prediction-market-agent-tooling 0.48.17__py3-none-any.whl → 0.48.18__py3-none-any.whl

prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent.py

@@ -283,7 +283,6 @@ class DeployableTraderAgent(DeployableAgent):
     min_required_balance_to_operate: xDai | None = xdai_type(1)
     min_balance_to_keep_in_native_currency: xDai | None = xdai_type(0.1)
     strategy: BettingStrategy = MaxAccuracyBettingStrategy()
-    allow_opposite_bets: bool = False
 
     def __init__(
         self,

prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/betting_strategy.py

@@ -141,6 +141,9 @@ class MaxAccuracyBettingStrategy(BettingStrategy):
     def calculate_direction(market_p_yes: float, estimate_p_yes: float) -> bool:
         return estimate_p_yes >= 0.5
 
+    def __repr__(self) -> str:
+        return f"{self.__class__.__name__}(bet_amount={self.bet_amount})"
+
 
 class MaxExpectedValueBettingStrategy(MaxAccuracyBettingStrategy):
     @staticmethod
@@ -202,3 +205,67 @@ class KellyBettingStrategy(BettingStrategy):
             existing_position, target_position, market=market
         )
         return trades
+
+    def __repr__(self) -> str:
+        return f"{self.__class__.__name__}(max_bet_amount={self.max_bet_amount})"
+
+
+class MaxAccuracyWithKellyScaledBetsStrategy(BettingStrategy):
+    def __init__(self, max_bet_amount: float = 10):
+        self.max_bet_amount = max_bet_amount
+
+    def adjust_bet_amount(
+        self, existing_position: Position | None, market: AgentMarket
+    ) -> float:
+        existing_position_total_amount = (
+            existing_position.total_amount.amount if existing_position else 0
+        )
+        return self.max_bet_amount + existing_position_total_amount
+
+    def calculate_trades(
+        self,
+        existing_position: Position | None,
+        answer: ProbabilisticAnswer,
+        market: AgentMarket,
+    ) -> list[Trade]:
+        adjusted_bet_amount = self.adjust_bet_amount(existing_position, market)
+        outcome_token_pool = check_not_none(market.outcome_token_pool)
+
+        # Fixed direction of bet, only use Kelly to adjust the bet size based on market's outcome pool size.
+        estimated_p_yes = float(answer.p_yes > 0.5)
+        confidence = 1.0
+
+        kelly_bet = (
+            get_kelly_bet_full(
+                yes_outcome_pool_size=outcome_token_pool[
+                    market.get_outcome_str_from_bool(True)
+                ],
+                no_outcome_pool_size=outcome_token_pool[
+                    market.get_outcome_str_from_bool(False)
+                ],
+                estimated_p_yes=estimated_p_yes,
+                max_bet=adjusted_bet_amount,
+                confidence=confidence,
+            )
+            if market.has_token_pool()
+            else get_kelly_bet_simplified(
+                adjusted_bet_amount,
+                market.current_p_yes,
+                estimated_p_yes,
+                confidence,
+            )
+        )
+
+        amounts = {
+            market.get_outcome_str_from_bool(kelly_bet.direction): TokenAmount(
+                amount=kelly_bet.size, currency=market.currency
+            ),
+        }
+        target_position = Position(market_id=market.id, amounts=amounts)
+        trades = self._build_rebalance_trades_from_positions(
+            existing_position, target_position, market=market
+        )
+        return trades
+
+    def __repr__(self) -> str:
+        return f"{self.__class__.__name__}(max_bet_amount={self.max_bet_amount})"

prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_resolving.py

@@ -66,7 +66,9 @@ def claim_bonds_on_realitio_question(
     realitio_contract = OmenRealitioContract()
 
     # Get all answers for the question.
-    responses = OmenSubgraphHandler().get_responses(question_id=question.questionId)
+    responses = OmenSubgraphHandler().get_responses(
+        limit=None, question_id=question.questionId
+    )
 
