lebre 0.1.0__tar.gz

lebre-0.1.0/.gitignore

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+__pycache__/
+*.pyc
+.pytest_cache/
+build/
+dist/
+*.egg-info/
+.venv/

lebre-0.1.0/CHANGELOG.md

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+# Changelog
+
+## 0.1.0 — 2026-10-01
+
+First release. Implements **LEBRE v0.52-r1** (canonical configuration) as frozen in the research record (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23049103).
+
+**Fidelity.** In the reference environment (Windows, CPython 3.11, NumPy 2.2.5), forecasts, interval, events and cost accounting are bit-for-bit identical to the frozen research code. On other platforms and NumPy versions, rounding differs in the last bits; the tests then require identical structural decisions and forecasts within 1e-9 of their scale. This is checked on:
+- seven synthetic scenarios (`tests/test_regression.py`);
+- four real reserve-3 series, in the research repository (`scripts/check_lebre_package.py`).
+
+**API:**
+- `Lebre(n_inputs, season, season2)`;
+- `predict` / `observe` / `step`;
+- adaptive 90% interval;
+- audit `events`, `structure`, `response`, `equivalent_inputs`;
+- `coverage`, `cost_per_step`;
+- `save` / `load`.
+
+**Differences from the research code** (no effect on results):
+- Branches used only by research ablations were removed.
+- The single `step` was split into `predict` + `observe`.
+- Interval hits are counted instead of stored.
+- Missing input values (NaN) do not update the input standardiser; the research pipeline assumed complete inputs.

lebre-0.1.0/CITATION.cff

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+cff-version: 1.2.0
+message: "If you use this software, please cite the LEBRE research record it implements."
+type: software
+title: "lebre: online forecasting with statistically tested structural changes"
+version: "0.1.0"
+authors:
+  - family-names: "Lima"
+    given-names: "Silvano"
+    orcid: "https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3868-6747"
+license: Apache-2.0
+references:
+  - type: software
+    title: "LEBRE research record — v0.52-r1"
+    authors:
+      - family-names: "Lima"
+        given-names: "Silvano"
+    doi: "10.5281/zenodo.23049103"

