kpower-forecast 2026.2.0__tar.gz → 2026.2.1__tar.gz

{kpower_forecast-2026.2.0 → kpower_forecast-2026.2.1}/.github/workflows/ci.yml

@@ -28,6 +28,10 @@ jobs:
       run: |
         uv pip install --system ".[dev]"
 
+    - name: Validate Version Format
+      run: |
+        python scripts/validate_version.py
+
     - name: Lint with Ruff
       run: |
         ruff check .

{kpower_forecast-2026.2.0 → kpower_forecast-2026.2.1}/PKG-INFO

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.4
 Name: kpower-forecast
-Version: 2026.2.0
+Version: 2026.2.1
 Summary: Solar production and power consumption forecasting package.
 Author-email: KPower Team <info@kpower.example>
 License: AGPL-3.0
@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ Requires-Dist: cmdstanpy>=1.2.0
 Requires-Dist: numpy>=1.26.0
 Requires-Dist: pandas>=2.2.0
 Requires-Dist: prophet>=1.1.5
+Requires-Dist: pvlib>=0.11.0
 Requires-Dist: pydantic>=2.6.0
 Requires-Dist: pysolar>=0.8.0
 Requires-Dist: pytz>=2024.1
@@ -111,6 +112,21 @@ kp_cons = KPowerForecast(
 
 ---
 
+## 🔢 Versioning
+
+This project follows a custom **Date-Based Versioning** scheme:
+`YYYY.MM.Patch` (e.g., `2026.2.1`)
+
+- **YYYY**: Year of release.
+- **MM**: Month of release (no leading zero, 1-12).
+- **Patch**: Incremental counter for releases within the same month.
+
+### Enforcement
+- **CI Validation**: Every Pull Request is checked against `scripts/validate_version.py` to ensure adherence.
+- **Consistency**: Both `pyproject.toml` and `src/kpower_forecast/__init__.py` must match exactly.
+
+---
+
 ## 🧪 Development & Testing
 
 We use [uv](https://github.com/astral-sh/uv) for lightning-fast dependency management.

{kpower_forecast-2026.2.0 → kpower_forecast-2026.2.1}/README.md

@@ -81,6 +81,21 @@ kp_cons = KPowerForecast(
 
 ---
 
+## 🔢 Versioning
+
+This project follows a custom **Date-Based Versioning** scheme:
+`YYYY.MM.Patch` (e.g., `2026.2.1`)
+
+- **YYYY**: Year of release.
+- **MM**: Month of release (no leading zero, 1-12).
+- **Patch**: Incremental counter for releases within the same month.
+
+### Enforcement
+- **CI Validation**: Every Pull Request is checked against `scripts/validate_version.py` to ensure adherence.
+- **Consistency**: Both `pyproject.toml` and `src/kpower_forecast/__init__.py` must match exactly.
+
+---
+
 ## 🧪 Development & Testing
 
 We use [uv](https://github.com/astral-sh/uv) for lightning-fast dependency management.

{kpower_forecast-2026.2.0 → kpower_forecast-2026.2.1}/pyproject.toml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 [project]
 name = "kpower-forecast"
-version = "2026.2.0"
+version = "2026.2.1"
 description = "Solar production and power consumption forecasting package."
 readme = "README.md"
 requires-python = ">=3.13"
@@ -25,6 +25,7 @@ dependencies = [
     "requests>=2.31.0",
     "cmdstanpy>=1.2.0",
     "pytz>=2024.1",
+    "pvlib>=0.11.0",
 ]
 
