genformer 0.1.0__tar.gz

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+ MIT License
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+
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+ Copyright (c) 2026 Tanujit Chakraborty and Authors
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+
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+ Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
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+ of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
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+ in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
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+ to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
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+ copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
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+ furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
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+
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+ The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
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+ copies or substantial portions of the Software.
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+
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+ THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
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+ IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
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+ FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
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+ AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
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+ LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
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+ OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
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+ SOFTWARE.
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+ Metadata-Version: 2.4
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+ Name: genformer
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+ Version: 0.1.0
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+ Summary: Deep Generative Transformers for Probabilistic Time Series and Spatiotemporal Forecasting
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+ Author: Rahul Goswami, Donia Besher, Rajdeep Pathak, Madhurima Panja, Tanujit Chakraborty
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+ License: MIT
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+ Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/yuvrajiro/Genformer
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+ Project-URL: Documentation, https://github.com/yuvrajiro/Genformer#readme
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+ Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/yuvrajiro/Genformer
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+ Project-URL: Issues, https://github.com/yuvrajiro/Genformer/issues
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+ Keywords: time series,forecasting,probabilistic forecasting,spatiotemporal,transformer,engression,deep learning,pytorch,uncertainty quantification
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+ Classifier: Development Status :: 4 - Beta
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+ Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
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+ Classifier: License :: OSI Approved :: MIT License
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+ Classifier: Operating System :: OS Independent
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+ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
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+ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.10
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+ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.11
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+ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12
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+ Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Artificial Intelligence
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+ Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Mathematics
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+ Requires-Python: >=3.10
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+ Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
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+ License-File: LICENSE
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+ Requires-Dist: torch>=2.0.0
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+ Requires-Dist: darts>=0.26.0
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+ Requires-Dist: numpy>=1.24.0
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+ Requires-Dist: pandas>=2.0.0
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+ Requires-Dist: lightning>=2.0.0
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+ Requires-Dist: gluonts>=0.14.0
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+ Provides-Extra: docs
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+ Requires-Dist: sphinx>=7.0.0; extra == "docs"
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+ Requires-Dist: pydata-sphinx-theme>=0.15; extra == "docs"
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+ Requires-Dist: sphinx-design>=0.5; extra == "docs"
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+ Requires-Dist: sphinx-copybutton>=0.5; extra == "docs"
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+ Requires-Dist: nbsphinx; extra == "docs"
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+ Requires-Dist: ipython; extra == "docs"
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+ Requires-Dist: ipykernel; extra == "docs"
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+ Dynamic: license-file
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+
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+ <div align="center">
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+ <img src="image.png" alt="Enformer Logo" width="600" />
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+
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+ # 🚀 Genformer: Deep Generative Transformers
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+ **For Probabilistic Time Series and Spatiotemporal Forecasting** 📈✨
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+
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+ [![PyPI](https://img.shields.io/pypi/v/genformer?logo=pypi&logoColor=white)](https://pypi.org/project/genformer/)
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+ [![Python](https://img.shields.io/badge/Python-3.10%2B-blue?logo=python&logoColor=white)](https://python.org)
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+ [![PyTorch](https://img.shields.io/badge/PyTorch-2.0%2B-ee4c2c?logo=pytorch&logoColor=white)](https://pytorch.org)
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+ [![Docs](https://img.shields.io/badge/docs-online-6d28d9)](https://yuvrajiro.github.io/Genformer/)
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+ [![License](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-green.svg)](LICENSE)
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+ </div>
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## 🌟 Introduction
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+
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+ Welcome to **Genformer**! 🎉 This is the official Python package for the paper:
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+ > *"Deep Generative Transformers for Probabilistic Time Series and Spatiotemporal Forecasting"* 📝
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+
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+ Time series forecasting is hard, especially when dealing with uncertainty. **Genformer** brings the power of **Transformers** 🤖 together with the **Engression Paradigm** 🎲 (distributional regression) to give you:
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+ * ✨ **Robust multivariate trajectories** instead of boring point predictions!
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+ * ⚡ **Extremely lightweight** probabilistic capabilities with constant-factor overhead.
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+ * 🌍 **Spatiotemporal support** via Graph-Enformer (GEnformer) for when your data has geographical/spatial relationships.
