olmoearth-inferencex 1.1.0__tar.gz
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/LICENSE +202 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/MANIFEST.in +2 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/PKG-INFO +241 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/README.md +204 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/__init__.py +76 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/assess.py +275 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/awf.py +97 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/calibrate.py +220 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/cli.py +293 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/compare.py +295 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/data.py +86 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/demo.py +116 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/evidence.py +118 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/explain.py +185 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/figstyle.py +76 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/lcc.py +168 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/metrics.py +247 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/reliability.py +122 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/signals.py +229 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/stats.py +158 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/oe_inferencex/taskcard.py +284 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/olmoearth_inferencex.egg-info/PKG-INFO +241 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/olmoearth_inferencex.egg-info/SOURCES.txt +27 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/olmoearth_inferencex.egg-info/dependency_links.txt +1 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/olmoearth_inferencex.egg-info/entry_points.txt +2 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/olmoearth_inferencex.egg-info/requires.txt +16 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/olmoearth_inferencex.egg-info/top_level.txt +1 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/pyproject.toml +97 -0
- olmoearth_inferencex-1.1.0/setup.cfg +4 -0
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Metadata-Version: 2.4
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Name: olmoearth-inferencex
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Version: 1.1.0
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Summary: Label-free audit of Earth-observation prediction maps: which windows to review first, why, and how two inferences differ
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Author: Ziming Qi
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License-Expression: Apache-2.0
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Project-URL: Documentation, https://olmoearth-inferencex.readthedocs.io
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Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX
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Project-URL: Changelog, https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/CHANGELOG.md
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Keywords: earth-observation,remote-sensing,selective-classification,error-ranking,OlmoEarth,audit
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Classifier: Development Status :: 5 - Production/Stable
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Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
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Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
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Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.11
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Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12
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Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.13
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Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: GIS
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Classifier: Operating System :: OS Independent
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Requires-Python: <3.14,>=3.11
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Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
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License-File: LICENSE
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Requires-Dist: numpy>=1.26.4
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Requires-Dist: pyyaml>=6.0
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Requires-Dist: huggingface_hub>=0.20
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Provides-Extra: encoder
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Requires-Dist: olmoearth-pretrain<0.2,>=0.1; extra == "encoder"
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Requires-Dist: torch<2.8,>=2.7; extra == "encoder"
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Provides-Extra: geo
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Requires-Dist: rasterio>=1.4; extra == "geo"
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Requires-Dist: geopandas>=1.0; extra == "geo"
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Requires-Dist: shapely>=2.0; extra == "geo"
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Requires-Dist: pystac-client>=0.8; extra == "geo"
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Requires-Dist: planetary-computer>=1.0; extra == "geo"
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Requires-Dist: matplotlib>=3.8; extra == "geo"
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Requires-Dist: scipy>=1.11; extra == "geo"
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Dynamic: license-file
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olmoearth_inferenceX measures differences between Earth-observation inferences
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without labels, and shows on expert-labelled testbeds which of those differences
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predict error. It was built around OlmoEarth and has since been run on a served
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global product no one here had a hand in training.
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<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/main/docs/figures/pipeline.png" alt="One scene through the audit: Sentinel-2 bands, the frozen OlmoEarth encoder and the task head, the prediction, confidence and boundary layers, the review set at a 5% budget drawn on the scene, and the reasons per flagged window" width="760">
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Try it in two minutes
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---------------------
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```bash
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pip install olmoearth-inferencex
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oe-inferencex demo
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```
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No data, no labels and nothing but numpy. The command makes a small made-up water map the way a model would (sure in
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the middle of the water and the land, unsure along the shore, fooled by one cloud shadow), audits it without labels,
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and writes the picture below with the same files a real audit writes.
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<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/main/docs/figures/demo_review_set.png" alt="Left: a water map with the 5% of windows to check first outlined in orange, all of them along the shore and around a false patch. Right: the same map with the windows that are really wrong filled in red; the orange outlines sit on the edges of the red areas" width="760">
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+
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*Left: the map, with the 5% of windows to check first in orange. Right: where the map is really wrong, in red, known
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only because the scene is made up. The flagged 5% hold about a quarter of the errors, five times what a random 5%
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would, which is close to what the record measures on a real flood map. The middle of the red patch at the top right is
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an error the model is sure about, and nothing computed without labels finds those.*
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63
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+
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Then your own map, a GeoTIFF (with `pip install "olmoearth-inferencex[geo]"`) or a `.npy` array of probabilities or
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logits:
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```bash
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oe-inferencex assess your_map.tif --out audit
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```
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70
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+
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71
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+
What the project found, in six plain sentences: [Findings, in short](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/Findings.md#in-short).
