nba-edge 0.1.0__tar.gz

nba_edge-0.1.0/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/bug_report.md

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+name: Bug report
+description: Create a report to help us improve.
+labels: [bug]
+body:
+  - type: markdown
+    attributes:
+      value: |
+        Thanks for taking the time to fill out this bug report!
+  - type: textarea
+    id: description
+    attributes:
+      label: Bug Description
+      description: A clear and concise description of what the bug is.
+    validations:
+      required: true
+  - type: textarea
+    id: reproduction
+    attributes:
+      label: Steps to Reproduce
+      description: Steps to reproduce the behavior.
+      placeholder: |
+        1. Go to '...'
+        2. Call function '...'
+        3. See error
+    validations:
+      required: true
+  - type: textarea
+    id: expected
+    attributes:
+      label: Expected Behavior
+      description: A clear and concise description of what you expected to happen.
+    validations:
+      required: true
+  - type: textarea
+    id: logs
+    attributes:
+      label: Relevant Log Output
+      description: Please copy and paste any relevant log output or stack traces here.
+      render: shell

nba_edge-0.1.0/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/feature_request.md

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+name: Feature request
+description: Suggest an idea for this project.
+labels: [enhancement]
+body:
+  - type: textarea
+    id: problem
+    attributes:
+      label: Is your feature request related to a problem?
+      description: A clear and concise description of what the problem is. Ex. I'm always frustrated when [...]
+    validations:
+      required: true
+  - type: textarea
+    id: solution
+    attributes:
+      label: Describe the solution you'd like
+      description: A clear and concise description of what you want to happen.
+    validations:
+      required: true
+  - type: textarea
+    id: alternatives
+    attributes:
+      label: Describe alternatives you've considered
+      description: A clear and concise description of any alternative solutions or features you've considered.
+  - type: textarea
+    id: additional
+    attributes:
+      label: Additional context
+      description: Add any other context or screenshots about the feature request here.

nba_edge-0.1.0/.github/dependabot.yml

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+version: 2
+updates:
+  - package-ecosystem: pip
+    directory: /
+    schedule:
+      interval: weekly
+  - package-ecosystem: github-actions
+    directory: /
+    schedule:
+      interval: weekly

nba_edge-0.1.0/.github/workflows/ci.yml

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+name: CI
+
+on:
+  push:
+    branches: [main]
+  pull_request:
+    branches: [main]
+
+jobs:
+  test:
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    strategy:
+      matrix:
+        python-version: ["3.10", "3.11", "3.12"]
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v6
+      - uses: actions/setup-python@v6
+        with:
+          python-version: ${{ matrix.python-version }}
+      - run: pip install -e ".[dev]"
+      - run: ruff check nba_edge tests
+      - run: pytest -q

nba_edge-0.1.0/.gitignore

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+.venv/
+__pycache__/
+.pytest_cache/
+.ruff_cache/
+dist/
+*.egg-info/
+
+# Local secrets and machine-specific config
+.env
+.env.local
+.envrc
+.env.*
+!.env.example
+!.env.local.example
+!env.example
+*.pem
+*.key