     # They need to be processed in order.
     responses = sorted(responses, key=lambda x: x.timestamp)

prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_subgraph_handler.py

@@ -677,6 +677,7 @@ class OmenSubgraphHandler(metaclass=SingletonMeta):
 
     def get_questions(
         self,
+        limit: int | None,
         user: HexAddress | None = None,
         claimed: bool | None = None,
         current_answer_before: datetime | None = None,
@@ -694,7 +695,12 @@ class OmenSubgraphHandler(metaclass=SingletonMeta):
             id_in=id_in,
             question_id_in=question_id_in,
         )
-        questions = self.realityeth_subgraph.Query.questions(where=where_stms)
+        questions = self.realityeth_subgraph.Query.questions(
+            first=(
+                limit if limit else sys.maxsize
+            ),  # if not limit, we fetch all possible
+            where=where_stms,
+        )
         fields = self._get_fields_for_reality_questions(questions)
         result = self.sg.query_json(fields)
         items = self._parse_items_from_json(result)
@@ -715,10 +721,14 @@ class OmenSubgraphHandler(metaclass=SingletonMeta):
 
     def get_responses(
         self,
+        limit: int | None,
         user: HexAddress | None = None,
         question_id: HexBytes | None = None,
         question_claimed: bool | None = None,
         question_finalized_before: datetime | None = None,
+        question_finalized_after: datetime | None = None,
+        question_current_answer_before: datetime | None = None,
+        question_id_in: list[HexBytes] | None = None,
     ) -> list[RealityResponse]:
         where_stms: dict[str, t.Any] = {}
 
@@ -729,9 +739,17 @@ class OmenSubgraphHandler(metaclass=SingletonMeta):
             question_id=question_id,
             claimed=question_claimed,
             finalized_before=question_finalized_before,
+            finalized_after=question_finalized_after,
+            current_answer_before=question_current_answer_before,
+            question_id_in=question_id_in,
         )
 
-        responses = self.realityeth_subgraph.Query.responses(where=where_stms)
+        responses = self.realityeth_subgraph.Query.responses(
+            first=(
+                limit if limit else sys.maxsize
+            ),  # if not limit, we fetch all possible
+            where=where_stms,
+        )
         fields = self._get_fields_for_responses(responses)
         result = self.sg.query_json(fields)
         items = self._parse_items_from_json(result)

prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/omen/reality_accuracy.py

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+from datetime import timedelta
+
+from pydantic import BaseModel
+
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.omen.omen_subgraph_handler import (
+    ChecksumAddress,
+    OmenSubgraphHandler,
+    RealityResponse,
+)
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.utils import utcnow
+
+
+class RealityAccuracyReport(BaseModel):
+    total: int
+    correct: int
+
+    @property
+    def accuracy(self) -> float:
+        return self.correct / self.total
+
+
+def reality_accuracy(user: ChecksumAddress, since: timedelta) -> RealityAccuracyReport:
+    now = utcnow()
+    start_from = now - since
+
+    # Get all question ids where we placed the higher bond.
+    user_responses = OmenSubgraphHandler().get_responses(
+        limit=None,
+        user=user,
+        question_finalized_before=now,
+        question_finalized_after=start_from,
+    )
+    unique_question_ids = set(r.question.questionId for r in user_responses)
+
+    # Get all responses for these questions (including not ours)
+    question_to_responses = {
+        question_id: OmenSubgraphHandler().get_responses(
+            limit=None, question_id=question_id
+        )
+        for question_id in unique_question_ids
+    }
+
+    total = 0
+    correct = 0
+
+    for question_id, responses in question_to_responses.items():
+        is_correct = user_was_correct(user, responses)
+        assert (
+            is_correct is not None
+        ), f"All these questions should be challenged by provided user: {responses[0].question.url}"
+
+        total += 1
+        correct += int(is_correct)
+
+    return RealityAccuracyReport(total=total, correct=correct)
+
+
+def user_was_correct(
+    user: ChecksumAddress, responses: list[RealityResponse]
+) -> bool | None:
+    sorted_responses = sorted(responses, key=lambda r: r.timestamp)
+    users_sorted_responses = [r for r in sorted_responses if r.user_checksummed == user]
+
+    if not users_sorted_responses:
+        return None
+
+    # Find the user's last response
+    users_last_response = users_sorted_responses[-1]
+
+    # Last response is the final one (if market is finalized)
+    actual_resolution = sorted_responses[-1]
+
+    # Compare the user's last answer with the actual resolution
+    return users_last_response.answer == actual_resolution.answer

prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/utils.py

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
+import json
 import os
 import subprocess
 import typing as t
@@ -6,12 +7,14 @@ from typing import Any, NoReturn, Optional, Type, TypeVar, cast
 
 import pytz
 import requests
+from google.cloud import secretmanager
 from pydantic import BaseModel, ValidationError
 from scipy.optimize import newton
 from scipy.stats import entropy
 