|
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72
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+
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73
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The strongest evidence
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74
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+
----------------------
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75
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+
|
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76
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+
**On tasks this project did not choose, the model's own margin ranks its errors
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better than any control that sees no model — on 24 of 24.**
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78
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+
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79
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+
The tasks are the 25 of the [OlmoEarth paper embedding suite](https://huggingface.co/datasets/allenai/olmoearth-paper-embeddings)
|
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80
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+
by Ai2, with the splits fixed in the files. On all 24 that a top-1 minus top-2 margin is
|
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81
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+
defined for, and on all 14 distinct sources behind them, the margin beats the best
|
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82
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+
no-model control: 6,435,473 graded units, an accuracy range from 0.333 to 0.979,
|
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83
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+
17 of 17 classification tasks and 7 of 7 segmentation tasks, sign test p = 6e-08.
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84
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+
Six of the tasks come from GEO-Bench 1, a third-party benchmark, and the margin
|
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85
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+
wins on all six. On the same tasks it also beats the competitors the literature
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86
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+
proposes: a five-seed ensemble on 22 of 24, nearest-neighbour typicality on
|
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87
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+
24 of 24 and a Mahalanobis distance on 24 of 24
|
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88
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+
([exp73](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#the-strong-alternatives-on-the-same-suite-exp73)).
|
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89
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+
Nor is it a property of OlmoEarth: under the fifteen other encoders the suite
|
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90
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+
is published for, eight families outside OlmoEarth (AnySat, Clay,
|
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91
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+
Panopticon, Galileo, CROMA, TerraMind, Satlas, Copernicus-FM) and the OlmoEarth
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92
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+
size series, the margin beats the control on 322 of 332 scored tasks, every
|
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93
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+
encoder at 90% or better
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94
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+
([exp74](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#the-suite-under-the-other-encoders-exp74)).
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95
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+
Within the model's own confidence family the forms are close; on multi-class
|
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96
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tasks one minus the top probability is marginally better than top-1 minus top-2
|
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97
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+
([exp76](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#which-confidence-which-statistic-which-aggregator-exp76)).
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98
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+
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99
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This is the answer to the obvious objection — that a result like this rests on
|
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testbeds the author picked. It does not.
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+
[Tasks we did not choose (exp70)](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#tasks-we-did-not-choose-ai2s-whole-published-suite-exp70).
|
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+
|
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*What this is not: a leaderboard result. That suite measures accuracy, and no
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public benchmark measures label-free error ranking.*
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+
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What it does
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------------
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+
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On these testbeds the model's own logit margin is the difference that predicts
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error; disagreement across crops, backbones or encoders does not rank errors; the
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sensor difference says where shared errors come from; the frozen-versus-fine-tuned
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difference measures how much training moved the model. Given a prediction map:
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+
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1. **Which windows to review first** — review sets at a chosen budget, in
|
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confidence order or boundary first.
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2. **Why each flagged window is suspect** — label-free cues carrying measured
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+
evidence from expert-labelled testbeds.
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3. **Score any candidate audit rule** the same way, against the model's own
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confidence and a no-model control, on two references at once.
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+
4. **Audit a deployed product**, whoever trained it — including a served global
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land-cover product audited from nothing but the probabilities it publishes
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about itself.
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5. **Measure the difference between two inferences** of one scene: across crops,
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backbones, sensors, encoders, fine-tuning, and acquisition dates — how much
|
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they disagree, what the disagreeing windows share, and with labels, which side
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+
is right.
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+
6. **Fuse label-free readings with labels** where they exist, reported held-out
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+
and bound to the model family it was fitted on, because such rules do not
|
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+
transfer across families.
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+
7. **Grade against a reference that is a sample, not a map** — design-weighted
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+
estimators report the population quantity. Ignoring the design overstated one
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lead by a quarter of its size.