 [project.optional-dependencies]

kpower_forecast-2026.2.1/scripts/validate_version.py

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+import re
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+# Regex for YYYY.MM.Patch (e.g., 2026.2.1)
+VERSION_PATTERN = r"^\d{4}\.(?:[1-9]|1[0-2])\.\d+$"
+
+def validate_version(file_path: str, pattern: str):
+    content = Path(file_path).read_text()
+    # Find version in pyproject.toml or __init__.py
+    match = re.search(pattern, content, re.MULTILINE)
+    if not match:
+        print(f"❌ Could not find version in {file_path}")
+        return False
+    
+    version = match.group(1)
+    if not re.match(VERSION_PATTERN, version):
+        print(f"❌ Invalid version format in {file_path}: '{version}'")
+        print("   Expected format: YYYY.MM.Patch (e.g., 2026.2.1)")
+        return False
+    
+    print(f"✅ Version {version} in {file_path} is valid.")
+    return True
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    success = True
+    # Check pyproject.toml
+    if not validate_version("pyproject.toml", r'^version\s*=\s*"([^"]+)"'):
+        success = False
+    
+    # Check __init__.py
+    if not validate_version("src/kpower_forecast/__init__.py", r'^__version__\s*=\s*"([^"]+)"'):
+        success = False
+        
+    if not success:
+        sys.exit(1)

{kpower_forecast-2026.2.0 → kpower_forecast-2026.2.1}/src/kpower_forecast/__init__.py

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
 from .core import KPowerForecast
 
