mcarma 0.1.2__tar.gz

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  1. mcarma-0.1.2/CITATION.cff +42 -0
  2. mcarma-0.1.2/LICENSE +201 -0
  3. mcarma-0.1.2/MANIFEST.in +19 -0
  4. mcarma-0.1.2/PKG-INFO +188 -0
  5. mcarma-0.1.2/README.md +149 -0
  6. mcarma-0.1.2/examples/README.md +96 -0
  7. mcarma-0.1.2/examples/cross_band_coherence.py +113 -0
  8. mcarma-0.1.2/examples/data/1000679 +65 -0
  9. mcarma-0.1.2/examples/one_band_psd.py +95 -0
  10. mcarma-0.1.2/examples/sdss_stripe82_demo.py +128 -0
  11. mcarma-0.1.2/examples/stripe82.py +83 -0
  12. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/__init__.py +54 -0
  13. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/bootstrap.py +178 -0
  14. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/fit.py +2025 -0
  15. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/gic.py +150 -0
  16. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/inference.py +353 -0
  17. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/jax_loglik.py +494 -0
  18. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/jax_transitions.py +151 -0
  19. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/kalman.py +448 -0
  20. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/model_utils.py +468 -0
  21. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/observation.py +73 -0
  22. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/optimizer_utils.py +284 -0
  23. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/parameters.py +277 -0
  24. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/pipeline.py +84 -0
  25. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/preprocess.py +27 -0
  26. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/priors.py +53 -0
  27. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/reporting.py +108 -0
  28. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/rts.py +239 -0
  29. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/simulate.py +227 -0
  30. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/smoother.py +345 -0
  31. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/stage2.py +340 -0
  32. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma/statespace.py +260 -0
  33. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma.egg-info/PKG-INFO +188 -0
  34. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma.egg-info/SOURCES.txt +47 -0
  35. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma.egg-info/dependency_links.txt +1 -0
  36. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma.egg-info/requires.txt +18 -0
  37. mcarma-0.1.2/mcarma.egg-info/top_level.txt +1 -0
  38. mcarma-0.1.2/pyproject.toml +67 -0
  39. mcarma-0.1.2/setup.cfg +4 -0
  40. mcarma-0.1.2/tests/test_core_invariants.py +129 -0
  41. mcarma-0.1.2/tests/test_corr_ridge.py +130 -0
  42. mcarma-0.1.2/tests/test_diag_load.py +128 -0
  43. mcarma-0.1.2/tests/test_gic.py +127 -0
  44. mcarma-0.1.2/tests/test_inference_dispatch.py +153 -0
  45. mcarma-0.1.2/tests/test_pipeline_fit_and_score.py +131 -0
  46. mcarma-0.1.2/tests/test_preconditioner.py +247 -0
  47. mcarma-0.1.2/tests/test_priors_golden.py +165 -0
  48. mcarma-0.1.2/tests/test_restart_tiers.py +120 -0
  49. mcarma-0.1.2/tests/test_rts_reconstruction.py +85 -0
@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
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+ cff-version: 1.2.0
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+ message: "If you use this software, please cite both the software and the paper below."
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+ title: "mcarma: multivariate continuous-time ARMA modeling of astronomical multi-band light curves"
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+ version: "0.1.2"
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+ license: Apache-2.0
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+ type: software
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+ authors:
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+ - family-names: Schmidlkofer
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+ given-names: Izak
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+ affiliation: "Department of Statistics, Oregon State University"
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+ email: schmidiz@oregonstate.edu
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+ - family-names: Hu
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+ given-names: Zhirui
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+ affiliation: "Department of Statistics, Oregon State University"
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+ - family-names: Shi
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+ given-names: Lishan
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+ affiliation: "Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University"
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+ - family-names: Yu
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+ given-names: Weixiang
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+ affiliation: "The Research Institute of Basic Sciences, Pennsylvania State University"
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+ - family-names: Tak
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+ given-names: Hyungsuk
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+ orcid: "https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0334-8742"
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+ affiliation: "Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University"
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+ email: tak@psu.edu
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+ # TODO before submission: fill in journal, year, volume, pages and DOI once the
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+ # companion papers are accepted, and add a software DOI (Zenodo) here.