lebre-0.1.0/LICENSE

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lebre-0.1.0/PKG-INFO

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+Metadata-Version: 2.5
+Name: lebre
+Version: 0.1.0
+Summary: Online one-step-ahead forecasting with statistically tested structural changes, at a cost of a few hundred operations per step (implements LEBRE v0.52-r1).
+Project-URL: Source, https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre
+Project-URL: Issues, https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre/issues
+Project-URL: Research record, https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre-research
+Project-URL: Research DOI, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23049103
+Author: Silvano Lima
+License-Expression: Apache-2.0
+License-File: LICENSE
+Keywords: TinyML,anytime-valid inference,e-process,exogenous inputs,online forecasting,time series
+Classifier: Development Status :: 3 - Alpha
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
+Classifier: Operating System :: OS Independent
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
+Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Information Analysis
+Requires-Python: >=3.10
+Requires-Dist: numpy>=1.24
+Provides-Extra: test
+Requires-Dist: pytest>=7; extra == 'test'
+Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
+
+# lebre
+
+[![tests](https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre/actions/workflows/tests.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre/actions/workflows/tests.yml)
+
+Online one-step-ahead forecasting for a target driven by exogenous inputs, with **statistically tested structural changes**, at a cost of a few hundred floating-point operations per step.
+
+`lebre 0.1.0` implements **LEBRE v0.52-r1**, the frozen research version documented and evaluated in the research record:
+- repository: https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre-research
+- DOI: [10.5281/zenodo.23049103](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23049103)
+
+The package reproduces the research code **bit for bit in the reference environment** (Windows, CPython 3.11, NumPy 2.2.5), checked against references generated from the frozen code and on real evaluation series in the research repository. On other platforms and NumPy versions, floating-point rounding differs in the last bits (~1e-14): the regression tests then require identical structural decisions and forecasts equal within 1e-9 of their scale.
+
+```bash
+pip install lebre
+```
+
+## Usage
+
+```python
+from lebre import Lebre
+
+model = Lebre(n_inputs=3, season=24)        # season: declared cycle in steps (None if there is none)
+for x_t, y_t in stream:                     # x_t: current inputs (length 3), y_t: target (None/NaN if missing)
+    f = model.predict(x_t)                  # Forecast(value, lower, upper, t), issued before y_t is known
+    model.observe(y_t)
+    # or: f = model.step(x_t, y_t)
+
+model.structure                             # e.g. ['x0', 'own_past']
+model.response("x0")                        # recovered lag response: [((lag_lo, lag_hi), weight per lag), ...]
+model.events                                # audit log: Event(t, outcome, change, added, removed, log_evidence, samples)
+model.equivalent_inputs("x0")               # inputs indistinguishable from x0 (causal correlation >= 0.95)
+model.coverage, model.cost_per_step         # empirical 90%-interval coverage; analytic operations per step
+model.save("state.pkl"); model = Lebre.load("state.pkl")   # pickle: load only files you trust
+```
+
+See `examples/quickstart.py`.
+
+## What it does
+
+- **Live model:**
+  - a memory of the target's own past: level, declared cycle(s), per-phase profile;
+  - a linear regression on the current inputs;
+  - the two combined by dynamic model averaging.
+- **Structural changes run in shadow as experiments:** adding, removing or swapping a whole input, or refining its lag response by hierarchical splits of octave bands.
+- **Acceptance:** a change is accepted only when an anytime-valid e-process of predictive improvement crosses a level fixed by an online multiple-testing rule.
+- **Output safeguards:** target gaps are held (never filled with the model's own forecasts), and forecasts stay within an envelope of the observed values.
+- **Inputs:** they are standardised causally inside the model; set `standardize=False` only if you already do this with past-only statistics.
+
+## Scope and limits
+
+These are the limits of the evaluated version, stated honestly (details in the specification, §19):
+- evaluated on hydrology and building-energy series with 1–5 inputs, one step ahead;
+- it is **not** meant to be the most accurate forecaster: in the evaluations it tied a SARIMAX with inputs fitted per series and had ~25% higher error than Chronos-2 with covariates, at a tiny fraction of the cost;
+- the testing mechanism does not improve accuracy over switching all inputs on; its role is an audited, evidence-backed structure;
+- an accepted input means *it improved the forecast of the current model, with evidence*, not *it is the cause*: correlated substitutes can be accepted, and near-identical inputs are indistinguishable;
+- the e-values are valid under the stated assumptions; false-change control with the adaptive reference was verified empirically;
+- delays of very smooth inputs are often not discovered (information limit), though forecasts remain good;
+- the declared cost contract of the research version (mean ≤ 400, peak ≤ 1,000 operations per step) was narrowly not met.
+
+## Licence
+
+Apache-2.0. If you use it, please cite the research record (`CITATION.cff`).