nba_edge-0.1.0/CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md

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+# Contributor Covenant Code of Conduct
+
+## Our Pledge
+
+We as members, contributors, and leaders pledge to make participation in our community a harassment-free experience for everyone, regardless of age, body size, visible or invisible disability, ethnicity, sex characteristics, gender identity and expression, level of experience, education, socio-economic status, nationality, personal appearance, race, caste, color, religion, or sexual identity and orientation.
+
+We pledge to act and interact in ways that contribute to an open, welcoming, diverse, inclusive, and healthy community.
+
+## Our Standards
+
+Examples of behavior that contributes to a positive environment for our community include:
+
+* Demonstrating empathy and kindness toward other people
+* Being respectful of differing opinions, viewpoints, and experiences
+* Giving and gracefully accepting constructive feedback
+* Accepting responsibility and apologizing to those affected by our mistakes, and learning from the experience
+* Focusing on what is best for the overall community, not just the individual
+
+Examples of unacceptable behavior include:
+
+* The use of sexualized language or imagery, and unwelcome sexual attention or advances
+* Trolling, insulting or derogatory comments, and personal or political attacks
+* Public or private harassment
+* Publishing others' private information, such as a physical or email address, without their explicit permission
+* Other conduct which could reasonably be considered inappropriate in a professional setting
+
+## Enforcement Responsibilities
+
+Community leaders are responsible for clarifying and enforcing our standards of acceptable behavior and will take appropriate and fair corrective action in response to any behavior that they deem inappropriate, threatening, offensive, or harmful.
+
+Community leaders have the right and responsibility to remove, edit, or reject comments, commits, code, wiki edits, questions, and other contributions that are not aligned to this Code of Conduct, and will communicate reasons for moderation decisions when appropriate.
+
+## Scope
+
+This Code of Conduct applies within all community spaces, and also applies when an individual is officially representing the community in public spaces. Examples of representing our community include using an official email address, posting via an official social media account, or acting as an appointed representative at an online or offline event.
+
+## Enforcement
+
+Instances of abusive, harassing, or otherwise unacceptable behavior may be reported to the community leaders at **ian@allowayllc.com**. All complaints will be reviewed and investigated promptly and fairly.
+
+All community leaders are obligated to respect the privacy and security of the reporter of any incident.

nba_edge-0.1.0/CONTRIBUTING.md

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+# Contributing to nba-ratings
+
+First off, thank you for considering contributing to `nba-ratings`!
+
+## Code of Conduct
+
+By participating in this project, you agree to abide by the [Code of Conduct](CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md).
+
+## How Can I Contribute?
+
+### Reporting Bugs
+
+If you find a bug, please create a new issue using our Bug Report template. Please include:
+* Your Python version
+* A minimal reproducible example
+* The expected vs actual behavior
+
+### Suggesting Enhancements
+
+We welcome new feature suggestions! Please open an issue using the Feature Request template to discuss the change before implementing it.
+
+### Pull Requests
+
+To submit a contribution:
+1. Fork the repository
+2. Create a feature branch (`git checkout -b feature/amazing-feature`)
+3. Install development dependencies (`pip install -e ".[dev]"`)
+4. Make your changes and ensure tests pass (`pytest`)
+5. Commit your changes with descriptive messages
+6. Push to your branch and open a Pull Request!

nba_edge-0.1.0/LICENSE

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+MIT License
+
+Copyright (c) 2026 Ian Alloway
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+SOFTWARE.