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+ preferred-citation:
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+ type: article
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+ title: "Multivariate continuous-time autoregressive moving average modeling of astronomical multi-band time series"
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+ authors:
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+ - family-names: Schmidlkofer
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+ given-names: Izak
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+ - family-names: Hu
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+ given-names: Zhirui
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+ - family-names: Shi
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+ given-names: Lishan
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+ - family-names: Yu
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+ given-names: Weixiang
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+ - family-names: Tak
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+ given-names: Hyungsuk
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+ year: 2026
mcarma-0.1.2/LICENSE ADDED
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@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
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+ include LICENSE
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+ include README.md
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+ include CITATION.cff
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+
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+ # The demo light curve and its walkthrough. Without these the documented
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+ # examples do not run from an installed copy, only from a repo checkout.
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+ recursive-include examples *.py
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+ include examples/README.md
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+ include examples/data/*
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+
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+ # The research tree stays out of the distribution. Nothing above sweeps it in
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+ # today, so these are here to keep a future include from doing it by accident.
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+ prune docs
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+ prune memo
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+ prune fits
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+ prune data
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+ prune weixiang
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+ prune .claude
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+ prune .github
mcarma-0.1.2/PKG-INFO ADDED
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+ Metadata-Version: 2.4
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+ Name: mcarma
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+ Version: 0.1.2
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+ Summary: Multivariate continuous-time ARMA modeling of irregularly sampled astronomical multi-band light curves
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+ Author: Izak Schmidlkofer, Zhirui Hu, Lishan Shi, Weixiang Yu, Hyungsuk Tak
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+ Maintainer-email: Izak Schmidlkofer <schmidiz@oregonstate.edu>
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+ License-Expression: Apache-2.0
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+ Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/ischmidls/mcarma
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+ Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/ischmidls/mcarma
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+ Project-URL: Issues, https://github.com/ischmidls/mcarma/issues
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+ Keywords: time series,state space,Kalman filter,CARMA,astronomy,quasars
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+ Classifier: Development Status :: 4 - Beta
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+ Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
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+ Classifier: Operating System :: OS Independent
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+ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
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+ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.10
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+ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.11
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+ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12
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+ Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Astronomy
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+ Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Physics
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+ Requires-Python: >=3.10
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+ Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
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+ License-File: LICENSE
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+ Requires-Dist: numpy>=1.24
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+ Requires-Dist: scipy>=1.10
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+ Requires-Dist: jax>=0.4
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+ Provides-Extra: plots
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+ Requires-Dist: matplotlib>=3.7; extra == "plots"
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+ Provides-Extra: numdiff
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+ Requires-Dist: numdifftools>=0.9; extra == "numdiff"
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+ Provides-Extra: analysis
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+ Requires-Dist: pandas>=2.0; extra == "analysis"
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+ Requires-Dist: statsmodels>=0.14; extra == "analysis"
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+ Provides-Extra: dev
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+ Requires-Dist: pytest>=7; extra == "dev"
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+ Requires-Dist: build>=1.0; extra == "dev"
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+ Requires-Dist: twine>=5.0; extra == "dev"
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+ Dynamic: license-file
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+
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+ # mcarma
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+
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+ Fit multivariate continuous-time autoregressive moving average (MCARMA) models
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+ jointly to irregularly sampled multi-band astronomical time series.
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+
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+ The package extends multivariate damped random walk modeling to higher-order
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+ stochastic dynamics. Each band can have its own temporal dynamics, while
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+ dependence across bands is modeled through correlated stochastic drivers. The
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+ resulting matrix-valued power spectral density characterizes both marginal
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+ variability within individual bands and dependence across bands.
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+
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+ mcarma supports irregular sampling, heteroscedastic measurement errors, and
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+ partially observed bands, and fits the joint model using penalized maximum
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+ likelihood and state-space computation.
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+
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+ ```bash
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+ pip install mcarma
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+ ```
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+
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+ Not on PyPI until the papers are submitted; until then install from a
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+ checkout (see Development at the bottom).
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+
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+ ## Fit one multi-band object
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+
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+ ```python
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+ import numpy as np
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+ from mcarma import ObservationData, fit, compute_aicc, mcarma_psd
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+
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+ # One scalar measurement per row: time, magnitude, which band, and the
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+ # measurement variance. Bands need not be observed together.