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## 🛠️ Installation
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+
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+ Get up and running in seconds! 🏃‍♂️💨
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+
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+ ```bash
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+ pip install genformer
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+ ```
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+
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+ Or install the latest development version from source:
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+
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+ ```bash
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+ git clone https://github.com/yuvrajiro/Genformer.git
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+ cd Enformer
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+ pip install -e .
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+ ```
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## 💡 Quick Start
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+
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+ Generating probabilistic forecasts is as easy as pie 🥧:
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+
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+ ```python
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+ import pandas as pd
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+ from darts import TimeSeries
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+ from genformer.models import Enformer
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+
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+ # 1. Load your TimeSeries data 📊
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+ series = TimeSeries.from_dataframe(pd.read_csv("your_data.csv"))
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+
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+ # 2. Initialize the awesome Enformer! 🚀
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+ model = Enformer(
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+ input_chunk_length=24,
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+ output_chunk_length=12,
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+ num_samples_engression=10, # Number of ensemble samples
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+ n_epochs=30
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+ )
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+
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+ # 3. Train & Predict 🔥
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+ model.fit(series)
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+ prediction = model.predict(n=12, num_samples=50)
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+
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+ # 4. Plot a beautiful probabilistic forecast 🌈
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+ prediction.plot(low_quantile=0.05, high_quantile=0.95)
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+ ```
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## 🏗️ Architecture
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+
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+ ### 🔮 Enformer (Temporal)
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+ Injects pre-additive stochastic noise $\epsilon \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma^2 \mathbf{I})$ into the batch-expanded inputs, optimizing the strictly proper **Energy Score Loss**.
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+
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+ ### 🌐 Graph-Enformer (Spatiotemporal)
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+ Extends Enformer by passing the spatial inputs through a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to capture intricate geographical topologies before processing temporal dependencies! 📍🗺️
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## 📚 Documentation & Examples
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+
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+ 📖 **Read the full documentation online: [yuvrajiro.github.io/Genformer](https://yuvrajiro.github.io/Genformer/)**
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+
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+ Extensive documentation is built using Sphinx and `pydata-sphinx-theme`! To build the docs locally:
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+ ```bash
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+ cd docs
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+ make html
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+ # Then open _build/html/index.html in your browser! 🌐
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+ ```
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+ Check out the `docs/examples/` directory for fully runnable Jupyter Notebooks demonstrating both temporal and spatiotemporal forecasting! 🚀
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## 📜 Citation & Special Thanks
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+
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+ If you find this work useful in your research, please cite our paper:
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+
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+ ```bibtex
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+ @article{pathak2026deep,
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+ title={Deep Generative Transformers for Probabilistic Time Series and Spatiotemporal Forecasting},
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+ author={Pathak, Rajdeep and Goswami, Rahul and Panja, Madhurima and Ghosh, Palash and Chakraborty, Tanujit},
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+ journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:260307108},
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+ year={2026}
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+ }
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+ ```
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+
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+ 💖 **Special Thanks:** We would like to extend a very special thanks to **Donia Besher** for her invaluable contributions and support! 🙌
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ <div align="center">
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+ <i>Made with ❤️ by the Genformer Team</i>
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+ </div>
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+ <div align="center">
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+ <img src="image.png" alt="Enformer Logo" width="600" />
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+
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+ # 🚀 Genformer: Deep Generative Transformers
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+ **For Probabilistic Time Series and Spatiotemporal Forecasting** 📈✨
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+
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+ [![PyPI](https://img.shields.io/pypi/v/genformer?logo=pypi&logoColor=white)](https://pypi.org/project/genformer/)
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+ [![Python](https://img.shields.io/badge/Python-3.10%2B-blue?logo=python&logoColor=white)](https://python.org)
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+ [![PyTorch](https://img.shields.io/badge/PyTorch-2.0%2B-ee4c2c?logo=pytorch&logoColor=white)](https://pytorch.org)
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+ [![Docs](https://img.shields.io/badge/docs-online-6d28d9)](https://yuvrajiro.github.io/Genformer/)
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+ [![License](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-green.svg)](LICENSE)
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+ </div>
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## 🌟 Introduction
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+
18
+ Welcome to **Genformer**! 🎉 This is the official Python package for the paper:
19
+ > *"Deep Generative Transformers for Probabilistic Time Series and Spatiotemporal Forecasting"* 📝
20
+
21
+ Time series forecasting is hard, especially when dealing with uncertainty. **Genformer** brings the power of **Transformers** 🤖 together with the **Engression Paradigm** 🎲 (distributional regression) to give you:
22
+ * ✨ **Robust multivariate trajectories** instead of boring point predictions!
