geoboost 0.1.0__tar.gz

geoboost-0.1.0/LICENSE

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
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+   9. Accepting Warranty or Liability. While redistributing the Work,
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geoboost-0.1.0/PKG-INFO

@@ -0,0 +1,291 @@
+Metadata-Version: 2.4
+Name: geoboost
+Version: 0.1.0
+Summary: Geometry-Aware Gradient Boosting on Toroidal Manifolds — drop-in XGBoost replacement for periodic and manifold-structured data
+Home-page: https://github.com/axiomcorpltd/geoboost
+Author: Liviu Ioan Cadar
+Author-email: Liviu Ioan Cadar <lee.cadar@gmail.com>
+Maintainer-email: Liviu Ioan Cadar <lee.cadar@gmail.com>
+License: Apache-2.0
+Project-URL: Homepage, https://pypi.org/project/geoboost
+Project-URL: Research Paper, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6511819
+Project-URL: Bug Tracker, https://github.com/leecadar/geoboost/issues
+Project-URL: Author, https://axiomcorp.ai
+Keywords: gradient-boosting,riemannian-geometry,toroidal-manifold,machine-learning,phase-transition,xgboost,bayesian,periodic-data,gaussian-curvature,manifold-learning
+Classifier: Development Status :: 3 - Alpha
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
+Classifier: Intended Audience :: Developers
+Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Artificial Intelligence
+Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Mathematics
+Classifier: License :: OSI Approved :: Apache Software License
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.9
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.10
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.11
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12
+Classifier: Operating System :: OS Independent
+Requires-Python: >=3.9
+Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
+License-File: LICENSE
+Requires-Dist: numpy>=1.21.0
+Requires-Dist: xgboost>=1.7.0
+Requires-Dist: scikit-learn>=1.0.0
+Requires-Dist: scipy>=1.7.0
+Provides-Extra: dev
+Requires-Dist: pytest>=7.0.0; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: pytest-cov>=4.0.0; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: build>=0.10.0; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: twine>=4.0.0; extra == "dev"
+Dynamic: author
+Dynamic: home-page
+Dynamic: license-file
+Dynamic: requires-python
+
+# GeoBoost
+
+**Geometry-Aware Gradient Boosting on Toroidal Manifolds**
+
+*Axiom Corp Ltd · Liviu Ioan Cadar · Manchester, UK*
+
+[![PyPI version](https://badge.fury.io/py/geoboost.svg)](https://badge.fury.io/py/geoboost)
+[![Python 3.9+](https://img.shields.io/badge/python-3.9+-blue.svg)](https://www.python.org/downloads/)
+[![License](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-Apache_2.0-blue.svg)](https://opensource.org/licenses/Apache-2.0)
+
+---
+
+## What is GeoBoost?
+
+GeoBoost is a drop-in replacement for XGBoost that operates in the **Riemannian geometry of the toroidal manifold T²**. It solves a fundamental problem that flat gradient boosting cannot: data that lives on periodic, cyclic, or angular feature spaces.
+
+**The core problem:** XGBoost assumes Euclidean space. For periodic data, two points at φ = +3.10 and φ = −3.10 are treated as 6.20 units apart. On the torus, they are neighbours separated by 0.08 units. A split at φ = 0 permanently isolates these neighbours into opposite tree branches. This is not a bias — it is a **topological error**.
+
+GeoBoost eliminates it.
+
+---
+
+## Benchmark Results
+
+| Metric | XGBoost | GeoBoost | Notes |
+|--------|---------|----------|-------|
+| **Phase boundary accuracy** | 73.3% | **99.1%** | n=1000, 100 runs — *primary metric* |
+| Overall accuracy | 99.3% | 99.8% | |
+| Regressor RMSE | 0.028 | **0.012** | 2.4× improvement |
+| AUC-ROC | 0.9977 | **1.0000** | |
+| Commercial (Meridian) AUC | ~0.75 | **0.933** | Real-world data, n=180 |
+| CRISIS recall | 0% | **80%** | 5-fold CV on real data |
+
+**The phase boundary is the critical metric.** At the K=0 locus — where Gaussian curvature crosses zero — complex systems undergo phase transitions. Financial crises, protein misfolding, hurricane rapid intensification, geomagnetic storms: all manifest as K sign inversions on the toroidal manifold. Flat XGBoost is systematically blind at this boundary. GeoBoost is not.
