mockcrowd 0.1.0__tar.gz
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/bug.yml +22 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/outcome.yml +36 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/.github/workflows/ci.yml +26 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/.github/workflows/release.yml +21 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/.gitignore +11 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/LICENSE +202 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/NOTICE +11 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/PKG-INFO +157 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/README.md +138 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/docs/design.md +57 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/docs/images/demo.gif +0 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/docs/images/discussion.png +0 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/docs/images/hero.svg +1 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/docs/images/how-it-works.svg +1 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/docs/images/sample-report.svg +1 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/docs/images/social-preview.png +0 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/pyproject.toml +34 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/__init__.py +3 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/brains/__init__.py +48 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/brains/base.py +76 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/brains/cli.py +103 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/brains/http.py +86 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/brains/mock.py +20 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/cli.py +194 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/data/__init__.py +1 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/data/backtest_cases.jsonl +13 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/evals/__init__.py +22 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/evals/metrics.py +145 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/evals/runner.py +118 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/personas.py +327 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/pipeline.py +128 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/report.py +227 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/sim.py +367 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/skill/SKILL.md +48 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/skill/__init__.py +1 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/sources/__init__.py +55 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/sources/appstore.py +39 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/sources/bluesky.py +23 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/sources/files.py +58 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/sources/hn.py +23 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/sources/reddit.py +88 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/store.py +66 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/src/mockcrowd/util.py +169 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/tests/conftest.py +33 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/tests/test_brains.py +88 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/tests/test_cli.py +38 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/tests/test_pipeline.py +91 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/tests/test_util.py +108 -0
- mockcrowd-0.1.0/uv.lock +188 -0
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name: Bug report
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description: Something broke or looks wrong.
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name: Share a real outcome
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- run: uv venv --python ${{ matrix.python }}
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- run: uv run --no-sync pytest -q
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run: uv run --no-sync mockcrowd -q eval --brain mock --suite backtest --agents 20 --no-record
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- run: uv build
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- uses: pypa/gh-action-pypi-publish@7245906fb61fa33a13554f9d5fb856fe61758086 # release/v1
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mockcrowd-0.1.0/LICENSE
ADDED
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Apache License
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Version 2.0, January 2004
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liable to You for damages, including any direct, indirect, special,
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work stoppage, computer failure or malfunction, or any and all
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other commercial damages or losses), even if such Contributor
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has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
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the Work or Derivative Works thereof, You may choose to offer,
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on Your own behalf and on Your sole responsibility, not on behalf
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of any other Contributor, and only if You agree to indemnify,
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defend, and hold each Contributor harmless for any liability
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APPENDIX: How to apply the Apache License to your work.
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To apply the Apache License to your work, attach the following
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boilerplate notice, with the fields enclosed by brackets "[]"
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replaced with your own identifying information. (Don't include
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the brackets!) The text should be enclosed in the appropriate
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comment syntax for the file format. We also recommend that a
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file or class name and description of purpose be included on the
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same "printed page" as the copyright notice for easier
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identification within third-party archives.
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Copyright [yyyy] [name of copyright owner]
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Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
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you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
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You may obtain a copy of the License at
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http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
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Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
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distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
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WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
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See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
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limitations under the License.
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mockcrowd-0.1.0/NOTICE
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mockcrowd
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Copyright 2026 Phani Sai Munipalli
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This product includes a reimplementation of the social simulation design of
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OASIS (Open Agent Social Interaction Simulations) by CAMEL-AI.org,
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https://github.com/camel-ai/oasis, licensed under the Apache License 2.0.
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No OASIS source code is included.
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The overall approach (seed material, generated personas, multi-agent social
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simulation, report) was inspired by MiroFish, https://github.com/666ghj/MiroFish.
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No MiroFish source code is included.
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Metadata-Version: 2.5
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Name: mockcrowd
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Version: 0.1.0
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Summary: Validate your product idea before you build: hundreds of AI personas, grounded in real posts, debate your idea.
