forecastscope 0.1.0__tar.gz

forecastscope-0.1.0/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+# Changelog
+
+## 0.01.000 - unreleased
+
+- Extract finite-prefix forecasting, five-expert combinations and sequence
+  diagnostics with explicit originating source bindings.
+- Add strict public request and forecast-output boundaries.
+- Preserve numerical adversarial controls; product adoption remains pending.

forecastscope-0.1.0/LICENSE

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+MIT License
+
+Copyright (c) 2026 Felipe Santibanez-Leal
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+SOFTWARE.

forecastscope-0.1.0/MANIFEST.in

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+include VERSION CHANGELOG.md requirements-test.txt
+recursive-include docs *.md *.json
+recursive-include tools *.py

forecastscope-0.1.0/PKG-INFO

@@ -0,0 +1,85 @@
+Metadata-Version: 2.4
+Name: forecastscope
+Version: 0.1.0
+Summary: Finite-prefix forecasting, temporal forecast combinations and sequence diagnostics.
+Author: Felipe Santibáñez-Leal
+License-Expression: MIT
+Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/fsantibanezleal/CAOS_ForecastScope
+Project-URL: Issues, https://github.com/fsantibanezleal/CAOS_ForecastScope/issues
+Requires-Python: >=3.11
+Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
+License-File: LICENSE
+Requires-Dist: numpy<3,>=2.0
+Provides-Extra: diagnostics
+Requires-Dist: scipy<2,>=1.15; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: pandas<4,>=2.3; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: statsmodels<0.15,>=0.14.6; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: arch<9,>=8; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: ruptures<2,>=1.1.10; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: EMD-signal<2,>=1.9; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: PyWavelets<2,>=1.8; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: antropy<0.3,>=0.2.2; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: nolds==0.6.3; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: hurst==0.0.5; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: MFDFA==0.4.3; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: pycatch22<0.5,>=0.4.5; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: stumpy<2,>=1.14.1; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: scikit-learn<2,>=1.9; extra == "diagnostics"
+Requires-Dist: coreforecast<0.1,>=0.0.17; extra == "diagnostics"
+Provides-Extra: dev
+Requires-Dist: pytest>=8; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: ruff<0.17,>=0.15; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: build; extra == "dev"
+Requires-Dist: twine; extra == "dev"
+Dynamic: license-file
+
+# forecastscope
+
+Finite-prefix forecasts, temporal combinations of reference experts, and sequence
+diagnostics in a reusable Python library. The core requires NumPy. Diagnostic
+implementations use optional scientific packages through `forecastscope.diagnostics`.
+
+Release availability is recorded on [PyPI](https://pypi.org/project/forecastscope/)
+and [GitHub](https://github.com/fsantibanezleal/CAOS_ForecastScope/releases).
+Application adoption is a separate step. The extraction preserves numerical
+equations while adding strict public request and output validation, lint
+normalization and warnings for unavailable optional diagnostics. It makes no new forecast
+accuracy, calibration, chaos-identification or operational-performance claim.
+
+```python
+import numpy as np
+from forecastscope import combine, forecast
+
+history = 20 + np.tile([1., 4., 2., 3.], 30)
+columns = forecast("HoltWinters", history, seasonality=4, horizon=8)
+allocation = combine("ValidationMix", history, seasonality=4, horizon=8)
+print(columns.shape, allocation.weights, allocation.origins)
+```
+
+The caller supplies a contiguous observed history; raw arrays contain no timestamps,
+so contiguity itself is a caller precondition. Future targets belong to the caller's evaluation
+protocol. NaNs, infinite values, fractional horizons, invalid seasonal lags and
+unsupported probability grids are refused by the public entry points. The reference kernels preserve their documented short-history policies, including
+Holt fallback when additive seasonal smoothing lacks two cycles or has lag one.
+Combination experts can consequently coincide on a nonseasonal input. The five
+reference experts use approximate Gaussian residual intervals; ordered columns do
+not establish calibration. Temporal validation filters an outer-prefix-defined
+historical grid, and does not reconstruct the exact grid a historical service
+would have proposed at every earlier date.
+
+The fixed contextual combination has an unfavorable comparison with its matching
+recency control in its original development study. Later validation-selected
+combinations have bounded point-score improvements on specified external collections,
+with stronger automatic-method and interval-score comparisons retained. The package
+does not turn those studies into a general superiority claim.
+
+For diagnostics, install the `diagnostics` extra and import the topic module, for
+example `forecastscope.diagnostics.sequence.matrix_profile`. Diagnostics describe
+their supplied sequence and can be retrospective. They must not be computed on a
+future block and then treated as prefix-only model-selection inputs.
+
+The source origin and exact input hashes are recorded in
+[docs/extraction-source.json](docs/extraction-source.json). The originating software
+is MIT licensed; its copyright and licence remain in this repository. Application
+cases, generator seeds, source CSVs, artifact schemas, pipeline stages and web assets
+are outside this library. See [the extraction boundary](docs/boundary.md).