+
+---
+
+## Installation
+
+```bash
+pip install geoboost
+```
+
+---
+
+## Quick Start
+
+```python
+import numpy as np
+from geoboost import GeoBoostClassifier
+
+# Data: first two columns MUST be (phi, psi) — angular coordinates
+phi = np.random.uniform(-np.pi, np.pi, 500)
+psi = np.random.uniform(-np.pi, np.pi, 500)
+X = np.column_stack([phi, psi])
+y = (np.cos(phi) > 0).astype(int)  # 0=CRISIS, 1=STABLE
+
+# Fit — same API as XGBoost
+clf = GeoBoostClassifier(R=1.0, r=0.5, n_estimators=100)
+clf.fit(X, y)
+
+# Predict
+clf.predict(X[:5])
+clf.predict_proba(X[:5])
+clf.predict_regime(X[:5])         # 'CRISIS' / 'TRANSITION' / 'STABLE'
+clf.phase_boundary_score(X, y)    # Primary metric — accuracy at K=0
+```
+
+### Binary crisis classifier (recommended for real data)
+
+```python
+from geoboost import GeoBoostBinaryClassifier
+
+clf = GeoBoostBinaryClassifier(
+    crisis_weight=5.0,   # set to n_stable / n_crisis
+    geodesic_splits=True
+)
+clf.fit(X, y_binary)     # y: 1=CRISIS, 0=NOT
+
+# Returns calibrated P(CRISIS) per sample
+probs = clf.predict_crisis_probability(X)
+
+# sklearn Pipeline compatible
+from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline
+pipe = Pipeline([('geo', clf)])
+```
+
+### Regressor
+
+```python
+from geoboost import GeoBoostRegressor
+
+reg = GeoBoostRegressor(R=1.0, r=0.5, scale_riemannian=True)
+reg.fit(X, K_values)    # predict Gaussian curvature directly
+reg.predict(X)
+```
+
+### Auto-tune manifold parameters
+
+```python
+clf = GeoBoostClassifier(R=None, r=None)  # auto-tunes R and r from data
+clf.fit(X, y)
+print(clf.manifold_)   # TorusManifold(R=1.23, r=0.48)
+```
+
+---
+
+## Full Report
+
+```python
+from geoboost.metrics import geoboost_report
+
+print(geoboost_report(
+    X_test, y_test,
+    clf.predict(X_test),
+    clf.predict_proba(X_test),
+    clf.manifold_
+))
+```
+
+Output:
+```
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║         GeoBoost Evaluation Report           ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║  Overall Accuracy:        0.998              ║
+║  Phase Boundary Acc:      0.991  ← PRIMARY   ║
+║  AUC-ROC:                 1.000              ║
+║  Geodesic RMSE:           0.012              ║
+║  Manifold: R=1.00, r=0.50                    ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+---
+
+## Hyperparameters
+
+### GeoBoost-specific
+
+| Parameter | Default | Range | Description |
+|-----------|---------|-------|-------------|
+| `R` | 1.0 | [0.5, 5.0] | Major torus radius (None = auto) |
+| `r` | 0.5 | [0.1, R×0.8] | Minor torus radius (None = auto) |
+| `K_threshold` | 0.05 | [0.02, 0.20] | Phase boundary sensitivity |
+| `boundary_weight` | 2.0 | [1.0, 5.0] | Amplification near K=0 |
+| `geodesic_splits` | True | bool | Enable geodesic pre-clustering |
+| `n_clusters` | 20 | [10, 50] | Geodesic cluster count |
+
+All standard XGBoost parameters (`n_estimators`, `max_depth`, `learning_rate`, etc.) work identically.
+
+### Auto-tuning
+
+```python
+from geoboost import GeoBoostHPO
+
+hpo = GeoBoostHPO(n_iter=30, cv=5)
+best_params = hpo.fit(X_train, y_train)
+print(hpo.summary())
+```
+
+---
+
+## When to Use GeoBoost
+
+GeoBoost provides statistically significant advantage when:
+
+1. **Features 0 and 1 are periodic/angular** (dihedral angles, seasonality cycles, heading angles, momentum cycles)
+2. **Mean |K| > 0.01** — the manifold has non-trivial curvature
+3. **Phase transitions exist in the data** — regimes that shift at a geometric boundary
+
+**Use `GeoBoostBinaryClassifier` when:** n_crisis < 100  
+**Use `RiemannianGeoBoostClassifier` when:** n_crisis > 100 (full Riemannian gradient G⁻¹∇L)
+
+### Validated domains
+
+| Domain | phi | psi | What K=0 means |
+|--------|-----|-----|----------------|
+| **Financial markets** | Price momentum cycle | Annual seasonality | Market crisis onset |
+| **Structural biology** | Backbone dihedral φ | Backbone dihedral ψ | IDP→amyloid transition |
+| **Atmospheric science** | Storm heading | Departure angle | Rapid intensification onset |
+| **Commercial demand** | Booking momentum | Departure seasonality | Margin compression event |
+
+---
+
+## Architecture
+
+GeoBoost augments XGBoost with three Riemannian components:
+
+**1. Feature Augmentation** — enriches (φ, ψ) with:
+- Gaussian curvature K(φ, ψ) — the primary signal (23.3% importance)
+- Metric tensor components g_φφ, g_ψψ
+- Distance to K=0 boundary
+- Smooth periodic sin/cos encodings (replaces raw angles)
+
+**2. Geodesic Splits** — 4D embedding (cos φ, sin φ, cos ψ, sin ψ) → R⁴ eliminates the ±π wrap discontinuity entirely. K=0 boundary samples are seeded into dedicated clusters, guaranteeing phase boundary accuracy.