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Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd
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Author: Phani Sai Munipalli
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License-Expression: Apache-2.0
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License-File: LICENSE
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License-File: NOTICE
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Keywords: llm,market-research,multi-agent,personas,product-validation,simulation
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Classifier: Environment :: Console
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Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
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Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Artificial Intelligence
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Requires-Python: >=3.10
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Requires-Dist: certifi>=2024.2.2
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Provides-Extra: dev
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Requires-Dist: pytest>=8; extra == 'dev'
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Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
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<p align="center"><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd/main/docs/images/hero.svg" alt="mockcrowd: validate your product idea before you build" width="100%"></p>
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[](https://github.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd/actions/workflows/ci.yml)  
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**Validate your product idea before you build.** mockcrowd builds a crowd of hundreds of AI personas from real posts on Reddit, Hacker News and Bluesky, lets them argue about your idea in a simulated Reddit thread, and tells you how many would really pay, why the rest would not, and how far to trust the answer.
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It runs on your machine, on the AI you already have: Claude Code, Codex, Code Puppy, Ollama, or any OpenAI compatible API.
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```bash
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mockcrowd validate "An app that scans your vinyl records with the phone camera to catalog your collection and track prices" --price "\$3.99/month"
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```
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Real output from a small test run (20 personas, 1 discussion round, Claude, Hacker News and Bluesky voices):
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<p align="center"><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd/main/docs/images/discussion.png" alt="mockcrowd discussion: personas debate a vinyl scanning app in a simulated r/vinyl thread; would try free falls from 60% to 35%, would pay from 5% to 0%, with the top objections" width="100%"></p>
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<p align="center"><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd/main/docs/images/demo.gif" alt="Terminal recording of a real 20 persona mockcrowd run, sped up 9x, ending in a weak demand verdict" width="100%"></p>
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Alone, 60% said they would try it free and 5% would pay. After the discussion, 35% would try it and nobody would pay. That is the kind of answer you want before you spend a month building.
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|
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## Why it is different
|
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+
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| Problem with asking an LLM "would people buy this?" | What mockcrowd does |
|
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|---|---|
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| Models are agreeable and say yes to everything | Every persona also rates a **bland control pitch** in the same blind vote. The verdict is the lift over the control, not the raw yes rate. |
|
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| Invented personas sound like marketing copy | Every persona is **built from real posts** and cites them. The stance mix of the crowd (positive, neutral, skeptical, negative) is matched to the mix measured in those posts. |
|
|
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+
| One voice, no social dynamics | A **Reddit style discussion**: threads of about 20 personas, a ranked feed, and a fixed action space (comment, reply, upvote, downvote, do nothing), following the design of [OASIS](https://github.com/camel-ai/oasis). You see the vote before and after people talk. |
|
|
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| No way to know if the tool is right | **Evals and a backtest** on products with known outcomes (crowdfunding records and well known flops), plus your own recorded outcomes. |
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## Install
|
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```bash
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uv tool install git+https://github.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd
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# or: pipx install git+https://github.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd
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mockcrowd brains # shows which AI it can use
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```
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Python 3.10 or newer. One small dependency (`certifi`).
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## Pick the brain
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mockcrowd uses the first one it finds, or the one you pass with `--brain`.
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| Brain | How it runs | Setup |
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|---|---|---|
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| `claude` | `claude -p` on your Claude Code plan | Claude Code installed |
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| `codex` | `codex exec` on your ChatGPT or API plan | Codex CLI installed |
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| `code-puppy` | `code-puppy -p` with your configured model | Code Puppy installed |
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| `ollama` | Local models, free and private, slower | `ollama serve`, then `--model <name>` |
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| `openai` | Any OpenAI compatible endpoint (OpenAI, OpenRouter, LM Studio, vLLM) | `MOCKCROWD_API_BASE`, `MOCKCROWD_API_KEY`, `--model` |
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Claude has been run live end to end. The Codex, Code Puppy, Ollama and OpenAI adapters are tested against the flags and API each tool documents, but not yet in a live run; reports are welcome. Claude and Code Puppy run with tools off. Codex runs in its read only sandbox, which blocks writes but not reads, so prefer the others if your machine holds sensitive files.
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`--model` is passed through exactly as you write it. A 500 persona run makes roughly 100 to 150 LLM calls, because one call steps a whole batch or thread of personas. A faster, cheaper model makes runs quicker. `OPENAI_API_KEY` is only used with api.openai.com; other endpoints need `MOCKCROWD_API_KEY`.