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+
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Both halves run from the command line without writing Python:
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`oe-inferencex assess` and `oe-inferencex compare`
|
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+
([Usage](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/Usage.md#command-line)).
|
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+
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<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/main/docs/figures/compare.png" alt="The two-period, two-sensor square on one GEOID-Flood chip: four dated inputs, four inferences on identical windows, the same-date and same-sensor differences on the scene, and the label bridge boxed apart" width="760">
|
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139
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+
|
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+
*Four dated inputs of one GEOID-Flood chip (Lake Shkodër at Gruemirë, Albania),
|
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+
each read on identical windows. Same-period pairs differ on 22 windows before the
|
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+
event and 44 after; same-sensor pairs on 97 (optical) and 67 (radar). What a
|
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143
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+
difference **is** needs labels, so that panel is boxed apart. Full numbers in
|
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+
[Comparisons](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#the-difference-atlas-every-pair-of-inferences-under-one-measurement-exp57).*
|
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145
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+
|
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+
What the evidence spans
|
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147
|
+
-----------------------
|
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148
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+
|
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149
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+
The ranking result rests on five kinds of reference whose errors fail in different
|
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+
ways, which is the part of this work hardest to argue with:
|
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+
|
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+
| The answer key came from | Testbeds |
|
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|
+
|---|---|
|
|
154
|
+
| people reading the same imagery | [Sen1Floods11 hand labels](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#dense-flood-masks-sen1floods11-exp18), [Copernicus EMS through GEOID-Flood](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#geoid-flood-the-exception-as-a-rate-over-events-exp55), [WorldFloods v2](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#the-fourth-cell-post-event-optical-from-worldfloods-completes-the-square-exp62) |
|
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|
+
| another model's output | [DFC2020](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#dfc2020-eight-class-land-cover-both-sensors-our-own-encoder-two-references-exp66), whose test labels are an iterated random forest, not hand-drawn |
|
|
156
|
+
| experts annotating a served product | [Dynamic World's 409 expert tiles](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#auditing-a-production-model-with-its-own-probabilities-dynamic-world-exp67), audited from its own published probabilities |
|
|
157
|
+
| surveyors standing in the field | [LUCAS Copernicus 2022](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#the-protocol-against-ground-observation-lucas-exp68), the only reference here that never saw a pixel |
|
|
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|
+
| farmers' own declarations | [EuroCrops](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#eurocrops-a-dense-crop-map-from-declarations-and-a-difference-labelled-on-both-sides-exp69), which also labels both sides of a two-date comparison |
|
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159
|
+
|
|
160
|
+
Two warnings for practitioners
|
|
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|
+
------------------------------
|
|
162
|
+
|
|
163
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+
**Report your readout's generalisation gap beside any ranking comparison.** A
|
|
164
|
+
small readout that has memorised its practice data reverses which confidence
|
|
165
|
+
signal ranks best. On LUCAS the margin went from last of four model signals to the
|
|
166
|
+
front, on the same data, purely from choosing the probe's regularisation on
|
|
167
|
+
held-out ground.
|
|
168
|
+
|
|
169
|
+
**A two-date difference needs the right floor.** How often the map moves where the
|
|
170
|
+
ground did not is 6% to 37% on crops — one to two orders of magnitude above the
|
|
171
|
+
rate at which merely reseeding the readout moves it. Comparing a date difference
|
|
172
|
+
against the reseed rate flatters it.
|
|
173
|
+
|
|
174
|
+
Quickstart
|
|
175
|
+
----------
|
|
176
|
+
|
|
177
|
+
1. [Findings](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/Findings.md) — what holds, the numbers, how a claim gets in,
|
|
178
|
+
and the limits.
|
|
179
|
+
2. [Usage](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/Usage.md) — assess a prediction, explain its review set, the
|
|
180
|
+
production case, how to score a new rule.
|
|
181
|
+
3. [Recipe](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/method/recipe.md) — what to do and not do when auditing a map.
|
|
182
|
+
4. [Technical report](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/report/main.pdf): the whole record in ten pages, what was done,
|
|
183
|
+
what held, and what did not.
|
|
184
|
+
|
|
185
|
+
Also: [TECHNIQUES](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/TECHNIQUES.md) (everything tried, one line each, with the
|
|
186
|
+
verdict) · [Protocol](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/method/protocol.md) (how results are scored) ·
|
|
187
|
+
[Explanation](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/explanation.md), [Signals](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/signals.md),
|
|
188
|
+
[Comparisons](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md) (per-cue, per-signal, per-experiment
|
|
189
|
+
evidence) · [Agent integration](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/method/agent_integration.md) ·
|
|
190
|
+
[Related work](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/related_work.md) (where each idea comes from) ·
|
|
191
|
+
[Roadmap](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/plan/roadmap.md).
