pluvium 0.1.0__tar.gz

pluvium-0.1.0/.gitignore

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+# Initially taken from Github's Python gitignore file
+
+# Byte-compiled / optimized / DLL files
+__pycache__/
+*.py[cod]
+*$py.class
+
+# C extensions
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+lightning_logs/
+lang_code_data/
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+*.egg-info/
+.installed.cfg
+*.egg
+MANIFEST
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+# PyInstaller
+#  Usually these files are written by a python script from a template
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+/runs_old
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+# data
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+serialization_dir
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+# emacs
+*.*~
+debug.env
+
+# vim
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+#ctags
+tags
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+# pre-commit
+.pre-commit*
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+# .lock
+*.lock
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+# DS_Store (MacOS)
+.DS_Store
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+# ruff
+.ruff_cache
+
+# checkers cache
+utils/.checkers_cache.json
+utils/.checkers_requirements.json
+utils/.noisy_comments_cache.json
+mlinter-findings.json
+
+# modular conversion
+*.modular_backup
+
+# Cursor IDE files
+.cursor/
+test-results/
+
+# AI agent local setup artifacts
+/.agents/skills
+/.claude/skills

pluvium-0.1.0/LICENSE

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pluvium-0.1.0/PKG-INFO

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+Metadata-Version: 2.5
+Name: pluvium
+Version: 0.1.0
+Summary: Hour-by-hour rain forecasts for every Caribbean town: when rain starts, how long it lasts, how much falls and why, on the NatureV1 / iHELIX engine
+Project-URL: Source, https://github.com/Wisk-inc/transformers/tree/main/pluvium
+Author: Nathan
+License-Expression: Apache-2.0
+License-File: LICENSE
+Keywords: caribbean,forecasting,geometric-deep-learning,hidden-markov-model,nowcasting,orographic-precipitation,precipitation,probabilistic-forecasting,pytorch,rain,weather
+Classifier: Development Status :: 3 - Alpha
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
+Classifier: License :: OSI Approved :: Apache Software License
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
+Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Artificial Intelligence
+Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Atmospheric Science
+Requires-Python: >=3.10
+Requires-Dist: eccodes>=2.37
+Requires-Dist: h5py>=3.8
+Requires-Dist: huggingface-hub>=0.20
+Requires-Dist: ihelix>=0.6.0
+Requires-Dist: naturev1>=0.19.0
+Requires-Dist: numcodecs>=0.12
+Requires-Dist: numpy>=1.24
+Requires-Dist: scipy>=1.10
+Requires-Dist: torch>=2.5
+Requires-Dist: tzdata>=2024.1
+Provides-Extra: dev
+Requires-Dist: pytest>=7; extra == 'dev'
+Requires-Dist: ruff>=0.4; extra == 'dev'
+Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
+
+# Pluvium
+
+Hour-by-hour rain forecasts for every town and village in the Caribbean, three days ahead. For each place Pluvium
+answers the questions people actually ask:
+
+* will it rain, hour by hour, and is that drizzle, showers, steady rain, heavy rain or a thunderstorm?
+* when will it most likely start, in local time and with a window, and when will it be heaviest?
+* how long will it last, and how much will fall (median and a bad case)?
+* is lightning active nearby right now, and could it flood?
+
+Pluvium runs on the NatureV1 / iHELIX engine (geometric attention on the sphere). **Pluvium-500** is the full-size
+model: 57.9M parameters ("500" is its name, not its parameter count). It is trained on one GPU by a single resumable
+program.
+
+> Research model, not an official forecast. Follow your national meteorological service.
+
+## Install
+
+```bash
+pip install pluvium
+```
+
+## Use a trained model
+
+```bash
+pluvium forecast --country JM            # every place; tables in ./pluvium-forecast, a report on screen
+pluvium place "Port Antonio" --country JM  # hour by hour for one place
+pluvium learn                              # check past forecasts against airport reports; update the corrections
+pluvium info                               # what the published model is and how it scored
+```
+
+`pluvium forecast` writes:
+
+| File | Contents |
+|---|---|
+| `towns.csv` | One row per place: chance of rain now and in 6/12/24/48/72 h, heavy rain, thunder, main weather, likely start and window (local time), heaviest hour, 24 h totals (median, 90th percentile, chance of 10/25/50/100 mm), wettest 3 h, rain over the river catchment, flood risk and reason, lightning now, cause, and a one-sentence summary |
+| `parishes.csv` | One row per parish or province, with a headline |
+| `towns.geojson` | The same as points, for maps |
+| `hourly.npz` | Hourly chance of rain, of each intensity and of thunder, and expected rain, per place |
+| `forecast.json`, `report.txt` | Metadata and a readable digest |
+
+From Python:
+
+```python
+from pluvium.cli import fetch_model
+from pluvium.forecast import Forecaster, place_timeline
+
+fc = Forecaster(fetch_model("CorxLabs/Pluvium-500"))
+result = fc.run(out_dir="forecast")