nba_edge-0.1.0/PKG-INFO

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+Metadata-Version: 2.4
+Name: nba-edge
+Version: 0.1.0
+Summary: Power ratings, win probability, and Kelly sizing primitives for NBA-style moneylines
+Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/ianalloway/nba-ratings
+Author: Ian Alloway
+License-Expression: MIT
+License-File: LICENSE
+Keywords: kelly-criterion,nba,ratings,sports-analytics
+Requires-Python: >=3.10
+Provides-Extra: dev
+Requires-Dist: pytest>=7.0; extra == 'dev'
+Requires-Dist: ruff>=0.3; extra == 'dev'
+Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
+
+# nba-edge
+
+> Repo: `nba-ratings` · Package: `nba-edge`
+
+[![CI](https://github.com/ianalloway/nba-ratings/actions/workflows/ci.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/ianalloway/nba-ratings/actions/workflows/ci.yml)
+[![License: MIT](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-blue.svg)](LICENSE)
+
+Reusable Elo, win-probability, and Kelly-sizing primitives for NBA-style models.
+
+## Why This Repo Matters
+
+This is the library layer of the sports ML stack:
+
+- reusable rating logic instead of notebook snippets
+- portable win-probability helpers for downstream services
+- Kelly and implied-probability helpers for decision support
+- small, dependency-light package design
+
+Pairs well with [`nba-clv-dashboard`](https://github.com/ianalloway/nba-clv-dashboard) for evaluation UI. Employer one-pager: [case study](https://ianalloway.xyz/papers/sports-ml-evaluation-case-study.html).
+
+## What It Includes
+
+- Elo updates, including a margin-of-victory-weighted variant
+- Logistic win probability
+- Kelly fraction sizing & multi-leg parlay sizing
+- Bidirectional odds format conversions (American, Decimal, Implied Probability)
+- Bookmaker vig-removal tools (Proportional and Equal Margin methods)
+- Model evaluation metrics (Brier Score, Log Loss)
+
+## Install
+
+```bash
+pip install -e .  # local; not yet on PyPI
+```
+
+The library has zero runtime dependencies (see `pyproject.toml`). The
+root-level `requirements.txt` is unrelated to the library — it only exists so
+Streamlit Community Cloud can find the demo app's dependencies
+(`demo/requirements.txt`, i.e. `streamlit` + `pandas`).
+
+## Example
+
+```python
+from nba_edge import (
+    logistic_win_prob,
+    update_elo,
+    kelly_fraction,
+    american_to_decimal,
+    american_to_implied_prob,
+    remove_vig,
+    parlay_odds,
+    kelly_parlay,
+    brier_score,
+    log_loss,
+)
+
+# 1. Ratings & win probability
+p = logistic_win_prob(rating_diff=120)
+new_h, new_a = update_elo(1600, 1580, 1.0)
+
+# 2. Odds conversions & Vig Removal
+dec = american_to_decimal(-110)      # Convert American to Decimal
+p_implied = american_to_implied_prob(-110)  # Convert American to Implied Probability
+p_fair_h, p_fair_a = remove_vig(-110, -110, method="proportional")  # Remove vig
+
+# 3. Bet sizing & Parlays
+stake = kelly_fraction(p, -110, fraction=0.25)
+# Compute combined parlay odds/joint probability for independent legs
+parlay = parlay_odds([-110, +130])
+# Parlay Kelly sizing (fraction = 0.25 for quarter-Kelly)
+parlay_stake = kelly_parlay([0.60, 0.55], [-110, +130], fraction=0.25)
+
+# 4. Model evaluation
+predictions = [0.75, 0.40, 0.65]
+outcomes = [1.0, 0.0, 1.0]
+bs = brier_score(predictions, outcomes)
+ll = log_loss(predictions, outcomes)
+```
+
+### Margin-of-victory Elo
+
+Plain Elo treats every win the same, but a 30-point blowout is a stronger
+signal than a 2-point nail-biter. `update_elo_with_margin` applies a
+FiveThirtyEight-style multiplier so ratings move further on lopsided games
+and less when a team that was already heavily favored piles on:
+
+```python
+from nba_edge import update_elo_with_margin
+
+new_h, new_a = update_elo_with_margin(1600, 1580, 1.0, margin=22)
+```
+
+## Publish
+
+```bash
+pip install build twine
+python -m build
+twine upload dist/*
+```
+
+## Non-goals
+
+- No bundled NBA database or scrapers
+- Not a tipster product
+- Not a full modeling workflow by itself
+
+## CI
+
+`pytest` + `ruff` on Python 3.10-3.12.
+
+## Related Repos
+
+- [`sports-betting-ml`](https://github.com/ianalloway/sports-betting-ml): applied modeling demo
+- [`nba-clv-dashboard`](https://github.com/ianalloway/nba-clv-dashboard): evaluation dashboard
+
+## License
+
+MIT