forecastscope-0.1.0/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+# forecastscope
+
+Finite-prefix forecasts, temporal combinations of reference experts, and sequence
+diagnostics in a reusable Python library. The core requires NumPy. Diagnostic
+implementations use optional scientific packages through `forecastscope.diagnostics`.
+
+Release availability is recorded on [PyPI](https://pypi.org/project/forecastscope/)
+and [GitHub](https://github.com/fsantibanezleal/CAOS_ForecastScope/releases).
+Application adoption is a separate step. The extraction preserves numerical
+equations while adding strict public request and output validation, lint
+normalization and warnings for unavailable optional diagnostics. It makes no new forecast
+accuracy, calibration, chaos-identification or operational-performance claim.
+
+```python
+import numpy as np
+from forecastscope import combine, forecast
+
+history = 20 + np.tile([1., 4., 2., 3.], 30)
+columns = forecast("HoltWinters", history, seasonality=4, horizon=8)
+allocation = combine("ValidationMix", history, seasonality=4, horizon=8)
+print(columns.shape, allocation.weights, allocation.origins)
+```
+
+The caller supplies a contiguous observed history; raw arrays contain no timestamps,
+so contiguity itself is a caller precondition. Future targets belong to the caller's evaluation
+protocol. NaNs, infinite values, fractional horizons, invalid seasonal lags and
+unsupported probability grids are refused by the public entry points. The reference kernels preserve their documented short-history policies, including
+Holt fallback when additive seasonal smoothing lacks two cycles or has lag one.
+Combination experts can consequently coincide on a nonseasonal input. The five
+reference experts use approximate Gaussian residual intervals; ordered columns do
+not establish calibration. Temporal validation filters an outer-prefix-defined
+historical grid, and does not reconstruct the exact grid a historical service
+would have proposed at every earlier date.
+
+The fixed contextual combination has an unfavorable comparison with its matching
+recency control in its original development study. Later validation-selected
+combinations have bounded point-score improvements on specified external collections,
+with stronger automatic-method and interval-score comparisons retained. The package
+does not turn those studies into a general superiority claim.
+
+For diagnostics, install the `diagnostics` extra and import the topic module, for
+example `forecastscope.diagnostics.sequence.matrix_profile`. Diagnostics describe
+their supplied sequence and can be retrospective. They must not be computed on a
+future block and then treated as prefix-only model-selection inputs.
+
+The source origin and exact input hashes are recorded in
+[docs/extraction-source.json](docs/extraction-source.json). The originating software
+is MIT licensed; its copyright and licence remain in this repository. Application
+cases, generator seeds, source CSVs, artifact schemas, pipeline stages and web assets
+are outside this library. See [the extraction boundary](docs/boundary.md).

forecastscope-0.1.0/VERSION

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+0.01.000

forecastscope-0.1.0/docs/boundary.md

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+# Extraction boundary
+
+The reusable domain is finite-prefix forecasting, contextual combination and
+sequence diagnostics. These procedures accept numerical histories and explicit
+settings, and produce numerical results. They do not acquire a case, select a
+customer, publish a manuscript or promote an artifact candidate.
+
+The initial source moves preserve the originating kernels and their mathematical
+adversarial tests. The application-specific forecast result dependency is replaced
+with an independent five-field result type. Import relocation does not establish
+parity by itself: core controls, diagnostic controls, installed-wheel execution
+and comparison against the source implementation are separate checks.
+
+The stable top-level calls validate complete finite histories, integer horizon
+and seasonality, probability order, output shape and finite ordered forecast
+columns. Lower-level extracted kernels retain historical numerical conventions,
+including finite parameter grids and degeneracy floors. Those conventions are
+documented rather than silently redefined during extraction. A later method
+improvement requires a separately identified experiment and release.
+
+ChronoScope retains source manifests, source reconstruction, case generators,
+runtime/checkpoint policy, rendering and admission. Corpus-study partition policy
+and its fixed model-selection protocol also remain application responsibilities.
+They cannot become library defaults merely by copying a research script.
+
+The product's historical evidence remains bound to the source that produced it.
+Migration must archive the exact old source inputs and bind fresh executions to
+the published library revision. Updating a recorded historical source hash to
+hide a migration is forbidden. A successful package release alone does not close
+the application's package-boundary requirement: it must consume that release,
+remove its private distribution declaration and pass its own reproduction gates.

forecastscope-0.1.0/docs/extraction-source.json

@@ -0,0 +1,183 @@
+{
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+  "licence": "MIT",
+  "scope": "Initial extraction candidate; not a published dependency or product migration",
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+}

