ml4t-models 0.1.0a0__tar.gz
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/.gitignore +21 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/CHANGELOG.md +17 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/LICENSE +21 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/PKG-INFO +265 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/README.md +206 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/pyproject.toml +165 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/__init__.py +198 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/_internal/cae_nn.py +75 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/_internal/latent_factor_utils.py +197 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/_internal/sae_nn.py +122 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/_internal/stochastic_discount_factor_nn.py +272 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/_internal/torch_runtime.py +27 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/api.py +120 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/asset_prediction/__init__.py +9 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/asset_prediction/base.py +45 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/asset_prediction/sae.py +325 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/configs/__init__.py +45 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/configs/asset_prediction.py +35 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/configs/base.py +14 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/configs/forecast.py +29 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/configs/latent_factor.py +94 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/configs/pipeline.py +21 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/configs/portfolio.py +81 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/forecasters/__init__.py +13 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/forecasters/ar.py +83 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/forecasters/base.py +31 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/forecasters/ewma.py +52 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/forecasters/mean.py +46 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/integration/__init__.py +57 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/integration/backtest.py +544 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/integration/data.py +328 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/integration/surfaces.py +407 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/latent_factors/__init__.py +15 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/latent_factors/base.py +41 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/latent_factors/cae.py +361 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/latent_factors/ipca.py +315 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/latent_factors/pca.py +93 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/latent_factors/rp_pca.py +224 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/mappers/__init__.py +9 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/mappers/base.py +23 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/mappers/beta_lambda.py +35 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/pipelines.py +110 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/portfolio/__init__.py +41 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/portfolio/base.py +45 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/portfolio/components.py +254 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/portfolio/deep_portfolio.py +285 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/portfolio/linear.py +128 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/portfolio/losses.py +130 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/portfolio/lstm.py +241 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/portfolio/postprocessors.py +123 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/portfolio/runtime.py +266 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/stochastic_discount_factor/__init__.py +15 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/stochastic_discount_factor/base.py +40 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/stochastic_discount_factor/mapper.py +361 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/stochastic_discount_factor/model.py +365 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/src/ml4t/models/types.py +422 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_cae.py +66 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_forecasters.py +55 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_integration_backtest.py +204 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_integration_data.py +82 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_integration_surfaces.py +173 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_ipca.py +81 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_pca_pipeline.py +66 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_portfolio.py +234 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_rp_pca.py +63 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_sae.py +94 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_stochastic_discount_factor.py +143 -0
- ml4t_models-0.1.0a0/tests/test_types.py +50 -0
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CLAUDE.md
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.claude/
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# Changelog
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All notable changes to `ml4t-models` will be documented in this file.
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## 0.1.0a0
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- Added finance-native data contracts for persistent panels, ragged cross-sections, and
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portfolio sequences.
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- Added latent-factor model families: `PCA`, `RP-PCA`, `IPCA`, and `CAE`.
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- Added direct asset prediction with `SAEModel`.
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- Added weight-native stochastic discount factor modeling with
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`StochasticDiscountFactorModel`.
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- Added portfolio learning baselines and deep models.
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- Added factor forecasters, asset mappers, and composable modeling pipelines.
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- Added integration adapters for ML4T data schemas, backtest handoff, and prediction or weight
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surfaces.
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- Added user guide, architecture documentation, and API reference with MkDocs.
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MIT License
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Copyright (c) 2026 Stefan Jansen
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Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
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of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
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in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
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to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
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copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
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furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
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The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
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copies or substantial portions of the Software.
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THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
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IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
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FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
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AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
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LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
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OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
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SOFTWARE.