23
+ * ⚡ **Extremely lightweight** probabilistic capabilities with constant-factor overhead.
24
+ * 🌍 **Spatiotemporal support** via Graph-Enformer (GEnformer) for when your data has geographical/spatial relationships.
25
+
26
+ ---
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+
28
+ ## 🛠️ Installation
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+
30
+ Get up and running in seconds! 🏃‍♂️💨
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+
32
+ ```bash
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+ pip install genformer
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+ ```
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+
36
+ Or install the latest development version from source:
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+
38
+ ```bash
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+ git clone https://github.com/yuvrajiro/Genformer.git
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+ cd Enformer
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+ pip install -e .
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+ ```
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## 💡 Quick Start
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+
48
+ Generating probabilistic forecasts is as easy as pie 🥧:
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+
50
+ ```python
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+ import pandas as pd
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+ from darts import TimeSeries
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+ from genformer.models import Enformer
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+
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+ # 1. Load your TimeSeries data 📊
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+ series = TimeSeries.from_dataframe(pd.read_csv("your_data.csv"))
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+
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+ # 2. Initialize the awesome Enformer! 🚀
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+ model = Enformer(
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+ input_chunk_length=24,
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+ output_chunk_length=12,
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+ num_samples_engression=10, # Number of ensemble samples
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+ n_epochs=30
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+ )
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+
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+ # 3. Train & Predict 🔥
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+ model.fit(series)
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+ prediction = model.predict(n=12, num_samples=50)
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+
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+ # 4. Plot a beautiful probabilistic forecast 🌈
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+ prediction.plot(low_quantile=0.05, high_quantile=0.95)
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+ ```
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+
74
+ ---
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+
76
+ ## 🏗️ Architecture
77
+
78
+ ### 🔮 Enformer (Temporal)
79
+ Injects pre-additive stochastic noise $\epsilon \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma^2 \mathbf{I})$ into the batch-expanded inputs, optimizing the strictly proper **Energy Score Loss**.
80
+
81
+ ### 🌐 Graph-Enformer (Spatiotemporal)
82
+ Extends Enformer by passing the spatial inputs through a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to capture intricate geographical topologies before processing temporal dependencies! 📍🗺️
83
+
84
+ ---
85
+
86
+ ## 📚 Documentation & Examples
87
+
88
+ 📖 **Read the full documentation online: [yuvrajiro.github.io/Genformer](https://yuvrajiro.github.io/Genformer/)**
89
+
90
+ Extensive documentation is built using Sphinx and `pydata-sphinx-theme`! To build the docs locally:
91
+ ```bash
92
+ cd docs
93
+ make html
94
+ # Then open _build/html/index.html in your browser! 🌐
95
+ ```
96
+ Check out the `docs/examples/` directory for fully runnable Jupyter Notebooks demonstrating both temporal and spatiotemporal forecasting! 🚀
97
+
98
+ ---
99
+
100
+ ## 📜 Citation & Special Thanks
101
+
102
+ If you find this work useful in your research, please cite our paper:
103
+
104
+ ```bibtex
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+ @article{pathak2026deep,
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+ title={Deep Generative Transformers for Probabilistic Time Series and Spatiotemporal Forecasting},
107
+ author={Pathak, Rajdeep and Goswami, Rahul and Panja, Madhurima and Ghosh, Palash and Chakraborty, Tanujit},
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+ journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:260307108},
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+ year={2026}
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+ }
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+ ```
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+
113
+ 💖 **Special Thanks:** We would like to extend a very special thanks to **Donia Besher** for her invaluable contributions and support! 🙌
114
+
115
+ ---
116
+
117
+ <div align="center">
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+ <i>Made with ❤️ by the Genformer Team</i>
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+ </div>