|
|
192
|
+
|
|
193
|
+
Full documentation: **https://olmoearth-inferencex.readthedocs.io/**
|
|
194
|
+
|
|
195
|
+
Setup
|
|
196
|
+
-----
|
|
197
|
+
|
|
198
|
+
Python 3.11+ and numpy; nothing else for the package. To use it:
|
|
199
|
+
|
|
200
|
+
```bash
|
|
201
|
+
pip install olmoearth-inferencex # add [geo] to read and write GeoTIFFs
|
|
202
|
+
oe-inferencex demo # a first run on a made-up map
|
|
203
|
+
oe-inferencex assess --help
|
|
204
|
+
```
|
|
205
|
+
|
|
206
|
+
The development version installs from the repository:
|
|
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|
+
`pip install "olmoearth-inferencex @ git+https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX"`.
|
|
208
|
+
|
|
209
|
+
[examples/quickstart.py](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/examples/quickstart.py) runs the whole surface on a
|
|
210
|
+
synthetic map with no data to download; the public API is what
|
|
211
|
+
`oe_inferencex.__all__` exports, and [CHANGELOG.md](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/CHANGELOG.md) says what a
|
|
212
|
+
release contains. Rasters need the `geo` extra (`rasterio`); `.npy` input does
|
|
213
|
+
not.
|
|
214
|
+
|
|
215
|
+
To work on the repository, with the tests against the recorded numbers:
|
|
216
|
+
|
|
217
|
+
```bash
|
|
218
|
+
git clone https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX.git
|
|
219
|
+
cd olmoearth_inferenceX
|
|
220
|
+
uv sync
|
|
221
|
+
uv run pytest
|
|
222
|
+
```
|
|
223
|
+
|
|
224
|
+
For the full experiment environment:
|
|
225
|
+
|
|
226
|
+
```bash
|
|
227
|
+
uv sync --extra encoder --extra geo
|
|
228
|
+
uv run python scripts/audit_one_scene.py # one scene end to end
|
|
229
|
+
```
|
|
230
|
+
|
|
231
|
+
Licence
|
|
232
|
+
-------
|
|
233
|
+
|
|
234
|
+
Apache License 2.0; see [LICENSE](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/LICENSE). To cite the software or its
|
|
235
|
+
recorded results, see [CITATION.cff](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/CITATION.cff).
|
|
236
|
+
|
|
237
|
+
Contact
|
|
238
|
+
-------
|
|
239
|
+
|
|
240
|
+
For questions and suggestions, please
|
|
241
|
+
[open an issue on GitHub](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/issues).
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,204 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
olmoearth_inferenceX measures differences between Earth-observation inferences
|
|
2
|
+
without labels, and shows on expert-labelled testbeds which of those differences
|
|
3
|
+
predict error. It was built around OlmoEarth and has since been run on a served
|
|
4
|
+
global product no one here had a hand in training.
|
|
5
|
+
|
|
6
|
+
<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/main/docs/figures/pipeline.png" alt="One scene through the audit: Sentinel-2 bands, the frozen OlmoEarth encoder and the task head, the prediction, confidence and boundary layers, the review set at a 5% budget drawn on the scene, and the reasons per flagged window" width="760">
|
|
7
|
+
|
|
8
|
+
Try it in two minutes
|
|
9
|
+
---------------------
|
|
10
|
+
|
|
11
|
+
```bash
|
|
12
|
+
pip install olmoearth-inferencex
|
|
13
|
+
oe-inferencex demo
|
|
14
|
+
```
|
|
15
|
+
|
|
16
|
+
No data, no labels and nothing but numpy. The command makes a small made-up water map the way a model would (sure in
|
|
17
|
+
the middle of the water and the land, unsure along the shore, fooled by one cloud shadow), audits it without labels,
|
|
18
|
+
and writes the picture below with the same files a real audit writes.