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.gtypes import (
     DatetimeWithTimezone,
+    PrivateKey,
     Probability,
     SecretStr,
 )
@@ -210,3 +213,18 @@ def calculate_sell_amount_in_collateral(
 
     amount_to_sell = newton(f, 0)
     return float(amount_to_sell) * 0.999999  # Avoid rounding errors
+
+
+def get_private_key_from_gcp_secret(
+    secret_id: str,
+    project_id: str = "582587111398",  # Gnosis AI default project_id
+    version_id: str = "latest",
+) -> PrivateKey:
+    client = secretmanager.SecretManagerServiceClient()
+    name = f"projects/{project_id}/secrets/{secret_id}/versions/{version_id}"
+    response = client.access_secret_version(request={"name": name})
+    secret_payload = response.payload.data.decode("UTF-8")
+    secret_json = json.loads(secret_payload)
+    if "private_key" not in secret_json:
+        raise ValueError(f"Private key not found in gcp secret {secret_id}")
+    return PrivateKey(SecretStr(secret_json["private_key"]))

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.17.dist-info → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.18.dist-info}/METADATA

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.1
 Name: prediction-market-agent-tooling
-Version: 0.48.17
+Version: 0.48.18
 Summary: Tools to benchmark, deploy and monitor prediction market agents.
 Author: Gnosis
 Requires-Python: >=3.10,<3.12

{prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.17.dist-info → prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.18.dist-info}/RECORD