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+ from genformer.models import Enformer, GEnformer
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+ from genformer.noise import GaussianNoise, UniformNoise
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+
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+ __all__ = [
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+ "Enformer",
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+ "GEnformer",
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+ "GaussianNoise",
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+ "UniformNoise",
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+ ]
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+ import numpy as np
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+ import pandas as pd
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+ from typing import Tuple, Optional, List
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+ from darts import TimeSeries, concatenate
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+ from gluonts.dataset.repository.datasets import get_dataset
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+ from gluonts.dataset.multivariate_grouper import MultivariateGrouper
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+ from darts.dataprocessing.transformers import Scaler
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+ from pandas.tseries.frequencies import to_offset
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+ from gluonts.time_feature import norm_freq_str
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+
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+ def gluonts_item_to_darts_mv(item, freq: str) -> TimeSeries:
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+ start = item["start"].to_timestamp() if hasattr(item["start"], "to_timestamp") else pd.Timestamp(item["start"])
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+ target = np.asarray(item["target"])
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+ if target.ndim != 2:
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+ raise ValueError(f"Expected multivariate target with ndim=2, got shape {target.shape}")
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+
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+ values = target.T
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+ times = pd.date_range(start=start, periods=values.shape[0], freq=freq)
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+ cols = [f"dim_{i}" for i in range(values.shape[1])]
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+
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+ return TimeSeries.from_times_and_values(times, values, columns=cols)
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+
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+ def lag_covs_from_scaled_target(ts_sc: TimeSeries, lags=(1,24,168)) -> TimeSeries:
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+ shifted = []
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+ for L in lags:
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+ s = ts_sc.shift(L).with_columns_renamed(
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+ ts_sc.components, [f"{c}_lag{L}" for c in ts_sc.components]
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+ )
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+ shifted.append(s)
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+
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+ common = shifted[0]
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+ for s in shifted[1:]:
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+ common = common.slice_intersect(s)
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+ shifted = [s.slice_intersect(common) for s in shifted]
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+ return concatenate(shifted, axis=1)
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+
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+ def fourier_from_index_min(idx) -> TimeSeries:
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+ minute = idx.minute.to_numpy()
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+ hour = idx.hour.to_numpy()
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+ dow = idx.dayofweek.to_numpy()
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+
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+ X = np.vstack([
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+ np.sin(2 * np.pi * minute / 60.0),
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+ np.cos(2 * np.pi * minute / 60.0),
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+ np.sin(2 * np.pi * hour / 24.0),
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+ np.cos(2 * np.pi * hour / 24.0),
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+ np.sin(2 * np.pi * dow / 7.0),
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+ np.cos(2 * np.pi * dow / 7.0),
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+ ]).T
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+
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+ return TimeSeries.from_times_and_values(
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+ idx,
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+ X,
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+ columns=["min_sin", "min_cos", "h_sin", "h_cos", "dow_sin", "dow_cos"]
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+ )
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+