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## Real voices
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| Source | Key needed | Notes |
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|---|---|---|
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| Reddit | Yes, free | Create a "script" app at reddit.com/prefs/apps and set `REDDIT_CLIENT_ID` and `REDDIT_CLIENT_SECRET`. Reddit blocks keyless requests. Free access is for non-commercial use. |
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| Hacker News | No | Comments through the Algolia search API |
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| Bluesky | No | Public post search |
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| App Store | No | Opt in with `--source appstore`. Apple's public review feed returned no reviews when last tested. |
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| Anything else | | X, Threads, Instagram, Discord, surveys, support tickets, interview notes: put the posts in a file and pass `--voices posts.jsonl` (JSONL, CSV or text). |
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Each source that fails is listed in the report, and the confidence score drops when evidence is thin.
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## Use it from your coding agent
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```bash
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mockcrowd install-skill # Claude Code: ~/.claude/skills/mockcrowd
|
|
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mockcrowd install-skill --dir <skills dir> # any agent that reads SKILL.md files
|
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```
|
|
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|
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Then ask: *"validate my idea for a vinyl collection app at \$3.99 a month"*. The agent runs mockcrowd, and when a source is blocked it can gather posts with its own web tools and pass them in.
|
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## Commands
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```bash
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mockcrowd validate "idea" [--price P] [--audience A] [--agents 500] [--rounds 2]
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[--voices file.jsonl] [--no-live] [--source reddit|hn|bluesky|appstore]
|
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[--question "choice:first:Which feature first?:scan|alerts|wishlist"]
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[--brain auto|claude|codex|code-puppy|ollama|openai] [--model M]
|
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mockcrowd collect "idea" -o voices.jsonl # only gather real posts
|
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mockcrowd runs # list past runs
|
|
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mockcrowd report <run-id> [--json]
|
|
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mockcrowd outcome <run-id> --demand high|medium|low --note "what really happened"
|
|
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mockcrowd eval --suite quick|full|backtest [--gate]
|
|
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|
+
```
|
|
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|
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Runs are saved in `~/.mockcrowd/runs/<run-id>/` as `report.md` and `run.json` (every voice, persona, vote and comment).
|
|
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|
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## How a run works
|
|
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|
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|
|
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<p align="center"><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd/main/docs/images/how-it-works.svg" alt="Plan, collect, label, design, blind vote, discuss, report" width="100%"></p>
|
|
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|
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1. **Plan.** The brain reads your idea and lists the segments (including people who would not buy), subreddits and search queries.
|
|
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2. **Collect.** Real posts from the sources above.
|
|
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3. **Label.** Each post gets a segment, relevance, pain level and stance. Irrelevant posts are dropped.
|
|
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4. **Design.** Personas are written in batches from samples of real posts, in the segment shares and stance mix those posts show. Each persona cites its posts.
|
|
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+
5. **Blind vote.** Every persona answers alone: interest, would try free, would pay, biggest objection, plus your own typed questions. The real idea and a bland control appear side by side in random order.
|
|
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6. **Discuss.** Threads of about 20 mixed personas, one action each per round on a ranked feed.
|
|
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+
7. **Final vote and report.** Shares with 95% intervals, lift over control, shift after discussion, by segment results, objection themes and a confidence score.
|
|
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+
|
|
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## Evals and continuous improvement
|
|
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+
|
|
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`mockcrowd eval` scores the simulator itself and appends to `~/.mockcrowd/evals/history.jsonl`. With `--gate` it exits 1 when any metric falls more than 5 points below its best.
|
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+
|
|
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+
| Metric | What it checks |
|
|
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|---|---|
|
|
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|
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| grounding, citation_valid | Personas are built from real posts, and their citations exist |
|
|
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|
+
| mix_fidelity | The crowd's stance mix matches the real posts |
|
|
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|
+
| diversity | Personas are not copies of each other |
|
|
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|
+
| control_lift, agreeableness | The crowd does not reward a bland idea |
|
|
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|
+
| persuasion_drift | How much the discussion moved the vote |
|
|
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|
+
| stability | Rerunning the vote gives the same answer |
|
|
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|
+
| realism | A judge cannot tell real posts from persona comments |
|
|
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|
+
| backtest_accuracy, backtest_auc | Known hits score above known flops |
|
|
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|
+
| leakage | How many backtest products the brain recognizes from memory |
|
|
139
|
+
|
|
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|
+
The backtest ships with 13 cases: six with record crowdfunding or user growth (for example Pebble Time, Exploding Kittens, Flow Hive) and seven well known flops (for example Juicero, Quibi, Fire Phone). Each case cites its source. Pitches are anonymized, and the leakage metric reports how often the model recognizes them anyway.