 __all__ = ["KPowerForecast"]
-__version__ = "2026.2.0"
+__version__ = "2026.2.1"

kpower_forecast-2026.2.1/src/kpower_forecast/core.py

@@ -0,0 +1,298 @@
+import logging
+from typing import List, Literal
+
+import pandas as pd
+from prophet import Prophet
+from prophet.diagnostics import cross_validation, performance_metrics
+from pydantic import BaseModel, ConfigDict, Field, field_validator
+
+from .storage import ModelStorage
+from .utils import calculate_solar_elevation, get_clear_sky_ghi
+from .weather_client import WeatherClient
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+class PredictionInterval(BaseModel):
+    timestamp: pd.Timestamp
+    expected_kwh: float
+    lower_bound_kwh: float # P10
+    upper_bound_kwh: float # P90
+    
+    model_config = ConfigDict(arbitrary_types_allowed=True)
+
+class KPowerConfig(BaseModel):
+    model_id: str
+    latitude: float = Field(..., ge=-90, le=90)
+    longitude: float = Field(..., ge=-180, le=180)
+    storage_path: str = "./data"
+    interval_minutes: int = Field(15)
+    forecast_type: Literal["solar", "consumption"] = "solar"
+    heat_pump_mode: bool = False
+    changepoint_prior_scale: float = 0.05
+    seasonality_prior_scale: float = 10.0
+
+    @field_validator("interval_minutes")
+    @classmethod
+    def check_interval(cls, v: int) -> int:
+        if v not in (15, 60):
+            raise ValueError("interval_minutes must be 15 or 60")
+        return v
+    
+    model_config = ConfigDict(arbitrary_types_allowed=True)
+
+class KPowerForecast:
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        model_id: str,
+        latitude: float,
+        longitude: float,
+        storage_path: str = "./data",
+        interval_minutes: int = 15,
+        forecast_type: Literal["solar", "consumption"] = "solar",
+        heat_pump_mode: bool = False,
+    ):
+        self.config = KPowerConfig(
+            model_id=model_id,
+            latitude=latitude,
+            longitude=longitude,
+            storage_path=storage_path,
+            interval_minutes=interval_minutes,
+            forecast_type=forecast_type,
+            heat_pump_mode=heat_pump_mode,
+        )
+        
+        self.weather_client = WeatherClient(
+            lat=self.config.latitude, lon=self.config.longitude
+        )
+        self.storage = ModelStorage(storage_path=self.config.storage_path)
+
+    def _prepare_features(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """
+        Add physics-informed features and rolling windows.
+        """
+        df = df.copy()
+        df["ds"] = pd.to_datetime(df["ds"], utc=True)
+        
+        # 1. Physics: Clear Sky GHI
+        logger.info("Calculating physics-informed Clear Sky GHI...")
+        # Ensure index is DatetimeIndex for pvlib
+        temp_df = df.set_index("ds")
+        df["clear_sky_ghi"] = get_clear_sky_ghi(
+            self.config.latitude, self.config.longitude, temp_df.index
+        ).values
+        
+        # 2. Rolling Cloud Cover (3-hour window)
+        # 3 hours = 180 minutes. Window depends on interval_minutes.
+        window_size = 180 // self.config.interval_minutes
+        logger.info(f"Adding rolling cloud cover (window={window_size})...")
+        df["rolling_cloud_cover"] = (
+            df["cloud_cover"]
+            .rolling(window=window_size, min_periods=1)
+            .mean()
+        )
+        
+        return df
+
+    def train(self, history_df: pd.DataFrame, force: bool = False):
+        """
+        Trains the Prophet model using the provided history.
+        """
+        if not force and self.storage.load_model(self.config.model_id):
+            logger.info(
+                f"Model {self.config.model_id} already exists. "
+                "Use force=True to retrain."
+            )
+            return
+
+        df = history_df.copy()
+        if "ds" not in df.columns or "y" not in df.columns:
+            raise ValueError("history_df must contain 'ds' and 'y' columns")
+        
+        df["ds"] = pd.to_datetime(df["ds"], utc=True)
+        df = df.sort_values("ds")
+        
+        start_date = df["ds"].min().date()
+        end_date = df["ds"].max().date()
+        
+        weather_df = self.weather_client.fetch_historical(start_date, end_date)
+        weather_df = self.weather_client.resample_weather(
+            weather_df, self.config.interval_minutes
+        )
+        
+        df = pd.merge(df, weather_df, on="ds", how="left")
+        
+        weather_cols = ["temperature_2m", "cloud_cover", "shortwave_radiation"]
+        df[weather_cols] = df[weather_cols].interpolate(method="linear").bfill().ffill()
+        
+        if df[weather_cols].isnull().any().any():
+            df = df.dropna(subset=weather_cols)
+
+        # Feature Engineering
+        df = self._prepare_features(df)
+
+        # Initialize Prophet with tuned hyperparameters
+        m = Prophet(
+            changepoint_prior_scale=self.config.changepoint_prior_scale,
+            seasonality_prior_scale=self.config.seasonality_prior_scale,
+            interval_width=0.8, # Used for P10/P90 (80% interval)
+        )
+        
+        if self.config.forecast_type == "solar":
+            m.add_regressor("temperature_2m")
+            m.add_regressor("rolling_cloud_cover")
+            m.add_regressor("shortwave_radiation")
+            m.add_regressor("clear_sky_ghi")
+        elif self.config.forecast_type == "consumption":
+            if self.config.heat_pump_mode:
+                m.add_regressor("temperature_2m")
+        
+        logger.info(f"Training Prophet model for {self.config.forecast_type}...")
+        m.fit(df)
+        
+        self.storage.save_model(m, self.config.model_id)
+
+    def tune_model(self, history_df: pd.DataFrame, days: int = 30):
+        """
+        Find optimal hyperparameters using cross-validation.
+        """