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+ def fourier_from_index_day(idx) -> TimeSeries:
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+ dow = idx.dayofweek.to_numpy()
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+ X = np.vstack([
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+ np.sin(2*np.pi*dow/7.0),
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+ np.cos(2*np.pi*dow/7.0),
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+ ]).T
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+ return TimeSeries.from_times_and_values(idx, X, columns=["dow_sin","dow_cos"])
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+
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+ def fourier_from_index(idx) -> TimeSeries:
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+ hour = idx.hour.to_numpy()
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+ dow = idx.dayofweek.to_numpy()
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+ X = np.vstack([
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+ np.sin(2*np.pi*hour/24.0),
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+ np.cos(2*np.pi*hour/24.0),
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+ np.sin(2*np.pi*dow/7.0),
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+ np.cos(2*np.pi*dow/7.0),
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+ ]).T
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+ return TimeSeries.from_times_and_values(idx, X, columns=["h_sin","h_cos","dow_sin","dow_cos"])
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+
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+ def dim_indicator_norm(idx, D: int) -> TimeSeries:
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+ v = (np.arange(D, dtype=np.float32) / (D-1)).astype(np.float32) # 0..1
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+ X = np.tile(v, (len(idx), 1))
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+ cols = [f"dim_id_{i}" for i in range(D)]
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+ return TimeSeries.from_times_and_values(idx, X, columns=cols)
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+
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+ def build_past_covs_552(ts_sc: TimeSeries, lags=(1,24,168), fourier_func=fourier_from_index_min) -> TimeSeries:
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+ lag_covs = lag_covs_from_scaled_target(ts_sc, lags)
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+ idx = lag_covs.time_index
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+ time_covs = fourier_func(idx)
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+ dim_covs = dim_indicator_norm(idx, ts_sc.width)
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+ return concatenate([lag_covs, dim_covs, time_covs], axis=1)
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+
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+ def ts_upto(ts, end_time):
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+ if hasattr(ts, "slice_end"):
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+ return ts.slice_end(end_time)
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+ if hasattr(ts, "drop_after"):
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+ return ts.drop_after(end_time)
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+ if hasattr(ts, "split_after"):
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+ return ts.split_after(end_time)[0]
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+ return ts.slice(ts.start_time(), end_time)
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+
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+ def gluon_to_wide_df(dataset):
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+ series_list = []
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+
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+ for i, entry in enumerate(dataset):
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+ idx = pd.date_range(
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+ start=entry["start"].to_timestamp(),
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+ periods=len(entry["target"]),
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+ freq=entry["start"].freqstr
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+ )
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+ series = pd.Series(entry["target"], index=idx, name=f"node_{i}")
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+ series_list.append(series)
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+
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+ return pd.concat(series_list, axis=1)
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+
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+ def get_7_test_windows(dataset, num_nodes=137):
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+ all_series = []
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+
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+ for entry in dataset:
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+ idx = pd.date_range(
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+ start=entry["start"].to_timestamp(),
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+ periods=len(entry["target"]),
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+ freq=entry["start"].freqstr
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+ )
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+ all_series.append(pd.Series(entry["target"], index=idx))