|
|
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|
+
|
|
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|
+
**Your outcomes are the strongest signal.** After you test or launch, run `mockcrowd outcome <run-id> --demand ...`. The run becomes a backtest case, and future confidence scores include how well mockcrowd did on cases like yours.
|
|
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|
+
|
|
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|
+
## Honest limits
|
|
145
|
+
|
|
146
|
+
* It is a simulation. Use it to rank ideas, find objections and choose what to test for real, not to forecast revenue.
|
|
147
|
+
* Personas reflect the people who post online, who are louder and more opinionated than most buyers.
|
|
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|
+
* Backtest products are famous, so models may know how they ended. Watch the leakage metric.
|
|
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|
+
* The verdict thresholds are starting points. The backtest reports how well they separate hits from flops on your brain.
|
|
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|
+
|
|
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|
+
## Credits
|
|
152
|
+
|
|
153
|
+
Simulation design follows [OASIS](https://github.com/camel-ai/oasis) by CAMEL-AI (Apache 2.0). The idea of building a world from seed material and simulating it was inspired by [MiroFish](https://github.com/666ghj/MiroFish). No code from either project is included. See `NOTICE`.
|
|
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+
|
|
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|
+
## License
|
|
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|
+
|
|
157
|
+
Apache 2.0
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
<p align="center"><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd/main/docs/images/hero.svg" alt="mockcrowd: validate your product idea before you build" width="100%"></p>
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
[](https://github.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd/actions/workflows/ci.yml)  
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
**Validate your product idea before you build.** mockcrowd builds a crowd of hundreds of AI personas from real posts on Reddit, Hacker News and Bluesky, lets them argue about your idea in a simulated Reddit thread, and tells you how many would really pay, why the rest would not, and how far to trust the answer.
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
It runs on your machine, on the AI you already have: Claude Code, Codex, Code Puppy, Ollama, or any OpenAI compatible API.
|
|
8
|
+
|
|
9
|
+
```bash
|
|
10
|
+
mockcrowd validate "An app that scans your vinyl records with the phone camera to catalog your collection and track prices" --price "\$3.99/month"
|
|
11
|
+
```
|
|
12
|
+
|
|
13
|
+
Real output from a small test run (20 personas, 1 discussion round, Claude, Hacker News and Bluesky voices):
|
|
14
|
+
|
|
15
|
+
<p align="center"><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd/main/docs/images/discussion.png" alt="mockcrowd discussion: personas debate a vinyl scanning app in a simulated r/vinyl thread; would try free falls from 60% to 35%, would pay from 5% to 0%, with the top objections" width="100%"></p>
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
<p align="center"><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd/main/docs/images/demo.gif" alt="Terminal recording of a real 20 persona mockcrowd run, sped up 9x, ending in a weak demand verdict" width="100%"></p>
|
|
18
|
+
|
|
19
|
+
Alone, 60% said they would try it free and 5% would pay. After the discussion, 35% would try it and nobody would pay. That is the kind of answer you want before you spend a month building.
|
|
20
|
+
|
|
21
|
+
## Why it is different
|
|
22
|
+
|
|
23
|
+
| Problem with asking an LLM "would people buy this?" | What mockcrowd does |
|
|
24
|
+
|---|---|
|
|
25
|
+
| Models are agreeable and say yes to everything | Every persona also rates a **bland control pitch** in the same blind vote. The verdict is the lift over the control, not the raw yes rate. |
|
|
26
|
+
| Invented personas sound like marketing copy | Every persona is **built from real posts** and cites them. The stance mix of the crowd (positive, neutral, skeptical, negative) is matched to the mix measured in those posts. |
|
|
27
|
+
| One voice, no social dynamics | A **Reddit style discussion**: threads of about 20 personas, a ranked feed, and a fixed action space (comment, reply, upvote, downvote, do nothing), following the design of [OASIS](https://github.com/camel-ai/oasis). You see the vote before and after people talk. |
|
|
28
|
+
| No way to know if the tool is right | **Evals and a backtest** on products with known outcomes (crowdfunding records and well known flops), plus your own recorded outcomes. |
|
|
29
|
+
|
|
30
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## Install
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31
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+
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32
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```bash
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33
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uv tool install git+https://github.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd
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34
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# or: pipx install git+https://github.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd
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mockcrowd brains # shows which AI it can use
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36
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```
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37
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+
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38
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Python 3.10 or newer. One small dependency (`certifi`).
