outcome to probability and outcome token pool.
+        """
+        probability_map = {}
+        outcome_token_pool = {}
+        wrapped_tokens_with_supply = [
+            (
+                token,
+                SeerSubgraphHandler().get_pool_by_token(
+                    token, model.collateral_token_contract_address_checksummed
+                ),
+            )
+            for token in wrapped_tokens
+        ]
+        wrapped_tokens_with_supply = [
+            (token, pool)
+            for token, pool in wrapped_tokens_with_supply
+            if pool is not None
+        ]
+
+        for token, pool in wrapped_tokens_with_supply:
+            if pool is None or pool.token1.id is None or pool.token0.id is None:
+                continue
+            if HexBytes(token) == HexBytes(pool.token1.id):
+                outcome_token_pool[
+                    OutcomeStr(model.outcomes[wrapped_tokens.index(token)])
+                ] = (
+                    OutcomeToken(pool.totalValueLockedToken0)
+                    if pool.totalValueLockedToken0 is not None
+                    else OutcomeToken(0)
+                )
+                probability_map[
+                    OutcomeStr(model.outcomes[wrapped_tokens.index(token)])
+                ] = Probability(pool.token0Price.value)
+            else:
+                outcome_token_pool[
+                    OutcomeStr(model.outcomes[wrapped_tokens.index(token)])
+                ] = (
+                    OutcomeToken(pool.totalValueLockedToken1)
+                    if pool.totalValueLockedToken1 is not None
+                    else OutcomeToken(0)
+                )
+                probability_map[
+                    OutcomeStr(model.outcomes[wrapped_tokens.index(token)])
+                ] = Probability(pool.token1Price.value)
+
+        for outcome in model.outcomes:
+            if outcome not in outcome_token_pool:
+                outcome_token_pool[outcome] = OutcomeToken(0)
+                logger.warning(
+                    f"Outcome {outcome} not found in outcome_token_pool for market {self.seer_market.url}."
+                )
+            if outcome not in probability_map:
+                if INVALID_OUTCOME_LOWERCASE_IDENTIFIER not in outcome.lower():
+                    raise PriceCalculationError(
+                        f"Couldn't get probability for {outcome} for market {self.seer_market.url}."
+                    )
+                else:
+                    probability_map[outcome] = Probability(0)
+        return probability_map, outcome_token_pool

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.67.4.dev992 → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.68.0}/prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/seer.py

@@ -411,10 +411,14 @@ class SeerAgentMarket(AgentMarket):
         must_have_prices: bool,
     ) -> t.Optional["SeerAgentMarket"]:
         price_manager = PriceManager(seer_market=model, seer_subgraph=seer_subgraph)
-
-        probability_map = {}
+        wrapped_tokens = [Web3.to_checksum_address(i) for i in model.wrapped_tokens]
         try:
-            probability_map = price_manager.build_probability_map()
+            (
+                probability_map,
+                outcome_token_pool,
+            ) = price_manager.build_initial_probs_from_pool(
+                model=model, wrapped_tokens=wrapped_tokens
+            )
         except PriceCalculationError as e:
             logger.info(
                 f"Error when calculating probabilities for market {model.id.hex()} - {e}"
@@ -437,9 +441,9 @@ class SeerAgentMarket(AgentMarket):
             condition_id=model.condition_id,
             url=model.url,
             close_time=model.close_time,
-            wrapped_tokens=[Web3.to_checksum_address(i) for i in model.wrapped_tokens],
+            wrapped_tokens=wrapped_tokens,
             fees=MarketFees.get_zero_fees(),
-            outcome_token_pool=None,
+            outcome_token_pool=outcome_token_pool,
             outcomes_supply=model.outcomes_supply,
             resolution=resolution,
             volume=None,
@@ -633,9 +637,9 @@ class SeerAgentMarket(AgentMarket):
                 amount_wei=amount_wei,
                 web3=web3,
             )
-            swap_pool_tx_hash = tx_receipt["transactionHash"].hex()
+            swap_pool_tx_hash = tx_receipt["transactionHash"]
             logger.info(f"TxHash is {swap_pool_tx_hash=}.")
-            return swap_pool_tx_hash
+            return swap_pool_tx_hash.hex()
 
     def place_bet(
         self,

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.67.4.dev992 → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.68.0}/prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/seer_subgraph_handler.py

@@ -352,6 +352,8 @@ class SeerSubgraphHandler(BaseSubgraphHandler):
             pools_field.token1.id,
             pools_field.token1.name,
             pools_field.token1.symbol,
+            pools_field.totalValueLockedToken0,
+            pools_field.totalValueLockedToken1,
         ]
         return fields
 

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.67.4.dev992 → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.68.0}/prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/seer/subgraph_data_models.py

@@ -24,6 +24,8 @@ class SeerPool(BaseModel):
     token0Price: CollateralToken
     token1Price: CollateralToken
     sqrtPrice: int
+    totalValueLockedToken0: float
+    totalValueLockedToken1: float
 
 
 class NewMarketEvent(BaseModel):

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.67.4.dev992 → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.68.0}/prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/web3_utils.py

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ from eth_typing import URI
 from eth_utils.currency import MAX_WEI, MIN_WEI
 from pydantic.types import SecretStr
 from safe_eth.eth import EthereumClient
+from safe_eth.eth.ethereum_client import TxSpeed
 from safe_eth.safe.safe import SafeV141
 from web3 import Web3
 from web3.constants import HASH_ZERO
@@ -269,6 +270,7 @@ def send_function_on_contract_tx_using_safe(
     tx_hash, tx = safe_tx.execute(
         from_private_key.get_secret_value(),
         tx_nonce=eoa_nonce,
+        eip1559_speed=TxSpeed.FAST,
     )
     receipt_tx = web3.eth.wait_for_transaction_receipt(tx_hash, timeout=timeout)
     check_tx_receipt(receipt_tx)

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.67.4.dev992 → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.68.0}/pyproject.toml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 [tool.poetry]
 name = "prediction-market-agent-tooling"
-version = "0.67.4.dev992"
+version = "0.68.0"
 description = "Tools to benchmark, deploy and monitor prediction market agents."
 authors = ["Gnosis"]
 readme = "README.md"