+print(place_timeline(fc.towns, result["summary"], "Mandeville", country="JM", hours=24))
+```
+
+## Train Pluvium-500 on one GPU
+
+`notebooks/rtx6000_pluvium.py` is one copy-paste cell for an NVIDIA RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell (96 GB). Set
+`GPU_HOURS` and a Hub token and run it. The program then:
+
+1. builds the Caribbean geography and the town list;
+2. stages ERA5, CMORPH and airport reports;
+3. computes the climatology;
+4. trains stage A on reanalysis;
+5. trains stage B on real GFS runs, fetched in the background;
+6. calibrates and scores on a held-out year;
+7. publishes to the Hub;
+8. makes the live forecast.
+
+Everything expensive is mirrored to the Hub, so re-running the cell continues where the last session stopped.
+
+```bash
+GPU_HOURS=24 HF_TOKEN=... HF_REPO=you/Pluvium-500 pluvium program
+```
+
+## How it works
+
+The full explanation is in [docs/ARCHITECTURE.md](docs/ARCHITECTURE.md), every module's purpose is in
+[docs/MODULES.md](docs/MODULES.md), and what can go wrong in operation (and what Pluvium does about it) is in
+[docs/FAILURE_MODES.md](docs/FAILURE_MODES.md). In short:
+
+* **Inputs**:
+  * the global models' fields: GFS, ECMWF IFS and AIFS live, ERA5 in training;
+  * convective indices (K-index, lifted index, mid-level humidity, shear, upper divergence);
+  * rain falling now, from the satellite;
+  * the last three hours of airport reports;
+  * terrain, coasts, sun and season.
+* **Engine**: iHELIX blocks on a Caribbean mesh of 6,075 points (about 11 km over land). Each block combines
+  geodesic attention with per-head radii from 15 to 500 km, content-addressed index attention, and a recurrence
+  along the forecast's 43 frames.
+* **Physics in the loop**:
+  * mountain rain (Smith–Barstad linear theory, re-solved every hour with learned parameters);
+  * sea-breeze convergence over each island;
+  * fronts and shear lines with arrival times;
+  * the rain falling now, advected along the steering wind for the first 12 hours.
+* **Outputs**: per town and hour, an *intensity chain* (dry, light, moderate, heavy) gives every timing and amount
+  answer consistently. Heads for thunder, drizzle/rain/showers and the cause complete it.
+* **Training** scores the satellite's and the airports' reports through each instrument's learned confusion
+  matrix (a differentiable hidden Markov model), so neither instrument's errors are taught as truth.
+* **Live**: one run per driving model, mixed. Calibrated on held-out data. Corrected online from what the
+  airports report afterwards.
+* **Version 3 depth**, in its own subpackages:
+  * `atmos/`: CAPE/CIN, column humidity, Saharan air, tropical waves, cyclone rain, sea breezes, diurnal clocks,
+    terrain lift;
+  * `engine/`: terrain patches, lead modulation, temporal and neighbour attention, experts, uncertainty heads;
+  * `training/`: rare-event curriculum, averaged weights, augmentation, distillation;
+  * `prob/`: copulas, conformal intervals, extreme-value tails, scores;
+  * `guard/`: input repair, freshness, drift, output repair, fallback;
+  * `hydro/`: soil wetness, runoff, flood peak timing;
+  * `insight/`: attribution, error analysis, case replays;
+  * `render/`: maps, bulletins, CAP alerts;
+  * `ops/`: hourly service and JSON API.
+
+## Benchmarks
+
+**Against the operational systems**: see [docs/OPERATIONAL_BENCHMARK.md](docs/OPERATIONAL_BENCHMARK.md).
+`pluvium operational` scores Pluvium against ECMWF ENS, ECMWF HRES, ECMWF AIFS, NOAA GEFS, NOAA GraphCast and
+NOAA GFS. It uses real archived runs only, with no reanalysis anywhere, and calibrates every system the same causal
+way.
+
+Not golden tier yet. Results on Jamaica's 450 land cells, with Pluvium at its small size (0.9M parameters,
+about two hours of CPU training) and driven only by GFS:
+
+* **July and August 2025** (protocol frozen before the data were downloaded): Pluvium had the highest skill for rain
+  of at least 1 mm on days 1 and 2. That is +0.127 and +0.118 against +0.087 and +0.091 for the best operational
+  system. With 95% confidence it beat ECMWF ENS, ECMWF HRES, AIFS and GraphCast; against GEFS and GFS the lead is not
+  yet significant. It tied at 10 mm. Its CRPS on daily totals was 40-50% smaller than ECMWF ENS's and GEFS's.
+* **May and June 2025** (the first test): Pluvium lost after calibration. Its calibration windows held an unusually
+  wet April it had never trained on.
+* At 25 and 50 mm no system, ECMWF's included, did meaningfully better than a forecast that never says rain.
+
+**Between versions**: see [docs/BENCHMARK.md](docs/BENCHMARK.md). `pluvium bench` trains each version from
+scratch on the same data with the same time budget. Version 3 nearly doubles the skill of 24-hour totals over
+version 2 (CRPS skill +44.6% against +23.8%, with emulated forecast errors). It also has the best hourly skill and
+critical success index. Heavy-rain hours and thunder are its weak spots.
+
+## Data and attribution
+
+ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service), CMORPH CDR and ISD (NOAA NCEI), GFS and GEFS (NOAA NCEP), NOAA's
+real-time GraphCast, ECMWF open data: IFS, ENS and AIFS (CC-BY-4.0), GOES-East imagery and lightning (NOAA), METAR (NOAA Aviation Weather Center), GeoNames (CC-BY-4.0),
+geoBoundaries (CC-BY-4.0), Terrarium elevation tiles (Mapzen and its sources).
+
+Code: Apache-2.0, CorX Labs.