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Metadata-Version: 2.4
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Name: ml4t-models
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Version: 0.1.0a0
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Summary: Finance-specific latent-factor and portfolio-learning models for ML4T
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Project-URL: Homepage, https://ml4trading.io/docs/models/
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Project-URL: Documentation, https://ml4trading.io/docs/models/
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Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/ml4t/models
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Project-URL: Issues, https://github.com/ml4t/models/issues
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Project-URL: Changelog, https://github.com/ml4t/models/blob/main/CHANGELOG.md
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Author-email: Stefan Jansen <stefan@ml4trading.io>
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Maintainer-email: Stefan Jansen <stefan@ml4trading.io>
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License: MIT
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License-File: LICENSE
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Keywords: algorithmic-trading,deep-learning,finance,latent-factors,machine-learning,portfolio-learning,quantitative-finance
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Classifier: Development Status :: 3 - Alpha
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Classifier: Intended Audience :: Developers
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Classifier: Intended Audience :: Financial and Insurance Industry
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Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
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Classifier: License :: OSI Approved :: MIT License
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Classifier: Operating System :: OS Independent
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Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
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Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12
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Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.13
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Classifier: Topic :: Office/Business :: Financial :: Investment
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Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Artificial Intelligence
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Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Information Analysis
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Classifier: Typing :: Typed
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Requires-Python: <3.14,>=3.12
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Requires-Dist: numpy<2.3,>=1.26
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Requires-Dist: mkdocstrings[python]>=0.24.0; extra == 'all'
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Requires-Dist: ml4t-specs>=0.1.0b0; extra == 'all'
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Requires-Dist: polars>=1.0.0; extra == 'all'
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Provides-Extra: integration
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Requires-Dist: ml4t-specs>=0.1.0b0; extra == 'integration'
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Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
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# ml4t-models
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[](https://www.python.org/downloads/)
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[](https://pypi.org/project/ml4t-models/)
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[](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT)
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Finance-native model implementations for latent-factor estimation, stochastic discount factor learning, direct asset prediction, and end-to-end portfolio learning.
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Documentation: https://ml4trading.io/docs/models/
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## Part of the ML4T Library Ecosystem
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This library is one of six interconnected ML4T libraries supporting the research and production workflow described in [Machine Learning for Trading](https://ml4trading.io).
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## What This Library Does
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`ml4t-models` packages paper-faithful model families that are common in modern empirical asset pricing and portfolio learning:
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- Latent-factor estimators with explicit structural outputs:
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- `PCAModel`
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- `RPPCAModel`
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- `IPCAModel`
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- `CAEModel`
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- Weight-native stochastic discount factor modeling:
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- `StochasticDiscountFactorModel`
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- Direct asset prediction:
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- `SAEModel` (`SAE` = supervised autoencoder)
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- End-to-end portfolio learning:
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- `LinearFeaturePortfolioModel`
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- `LSTMPortfolioModel`
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- `DeepPortfolioModel`
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The library is built around finance-native contracts rather than generic tensor trainers:
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- `PersistentPanelBatch` for stable-ID panels
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- `CrossSectionBatch` for ragged dated cross-sections
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- `PortfolioSequenceBatch` for sequence-to-allocation models
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It also keeps the predictive steps explicit:
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- structural extraction
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- factor-premium forecasting
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- asset mapping
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- downstream prediction and weight frames for `ml4t-backtest` and `ml4t-diagnostic`
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## Installation
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```bash
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pip install ml4t-models
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```
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Optional extras:
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```bash
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pip install ml4t-models[deep] # torch-backed neural models
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pip install ml4t-models[integration] # polars + ml4t-specs bridges
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pip install ml4t-models[docs] # mkdocs site build
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pip install ml4t-models[all]
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```
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## Quick Start