forecastscope-0.1.0/docs/product-parity.json

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+{
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+      "exact_method_comparisons": 10
+    },
+    {
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+    },
+    {
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+      "history_length": 226,
+      "horizon": 14,
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+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "HETV_garch",
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+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "REAL_electricity",
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+    {
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+      "history_length": 456,
+      "horizon": 24,
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+      "exact_method_comparisons": 10
+    },
+    {
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+      "history_length": 188,
+      "horizon": 12,
+      "seasonality": 1,
+      "exact_method_comparisons": 10
+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "SEAS_hourly",
+      "history_sha256": "1f7fb34587e6e19742a4e0c392edbd7f24b6752e1b573d06bbcca6f340fb50a9",
+      "history_length": 456,
+      "horizon": 24,
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+      "exact_method_comparisons": 10
+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "TRND_seasonal",
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+      "horizon": 12,
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+      "exact_method_comparisons": 10
+    }
+  ],
+  "total_exact_comparisons": 150,
+  "scope": "Full-precision quantile matrices, allocation weights and historical origins; no new accuracy trial",
+  "runtime": {
+    "python": "3.12.10",
+    "numpy": "2.5.4"
+  }
+}

forecastscope-0.1.0/docs/test-environment.json

@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+{
+  "python": "3.12.10",
+  "platform_class": "Windows x86_64",
+  "scientific_dependencies": {
+    "numpy": "2.5.4",
+    "pandas": "3.1.1",
+    "scipy": "1.18.1",
+    "statsmodels": "0.14.6",
+    "arch": "8.0.0",
+    "EMD-signal": "1.10.0",
+    "PyWavelets": "1.10.0",
+    "antropy": "0.2.3",
+    "nolds": "0.6.3",
+    "hurst": "0.0.5",
+    "MFDFA": "0.4.3",
+    "pycatch22": "0.4.5",
+    "stumpy": "1.14.1",
+    "scikit-learn": "1.9.1",
+    "coreforecast": "0.0.20",
+    "numba": "0.68.1"
+  },
+  "scope": "Local diagnostic validation environment; the consuming product retains its own exact pins"
+}

forecastscope-0.1.0/docs/validation.json

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+{
+  "state": "validated-local-candidate; PyPI publication and product adoption pending",
+  "version": "0.1.0",
+  "checks": [
+    {
+      "check": "source core controls",
+      "passed": 31,
+      "python": "3.13.14",
+      "numpy": "2.4.6"
+    },
+    {
+      "check": "complete installed-wheel diagnostic and core suite",
+      "passed": 128,
+      "warnings_retained": 35,
+      "python": "3.12.10",
+      "numpy": "2.5.4"
+    },
+    {
+      "check": "isolated installed wheel without SciPy or product package",
+      "passed": 31,
+      "python": "3.12.10"
+    },
+    {
+      "check": "exact product forecast and combination comparisons",
+      "passed": 150,
+      "cases": 15
+    },
+    {
+      "check": "wheel and sdist metadata",
+      "state": "pass"
+    },
+    {
+      "check": "declared dependencies",
+      "state": "no broken requirements"
+    },
+    {
+      "check": "Ruff current source tests and parity tooling",
+      "state": "pass"
+    }
+  ],
+  "retained_failures": [
+    {
+      "check": "initial optional diagnostic suite",
+      "passed": 125,
+      "failed": 1,
+      "reason": "Missing coreforecast declaration for Guerrero seasonal Box-Cox; dependency added and complete suite rerun"
+    },
+    {
+      "check": "first current-Ruff check",
+      "reason": "New lint rules found import/order/normalization and silent optional-error handling; corrected, no rules disabled"
+    }
+  ],
+  "limits": [
+    "These are numerical and packaging controls, not a new forecasting accuracy trial",
+    "Linux CI, PyPI publication, app migration and its own release gates are separate"
+  ]
+}

forecastscope-0.1.0/pyproject.toml

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+[build-system]
+requires = ["setuptools>=77", "wheel"]
+build-backend = "setuptools.build_meta"
+
+[project]
+name = "forecastscope"
+version = "0.1.0"
+description = "Finite-prefix forecasting, temporal forecast combinations and sequence diagnostics."
+readme = "README.md"
+requires-python = ">=3.11"
+license = "MIT"
+authors = [{name = "Felipe Santibáñez-Leal"}]
+dependencies = ["numpy>=2.0,<3"]
+
+[project.optional-dependencies]
+diagnostics = [
+  "scipy>=1.15,<2", "pandas>=2.3,<4", "statsmodels>=0.14.6,<0.15", "arch>=8,<9",
+  "ruptures>=1.1.10,<2", "EMD-signal>=1.9,<2", "PyWavelets>=1.8,<2",
+  "antropy>=0.2.2,<0.3", "nolds==0.6.3", "hurst==0.0.5", "MFDFA==0.4.3",
+  "pycatch22>=0.4.5,<0.5", "stumpy>=1.14.1,<2", "scikit-learn>=1.9,<2",
+  "coreforecast>=0.0.17,<0.1",
+]
+dev = ["pytest>=8", "ruff>=0.15,<0.17", "build", "twine"]
+
+[project.urls]
+Repository = "https://github.com/fsantibanezleal/CAOS_ForecastScope"
+Issues = "https://github.com/fsantibanezleal/CAOS_ForecastScope/issues"
+
+[tool.setuptools.packages.find]
+where = ["src"]
+
+[tool.pytest.ini_options]
+testpaths = ["tests"]
+addopts = "-q"
+
+[tool.ruff]
+line-length = 110
+target-version = "py311"
+
+[tool.ruff.lint]
+ignore = ["E741"]