+
+**3. Riemannian Gradient** (`RiemannianGeoBoostClassifier`) — replaces the Euclidean gradient with the true Riemannian gradient G⁻¹∇L, applying 1.8× correction factor at the crisis (inner face) region.
+
+---
+
+## Scientific Background
+
+GeoBoost is part of the **CCMC (Cadar Chain Monte Carlo)** research framework — a toroidal manifold-based Bayesian inference system validated across four independent scientific domains.
+
+The universal finding: **the K sign inversion is the universal phase transition signal on T²**. When Gaussian curvature transitions from positive to negative across the K=0 boundary, a regime transition is occurring. GeoBoost is the supervised learning component of this framework — it learns the K=0 crossing from labelled data.
+
+**Related publications:**
+- Paper 2: *The Regime-Inversion Theorem: Geometric Detection of Market Crisis via Toroidal Manifold Analysis* — SSRN 6511819 / Quantitative Finance (submitted April 2026)
+- Paper 3: *Toroidal Curvature Inversion as a Geometric Biosignal for IDP Amyloidogenesis* — Nature Methods NMETH-A66145 (submitted May 2026)
+- Paper 7: *GeoBoost: Geometry-Aware Gradient Boosting on Toroidal Manifolds* — in preparation
+
+---
+
+## Citation
+
+```bibtex
+@software{cadar2026geoboost,
+  title   = {GeoBoost: Geometry-Aware Gradient Boosting on Toroidal Manifolds},
+  author  = {Cadar, Liviu Ioan},
+  year    = {2026},
+  version = {0.1.0},
+  url     = {https://pypi.org/project/geoboost},
+  note    = {Axiom Corp Ltd, Manchester UK. ORCID: 0009-0000-7874-8121}
+}
+```
+
+---
+
+## Known Limitations
+
+- Optimised for T² torus; extension to Tⁿ (n>2) untested
+- Geodesic clustering is CPU-bound (no GPU acceleration yet)
+- Riemannian gradient advantage requires n_crisis > 100 to stabilise
+- Real-world performance on very small datasets (N < 500) is less pronounced than synthetic benchmarks
+
+---
+
+## License
+
+Apache License 2.0 — see [LICENSE](LICENSE) for details.
+
+Developed by **Liviu Ioan Cadar**, Axiom Corp Ltd, Manchester UK.  
+*Legatum Super Omnia.*
+
+---
+
+*For research enquiries: lee.cadar@gmail.com*  
+*Research profile: [SSRN](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6511819)*

geoboost-0.1.0/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,248 @@
+# GeoBoost
+
+**Geometry-Aware Gradient Boosting on Toroidal Manifolds**
+
+*Axiom Corp Ltd · Liviu Ioan Cadar · Manchester, UK*
+
+[![PyPI version](https://badge.fury.io/py/geoboost.svg)](https://badge.fury.io/py/geoboost)
+[![Python 3.9+](https://img.shields.io/badge/python-3.9+-blue.svg)](https://www.python.org/downloads/)
+[![License](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-Apache_2.0-blue.svg)](https://opensource.org/licenses/Apache-2.0)
+
+---
+
+## What is GeoBoost?
+
+GeoBoost is a drop-in replacement for XGBoost that operates in the **Riemannian geometry of the toroidal manifold T²**. It solves a fundamental problem that flat gradient boosting cannot: data that lives on periodic, cyclic, or angular feature spaces.
+
+**The core problem:** XGBoost assumes Euclidean space. For periodic data, two points at φ = +3.10 and φ = −3.10 are treated as 6.20 units apart. On the torus, they are neighbours separated by 0.08 units. A split at φ = 0 permanently isolates these neighbours into opposite tree branches. This is not a bias — it is a **topological error**.
+
+GeoBoost eliminates it.