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/main/docs/figures/demo_review_set.png" alt="Left: a water map with the 5% of windows to check first outlined in orange, all of them along the shore and around a false patch. Right: the same map with the windows that are really wrong filled in red; the orange outlines sit on the edges of the red areas" width="760">
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
*Left: the map, with the 5% of windows to check first in orange. Right: where the map is really wrong, in red, known
|
|
23
|
+
only because the scene is made up. The flagged 5% hold about a quarter of the errors, five times what a random 5%
|
|
24
|
+
would, which is close to what the record measures on a real flood map. The middle of the red patch at the top right is
|
|
25
|
+
an error the model is sure about, and nothing computed without labels finds those.*
|
|
26
|
+
|
|
27
|
+
Then your own map, a GeoTIFF (with `pip install "olmoearth-inferencex[geo]"`) or a `.npy` array of probabilities or
|
|
28
|
+
logits:
|
|
29
|
+
|
|
30
|
+
```bash
|
|
31
|
+
oe-inferencex assess your_map.tif --out audit
|
|
32
|
+
```
|
|
33
|
+
|
|
34
|
+
What the project found, in six plain sentences: [Findings, in short](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/Findings.md#in-short).
|
|
35
|
+
|
|
36
|
+
The strongest evidence
|
|
37
|
+
----------------------
|
|
38
|
+
|
|
39
|
+
**On tasks this project did not choose, the model's own margin ranks its errors
|
|
40
|
+
better than any control that sees no model — on 24 of 24.**
|
|
41
|
+
|
|
42
|
+
The tasks are the 25 of the [OlmoEarth paper embedding suite](https://huggingface.co/datasets/allenai/olmoearth-paper-embeddings)
|
|
43
|
+
by Ai2, with the splits fixed in the files. On all 24 that a top-1 minus top-2 margin is
|
|
44
|
+
defined for, and on all 14 distinct sources behind them, the margin beats the best
|
|
45
|
+
no-model control: 6,435,473 graded units, an accuracy range from 0.333 to 0.979,
|
|
46
|
+
17 of 17 classification tasks and 7 of 7 segmentation tasks, sign test p = 6e-08.
|
|
47
|
+
Six of the tasks come from GEO-Bench 1, a third-party benchmark, and the margin
|
|
48
|
+
wins on all six. On the same tasks it also beats the competitors the literature
|
|
49
|
+
proposes: a five-seed ensemble on 22 of 24, nearest-neighbour typicality on
|
|
50
|
+
24 of 24 and a Mahalanobis distance on 24 of 24
|
|
51
|
+
([exp73](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#the-strong-alternatives-on-the-same-suite-exp73)).
|
|
52
|
+
Nor is it a property of OlmoEarth: under the fifteen other encoders the suite
|
|
53
|
+
is published for, eight families outside OlmoEarth (AnySat, Clay,
|
|
54
|
+
Panopticon, Galileo, CROMA, TerraMind, Satlas, Copernicus-FM) and the OlmoEarth
|
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55
|
+
size series, the margin beats the control on 322 of 332 scored tasks, every
|
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56
|
+
encoder at 90% or better
|
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57
|
+
([exp74](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#the-suite-under-the-other-encoders-exp74)).
|
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58
|
+
Within the model's own confidence family the forms are close; on multi-class
|
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59
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+
tasks one minus the top probability is marginally better than top-1 minus top-2
|
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60
|
+
([exp76](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#which-confidence-which-statistic-which-aggregator-exp76)).
|
|
61
|
+
|
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62
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+
This is the answer to the obvious objection — that a result like this rests on
|
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63
|
+
testbeds the author picked. It does not.
|
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64
|
+
[Tasks we did not choose (exp70)](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#tasks-we-did-not-choose-ai2s-whole-published-suite-exp70).
|
|
65
|
+
|
|
66
|
+
*What this is not: a leaderboard result. That suite measures accuracy, and no
|
|
67
|
+
public benchmark measures label-free error ranking.*
|
|
68
|
+
|
|
69
|
+
What it does
|
|
70
|
+
------------
|
|
71
|
+
|
|
72
|
+
On these testbeds the model's own logit margin is the difference that predicts
|
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73
|
+
error; disagreement across crops, backbones or encoders does not rank errors; the
|
|
74
|
+
sensor difference says where shared errors come from; the frozen-versus-fine-tuned
|
|
75
|
+
difference measures how much training moved the model. Given a prediction map:
|
|
76
|
+
|
|
77
|
+
1. **Which windows to review first** — review sets at a chosen budget, in
|
|
78
|
+
confidence order or boundary first.
|
|
79
|
+
2. **Why each flagged window is suspect** — label-free cues carrying measured
|
|
80
|
+
evidence from expert-labelled testbeds.