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### 1. Latent-Factor Forecast Pipeline
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```python
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import numpy as np
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from ml4t.models import (
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BetaLambdaMapper,
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CrossSectionBatch,
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ExpandingMeanFactorForecaster,
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IPCAConfig,
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IPCAModel,
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LatentFactorForecastPipeline,
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)
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batch = CrossSectionBatch(
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characteristics=np.random.randn(24, 200, 12),
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returns=np.random.randn(24, 200),
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timestamps=tuple(range(24)),
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)
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pipeline = LatentFactorForecastPipeline(
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model=IPCAModel(IPCAConfig(n_factors=3)),
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forecaster=ExpandingMeanFactorForecaster(),
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mapper=BetaLambdaMapper(),
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)
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pipeline.fit(batch)
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prediction = pipeline.predict(batch)
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print(prediction.asset_forecast.expected_returns.shape)
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# (24, 200)
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```
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### 2. Weight-Native Stochastic Discount Factor
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```python
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import numpy as np
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from ml4t.models import CrossSectionBatch, StochasticDiscountFactorConfig, StochasticDiscountFactorModel
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batch = CrossSectionBatch(
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characteristics=np.random.randn(36, 300, 16),
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returns=np.random.randn(36, 300),
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context_features=np.random.randn(36, 8),
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timestamps=tuple(range(36)),
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)
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model = StochasticDiscountFactorModel(
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StochasticDiscountFactorConfig(checkpoint_epochs=(256, 512, 768, 1024, 1280))
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)
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model.fit(batch)
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state = model.extract(batch, checkpoint=1280)
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print(state.asset_weights.shape)
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# (36, 300)
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```
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### 3. End-to-End Portfolio Learning
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```python
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import numpy as np
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from ml4t.models import LSTMPortfolioConfig, LSTMPortfolioModel, PortfolioSequenceBatch
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batch = PortfolioSequenceBatch(
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features=np.random.randn(8, 63, 20, 10),
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returns=np.random.randn(8, 63, 20),
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timestamps=tuple(range(63)),
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asset_ids=tuple(f"asset_{i}" for i in range(20)),
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)
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model = LSTMPortfolioModel(LSTMPortfolioConfig(max_iters=20, checkpoint_every=5))
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model.fit(batch)
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weights = model.predict(batch, checkpoint=20)
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print(weights.weights.shape)
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# (8, 63, 20)
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```
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### 4. Hand Off Predictions To The Rest Of ML4T
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```python
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from ml4t.models import predictions_frame_from_asset_forecast, write_backtest_frames
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frame = predictions_frame_from_asset_forecast(prediction.asset_forecast)
|
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write_backtest_frames("artifacts/run_001", predictions=frame)
|
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```
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## Model Families
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### Latent Factors
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These models estimate a structural representation first, then let a separate forecaster produce ex ante factor premia.
|
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+
| Model | Contract | Native output | Predictive step |
|
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|---|---|---|---|
|
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| `PCAModel` | `PersistentPanelBatch` | static loadings, factor returns | factor-premium forecaster + mapper |
|
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|
+
| `RPPCAModel` | `PersistentPanelBatch` | risk-premium-aware latent factors | factor-premium forecaster + mapper |
|
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|
+
| `IPCAModel` | `CrossSectionBatch` | characteristic-implied betas, factor history | factor-premium forecaster + mapper |
|
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| `CAEModel` | `CrossSectionBatch` | nonlinear characteristic betas, factor history | factor-premium forecaster + mapper |
|
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### Stochastic Discount Factor
|
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`StochasticDiscountFactorModel` is not a `beta × lambda` latent-factor model. It learns a weight-native no-arbitrage object and exposes:
|
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- asset weights
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- SDF series
|
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- checkpointed phase-aware training state
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+
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+
Optional return projections are handled by separate mappers.
|
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|
+
|
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|
+
### Direct Asset Prediction
|
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|
+
|
|
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|
+
`SAEModel` is a supervised autoencoder signal model. In this library it is treated as a direct predictor, not a latent-factor model.
