policyengine-uk 2.41.4__tar.gz → 2.42.0__tar.gz

{policyengine_uk-2.41.4 → policyengine_uk-2.42.0}/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -5,6 +5,12 @@ All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
 The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/), 
 and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0.html).
 
+## [2.42.0] - 2025-07-25 08:57:23
+
+### Changed
+
+- Add after housing costs deflator
+
 ## [2.41.4] - 2025-07-24 14:41:02
 
 ### Fixed
@@ -2016,6 +2022,7 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 
 
 
+[2.42.0]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.41.4...2.42.0
 [2.41.4]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.41.3...2.41.4
 [2.41.3]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.41.2...2.41.3
 [2.41.2]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.41.1...2.41.2

{policyengine_uk-2.41.4 → policyengine_uk-2.42.0}/PKG-INFO

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.4
 Name: policyengine-uk
-Version: 2.41.4
+Version: 2.42.0
 Summary: PolicyEngine tax and benefit system for the UK
 Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
 Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

{policyengine_uk-2.41.4 → policyengine_uk-2.42.0}/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml

@@ -91,6 +91,30 @@ obr:
         - title: OBR EFO March 2025
           href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
 
+  consumer_price_index_ahc:
+    description: Consumer price index year-on-year growth, modified to remove housing costs.
+    values:
+      2022-01-01: 0.107
+      2023-01-01: 0.057
+      2024-01-01: 0.018
+      2025-01-01: 0.027
+      2026-01-01: 0.017
+      2027-01-01: 0.019
+      2028-01-01: 0.019
+      2029-01-01: 0.019
+    metadata:
+      unit: /1
+      label: after housing costs consumer price index growth
+      reference:
+        - title: OBR EFO March 2025
+          href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
+      reference:
+        - title: ONS CPI weights
+          href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/consumerpriceinflationupdatingweightsannexatablesw1tow3
+      reference: 
+        - title: ONS CPI series excluding housing costs
+        - href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/adhocs/2863consumerpriceindicesseriesexcludingrentsmaintenancerepairsandwaterchargesfortheperiodjanuary1996toapril2025
+
   non_labour_income:
     description: Non-labour income year-on-year growth.
     values:
@@ -516,4 +540,4 @@ finance_ni:
       label: domestic rates growth
       reference:
         - title: Finance NI (based on outturn)
-          href: https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/
+          href: https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/