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+ data = ObservationData(t_obs=t, y_obs=y, band=band, R=err**2, d=5)
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+
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+ res = fit(data, p=2, q=1, n_restarts=4, use_jax_grad=True)
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+
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+ k = 5 * 2 + 5 * 1 + 5 * 6 // 2 + 5 # AR + MA + chol(Sigma) + mu
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+ aicc = compute_aicc(res["loglik_pure"], k, data.n)
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+
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+ freqs = np.logspace(-3.5, -0.7, 400) # cycles per day
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+ psd = mcarma_psd(res["F"], res["G"], res["H"], res["Sigma"], freqs)
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+ psd[:, 2, 2] # the r band's own spectrum
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+ ```
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+
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+ Each band is centered internally, so pass raw magnitudes. `res["theta"]` is the
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+ fitted parameter vector, `res["loglik"]` the penalized value and
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+ `res["loglik_pure"]` the plain one, which is what AICc must be scored on.
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+ `res["hess_inv"]` carries the inverse Hessian when the optimizer produced one.
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+
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+ ## Examples
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+
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+ Three runnable examples are included using an SDSS Stripe 82 quasar light curve
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+ distributed with the package. The examples require no external data downloads
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+ and can be run on a standard computer.
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+
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+ | script | what it does | roughly how long |
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+ | --- | --- | --- |
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+ | `one_band_psd.py` | fits one filter, prints the variability timescale and the spectrum around its break | 10 seconds |
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+ | `cross_band_coherence.py` | jointly fits all five filters and estimates cross-band coherence and marginal PSDs | 1 minute |
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+ | `sdss_stripe82_demo.py` | the full walkthrough: the (1,0)/(2,0)/(2,1) order ladder, AICc selection, light curve and PSD figure | several minutes |
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+
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+ ```bash
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+ pip install mcarma[plots]
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+
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+ python examples/one_band_psd.py # r band, prints only
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+ python examples/one_band_psd.py --band g
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+ python examples/cross_band_coherence.py # writes cross_band_coherence.png
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+ python examples/sdss_stripe82_demo.py --quick # (1,0) only
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+ python examples/sdss_stripe82_demo.py # the whole ladder
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+ ```
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+
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+ `one_band_psd.py` prints its results and needs no plotting library. The other
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+ two write a PNG, so they need matplotlib, which is the `plots` extra above.
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+ Every script takes `--obj PATH` to point at a different Stripe 82 file, and the
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+ examples directory carries a longer walkthrough of what each one shows.
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+
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+ ## Model
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+
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+ mcarma represents a $d$-band astronomical time series as a joint
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+ continuous-time stochastic process. Band-specific ARMA dynamics determine the
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+ marginal temporal behavior, while correlated Wiener drivers introduce
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+ dependence across bands.
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+
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+ $$dZ(t)=F Z(t)dt + G\,dB(t),\ \mathrm{Cov}(dB)=\Sigma dt;\quad
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+ Y_k = C_k(\mu + H Z_k) + \varepsilon_k,\ \varepsilon_k\sim N(0,R_k).$$
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+
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+ $F$ is built from AR Jones factors, $H$ from MA Jones factors. Under the
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+ structured MCARMA formulation implemented here, cross-band dependence is
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+ introduced through the covariance matrix $\Sigma$ of the Wiener drivers.
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+
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+ Parameter vector:
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+
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+ ```
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+ theta = [ AR | MA | chol(Sigma) | mu ], dim = d*p + d*q + d(d+1)/2 + d
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+ ```
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+
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+ AR/MA factor coefficients are stored in log space (positive roots). An MA linear
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+ factor `b` places a zero at frequency `1/b`, so to put a zero in the observable
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+ band you set `b = 1/omega_z`. That convention matters.
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+
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+ The likelihood is the Kalman prediction-error decomposition
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+ (`mcarma/kalman.py`) with exact irregular-gap transitions
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+ (`mcarma/statespace.py`, Lyapunov `Qd`). The analytic
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+ gradient and Hessian-vector products are in
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+ `mcarma/jax_loglik.py` and are what `use_jax_grad=True`
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+ selects. Production fits use regularization to improve numerical stability and
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+ discourage poorly identified parameter configurations; model comparison is
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+ based on the ordinary, unpenalized likelihood. Standard errors are taken from
146
+ the penalized Hessian.
147
+
148
+ ## Dependencies
149
+
150
+ numpy, scipy and jax. matplotlib, numdifftools, and pandas with statsmodels are
151
+ extras (`plots`, `numdiff`, `analysis`) used by the figures, the fallback
152
+ Hessian, and the analysis scripts.