|
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|
+
|
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+
### Portfolio Learning
|
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+
|
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|
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Portfolio models learn allocations directly:
|
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243
|
+
|
|
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- `LinearFeaturePortfolioModel` as a deterministic baseline
|
|
245
|
+
- `LSTMPortfolioModel` as a sequence baseline
|
|
246
|
+
- `DeepPortfolioModel` as a structured DeePM-style allocator
|
|
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|
+
|
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|
+
## Design Principles
|
|
249
|
+
|
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|
+
- Finance-native data contracts rather than generic dataloaders
|
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|
+
- Explicit structural and predictive stages
|
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|
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- Checkpoint-aware neural training
|
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|
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- Clear separation between:
|
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- model estimation
|
|
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|
+
- forecasting
|
|
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+
- backtest and diagnostic integration
|
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- Integration boundaries with sibling libraries instead of duplicated evaluation logic
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## Documentation
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- [Getting Started](docs/getting-started/quickstart.md)
|
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- [User Guide](docs/user-guide/index.md)
|
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|
+
- [Architecture](docs/reference/architecture.md)
|
|
264
|
+
- [API Reference](docs/api/index.md)
|
|
265
|
+
- [Book Guide](docs/book-guide/index.md)
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,206 @@
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# ml4t-models
|
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+
|
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+
[](https://www.python.org/downloads/)
|
|
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|
+
[](https://pypi.org/project/ml4t-models/)
|
|
5
|
+
[](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT)
|
|
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+
|
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Finance-native model implementations for latent-factor estimation, stochastic discount factor learning, direct asset prediction, and end-to-end portfolio learning.
|
|
8
|
+
|
|
9
|
+
Documentation: https://ml4trading.io/docs/models/
|
|
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|
+
|
|
11
|
+
## Part of the ML4T Library Ecosystem
|
|
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|
+
|
|
13
|
+
This library is one of six interconnected ML4T libraries supporting the research and production workflow described in [Machine Learning for Trading](https://ml4trading.io).
|
|
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|
+
|
|
15
|
+

|
|
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|
+
|
|
17
|
+
## What This Library Does
|
|
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|
+
|
|
19
|
+
`ml4t-models` packages paper-faithful model families that are common in modern empirical asset pricing and portfolio learning:
|
|
20
|
+
|
|
21
|
+
- Latent-factor estimators with explicit structural outputs:
|
|
22
|
+
- `PCAModel`
|
|
23
|
+
- `RPPCAModel`
|
|
24
|
+
- `IPCAModel`
|
|
25
|
+
- `CAEModel`
|
|
26
|
+
- Weight-native stochastic discount factor modeling:
|
|
27
|
+
- `StochasticDiscountFactorModel`
|
|
28
|
+
- Direct asset prediction:
|
|
29
|
+
- `SAEModel` (`SAE` = supervised autoencoder)
|
|
30
|
+
- End-to-end portfolio learning:
|
|
31
|
+
- `LinearFeaturePortfolioModel`
|
|
32
|
+
- `LSTMPortfolioModel`
|
|
33
|
+
- `DeepPortfolioModel`
|
|
34
|
+
|
|
35
|
+