@@ -15,9 +15,9 @@ prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/agents.py,sha256=BwE3U11tQq0rfOJBn-Xn5
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/benchmark.py,sha256=xiHKzZx5GHSsDerFHMZ9j_LXAXnSaITSvv67iPe3MEU,21095
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/benchmark/utils.py,sha256=D0MfUkVZllmvcU0VOurk9tcKT7JTtwwOp-63zuCBVuc,2880
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/config.py,sha256=9h68Nb9O1YZabZqtOBrH1S-4U5aIdLKfVYLSKspfUeA,6008
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent.py,sha256=xT0L1BLU89t7lfBcbbqojcH_4H7ElnXKMQB2wjFxwos,19112
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent.py,sha256=Pgl6M5d0COjKtIpKNjickAhnvRJVQo-oYIGNTT7n7DY,19074
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent_example.py,sha256=dIIdZashExWk9tOdyDjw87AuUcGyM7jYxNChYrVK2dM,1001
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/betting_strategy.py,sha256=edatJ7temvl9TBTy05JjtFCAlaoVXCfLOQlYWJ61wvw,7636
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/betting_strategy.py,sha256=SHDdgjlkjj0fAD4XUqVimOcqVHv9_JywR4BT68_srLM,10091
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/constants.py,sha256=M5ty8URipYMGe_G-RzxRydK3AFL6CyvmqCraJUrLBnE,82
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/gcp/deploy.py,sha256=CYUgnfy-9XVk04kkxA_5yp0GE9Mw5caYqlFUZQ2j3ks,3739
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/gcp/kubernetes_models.py,sha256=qYIHRxQLac3yxtZ8ChikiPG9O1aUQucHW0muTSm1nto,2627
@@ -44,8 +44,8 @@ prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/__init__.py,sha256=47DEQpj8HBSa-_TI
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/data_models.py,sha256=PQyoENpXkhu5TXZhbUdDvKLsb2sQt8rwryPTVQ9fIeM,17029
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen.py,sha256=TGXthQITMoYvx1iK388nHbv8U0DQeX_jyHb-OEinvfg,46676
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_contracts.py,sha256=MfaWfDDfEzHYVAbeT3Dgtl8KG7XsqEpdY3m3-rsOPwo,23588
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_resolving.py,sha256=Awaw1r32IBAClCktrXbYJ24RNyLDWcLb8RqAx6FGSkI,9529
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_subgraph_handler.py,sha256=W3JIq3NDGoJuHZlPtv2Gv_EmCtYVwsgZwClSY-RloZw,30219
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_resolving.py,sha256=udzte2jD33tONHPfMGhQbkAlHePRuw5iF8YXy71P8qo,9555
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen_subgraph_handler.py,sha256=2K-B5rnT05oC0K1YbrB0cKXOz3wjagoDLXQ9fxBTlBs,30902
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/polymarket/api.py,sha256=HXmA1akA0qDj0m3e-GEvWG8x75pm6BX4H7YJPQcST7I,4767
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/polymarket/data_models.py,sha256=9CJzakyEcsn6DQBK2nOXjOMzTZBLAmK_KqevXvW17DI,4292
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/polymarket/data_models_web.py,sha256=IPsFT3FX9Ge5l5zR1nBd2w-sd5ue7oR8PJSW710vFWY,12479
@@ -76,16 +76,17 @@ prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/image_gen/market_thumbnail_gen.py,sha256=8
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/is_predictable.py,sha256=QapzvJVgUZdhucgmxhzWAQ885BwSwvYUi0SG8mkLQMQ,6738
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/langfuse_.py,sha256=jI_4ROxqo41CCnWGS1vN_AeDVhRzLMaQLxH3kxDu3L8,1153
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/langfuse_client_utils.py,sha256=HZ8PN__CahMeNLaEx4v9esOqow6XEeezuYOOZD9-Ol8,4741
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/omen/reality_accuracy.py,sha256=M1SF7iSW1gVlQSTskdVFTn09uPLST23YeipVIWj54io,2236
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/parallelism.py,sha256=6Gou0hbjtMZrYvxjTDFUDZuxmE2nqZVbb6hkg1hF82A,1022
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/safe.py,sha256=h0xOO0eNtitClf0fPkn-0oTc6A_bflDTee98V_aiV-A,5195
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/singleton.py,sha256=CiIELUiI-OeS7U7eeHEt0rnVhtQGzwoUdAgn_7u_GBM,729
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/streamlit_user_login.py,sha256=NXEqfjT9Lc9QtliwSGRASIz1opjQ7Btme43H4qJbzgE,3010
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/tavily_storage/tavily_models.py,sha256=Uq2iyDygVRxp6qHAnz9t5c1uTLGV2RPQE15sVJFLds8,6341
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/tavily_storage/tavily_storage.py,sha256=xrtQH9v5pXycBRyc5j45pWqkSffkoc9efNIU1_G633Q,3706
-prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/utils.py,sha256=JE9YWtPPhnTgLiOyGAZDNG5K8nCwUY9IZEuAlm9UcxA,6611
+prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/utils.py,sha256=uItjuwR5ZB6Qy7mmc5Dzx7fa2lkLO7oHhk2nzJMrIVo,7341
 prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/web3_utils.py,sha256=IZDxHhUJH5RsaRkK9DW6z1RYdk2cz5RqLMZG3T6Gv1U,11602
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.17.dist-info/LICENSE,sha256=6or154nLLU6bELzjh0mCreFjt0m2v72zLi3yHE0QbeE,7650
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.17.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=sAyQzhlLTgPYGu4SF0z2dfSpSkZeJkZJYStbvagwh18,7848
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.17.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=sP946D7jFCHeNz5Iq4fL4Lu-PrWrFsgfLXbbkciIZwg,88
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.17.dist-info/entry_points.txt,sha256=m8PukHbeH5g0IAAmOf_1Ahm-sGAMdhSSRQmwtpmi2s8,81
-prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.17.dist-info/RECORD,,
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.18.dist-info/LICENSE,sha256=6or154nLLU6bELzjh0mCreFjt0m2v72zLi3yHE0QbeE,7650
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.18.dist-info/METADATA,sha256=-IlB5IPMIotI_oqEi8oeSMN3xSveBEbghH3S5SoAuw4,7848
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.18.dist-info/WHEEL,sha256=sP946D7jFCHeNz5Iq4fL4Lu-PrWrFsgfLXbbkciIZwg,88
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.18.dist-info/entry_points.txt,sha256=m8PukHbeH5g0IAAmOf_1Ahm-sGAMdhSSRQmwtpmi2s8,81
+prediction_market_agent_tooling-0.48.18.dist-info/RECORD,,