153
+
154
+ Importing `mcarma` does not import jax. The analytic-gradient objective
155
+ (`mcarma.jax_loglik`), the transition helpers (`mcarma.jax_transitions`), the
156
+ RTS smoother (`mcarma.smoother`) and the reconstruction helpers (`mcarma.rts`)
157
+ import it at module load, so import those explicitly when you need them. On a
158
+ shared cluster that means importing them inside a job rather than on a login
159
+ node, where jax cannot start its thread pool.
160
+
161
+ The library logs its fit progress through the standard `logging` module and
162
+ attaches no handler, so it is silent until an application configures one:
163
+
164
+ ```python
165
+ import logging
166
+ logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(message)s")
167
+ ```
168
+
169
+ ## References
170
+
171
+ - Kelly, B. C. et al. (2014), CARMA for stochastic variability.
172
+ - Hu, Z. et al. (2020), multiband damped random walk.
173
+ - Jones & Ackerson (1990); Cox & Snell (1968); Cordeiro & Klein (1994);
174
+ Politis, Romano & Wolf (1999).
175
+
176
+ ---
177
+
178
+ ## Development
179
+
180
+ ```bash
181
+ git clone https://github.com/ischmidls/mcarma
182
+ cd mcarma
183
+ pip install -e ".[plots,numdiff,analysis,dev]"
184
+ pytest tests/
185
+ ```
186
+
187
+ The research behind the package, the simulation study and the SDSS Stripe 82
188
+ pipeline the papers report, lives in a separate repository.
mcarma-0.1.2/README.md ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
1
+ # mcarma
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+
3
+ Fit multivariate continuous-time autoregressive moving average (MCARMA) models
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+ jointly to irregularly sampled multi-band astronomical time series.
5
+
6
+ The package extends multivariate damped random walk modeling to higher-order
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+ stochastic dynamics. Each band can have its own temporal dynamics, while
8
+ dependence across bands is modeled through correlated stochastic drivers. The
9
+ resulting matrix-valued power spectral density characterizes both marginal
10
+ variability within individual bands and dependence across bands.
11
+
12
+ mcarma supports irregular sampling, heteroscedastic measurement errors, and
13
+ partially observed bands, and fits the joint model using penalized maximum
14
+ likelihood and state-space computation.
15
+
16
+ ```bash
17
+ pip install mcarma
18
+ ```
19
+
20
+ Not on PyPI until the papers are submitted; until then install from a
21
+ checkout (see Development at the bottom).
22
+
23
+ ## Fit one multi-band object
24
+
25
+ ```python
26
+ import numpy as np
27
+ from mcarma import ObservationData, fit, compute_aicc, mcarma_psd
28
+
29
+ # One scalar measurement per row: time, magnitude, which band, and the
30
+ # measurement variance. Bands need not be observed together.
31
+ data = ObservationData(t_obs=t, y_obs=y, band=band, R=err**2, d=5)
32
+
33
+ res = fit(data, p=2, q=1, n_restarts=4, use_jax_grad=True)
34
+
35
+ k = 5 * 2 + 5 * 1 + 5 * 6 // 2 + 5 # AR + MA + chol(Sigma) + mu
36
+ aicc = compute_aicc(res["loglik_pure"], k, data.n)
37
+
38
+ freqs = np.logspace(-3.5, -0.7, 400) # cycles per day
39
+ psd = mcarma_psd(res["F"], res["G"], res["H"], res["Sigma"], freqs)
40
+ psd[:, 2, 2] # the r band's own spectrum
41
+ ```
42
+
43
+ Each band is centered internally, so pass raw magnitudes. `res["theta"]` is the
44
+ fitted parameter vector, `res["loglik"]` the penalized value and
45
+ `res["loglik_pure"]` the plain one, which is what AICc must be scored on.
46
+ `res["hess_inv"]` carries the inverse Hessian when the optimizer produced one.
47
+
48
+ ## Examples
49
+
50
+ Three runnable examples are included using an SDSS Stripe 82 quasar light curve
51
+ distributed with the package. The examples require no external data downloads
52
+ and can be run on a standard computer.