nba_edge-0.1.0/README.md

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+# nba-edge
+
+> Repo: `nba-ratings` · Package: `nba-edge`
+
+[![CI](https://github.com/ianalloway/nba-ratings/actions/workflows/ci.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/ianalloway/nba-ratings/actions/workflows/ci.yml)
+[![License: MIT](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-blue.svg)](LICENSE)
+
+Reusable Elo, win-probability, and Kelly-sizing primitives for NBA-style models.
+
+## Why This Repo Matters
+
+This is the library layer of the sports ML stack:
+
+- reusable rating logic instead of notebook snippets
+- portable win-probability helpers for downstream services
+- Kelly and implied-probability helpers for decision support
+- small, dependency-light package design
+
+Pairs well with [`nba-clv-dashboard`](https://github.com/ianalloway/nba-clv-dashboard) for evaluation UI. Employer one-pager: [case study](https://ianalloway.xyz/papers/sports-ml-evaluation-case-study.html).
+
+## What It Includes
+
+- Elo updates, including a margin-of-victory-weighted variant
+- Logistic win probability
+- Kelly fraction sizing & multi-leg parlay sizing
+- Bidirectional odds format conversions (American, Decimal, Implied Probability)
+- Bookmaker vig-removal tools (Proportional and Equal Margin methods)
+- Model evaluation metrics (Brier Score, Log Loss)
+
+## Install
+
+```bash
+pip install -e .  # local; not yet on PyPI
+```
+
+The library has zero runtime dependencies (see `pyproject.toml`). The
+root-level `requirements.txt` is unrelated to the library — it only exists so
+Streamlit Community Cloud can find the demo app's dependencies
+(`demo/requirements.txt`, i.e. `streamlit` + `pandas`).
+
+## Example
+
+```python
+from nba_edge import (
+    logistic_win_prob,
+    update_elo,
+    kelly_fraction,
+    american_to_decimal,
+    american_to_implied_prob,
+    remove_vig,
+    parlay_odds,
+    kelly_parlay,
+    brier_score,
+    log_loss,
+)
+
+# 1. Ratings & win probability
+p = logistic_win_prob(rating_diff=120)
+new_h, new_a = update_elo(1600, 1580, 1.0)
+
+# 2. Odds conversions & Vig Removal
+dec = american_to_decimal(-110)      # Convert American to Decimal
+p_implied = american_to_implied_prob(-110)  # Convert American to Implied Probability
+p_fair_h, p_fair_a = remove_vig(-110, -110, method="proportional")  # Remove vig
+
+# 3. Bet sizing & Parlays
+stake = kelly_fraction(p, -110, fraction=0.25)
+# Compute combined parlay odds/joint probability for independent legs
+parlay = parlay_odds([-110, +130])
+# Parlay Kelly sizing (fraction = 0.25 for quarter-Kelly)
+parlay_stake = kelly_parlay([0.60, 0.55], [-110, +130], fraction=0.25)
+
+# 4. Model evaluation
+predictions = [0.75, 0.40, 0.65]
+outcomes = [1.0, 0.0, 1.0]
+bs = brier_score(predictions, outcomes)
+ll = log_loss(predictions, outcomes)
+```
+
+### Margin-of-victory Elo
+
+Plain Elo treats every win the same, but a 30-point blowout is a stronger
+signal than a 2-point nail-biter. `update_elo_with_margin` applies a
+FiveThirtyEight-style multiplier so ratings move further on lopsided games
+and less when a team that was already heavily favored piles on:
+
+```python
+from nba_edge import update_elo_with_margin
+
+new_h, new_a = update_elo_with_margin(1600, 1580, 1.0, margin=22)
+```
+
+## Publish
+
+```bash
+pip install build twine
+python -m build
+twine upload dist/*
+```
+
+## Non-goals
+
+- No bundled NBA database or scrapers
+- Not a tipster product
+- Not a full modeling workflow by itself
+
+## CI
+
+`pytest` + `ruff` on Python 3.10-3.12.
+
+## Related Repos
+
+- [`sports-betting-ml`](https://github.com/ianalloway/sports-betting-ml): applied modeling demo
+- [`nba-clv-dashboard`](https://github.com/ianalloway/nba-clv-dashboard): evaluation dashboard
+
+## License
+
+MIT

nba_edge-0.1.0/SECURITY.md

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+# Security Policy
+
+## Reporting a Vulnerability
+
+Do **not** open a public issue for security vulnerabilities.
+
+Email **ian@allowayllc.com** with:
+- Description and reproduction steps
+- Impact assessment
+- Suggested fix (optional)
+
+We aim to acknowledge reports within **48 hours**.
+
+## ## Supported versions
+
+Only the default branch receives security fixes.