|
|
81
|
+
3. **Score any candidate audit rule** the same way, against the model's own
|
|
82
|
+
confidence and a no-model control, on two references at once.
|
|
83
|
+
4. **Audit a deployed product**, whoever trained it — including a served global
|
|
84
|
+
land-cover product audited from nothing but the probabilities it publishes
|
|
85
|
+
about itself.
|
|
86
|
+
5. **Measure the difference between two inferences** of one scene: across crops,
|
|
87
|
+
backbones, sensors, encoders, fine-tuning, and acquisition dates — how much
|
|
88
|
+
they disagree, what the disagreeing windows share, and with labels, which side
|
|
89
|
+
is right.
|
|
90
|
+
6. **Fuse label-free readings with labels** where they exist, reported held-out
|
|
91
|
+
and bound to the model family it was fitted on, because such rules do not
|
|
92
|
+
transfer across families.
|
|
93
|
+
7. **Grade against a reference that is a sample, not a map** — design-weighted
|
|
94
|
+
estimators report the population quantity. Ignoring the design overstated one
|
|
95
|
+
lead by a quarter of its size.
|
|
96
|
+
|
|
97
|
+
Both halves run from the command line without writing Python:
|
|
98
|
+
`oe-inferencex assess` and `oe-inferencex compare`
|
|
99
|
+
([Usage](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/Usage.md#command-line)).
|
|
100
|
+
|
|
101
|
+
<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/main/docs/figures/compare.png" alt="The two-period, two-sensor square on one GEOID-Flood chip: four dated inputs, four inferences on identical windows, the same-date and same-sensor differences on the scene, and the label bridge boxed apart" width="760">
|
|
102
|
+
|
|
103
|
+
*Four dated inputs of one GEOID-Flood chip (Lake Shkodër at Gruemirë, Albania),
|
|
104
|
+
each read on identical windows. Same-period pairs differ on 22 windows before the
|
|
105
|
+
event and 44 after; same-sensor pairs on 97 (optical) and 67 (radar). What a
|
|
106
|
+
difference **is** needs labels, so that panel is boxed apart. Full numbers in
|
|
107
|
+
[Comparisons](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#the-difference-atlas-every-pair-of-inferences-under-one-measurement-exp57).*
|
|
108
|
+
|
|
109
|
+
What the evidence spans
|
|
110
|
+
-----------------------
|
|
111
|
+
|
|
112
|
+
The ranking result rests on five kinds of reference whose errors fail in different
|
|
113
|
+
ways, which is the part of this work hardest to argue with:
|
|
114
|
+
|
|
115
|
+
| The answer key came from | Testbeds |
|
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116
|
+
|---|---|
|
|
117
|
+
| people reading the same imagery | [Sen1Floods11 hand labels](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#dense-flood-masks-sen1floods11-exp18), [Copernicus EMS through GEOID-Flood](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#geoid-flood-the-exception-as-a-rate-over-events-exp55), [WorldFloods v2](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#the-fourth-cell-post-event-optical-from-worldfloods-completes-the-square-exp62) |
|
|
118
|
+
| another model's output | [DFC2020](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#dfc2020-eight-class-land-cover-both-sensors-our-own-encoder-two-references-exp66), whose test labels are an iterated random forest, not hand-drawn |
|
|
119
|
+
| experts annotating a served product | [Dynamic World's 409 expert tiles](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#auditing-a-production-model-with-its-own-probabilities-dynamic-world-exp67), audited from its own published probabilities |
|
|
120
|
+
| surveyors standing in the field | [LUCAS Copernicus 2022](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#the-protocol-against-ground-observation-lucas-exp68), the only reference here that never saw a pixel |
|
|
121
|
+
| farmers' own declarations | [EuroCrops](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md#eurocrops-a-dense-crop-map-from-declarations-and-a-difference-labelled-on-both-sides-exp69), which also labels both sides of a two-date comparison |
|
|
122
|
+
|
|
123
|
+
Two warnings for practitioners
|
|
124
|
+
------------------------------
|
|
125
|
+
|
|
126
|
+
**Report your readout's generalisation gap beside any ranking comparison.** A
|
|
127
|
+
small readout that has memorised its practice data reverses which confidence
|
|
128
|
+
signal ranks best. On LUCAS the margin went from last of four model signals to the
|
|
129
|
+
front, on the same data, purely from choosing the probe's regularisation on
|
|
130
|
+
held-out ground.