lebre-0.1.0/README.md

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+# lebre
+
+[![tests](https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre/actions/workflows/tests.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre/actions/workflows/tests.yml)
+
+Online one-step-ahead forecasting for a target driven by exogenous inputs, with **statistically tested structural changes**, at a cost of a few hundred floating-point operations per step.
+
+`lebre 0.1.0` implements **LEBRE v0.52-r1**, the frozen research version documented and evaluated in the research record:
+- repository: https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre-research
+- DOI: [10.5281/zenodo.23049103](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23049103)
+
+The package reproduces the research code **bit for bit in the reference environment** (Windows, CPython 3.11, NumPy 2.2.5), checked against references generated from the frozen code and on real evaluation series in the research repository. On other platforms and NumPy versions, floating-point rounding differs in the last bits (~1e-14): the regression tests then require identical structural decisions and forecasts equal within 1e-9 of their scale.
+
+```bash
+pip install lebre
+```
+
+## Usage
+
+```python
+from lebre import Lebre
+
+model = Lebre(n_inputs=3, season=24)        # season: declared cycle in steps (None if there is none)
+for x_t, y_t in stream:                     # x_t: current inputs (length 3), y_t: target (None/NaN if missing)
+    f = model.predict(x_t)                  # Forecast(value, lower, upper, t), issued before y_t is known
+    model.observe(y_t)
+    # or: f = model.step(x_t, y_t)
+
+model.structure                             # e.g. ['x0', 'own_past']
+model.response("x0")                        # recovered lag response: [((lag_lo, lag_hi), weight per lag), ...]
+model.events                                # audit log: Event(t, outcome, change, added, removed, log_evidence, samples)
+model.equivalent_inputs("x0")               # inputs indistinguishable from x0 (causal correlation >= 0.95)
+model.coverage, model.cost_per_step         # empirical 90%-interval coverage; analytic operations per step
+model.save("state.pkl"); model = Lebre.load("state.pkl")   # pickle: load only files you trust
+```
+
+See `examples/quickstart.py`.
+
+## What it does
+
+- **Live model:**
+  - a memory of the target's own past: level, declared cycle(s), per-phase profile;
+  - a linear regression on the current inputs;
+  - the two combined by dynamic model averaging.
+- **Structural changes run in shadow as experiments:** adding, removing or swapping a whole input, or refining its lag response by hierarchical splits of octave bands.
+- **Acceptance:** a change is accepted only when an anytime-valid e-process of predictive improvement crosses a level fixed by an online multiple-testing rule.
+- **Output safeguards:** target gaps are held (never filled with the model's own forecasts), and forecasts stay within an envelope of the observed values.
+- **Inputs:** they are standardised causally inside the model; set `standardize=False` only if you already do this with past-only statistics.
+
+## Scope and limits
+
+These are the limits of the evaluated version, stated honestly (details in the specification, §19):
+- evaluated on hydrology and building-energy series with 1–5 inputs, one step ahead;
+- it is **not** meant to be the most accurate forecaster: in the evaluations it tied a SARIMAX with inputs fitted per series and had ~25% higher error than Chronos-2 with covariates, at a tiny fraction of the cost;
+- the testing mechanism does not improve accuracy over switching all inputs on; its role is an audited, evidence-backed structure;
+- an accepted input means *it improved the forecast of the current model, with evidence*, not *it is the cause*: correlated substitutes can be accepted, and near-identical inputs are indistinguishable;
+- the e-values are valid under the stated assumptions; false-change control with the adaptive reference was verified empirically;
+- delays of very smooth inputs are often not discovered (information limit), though forecasts remain good;
+- the declared cost contract of the research version (mean ≤ 400, peak ≤ 1,000 operations per step) was narrowly not met.
+
+## Licence
+
+Apache-2.0. If you use it, please cite the research record (`CITATION.cff`).

lebre-0.1.0/dev/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+# dev/
+
+`make_fixtures.py` regenerates `tests/fixtures/` from the **frozen research implementation**. It needs a checkout of the research record (https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre-research) and is run from its root:
+
+    python packages/lebre/dev/make_fixtures.py
+
+The fixtures are synthetic (seeds 5301–5307) and cover acceptance of inputs and of the residual state, hierarchical splits, swaps, removal tests, target gaps, out-of-contract inputs, quarantine, daily and weekly cycles, and a structureless target. An accepted removal and a "superseded" experiment do not occur in them. The removal code path is shared with the accepted swap.