+        logger.info(f"Tuning model hyperparameters using {days} days of history...")
+        
+        # We need to prepare data first as cross_validation needs the regressors
+        # This is a bit complex as we need weather data for history_df
+        # For simplicity, we assume train() logic but without fitting.
+        
+        # Prepare data (duplicated logic from train, could be refactored)
+        df = history_df.copy()
+        df["ds"] = pd.to_datetime(df["ds"], utc=True)
+        start_date = df["ds"].min().date()
+        end_date = df["ds"].max().date()
+        weather_df = self.weather_client.fetch_historical(start_date, end_date)
+        weather_df = self.weather_client.resample_weather(
+            weather_df, self.config.interval_minutes
+        )
+        df = pd.merge(df, weather_df, on="ds", how="left")
+        weather_cols = ["temperature_2m", "cloud_cover", "shortwave_radiation"]
+        df[weather_cols] = df[weather_cols].interpolate(method="linear").bfill().ffill()
+        df = self._prepare_features(df.dropna(subset=weather_cols))
+
+        param_grid = {
+            'changepoint_prior_scale': [0.001, 0.05, 0.5],
+            'seasonality_prior_scale': [0.01, 1.0, 10.0],
+        }
+
+        # Simplified tuning loop
+        best_params = {}
+        min_rmse = float('inf')
+
+        for cps in param_grid['changepoint_prior_scale']:
+            for sps in param_grid['seasonality_prior_scale']:
+                m = Prophet(changepoint_prior_scale=cps, seasonality_prior_scale=sps)
+                if self.config.forecast_type == "solar":
+                    m.add_regressor("temperature_2m")
+                    m.add_regressor("rolling_cloud_cover")
+                    m.add_regressor("shortwave_radiation")
+                    m.add_regressor("clear_sky_ghi")
+                elif (
+                    self.config.forecast_type == "consumption"
+                    and self.config.heat_pump_mode
+                ):
+                    m.add_regressor("temperature_2m")
+                
+                m.fit(df)
+                
+                # Cross-validation
+                # initial should be at least 3x horizon
+                df_cv = cross_validation(
+                    m, initial=f'{days//2} days', period='5 days', horizon='5 days'
+                )
+                df_p = performance_metrics(df_cv, rolling_window=1)
+                rmse = df_p['rmse'].values[0]
+
+                if rmse < min_rmse:
+                    min_rmse = rmse
+                    best_params = {'cps': cps, 'sps': sps}
+
+        logger.info(f"Best params found: {best_params} with RMSE {min_rmse}")
+        self.config.changepoint_prior_scale = best_params['cps']
+        self.config.seasonality_prior_scale = best_params['sps']
+
+    def predict(self, days: int = 7) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """
+        Generates forecast for the next 'days' days.
+        """
+        m = self.storage.load_model(self.config.model_id)
+        if m is None:
+            raise RuntimeError(
+                f"Model {self.config.model_id} not found. Please run train() first."
+            )
+            
+        weather_forecast = self.weather_client.fetch_forecast(days=days)
+        weather_forecast = self.weather_client.resample_weather(
+            weather_forecast, self.config.interval_minutes
+        )
+        
+        future = pd.DataFrame({"ds": weather_forecast["ds"]})
+        future = pd.merge(future, weather_forecast, on="ds", how="left")
+        
+        weather_cols = ["temperature_2m", "cloud_cover", "shortwave_radiation"]
+        future[weather_cols] = (
+            future[weather_cols].interpolate(method="linear").bfill().ffill()
+        )
+        
+        # Feature Engineering
+        future = self._prepare_features(future)
+        
+        forecast = m.predict(future)
+        
+        # Night Mask & Clipping
+        if self.config.forecast_type == "solar":
+            logger.info("Applying night mask for solar forecast...")
+            elevations = calculate_solar_elevation(
+                self.config.latitude, self.config.longitude, forecast["ds"]
+            )
+            forecast.loc[elevations < 0, ["yhat", "yhat_lower", "yhat_upper"]] = 0
+        
+        for col in ["yhat", "yhat_lower", "yhat_upper"]:
+            forecast[col] = forecast[col].clip(lower=0)
+            
+        return forecast
+
+    def get_prediction_intervals(self, days: int = 7) -> List[PredictionInterval]:
+        """
+        Returns prediction intervals for EMS.
+        """
+        forecast = self.predict(days=days)
+        
+        intervals = []
+        for _, row in forecast.iterrows():
+            intervals.append(PredictionInterval(
+                timestamp=row["ds"],
+                expected_kwh=row["yhat"],
+                lower_bound_kwh=row["yhat_lower"],
+                upper_bound_kwh=row["yhat_upper"]
+            ))
+        return intervals
+
+    def get_surplus_probability(
+        self, threshold_kwh: float, days: int = 7
+    ) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """
+        Returns probability of exceeding threshold_kwh.
+        Prophet doesn't provide direct probabilities, but we can estimate 
+        from the uncertainty interval (yhat_upper - yhat_lower) 
+        assuming normal distribution.
+        """
+        forecast = self.predict(days=days)
+        
+        # Estimate sigma from 80% interval (approx 1.28 * sigma)
+        sigma = (forecast["yhat_upper"] - forecast["yhat_lower"]) / (2 * 1.28)
+        sigma = sigma.replace(0, 1e-9) # Avoid div by zero
+        
+        from scipy.stats import norm
+        z_score = (threshold_kwh - forecast["yhat"]) / sigma
+        prob_exceed = 1 - norm.cdf(z_score)
+        
+        return pd.DataFrame({
+            "ds": forecast["ds"],
+            "surplus_prob": prob_exceed
+        })