|
|
131
|
+
|
|
132
|
+
**A two-date difference needs the right floor.** How often the map moves where the
|
|
133
|
+
ground did not is 6% to 37% on crops — one to two orders of magnitude above the
|
|
134
|
+
rate at which merely reseeding the readout moves it. Comparing a date difference
|
|
135
|
+
against the reseed rate flatters it.
|
|
136
|
+
|
|
137
|
+
Quickstart
|
|
138
|
+
----------
|
|
139
|
+
|
|
140
|
+
1. [Findings](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/Findings.md) — what holds, the numbers, how a claim gets in,
|
|
141
|
+
and the limits.
|
|
142
|
+
2. [Usage](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/Usage.md) — assess a prediction, explain its review set, the
|
|
143
|
+
production case, how to score a new rule.
|
|
144
|
+
3. [Recipe](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/method/recipe.md) — what to do and not do when auditing a map.
|
|
145
|
+
4. [Technical report](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/report/main.pdf): the whole record in ten pages, what was done,
|
|
146
|
+
what held, and what did not.
|
|
147
|
+
|
|
148
|
+
Also: [TECHNIQUES](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/TECHNIQUES.md) (everything tried, one line each, with the
|
|
149
|
+
verdict) · [Protocol](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/method/protocol.md) (how results are scored) ·
|
|
150
|
+
[Explanation](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/explanation.md), [Signals](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/signals.md),
|
|
151
|
+
[Comparisons](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/results/comparisons.md) (per-cue, per-signal, per-experiment
|
|
152
|
+
evidence) · [Agent integration](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/method/agent_integration.md) ·
|
|
153
|
+
[Related work](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/related_work.md) (where each idea comes from) ·
|
|
154
|
+
[Roadmap](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/docs/plan/roadmap.md).
|
|
155
|
+
|
|
156
|
+
Full documentation: **https://olmoearth-inferencex.readthedocs.io/**
|
|
157
|
+
|
|
158
|
+
Setup
|
|
159
|
+
-----
|
|
160
|
+
|
|
161
|
+
Python 3.11+ and numpy; nothing else for the package. To use it:
|
|
162
|
+
|
|
163
|
+
```bash
|
|
164
|
+
pip install olmoearth-inferencex # add [geo] to read and write GeoTIFFs
|
|
165
|
+
oe-inferencex demo # a first run on a made-up map
|
|
166
|
+
oe-inferencex assess --help
|
|
167
|
+
```
|
|
168
|
+
|
|
169
|
+
The development version installs from the repository:
|
|
170
|
+
`pip install "olmoearth-inferencex @ git+https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX"`.
|
|
171
|
+
|
|
172
|
+
[examples/quickstart.py](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/examples/quickstart.py) runs the whole surface on a
|
|
173
|
+
synthetic map with no data to download; the public API is what
|
|
174
|
+
`oe_inferencex.__all__` exports, and [CHANGELOG.md](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/CHANGELOG.md) says what a
|
|
175
|
+
release contains. Rasters need the `geo` extra (`rasterio`); `.npy` input does
|
|
176
|
+
not.
|
|
177
|
+
|
|
178
|
+
To work on the repository, with the tests against the recorded numbers:
|
|
179
|
+
|
|
180
|
+
```bash
|
|
181
|
+
git clone https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX.git
|
|
182
|
+
cd olmoearth_inferenceX
|
|
183
|
+
uv sync
|
|
184
|
+
uv run pytest
|
|
185
|
+
```
|
|
186
|
+
|
|
187
|
+
For the full experiment environment:
|
|
188
|
+
|
|
189
|
+
```bash
|
|
190
|
+
uv sync --extra encoder --extra geo
|
|
191
|
+
uv run python scripts/audit_one_scene.py # one scene end to end
|
|
192
|
+
```
|
|
193
|
+
|
|
194
|
+
Licence
|
|
195
|
+
-------
|
|
196
|
+
|
|
197
|
+
Apache License 2.0; see [LICENSE](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/LICENSE). To cite the software or its
|
|
198
|
+
recorded results, see [CITATION.cff](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/blob/main/CITATION.cff).
|
|
199
|
+
|
|
200
|
+
Contact
|
|
201
|
+
-------
|
|
202
|
+
|
|
203
|
+
For questions and suggestions, please
|
|
204
|
+
[open an issue on GitHub](https://github.com/2imi9/olmoearth_inferenceX/issues).
|