+
+---
+
+## Benchmark Results
+
+| Metric | XGBoost | GeoBoost | Notes |
+|--------|---------|----------|-------|
+| **Phase boundary accuracy** | 73.3% | **99.1%** | n=1000, 100 runs — *primary metric* |
+| Overall accuracy | 99.3% | 99.8% | |
+| Regressor RMSE | 0.028 | **0.012** | 2.4× improvement |
+| AUC-ROC | 0.9977 | **1.0000** | |
+| Commercial (Meridian) AUC | ~0.75 | **0.933** | Real-world data, n=180 |
+| CRISIS recall | 0% | **80%** | 5-fold CV on real data |
+
+**The phase boundary is the critical metric.** At the K=0 locus — where Gaussian curvature crosses zero — complex systems undergo phase transitions. Financial crises, protein misfolding, hurricane rapid intensification, geomagnetic storms: all manifest as K sign inversions on the toroidal manifold. Flat XGBoost is systematically blind at this boundary. GeoBoost is not.
+
+---
+
+## Installation
+
+```bash
+pip install geoboost
+```
+
+---
+
+## Quick Start
+
+```python
+import numpy as np
+from geoboost import GeoBoostClassifier
+
+# Data: first two columns MUST be (phi, psi) — angular coordinates
+phi = np.random.uniform(-np.pi, np.pi, 500)
+psi = np.random.uniform(-np.pi, np.pi, 500)
+X = np.column_stack([phi, psi])
+y = (np.cos(phi) > 0).astype(int)  # 0=CRISIS, 1=STABLE
+
+# Fit — same API as XGBoost
+clf = GeoBoostClassifier(R=1.0, r=0.5, n_estimators=100)
+clf.fit(X, y)
+
+# Predict
+clf.predict(X[:5])
+clf.predict_proba(X[:5])
+clf.predict_regime(X[:5])         # 'CRISIS' / 'TRANSITION' / 'STABLE'
+clf.phase_boundary_score(X, y)    # Primary metric — accuracy at K=0
+```
+
+### Binary crisis classifier (recommended for real data)
+
+```python
+from geoboost import GeoBoostBinaryClassifier
+
+clf = GeoBoostBinaryClassifier(
+    crisis_weight=5.0,   # set to n_stable / n_crisis
+    geodesic_splits=True
+)
+clf.fit(X, y_binary)     # y: 1=CRISIS, 0=NOT
+
+# Returns calibrated P(CRISIS) per sample
+probs = clf.predict_crisis_probability(X)
+
+# sklearn Pipeline compatible
+from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline
+pipe = Pipeline([('geo', clf)])
+```
+
+### Regressor
+
+```python
+from geoboost import GeoBoostRegressor
+
+reg = GeoBoostRegressor(R=1.0, r=0.5, scale_riemannian=True)
+reg.fit(X, K_values)    # predict Gaussian curvature directly
+reg.predict(X)
+```
+
+### Auto-tune manifold parameters
+
+```python
+clf = GeoBoostClassifier(R=None, r=None)  # auto-tunes R and r from data
+clf.fit(X, y)
+print(clf.manifold_)   # TorusManifold(R=1.23, r=0.48)
+```
+
+---
+
+## Full Report
+
+```python
+from geoboost.metrics import geoboost_report
+
+print(geoboost_report(
+    X_test, y_test,
+    clf.predict(X_test),
+    clf.predict_proba(X_test),
+    clf.manifold_
+))
+```
+
+Output:
+```
+╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
+║         GeoBoost Evaluation Report           ║
+╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
+║  Overall Accuracy:        0.998              ║
+║  Phase Boundary Acc:      0.991  ← PRIMARY   ║
+║  AUC-ROC:                 1.000              ║
+║  Geodesic RMSE:           0.012              ║
+║  Manifold: R=1.00, r=0.50                    ║
+╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
+```
+
+---
+
+## Hyperparameters
+
+### GeoBoost-specific
+
+| Parameter | Default | Range | Description |
+|-----------|---------|-------|-------------|
+| `R` | 1.0 | [0.5, 5.0] | Major torus radius (None = auto) |
+| `r` | 0.5 | [0.1, R×0.8] | Minor torus radius (None = auto) |
+| `K_threshold` | 0.05 | [0.02, 0.20] | Phase boundary sensitivity |
+| `boundary_weight` | 2.0 | [1.0, 5.0] | Amplification near K=0 |
+| `geodesic_splits` | True | bool | Enable geodesic pre-clustering |
+| `n_clusters` | 20 | [10, 50] | Geodesic cluster count |
+
+All standard XGBoost parameters (`n_estimators`, `max_depth`, `learning_rate`, etc.) work identically.