The library is built around finance-native contracts rather than generic tensor trainers:
|
|
36
|
+
|
|
37
|
+
- `PersistentPanelBatch` for stable-ID panels
|
|
38
|
+
- `CrossSectionBatch` for ragged dated cross-sections
|
|
39
|
+
- `PortfolioSequenceBatch` for sequence-to-allocation models
|
|
40
|
+
|
|
41
|
+
It also keeps the predictive steps explicit:
|
|
42
|
+
|
|
43
|
+
- structural extraction
|
|
44
|
+
- factor-premium forecasting
|
|
45
|
+
- asset mapping
|
|
46
|
+
- downstream prediction and weight frames for `ml4t-backtest` and `ml4t-diagnostic`
|
|
47
|
+
|
|
48
|
+

|
|
49
|
+
|
|
50
|
+
## Installation
|
|
51
|
+
|
|
52
|
+
```bash
|
|
53
|
+
pip install ml4t-models
|
|
54
|
+
```
|
|
55
|
+
|
|
56
|
+
Optional extras:
|
|
57
|
+
|
|
58
|
+
```bash
|
|
59
|
+
pip install ml4t-models[deep] # torch-backed neural models
|
|
60
|
+
pip install ml4t-models[integration] # polars + ml4t-specs bridges
|
|
61
|
+
pip install ml4t-models[docs] # mkdocs site build
|
|
62
|
+
pip install ml4t-models[all]
|
|
63
|
+
```
|
|
64
|
+
|
|
65
|
+
## Quick Start
|
|
66
|
+
|
|
67
|
+
### 1. Latent-Factor Forecast Pipeline
|
|
68
|
+
|
|
69
|
+
```python
|
|
70
|
+
import numpy as np
|
|
71
|
+
|
|
72
|
+
from ml4t.models import (
|
|
73
|
+
BetaLambdaMapper,
|
|
74
|
+
CrossSectionBatch,
|
|
75
|
+
ExpandingMeanFactorForecaster,
|
|
76
|
+
IPCAConfig,
|
|
77
|
+
IPCAModel,
|
|
78
|
+
LatentFactorForecastPipeline,
|
|
79
|
+
)
|
|
80
|
+
|
|
81
|
+
batch = CrossSectionBatch(
|
|
82
|
+
characteristics=np.random.randn(24, 200, 12),
|
|
83
|
+
returns=np.random.randn(24, 200),
|
|
84
|
+
timestamps=tuple(range(24)),
|
|
85
|
+
)
|
|
86
|
+
|
|
87
|
+
pipeline = LatentFactorForecastPipeline(
|
|
88
|
+
model=IPCAModel(IPCAConfig(n_factors=3)),
|
|
89
|
+
forecaster=ExpandingMeanFactorForecaster(),
|
|
90
|
+
mapper=BetaLambdaMapper(),
|
|
91
|
+
)
|
|
92
|
+
pipeline.fit(batch)
|
|
93
|
+
prediction = pipeline.predict(batch)
|
|
94
|
+
|
|
95
|
+
print(prediction.asset_forecast.expected_returns.shape)
|
|
96
|
+
# (24, 200)
|
|
97
|
+
```
|
|
98
|
+
|
|
99
|
+
### 2. Weight-Native Stochastic Discount Factor
|
|
100
|
+
|
|
101
|
+
```python
|
|
102
|
+
import numpy as np
|
|
103
|
+
|
|
104
|
+
from ml4t.models import CrossSectionBatch, StochasticDiscountFactorConfig, StochasticDiscountFactorModel
|
|
105
|
+
|
|
106
|
+
batch = CrossSectionBatch(
|
|
107
|
+
characteristics=np.random.randn(36, 300, 16),
|
|
108
|
+
returns=np.random.randn(36, 300),
|
|
109
|
+
context_features=np.random.randn(36, 8),
|
|
110
|
+
timestamps=tuple(range(36)),
|
|
111
|
+
)
|
|
112
|
+
|
|
113
|
+
model = StochasticDiscountFactorModel(
|
|
114
|
+
StochasticDiscountFactorConfig(checkpoint_epochs=(256, 512, 768, 1024, 1280))
|
|
115
|
+
)
|
|
116
|
+
model.fit(batch)
|
|
117
|
+
state = model.extract(batch, checkpoint=1280)
|
|
118
|
+
|
|
119
|
+
print(state.asset_weights.shape)
|
|
120
|
+
# (36, 300)
|
|
121
|
+
```
|
|
122
|
+
|
|
123
|
+
### 3. End-to-End Portfolio Learning
|
|
124
|
+
|
|
125
|
+
```python
|
|
126
|
+
import numpy as np
|
|
127
|
+
|
|
128
|
+
from ml4t.models import LSTMPortfolioConfig, LSTMPortfolioModel, PortfolioSequenceBatch
|
|
129
|
+
|
|
130
|
+
batch = PortfolioSequenceBatch(
|
|
131
|
+
features=np.random.randn(8, 63, 20, 10),
|
|
132
|
+
returns=np.random.randn(8, 63, 20),
|
|
133
|
+
timestamps=tuple(range(63)),
|
|
134
|
+
asset_ids=tuple(f"asset_{i}" for i in range(20)),
|
|
135
|
+
)
|
|
136
|
+
|
|
137
|
+
model = LSTMPortfolioModel(LSTMPortfolioConfig(max_iters=20, checkpoint_every=5))
|
|
138
|
+
model.fit(batch)
|
|
139
|
+
weights = model.predict(batch, checkpoint=20)
|
|
140
|
+
|
|
141
|
+
print(weights.weights.shape)
|
|
142
|
+
# (8, 63, 20)
|
|
143
|
+
```
|
|
144
|
+
|
|
145
|
+
### 4. Hand Off Predictions To The Rest Of ML4T
|
|
146
|
+
|
|
147
|
+
```python
|
|
148
|
+
from ml4t.models import predictions_frame_from_asset_forecast, write_backtest_frames
|
|
149
|
+
|
|
150
|
+
frame = predictions_frame_from_asset_forecast(prediction.asset_forecast)
|
|
151
|
+
write_backtest_frames("artifacts/run_001", predictions=frame)
|
|
152
|
+
```
|
|
153
|
+
|
|
154
|
+
## Model Families
|
|
155
|
+
|
|
156
|
+
### Latent Factors
|
|
157
|
+
|
|
158
|
+
These models estimate a structural representation first, then let a separate forecaster produce ex ante factor premia.