{kpower_forecast-2026.2.0 → kpower_forecast-2026.2.1}/src/kpower_forecast/utils.py

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ from typing import List, Union
 
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
+from pvlib.location import Location
 from pysolar.solar import get_altitude
 
 
@@ -12,13 +13,13 @@ def calculate_solar_elevation(
     """
     Calculate solar elevation angles (altitude) for a list of times
     at a specific location.
-    
+
     Args:
         lat: Latitude in decimal degrees.
         lon: Longitude in decimal degrees.
-        times: List of datetime objects or pandas DatetimeIndex. 
+        times: List of datetime objects or pandas DatetimeIndex.
                Must be timezone-aware or UTC.
-               
+
     Returns:
         Numpy array of elevation angles in degrees.
     """
@@ -28,9 +29,31 @@ def calculate_solar_elevation(
         if t.tzinfo is None:
             # Assume UTC if naive, though strictly we should enforce awareness
             t = t.replace(tzinfo=datetime.timezone.utc)
-        
+
         # get_altitude returns degrees
         alt = get_altitude(lat, lon, t)
         elevations.append(alt)
-    
+
     return np.array(elevations)
+
+
+def get_clear_sky_ghi(
+    lat: float, lon: float, times: pd.DatetimeIndex
+) -> pd.Series:
+    """
+    Calculate Theoretical Clear Sky GHI (Global Horizontal Irradiance)
+    using pvlib.
+
+    Args:
+        lat: Latitude.
+        lon: Longitude.
+        times: Pandas DatetimeIndex (must be timezone aware).
+
+    Returns:
+        Pandas Series of GHI values.
+    """
+    location = Location(lat, lon)
+    # get_clearsky returns GHI, DNI, DHI. We only need GHI.
+    # Ineichen is the default model.
+    clearsky = location.get_clearsky(times)
+    return clearsky["ghi"]

{kpower_forecast-2026.2.0 → kpower_forecast-2026.2.1}/uv.lock

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 ]
 
+[[package]]
+name = "h5py"
+version = "3.15.1"
+source = { registry = "https://pypi.org/simple" }
+dependencies = [
+    { name = "numpy" },
+]
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 name = "six"
 version = "1.17.0"