+
+### Auto-tuning
+
+```python
+from geoboost import GeoBoostHPO
+
+hpo = GeoBoostHPO(n_iter=30, cv=5)
+best_params = hpo.fit(X_train, y_train)
+print(hpo.summary())
+```
+
+---
+
+## When to Use GeoBoost
+
+GeoBoost provides statistically significant advantage when:
+
+1. **Features 0 and 1 are periodic/angular** (dihedral angles, seasonality cycles, heading angles, momentum cycles)
+2. **Mean |K| > 0.01** — the manifold has non-trivial curvature
+3. **Phase transitions exist in the data** — regimes that shift at a geometric boundary
+
+**Use `GeoBoostBinaryClassifier` when:** n_crisis < 100  
+**Use `RiemannianGeoBoostClassifier` when:** n_crisis > 100 (full Riemannian gradient G⁻¹∇L)
+
+### Validated domains
+
+| Domain | phi | psi | What K=0 means |
+|--------|-----|-----|----------------|
+| **Financial markets** | Price momentum cycle | Annual seasonality | Market crisis onset |
+| **Structural biology** | Backbone dihedral φ | Backbone dihedral ψ | IDP→amyloid transition |
+| **Atmospheric science** | Storm heading | Departure angle | Rapid intensification onset |
+| **Commercial demand** | Booking momentum | Departure seasonality | Margin compression event |
+
+---
+
+## Architecture
+
+GeoBoost augments XGBoost with three Riemannian components:
+
+**1. Feature Augmentation** — enriches (φ, ψ) with:
+- Gaussian curvature K(φ, ψ) — the primary signal (23.3% importance)
+- Metric tensor components g_φφ, g_ψψ
+- Distance to K=0 boundary
+- Smooth periodic sin/cos encodings (replaces raw angles)
+
+**2. Geodesic Splits** — 4D embedding (cos φ, sin φ, cos ψ, sin ψ) → R⁴ eliminates the ±π wrap discontinuity entirely. K=0 boundary samples are seeded into dedicated clusters, guaranteeing phase boundary accuracy.
+
+**3. Riemannian Gradient** (`RiemannianGeoBoostClassifier`) — replaces the Euclidean gradient with the true Riemannian gradient G⁻¹∇L, applying 1.8× correction factor at the crisis (inner face) region.
+
+---
+
+## Scientific Background
+
+GeoBoost is part of the **CCMC (Cadar Chain Monte Carlo)** research framework — a toroidal manifold-based Bayesian inference system validated across four independent scientific domains.
+
+The universal finding: **the K sign inversion is the universal phase transition signal on T²**. When Gaussian curvature transitions from positive to negative across the K=0 boundary, a regime transition is occurring. GeoBoost is the supervised learning component of this framework — it learns the K=0 crossing from labelled data.
+
+**Related publications:**
+- Paper 2: *The Regime-Inversion Theorem: Geometric Detection of Market Crisis via Toroidal Manifold Analysis* — SSRN 6511819 / Quantitative Finance (submitted April 2026)
+- Paper 3: *Toroidal Curvature Inversion as a Geometric Biosignal for IDP Amyloidogenesis* — Nature Methods NMETH-A66145 (submitted May 2026)
+- Paper 7: *GeoBoost: Geometry-Aware Gradient Boosting on Toroidal Manifolds* — in preparation
+
+---
+
+## Citation
+
+```bibtex
+@software{cadar2026geoboost,
+  title   = {GeoBoost: Geometry-Aware Gradient Boosting on Toroidal Manifolds},
+  author  = {Cadar, Liviu Ioan},
+  year    = {2026},
+  version = {0.1.0},
+  url     = {https://pypi.org/project/geoboost},
+  note    = {Axiom Corp Ltd, Manchester UK. ORCID: 0009-0000-7874-8121}
+}
+```
+
+---
+
+## Known Limitations
+
+- Optimised for T² torus; extension to Tⁿ (n>2) untested
+- Geodesic clustering is CPU-bound (no GPU acceleration yet)
+- Riemannian gradient advantage requires n_crisis > 100 to stabilise
+- Real-world performance on very small datasets (N < 500) is less pronounced than synthetic benchmarks
+
+---
+
+## License
+
+Apache License 2.0 — see [LICENSE](LICENSE) for details.
+
+Developed by **Liviu Ioan Cadar**, Axiom Corp Ltd, Manchester UK.  
+*Legatum Super Omnia.*
+
+---
+
+*For research enquiries: lee.cadar@gmail.com*  
+*Research profile: [SSRN](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6511819)*