53
+
54
+ | script | what it does | roughly how long |
55
+ | --- | --- | --- |
56
+ | `one_band_psd.py` | fits one filter, prints the variability timescale and the spectrum around its break | 10 seconds |
57
+ | `cross_band_coherence.py` | jointly fits all five filters and estimates cross-band coherence and marginal PSDs | 1 minute |
58
+ | `sdss_stripe82_demo.py` | the full walkthrough: the (1,0)/(2,0)/(2,1) order ladder, AICc selection, light curve and PSD figure | several minutes |
59
+
60
+ ```bash
61
+ pip install mcarma[plots]
62
+
63
+ python examples/one_band_psd.py # r band, prints only
64
+ python examples/one_band_psd.py --band g
65
+ python examples/cross_band_coherence.py # writes cross_band_coherence.png
66
+ python examples/sdss_stripe82_demo.py --quick # (1,0) only
67
+ python examples/sdss_stripe82_demo.py # the whole ladder
68
+ ```
69
+
70
+ `one_band_psd.py` prints its results and needs no plotting library. The other
71
+ two write a PNG, so they need matplotlib, which is the `plots` extra above.
72
+ Every script takes `--obj PATH` to point at a different Stripe 82 file, and the
73
+ examples directory carries a longer walkthrough of what each one shows.
74
+
75
+ ## Model
76
+
77
+ mcarma represents a $d$-band astronomical time series as a joint
78
+ continuous-time stochastic process. Band-specific ARMA dynamics determine the
79
+ marginal temporal behavior, while correlated Wiener drivers introduce
80
+ dependence across bands.
81
+
82
+ $$dZ(t)=F Z(t)dt + G\,dB(t),\ \mathrm{Cov}(dB)=\Sigma dt;\quad
83
+ Y_k = C_k(\mu + H Z_k) + \varepsilon_k,\ \varepsilon_k\sim N(0,R_k).$$
84
+
85
+ $F$ is built from AR Jones factors, $H$ from MA Jones factors. Under the
86
+ structured MCARMA formulation implemented here, cross-band dependence is
87
+ introduced through the covariance matrix $\Sigma$ of the Wiener drivers.
88
+
89
+ Parameter vector:
90
+
91
+ ```
92
+ theta = [ AR | MA | chol(Sigma) | mu ], dim = d*p + d*q + d(d+1)/2 + d
93
+ ```
94
+
95
+ AR/MA factor coefficients are stored in log space (positive roots). An MA linear
96
+ factor `b` places a zero at frequency `1/b`, so to put a zero in the observable
97
+ band you set `b = 1/omega_z`. That convention matters.
98
+
99
+ The likelihood is the Kalman prediction-error decomposition
100
+ (`mcarma/kalman.py`) with exact irregular-gap transitions
101
+ (`mcarma/statespace.py`, Lyapunov `Qd`). The analytic
102
+ gradient and Hessian-vector products are in
103
+ `mcarma/jax_loglik.py` and are what `use_jax_grad=True`
104
+ selects. Production fits use regularization to improve numerical stability and
105
+ discourage poorly identified parameter configurations; model comparison is
106
+ based on the ordinary, unpenalized likelihood. Standard errors are taken from
107
+ the penalized Hessian.
108
+
109
+ ## Dependencies
110
+
111
+ numpy, scipy and jax. matplotlib, numdifftools, and pandas with statsmodels are
112
+ extras (`plots`, `numdiff`, `analysis`) used by the figures, the fallback
113
+ Hessian, and the analysis scripts.
114
+
115
+ Importing `mcarma` does not import jax. The analytic-gradient objective
116
+ (`mcarma.jax_loglik`), the transition helpers (`mcarma.jax_transitions`), the
117
+ RTS smoother (`mcarma.smoother`) and the reconstruction helpers (`mcarma.rts`)
118
+ import it at module load, so import those explicitly when you need them. On a
119
+ shared cluster that means importing them inside a job rather than on a login
120
+ node, where jax cannot start its thread pool.
121
+
122
+ The library logs its fit progress through the standard `logging` module and
123
+ attaches no handler, so it is silent until an application configures one:
124
+
125
+ ```python
126
+ import logging
127
+ logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(message)s")
128
+ ```
129
+
130
+ ## References
131
+
132
+ - Kelly, B. C. et al. (2014), CARMA for stochastic variability.
133
+ - Hu, Z. et al. (2020), multiband damped random walk.
134
+ - Jones & Ackerson (1990); Cox & Snell (1968); Cordeiro & Klein (1994);
135
+ Politis, Romano & Wolf (1999).
136
+
137
+ ---
138
+
139
+ ## Development
140
+
141
+ ```bash
142
+ git clone https://github.com/ischmidls/mcarma
143
+ cd mcarma
144
+ pip install -e ".[plots,numdiff,analysis,dev]"
145
+ pytest tests/
146
+ ```
147
+
148
+ The research behind the package, the simulation study and the SDSS Stripe 82
149
+ pipeline the papers report, lives in a separate repository.