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## Pick the brain
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41
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+
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mockcrowd uses the first one it finds, or the one you pass with `--brain`.
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43
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+
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44
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| Brain | How it runs | Setup |
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45
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+
|---|---|---|
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46
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| `claude` | `claude -p` on your Claude Code plan | Claude Code installed |
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47
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+
| `codex` | `codex exec` on your ChatGPT or API plan | Codex CLI installed |
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48
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+
| `code-puppy` | `code-puppy -p` with your configured model | Code Puppy installed |
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49
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+
| `ollama` | Local models, free and private, slower | `ollama serve`, then `--model <name>` |
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50
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| `openai` | Any OpenAI compatible endpoint (OpenAI, OpenRouter, LM Studio, vLLM) | `MOCKCROWD_API_BASE`, `MOCKCROWD_API_KEY`, `--model` |
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51
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+
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Claude has been run live end to end. The Codex, Code Puppy, Ollama and OpenAI adapters are tested against the flags and API each tool documents, but not yet in a live run; reports are welcome. Claude and Code Puppy run with tools off. Codex runs in its read only sandbox, which blocks writes but not reads, so prefer the others if your machine holds sensitive files.
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53
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+
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54
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`--model` is passed through exactly as you write it. A 500 persona run makes roughly 100 to 150 LLM calls, because one call steps a whole batch or thread of personas. A faster, cheaper model makes runs quicker. `OPENAI_API_KEY` is only used with api.openai.com; other endpoints need `MOCKCROWD_API_KEY`.
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55
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+
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56
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## Real voices
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57
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| Source | Key needed | Notes |
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59
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|---|---|---|
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| Reddit | Yes, free | Create a "script" app at reddit.com/prefs/apps and set `REDDIT_CLIENT_ID` and `REDDIT_CLIENT_SECRET`. Reddit blocks keyless requests. Free access is for non-commercial use. |
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61
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| Hacker News | No | Comments through the Algolia search API |
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62
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| Bluesky | No | Public post search |
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63
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| App Store | No | Opt in with `--source appstore`. Apple's public review feed returned no reviews when last tested. |
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| Anything else | | X, Threads, Instagram, Discord, surveys, support tickets, interview notes: put the posts in a file and pass `--voices posts.jsonl` (JSONL, CSV or text). |
|
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65
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+
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66
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+
Each source that fails is listed in the report, and the confidence score drops when evidence is thin.
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67
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+
|
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68
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## Use it from your coding agent
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69
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+
|
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70
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+
```bash
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71
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+
mockcrowd install-skill # Claude Code: ~/.claude/skills/mockcrowd
|
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72
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mockcrowd install-skill --dir <skills dir> # any agent that reads SKILL.md files
|
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73
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+
```
|
|
74
|
+
|
|
75
|
+
Then ask: *"validate my idea for a vinyl collection app at \$3.99 a month"*. The agent runs mockcrowd, and when a source is blocked it can gather posts with its own web tools and pass them in.
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76
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+
|
|
77
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+
## Commands
|
|
78
|
+
|
|
79
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+
```bash
|
|
80
|
+
mockcrowd validate "idea" [--price P] [--audience A] [--agents 500] [--rounds 2]
|
|
81
|
+
[--voices file.jsonl] [--no-live] [--source reddit|hn|bluesky|appstore]
|
|
82
|
+
[--question "choice:first:Which feature first?:scan|alerts|wishlist"]
|
|
83
|
+
[--brain auto|claude|codex|code-puppy|ollama|openai] [--model M]
|
|
84
|
+
mockcrowd collect "idea" -o voices.jsonl # only gather real posts
|
|
85
|
+
mockcrowd runs # list past runs
|
|
86
|
+
mockcrowd report <run-id> [--json]
|
|
87
|
+
mockcrowd outcome <run-id> --demand high|medium|low --note "what really happened"
|
|
88
|
+
mockcrowd eval --suite quick|full|backtest [--gate]
|
|
89
|
+
```
|
|
90
|
+
|
|
91
|
+
Runs are saved in `~/.mockcrowd/runs/<run-id>/` as `report.md` and `run.json` (every voice, persona, vote and comment).