lebre-0.1.0/examples/quickstart.py

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+"""Quickstart: forecast a target driven by one delayed input, with a missing stretch of the target.
+
+The target depends on input x0 with a delay of 12 steps; x1 is irrelevant. LEBRE learns online, forecasts one step
+ahead and logs every structural change with its evidence.
+"""
+import numpy as np
+
+from lebre import Lebre
+
+rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
+T = 20000
+X = np.zeros((T, 2))
+for t in range(1, T):
+    X[t] = 0.5 * X[t - 1] + np.sqrt(0.75) * rng.standard_normal(2)
+y = 0.8 * np.r_[np.zeros(12), X[:-12, 0]] + 0.5 * rng.standard_normal(T)
+y[8000:8100] = np.nan                                   # a gap in the target
+
+model = Lebre(n_inputs=2)
+err = []
+for t in range(T):
+    f = model.predict(X[t])                             # forecast before seeing y[t]
+    model.observe(None if np.isnan(y[t]) else y[t])     # then reveal y[t] (None = missing)
+    if t >= T // 2 and not np.isnan(y[t]):
+        err.append((y[t] - f.value) ** 2)
+
+print(f"MSE on the second half: {np.mean(err):.3f} (noise variance 0.25)")
+print(f"90% interval coverage: {model.coverage:.3f}")
+print(f"active structure: {model.structure}")
+print("recovered response of x0 (lags, weight per lag):", [(seg, round(w, 3)) for seg, w in model.response("x0")])
+print(f"analytic cost: {model.cost_per_step:.0f} floating-point operations per step")
+for e in model.events:
+    if e.outcome == "accepted":
+        print(f"  t={e.t}: {e.change} {e.added} (log evidence {e.log_evidence}, {e.samples} samples)")

lebre-0.1.0/pyproject.toml

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+[build-system]
+requires = ["hatchling>=1.21"]
+build-backend = "hatchling.build"
+
+[project]
+name = "lebre"
+version = "0.1.0"
+description = "Online one-step-ahead forecasting with statistically tested structural changes, at a cost of a few hundred operations per step (implements LEBRE v0.52-r1)."
+readme = "README.md"
+license = "Apache-2.0"
+license-files = ["LICENSE"]
+requires-python = ">=3.10"
+authors = [{ name = "Silvano Lima" }]
+keywords = ["time series", "online forecasting", "anytime-valid inference", "e-process", "TinyML", "exogenous inputs"]
+classifiers = [
+  "Development Status :: 3 - Alpha",
+  "Intended Audience :: Science/Research",
+  "Programming Language :: Python :: 3",
+  "Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Information Analysis",
+  "Operating System :: OS Independent",
+]
+dependencies = ["numpy>=1.24"]
+
+[project.optional-dependencies]
+test = ["pytest>=7"]
+
+[project.urls]
+Source = "https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre"
+Issues = "https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre/issues"
+"Research record" = "https://github.com/Iquitim/lebre-research"
+"Research DOI" = "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23049103"
+
+[tool.hatch.build.targets.sdist]
+include = ["src/lebre", "tests", "examples", "README.md", "LICENSE", "CHANGELOG.md", "CITATION.cff"]
+
+[tool.hatch.build.targets.wheel]
+packages = ["src/lebre"]
+
+[tool.pytest.ini_options]
+testpaths = ["tests"]

lebre-0.1.0/src/lebre/__init__.py

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+"""LEBRE — online one-step-ahead forecasting with statistically tested structural changes, at a cost of a few hundred
+floating-point operations per step.
+
+This package implements **LEBRE v0.52-r1** (canonical configuration) exactly as specified and evaluated in the research
+record https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23049103. In the reference environment (Windows, CPython 3.11, NumPy 2.2.5) the forecasts are bit-for-bit identical to the frozen
+research code; elsewhere they agree up to floating-point rounding, with identical structural decisions in the tests.
+"""
+from .model import Event, Forecast, Lebre
+
+__version__ = "0.1.0"
+ALGORITHM_VERSION = "LEBRE v0.52-r1"
+
+__all__ = ["Lebre", "Forecast", "Event", "__version__", "ALGORITHM_VERSION"]