kpower_forecast-2026.2.0/src/kpower_forecast/core.py

@@ -1,142 +0,0 @@
-import logging
-from typing import Literal
-
-import pandas as pd
-from prophet import Prophet
-from pydantic import BaseModel, ConfigDict, Field, field_validator
-
-from .storage import ModelStorage
-from .utils import calculate_solar_elevation
-from .weather_client import WeatherClient
-
-logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
-
-class KPowerConfig(BaseModel):
-    model_id: str
-    latitude: float = Field(..., ge=-90, le=90)
-    longitude: float = Field(..., ge=-180, le=180)
-    storage_path: str = "./data"
-    interval_minutes: int = Field(15)
-    forecast_type: Literal["solar", "consumption"] = "solar"
-    heat_pump_mode: bool = False
-
-    @field_validator("interval_minutes")
-    @classmethod
-    def check_interval(cls, v: int) -> int:
-        if v not in (15, 60):
-            raise ValueError("interval_minutes must be 15 or 60")
-        return v
-    
-    model_config = ConfigDict(arbitrary_types_allowed=True)
-
-class KPowerForecast:
-    def __init__(
-        self,
-        model_id: str,
-        latitude: float,
-        longitude: float,
-        storage_path: str = "./data",
-        interval_minutes: int = 15,
-        forecast_type: Literal["solar", "consumption"] = "solar",
-        heat_pump_mode: bool = False,
-    ):
-        self.config = KPowerConfig(
-            model_id=model_id,
-            latitude=latitude,
-            longitude=longitude,
-            storage_path=storage_path,
-            interval_minutes=interval_minutes,
-            forecast_type=forecast_type,
-            heat_pump_mode=heat_pump_mode,
-        )
-        
-        self.weather_client = WeatherClient(
-            lat=self.config.latitude, lon=self.config.longitude
-        )
-        self.storage = ModelStorage(storage_path=self.config.storage_path)
-
-    def train(self, history_df: pd.DataFrame, force: bool = False):
-        """
-        Trains the Prophet model using the provided history.
-        """
-        if not force and self.storage.load_model(self.config.model_id):
-            logger.info(
-                f"Model {self.config.model_id} already exists. "
-                "Use force=True to retrain."
-            )
-            return
-
-        df = history_df.copy()
-        if "ds" not in df.columns or "y" not in df.columns:
-            raise ValueError("history_df must contain 'ds' and 'y' columns")
-        
-        df["ds"] = pd.to_datetime(df["ds"], utc=True)
-        df = df.sort_values("ds")
-        
-        start_date = df["ds"].min().date()
-        end_date = df["ds"].max().date()
-        
-        weather_df = self.weather_client.fetch_historical(start_date, end_date)
-        weather_df = self.weather_client.resample_weather(
-            weather_df, self.config.interval_minutes
-        )
-        
-        df = pd.merge(df, weather_df, on="ds", how="left")
-        
-        weather_cols = ["temperature_2m", "cloud_cover", "shortwave_radiation"]
-        df[weather_cols] = df[weather_cols].interpolate(method="linear").bfill().ffill()
-        
-        if df[weather_cols].isnull().any().any():
-            df = df.dropna(subset=weather_cols)
-
-        m = Prophet()
-        
-        if self.config.forecast_type == "solar":
-            m.add_regressor("temperature_2m")
-            m.add_regressor("cloud_cover")
-            m.add_regressor("shortwave_radiation")
-        elif self.config.forecast_type == "consumption":
-            if self.config.heat_pump_mode:
-                m.add_regressor("temperature_2m")
-        
-        logger.info(f"Training Prophet model for {self.config.forecast_type}...")
-        m.fit(df)
-        
-        self.storage.save_model(m, self.config.model_id)
-
-    def predict(self, days: int = 7) -> pd.DataFrame:
-        """
-        Generates forecast for the next 'days' days.
-        """
-        m = self.storage.load_model(self.config.model_id)
-        if m is None:
-            raise RuntimeError(
-                f"Model {self.config.model_id} not found. Please run train() first."
-            )
-            
-        weather_forecast = self.weather_client.fetch_forecast(days=days)
-        weather_forecast = self.weather_client.resample_weather(
-            weather_forecast, self.config.interval_minutes
-        )
-        
-        future = pd.DataFrame({"ds": weather_forecast["ds"]})
-        future = pd.merge(future, weather_forecast, on="ds", how="left")
-        
-        weather_cols = ["temperature_2m", "cloud_cover", "shortwave_radiation"]
-        future[weather_cols] = (
-            future[weather_cols].interpolate(method="linear").bfill().ffill()
-        )
-        
-        forecast = m.predict(future)
-        result = forecast[["ds", "yhat"]].copy()
-        
-        if self.config.forecast_type == "solar":
-            logger.info("Applying night mask for solar forecast...")
-            elevations = calculate_solar_elevation(
-                self.config.latitude, self.config.longitude, result["ds"]
-            )
-            result.loc[elevations < 0, "yhat"] = 0
-        
-        result["yhat"] = result["yhat"].clip(lower=0)
-        
-        return result