|
|
92
|
+
|
|
93
|
+
## How a run works
|
|
94
|
+
|
|
95
|
+
<p align="center"><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/phanisaimunipalli/mockcrowd/main/docs/images/how-it-works.svg" alt="Plan, collect, label, design, blind vote, discuss, report" width="100%"></p>
|
|
96
|
+
|
|
97
|
+
1. **Plan.** The brain reads your idea and lists the segments (including people who would not buy), subreddits and search queries.
|
|
98
|
+
2. **Collect.** Real posts from the sources above.
|
|
99
|
+
3. **Label.** Each post gets a segment, relevance, pain level and stance. Irrelevant posts are dropped.
|
|
100
|
+
4. **Design.** Personas are written in batches from samples of real posts, in the segment shares and stance mix those posts show. Each persona cites its posts.
|
|
101
|
+
5. **Blind vote.** Every persona answers alone: interest, would try free, would pay, biggest objection, plus your own typed questions. The real idea and a bland control appear side by side in random order.
|
|
102
|
+
6. **Discuss.** Threads of about 20 mixed personas, one action each per round on a ranked feed.
|
|
103
|
+
7. **Final vote and report.** Shares with 95% intervals, lift over control, shift after discussion, by segment results, objection themes and a confidence score.
|
|
104
|
+
|
|
105
|
+
## Evals and continuous improvement
|
|
106
|
+
|
|
107
|
+
`mockcrowd eval` scores the simulator itself and appends to `~/.mockcrowd/evals/history.jsonl`. With `--gate` it exits 1 when any metric falls more than 5 points below its best.
|
|
108
|
+
|
|
109
|
+
| Metric | What it checks |
|
|
110
|
+
|---|---|
|
|
111
|
+
| grounding, citation_valid | Personas are built from real posts, and their citations exist |
|
|
112
|
+
| mix_fidelity | The crowd's stance mix matches the real posts |
|
|
113
|
+
| diversity | Personas are not copies of each other |
|
|
114
|
+
| control_lift, agreeableness | The crowd does not reward a bland idea |
|
|
115
|
+
| persuasion_drift | How much the discussion moved the vote |
|
|
116
|
+
| stability | Rerunning the vote gives the same answer |
|
|
117
|
+
| realism | A judge cannot tell real posts from persona comments |
|
|
118
|
+
| backtest_accuracy, backtest_auc | Known hits score above known flops |
|
|
119
|
+
| leakage | How many backtest products the brain recognizes from memory |
|
|
120
|
+
|
|
121
|
+
The backtest ships with 13 cases: six with record crowdfunding or user growth (for example Pebble Time, Exploding Kittens, Flow Hive) and seven well known flops (for example Juicero, Quibi, Fire Phone). Each case cites its source. Pitches are anonymized, and the leakage metric reports how often the model recognizes them anyway.
|
|
122
|
+
|
|
123
|
+
**Your outcomes are the strongest signal.** After you test or launch, run `mockcrowd outcome <run-id> --demand ...`. The run becomes a backtest case, and future confidence scores include how well mockcrowd did on cases like yours.
|
|
124
|
+
|
|
125
|
+
## Honest limits
|
|
126
|
+
|
|
127
|
+
* It is a simulation. Use it to rank ideas, find objections and choose what to test for real, not to forecast revenue.
|
|
128
|
+
* Personas reflect the people who post online, who are louder and more opinionated than most buyers.
|
|
129
|
+
* Backtest products are famous, so models may know how they ended. Watch the leakage metric.
|
|
130
|
+
* The verdict thresholds are starting points. The backtest reports how well they separate hits from flops on your brain.
|
|
131
|
+
|
|
132
|
+
## Credits
|
|
133
|
+
|
|
134
|
+
Simulation design follows [OASIS](https://github.com/camel-ai/oasis) by CAMEL-AI (Apache 2.0). The idea of building a world from seed material and simulating it was inspired by [MiroFish](https://github.com/666ghj/MiroFish). No code from either project is included. See `NOTICE`.
|
|
135
|
+
|
|
136
|
+
## License
|
|
137
|
+
|
|
138
|
+
Apache 2.0
|