|
|
159
|
+
|
|
160
|
+
| Model | Contract | Native output | Predictive step |
|
|
161
|
+
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
162
|
+
| `PCAModel` | `PersistentPanelBatch` | static loadings, factor returns | factor-premium forecaster + mapper |
|
|
163
|
+
| `RPPCAModel` | `PersistentPanelBatch` | risk-premium-aware latent factors | factor-premium forecaster + mapper |
|
|
164
|
+
| `IPCAModel` | `CrossSectionBatch` | characteristic-implied betas, factor history | factor-premium forecaster + mapper |
|
|
165
|
+
| `CAEModel` | `CrossSectionBatch` | nonlinear characteristic betas, factor history | factor-premium forecaster + mapper |
|
|
166
|
+
|
|
167
|
+
### Stochastic Discount Factor
|
|
168
|
+
|
|
169
|
+
`StochasticDiscountFactorModel` is not a `beta × lambda` latent-factor model. It learns a weight-native no-arbitrage object and exposes:
|
|
170
|
+
|
|
171
|
+
- asset weights
|
|
172
|
+
- SDF series
|
|
173
|
+
- checkpointed phase-aware training state
|
|
174
|
+
|
|
175
|
+
Optional return projections are handled by separate mappers.
|
|
176
|
+
|
|
177
|
+
### Direct Asset Prediction
|
|
178
|
+
|
|
179
|
+
`SAEModel` is a supervised autoencoder signal model. In this library it is treated as a direct predictor, not a latent-factor model.
|
|
180
|
+
|
|
181
|
+
### Portfolio Learning
|
|
182
|
+
|
|
183
|
+
Portfolio models learn allocations directly:
|
|
184
|
+
|
|
185
|
+
- `LinearFeaturePortfolioModel` as a deterministic baseline
|
|
186
|
+
- `LSTMPortfolioModel` as a sequence baseline
|
|
187
|
+
- `DeepPortfolioModel` as a structured DeePM-style allocator
|
|
188
|
+
|
|
189
|
+
## Design Principles
|
|
190
|
+
|
|
191
|
+
- Finance-native data contracts rather than generic dataloaders
|
|
192
|
+
- Explicit structural and predictive stages
|
|
193
|
+
- Checkpoint-aware neural training
|
|
194
|
+
- Clear separation between:
|
|
195
|
+
- model estimation
|
|
196
|
+
- forecasting
|
|
197
|
+
- backtest and diagnostic integration
|
|
198
|
+
- Integration boundaries with sibling libraries instead of duplicated evaluation logic
|
|
199
|
+
|
|
200
|
+
## Documentation
|
|
201
|
+
|
|
202
|
+
- [Getting Started](docs/getting-started/quickstart.md)
|
|
203
|
+
- [User Guide](docs/user-guide/index.md)
|
|
204
|
+
- [Architecture](docs/reference/architecture.md)
|
|
205
|
+
- [API Reference](docs/api/index.md)
|
|
206
|
+
- [Book Guide](docs/book-guide/index.md)
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,165 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
[build-system]
|
|