policyengine_uk-2.42.0/policyengine_uk/utils/create_ahc_deflator.py

@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
+import pandas as pd
+import numpy as np
+
+from policyengine_uk.system import system
+
+# Source: ONS series ref 2863
+historical_modified_cpi = pd.DataFrame(
+    {
+        "period": ["2022-01-01", "2023-01-01", "2024-01-01"],
+        "modified_cpi_index": [126.05, 133.22, 135.68],
+        "modified_cpi_yoy": [0.107, 0.057, 0.018],
+    }
+)
+
+# Source: ONS Consumer price inflation, updating weights: Annex A, Tables W1 to W3
+initial_weights = {
+    "w_water": 9.7399 / 1000,
+    "w_rent": 81.4551 / 1000,
+    "w_repair": 2.9902 / 1000,
+}
+
+cpi = (
+    system.parameters.gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.consumer_price_index
+)
+water_index = (
+    system.parameters.gov.economic_assumptions.indices.ofwat.water_bills
+)
+rent_index = system.parameters.gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.rent
+
+
+def get_parameter_values(param, start_year, end_year):
+    values = {}
+    for year in range(start_year, end_year + 1):
+        instant = f"{year}-01-01"
+        value = param(instant)
+        if value is not None:
+            values[year] = value
+    return values
+
+
+def create_modified_cpi_forecast(
+    cpi_parameter,
+    water_index_parameter,
+    rent_index_parameter,
+    historical_modified_cpi,
+    initial_weights,
+    forecast_start_year=2025,
+    forecast_end_year=2029,
+):
+
+    cpi_values = get_parameter_values(
+        cpi_parameter, forecast_start_year, forecast_end_year
+    )
+    water_values = get_parameter_values(
+        water_index_parameter, forecast_start_year, forecast_end_year
+    )
+    rent_values = get_parameter_values(
+        rent_index_parameter, forecast_start_year, forecast_end_year
+    )
+
+    last_historical_year = forecast_start_year - 1
+    last_cpi = cpi_parameter(f"{last_historical_year}-01-01")
+    last_water = water_index_parameter(f"{last_historical_year}-01-01")
+    last_rent = rent_index_parameter(f"{last_historical_year}-01-01")
+
+    results = []
+    for _, row in historical_modified_cpi.iterrows():
+        results.append(
+            {
+                "period": row["period"],
+                "modified_cpi_index": row["modified_cpi_index"],
+                "modified_cpi_yoy": row["modified_cpi_yoy"],
+                "data_type": "historical",
+            }
+        )
+
+    last_historical = historical_modified_cpi.iloc[-1]
+    last_modified_index = last_historical["modified_cpi_index"]
+
+    current_weights = initial_weights.copy()
+    current_weights["w_other"] = 1 - (
+        current_weights["w_water"]
+        + current_weights["w_repair"]
+        + current_weights["w_rent"]
+    )
+
+    forecast_years = sorted(cpi_values.keys())
+    prev_cpi = last_cpi
+    prev_water_index = last_water
+    prev_rent_index = last_rent
+
+    for year in forecast_years:
+        current_cpi = cpi_values[year]
+        current_water_index = water_values.get(year)
+        current_rent_index = rent_values.get(year)
+
+        pi_total = (current_cpi / prev_cpi) - 1
+        pi_repair = pi_total  # Use CPI for maintenance and repair
+        pi_water = (current_water_index / prev_water_index) - 1
+        pi_rent = (current_rent_index / prev_rent_index) - 1
+
+        housing_contribution = (
+            current_weights["w_water"] * pi_water
+            + current_weights["w_repair"] * pi_repair
+            + current_weights["w_rent"] * pi_rent
+        )
+
+        pi_other = (pi_total - housing_contribution) / current_weights[
+            "w_other"
+        ]
+
+        new_modified_index = last_modified_index * (1 + pi_other)
+
+        if len(results) >= 1:
+            prev_year_value = results[-1]["modified_cpi_index"]
+            modified_cpi_yoy = (new_modified_index / prev_year_value) - 1
+        else:
+            modified_cpi_yoy = np.nan
+
+        results.append(
+            {
+                "period": f"{year}-01-01",
+                "year": int(year),
+                "modified_cpi_index": new_modified_index,
+                "modified_cpi_yoy": modified_cpi_yoy,
+                "original_cpi_yoy": pi_total,
+                "data_type": "forecast",
+                "pi_other": pi_other,
+                "pi_total": pi_total,
+                "pi_rent": pi_rent,
+                "pi_water": pi_water,
+                "pi_repair": pi_repair,
+            }
+        )
+
+        total_weighted_growth = (
+            current_weights["w_water"] * (1 + pi_water)
+            + current_weights["w_rent"] * (1 + pi_rent)
+            + current_weights["w_repair"] * (1 + pi_repair)
+            + current_weights["w_other"] * (1 + pi_other)
+        )
+
+        current_weights["w_water"] = (
+            current_weights["w_water"] * (1 + pi_water) / total_weighted_growth
+        )
+        current_weights["w_rent"] = (
+            current_weights["w_rent"] * (1 + pi_rent) / total_weighted_growth
+        )
+        current_weights["w_repair"] = (
+            current_weights["w_repair"]
+            * (1 + pi_repair)
+            / total_weighted_growth
+        )
+        current_weights["w_other"] = (
+            current_weights["w_other"] * (1 + pi_other) / total_weighted_growth
+        )
+
+        last_modified_index = new_modified_index
+        prev_cpi = current_cpi
+        prev_water_index = current_water_index
+        prev_rent_index = current_rent_index
+
+    return pd.DataFrame(results)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    modified_cpi_forecast = create_modified_cpi_forecast(
+        cpi, water_index, rent_index, historical_modified_cpi, initial_weights
+    )
+    print(modified_cpi_forecast.to_markdown(index=False))

{policyengine_uk-2.41.4 → policyengine_uk-2.42.0}/pyproject.toml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 [project] 
 name = "policyengine-uk"
-version = "2.41.4"
+version = "2.42.0"
 description = "PolicyEngine tax and benefit system for the UK"
 readme = "README.md"
 authors = [