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+
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+ num_windows = len(all_series) // num_nodes
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+ windows = []
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+
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+ for w in range(num_windows):
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+ start_idx = w * num_nodes
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+ end_idx = (w + 1) * num_nodes
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+ window_df = pd.concat(all_series[start_idx:end_idx], axis=1)
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+ window_df.columns = [f"node_{i}" for i in range(num_nodes)]
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+ windows.append(window_df)
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+
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+ return windows, all_series
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+
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+ def load_and_prepare_data(dataset_name: str,
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+ lags: Tuple,
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+ fourier_func_dict: dict):
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+
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+ ds = get_dataset(dataset_name, regenerate=False)
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+ freq = ds.metadata.freq
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+ offset = to_offset(freq)
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+ granularity = norm_freq_str(offset.name)
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+
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+ train_list = list(ds.train)
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+ test_list = list(ds.test)
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+ num_test_dates = len(test_list) // len(train_list)
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+
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+ target_dim = int(ds.metadata.feat_static_cat[0].cardinality)
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+ train_grouper = MultivariateGrouper(max_target_dim=target_dim)
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+ test_grouper = MultivariateGrouper(num_test_dates=num_test_dates, max_target_dim=target_dim)
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+
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+ train_mv_items = list(train_grouper(train_list))
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+
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+ if dataset_name == 'kdd_cup_2018_without_missing':
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+ for i in range(len(test_list)):
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+ if len(test_list[i]['target']) == 10898:
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+ test_list[i]['target'] = np.concatenate(
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+ (test_list[i]['target'], np.zeros(8)), axis=0)
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+ dataset_test = test_grouper(test_list)
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+ else:
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+ dataset_test = test_grouper(test_list)
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+
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+ test_mv_items = list(dataset_test)
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+
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+ train_ts = gluonts_item_to_darts_mv(train_mv_items[0], freq)
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+ test_ts_list = [gluonts_item_to_darts_mv(it, freq) for it in test_mv_items]
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+
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+ y_scaler = Scaler()
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+ train_y_sc = y_scaler.fit_transform(train_ts)
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+
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+ test_windows, all_series = get_7_test_windows(test_list, num_nodes=target_dim)
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+
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+ fourier_func = fourier_func_dict.get(dataset_name, fourier_from_index)
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+ train_pc = build_past_covs_552(train_y_sc, lags=lags, fourier_func=fourier_func)
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+
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+ train_y_sc = train_y_sc.slice_intersect(train_pc)
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+ train_pc = train_pc.slice_intersect(train_y_sc)
178
+
179
+ return {
180
+ 'scaler': y_scaler, 'train_ts': train_ts, 'train_y_sc': train_y_sc,
181
+ 'test_ts_list': test_ts_list, 'test_windows': test_windows,
182
+ 'all_series': all_series, 'train_pc': train_pc, 'freq': granularity,
183
+ 'fourier_func': fourier_func
184
+ }
185
+
186
+ FOURIER_DICT = {
187
+ 'solar_nips': fourier_from_index,
188
+ 'wiki2000_nips': fourier_from_index_day,
189
+ 'electricity_nips': fourier_from_index,
190
+ 'taxi_30min': fourier_from_index_min,
191
+ 'kdd_cup_2018_without_missing': fourier_from_index,
192
+ 'traffic_nips': fourier_from_index
193
+ }
@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
1
+ import numpy as np
2
+ import pandas as pd
3
+ import torch
4