2
|
+
requires = ["hatchling"]
|
|
3
|
+
build-backend = "hatchling.build"
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
[tool.hatch.version]
|
|
6
|
+
path = "src/ml4t/models/__init__.py"
|
|
7
|
+
|
|
8
|
+
[tool.hatch.build.targets.wheel]
|
|
9
|
+
packages = ["src/ml4t"]
|
|
10
|
+
namespaces = true
|
|
11
|
+
|
|
12
|
+
[tool.hatch.build.targets.sdist]
|
|
13
|
+
include = [
|
|
14
|
+
"/src",
|
|
15
|
+
"/tests",
|
|
16
|
+
"/README.md",
|
|
17
|
+
"/LICENSE",
|
|
18
|
+
"/CHANGELOG.md",
|
|
19
|
+
"/pyproject.toml",
|
|
20
|
+
]
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
[project]
|
|
23
|
+
name = "ml4t-models"
|
|
24
|
+
dynamic = ["version"]
|
|
25
|
+
description = "Finance-specific latent-factor and portfolio-learning models for ML4T"
|
|
26
|
+
readme = "README.md"
|
|
27
|
+
license = { text = "MIT" }
|
|
28
|
+
authors = [
|
|
29
|
+
{ name = "Stefan Jansen", email = "stefan@ml4trading.io" },
|
|
30
|
+
]
|
|
31
|
+
maintainers = [
|
|
32
|
+
{ name = "Stefan Jansen", email = "stefan@ml4trading.io" },
|
|
33
|
+
]
|
|
34
|
+
keywords = [
|
|
35
|
+
"finance",
|
|
36
|
+
"machine-learning",
|
|
37
|
+
"deep-learning",
|
|
38
|
+
"latent-factors",
|
|
39
|
+
"portfolio-learning",
|
|
40
|
+
"algorithmic-trading",
|
|
41
|
+
"quantitative-finance",
|
|
42
|
+
]
|
|
43
|
+
classifiers = [
|
|
44
|
+
"Development Status :: 3 - Alpha",
|
|
45
|
+
"Intended Audience :: Financial and Insurance Industry",
|
|
46
|
+
"Intended Audience :: Developers",
|
|
47
|
+
"Intended Audience :: Science/Research",
|
|
48
|
+
"License :: OSI Approved :: MIT License",
|
|
49
|
+
"Operating System :: OS Independent",
|
|
50
|
+
"Programming Language :: Python :: 3",
|
|
51
|
+
"Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12",
|
|
52
|
+
"Programming Language :: Python :: 3.13",
|
|
53
|
+
"Topic :: Office/Business :: Financial :: Investment",
|
|
54
|
+
"Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Artificial Intelligence",
|
|
55
|
+
"Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Information Analysis",
|
|
56
|
+
"Typing :: Typed",
|
|
57
|
+
]
|
|
58
|
+
requires-python = ">=3.12,<3.14"
|
|
59
|
+
dependencies = [
|
|
60
|
+
"numpy>=1.26,<2.3",
|
|
61
|
+
]
|
|
62
|
+
|
|
63
|
+
[project.optional-dependencies]
|
|
64
|
+
deep = [
|
|
65
|
+
"torch>=2.4",
|
|
66
|
+
]
|
|
67
|
+
integration = [
|
|
68
|
+
"polars>=1.0.0",
|
|
69
|
+
"ml4t-specs>=0.1.0b0",
|
|
70
|
+
]
|
|
71
|
+
dev = [
|
|
72
|
+
"pytest>=8.0.0",
|
|
73
|
+
"pytest-cov>=5.0.0",
|
|
74
|
+
"ruff>=0.8.0",
|
|
75
|
+
"ty",
|
|
