PyPI - prediction-market-agent-tooling - Versions diffs - 0.16.0__tar.gz → 0.17.0__tar.gz - Mend

@@ -6,6 +6,8 @@ import typing as t
 from datetime import datetime
 from loguru import logger
+from pydantic import BaseModel, BeforeValidator
+from typing_extensions import Annotated
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.config import APIKeys, PrivateCredentials
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.constants import (
@@ -21,6 +23,7 @@ from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.gcp.utils import (
     gcp_function_is_active,
     gcp_resolve_api_keys_secrets,
 )
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.gtypes import Probability
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.agent_market import (
     AgentMarket,
     FilterBy,
@@ -39,6 +42,40 @@ from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.utils import DatetimeWithTimezone, ut
 MAX_AVAILABLE_MARKETS = 20
+def to_boolean_outcome(value: str | bool) -> bool:
+    if isinstance(value, bool):
+        return value
+    elif isinstance(value, str):
+        value = value.lower().strip()
+        if value in {"true", "yes", "y", "1"}:
+            return True
+        elif value in {"false", "no", "n", "0"}:
+            return False
+        else:
+            raise ValueError(f"Expected a boolean string, but got {value}")
+    else:
+        raise ValueError(f"Expected a boolean or a string, but got {value}")
+Decision = Annotated[bool, BeforeValidator(to_boolean_outcome)]
+class Answer(BaseModel):
+    decision: Decision  # Warning: p_yes > 0.5 doesn't necessarily mean decision is True! For example, if our p_yes is 55%, but market's p_yes is 80%, then it might be profitable to bet on False.
+    p_yes: Probability
+    confidence: float
+    reasoning: str | None = None
+    @property
+    def p_no(self) -> Probability:
+        return Probability(1 - self.p_yes)
 class DeployableAgent:
     def __init__(self) -> None:
         self.load()
@@ -58,7 +95,7 @@ class DeployableAgent:
         """
         return markets[:1]
-    def answer_binary_market(self, market: AgentMarket) -> bool | None:
+    def answer_binary_market(self, market: AgentMarket) -> Answer | None:
         """
         Answer the binary market. This method must be implemented by the subclass.
         """
@@ -157,7 +194,7 @@ def {entrypoint_function_name}(request) -> str:
         if cron_schedule:
             schedule_deployed_gcp_function(fname, cron_schedule=cron_schedule)
-    def calculate_bet_amount(self, answer: bool, market: AgentMarket) -> BetAmount:
+    def calculate_bet_amount(self, answer: Answer, market: AgentMarket) -> BetAmount:
         """
         Calculate the bet amount. By default, it returns the minimum bet amount.
         """
@@ -205,7 +242,7 @@ def {entrypoint_function_name}(request) -> str:
                 )
                 market.place_bet(
                     amount=amount,
-                    outcome=result,
+                    outcome=result.decision,
                 )
     def after(self, market_type: MarketType) -> None:

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.1
 Name: prediction-market-agent-tooling
-Version: 0.16.0
+Version: 0.17.0
 Summary: Tools to benchmark, deploy and monitor prediction market agents.
 Author: Gnosis
 Requires-Python: >=3.10,<3.12

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ from prediction_market_agent_tooling.benchmark.utils import (
     OutcomePrediction,
     Prediction,
 )
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.gtypes import Probability
 class AbstractBenchmarkedAgent:
@@ -86,7 +87,8 @@ class RandomAgent(AbstractBenchmarkedAgent):
         p_yes, confidence = random.random(), random.random()
         return Prediction(
             outcome_prediction=OutcomePrediction(
-                p_yes=p_yes,
+                decision=p_yes > 0.5,
+                p_yes=Probability(p_yes),
                 confidence=confidence,
                 info_utility=None,
             ),
@@ -109,7 +111,8 @@ class FixedAgent(AbstractBenchmarkedAgent):
         p_yes, confidence = 1.0 if self.fixed_answer else 0.0, 1.0
         return Prediction(
             outcome_prediction=OutcomePrediction(
-                p_yes=p_yes,
+                decision=self.fixed_answer,
+                p_yes=Probability(p_yes),
                 confidence=confidence,
                 info_utility=None,
             ),

@@ -3,12 +3,11 @@ import typing as t
 from pydantic import BaseModel
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.agent import Answer
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.data_models import Resolution
-class OutcomePrediction(BaseModel):
-    p_yes: float
-    confidence: float
+class OutcomePrediction(Answer):
     info_utility: t.Optional[float]
     @property

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+import random
+import typing as t
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.deploy.agent import (
+    Answer,
+    DeployableAgent,
+    Probability,
+)
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.agent_market import AgentMarket
+class DeployableCoinFlipAgent(DeployableAgent):
+    def pick_markets(self, markets: t.Sequence[AgentMarket]) -> t.Sequence[AgentMarket]:
+        return random.sample(markets, 1)
+    def answer_binary_market(self, market: AgentMarket) -> Answer | None:
+        decision = random.choice([True, False])
+        return Answer(
+            decision=decision,
+            p_yes=Probability(float(decision)),
+            confidence=0.5,
+            reasoning="I flipped a coin to decide.",
+        )
+class DeployableAlwaysRaiseAgent(DeployableAgent):
+    def answer_binary_market(self, market: AgentMarket) -> Answer | None:
+        raise RuntimeError("I always raise!")

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 [tool.poetry]
 name = "prediction-market-agent-tooling"
-version = "0.16.0"
+version = "0.17.0"
 description = "Tools to benchmark, deploy and monitor prediction market agents."
 authors = ["Gnosis"]
 readme = "README.md"

prediction-market-agent-tooling 0.16.0__tar.gz → 0.17.0__tar.gz

prediction-market-agent-tooling 0.16.0tar.gz → 0.17.0tar.gz