+ from gluonts.model.forecast import SampleForecast
5
+ from gluonts.evaluation import MultivariateEvaluator
6
+ from darts import TimeSeries
7
+
8
+ from genformer.data import ts_upto, build_past_covs_552
9
+
10
+ def to_gluonts_multivariate_inputs(
11
+ preds: np.ndarray,
12
+ targets: np.ndarray,
13
+ start_dates,
14
+ freq: str = "H",
15
+ item_ids=None,
16
+ past_targets: np.ndarray | None = None,
17
+ dtype=np.float32,
18
+ ):
19
+ preds = np.asarray(preds, dtype=dtype)
20
+ targets = np.asarray(targets, dtype=dtype)
21
+
22
+ B, N, T, D = preds.shape
23
+
24
+ if isinstance(start_dates, (str, pd.Timestamp, pd.Period)) or not hasattr(start_dates, "__len__"):
25
+ start_dates = [start_dates] * B
26
+
27
+ if item_ids is None:
28
+ item_ids = [f"item_{i}" for i in range(B)]
29
+
30
+ targets_list = []
31
+ forecasts_list = []
32
+
33
+ columns = list(range(D))
34
+
35
+ for i in range(B):
36
+ start_period = pd.Period(start_dates[i], freq=freq)
37
+ forecast = SampleForecast(
38
+ samples=preds[i],
39
+ start_date=start_period,
40
+ item_id=item_ids[i],
41
+ )
42
+ forecasts_list.append(forecast)
43
+
44
+ if past_targets is None:
45
+ target_index = pd.period_range(start=start_period, periods=T, freq=freq)
46
+ target_values = targets[i]
47
+ else:
48
+ H = past_targets.shape[1]
49
+ target_index = pd.period_range(start=start_period - H, periods=H + T, freq=freq)
50
+ target_values = np.concatenate([past_targets[i], targets[i]], axis=0)
51
+
52
+ target_df = pd.DataFrame(target_values, index=target_index, columns=columns)
53
+ targets_list.append(target_df)
54
+
55
+ return targets_list, forecasts_list
56
+
57
+ def crps(preds, targets, quantiles=(np.arange(20) / 20.0)[1:]):
58
+ x = np.quantile(preds, quantiles, axis=1, method="nearest")
59
+ quantiles = np.expand_dims(quantiles, axis=list(range(1, len(preds.shape))))
60
+ loss = 2 * np.sum(np.abs((x - targets) * ((targets <= x) - quantiles)), axis=2)
61
+ return loss.mean() / np.abs(targets).sum(axis=1).mean()
62
+
63
+ def crps_sum(preds, targets, quantiles=(np.arange(20) / 20.0)[1:], frequency='D'):
64
+ preds_sum = preds.sum(axis=-1)
65
+ targets_sum = targets.sum(axis=-1)
66
+ return crps(preds_sum, targets_sum, quantiles=quantiles)
67
+
68
+ def get_metric_and_prediction(model, test_windows, y_scaler, pred_len=24, lags=(1, 24, 168), num_samples=100, seed=42, std=None, fourier_func=None, is_clip=False, frequency='D'):
69
+ all_forecasts = []
70
+ all_targets = []
71
+ to_save_forecast = []
72
+ to_save_targets = []
73
+
74
+ for i, window_df in enumerate(test_windows):
75
+ full_ts = TimeSeries.from_dataframe(window_df).astype(np.float32)
76
+ full_sc = y_scaler.transform(full_ts).astype(np.float32)
77
+ full_pc = build_past_covs_552(full_sc, lags=lags, fourier_func=fourier_func).astype(np.float32)
78
+
79
+ full_sc = full_sc.slice_intersect(full_pc)
80
+ full_ts = full_ts.slice_intersect(full_sc)
81
+ full_pc = full_pc.slice_intersect(full_sc)
82
+
83
+ past_true_sc = full_sc[:-pred_len]
84
+ gt_future = full_ts[-pred_len:]
85
+
86
+ forecast_start = gt_future.start_time()
87
+ pc_past = ts_upto(full_pc, forecast_start)
88
+
89
+ model.model.encoder[0].reset_seed(seed)
90
+ if std is not None:
91
+ model.model.encoder[0].reset_std(std)
92
+
93
+ fc_sc = model.predict(
94
+ n=pred_len,
95
+ series=past_true_sc,
96
+ past_covariates=pc_past,
97
+ num_samples=num_samples,
98
+ verbose=False,
99
+ random_state=1456445
100
+ )
101
+
102
+ fc = y_scaler.inverse_transform(fc_sc)
103
+ if is_clip:
104
+ fc = fc.with_values(np.clip(fc.all_values(), a_min=0, a_max=None))
105
+
106
+ to_save_forecast.append(fc)
107
+ to_save_targets.append(gt_future)
108
+
109
+ all_forecasts.append(fc.all_values(copy=False))
110
+ all_targets.append(gt_future.all_values(copy=False))
111
+
112
+ stacked_forecasts = np.stack(all_forecasts, axis=0)
113
+ preds_reshaped = np.transpose(stacked_forecasts, (0, 3, 1, 2))
114
+
115
+ stacked_targets = np.stack(all_targets, axis=0)
116
+ targets_reshaped = np.squeeze(stacked_targets, axis=-1)
117
+
118
+ target_list , forecast_list = to_gluonts_multivariate_inputs(preds_reshaped, targets_reshaped, pd.Timestamp(gt_future.start_time()), freq=frequency)
119
+
120
+ evaluator = MultivariateEvaluator(quantiles=(np.arange(20) / 20.0)[1:], target_agg_funcs={'sum': np.sum})
121
+ agg_metric, item_metrics = evaluator(target_list, forecast_list)
122
+
123
+ print(f"======= Evaluation metrics for models =======")
124
+ print("CRPS:", agg_metric["mean_wQuantileLoss"])
125
+ print("ND:", agg_metric["ND"])
126
+ print("NRMSE:", agg_metric["NRMSE"])
127
+ print("")
128
+ print("CRPS-Sum:", agg_metric["m_sum_mean_wQuantileLoss"])
129
+ print("ND-Sum:", agg_metric["m_sum_ND"])
130
+ print("NRMSE-Sum:", agg_metric["m_sum_NRMSE"])
131
+ crps_ours = crps_sum(preds_reshaped, targets_reshaped)
132
+ print("CRPS Ours:", crps_ours)
133
+
134
+ return agg_metric["m_sum_mean_wQuantileLoss"], agg_metric["m_sum_ND"], agg_metric["m_sum_NRMSE"], crps_ours, to_save_forecast, to_save_targets
135
+
136
+ def energy_score_loss(samples: torch.Tensor, target: torch.Tensor) -> torch.Tensor:
137
+ M = samples.size(0)
138
+ dist_to_target = torch.linalg.norm(samples - target.unsqueeze(0), dim=-1).mean(0)
139
+ s = samples.reshape(M, -1, samples.size(-1))
140
+ diff = s.unsqueeze(1) - s.unsqueeze(0)
141
+ pairwise_dist = torch.linalg.norm(diff, dim=-1).mean(dim=(0, 1))
142
+ dist_samples = pairwise_dist.view(target.size(0), target.size(1))
143
+ loss = dist_to_target - 0.5 * dist_samples
144
+ return loss.mean()