76
|
+
"pre-commit>=3.3.0",
|
|
77
|
+
"torch>=2.4",
|
|
78
|
+
]
|
|
79
|
+
docs = [
|
|
80
|
+
"mkdocs>=1.6,<2",
|
|
81
|
+
"mkdocs-material>=9.5.0",
|
|
82
|
+
"mkdocstrings[python]>=0.24.0",
|
|
83
|
+
]
|
|
84
|
+
all = [
|
|
85
|
+
"ml4t-models[deep,dev,docs,integration]",
|
|
86
|
+
]
|
|
87
|
+
|
|
88
|
+
[project.urls]
|
|
89
|
+
Homepage = "https://ml4trading.io/docs/models/"
|
|
90
|
+
Documentation = "https://ml4trading.io/docs/models/"
|
|
91
|
+
Repository = "https://github.com/ml4t/models"
|
|
92
|
+
Issues = "https://github.com/ml4t/models/issues"
|
|
93
|
+
Changelog = "https://github.com/ml4t/models/blob/main/CHANGELOG.md"
|
|
94
|
+
|
|
95
|
+
[dependency-groups]
|
|
96
|
+
dev = [
|
|
97
|
+
"pytest>=8.0.0",
|
|
98
|
+
"pytest-cov>=5.0.0",
|
|
99
|
+
"ruff>=0.8.0",
|
|
100
|
+
"ty",
|
|
101
|
+
"pre-commit>=3.3.0",
|
|
102
|
+
"torch>=2.4",
|
|
103
|
+
"twine>=6.0.0",
|
|
104
|
+
]
|
|
105
|
+
|
|
106
|
+
[tool.pytest.ini_options]
|
|
107
|
+
pythonpath = ["src"]
|
|
108
|
+
testpaths = ["tests"]
|
|
109
|
+
python_files = ["test_*.py"]
|
|
110
|
+
python_classes = ["Test*"]
|
|
111
|
+
python_functions = ["test_*"]
|
|
112
|
+
addopts = [
|
|
113
|
+
"-ra",
|
|
114
|
+
"--strict-markers",
|
|
115
|
+
"--cov=ml4t.models",
|
|
116
|
+
"--cov-report=term-missing",
|
|
117
|
+
]
|
|
118
|
+
markers = [
|
|
119
|
+
"slow: marks tests as slow",
|
|
120
|
+
"optional_dependency: marks tests requiring optional heavy dependencies",
|
|
121
|
+
]
|
|
122
|
+
|
|
123
|
+
[tool.ruff]
|
|
124
|
+
line-length = 100
|
|
125
|
+
target-version = "py312"
|
|
126
|
+
fix = true
|
|
127
|
+
|
|
128
|
+
[tool.ruff.lint]
|
|
129
|
+
select = [
|
|
130
|
+
"E",
|
|
131
|
+
"W",
|
|
132
|
+
"F",
|
|
133
|
+
"I",
|
|
134
|
+
"B",
|
|
135
|
+
"C4",
|
|
136
|
+
"UP",
|
|
137
|
+
"ARG",
|
|
138
|
+
"SIM",
|
|
139
|
+
]
|
|
140
|
+
ignore = [
|
|
141
|
+
"E501",
|
|
142
|
+
"B008",
|
|
143
|
+
]
|
|
144
|
+
|
|
145
|
+
[tool.ruff.lint.per-file-ignores]
|
|
146
|
+
"tests/*" = ["ARG001", "ARG002", "B017", "SIM108"]
|
|
147
|
+
|
|
148
|
+
[tool.ty.environment]
|
|
149
|
+
python-version = "3.12"
|
|
150
|
+
root = ["src"]
|
|
151
|
+
|
|
152
|
+
[tool.ty.src]
|
|
153
|
+
include = ["src"]
|
|
154
|
+
exclude = ["tests"]
|
|
155
|
+
|
|
156
|
+
[tool.coverage.run]
|
|
157
|
+
source = ["src/ml4t/models"]
|
|
158
|
+
omit = ["*/__init__.py"]
|
|
159
|
+
|
|
160
|
+
[tool.coverage.report]
|
|
161
|
+
exclude_lines = [
|
|
162
|
+
"pragma: no cover",
|
|
163
|
+
"raise NotImplementedError",
|
|
164
|
+
"@abstractmethod",
|
|
165
|
+
]
|