nba_edge-0.1.0/demo/requirements.txt

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+streamlit>=1.59.1
+pandas>=2.3.3

nba_edge-0.1.0/demo/streamlit_app.py

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+"""Interactive demo of the nba_edge package (Elo, win probability, Kelly).
+
+Run locally:  streamlit run demo/streamlit_app.py
+Deployed on Streamlit Community Cloud; imports the real package from this repo.
+"""
+
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pandas as pd
+import streamlit as st
+
+# Import the actual package from the repo root (no pip install needed).
+sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent))
+
+from nba_edge import (
+    american_to_implied_prob,
+    expected_margin,
+    kelly_fraction,
+    logistic_win_prob,
+    update_elo,
+)
+
+st.set_page_config(page_title="nba-edge demo", page_icon="📈", layout="wide")
+
+st.title("📈 nba-edge — live demo")
+st.caption(
+    "Every number on this page is computed by the real `nba_edge` package "
+    "([source](https://github.com/ianalloway/nba-ratings)) — not a re-implementation."
+)
+
+tab_prob, tab_elo, tab_kelly, tab_season = st.tabs(
+    ["Win probability", "Elo update", "Kelly sizing", "Season simulation"]
+)
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------- win prob
+with tab_prob:
+    st.subheader("Rating difference → win probability")
+    col1, col2 = st.columns([1, 2])
+    with col1:
+        diff = st.slider("Home Elo − Away Elo", -400, 400, 80, step=10)
+        scale = st.select_slider("Logistic scale", [200, 300, 400, 500], value=400)
+        p = logistic_win_prob(diff, scale=scale)
+        st.metric("P(home wins)", f"{p:.1%}")
+        st.metric("Expected margin", f"{expected_margin(diff):+.1f} pts")
+    with col2:
+        xs = list(range(-400, 401, 10))
+        curve = pd.DataFrame(
+            {"rating diff": xs, "P(home wins)": [logistic_win_prob(x, scale=scale) for x in xs]}
+        ).set_index("rating diff")
+        st.line_chart(curve, height=320)
+    st.caption("`logistic_win_prob(diff, scale)` — the classic Elo logistic curve.")
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------- elo update
+with tab_elo:
+    st.subheader("One-game Elo update")
+    c1, c2, c3 = st.columns(3)
+    ra = c1.number_input("Team A rating", 1000.0, 2000.0, 1550.0, step=10.0)
+    rb = c2.number_input("Team B rating", 1000.0, 2000.0, 1480.0, step=10.0)
+    k = c3.slider("K-factor", 5, 50, 20)
+    result = st.radio("Result", ["A wins", "Draw", "B wins"], horizontal=True)
+    score = {"A wins": 1, "Draw": 0.5, "B wins": 0}[result]
+    new_a, new_b = update_elo(ra, rb, score, k=k)
+    pre = logistic_win_prob(ra - rb)
+    c1.metric("New A rating", f"{new_a:.1f}", f"{new_a - ra:+.1f}")
+    c2.metric("New B rating", f"{new_b:.1f}", f"{new_b - rb:+.1f}")
+    c3.metric("Pre-game P(A wins)", f"{pre:.1%}")
+    st.caption(
+        "Upsets move ratings more: the update is K × (actual − expected). "
+        "`update_elo(ra, rb, score_a, k=K)`"
+    )
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------- kelly
+with tab_kelly:
+    st.subheader("Edge → stake size (fractional Kelly)")
+    c1, c2 = st.columns(2)
+    with c1:
+        win_prob = st.slider("Your model's win probability", 0.30, 0.80, 0.58, 0.01)
+        odds = st.number_input("American odds offered", -500, 500, -110, step=5)
+        frac = st.select_slider("Kelly fraction", [0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0], value=0.25)
+        bankroll = st.number_input("Bankroll ($)", 100, 100000, 1000, step=100)
+    with c2:
+        implied = american_to_implied_prob(odds)
+        stake = kelly_fraction(win_prob, odds, fraction=frac)
+        edge = win_prob - implied
+        st.metric("Market implied probability", f"{implied:.1%}")
+        st.metric("Your edge", f"{edge:+.1%}")
+        st.metric("Recommended stake", f"${bankroll * stake:,.2f} ({stake:.2%} of bankroll)")
+        if stake == 0:
+            st.info("No bet: the market price already exceeds your estimated probability.")
+        st.caption(
+            "`kelly_fraction` caps stakes at 25% of bankroll and returns 0 on negative edge — "
+            "guardrails matter more than the formula."
+        )
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------- season sim
+with tab_season:
+    st.subheader("Elo convergence over a simulated season")
+    import random
+
+    n_games = st.slider("Games per team", 20, 200, 82, step=2)
+    seed = st.number_input("Random seed", 0, 9999, 42)
+    rng = random.Random(int(seed))
+
+    true_strength = {"Sharks": 1650, "Wolves": 1550, "Comets": 1450, "Drifters": 1350}
+    ratings = {t: 1500.0 for t in true_strength}
+    history = {t: [1500.0] for t in true_strength}
+    teams = list(true_strength)
+
+    for _ in range(n_games * len(teams) // 2):
+        a, b = rng.sample(teams, 2)
+        p_true = logistic_win_prob(true_strength[a] - true_strength[b])
+        score = 1 if rng.random() < p_true else 0
+        ratings[a], ratings[b] = update_elo(ratings[a], ratings[b], score)
+        for t in teams:
+            history[t].append(ratings[t])
+
+    chart = pd.DataFrame(history)
+    chart.index.name = "game"
+    st.line_chart(chart, height=360)
+    st.caption(
+        "Four teams start at 1500; games are simulated from hidden true strengths "
+        "(1650/1550/1450/1350). Watch `update_elo` recover the truth from results alone."
+    )
+
+st.divider()
+st.markdown(
+    "Built from [`ianalloway/nba-ratings`](https://github.com/ianalloway/nba-ratings) · "
+    "part of the demo suite at [ianalloway.xyz/demos](https://ianalloway.xyz/demos)"
+)

nba_edge-0.1.0/nba_edge/__init__.py

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+"""Installable primitives for NBA-style edge models."""
+
+from nba_edge.kelly import (
+    american_to_decimal,
+    american_to_implied_prob,
+    decimal_to_american,
+    decimal_to_implied_prob,
+    implied_prob_to_american,
+    implied_prob_to_decimal,
+    kelly_fraction,
+    kelly_parlay,
+    parlay_odds,
+    remove_vig,
+)
+from nba_edge.metrics import brier_score, log_loss
+from nba_edge.ratings import (
+    expected_margin,
+    logistic_win_prob,
+    mov_multiplier,
+    update_elo,
+    update_elo_with_margin,
+)
+
+__all__ = [
+    "american_to_decimal",
+    "american_to_implied_prob",
+    "decimal_to_american",
+    "decimal_to_implied_prob",
+    "implied_prob_to_american",
+    "implied_prob_to_decimal",
+    "kelly_fraction",
+    "kelly_parlay",
+    "parlay_odds",
+    "remove_vig",
+    "brier_score",
+    "log_loss",
+    "expected_margin",
+    "logistic_win_prob",
+    "mov_multiplier",
+    "update_elo",
+    "update_elo_with_margin",
+]
+__version__ = "0.1.0"